Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Mike Gianella

Chat: Mike Gianella

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Monday August 01, 2016 4:00 PM ET chat session with Mike Gianella.

It's the TRADE DEADLINE SPECIAL with Mike Gianella, our Senior Fantasy Writer.

Mike Gianella: It's been a pretty chaotic last 45 minutes or so. Should be a fun chat.

caseyj15 (Medford, OR): Is Moncada have the tools move to third until Pedroia is done in 3-4 years at 2B?

Mike Gianella: Yes. While shifting to any new position isn't as "automatic" as some casual observers suggest, Yoan Moncada would likely be fine at third base until Dustin Pedroia was done there.

Mike C (Endwell): Hey Mike! I just traded for Carson Fulmer in my dynasty fantasy league. From all of my research I see that he has a major walk issue. Is that going to be the thing that prevents him from becoming the elite starter he was drafted to be? Does he wind up staying in the rotation long term?

Mike Gianella: It's always hard to say if something like this can be taught or coached "out" of a player, but Fulmer's command makes it likely to me that he is more of a very good or elite reliever than a quality starting pitcher. On the other hand, it's possible that he sticks in the rotation at some point and the White Sox certainly will try this with him at some point.

Marco (My Older Brother's Shadow): I've had a very bad season. My older brother is always better at fantasy baseball then I am. Who can I add to my league worst minor league team that nobody has any information about? Help me out!

Mike Gianella: Everyone has information about everyone nowadays so it is very difficult to answer that question without giving you a name that everyone knows. Jose Azocar is a prospect whose stock has jumped this year, is still in the low minors, and might be available in some leagues.

J.B. (Las Vegas): In a deep NL-only league, if you had to pick one for next year of the "out of nowhere" Brewer starting pitchers -- would you bet on Junior Guerra or Zach Davies? Thanks, J.B.

Mike Gianella: Guerra has more of a ceiling despite his advanced age. I lean him, but Davies is pretty good too.

Steve (Baltimore): Who has more value going forward in a holds league: Papelbon or Shawn Kelley?

Mike Gianella: I'll guess Kelley, just because I think it's going to take a week or two for Papelbon to pitch some lower leverage innings and get back to where he was. Dusty Baker doesn't seem to trust him at the moment.

g4baseball (fair oaks ca): What is going on with Conforto? His numbers are way down, he is sitting a lot.

Mike Gianella: I have no inside information but suspect that his wrist might be bothering him based on his swing.

Buster (Trade Deadline): Can you rank the following ROS: Trey Turner, Espinosa, B Lawrie & Baez? Thanks

Mike Gianella: ROS I'd go Espinosa, Baez, Turner, and Lawrie.

Jeb (IC): What do you think of the Melancon trade from the Pirates prospective?

Mike Gianella: I like the deal for the Pirates. Melancon was going to walk and while it's a downgrade in the bullpen for 2016 they added a future bullpen arm who could eventually be comparable to Melancon and an intriguing prospect. I understand why contending teams are paying so much for relief arms, but when you're a team like the Pirates with limited financial resources, this is a good way to get prospects without damaging your core.

Brady (MN): What range of prospect would I be looking to acquire if I was going to trade Jose Bautista?

Mike Gianella: I'd try for a second-tier guy, someone outside the Top 25 but between 26-50.

Matt (WI): In a dynasty league with OPS, do you value Kyle Seager or Josh Donaldson more?

Mike Gianella: Seager's a little younger but I think I still have to go with Donaldson here.

Ankiel66 (Olympia): Who closes for Milwaukee now that they've traded their entire bullpen?

Mike Gianella: My guess is Tyler Thornburg.

Mason (Texas): Thoughts on this trade in a 12 team keeper league: I give up Duvall and A Gonz for Freeman? Looking for a younger upgrade at 1B for the next several years.

Mike Gianella: Good idea at first base, but even though it's unlikely Duvall repeats next year that feels heavy to me.

JoshC77 (Dreaming of the Reds making good trades): Seriously? What the heck are the Reds doing trading a legit 30 HR guy (with team control) like Bruce for a utility IF with strikeout issues and some flier on a P in the Appy League? The is two players dumped (Chapman last offseason and now Bruce) with some truly craptastic returns.

Mike Gianella: It's funny, most of the hate I've seen about this trade on social media has been directed at the Mets. Herrera is having a down year but he's still young and has an opportunity to at least be a capable starting second baseman. The other pieces in the deal aren't great for the Reds but I suspect there's some skepticism about Bruce because of his defense and health issues in prior seasons. I can see where you're coming from, although the Chapman trade was a case of the Reds not wanting to deal with negative PR at the peak of the news cycle on Chapman's DV incident.

Dan (Philly): Am I crazy to not own Lourdes Gourriel Jr, in my dynasty league?

Mike Gianella: You're not crazy, but you should pick him up.

t0mmyo (Philly): Why are the Phillies not moving anyone?

Mike Gianella: It's possible that they made a trade and it hasn't been reported as I type this at around 4:30 pm ET, but the market was quiet. My guess is that they didn't get the prospects they wanted for Jeremy Hellickson and there wasn't as much interest in Jeanmar Gomez as you might expect in a reliever crazy market. The Phillies are probably going to QO Hellickson with the idea that they can either trade him next year if he accepts and will get a draft pick if he signs somewhere else.

Steve (Baltimore): Is it safe to drop either Sonny Gray or Papelbon in a 14-team roto league where neither player can be held onto for next year?

Mike Gianella: It's fine to drop both. Papelbon would be my first choice out of those two, even in a league that uses holds.

Tony (Chicago): Lourdes Gourriel Jr - a must own in dynasty leagues?

Mike Gianella: Yes.

Todd (Green Haven): Would you drop Papelbon in a holds league where I have a roster crunch? Or do you think he becomes the set-up guy and doesn't burn the house down?

Mike Gianella: I'd drop him. Too much uncertainly between him and Kelly.

Steve (Baltimore): Is there any hope for Sonny Gray to be playable this season? How close is he to droppable?

Mike Gianella: Not much. You can drop him in 14-team mixed and shallower.

Mason (Texas): Would you give up Pollock and Kimbrel in a keeper league to acquire Kyle Seager? I would have Blackmon as my CF going forward.

Mike Gianella: In a keeper I don't think you should have to give up this much. I'd want to include a lesser outfielder in terms of future value.

Kenny (Pasadena): What do you make of Hernan Perez?

Mike Gianella: I'm shocked by all the home runs but the park is good for that and perhaps he can be a 10 home run, 25 steal middle infielder going forward. It's more likely that he slips next year but a future that exceeds expectations as a second division regular is well within his grasp.

hamsterjockey (Minnesota): Brian Dozier or Brandon Crawford ROS?

Mike Gianella: Depends on your needs. In a vacuum I want Crawford but if you need the power and the batting average isn't a big concern go Dozier.

dylanrox (New Orleans): My depth SP in a 14 team points lg are DeSclafani Joe Ross Hammel and Odorizzi. Any reason to consider dropping one of them for Drew Smyly or Brandon McCarthy? Thanks.

Mike Gianella: You're OK as is. I could see a case for dropping Ross for McCarthy in this format and riding the hot hand if you wanted to.

dylanrox (New Orleans ): In 14 team points lg i opted to drop Cody Allen on the Miller news for Edwin Diaz. Scoring is: W-10 points SV-8 HOLD-4 K-2 Iglesias Dull Reed Rondon Bedrosian and now Allen are on the wire. Hold Diaz or make a move?

Mike Gianella: Take a shot on Bedrosian.

dylanrox (New Orleans ): Oh by the way Giles is also available along with Dull Bedrosian Reed Allen Iglesias.

Mike Gianella: Still Bedrosian

Jon (Rochester): Thoughts on Jonathan Schoop's season? Do you see him producing like this from now on, or is it just a one-year thing?

Mike Gianella: His numbers are almost identical to last year's so Schoop has been doing this for a year and a half. He should at least be able to maintain this level of solid middle infield power with a decent batting average. So, yes, I'd say he's legit.

dylanrox (New Orleans ): Any chance that Hernan Perez is a better hold ROS than Saunders? Hard to beat batting cleanup for the Jays no?

Mike Gianella: There's always a chance but I doubt it.

RussHaigis (Saint Diego): Hello Mike, I've been reading a lot about Isan Diaz lately due to his hot streak for the Brewers. Is he set to become a star in MLB or is he just a talented prospect on a hot streak?

Mike Gianella: More likely the latter, but he can be a very solid player if everything breaks.

Rick (Chicago): Will Susac end up as Brewer's Starting Catcher and does he have any value long term?

Mike Gianella: It looks like he'll go to Triple-A for now. He has some value down the road, but is a realistic target in two catcher leagues.

DanDaMan (Vineyard): Hey Mike, besides Martin, who would be a few of your 2nd half trade targets? Thanks

Mike Gianella: Adam Wainwright has been quietly solid after a bad April and should be good down the stretch. Jose Bautista has moved down a lot of people's lists after a poor first half and injury but could still be solid for the last eight weeks. Neil Walker is done with his slump. I'm sure your league has noticed but it someone hasn't I'd pounce.

Rick (Chicago): Do you see Dilson Herrera the starting 2B for the Reds in 2017?

Mike Gianella: Perhaps in the second half. He slipped this year and while he has long term value he isn't someone the Reds should rush up to the majors.

Ryan (Portland): How good can Lourdes Gourriel JR BE?

Mike Gianella: If you will it, it is no dream.

Ryan (US): What are your thoughts on Tyler Mahle?

Mike Gianella: Solid pitcher, throws lots of pitches for strikes, not a future ace but could be a pretty solid mid-level starter long term.

Rick (Chicago): Any thoughts how the Met's Outfield shakes out. No center fielder and it seems like Conforto mainly to the bench. Doesn't make a lot of sense, does it?

Mike Gianella: Likely going to be Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, and Yoenis Cespedes with Granderson in center. I suspect Michael Conforto cycles in to give all three rest from time to time. It doesn't make a lot of sense, but the Mets haven't cared about defensive metrics - at least not the public ones that we all see - for the last two years.

Mason (Texas): I see Musgrove has been promoted. I want to pick him up in my dynasty league my options of pitchers to drop are McCarthy, Stroman, Shoemaker, Cody Reed, Tillman. I'm leaning towards McCarthy strictly because of his age

Mike Gianella: I'd drop Chris Tillman but I can see why you might drop McCarthy.

Joesph Jenkins (Edgewater, NY): Does Karns move back into the rotation after coming off the DL now Miley has been traded?

Mike Gianella: Yes

JoshC77 (Still dreaming of good trades by the Reds): Thanks for the reply Mike. I was seriously laughing at the Mets fans on social media. I know that Bruce is a tad one-dimensional, but he isn't exactly a 38 year old Marlon Byrd either. The Mets got a huge steal and the only way it would've been better for them is if they had gotten him for Nimmo (i.e. prime Nori Aoki minus the steals).

Mike Gianella: Bruce is solid offensively but looks like a lot of the Mets other outfielders in terms of his skill set. That being said, having high end depth during the stretch run is a good idea, particularly iven all of the Mets injuries of late.

Jerry (Earth): I hate closers. Just lost Davis in a 16 team league. Have Edwin Diaz helping me with ratios but no saves yet. Took a flyer before deadline and picked up both Ryan Dull & Edubray Ramos but seems neither their respective clubs made deals. Should I move on from these 2 & look to add Hudson or Axford. Need a closer for the home stretch for saves. Your thoughts would be much appreciated. Thanks

Mike Gianella: Jake Barrett and not Hudson is going to close in Arizona and John Axford isn't any closer to the job. Hang on to Edwin Diaz and hope that Steve Cishek blows another save or two this week.

Kenny Graves (Newburgh, NY): Does Aaron Judge get the call after a hot streak now that Beltran is gone?

Mike Gianella: He hasn't played in about a month because of a knee injury, so I suspect the Yankees will be cautious with him the rest of this year now that they have committed to not playing for this year.

Howard (NJ): Lourdes Gourriel Jr ends up where and how good can he be?

Mike Gianella: He will wind up a Yankee and will be as good as his dreams will allow.

Ben (Texas): Where do you see lourdes gourriel jr signing and how good can he be?

Mike Gianella: He will wind up an Astro and will be as good as his dreams will allow.

lipitorkid (california): In a Dynasty league would you rather keep Snell, McCullers, Tyson Ross, or Vince Velasquez?

Mike Gianella: I want Snell

Alexei (At Work): Zunino or Susac rest of season & long term?

Mike Gianella: I'll take Zunino this year but Susac long term. Zunino has the higher ceiling but is too boom or bust for my taste.

brucegilsen (Washington, DC): Playing for 2017 in old school 4x4 NL only 24/270 league. What are the chances Jake Barrett holds the closer job next year? And who do you figure closes for the Braves?

Mike Gianella: 75 percent chance. In 2017? Probably still Vizcaino, since I don't see him getting through waivers to get traded on a waiver deal.

Rick (Chicago): I just read the Pirates got Drew Hutchison in the Liriano Deal. Think the Pirates can turn him around?

Mike Gianella: I'm skeptical. The Pirates haven't had a lot of luck with their projects since Jim Benedict left, and are toward the bottom of the league in DRA. Great potential, though, and the change in venue helps.

DJ (Dallas): Mike, thanks for the chat!! With the Rangers acquisitions of Beltran, how does the role of Jurickson Profar change?? What do you think of his potential for next year? Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

Mike Gianella: He'll probably continue along in his super utility role, playing nearly every day at a host of positions. Long term, I like him a lot. For 2017 I expect a bump up in power with decent batting average.

JT (KC): In a dynasty league that heavily weights batting average, who do you prefer long term, Winker or Christian Arroyo?

Mike Gianella: Winker.

DynastyOnly (Pa): Getting Duffy can't possibly hurt Adames chances of being the Rays starting SS sometime in 2017 right? I know Duffy is the epitome of a Ray's player, but might this portend a Longoria move to 1B?

Mike Gianella: Adames should still get a shot in 2017. Duffy is more likely to slot in at another position and, yes, it is possible the club either moves Longoria to first or trades him.

Mike Gianella: Thanks for joining me everyone, hope your team wins the World Series!