Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Bret Sayre

Chat: Bret Sayre

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Thursday June 16, 2016 9:00 PM ET chat session with Bret Sayre.

Bret is the managing editor and fantasy manager at BP. Ask him about whatever your heart desires.

Bret Sayre: Hey everyone. I've got about 70 minutes until I'm 10 minutes late to record TINO, so hit me with your best shot.

bradmorgan27 (DC ): What's Mallex Smith's dynasty value like? Should I sell high? could he do .260 5hrs 35sb the next couple years?

Bret Sayre: He definitely has value because of the speed, but I think .260 may be the on the high side for his average and he's more likely to be a bottom of the order hitter. Think Billy Hamilton but without the game-changing stolen base potential.

Jakob (NJ): What percent chance does Josh Bell have of putting up a couple years of hitting .290 with 30 HRs. Or is that just too high on his power? Thanks.

Bret Sayre: A 10.8 percent chance. There's definitely power in his bat, but 30 might be a little aggressive even if everything comes together.

flashtheleather (HELLLOOO BRET WITH ONE T): Josh Ockimey is beasting in A ball. What do you make of this?

Bret Sayre: Not getting too excited at this point. Fine to speculate, but talk to me when he's in Double-A.

Kion (Pride Land): Would you give up Joe Ross to get JP Crawford in a 10 team H2H points league?

Bret Sayre: Absolutely I would.

Eugene (San Francisco): If you were the Cubs and could land Miller and Chapman for Schwarber, would you do it?

Bret Sayre: I'd presume that the Cubs would not do that. And I probably wouldn't either.

snapolit (NJ): Who will have the best career numbers, DeGrom, Matz or Syndergaard?

Bret Sayre: Syndergaard.

Que (Panhandle): Do you think Jaime Schultz can continue his command growth sufficiently to be an above average rotation piece in an Aaron Sanchez-lite kind of way? Thanks for the chat!

Bret Sayre: I don't see it. I think he's a back-end guy at best.

Frank (Brooklyn ): You worried at all about Odor's low BB rate? Will it catch up to him?

Bret Sayre: He's always been aggressive, in just about every sense of the word. That's just part of his game and I wouldn't expect it to change.

Jake (Kalamazoo): Wondering what you think about trading Addison Russell for Profar in a 16-tm mixed league dynasty? I don't need SS eligibility as I have Bogaerts so this is really a straight up bat to bat comparison. Who wins?

Bret Sayre: I'm as much of a Profar supporter as anyone, but I'd still take Russell there.

pinkston (chicago): Is is seriously already Willson time?!

Bret Sayre: Yes! It is!

Greg (NY): With David Wright out for the year, what kind of moves do you think the mets will make?

Bret Sayre: I still think that a Danny Valencia trade makes a whole lot of sense for both the Mets and A's.

Michael (Dallas): BEST prospect nobody is talking about?

Bret Sayre: If I mentioned him here, we'd destroy the fabric of the internet.

Brent (ATL): #1 prospect in 2017? 2018?

Bret Sayre: #1 prospect in 2017 is Yoan Moncada. #1 prospect in 2018 is Brendan Rodgers.

Brian (CT): Thoughts on Mark Vientos?

Bret Sayre: Reports on Vientos' bat seem to vary, but I'd expect him to settle in as a top 5 prep bat in the class of 2017.

Massy (EST): Has Hunter Dozier reestablished himself as a future above average regular (on offense) at 3b? The K's are up at AAA but everything else is looking good to box score scouts. Thanks for the chat!

Bret Sayre: I wouldn't go that far. But back on track to be a major leaguer capable of holding a job? Sure.

Keith Hernandez (Jerry Seinfeld's apartment ): How good could Amed Rosario be in fantasy? I remember seeing "Poor Mans Addison Russell"

Bret Sayre: Has the upside to be a five-category contributor who slides easily into the top-10 at shortstop. Don't sleep on his bat.

Jason (Florida): Can you eat breakfast for dinner?

Bret Sayre: You can and you should. Regularly.

Donny (The Block): Of these OF's: Acuna, Cozens, Christin Stewart and Bader. How would you rank them in terms of future fantasy impact? Thanks.

Bret Sayre: I'd go Acuna, Stewart, Cozens, Bader. That said, I fully expect the Cardinals to make me look stupid.

snapolit (Montclair): Will Conforto be an All Star or just a pretty good player?

Bret Sayre: I'm in the pretty good player camp, but also that's pretty good!

bradmorgan27 (DC): Who'd you rather have: Reynaldo Lopez or Josh Hader?

Bret Sayre: Give me the little guy with the big fastball.

Max (In an Uber): I might be going somewhat obscure with this question & apologize in advance but if you could have 1 of these 1B's, OF's, & SP's in a dynasty league who would you want & why: Josh Ockimey or Ronald Guzman, Brayan Hernandez or Brayan Emery, Christopher Acosta or Roniel Raudes?

Bret Sayre: Guzman over Ockimey. Emery over Hernandez. Raudes over Acosta.

Dan Vogelbach (AAA): Bret! What should owners expect from me who have held onto me for this long? Everyone says it will be in the AL as a DH, but what do you think I can deliver to fantasy owners & where will it happen?

Bret Sayre: Expect greatness, my friend. Expect greatness.

Mike (ATL): Do you see Ryon Healy being the future As 3B or will 1B be permanent?

Bret Sayre: He's going to have a tough time sticking at third, but if he keeps hitting, he'll get the opportunity to try.

bradmorgan27 (DC): How much does Josh Naylor intrigue you? I know he's a fat 1st baseman far away…but 16% k-rate with nice power and even in chipping in 8 of 10 SB

Bret Sayre: The combination of power and contact rate as a teenager in full-season ball is a positive sign. Dude needs to get way better at pranking though.

misterbob (pa): Why are the Nats keeping Turner down at this point----it surely cant be for the .230 hitting Espinosa can it? Makes no sense to me because IMO Turner has nothing left to prove at Triple and should never have been sent back after they brought him up? To me Turner projects to be a .280 50 SB leadoff guy for the next 10 years----and I think he's ready!! What are your thoughts Brett?

Bret Sayre: The problem is that the Nats aren't convinced that the defensive step down from Espinosa to him is worth the offensive upgrade. Not the decision I'd make, but Espinosa isn't as hopeless at the plate as he showed the first two months of the season.

Chris (DC): Dan Vogelbach is having a very good (offensive) season in AAA. How much is his dynasty value suppressed by the possibility of losing first base eligibility?

Bret Sayre: For me, it's almost unnoticeable. Most teams have 1B or DH at their utility spot. This wouldn't change that.

Colin (Austin): What is ceiling of Bregman? Long term SS with Correamoving to 3b?

Bret Sayre: Ceiling might be a .300-plus hitter with 15-20 homers and 15-20 steals. Doubt he stays at SS for long, if he even plays there at all in the majors.

RDBL2014 (Burlingame): Does Jen-Ho Tseng have any fantasy impact or is his ceiling not high enough? He's been solid but should I look for more?

Bret Sayre: In a deep league, he's a reasonable hold. But otherwise not enough ceiling for me.

Bob (Chicago): Duffy is spitting fire tonight. Assuming he's figured something out, tell me how awesome he is going to be.

Bret Sayre: All the signs of a breakout are there, I just hope he holds up. Odds are he won't though.

bradmorgan27 (DC): Is Jacob Nottingham, valuable dynasty prospect, still a thing?

Bret Sayre: Absolutely still a thing.

Ronald (Acuna): Who is this years Victor Robles?

Bret Sayre: Uhh. you?

Rhys Hoskins (Bret's Heart) (Reading, PA): Am I the next Paul Goldschmidt? Without the steals of course.

Bret Sayre: Oh honey, no.

Jim (Nj): How do you feel about Brent Honeywell? Really like what I see

Bret Sayre: Don't see big fantasy upside, but think he pitches in the middle of a rotation for as long as that screwball allows him to keep his arm attached.

Tim (Okc): Sean Newcomb has a lot of walks this year... Does he ever reach SP1 or is at best a SP2/3

Bret Sayre: He may not even get to SP2/3 level if those walks don't come down. SP1 is out of the question for me barring an unforeseen improvement.

Nick (Philly): I know your high on Nick Williams but what do you see a realistic ceiling being? Can he be an impact fantasy player or does his approach cost him?

Bret Sayre: I still think he can be an impact guy - someone who hits .280-plus with 25 homers and sprinkles in some steals. Of course, it might come with a .310 OBP, but standard leaguers won't really care.

Greg (Toledo): Contreras called up, I just traded Buster Posey for Julio Urias in my dynasty league. Did I jump the gun? Prospects carry crazy value in my league.

Bret Sayre: You absolutely jumped the gun. Sorry.

bradmorgan27 (DC): What's your general dynasty philosophy with closers?

Bret Sayre: Properly value the elite ones - everyone else is fungible.

daaskew (Ohio): Loved the MLB draft dynasty rankings. Where would Maitan, Lourdes bros, Lazarito, Vlad Gutierrez slot in there?

Bret Sayre: Thanks! I'd put Lourdes between Ray and Senzel, Yulieski at the cusp of the top-5, Lazarito and Maitan would likely sneak into the top-20 and Gutierrez would be a few spots behind that.

Jimmy (Baltimore): Tyler O Neil is raking. Can he be a future OF1?

Bret Sayre: Nope.

Jim (Hahery): Is Trevor Rosenthal an elite closer?

Bret Sayre: Nope.

bradmorgan27 (DC): Is Tom Murphy still interesting as the Rockies catcher of the future?

Bret Sayre: Any Rockies' catcher of the future is interesting by definition. So, yes.

Dynasty Loser (Loserville): Have to disband my team and rebuild. Should I be targeting bats or pitchers if I'm years away from competing

Bret Sayre: Bats. Always bats.

Jamie (FL): Willson Conteras, tell us about his bat, and who would you prefer at catcher long term for fantasy....Contreras, Sanchez or Swihart?

Bret Sayre: Good average, some power (probably not more than 15 homers a year or so) and the potential to pick up some steals as he's very athletic for a backstop. Still prefer Swihart to him though long-term.

Mark (Dc): Rafael Devers finally picking it up this month. Do you still see him being a future stud?

Bret Sayre: Yep. He's fine.

Patrick (Miami): JP Crawford or Tim Anderson in 3 years who you got?

Bret Sayre: Crawford.

Tim (NY): Jacob Nottingham future top 5 Catcher?

Bret Sayre: Certainly could be if he plays up to his potential.

daaskew (Ohio): In my dynasty league, last year I took Moncada 1, Rodgers 2. I will have the first 3 this year. Early top 3 are...

Bret Sayre: Corey Ray, Lourdes Gurriel and Nick Senzel. Not a great year to have elite picks though.

Vlad (My Couch): In my dynasty league I have offered trade proposals to teams & they have rejected them. My question is when I see they reject them I email them asking them why so to see where we could try & work out a deal. But it seems most people never respond back. What do you do in this situation? As the people aren't inactive as they make lineup adjustments but it's frustrating when they are out of contention & they obviously have players they could deal & won't communicate with you. Damn sorry bout this rant.

Bret Sayre: Try starting with the e-mails to see what they want, rather than starting with the proposals.

Leonard (None of your business): Hey Bret. I know your technically not a member of the prospect team but is there a specific type of player you seem to be more inclined to? Some former members have been more inclined towards Dominican hitters & some others with pitchers with good change ups. Obviously your preferences will be more fantasy inclined then the prospect team.

Bret Sayre: The types of players I usually gravitate towards are ones with extreme bat speed and big-bodied sluggers. Everyone has their type.

Kyle (Florida): Any faith in Puig being a top 50 player again?

Bret Sayre: Overall? Not really.

treynay3 (Florida): What do you make of Eugenio Suarez's struggles? Love the power but he's been in a huge slump for awhile now. Is he a sell, hold, or buy in a dynasty?

Bret Sayre: I might try to buy him if his owner thinks he was a mirage. He's not a star but he can help.

TJ (DC): I am holding a $1 D.Herrera in a deep NL only and felt good about his role starting next year. Suddenly, I'm very concerned. Seems odd that he got some time last year but with all of the injuries this year - not a peep. He is still young, but am I wrong to sense a real change in what the Mets think about his potential? Or is it more that he is simply a 2B and Walker is really a 2B only even with all of the issues at other positions?

Bret Sayre: Yea, the Mets don't see inclined to move Walker off second, which limits Dilson's ability to help in the near term. I still think Walker's played well enough to earn a QO and a ticket out of town this offseason, so 2017 should still be the plan there.

treynay3 (Florida): How much do you like Manaea in a dynasty? Struggled so far but has looked better as of late. In a 20 team dynasty where do you think he should ideally slot into my rotation in the next few years? I've had some trade interest in him and wanted to see if you thought I would be making a mistake by dealing him now.

Bret Sayre: I like him a lot. Think he can be a solid SP2 in that format if he can stay healthy.

Jason (GA): Fantasy purposes only.. Puig or Profar?

Bret Sayre: Profar.

Sean (Los Angels): If you updated your dynasty ranks today, would Ian Happ or Willson Contraras be higher?

Bret Sayre: It's really close, but I'd still go Happ.

Tim (Pittsburgh): How good can Gregory Polanco be?

Bret Sayre: How much better do you need him to be? He's a star.

Rob (Alaska ): Another Profar question. Crystal ball time. Future position: 1) super utility for TX, 2) starting SS for TX (Andrus trade), 3) starting SS somewhere else, or 4) other.

Bret Sayre: I'll go with starting SS elsewhere.

Duke (TN): Do you think Andrew Benintendi opens the 2017 season with the Red Sox? Furthermore, what's a realistic ceiling? .290 AVG with 20 HR and 15 SB?

Bret Sayre: Nope, I think he starts in the minors. Also I think that's a little high on the average, but the other numbers seem reachable.

Brad (NJ): What do you think of Tyler O'neill and where do you think he ranks in next year's ranking?

Bret Sayre: I'd be pretty surprised if he ended up in the top-50. It's not a profile I particularly like and it's a bad situation for him.

Kion (Pride Land): Dynasty League: Which catcher would you want this year and long-term? Tommy Joseph, Grandal, or TdA?

Bret Sayre: Still want d'Arnaud.

Jojo (Sd): What are the odds Hector Rondon is the Cubs closer on 8/1, 30%? Been great but gotta believe a World Series favorite wants a longer track record in the role and chapman/Miller tumors already.

Bret Sayre: I'd say 80 percent. Possible they usurp him in the playoffs, but I wouldn't be factoring in into his RoS value too much.

Max (TX): In your opinion, what's the gap from Benintendi to a guy like Manuel Margot?

Bret Sayre: He's a tier down. Margot more steals, but less average and power.

bradmorgan27 (DC): Is Austin Meadows' power surge (another homer tonight) and keeping the strikeouts down (16.7%) making you think of him any differently?

Bret Sayre: Not really. Still think he'll be a solid all-around hitter but without any particular skill that makes him special. More average than power or speed.

snapolit (NJ): What are the chances the Yankees end the year in the cellar?

Bret Sayre: 33.1 percent.

Eddy (Miami): No question. Just want to say how much it sucks to see J.D. Martinez go down with a fractured elbow. Injuries suck.

Bret Sayre: It's awful. Big fan of Martinez.

Jerry (Earth): Care to provide any thoughts on the seasons of Derek Fisher & Ryan McMahon so far in AA? Is it crazy to hope McMahon stays at 3B & Fisher can provide some of the hope you gave us when he was drafted?

Bret Sayre: This is exactly who Fisher is. Power and speed, but with real contact issues. If he can overcome them, he's a fantasy stud. McMahon is on the struggle bus, but still like his talent long-term.

David (Atlantis): What should we think about the performance of Cody Reed so far this season? (I refer to the Arizona one) Is his performance something we should be paying attention to as legitimate or is it more smoke & mirrors?

Bret Sayre: Worth paying attention to, but don't translate that into TORP potential.

Rob (Alaska): How deep a league before you get interested in Kevin Newman? Is it a 65 hit tool?

Bret Sayre: Probably a 14 team league. Just don't see him doing much over than contributing in average.

Dan (Boston): Can the Red Sox get Dan Vogelbach in a trade? What kind of stat line could he put up if given full time DH duties in 2017?

Bret Sayre: I mean, they could get anyone in a trade if they really wanted. In 2017, he could hit .270 with 20-25 homers.

Nick (3rd Rock from the Sun ): Don't necessarily have a question but giving you the chance to tell us anything that isn't baseball related that you would like to get out there.

Bret Sayre: French toast > pancakes.

Bret Sayre: On that note, time to record a podcast. Let's do this again soon.