Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Will Carroll

Chat: Will Carroll

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday July 20, 2005 3:00 PM ET chat session with Will Carroll.

Will Carroll is an author of Baseball Prospectus.

Will Carroll: Let's see. Coffee? Check. Cell phone charging? Check. New copy of Pro Football Prospectus ready to be read? Check. Stable internet connection? Ah, Houston, we have a problem. I'll do my best to stay online and get through these questions for the next hour or so. I love doing these chats, so let's get right to it. Powered by the hope that we can have a Hockey Prospectus someday, on to the chatting:

eneff1 (LA): According to the graphs in your column, the Angels are 5th in days spent on the DL and 3rd in amount of salary committed to players on the DL. Furthermore, you didnt mention the Angels as one of the teams with a player dominating their DL (like Barry Bonds in SF). Does this mean they are the team has been hit hardest with injuries up to this point? And what do you think this injury-plagued season says about the Angels medical staff? I thought the Angels medical team with Dr. Lewis Yocum was supposed to be one of the best? Can any half season change that perception?

Will Carroll: Eneff is referring to the work Mike Groopman did at the All-Star Break. I'll take this chance to give Mike a well deserved kudo for a great job this year. I expect like a lot of BP interns, I'll see him in a major league job soon. In fact, I went to Mike for this answer:

"I'm not quite sure what he is asking. This is one of the times where some kind of VORP or MLVr would be a good estimate of how much of a team's play on the field would be hurt, not just financials/days.

Tim Salmon's Salary is 11th in terms of % of player salary that makes up the team DL Salary, so he just missed the cut (46.58%). Without Tim Salmon, the Angels' DL Salary is $8,264,389.23 as opposed to $15,469,636.15

Players to have spent DL time this year have been:

Curtis Pride
Vladimir Guerrero
Lou Merloni
Maicer Izturis
Bret Prinz
Tim Salmon
Matt Hensley
Adam Kennedy
Bengie Molina
Kelvim Escobar (3 separate stints, including one he's on right now).
Francisco Rodriguez
Steve Finley
Robb Quinlan
Orlando Cabrera
Dallas McPherson

Attached are two graphs that show Angels by DL Days and Angels by DL Salary. Tim Salmon, Escobar, and Vlad are the main culprits. As far as how good of a job the Angels do to keep their players healthy, that is one for you."

As for the Angels staff, Ned Bergert had a great season in 2002 when the Angels took the Series title and has regressed a bit, a fairly typical phenomenon. The Angels have a great record and reputation for rehabbing players ahead of schedule. The Angels are solidly above average, especially if there were a way to adjust for risk.

I'm working on it.

Shaun P (Medway, MA): Hi Will, in his column today, Joe Sheehan asked what was up with Justin Morneau (now hitting .251/.314/.448 and, in retrospect, killing my fantasy team) - any insights on whether its something mental, related to the beaning, or another problem? Thanks. (PS - Good luck with your cable company)

Will Carroll: Taking one off the dome has serious physical implications, but the mental side of the game, such as being gunshy in the box, is one of those real "intangibles" that a couple teams are seeing an advantage for themselves on. Even Scott Boras has a sports psychologist on staff. Morneau has had a series of odd physical maladies. This is just the latest on the list. Imagine if he'd stayed a catcher. Morneau is too good a hitter to stay this cold.

misterjohnny (Los Angeles): Does Milton Bradley suffer a power outage when he gets back?

Will Carroll: Hand injuries seem to equally affect power and contact. The thought is that bat speed and bat control are handled by two different mechanisms. The hitting coaches I've spoke to are on both sides of the issue, so it's something I'm still working on solidifying. It wouldn't surprise me to see Bradley's numbers down a bit when he gets back. The Dodgers will take whatever he can give them. I can't believe I traded Bradley for Jose Reyes.

brewLove (Milwaukee): Why are/have we been one of the healthiest teams over the last couple of years? Will that continue?

Will Carroll: Clearly, reading Baseball Prospectus and bringing me in last year to speak works! All teams should do it.

Seriously, the organization took a hard look at the problem and built a great medical staff. The relative dollars spent to the return makes me wonder why more teams aren't doing this. Roger Caplinger, Frank Neville, Paul Anderson, and Dr. Raasch are one of the top medical staffs in sports. I think they could be taking a trophy home this winter.

Mike K (Athens, GA): In my fantasy league, I picked up Griffey as a FA early in the season. I've been enjoyed the numbers he's put up and his miraculous health. Is it time to deal him or is there areal chance he won't go down again this season?

Will Carroll: I feel like I'm back in my investment bank days. Mike, what's your risk tolerance? Griffey remains a serious risk for injuries due to his age, position and history, yet is capable of staying healthy if things break right, or I guess DON'T break is the better phrase here. Anything can happen in the game of baseball. It's just better to know the odds so that you can have a Plan B in place.

Dan (NJ): Mets prospect Philip Humber had Tommy John surgery yesterday. I've read people claim that some pitchers come back throwing even harder after the surgery, but is there any proof that the increase is actually caused by it? It seems to me that they throw harder because the surgery forces them to perform exercises with their arm that they hadn't previously done.

Will Carroll: There's two things at work here. First, as you point out, players are forced to work hard in rehab and to focus on mechanics. This is often new for some of these players that got to MLB on talent alone.

On the other hand, the velocity is somewhat illusory. Most of these players have been hurt a long time, slowly fading from their mythical 100% level. Once back from TJS, they'll often have a jump in velocity. You'd expect a healthy pitcher to throw harder than a broken one. The surgery gets them back to nearer their max, but it doesn't give them the velocity. The idea that some idiot parents have of getting their kid surgery to improve their fastball is ... well, it's criminal.

RC Cook (Dallas TX): Is Chan Ho Park's success this season (well, success considering his performance over the past three years) at least partially due to improved health? What should Ranger fans expect from him going forward? Also, how concerned should we be about Francisco Cordero's control problems?

Will Carroll: Best chauffeur in DFW.

Chan Ho should give a big chunk of those checks to Orel Hershiser. Hershiser is an interesting case. While proving himself to be among the elite pitching coaches, he could also easily move to the manager slot (something pitching coaches don't normally succeed at) or up to the GM slot. Hershiser's a winner, plain and simple. He's old school and open minded.

I don't think the Rangers will ever get full value for Park. Getting something useful should be enough. As for Coco, he looks tired. I pointed out his elbow dropping when we had 200 people at Newberg Report Day.

mgibson (Cambridge, MA): Do you know if Jason Schmidt's troubles spring from an injury? Have you heard anything about how Ramon Hernandez's wrist feels? Also, the other night on NESN Tom Carron and Eck were pointing out that Schilling still seemed not to be pushing off, putting more strain on his shoulder. Did you see the same thing?

Will Carroll: Schmidt: Since he was on the DL with a rotator cuff strain, I'd say that has some bearing on his struggles.

Hernandez: Covered in today's UTK.

Schilling: Somewhat. I don't think the "push" was as big a deal as it was made out to be. He looked stiff and mechanical. I think Schilling will be fine once he gets himself back into that confident, "I can get anybody out" place he's used to living in.

JonL (Washington, DC): Thanks for the chat. You write one of the most informative columns I've read. Has Nick Johnson's recovery time from a bruised heel reached the point where it might be something else? From what I understand, he can't injure it anymore and the boot is there mainly for comfort, but it seems that every week more DL gets tacked on. Also, given his bevy of prior injuries, could the slow recovery time be due to something from his injury-laden past?

Will Carroll: Thank you. Yes, Johnson is a slow healer historically. I've often wondered if it's something genetic or at the very least detectable. It's something that has to be factored into discussions about his value. The big failing is not having Johnson on your roster, but not having an adequate backup.

Jim Thome (DL): Will, have I lost my job in Philly forever?

Will Carroll: $47 million owed endows a job security not seen outside tenure track.

Andy (Oak Park, IL): So Bill Simmons writes in his latest article for ESPN Magazine "Elias needs to create a formula that waters down every power number from 1993 to 2004. There has to be a way to determine the performance fluctuation of someone's power numbers compared with the average power hitter of that season" Does it ever bother you when people in sports media say things like this, especially when BP has all sorts of era-comparing tools?

Will Carroll: Simmons is one of my favorite writers. Someday, he'll quit ducking me and come on BP Radio.

It's a problem of marketing. BP has a ton of stats that people don't understand or know about. They think math is hard or won't take the time to educate themselves. Look, I can't do the math, but I know that VORP and Davenport Translations work. We need to do a better job explaining that, as we did in the BP Basics series, and getting the message out. Our readers are a big part of that. Go tell someone about BP.

Conor Glassey (Redmond, WA): Hey Will, Any idea how much trainers and the medical staff on teams have to deal with players with STDs?

Will Carroll: Not often, though I don't have any stats on this. In an age of AIDS and hidden video cameras, players are smarter about this kind of behavior. Usually.

paulbellows (calgary): While in Japan recently I noticed that the starting pitchers would soft toss on the side between innings instead of wrapping their arms and sitting on the bench. Would this help or hurt their health.

Will Carroll: The Japanese fascinate me. Since spending some time over there in the mid-90s, I've wondered what techniques adapt well. The gyroball is just one of the innovations they've coome up with. The NPL appears to be really hard on pitchers, putting them through near-insane levels of pitch counts when young and the tosses between innings or even after. It's something I'd love to do a serious study on. Remember there's a difference between throwing and pitching. Dr. Jobe said years ago that stress isn't transferred to the ligaments until a pitcher is throwing 75% of max.

Throw more, pitch less. Leo Mazzone has that one exactly right.

Adam J. Morris (Houston, Texas): Could you give us the Cliff's Notes answer to the question, "Do Pitch Counts Matter?"

Will Carroll: The simple answer is yes.

From Craig and Tom to Rany and Keith, pitch counts have been used as a measure of stamina and fatigue. PAP is the best statistical tool for measuring this, but even that is just an approximation based on a mythical average pitcher. It can't factor in Livan Hernandez's "coasting" or Mark Prior's mechanics. What PAP does is function as a proxy for fatigue, something we can't yet measure and honestly have researched so little that it's fair to say we know NOTHING about it. Fatigue and recovery is the next big advantage for an organization willing to commit some capital.

A Curious Fan (Chicago): I notice that Sammy Sosa was not mentioned in your recent article when talking about the steroid scandal. Do you think that just because he frankly denied it on the stand, that he is innocent? It wasn't long ago that Bonds was saying the same thing... until the BALCO testimony leaked.

Will Carroll: I didn't mention a lot of people connected with the steroid scandal because - let me be clear - I don't know who used and who did not. We cannot look at someone and say with any certainty that they used. In researching "The Juice", I learned that if we could use our eyes to say who was on the stuff, we wouldn't spend so much time and effort on testing.

I don't know if Sammy did or did not use steroids, nor do I particularly care. I want performance enhancers out of the game for reasons completely apart from a pointed-finger mentality.

shamah (DC): Will the Yankees ever get a return on Jaret Wright? Or was that the worst signing in light of injury history ever?

Will Carroll: Maybe Leo Mazzone is the next Yankees pitching coach? If not, then I'm not sure what they'll get out of Wright. It's not the worst. The Yankees have enough payroll to eat a couple bad contracts.

Ameer (New York): Do you have some kind of table that shows different injury types and performance after returning? For instance, you often mention in UTK how hand or wrist injuries have such and such effect on bat speed, back injuries sap power, etc. Is there a quick way of providing this info, or are you wary of that since each player and injury is different?

Will Carroll: No. Wish I did and it's a big hope.

Imagine if Bill James or Pete Palmer didn't have box scores to work with, just rumors of hits and strikeouts. That's really the problem I have. I'm developing solutions to problems that have vague data at best, so forgive me for not being at the table stage yet.

Degree and complexity of injury is one of the big problems. I can accurately say when someone goes on or comes off the DL. I can't accurately say when they're healthy or unhealthy, nor can I accurately gauge their actual functional level. I'm getting better with the guesses.

Injury Analysis is just getting started. Making me think like this helps.

Justin H (Chicago, IL): I completed "Juiced.." right at the beginning of summer. Did writing and researching and interviewing for that (very entertaining and informative) book leave you dejected about the "fairness" or "integrity" of baseball?

Will Carroll: "Juiced" is Jose's book.

But that's ok. I figure you bought the right book, "The Juice." (For sale at fine bookstores near you!) No, I wasn't dejected. There's a long history of cheating, of disparity, of bigotry, and of drug use in baseball. I still love the game, perhaps more than ever.

My next book project should have no "Dr. X" problem. Hopefully, I'll have a contract and an announcement soon.

Mat (Seattle): How often would you say that teams are able to put players on the DL or keep them on the DL for non-injury related reasons? Thanks.

Will Carroll: It happens. It makes my job a bit more complicated. It's not rampant like you see in the NBA. How often? 1-2%?

mscully221394 (San Diego, CA): Hi Will, Last friday you mentioned the idea of the tandem starter, with the Red Sox using Schilling and perhaps Wade Miller? I'd think Wakefield with his flexibility, could also work in with Schilling in such a role. Has the tandem Starter concept been utilized much historically? After watching Miller's exhausting six innings on Monday, in which he allowed the decisive two runs in his final frame(both of men whom he had walked), I certainly agree that he would be a fine candidate for such a role - along with Schilling - as a tandem starter for the BoSox. Thanks.

Will Carroll: Wakefield could fill a lot of roles, just another reason we should be developing more knucklers. (Anyone want to buy an Independent League team and develop a bunch of guys that majors will buy from us? I've got a buck fifty in my pocket that I can put towards the project ...)

The Red Sox could get creative, like a modified tandem/shadow system, or they could use the sledge hammer approach and go get A.J. Burnett.

J (Philly): Who's delivery/mechanics are your "favorite" and "least favorite"?

Will Carroll: If favorite is best, Greg Maddux. If everyone could throw like Maddux, wow. Too many kids come to Batter's Edge, where I teach, and want to throw harder. Worse, the parents and scouts and coaches want the same thing.

As far as others, I love the quirks. Guys like Chad Bradford, Mike Meyers, Jim Mecir, Tim Wakefield, Akinori Otsuka, Derrick Turnbow ... that's pitching.

Least favorite? Mike Mussina. That little drinking bird thing as Jay Jaffe calls it just drives me insane. I have no idea why he does it. I have a hard time watching Kerry Wood pitch too.

ElAngelo (NY, NY): In what area should baseball teams be spending more time and money to help either prevent or treat injuries better and faster? In other words, what area is being neglected the most by franchises currently?

Will Carroll: Accountability.

The good medical staffs should be rewards, the bad should be shuffled out, and both should be recognized. When you think that the entire medical budget for the average team is something less than a first year player's salary, it's a wonder we have the ATCs and MDs that we do. I'm just glad I can get them some of the attention they deserve.

shamah (DC): DMPU? Is he fully recovered you think?

Will Carroll: The Reds sure seemed to think so.

Will (Iowa City): Why do you think that the great "the balls are juiced!" scare of the late 1990s morphed into the steroid hysteria that we're currently slogging through? Was "juiced balls" ever disproven, or just not salacious enough?

Will Carroll: Jay Jaffe did a great job dealing with this in "The Juice", working off his own research and that of several other sources, such as Robert Adair's seminal physics of baseball works. I think juiced balls wasn't sexy enough. You'd have to prove it was an organized conspiracy and cover up. If MLB can't find an owner for the Nats, I won't give them enough credit for perpetrating that.

Dr Livy (Charleston (WV)): Back in February, I asked you about the chances of the Cardinal staff repeating their 2004 performance. You seemed to think they would regress (see your comment below). Coming into today (Sunday, July 17th), they had the best team ERA in baseball, by nearly two-tenths of a point. And then Carp went out and threw a 3-hit shutout to beat the Rocket. With Mulder so average, what has made this pitching staff so great? Your earlier comment: DrLivy (Charleston, West Virginia): Last year the Cardinals so-so pitching posted the second best team ERA in the national league. With Mulder there to replace Williams, can they have the best staff in the National League in 2005? Will Carroll: It's possible, certainly, but I'm not sure we can expect them not to regress. Mulder has some injury concerns - there's a ton of whispers that Beane "sold high." Add in Carpenter and Morris' injury concerns and the mystery of Ankiel and I'm not sure what to expect. The bullpen may be a bigger deal. Larussa may push the starters he has (and they only go six deep) to go further without Kline and Calero. I'd take the Mets and Cubs over the Cards this season with the Phillies and Astros close behind.

Will Carroll: Run support can sure make a staff look good. If you check the support neutral numbers, you'll find that Carpenter is still damn good, but that the rest of the bunch is pretty so-so. I wasn't so much off on the pitching staff as I was seriously underestimating the Cards offense.

caspian88 (Salinas, CA): Why does EQA weight walks at a higher value than hits? If this is the formula: (H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB) Then EQA can't possibly be a valuable stat, from my reading. It rates a walk as half again the value of a hit, and SH and SF the same value. How was EQA formulated originally, and if I'm correct, how is it stil useable?

Will Carroll: *curls into fetal position*

Look, I passed algebra sophomore year because the teacher liked baseball. Period.

zephyrboy64 (Fay NC): Can you explain Hal Lanier to me?

Will Carroll: There's always one of these questions in every chat. One's where I have no idea what someone means. If I was Jim Rome, I would not rack you. I'd be running a line of smack that would make your ears bleed. Then pausing for a moment. Then repeating myself.

tddewan (Torrance, CA): I am a high school pitching coach. My pitchers who are year-round baseball players seemed to run out of gas at the end of our season(June)while our pitchers who are two/three sport athletes struggle at the beginning but finish strong. Any suggestions on monotoring innings in the fall, conditioning, etc.?

Will Carroll: ASMI and USA Baseball say that players should take at least two months off from throwing each year. This year round baseball thing is going to be interesting to watch. The way it looks, I think Tim Kremchek and Jim Andrews had better build bigger waiting rooms.

As for monitoring innings, I'd check out "Saving The Pitcher" and Tom House's book "Fit To Pitch".

scothughes (ny): will, a simple answer to the EQA question: hits get counted twice - in H, and in TB. so a single gets a weight of 2 (1 H, 1 TB). Walks get a weight of 1.5. So hits are more valuable than walks.

Will Carroll: Yeah, what he said.

dianagramr (Brooklyn): Hey there Will! Is the worst (most DL-inducing) playing surface in the Metrodome? If not there, then where?

Will Carroll: It was last year due to problems prepping the new turf. Montreal still holds the title and there have been some complaints about Toronto's new turf as well. It's hard to lock down the data because in so many cases, injuries don't have a discernible genesis, at least from this vantage point. One thing I have noticed is that smaller foul territory tends to mean more injuries, though I don't know why.

B.J. Upton (Hopefully Tampa Bay soon.): Am I ready for the show yet, Will?

Will Carroll: We just had you on BP Radio a couple weeks back, B.J.!

DaveyEck (MN): Do you think the Twins have a realistic shot of winning the division (yeah right) or the WC? Chicago doesn't appear to be folding, and the WC is traditionally a team from the East or West. What deadline moves do you think that the Twins should make if they want to contend? And am I the only one that thinks Ron Gardenhire is an over-conservative and horrible manager?

Will Carroll: White Sox '05 = Mariners '01

I think the Twins miss the playoffs, hurting my predicatron team. Of course, my prediction skills (outside of calling the Red Sox to win the Series) are on par with my ability to find matching pairs of socks in the morning.

Jake (St Charles, IL): Taking into consideration injury concerns, which pitcher would you rather have over the pinnacle/prime of their careers (you can choose as to which part of their career is the "prime"): Clemens, R. Johnson, Maddux or Pedro?

Will Carroll: If "prime" is two or three years, then Pedro. If it's a bit longer, Clemens.

Of course, the correct answer is "all of the above."

Josh (Daydreams at Work): So where should an early-20's corporate drone go in his spare time to learn a good knuckleball, in the interest of helping your more-knuckleballers plan?

Will Carroll: I can teach it pretty well, but I'm sure most pitching coaches can. It's not a hard pitch to learn, but it's hard to perfect. You have to commit to it and throw it a lot. A LOT. Everything about a knuckleball is different. My pal Dave Clark has a book called "The Knucklebook" which is the definitive work on the subject. Look for it at www.ivanrdee.com.

jgalt73 (Portland, Oregon): Will, any thoughts on Nomar's injury and it's potential differential effects on hitting vs. fielding? Could his bat outweigh his fielding liabilities - I'm thinking a cardboard cutout at SS would be better than watching Neifi swing the bat 4 times a game.

Will Carroll: Wow, more than an hour in and I've only mentioned Pro Football Prospectus once! My shameless plugging skills are fading ...

... and did I mention I'll be doing a column at Football Outsiders on injuries, much in the vein of UTK?

Ok, that out of the way, Nomar should come back and be something. I'm not sure what that something is. Is it the spring training Nomar? I'm working on this theory that injuries "age" a player. However, Nomar's PECOTA card thinks he'll age well. My guess? Something similar to what he did late last season with a bit less BA due to losing a step out of the box.

Pete H (Philadelphia, PA): A couple of questions: a) Would you (honestly) recommend the Pro Football Prospectus for this year? b) Do you think the findings in "Saving the Pitcher" and the over-use of breaking balls in little league and the subsequent damage to kid's arms will ever be adequately addressed, or will coaches' desire to win (relatively) meaningless games always prevail? c) In your opinion, what is the best individual hitter vs. individual pitcher matchup in MLB today?

Will Carroll: I just got my copy in the mail, but yes, the book looks great and is worthy of the Prospectus name. The work that Aaron and his Football Outsiders crew does is amazing. I just can't figure out how I can be the dumbest guy in two different groups!

On b), I think yes, we're finally making inroads. People are talking and thinking about it. HBO did a great piece featuring Tim Kremchek a couple months back. I think we'll need to legislate at the high school level, though I'm not sure high school baseball will survive in its current form.

c) Wow. I'd love to see Ichiro and Clemens going at it, but I bet Matt Clement and Alex Cora will never top what they did last season.

MarkDuell (Columbus): Should I be concerned about Chipper Jones coming out of last night's game with the bad foot being sore again?

Will Carroll: To be expected. See Chipper, think Frank Thomas.

coreyk626 (Chicago, IL): When (if ever) will a major league team sign Daisuke Matsuzaka, and how much of an injury timebomb is he?

Will Carroll: A boy can dream. Matsuzaka should come over next year since he will be a free agent. I will personally guarantee that he will not be injured in his first season if his new team allows him to continue doing what he's done. His workout regimen is amazing, but very unconventional.

chris (brooklyn< NY): hey Will - lemme just say that I LOVE UTK, it's become one of my favorite reads at the site. thanks for joining us. My question pertains to the Rockies, and how they can develop a winning team. I recall reading somewhere that Hampton said he felt very debilitated following his starts @ Coors. This in mind, wouldn't it make sense for the team to try a 6-man rotation, to give their starters some extra recuperating time? has this been attempted in any of their minor-league teams? Would love your opinion on this matter from a physical/medical perspective.

Will Carroll: Figuring out the Coors Field problem is becoming like some sort of sabermetric holy grail. My theory is move the fences in, get eight Quad-A pitchers and throw them until they're tired and then bring in another. Pay each a million bucks a year, enough to make them ignore their stats. Then spend the rest of the money on a team of sluggers. Win 20-19 at home and try to play matchups on the road.

The health effects of altitude are interesting. I think there are as many advantaged as disadvantages. With their minor league team in Colorado Springs, I'd be experimenting with something new every year if you can find the right players.

bctowns (Chicago): Will, I can't remember if I already asked this or not, but how will Halladay pitch when he gets back, and when will that be? Thanks for chatting.

Will Carroll: Halladay should be fine. Fractures heal. It's just a damn shame that it happened to someone having such a great season. It does take some wear off his arm, if we can find a bright side.

Jason Giambi (Bronx): Am I the comeback player of the year?

Will Carroll: Yes.

Will Carroll: With that, I have to head out. My connection held, so I have to thank Panera Bread for the fine wireless and to all the people that asked questions. Remember, if I didn't get to your question, you can call in and talk to me Tuesdays from 4-5 Eastern on ESPN950 or on Saturday mornings, 11-12 Eastern. Go subscribe to the Podcast, tell your friends about BP, and pre-order "Mind Game." Thank you for letting me be here. I'm the luckiest boy in the world.