Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Matt Collins

Chat: Matt Collins

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday January 27, 2016 7:00 PM ET chat session with Matt Collins.

Matt Collins: My Magic Hat cap said my night is about to get better, so don't mess this up. Ask me about anything fantasy, the greatness of relievers, the Red Sox, and life in general. We'll get started in about five minutes, so start your hype music.

JQ (NJ): What's for dinner?

Matt Collins: I tried my mother's upside down pepperoni pizza recipe. It did not go well.

delatopia (the 415): Sim baseball: Whose rest-of-career would you prefer, Keone Kela or Antonio Osuna? Could Mychal Givens be close to those guys? Thanks!

Matt Collins: Assuming you mean Roberto, I'll go with Osuna because of the potential for him to start. They're very close though. Givens has the potential to get near that tier for sure, but it's hard to put him up there without seeing it first.

Slinkey1998 (California): What would a Red Sox package for Sonny Gray look like? Would have to be something like Moncada/Devers, Owens, and someone else, right?

Matt Collins: Given what the trade market looks like right now, I think you'd probably need two of the top 4, or at least Kopech instead of Owens. With that being said, this is Billy Beane we're talking about so you never know. Maybe he's super in love with Marco Hernandez or something. (He's probably not)

John (Boston): Hey Matt,dynasty league,please rank...A J Pollock..Matt Duffy....Raisel Iglesias....Micheal Conforto...Joe Ross .....Jesse Hahn...Randall Grichuk...Billy Burns Thanks,John

Matt Collins: Pollock, Conforto, Iglesias, Duffy, Ross, Grichuk, Burns, Hahn

Harry (New York): Hi Matt,Please put in order...Orlando Arcia..A J Reed....Jose Deleon...Blake Snell.. Thanks,Harry

Matt Collins: They're are really close together, so you can't really go wrong. I'd go Arcia, Reed, Snell, De Leon

Rusty Greer (Texas): If you could choose any 3 for a dynasty league who would you choose between Brendan Rodgers, AJ Reed, Bradley Zimmer, Victor Robles, Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers? Note the scorable categories are singles, doubles, triples, HR, RBI, runs, batting avg, OBP, SBs. 10 team only 50 minor league keepers total in the league, so general value ceiling over floor. Thanks!

Matt Collins: Rodgers, Robles and Zimmer for me, with Devers right there as well. I could see Reed being swapped in if you want someone closer to the majors, too. But just based on upside I'd leave him out.

Jon (Chicago): What is more valuable for the Cubs: re-signing Fowler and moving Heyward to RF or the compensation pick from Fowler signing with another team?

Matt Collins: I'd lean towards re-signing Fowler, but I also may be a bit lower on Soler than a lot of others. If they did go this route, whatever they got back in a Soler trade would be a fine replacement for the comp pick. Of course, they should be a great team whether or not they bring Fowler back.

JQ (NJ): What's the draw of it being upside down?

Matt Collins: It's more like a casserole. So you feel like you're being healthier rather than shoving 12 slices of pizza into your mouth, which we all do of course.

Gabe (Toronto): What do you think Tulo's production looks like in a full season @ Rogers Centre?

Matt Collins: I think people are a little too down on him. I get the increased injury risk with him playing on turf, but he was already a near-max injury risk as it was. He's still an elite SS, with a .280-.300 AVG and 20-25 HRs plus the contextual advantage of hitting in this stacked Blue Jays lineup

caseyj15 (Medford, Or): How do you see the career of Matt Moore panning out over the next few years for the Rays?

Matt Collins: I'm still relatively confident he'll be useful for them. He probably won't be as good as many expected him to be a few years ago, but there's still at least a league-average pitcher in there, with the upside for a lot more. He was really good over his last few starts last year. Given his contract, that's more than fine for Tampa.

Kalimantan (Palangkaraya): Thanks for the chat. In a dynasty with OBP instead of AVG, I have a chance to acquire Miggy, which will cost me Encarnacion + Tyson Ross + Familia. How much difference is there between these two first basemen to give up these solid pitchers?

Matt Collins: I wouldn't do that. Encarnacion is certainly behind Cabrera, but it's too close to give up those guys. Ross should be a solid SP3 for the next few years, and I'm in love with Familia.

delatopia (the 415): Preston Tucker: Likely starter or fourth outfielder?

Matt Collins: Probably depends on whether or not he leaves Houston, but in a vacuum I think he can be a starter. Or at least the left-handed end of a platoon.

John (CT): Your thoughts please regarding Andrew Benintendi. He seems to be a rising star in a system full of stars. Will he stick with the Sox?

Matt Collins: I love Benintendi. I saw him a bunch in Lowell this year and he blew me away. Now, to be fair, he was the college player of the year so he should kill NYPL competition away, but he was still really impressive. And he kept hitting after his promotion to Greenville, too. There are enough questions with the current outfield and he should move quickly enough where I think he'll stick around.

Harold (Texas): PECOTA????? Neeeed to know wheeeeeen?

Matt Collins: Sorry, this question is above my pay grade. I would guess it'll be coming in the next few weeks, though.

Aaron (Penn): Syndergaard or Fernandez?

Matt Collins: Fernandez

El Ashaban (Tierra Arboleta): 1) Do you think Strasburg will get better this year? 2) Over/under 2 years on needing another Tommy John for him?

Matt Collins: 1) Yes. I'm expecting big things from Strasburg this year. I'm banking on him being a top-10 SP at the end of the year, and a top-5 finish wouldn't shock me at all.
2) I'll take the over, because who knows and I'd rather be positive than negative.

Cal Guy (Cal): Hi Matt, The details are sketchy, but how do reports on Maitan compare to Harper at the same age?

Matt Collins: I don't think you can really compare anyone to Harper at that age. Especially when you're talking about Latin prospects who don't get nearly the same coverage. That's not to say Maitan isn't an extremely exciting prospect, but Harper was on a whole nother level.

The L Train (Behind you): Who would Anderson Espinoza's closest historical prospect comp be?

Matt Collins: Jose Fernandez is the popular one. It's unfair because it makes people expect that kind of production so soon. A cursory look makes me think maybe Julio Teheran could be another one? To be honest this is probably a better question for the prospect staff and/or some others on the fantasy staff.

Dillon (Amazon Jungle): I just traded for Tulo in a deep 20 team league. Im loaded with prospects so I didnt have to deplete my farm in order to get him. I may still be a year away from competing though. How do you see his production playing out over the next couple years?

Matt Collins: I talked about Tulo a little bit above. Long story short, there are only a couple shortstops I'd rather have for your window.

Ernie (San Diego): Do you think Colin Rea is a good long term pickup in a dynasty league ?

Matt Collins: Meh. He's not very exciting. In a deeper league, sure, he could be helpful. But anything shallower than 15 teams and you can probably find something more appealing.

Craig (Columbus, OH): Out of Finnegan, Lamb or C. Reed which one would you prefer long term ? Thanks

Matt Collins: Fantasy or real life? Real life it's Finnegan, because he should at least be a good reliever. In fantasy I'll take the upside of Reed.

Todd (Dayton Ohio): Matt, The starting LF in Cincinnati will be Schebler, Y. Rodriguez or Duvall ?

Matt Collins: All Reds questions all the time. Schebler has to be the favorite right now, and will probably end the season with the most ABs and the best results. But my guess is all three will get a chance and none of them will be very good.

Scott (Pa): In my dynasty league, trying to decide who to keep out of Jose Berrios, Hunter Harvey, and Alex Reyes. Harvey obviously has an injury concern now, and eventually the AL East. Berrios has size and pitching plane concerns, and the American League line-ups. Reyes of course has the suspension issues, although I like the National League advantages and the Cardinals reputation for grooming pitchers. Leaning Reyes as I have no immediate starting pitching issues. Thoughts?

Matt Collins: You can't really go wrong with either Berrios or Reyes. Since you aren't overly concerned about this year, I'd probably lean towards Reyes for the reasons you mentioned. Especially the Cardinals factor. But I'm also super high on Berrios. As for Harvey, I'd be trying my hardest to avoid Orioles pitching prospects.

seddrah (seattle): Which young arm do you prefer: Luis Ortiz, Frances Martes, or Reynaldo Lopez?

Matt Collins: Martes

Artie (Morrison, IL): Willson Contreras never put up good numbers before last year's ridiculous breakout season. I'm skeptical of such performances, what say you ?

Matt Collins: A little skepticism is fine. But unless I can see a player myself, I'll take the scouts words over past minor league numbers. In Contreras' case, most scouts seem to agree he made real improvements last year.

Vladimir (Russia): Hey Matt, prospect question. Do you have any personal favorite prospects who aren't well known heading into the season but are keeping an eye on there stock this year?

Matt Collins: Hate to disappoint, but I'm among the worst person on the staff to answer this question. My only real deep prospect knowledge is in the Red Sox system, so I can give you a couple of those. Michael Chavis was a first round pick so maybe he doesn't fit here, but he has huge raw power and I can see him jumping up in public perception if/when that starts showing itself in games. Luis Basabe was really impressive when I saw him in Lowell last year, too. Good speed profile with sneaky power for someone of his size.

BigTex (Texas): What do you forsee from Jurickson Profar this season? and beyond? If he is healthy can he grab a job in Arlington and be productive?

Matt Collins: Like most others, I love Profar if he's healthy. I'm expecting big things in 2017 and beyond. This year is a little tougher to project with Odor and Andrus still in front of him. I think he'll earn some time soon enough, but I'm not sure he'll get enough to be a true difference maker in 2016.

Jimmy (MN): How long would you expect David Price to be a top pitcher in the game? I know age tends to be less relevant for pitchers (arm just goes when it goes, so to speak), but are there any signs to expect more or less of the same with Price?

Matt Collins: Kind of depends on your definition of "top pitcher." I wrote something a few weeks ago, and I think he'll be someone who can age well. Over the last few years he's adapted to age, getting away from his fastball and mixing up his pitches a lot more. Obviously I can't predict health, but if he can stay on the mound he should be a top pitcher for at least the next three or four years.

Jeff (Brooklyn): Hey Matt, thanks for doing this chat. Who are your personal (in order) top 15 dynasty players? I'm struggling with my list and was wondering if you could help me out. Thanks again man for doing this chat!

Matt Collins: This is mostly off the top of my head, but...
Trout
Harper
Goldschmidt
Kershaw
McCutchen
Correa
Rizzo
Stanton
Bryant
Arenado
Machado
Fernandez
Donadlson
Altuve
Betts

DB (Twittersphere ): Best follows on Twitter for baseball/fantasy news? Names or handle is fine

Matt Collins: Besides the entire BP staff, Jon Heyman rules Twitter.

coachdorsey00 (Tennessee): Which of these 3 will make the most fantasy impact the next 2 years Cristhian Adames, Andrew Velazquez, & Nolan Fontana?

Matt Collins: Can I say none of the above? Because it's probably none of the above. Gun to my head, I cry for a little bit then say Adames just because he has the easiest route to playing time. Velazquez is the best player, but I don't think he plays much the next two years. But yeah, none of the above.

madjockmcferson (Norton, MA): So, whats the long-term outlook on Chris Carter? Is he worth a late round flyer or is he a liability?

Matt Collins: I'm a little more scared of him than others because I think there's a chance he starts make such little contact that he's unplayable. But there's so much power there that he's definitely worth a late-round flyer. Worst case you can just drop him without any harm being done.

coachdorsey00 (TN): HANRAM at 1B. Your thoughts.?

Matt Collins: I'm weirdly confident in him, but that's not based than much more than a gut feeling. I think the infield experience he has should help him out. They don't have any better options, so it's at least worth a shot. It can't go any worse than it did in left field, at least.

navarra (Ukraine): Hanley's next season UZR/DRS?

Matt Collins: -5

Van Lingle Mungo Jerry (Burbank): Hey, Matt! Any thoughts on 2015 draftee Harrison Bader? In person he looked more than competent to me in centerfield in the Midwest League last year -- and his 54 game stats prorate to an impressive 20+ HR's and 40+ steals. Is there fantasy above avg. regular potential? Thanks!

Matt Collins: Above average is probably a bit optimistic. I wouldn't be targeting him in first-year drafts unless it's absurdly deep. He's more of a guy to keep an eye on as the season goes on to see how he adjusts to higher levels.

coachdorsey00 (TN): Luiz Gohara, Trevor Gott or Joe Ross in the 13th round of 36 minor league only draft?

Matt Collins: Ross

Alan (Australia): How much power potential does Orlando Arcia have? 8-10 HR's maybe? Or more like 12-15?

Matt Collins: Realistically he's probably in the 8-10 range. The ceiling might be 10-15 since he's in Milwaukee.

Al (Canada): Can jerad eickhoff become the next Tyson Ross? His slider was great last year I think.

Matt Collins: I like Eickhodd, but it's hard to see him reaching Ross' level since playing in Philly rather than San Diego. He's definitely worth a later-round look, though.

bgrosnick (Michigan): Hey Matt. Long time listener (about a minute), first time caller. Please give me two relievers (one Sox, one not) who you think could break out this year.

Matt Collins: For the Sox, I'll go with Matt Barnes. Focusing solely on being a reliever could do him wonders. Non-Sox I'll say Kyle Barraclough.

Bill Clinton (Las Vegas): Matt, thanks for doing this chat. I just got back from a run to McDonalds. Name a couple of deeper names in the Red Sox system that you think could really breakout this year. I think Roniel Raudes may be one, but I don't know about another. What do you think Matt?

Matt Collins: Bill, I don't want to tell you how to live your life but you should be able to find some better food than McDonalds in Vegas.

To answer your question, I'll go with a few guys I saw in Lowell this year. Josh Ockimey, Victor Acosta, Austin Rei and Travis Lakins. I'm also really interested in Christopher Acosta. It's easy to forget now but he was about as highly regarded as Espinoza at the time they were signed.

Drew (Rockford, IL): What do you expect out of Brian Dozier over the next three years. Do you like Jonathan Schoop as a sleeper this year, and if no someone you think that could become fantasy relevant.

Matt Collins: I'd expect more of the same from Dozier. Good power with little help in AVG. I do like Schoop as a late-rounder. His AVG will drop from where it was last year, but the power is real. Spangenberg is another good late-round target.

Snowborne (Pittsburgh): Do you think jorge Alfaro sticks at catcher? And what are your expectations for his bat at the big league level ?

Matt Collins: I do think he sticks at catcher, though he's probably not going to be plus back there. There's so much volatility in his bat it's hard to make a real prediction here. The safe bet is a lowish AVG player with good pop.

Ryan (Denver): Best OF prospect you've seen - Harper,Josh Hamilton, J Upton or somebody else?

Matt Collins: Harper

Drew (Rockford): Does David Ortiz continue to mash in his retirement year or does Father Time finally make him human?

Matt Collins: I will assume that he is going to continue to mash until I see anything to suggest otherwise. Knowing what I know about him from following from afar over the last 13 years, I can't imagine him falling off drastically in a season that will be as hyped as this one.

Jon (Pittsburgh): What are your realistic expectations for Kenta maeda? I know he doesn't have the stuff of darvish but could he have a iwakuma like impact ? Does he stick in the rotation or go to the pen?

Matt Collins: I think he sticks in the rotation, but with more of a back-of-the-rotation profile. I know the Iwakuma comp is a popular one, but that seems like it's closer to the best case scenario. Iwakuma is really when he's healthy.

Davin (Da burgh): Name 2 or 3 guys in NL who end season as closer who aren't closers now. Bonus points: best NL reliever prospect not in majors.

Matt Collins: Silvino Bracho is my favorite non-closer coming into the year. I'm surprised I don't hear Ziegler more often as a guy who could lose his job early on. I also like Romo and Vizcaino. I'll say Montas for the best reliever prospect, even though they probably view him as a starter for now.

Dude (Pizza joint): NL Dynasty obp: Wong $15, Drury $3, Altherr $5, Coulter $3..... For Robles $5, R McMahon $3, F Wall $3. Who wins?

Matt Collins: It's somewhat dependent on when your competitive window is, but all things equal I'll take the first side.

Bart B (Hangin): In a dynasty lg that has prices increase by $2 per year for major leaguers, minors prices frozen, how much more valuable does that make prospects?

Matt Collins: A little bit, and it depends on how many prospects are rostered. If it's not too many, I feel like that could be a league where prospects are overvalued by many. I'd be trying to trade my prospects to those owners as much as possible.

R (Ohio): What would you do if you hated your fantasy league commissioner yet you have spent so much time (years) building your fantasy to the point where you are set up for championship-worthy success in 2016?

Matt Collins: If you can't oust him/her, win the league this year then quit in a blaze of glory. There's too many leagues available out there to play in one you don't enjoy.

Drew (Rockford): Assuming position eligibility/constraint won't be an issue, which outfielder has a better fantasy year. Standard Roto League Christian Yelich Jay Bruce Carlos Gomez

Matt Collins: Yelich

Seany (LA): Robert Stephenson and Alex Meyer. The bloom is off the proverbial roses, but is there any real hope for them in 2016?

Matt Collins: I'm not expecting much from Meyer, but Stephenson can still be fine. The upside may not be what it once was, but there's definitely still a useful player in there.

Cody (Kentucky): How much does pitching in Texas for a whole season hurt Cole Hamels 2016 stats?

Matt Collins: Not a whole lot. He was already pitching in Philly, so it's not like he's looking at a huge downgrade in home parks. He's still a top-20 SP for me.

C (Ohio): Bigger impact 2016 season. Buxton or Gallo?

Matt Collins: Buxton. He has a clearer path to playing time and the higher upside.

davin (Da burgh): Does Altherr get 500 ABs this year, and do you see him starting in 2017/2018?

Matt Collins: I don't think he'll get quite that many, but I can see him being close. With Nick Williams coming up soon, I think Altherr settles into more of a part-time role over the next few years, though the upside is present to make me look stupid.

Billy (Oakland): Normally those Sonny Gray mock-offers are horrible, but that Devers/Moncada package does sound delicious. (Marcos puts it over the top, babay!)

Matt Collins: At the risk of sounding like a prospect hugger, I don't know if I'd make the move for Gray. The strikeouts really fell off as last year went on. The high cost would be justifiable, but it'd scare me from a Red Sox perspective.

M (Milwaukee): Do you thing Boxberger loses his gig as closer at any point this season to Jake McGee?

Matt Collins: It's probaby more likely that one of them gets traded. Even if they aren't, the Rays don't really follow the strict set-up/closer roles. With that being said, I'd rather have Boxberger.

Ziggy (Van Nuys): Dynasty points. Ryan Braun (32 yo) or Aroldis Chapman (28 yo).

Matt Collins: Maybe there's some reliever bias here, but I'll take Chapman. Braun's decline is getting closer, and Chapman is one of the rare relievers who can maintain his dominance for a long time.

Mark (B-More): Can Travis Shaw win a starting job this season?

Matt Collins: No. He's a really nice bench piece to have but he's not the player he looked like last season. And since I don't see Ramirez failing nearly as miserably at 1B as he did in LF, there's really nowhere for Shaw to go.

DB (Da burgh): If some teams adopt strategy of pulling starters after 4/5/6 innings (before 3rd time thru lineup) will some middle relievers gain value w wins? Col, LA, others may adopt this?

Matt Collins: Sure, but from a fantasy perspective it'll be a net negative. The starters will lose their wins and it will be nearly impossible to guess which reliever will get the W on any given night.

Dwight (North Dakota): Are you aboard the Victor Robles hype train?

Matt Collins: I have taken my seat and am at risk of being thrown out of the quiet car.

Drew (Rockford): Does Carter Capps eventually take over the closers role this year?

Matt Collins: I'm not as confident as everyone else seems to be. Don't get me wrong, he's really, really good. But it feels like people are underselling A.J. Ramos. If these things were based purely on talent, Capps would get it. Unfortunately, Ramos has the leg up since he had the job last year, and I don't see him being bad enough to give it up. Capps' best chance might be if the Marlins fall out of contention and trade Ramos.

holmesp2001 (St. Louis): What do you expect from Anthony Rendon in 2016? People forget he was a top five MVP candidate just a year ago and is only 25. Injuries have been scary though....

Matt Collins: I'm with you on Rendon. I think he's being undersold. The injuries are a concern, but he doesn't have to get all the way back to his 2014 form to provide huge value. I think a top-3 finish at 2B is well within reach.

dianagram (VORGville): Max Kepler .... if not 2016, then 2017, right?

Matt Collins: Yeah. I'm expecting him to get some time this year, but probably not full time until 2017.

Drew (Rockford): Do you think Michael Kopech can be a front line starter? And at what level do you see him at to end the year, when do you expect him to get his first cup with the Red Sox?

Matt Collins: He has that upside, though it's more probable that he settles in more as a number 2 or 3 than an ace. I'd expect him to finish the year in Salem, and for him to maybe get his first taste in 2018.

Tony (Florida): What kind of stats do you see Chi Chi Gonzalez putting up for 2016?

Matt Collins: I'm not very high on him. He doesn't offer much beyond a low BABIP and okay ERA, neither of which are guarantees. I'd be avoiding him.

Taylor (Texas): Is Mazara-Gallo-Brinson the best prospect trio in the minors?

Matt Collins: There's an argument there. I think I prefer Seager/Urias/De Leon. Moncada/Benintendi/Espinoza is probably in the conversation, too, though I'd take LA and TEX ahead of them.

holmesp2001 (St. Louis): If Pedroia were to play 150 games where would you rank him in the second base rankings for points leagues?

Matt Collins: Probably a few spots higher than he was in our rankings. Maybe 7th.

Drew (Rockford): Back to David Ortiz. I dropped him in my dynasty league because of an add in our prospect draft. Was planning on using Brandon Belt to fill the DH role. Mistake or huge mistake?

Matt Collins: The biggest mistake

Matt Collins: Alright guys, sorry I couldn't get to all of your questions tonight, but this is all the time I have. This was fun, we'll do it again real soon.