Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Greg Wellemeyer

Chat: Greg Wellemeyer

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday February 03, 2016 8:00 PM ET chat session with Greg Wellemeyer.

Greg Wellemeyer: Good evening, folks. Thanks for joining me, let's chat some fantasy and other baseball-related (or not) topics.

Paul (Charlotte): Is Anderson Espinoza entering the stud SP tier with Urias, Giolito, Berrios and Reyes?

Greg Wellemeyer: Oh no, not yet. Espinoza is getting a lot of helium in the run up to 2016, but he's not in that class yet. Doesn't mean he can't/won't reach that level some day, but he hasn't turned 18 yet and needs to prove it as he climbs the ladder.

TrickLaDaKids (Yompton): In a fantasy dynasty vacuum, please rank these prospects: Rodgers, Benintendi, Moncada, Devers, Mazara, Robles, and Brinson.

Greg Wellemeyer: Moncada, Mazara, Benintendi, Brinson, Rodgers, Robles, Devers

tnyfn20 (RVA): Jake Lamb? Yay or Nay? I see him hitting 2nd in ARI despite what Stewart ways.

Greg Wellemeyer: I have no idea where he'll hit or how many ABs to expect, but I do like Lamb. Solid improvement in his approach last season.

mattstupp (NYC): Which 2 would you keep? Adam Wainwright, Marcus Stroman, Miguel Sano (has 3B eligibility in Yahoo), or Rougned Odor?

Greg Wellemeyer: Sano and Odor. Stroman is a Duke guy and therefore my boy, but unless you're talking about elite level SP as the alternative, I'm always keeping the bats.

Alex (CA): If both careers ended right now, whose would you rather have, Tim Lincecum or Buster Posey? 2x Cy Young,2 other top 10 finishes, and 3x WS winner, vs RoY, 1x Comeback, 1x Hank Aaron, 2x Silver Slugger, 1x MVP, and 3x WS winner?

Greg Wellemeyer: Fascinating question. Just looked up their WARP and we have Posey at 38 and Lincecum at 21. If Lincecum had the edge in WS to go along with those two Cys, I might go that way, but he doesn't.

charlie (Phillly): probability of Gallo being a star vs a liability.

Greg Wellemeyer: I'm usually very conservative when it come to players like Gallo that have extreme contact issues. It means I never own guys like Gallo, but I can plan around that. It's harder to adjust on the fly if he starts to sink your batting average, because you lose leverage and have fewer interested trade partners.

GoTribe06 (Lynchburg): In a Score Sheet keeper league, who's the better keeper, Matt Moore or Clay Buchholz?

Greg Wellemeyer: Good question and I wish I knew the answer. This will be my first year playing Scoresheet. I'm not a big fan of either, even though I live in Durham and have seen several amazing performances from Moore. I still question his command and consistency. I like Buchholz, assuming he's healthy enough to get to 150 innings or so.

Alex (CA): Shallow OBP dynasty league. I like my team's chances going into next year. Due to trades last year, I have the 2nd pick in this years draft. Do I spend my pick on Stroman or Matz, even though they probably would be my 6 best starter, or draft high upside prospects like Anderson Espinoza, Rafael Devers, or Victor Robles to sit on. Depth isn't a bad thing, but those guys won't be around in the 2nd after their breakout years.

Greg Wellemeyer: Stroman......Matz....................................the rest of those guys. Always take the best player in the first round and worry about roster construction later, especially when the best player is in the major leagues and the others are in the low minors.

James (Oh Canada): How long would you expect Edwin Encarnacion to continue last year's level of HRs, AVG, and OBP? This year and next year, who knows after that?

Greg Wellemeyer: Well, I don't think he's going to repeat his 2015 performance in any of those categories again. That doesn't mean I dislike him, I think he'll still be very productive for the next 2-3 seasons.

Bill Clinton (Las Vegas): Greg, thanks for doing this chat! My question: Name five prospects currently not in the BP top 50 who have a chance to land there by mid-season. Basically, what 5 prospects do you see rising their stock substantially this year?

Greg Wellemeyer: Just drawing from the 101 here - Clint Frazier, Francis Martes, Harold Ramirez, Yusniel Diaz, Franklyn Kilome,

Alex (CA): D'arnaud is a Top ___ Catcher for you this year?

Greg Wellemeyer: 4

Chris (Baltimore): Cole and Bauer are both clearly very talented. Do you think Cole will improve upon his dynamic 2015 this year? And do you think Bauer will ever put up a G. Cole 2015?

Greg Wellemeyer: Second part first here: no. No chance. Bauer walked more than four per nine innings last season and Cole walked fewer than two. Hard to project improvement upon his really, really good 2015 but I do think Cole can take one more step forward to join the game's truly elite. He's only 25.

B (Minnesota): What kind of production would you expect out of Richie Shaffer if he had regular ABs?

Greg Wellemeyer: The raw power is immense and he did make some adjustments last year that led to a .270 average in AAA, his best in the upper levels. I think he'd hit some tape measure shots from time to time but major league pitchers would probably chew him up.

Barry (Georgia): Should I hold onto Leonardo Molina in my AL-only dynasty league minor league system?

Greg Wellemeyer: Hard to say without knowing the depth, but yeah, probably. He was much better in a repeat of the GCL and if the league is deep enough that you're investing in guys like Molina in the first place, I don't think he's been bad enough to dump before he even reaches full season ball.

Eddie (Ohio): Is Cody Anderson a viable fantasy option for 2016?

Greg Wellemeyer: Can't see it. Don't think he has a spot in the rotation and even if he did, he can't strike out anyone and last year's ERA is a mirage.

Hank (Tennessee): How many games does Troy Tulowitzki play in 2016?

Greg Wellemeyer: 130

Andre Dawson (The Ivy): IMO, Andrew Benintendi has the tools and makeup to be the next fantasy star... What do you project for him statistically?

Greg Wellemeyer: I am also very high on Benintendi. I think he could turn in a season or two of .300 batting average and 20+ home runs at his peak.

Ronnie (Michigan): Who is one prospect that most people would be down on but you would instead be bullish about?

Greg Wellemeyer: Well, if you read my third base rankings today you might have been surprised by my ranking of Moran. I saw him play a bit when he was at UNC and I think he will hit at the major league level with more power than he's shown so far. I don't think he's a star, but I think he's been unfairly discounted for narrative-based reasons.

tnyfn20 (RVA): Will BAL usage of Kevin Gausman come back to haunt them?

Greg Wellemeyer: The instinct is to say yes because of Baltimore's recent history with Bundy and Harvey but are we sure that's Baltimore's fault? I honestly don't know enough to have a strong opinion. Pitchers break. Without having any idea what their player development program is, I find randomness and coincidence as or more compelling than narrative. So, yeah, I don't know with Gausman. If he's not good, maybe he's just not good. Or maybe Baltimore ruined him. Too many variables in place to know.

pigbird (NYC): How do you feel about Erasmo Ramirez this year? After two bad starts, he did very well for the rest of the year, including a significant increase in his groundball rate. Would you keep him for $10 in an AL only Roto league?

Greg Wellemeyer: Someone pointed out to me recently that Erasmo's strikeout rate is low given his whiff rate, and I think that was a good observation. I'm still tentative here but Mike's valuations had him at $15 last season, so I think he's a keep at $10.

krrtaa (South Jersey): Hey Greg, thanks for the chat! Matt Adams. Will he get 450 AB's this year? any chance he gets traded? Strange situation, IMO.

Greg Wellemeyer: I don't think he'll be traded but your guess is as good as mine on usage. I think asking for 450 ABs is probably asking at bit much. The Cards have a pretty flexible roster.

JoeRandom (San Jose): your personal favorite prospects outside of the top 101?

Greg Wellemeyer: I'm terrible at this off the top of my head. Demi Orimoloye, Harrison Bader, and Jharel Cotton are some personal favorites that are probably well off the 101.

Ernie (Dover, DE): Greg, Please rank the following OFers in terms of fantasy impact: Nick Williams, Brett Phillips and Manuel Margot. Thanks

Greg Wellemeyer: Williams, Margot, Phillips

DavidMGibson (Home of the BC Manatees): Can a healthy Archie Bradley be a solid (better than league average) contributor to the D-Backs?

Greg Wellemeyer: In the bullpen? Sure.

Delearyous (Delaware): Thoughts on Kolek and Honeywell? Do you see Trey Mancini and Renato Nunez as future starters?

Greg Wellemeyer: I don't like Kolek at all. As required by my contract with the BP fantasy team, I love Honeywell. Yeah, I can see both Mancini and Nunez as second division starters.

Cal Guy (Cal): Hi Greg, Please rank Tanaka, Gausman, and K. Hendricks in a dynasty league. Thanks.

Greg Wellemeyer: Tanaka, Hendricks. Gausman. Really wanted to reverse the last two but Hendricks was excellent in 2015 and I want to see it from Gausman before I (re-)invest.

Ronnie (Michigan): So if you're so bullish on Colin Moran I'm curious as how you would grade out his tools and future role.

Greg Wellemeyer: I think he's an adequate starter if he can play even passable defense at third, which is all Houston needs, really. They have plenty of star power everywhere else.

Wally (LA): With our new prospects draft approaching, I need to make room for two MiLB spots. Which two get the axe? Adam Walker, Tyler Goeddel, Tyler White or Alex Blandino? If I had to guess, it'll be Benintendi and someone like Naylor or Austin Riley replacing them.

Greg Wellemeyer: Goeddel was taken in the Rule 5, so I'd probably hold him and see if he can stick. Blandino is the other keep here but I can't wait to see what Tyler White does this year.

Viktor (Baltimore): Do you think Isan Diaz is a year away from becoming a Victor Robles type hype skyrocketing up the charts?

Greg Wellemeyer: In fantasy, maybe. He's not nearly the defender Robles is, so I can't see him making the kind of jump Robles did on "real life" lists.

Patrick (Dallas): Greg, how does the rise of Victor Robles last season and into the offseason compare to the rise of Raimel Tapia from a few years back? I remember Tapia was pretty hyped up a few years ago, and Robles is receiving huge hype right now. I'm just worried about Robles power development. Does he develop 15-20 HR power?

Greg Wellemeyer: Piggybacking on my last answer, part of what is driving Robles up lists is his premium speed and defense, which Tapia doesn't have. No, I don't think Robles will be a 15-20 HR hitter but he'll affect the game in almost every other way.

Erik (Houston): Has Kyle Zimmer lost any luster? Does he still have top of the rotation upside?

Greg Wellemeyer: Sure, any time a prospect struggles to stay healthy as much as Zimmer has, some the shine comes off. I don't know if I'd go so far as to say top of the rotation upside at this point, but I do think there is still plenty of promise.

Roger (Ohio): Any way a US president could ever get Pete Rose's MLB reinstatement done via executive action?

Greg Wellemeyer: I can't imagine any presidential candidate would ever align himself with Pete Ro....say what? Oh, Donald Trump is still hanging around?

Ivan (Garlstedt): Is Kevin Maitan still developing as a beast of his draft class?

Greg Wellemeyer: Man, there are a whole lot of people that want to know about Maintan. The truth is that I have no idea.

Martin (Boston): Is Anthony Alford also in the same class as Victor Robles?

Greg Wellemeyer: Certainly, and I prefer Alford. How quickly he progressed last season is incredible given how little focus he'd given baseball prior to 2015.

Greg Wellemeyer: Alright, everyone. I'd love to stay and answer a few more but I have to run and finish something that will be up at the site tomorrow. If you liked the top 101 visualizations from earlier this week, I think you should check in tomorrow. Thanks for hanging out and for the great questions. Go Panthers!