Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Bret Sayre

Chat: Bret Sayre

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Monday September 21, 2015 8:30 PM ET chat session with Bret Sayre.

Bret Sayre: I've got Dallas Keuchel on the TV, a glass of Diet Sierra Mist in my hand, so that means it's time to party. Let's chat.

Mike Ivie (San Francisco): What can we expect from Yasmany Tomas from here on out? Can he tap in to that power more next year? Some of the Cubans have taken a year or so to get their bearings. His 2nd half has been bad but what do we have here?

Bret Sayre: I think we've seen both the good and bad from Tomas this year, but it's important to remember that he's just 24 and was not a finished product when he arrived from Cuba. I think he will tap into the power as he gets more comfortable with the speed of the MLB game, but the plate discipline may just be what it is. Realistically, he can be a .260-.270 hitter with 20 homers in the medium-term.

holmesp2001 (St Louis): I'm trying to decide if Javier Baez is a guy I can depend on to start for my dynasty team at 2B next year. I've listened to many of your podcasts and you've tagged him as someone that you would jump on as a sleeper. What are your expectations for Baez? He's obviously made adjustments since his 40% strikeout rate rookie season. Should fantasy owners expect Baez to be the guy we thought he would be and the guy your BP staff thought he would be when he was on top of most of your dynasty/fantasy 101 rankings?

Bret Sayre: I think if you're relying on Baez to be the stud that many thought he would be two years ago, you're very likely to be disappointed. That said, the adjustments he's making are starting to show and I think he has a reasonable chance to be a top-10 second baseman next year.

Nick (Dallas): How good can Lewis Brinson be? He reminds me a lot of Adam Jones. Does he have that type of ceiling if everything clicks?

Bret Sayre: For me, they're pretty different players, especially from a fantasy sense. Jones has been a very consistent .280-ish hitter the last half-decade or so and Brinson, even with the improvements in his hit tool, doesn't project to do that at the major league level. Even outside the average, I think Brinson's fantasy value sits more on the speed side than the power side right now, unlike Jones, who is the opposite. That said, the upside is a fantasy stud, no matter how that value breaks out.

Powow22 (AZ): What are your thoughts on some of the top young OF prospects. Will we be seeing mazara, judge, nick williams, zimmer, frazier in the bigs anytime soon? Who do you think has the highest ceiling? Who is the safest?

Bret Sayre: I think we'll see Mazara, Judge and Zimmer in the majors as soon as the first half of next year. The others have the talent to force the issue in 2016, but I'd be more comfortable projecting 2017 ETAs. The safest of that group is Mazara, and the guy with the highest upside might just be Mazara as well. I guess you could say I like Mazara a lot.

Han Shen (Los Angeles): Future: Buxton or Gallo? Why? What is % either bust?

Bret Sayre: Still Buxton for me, and not particularly close. The percentage depends what you consider a bust. If we're just talking "won't be a shallow mixed league starter," I'd put Buxton at 30 percent and Gallo at 40 percent. Buxton is extraordinarily talented, and the speed can prop up his value even as he ramps up to his eventual peak.

neph27 (The cmbl): how early are you jumping on Kevin maitan in deep, deep, deep leagues in next year's rookie draft?

Bret Sayre: Not nearly as early as the guy who overdrafts him. J2 players are still very risky and they come with extreme ETAs.

Mike (CT): Hi! I rebuilt my team this season after falling into last place by a LOT, and then basically tanked to get Moncada with the first pick. I traded away a lot of vets, so now I have a stacked farm. After I clinched the first pick, I kind of tried again, and went undefeated in my last four matchups (all playoff teams). I kind of feel like a jerk for doing that, but I realized that my team isn't half bad. My lineup is Sal Perez, Chris Davis, Odor, Kang, Longoria, Calhoun, Pollock, Pence, Eaton, Fowler. My pitching is horrid, but is it crazy to think about selling my farm that I just painstakingly rebuilt to try and compete next year?

Bret Sayre: That's a pretty solid lineup, so what I'd do is take a shot on some cheaper pitching options with upside and see where it gets you after a couple of months. Then if things are looking good for 2016, push in and mow em down. Farms are there to build winners, not to grow winners.

PompeyCanuck (Ottawa): I can keep one of the following in my pool: Tanaka, Quintana, or Rodon. Looking for the most production next season, would Tanaka be the one to keep?

Bret Sayre: If you're looking for 2016 production, I'd take Tanaka. That said, his risk hasn't magically gone away just because it looks like he'll make it through 2015 unscathed.

username49 (ohio): Non fantasy question, but if the season ended today, could someone really justify giving the AL ROY award to either Correa or Sano instead of Lindor?

Bret Sayre: Absolutely, you could justify it, at least in Correa's case. Both have been wonderful, and it's really incredible to think about the amount of young talent in the majors today.

Mike (MN): Could you comment on Buxton's disastrous debut with the Bat? It seems like close to the worst case scenario compared to what he was doing in AAA, as well as what most scouts and fantasy experts expected ... Which leads to - normal adjustment for a player without much upper minors experience?

Bret Sayre: Lots of questions about Buxton, so here's the entirety of my thoughts on this. He's had so few at bats in the majors that he's still rookie eligible if he stopped playing today. And if he did that, he'd still be the best prospect in baseball, in my opinion. Worrying about him right now isn't worth the brain space.

rpo (LA): Keeper question- who would you rather have Kang or Revere for next year only?

Bret Sayre: Pre-injury, I would have said Kang. Now, it has to be Revere because of Kang's uncertainty at the start of 2016.

Frau (Orlando): Is Aaron Hicks a future 10/10 JAG, 20/20 All-Star, or 30/30 HOF...asking for a friend

Bret Sayre: I'll split the difference between JAG and All-Star and say he can go 15-15, or maybe 15-20.

Bill (Ohio): Could you justify cutting Pujols for any of Valencia, Lind, Pearce, Forsythe, Bird?

Bret Sayre: Not only could I justify cutting Pujols for Adam Lind, but I'd recommend it. Lind has been a better fantasy first baseman than Pujols this year. All members of the #AdamLindAppreciationSociety step forward.

bankeravp5 (My living room): Dynasty where we keep 5 minor leaguers...I've graduated Scwarber and Correa this year...will pick up 2 to replace them, but also have Dahl, Tim Anderson and Hunter Harvey...with Harvey injuries, should I replace him too?

Bret Sayre: If it's five minor leaguers, no way I'm keeping Hunter Harvey. Cut and run. You can do better.

Grizz (Chicago): Thoughts on Trey Mancini? Should he be owned in dynasty?

Bret Sayre: Our new prospect team member, Ezra Wise, just wrote about him in pretty great detail today. I think he's ownable in leagues that roster 250-ish prospects, but outside of that, I'm not interested.

neph27 (The cmbl): What sort of line represents the upside for Victor robles?

Bret Sayre: If I had to put a line on it, I'd say a Conga Line.

Brad (DC): The hype real on Victor Robles?

Bret Sayre: Yes, there's is absolutely a lot of hype on Victor Robles.

Andrew (NY): I keep hearing about Victor Robles....Hoe good is this kid?

Bret Sayre: I keep hearing about him too! What are the odds?

Chris (Nats Park): Do you think Victor Robles will develop enough power to become a superstar? If so, does he rival Buxton in terms of ultimate ceiling?

Bret Sayre: I love that there are so many Victor Robles questions in my timeline that I can throw out three of them, not answer them and still have a few left. The power is the big question at this point. If he's a 10-15 home run hitter, he's a really good prospect, but not a fantasy savior that many are hoping for. If he can hit 20, then sure. For me, he doesn't rival Buxton's upside in any single fantasy category, and if people are buying that sort of hype on Robles right now, I'd be selling him this offseason.

majortom (space): Which breakout specs are you ... selling?

Bret Sayre: Do they have to be breakout specs? Guys I'd be testing the waters on, who are generally regarded as high-end fantasy prospects, are Julio Urias, Tyler Glasnow, and Hunter Harvey (if you can get anything for him at this point). I'd sell almost any breakout spec if people are too amped up on them (like Robles).

DBrown (Pittsburgh): Gilbert Lara started out hot, hitting .400+ after about 100~ ABs. Then hit under .200 for a long while. Future star who got tired or overwhelmed stateside at age 17.... Or just chill and it's too early to tell anything.

Bret Sayre: Chill and believe in the power of the Lara.

John (Trenton): Please rank Robles, Alford, Mateo, and Kepler for fantasy purposes. Thanks.

Bret Sayre: Alford, Mateo, Robles, Kepler.

Max (NY): Thoughts on Ken Giles and Osuna as dynasty closers?

Bret Sayre: I really like Giles, but there's only so much investing you should do in dynasty closers in general. He won't be a top-100 player despite his age and performance level. Osuna is a clear step down from Giles and probably won't crack the top-200. Age is much less important when it comes to closers as they usually break faster than they age.

Jesse (NY): Triple Prong Bogaerts question How much do you think Bogaerts will come back to earth next year? He can't keep hitting like this and walking so little, right (right?)? Does he ever develop power or is he just a doubles guy? And other than guys named Correa, who would you rather have at SS in the AL for the next 5 years?

Bret Sayre: I don't think Bogaerts comes back to earth at all next year. The average may not stay completely in tact, but I absolutely do believe the power is coming (he's still just 22). And no, I'd take him over any other AL shortstop not named Correa.

Mike (Chi Town): What does the future hold for Carlos Rodon? Top ace?

Bret Sayre: I think Rodon ends up as a really good SP2 at peak, and I also don't expect that to happen in 2016.

Chris (Baltimore): Are you worried about Raul Mondesi not living up to all the hype? I realize that he is incredibly young, but at some point we have to start worrying about his (lack of) offensive production, right? His .246 AVG and .293 OBP in his minor league career leave a lot to be desired. Is he a top 50 prospect in dynasty leagues? Would you take him over the next wave of young shortstops (Torres, Albies, Mateo, etc)?

Bret Sayre: We're past that at this point, I think. He wasn't in my mid-season top-50 and he almost certainly won't in the off-season. I'd have him behind Torres and Mateo for sure. Albies, on the other hand, is someone who could be the next Mondesi.

Mike (Chi Town): When is Eddy Julio Martinez going to sign? Is he a top prospect once he signs?

Bret Sayre: If I knew, I'd start playing the lottery. It should be at some point this off-season, and when he does sign, he'll probably crack the back end of the top-50 barring any new information/reports on him.

Davin (Pittsburgh ): Roman Quinn - Odds of everyday player by July 2017

Bret Sayre: In the majors? 30 percent. Anywhere? 80 percent.

Jack (FL): Should I be holding onto Brandon Drury in a 200-prospect league?

Bret Sayre: Absolutely you should.

Davin (Pittsburgh): Thoughts on NL catcher prospects for fantasy: A Garcia (SF), Knapp (Phi), Dom Nunez (Col), A Barnes (LA), W Contreras (Cubs), R McGuire (Pit)

Bret Sayre: I still hold out a little more hope for McGuire's bat than his inclusion in this group would show. That said, he's not far ahead of Knapp for me and Contreras is a pretty interesting guy as well.

Davin (Pittsburgh): Name some guys who is not currently a closer, but could be on opening day?

Bret Sayre: Joakim Soria, Tyler Clippard, Wade Davis and does Koji Uehara count?

John (Trenton): Odor or Schoop in dynasty?

Bret Sayre: Odor, and not particularly close for me.

Max (Texas): Any idea when the team prospect lists will start to roll out?

Bret Sayre: Nope! But I can tell you that we've started to work on them.

rpo (LA): How would rank Rodon and Richards for 2016? Has Rodons ascent last two months vaulted him ahead of Richards?

Bret Sayre: No, it hasn't. I still like Richards a touch more just for 2016.

Cal Guy (Cal): Hi Bret, How would you compare Giolito's ceiling to recent top pitching prospects such as Cole and Syndergaard? And what is his realistic outcome?

Bret Sayre: It's on par, and it's ace upside. Realistically, you should never expect elite starting pitching prospects to actually turn into reliable aces.

Matt (NYC): How do you value injured guys like Jurickson Profar and Jameson Taillon in dynasty leagues? Does their talent justify holding onto them despite their long history of injuries?

Bret Sayre: It's different for hitters than it is for pitchers. I'm more willing to gamble on hitters while they are injured, as I really want to see mound dwellers return and get a sense for their current profile before investing. I'd still be holding on to both of them in leagues, but if I had to choose between the two, it's Profar for me.

Arismendy (Al(can't)ara): Should I give up on me?

Bret Sayre: Nah, not yet.

Davin (Pittsburgh): Lots of decent catching prospects seem to be popping up these days. (Some orgs like Nats, Phils, Giants, and Rox have several) Some are bat-first and may not last, some advanced too fast to tell bat potential, etc. What are some you have an eye on for fantasy?

Bret Sayre: Catching prospects are a fickle bunch, and honestly, I'm not very interested in investing in almost any of the guys remaining in the minors at this point. Between the long lead time to fantasy relevance and lack of high-end options, I'd rather just let catchers be someone else's problem.

John (Trenton): Which two would you keep out of Bird, Grichuk, Piscotty, and David Peralta? Thanks.

Bret Sayre: I'd be very tempted to keep the two Cardinals.

Snowborne (Pittsburgh): What to do with Dylan bundy on my dynasty team? I can only keep 25 players would I be crazy not to keep him? Should I consider keeping prospects like L Brinson b Phillips o Arcia over him

Bret Sayre: It's almost impossible to know what's going to happen here. At least aside from the fact that he'll either be on the Orioles in 2016 or he'll be on the DL (he's out of options). I'm still holding for now, but I'm also skeptical that we'll ever see him come close to expectations.

Tom (Cal): Any reason to hang onto Marisnick in dynasty? So tantalizing, but so... .243 average

Bret Sayre: In a deeper mixed league, yes I'd hang on. But in a shallower league, you can afford to move on, sadly.

Davin (Pittsburgh): AZ claims to be moving O'Brien back behind plate next year. A) AZ clearly doesn't value catchers..... B) Best path to get him on field in majors.... C) his K% sucks and he won't make an impact at any position D) all of the above

Bret Sayre: It's B, but he's also behind a rejuvenated Welington Castillo, so I don't see it. Maybe they think he can get to the point where he can catch 20-30 games a year? Doesn't make sense to me, and I think the bat can be a poor man's Evan Gattis.

BC (Urbandale): We all know Carlos Correa is the best defensive shortstop in the game. But how close or I guess how far behind that title is Addison Russell?

Bret Sayre: We do? Correa is noticeably behind Russell defensively for me, but I'm assuming you meant Francisco Lindor.

ColeWhittier (Pasadena, CA): Can you rank these OFs for future: Eddie Rosario, Odubel Herrera, Aaron Altherr, Preston Tucker, Pete O'Brien.

Bret Sayre: I'd go Rosario, Herrera, Tucker, Altherr, O'Brien.

James (Texas): JP Crawford - what kind of fantasy player will he be?

Bret Sayre: I think he could be a .280 hitter with 15 homers and 20 steals.

bankeravp5 (Cincy): In a Dynasty, 15 keepers....likely tossin Mccan back since I have Schwarber....but at 1b I can likely keep one of Duda or C Santana....9 offensive categories. Who you like?

Bret Sayre: I very slightly prefer Duda, but if strikeouts and walks are categories, I might lean Santana.

Sam (CT): I'm rebuilding in dynasty and have Longo. Nobody seems to want him (or at least they didn't at the trade deadline...I got offers like Daniel Norris for Longo straight up). What do I do with him?

Bret Sayre: Wait for the right opportunity and enjoy above-average performance until then. Third base is a mess these days.

Dave (NY): How do I value Fowler and Eaton in dynasty? Are they both OF3?

Bret Sayre: Yea, that sounds about right to me. Thought I'd put Fowler over Eaton.

dsweeney61 (Rockford): Does Dilson Herrerra become an above average fantasy player?

Bret Sayre: Above average? Probably not. He can certainly be serviceable in most leagues once he gets the opportunity though.

dsweeney61 (Rockford): Random question: how many total players have to be on a roster in a 10 team dynasty league for you to consider it a "deep" league.

Bret Sayre: As a rough guide, I'd say a league that rosters 600 players is deep, but it's generally a number of teams thing rather than a roster depth thing.

Tim (Yes): With Giants having worked magic with uninspiring profiles, is it worth seeing what Mac Williamson can do?

Bret Sayre: Nope, but I've been wrong before with that organization.

Davin (Pittsburgh ): Just wanted to say thanks for a great year of coverage. Best site on the Internet for merging legit scouting/prospect info along with fantasy. You guys are improving every year!

Bret Sayre: Thanks! Really appreciate that.

Bret Sayre: On that note, it's been fun (and it's been a while). Let's do this again soon. Thanks for all the great questions.