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Chat: BP Draft Chat

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Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Monday June 08, 2015 7:00 PM ET chat session with BP Draft Chat.


Al Skorupa and David Lee will be joining us for a draft night chat.

BP Draft Chat: It's Draft Day 1. David Lee checking in to tonight's live draft chat.

Bob (Cincy): Do you think fantasy baseball has increased fan interest in the game of baseball, as well as ruined the game at the same time?

BP Draft Chat: I think it's great for the game. Fantasy has made the NFL (an inferior product IMO) exponentially more popular than it was. Draft Kings and daily fantasy baseball has the chance to do the same thing to baseball over next few year, too - AS

Jmmoore912 (Dallas): Who do the Rangers take?

BP Draft Chat: I've seen Dillon Tate linked to the Rangers. If Brendan Rodgers falls, he'd fit the bill. It's tough to pass on Rodgers at 4 if he's there, but Tate is an athletic power arm. - DL

Joey (Augusta): Will I get drafted?

BP Draft Chat: Reports indicate your makeup is questionable, so I can't say for sure. Enjoy the draft, Joey. - DL

Bob (Cincy): What I meant by ruin it was are people having these unfair expectations of players because of their fantasy squads and therefore are only worried about Player X on his fantasy team?

BP Draft Chat: I'm sure that will happen, but I like people paying attention to baseball regardless of how they're enjoying it. If you're an AL east coast fan, fantasy can get you paying attention to a random NL west coast game and that's a good thing. The patient fantasy owner will be rewarded though, because you're right that people demand immediate production and results in a fantasy context. -AS

Pargo (Chicago): Thoughts on Buehler/his ceiling?

BP Draft Chat: He has plus raw stuff and plus velo. The concerns are durability and pitchability. So perfect world is probably a No. 2 Starter, but I think a No. 4 is a lot more likely.

Swanson off the board. It's the right pick. Lots of rumors about Arizona getting cute with the pick and doing some underslot deals, etc... I don't think this was the right year or draft for that. They got a very good player here who isn't a long way from helping. Good pick. -AS

Pargo (Chicago): Thoughts on Buehler/his ceiling?

BP Draft Chat: The frame/small waist concern some, but I like the quick arm, repeatable delivery and athleticism. Big fastball, starter's arsenal. Curveball can reach plus behind a plus fastball. If he remains a starter, I see a mid-rotation arm. - DL

robhammett (Chicago): Would you say that, in the current era, 100% of teams take the "best player available" in the first round, rather than a position of need at the MLB level?

BP Draft Chat: In the 1st round Its largely true, but really depends what you mean by BPA. It's not best talent - because so much of baseball evaluation is based on makeup, drive and the level of confidence evaluators have in the player.

After the 1st, teams give a lot of lip service to taking the best player available, but it's really about the best player that fits what they like - and for some the best player that fits what they like with the attitude they like and plays to the strengths of their player development, etc...

Bregman and Rodgers both gone. Not a surprise. The strenght of this draft class was these shortstops, even if they're mostly near average run types who may stick rather than surefire plus defensive shortstops. -AS

Joey (Augusta): This is an outrage. I haven't allowed a baserunner in 14 years.

BP Draft Chat: Very impressive.

Here's some Kyle Tucker video from last Spring. Big fan of that pick: https://youtu.be/74kR7g5cZL8 -AS

Jack (LA): How surprising is Tucker to HOU at 5? Thought they'd take Benintendi.

BP Draft Chat: I had Tucker as the next position player to get chosen, so I like the pick. I'm a huge fan of the swing, which is one of the purest in the draft. He's going to hit a lot, and he's going to grow into solid power. I expect Benintendi to go soon, possibly in a couple picks. - DL

bdiamond (CT): Is Rodgers a top-30 prospect with Colorado?

BP Draft Chat: As in top 30 in the game? Probably pretty close for me, but I'd guess he will. Usually the top 3-5 guys in a draft seem to find their way into that range. I think the relative strength of this draft will be probably reflected by no prospects falling into the top 15 or so this year. If you think Rodgers is a role 6+ (1st division SS/3B) type he pretty much will have to because our top prospect lists rarely have 50 of those types. -AS

Grasul (MN): Can we just presume Tyler Jay is a soft throwing lefty aspiring to be crafty drafted by the Twins?

BP Draft Chat: That may have been the case in the past, but Jay certainly doesn't fit that mold. Hard-throwing left-hander capable of hitting 95 and reaching 97 with a hard breaking ball. He has a very quick arm. - DL

Grasul (MN): Can we just presume Tyler Jay is a soft throwing lefty aspiring to be crafty drafted by the Twins?

BP Draft Chat: Jay is definitely not a soft tosser, but I'm sure he was happy to be drafted by the Twins. -AS

Guy (TX): Who are the Phillies taking?

BP Draft Chat: I've seen toolsy guys linked to the Phillies at 10. Stephenson is possible. Buehler, Harris could go there. - DL

Jon (Washington): Everything I've read indicates that this is one of the weakest drafts in history. Given the compensation for not signing your top pick would it make sense for a team to purposefully do so to get a pick in next year's draft? It's not that different from teams in football trading a pick this year for one next year (although they are typically trading up, not one pick down).

BP Draft Chat: People seem to throw out this scenario every year... but I just don't know it's worth it. The talent upgrade is a dicey proposition, and there's such a negative stigma attached to not signing your 1st pick. Fans HATE when these guys don't sign. And there's such tremendous pressure on front offices and GMs to win now. You're already drafting kids for the next regime a good portion of the time, so its tough to push that window back *another* year. -AS

John (LA): Would Eddy Julio Martinez have gone first if he was in this draft?

BP Draft Chat: Man, he'd pretty much have to be off the board already off what I've seen. Probably top 5 picks. -AS

Alec (Illinois): Is Allard a top-50 prospect if healthy? Seems like great stuff

BP Draft Chat: I think he has top-50 upside if he puts it together. I've heard him tabbed as high as a possible No. 2 starter if he reaches his ceiling. Excellent FB/CB, starter's arsenal with command. High-upside pick for the Braves. - DL

Steve (Minn): Damn, I totally forgot about Martinez! Is he a top-100 prospect presuming he is signed with a team? What's his ETA? (Sorry, not a draft question!)

BP Draft Chat: Definitely a top 100 Id think. Obviously I like to see guys live first... but looks like he's not quite Moncada, but it's that sort of situation. LOUD raw tools. Think he'll need some time in the minors to adjust to America, develop his baseball skills. -AS

Ryan (PA): Is daz basically a lock now to go 37?

BP Draft Chat: Seems pretty reasonable at this point. The Braves could have been an option before they went with Allard, who represents a more flexible option. He could be on the board a while. - DL

Ryan (PA): Is there going to be a run on college pitchers here or will we see more prep arms continue to be drafted?

BP Draft Chat: Should see a few college arms go off the board soon. I'm curious when Jon Harris will go. I like the arm. Should see a few college bats go soon, too. - DL

John (MIL): ETA on Kaprielian? They make it sound like (On MLB Network) that he'll be up in the next year or two. Is he basically a number 3 starter upside and number 3 starter realistic?

BP Draft Chat: Possibly the safest bet to be a mid-rotation starter in the draft. The stuff is solid-average with no real standout pitch, but he throws strikes and should log innings. If the Yankees wanted a safe college pitcher who has a good shot to be a 3/4 guy, they got him. I'd say around 2018. - DL

John (MIL): ETA on Kaprielian? They make it sound like (On MLB Network) that he'll be up in the next year or two. Is he basically a number 3 starter upside and number 3 starter realistic?

BP Draft Chat: The stuff is fairly pedestrian. I don't think he has a clear plus pitch (and I'd like to see that if I'm giving a guy role 6/#3 SP). I also worry the velo will back up a bit on pro rest. I think he's more of a #4 SP, but he's safe, will pitch in the big leagues and yes, he won't take particularly long to get there. -AS

Ryan (PA): Seems like some people loved Newman while others were less sold. Where do you come down on him and is he a SS long term?

BP Draft Chat: He's a contact-oriented hitter with 30 power, but scouts love the hit tool. Some are split on whether he stays at shortstop, but I've seen more who say he does stay at shortstop, and I think he will. Big thing with Newman is the big-time makeup. I've heard scouts rave for days on the leadership aspect. I like the pick for the Pirates. - DL

Show Time (Minor Leagues): How would you rank the top talents in this draft (particularly the top hitters/top 3 shortstops) in terms of MLB ETA? In other words, if you're a fantasy player looking for immediate impact (not necessarily ceiling), how do you rank these guys?

BP Draft Chat: It's not a strong draft for that. The only guys who really stand out as guys who can move fast and play any kind of major starting role soon are Swanson and Fulmer. Happ maybe. Martin and Newman distantly behind. Nobody else really fits in terms of help soon OR impact. It's possible Jay doesn't take all that long... but man, he's going to need a few full years to get full ramped up in terms of workload. And I'd want to stretch him out relatively slowly to work on secondaries, etc... Bregman jammed behind a lot of talent(Correa and Altuve pretty good). Benintendi relatively raw and needs baseball reps/ABs. -AS

username49 (ohio): Indians guy is hearing Aiken already has a deal with Indians for around slot (2.4). Was that the expectation for him, or were people thinking more/less?

BP Draft Chat: I haven't seen anything to think it'll stray from slot very much. I think his spot in the draft and money were both determined in part by how teams viewed his medicals and whether they felt it was the right fit for their organization at their slot. - DL

Ron (Texarkana): Does Daz Cameron really go to FSU if the money isn't as much as he'd like, or is this situation more similar to JD Drew, where he would sit out a whole year, even after being drafted?

BP Draft Chat: Well, he sure could if he wanted. B-ref has his dad's career earnings as $76,384,000. I think both options would be in play, but usually guys who get this kind of hype end up not doing three years of school. Longer it goes the more likely he goes to school. He could always go the JC route, too. Southern Nevada keeps pumping out top picks! -AS

jp (NH): Any comp come to mind for Swanson if he reaches his ceiling? What is the floor?

BP Draft Chat: I think Swanson is a first-division shortstop who will hit for average, hit a few more homers than some expect, and he'll provide value with the run and defense. He's a polished up-the-middle player not far from contributing. The polish and broad set of tools makes me think he'll at the very least reach solid regular. - DL

LucasDad (Mpls): Where would you place Jay in order of Twins pitching prospects?

BP Draft Chat: On profile basis, I'd put him only behind Stewart and Berrios, with the concession I haven't seen Gonsalves and I could certainly imagine liking him as much or more. -AS

ravenight (Out-of-New-York): Speak to me of Desmond Lindsay

BP Draft Chat: Lindsay is a toolsy athlete who dealt with hamstring problems during the spring. He's capable of flashing several tools but doesn't have one standout tool. Raw defender at times, probably a right fielder. Solid hitter with some raw power. - DL

Lenny (Dallas): How quickly could Tate advance? Like Chi Chi Gonzalez quick?

BP Draft Chat: Tate has a power arm with inconsistent command at times, and there's effort in the delivery. His development depends in part on how the command develops. If he remains a starter, it could take some time, maybe around a 2018 ETA. - DL

BP Draft Chat: That's it for Day 1 of the draft. Thanks to everyone for asking questions and reading.

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