Baseball Prospectus - Chat with J.P. Breen

Chat: J.P. Breen

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday June 10, 2015 2:00 PM ET chat session with J.P. Breen.

J.P. Breen: Good afternoon y'all. Let's do this thing.

Ron (Texarkana): Out of the entire draft class, who's bat plays, or projects best at the MLB level?

J.P. Breen: Dansby Swanson went #1 for a reason. He's the cream of the crop and the best bet to make an impact at the major-league level; however, Brendan Rodgers is a power bat in a tremendous offensive environment in Colorado. Don't sleep on Ian Happ, though, even if the power isn't significant. The dude knows how to hit.

Fan (Georgia ): Should I sell Matt Moore now in Dynasty?

J.P. Breen: I don't think so. Other owners will certainly be interested because he's poised to return. The value you'd receive, though, is marginal, at best. You're much better off hoping he returns to the bigs, puts together a strong couple starts, and then selling high. Of course, there's also the counterpoint that Matt Moore is pretty good and should be held. I'd personally lean toward the latter right now.

Colin (WI): Can we expect op-ed pieces from BP Milwaukee calling for the return of the ball in mitt logo?

J.P. Breen: BP Milwaukee is going to be a treat. I'm looking forward to serving as Managing Editor and one of the lead writers, and I've been able to put together a great team of writers. To answer your question more directly, though, yes. The Brewers should return to the ball-and-mitt logo. I don't consider contrary opinions to be valid.

Silverback38 (VA): What are your thoughts on the value of Yoan Moncada? Does he still have the same upside despite performance thus far and numerous errors (non-fantasy stat but affects playing time I would imagine)?

J.P. Breen: You're correct to pay attention to defensive deficiencies, but it's also important to remember that Moncada is 20 years old and adjusting to a new culture. It's far too early to be worried about him. In my mind, he's still between 100-125 in my personal dynasty rankings. A really good prospect -- just saddled with unfair expectations.

Mokajige (Sheboygan): Anything you can tell us about the Brewers third round pick Nash Walters?

J.P. Breen: The Brewers have reportedly been trying to focus on big-bodied pitchers, guys who are 6-foot-3 and above with big fastballs. Walters fits the bill. He has touched 95 mph, and scouts believe he has some velo in the tank. The secondaries are non-existent at this point, but the dude has huge arm strength and some projectability. Don't expect any consistency from him in the next couple years.

kiper90 (Rochester, NY): Hey J.P. Do you have any Low Minor, high ceiling prospects your a fan of and are looking to jump on before their stock gains recognition this season?

J.P. Breen: Gleyber Torres (SS - CHC) is someone to pay attention to, though he's starting to get attention from die-hard fans in deeper leagues. Luis Ortiz (SP - TEX) should be owned in almost all deeper dynasty leagues. It's been a tough start to the season, but I'm not ready to give up on Magnerius Sierra (OF - STL), either. I think he has really nice fantasy potential.

Basil (Mid-Tex): Who is the next big international hitting prospects we should be looking out for?

J.P. Breen: I mean, Yulieski Gourriel (3B - Cuba) is the obvious bat that comes to mind, but he's 30 years old and no guarantee that he'll come to the United States to play. This is far from my specialty, but we keep hearing a ton about Eddy Julio Martinez, Lucius Fox, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

JasonPennini (Denver): I noticed Lance McCullers had thrown 34 changeups and 1 sinker through all his starts this year (excluding his last start). Then in his 6/8 start he threw 23 change-ups and 2 sinkers. (Brooks Baseball). Do you think his change-up is good enough to enable him to stay in the rotation long-term?

J.P. Breen: The change-up has always flashed, so it's great that he's showing some faith in it. He's getting about a 15 percent whiff rate on his changeup. It's been somewhat effective. The fact that he's throwing it is a better sign than the ultimate results at this point. I'll readily admit that I didn't see McCullers having any success in the rotation this early. I didn't believe in the command. Thus far, though, he's been brilliant. The Astros clearly knew what they were doing (shocker). We shouldn't write off McCullers at all.

LoyalRoyal (Kansas): J.P, really enjoy the monthly snapshot pieces. Would love to see the buy low extended to say three or so with your thoughts as done for top 5. On that note, who are some other buy low candidates you like beyond those listed in today's article? Cheers

J.P. Breen: I was already at 2000+ words on the article, so I didn't want to bog things down with additional words on the buy-low candidates. I appreciate the interest, though! I'll certainly consider adding a short blurb on them going forward. Some other buy low candidates would include: Yan Gomes, Alexei Ramirez, Jimmy Nelson, and Desmond Jennings.

Chris (Jersey): Thoughts on Eddy Julio Martinez? How good can he be?

J.P. Breen: I haven't seen him, so all my thoughts will be filtered through the perspective of the Prospect Team and various scouting reports that I have read on other sites. He's a guy who sounds like he can hit for power and average and stick in center field, if everything clicks. That's an All-Star ceiling. I mean, MLB.com put an Andruw Jones comp on him. I'm not huge into comps, but that should speak to the level of excitement fans should have. We're largely speculating -- so things shouldn't be taken as gospel or pre-ordained -- but it seems the potential is massive.

Eric (LA): Corey Seager or Byron Buxton?

J.P. Breen: Give me Seager. I understand how exciting and electrifying Buxton can be, but I think Seager is the better bet to be above-average for the next decade. If he can stick at short for a few years, too, that's just icing on the cake. Fun fact: Zack Greinke identified Seager as the best bat prior to the draft in 2012.

Pelecos (Chicago): Could you help me get a job in chicago or

J.P. Breen: I'll go with the "or" part of the question, or whatever was going to follow it.

Adam Lind (MIL): Thanks for believing in me

J.P. Breen: Bro, I'm the co-founder of the #AdamLindAppreciationSociety with our fearless leader, Bret Sayre. You shouldn't be thanking me. We should be thanking you. And for all you unbelievers out there, Adam Lind has a 130 wRC+ through his first 210 plate appearances. Get on the bandwagon or gtfo.

BadgerNoonan (Chicago): Isn't it a bit early to say the Brewers "whiffed on Kodi Medeiros"?

J.P. Breen: I don't think so, given the concerns. I assume that you're addressing Chris Crawford's analysis from Tuesday. If one didn't like Medeiros due to his slight stature and unorthodox mechanics, causing one to believe he's ultimately a reliever down the line, I'm not sure statistics or performance is going to do much to change that. That is, I don't think Medeiros has done anything to quell the concerns that he's a future reliever, considering none of it stemmed from performance. Thus, I can completely understand why Crawford would consider Medeiros at #15 to be a whiff. You don't take a future reliever at #15. However, I'm not quite ready to lock him in that box. I'd reserve such criticism for the Jake Gatewood selection.

James (Texas): This Eddy Julio Martinez for real? Next Yoan Moncada?

J.P. Breen: A 20-year-old can't really be "for real" when he hasn't played stateside to this point and is projected to need a couple years in the minors. He'll certainly get the Moncada hype. I don't think they're similar players, though.

Colin (Chicago): What's a realistic return I should expect for Hanley or Carlos Gomez at this point in dynasty? Hanley loses his SS eligibility this year, hoping to move him soon to get some pitching.

J.P. Breen: Both are top-20 dynasty players. You should be looking for that type of value in return, if it's a one-for-one swap. If you're digging for prospects, though, you should reasonably expect two elite prospects in the return package. However, I wouldn't be so quick to bail on Hanley Ramirez, just because he's moving to OF eligibility. He's still a top-15 fantasy outfielder, when healthy.

David W (Atlanta, GA): Mr. Breen - was hoping you'd share your thoughts on AJ Pollock's breakout? His numbers don't seem especially fluky, except that he's AJ Pollock and seemingly shouldn't be this good. Are the Diamondbacks just the kings of unearthing the great hitting prospect that no one else believed in?

J.P. Breen: Consider this: through 287 PA in 2014, Pollock compiled a .372 wOBA with 7 home runs and 14 stolen bases. Through 237 PA in 2015, Pollock has a .374 wOBA with seven home runs and 14 stolen bases. He's in a phenomenal offensive environment in AZ and hits in front of one of the best offensive threats in baseball, Paul Goldschmidt. It's fantasy gold, as long as Pollock keeps running. He controls the strike zone well and handles righties well enough. The dude smashes lefties, though. He's hitting .396/.453/.604 against southpaws in 2015. Keep that in mind if you're a DFS player.

Grizz (Chi): How much more valuable is George Springer in a dynasty format than Corey Seager?

J.P. Breen: If Seager keeps his SS eligibility, it's not much. The tipping point, though, is that Springer will provide 20+ stolen bases. Seager isn't a five-category contributor, and while I'm concerned about Springer's batting average, it's not going to drag down his value. Seager stole six bases last year and has just one this year. He's a potential stud, but I'll usually side with the five-category contributor -- unless Seager sticks at SS, obviously. I'd put Seager around 45-50 overall. Springer is 25-30 for me.

DanDaMan (Sea Cliff): Yes, JP, I "need the extra punishment". In fact, an extra blurb on your "buy low" candidates is exactly what I'm looking for. How ever many you could provide would be much appreciated. Thanks

J.P. Breen: I'll definitely keep this in mind for next month. I'm glad people found the article useful. Granted, I might make terrible jokes throughout the "buy low" blurbs, just to ensure no one asks for them again. Either that, or I'll begin bringing in my passion for U.S. history into the fray. No one wants that.

Randy W (Las Vegas): Seems like the Brewers are doing OK in the draft. Have you been happy with their high round picks?

J.P. Breen: I think the Brewers have quietly had a lovely draft. They're doing what Ray Montgomery is known for -- which is selecting the talent that has somehow fallen through the cracks. This leads to extreme value buys. Trent Clark was perhaps the best value in the top-15 picks. Demi Orimoloye was perhaps one of the steals of the draft in Round 4, if he signs. All in all, I think the Brew Crew have a lot to be happy about.

Will (Chicago): Could you help me get a job in Chicago or Wisconsin? ideally baseball related but can be anything.

J.P. Breen: Will, my man. I'm unsure why people think I'm running an employment office in Chicago. I'm unqualified for many things. I'm especially unqualified to find jobs for other people.

Mokajige (Sheboygan): You dig the Brewers draft so far?

J.P. Breen: Yeah. I think the name of the game has been "value" for the Brewers. They stuck to their board very well and found potential impact talent beyond the first round. You can't ask for more than that.

Prospector (Empty Mine): Rank on offensive production the following emerging OF prospects: Bradley Zimmer, Billy McKinney, Austin Meadows, and Clint Coulter? Thanks...

J.P. Breen: Zimmer is #1 for me. I adore him. I'd probably go Zimmer, Meadows, McKinney, and Coulter. I'm still not sold on Coulter's ability to handle quality right-handers, which potentially limits him to a platoon-ish role as a corner outfielder. Still plenty of time for him to adjust and grow, though, obviously.

kylanje (FL): How do you view Jonathan Singleton in a OBP dynasty league?

J.P. Breen: I still have hope for Singleton, especially in an OBP dynasty league. The power is legit. The contact issues will always dog him, but if his ultimate upside is Chris Carter with a little better average, that's valuable in an offensive age that lacks huge power.

Tyler (Parts Unknown): The Brewers have once again drafted David Lucroy, is this further reassurance that Lucroy is not going anywhere?

J.P. Breen: I don't think the two are correlated. More than anything, the Brewers don't have to move Lucroy at this point and value his currency with the fan base. It's important to remember that baseball is a business, so as long as he's supremely affordable, the organization will not have their hand forced to move him. Plus, it's valuable to have a quality defensive catcher to mentor the young pitching prospects the Brewers will have to rely upon over the next half-decade.

Royal All-Stars (Stuffing the Ballet Box): Any predictions on how the Cubbies closer situation works?

J.P. Breen: PAGING MATT COLLINS AND THE CLOSER REPORT. I'm not qualified to answer this question. (I think Pedro Strop gets most of the chances, but I expect Maddon to use this opportunity to mix-and-match based on the situation. In short, I expect it to be maddening for fantasy owners.)

Alex (Towson, MD): Have you heard any reports on Anderson Espinoza? It seems his velocity has increased. What is his ultimate ceiling?

J.P. Breen: I haven't heard much about Espinoza this spring/summer. I know he's shown some feel for three pitches and reportedly throws in the low-90s. Given that he's only 6-foot, I'd temper too many expectations for him, as that's a really difficult frame to handle 200+ innings repeatedly. I'd just be guessing if I put a ceiling on him, so I'll refrain from doing that. Sorry, Alex.

Tyler (Somewhere in Wisconsin): Keith Law gave the Brewers very high marks on the 2015 draft, your initial reaction on the draft? Fastest prospect to move? Highest Ceiling? Highest Floor? Personal favorite pick?

J.P. Breen: I think Law is spot on. The Brewers have had a very nice draft, as I've said earlier in the chat. If he returns with a full bill of health, Nathan Kirby will likely be the fastest mover. As Crawford noted in his day-two analysis, though, left-hander Jake Drossner could move quickly if he transitions to the bullpen. The Brewers don't have a history of doing that, though. Highest ceiling is Trent Clark. If Demi had the same upside, he'd have also gone in the top-15. Highest floor is likely Kirby. Personal favorite is Clark. The Brewers org needed a guy with a feel for hitting, instead of raw power for days.

JP (Tx): Rank who you would be most likely to sell high on AL only 5x5 OPB but need pitching help, factoring in return value and ROS value if you dont trade Sal Perez, Prince Fielder, Moustakas, Teixeira

J.P. Breen: Yo, nice name. I'd sell high on Teixeira and Moustakas first and foremost, in that order. Fielder is a must-keep unless your return is a top-five pitcher. Perez won't bring back enough to offset his ROS value.

Will (Mass): I drafted correa in my dynasty league after he was drafted. should i be ashamed I feel like a proud parent?

J.P. Breen: I think you can be proud and feel a kind of connection, but unless you went through the terrors of potty training or the pains of giving birth, I think we should maybe hold off on the parental language. I haven't been a parent to this point, though, so what do I know? (The answer you're looking for is "nothing.")

Mokajige (Sheboygan): Not counting picks from today, who was your favorite Brewers draft pick that wasn't their 1st round, CB Lottery round, 2nd round, 3rd round, 5th round, 6th round, 7th round, 8th round, 9th round, or 10th round?

J.P. Breen: This is a tough question. I'll go with the Chorizo. He was a great pickup for the club, a real unheralded move that has resulted in an everyday starter for the Crew. Huge value in that.

Silverback38 (VA): Is there anything that Jason Heyward is doing that gives you confidence that he will perform towards anywhere near the expectations of him?

J.P. Breen: It totally depends on the expectations. They got totally out of whack after his strong 2012 season. Often, we assume that all young players *will* and *must* improve. We get caught assuming the development curve is a certainty, rather than a general rule. Heyward has seen his skills decline. He should be judged on his current skill set, not what we assumed he would be because he flourished in 2012. I can understand why fantasy owners would hold out hope that he turns the corner. I'm just not going to be the one investing in it.

Rich (Maryland): What are your opinions on JT Realmuto? Some commented on his speed setting him apart from peers, but he seems to have problems even getting on base. Is he a better bet than Hundley or Cervelli?

J.P. Breen: Realmuto is a better real-life catcher than a fantasy catcher, even if the speed is present. He won't likely hit for much power and makes too much weak contact due to his undisciplined approach at the plate. I think he's somewhat comparable to Cervelli at this point, but I'd prefer Hundley due to the Coors Field Effect (TM). I don't think Realmuto is a top-10 fantasy catcher in the next couple years.

Victor (Dumfries): Do you think Alex Gordon is finished or still recovering from wrist surgery?

J.P. Breen: He's certainly not finished. He has a .351 wOBA and is hitting .256/.371/.426 this season. In fact, his .170 ISO is right on par with his career-average of .167. This is what he is. If anything, fantasy owners should be frustrated that he's not running more. Offensively, though, this is what he is -- a .260 hitter with 17-20 homers and a handful of steals.

cyrthogg (Madison): When is it time for Milwaukee to recall Scooter Gennett from AAA? Or have they given up completely on him?

J.P. Breen: I don't think it's a pressing need to call up Gennett. The organization is letting him develop a rhythm in Colorado Springs' thin air, something he wasn't able to do in Milwaukee this year. The ship has sailed on him being an everyday option for the Brewers; however, I still think he can be handle the strong side of the platoon well enough to be a major leaguer. If his defense were league-average, I'd believe that even more strongly. Too much track record exists to think that he's suddenly forgotten how to hit, though. It will be there.

IgnitorKid (Wisconsin): Is Sonny Gray a legit fantasy ace for the next 5 seasons?

J.P. Breen: Gray obviously has the tools, but I can't help but see a Tim Lincecum path for him. Lincecum has shown how a starter's workload can wear on a shorter and slighter pitcher. If Gray throws 200 innings over the next couple years, I'm worried his stuff will begin to decline 3-5 years down the road. Certainly, it's nothing but projection, but when was the last time a hard-throwing starter who was under 6-feet threw 200+ for years on end? Tim Lincecum did, but he's a shell of himself at this point and only 30.

MN Transplant (D.C.): Breaking news: the Twins called up Jorge Polanco. Hot take?

J.P. Breen: I like Jorge Polanco quite a bit. I think he hits .275 with a few homers this year, and I think he can play shortstop for at least a couple years -- even if he eventually moves to second base. Polanco is one of those players who doesn't receive a lot of hype because he doesn't do anything *really* well, but he's solid across the board with a real feel for hitting. Thumbs up from me.

RatedRookie (Atlanta): Are there plans to roll out more BP regional sections?

J.P. Breen: I'm not the bossman for BP, but I know Baseball Prospectus and Jim Walsh are committed to the BP local sector of the site and will be looking at expanding its reach in the future. When that happens and how it looks are questions that are far beyond my pay grade. I do know, though, that BP Milwaukee is gonna be a treat for y'all.

Steve (Milwaukee): After Taylor Jungmann's debut performance, is his floor a #2 with ace potential?

J.P. Breen: I mean, at least, right?

Jason (Texas): Is Jonathan Singleton going to be an all star first baseman? Is there any other elite 1B options coming up through the minors? Singleton or Hosmer for the next 5 years on an OBP league?

J.P. Breen: I don't think he'll be a perennial All-Star, but I could see him getting hot in April and May for a year and getting a ton of votes. Power attracts All-Star votes, after all. The 1B position is a little thin in the minors, unless you believe Dan Vogelbach can actually play adequate defense at the position. His bat is tremendous, and perhaps still underrated.

Kyle (Atlanta): Is Stephen Vogt a top 5 catcher in 2016?

J.P. Breen: No, I don't think so. Posey, Lucroy, Gomes, Mesoraco (potentially), Martin, and Grandal are still preferable options for me. Maybe even Matt Wieters, if he proves healthy. Vogt can hit, though, that's for sure. If it's an OBP league, I do think Vogt could be considered top five.

RatedRookie (Atlanta): What role is Kevin Gausman most likely to have when he returns from the DL? Anyone at BP have eyes on his most recent rehab outing?

J.P. Breen: Flip a coin and take a guess, my friend. No one knows what Baltimore is doing with Gausman. I don't know if anyone from our Prospect Team saw his last rehab outing. Gausman is an exciting prospect in a frustrating organization. I suspect many fantasy owners would like to see Gausman traded prior to the 2016, to be honest.

Steve (Milwaukee): At what round in the draft do the selections just become random names that mean nothing to you?

J.P. Breen: Round five -- but I'm not going to pretend that I've seen more than a dozen of them. I just read up on a it a lot because I'm a gigantic nerd.

Matt (Wis.): In middle of dynasty prospect draft. coming up on my 2nd pick in 1st rd. in middle of rebuild, maybe another year or so away. can you rank or tier these guys for me? Snell, Marcos Molina, Sierra, Jorge mateo, gleyber, daniel robertson, fedde, kopech, honeywell, daz, carson fulmer, or any other player just drafted with the exception of the top 4.

J.P. Breen: That's quite the position. I'd say: Snell, Molina, Robertson, Mateo, Gleyber Torres, Honeywell, Fedde, Fulmer, etc.

James (LA): The Dodgers took two guys who should be ready within 2 years with their two first round picks. They also have a bunch of high talent guys who are nearly ready now: Seager, Urias, De Leon, Lee (sorta). Make sense to time it so that they all arrive together?

J.P. Breen: I'd caution two things: (1) Don't assume that Buehler or Funkhouser will be ready within two years. Adjustment to professional baseball is not uniform. People also expected Taylor Jungmann to be up in the bigs for a year. (2) Don't assume the Dodgers will keep all of those players in the organization. They're primed to make a splash in the trade market, if they want. Moreover, you don't want to rely on a bunch of young players at once, especially for a team that has World Series aspirations for years to come. It's likely best to stagger the developmental pains.

NorDub (Seattle): In a dynasty league, how would you rank Wilmer Difo, Brett Phillips, Gleyber Torres and Derek Fisher for offensive production?

J.P. Breen: Proximity to the majors also matters. I'd say Phillips, Difo, Fisher, Torres.

Lou (Missouri): I like Alex Reyes a lot. How much excitement is realslistic for a guy who struggles with control? Top 25 Dynasty spec?

J.P. Breen: You can be excited about a prospect without necessarily expecting him to reach his ceiling. That's the one thing of which fantasy owners have to be careful. Do not invest in prospects *expecting* them to reach their ceiling. That rarely happens. With that said, Reyes is in one of the best organizations in baseball. I still think he's around 375-425 overall for dynasty leagues.

Nick Rizzo (Brooklyn, NY): Any idea what might be up with Jason Heyward? This year is his age 25 season and his worst. Seasons by OPS, highest first: 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2011, 2015.

J.P. Breen: Absolutely. You can't hit for power if you can't get the baseball off the ground. His 56.7 percent ground-ball rate is the highest of his career, and he's coupling it with a 13.5 percent infield-fly rate. That's a whole lotta weak contact and very few opportunities to hit for power.

Jered (Oklahoma): What is your opinion of Jon Harris?

J.P. Breen: I really like Harris's body of work, has a chance for three or four legit pitches. Huge, huge value for the Blue Jays at #29. Considering their dearth of pitching in the majors, they have to be tickled that they got someone like him at the back-end of the first round. He shouldn't have been there.

Will (Chicago): So if I send you my resume you could look into something for me? Just looking for a summer gig

J.P. Breen: Is it required that you're paid for this "summer gig"? I imagine that I can find a lot of success finding you a job if you're willing to not be paid.

Alex (NYC): Any big themes to keep in mind in a H2H dynasty league vs roto? (Aside from stockpile SPs?)

J.P. Breen: In head-to-head leagues, it's important to be cognizant of your category spread. By that, I mean be aware if you're punting a category without meaning to. If you find yourself without many stolen bases in round 10, it's probably not wise to invest heavily in that category. The guys who will carry that category are already gone. It's best to focus your energy elsewhere and try to build up your speed in the minors and off the waiver wire. Unlike roto, it doesn't pay to be mediocre in a category and lose most weeks. That's wasted production that could be useful elsewhere. No partial points, after all.

Grizz (Chi): Any thoughts on Miguel Sano's progress this year? Do we see him by September or would it be best for him to get a full year in AA/AAA and then take it easy once the season's over?

J.P. Breen: Plouffe has been solid at third base for the Twins. He may get a September call-up for some bench power if the Twins are in the thick of a postseason race, but it wouldn't be for significant playing time. His swing-and-miss potential will likely be exploited at the major-league level. Thus, it's probably best to remain in the minors for the year and be ready to push for a big-league promotion next spring.

JP (TX): Thanks JP your name is pretty nice too. what are your thoughts on the Rangers draft? lots of big D1 arms with a little bit of health and signability risk?

J.P. Breen: The Rangers are doing what they always do: stockpile premium athletes with carrying tools and knowing that some of them will pan out. I'm not sure how they sign everyone this year, but they have an impressive haul.

Silverback38 (VA): Are you of the camp that Taijuan Walker still has his elite stuff or that the Mariners have tainted him by messing with his mechanics?

J.P. Breen: I'm not sure it has to be either. Walker's stuff is good, but his command isn't great. He also slows his arm speed on his breaking ball, which hurts its deception. Guys at the big-league level can hit 95+ when it's not located well. Guys can also hit the mid-70s change-of-pace when they see its coming. Walker has to learn what many young starters have to learn: not all strikes are created equally. If you miss in the zone, you're going to be crushed. There's still hope for Walker, but it's more looking like a potential #3 or #4 starter, rather than a borderline ace.

Manny (Cabo): Are you read in on the 2016 draft players? Excited about any big time bats?

J.P. Breen: I'm not familiar with the 2016 draft at this point. I should be, though, considering the Brewers will be drafting near the top. Sadly, that's not a joke.

klwillis45 (Milwaukee): Which SP returning from injury will have the biggest impact this season: Moore, Fernandez or Arroyo?

J.P. Breen: Fernandez will be #1. I'll go out on a limb and say Martin Perez will have a bigger impact than Matt Moore. Bronson Arroyo will have the biggest positive impact on opposing hitters' slugging percentages. #dingers

tntzombie (Cleveland): Is Preston Tucker worth hanging onto in a 14 team mixed dynasty league?

J.P. Breen: Oh, absolutely. You can't throw away someone who's hitting fourth in a major-league lineup. He's a solid fourth or fifth fantasy OF.

Nathaniel (WI): I have this theory that Lucroy, Segura, Braun, and Gomez aren't going to be moved/aggressively shopped 'til offseason,so that the new GM can decide how to build the team. (and that Melvin gets promoted to Pres. Baseball Op...or whatever.) What think?

J.P. Breen: If the Brewers are going to replace Melvin, I'd think that Ray Montgomery is the most likely choice. In that way, the Brewers would likely have an internal plan for the transition of power -- which would involve Montgomery in long-term decisions. The organization won't wait to make moves if they're going to sell big. I just don't think they engage in a firesale at all. Of the names you mention, I see only Gomez being moved prior to Opening Day 2016.

J.P. Breen: I see you feel strongly about this question. My answer remains the same, Nathaniel. I hope it was sufficient.

Will (Chicago): Possibly unpaid, what you got? Chance I could get a stipend from my university

J.P. Breen: I suggest that you get the stipend from your university and not work. That sounds like the best scenario.

David W (Atlanta): Getting greedy here, Mr. Breen. How about a post-hype blossom in Cameron Maybin? He's been fairly stellar since getting regular time at the beginning of May - SSS caveats aside, is this a former top prospect finally shining or a pile of pyrite?

J.P. Breen: It's probably somewhere between the two. I wrote about him today, actually: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=26612

MN Transplant (D.C.): Following up on the "at what round do they become random names to you" question: Do you have a sense of whether, at a certain point in the draft, teams are going for guys that they and they alone have had their eye on? Or is there something like a consensus top 600 among the amateur scouting departments?

J.P. Breen: It's an interesting question. It becomes a bit more complicated because teams have to worry about their bonus pools and drafting low-bonus seniors in rounds 6-10. Many organizations have guys they particularly love or that one of their scouts strongly believes in. Those guys are usually taken between 6-10 and after round 20. Obviously, those are general guidelines, but I think they're roughly adequate.

Greg (NYC): Gavin Cecchinni the long term answer for the Mets at short? What's his OFP?

J.P. Breen: I don't think so. I think he could be a second-division starter for a couple years, but he's more of a utility guy for me long-term.

Nathaniel (WI): Bigger regret:Lo Cain or Michael Brantley?

J.P. Breen: I don't think the Brewers regret moving either player, as they have Carlos Gomez and two postseason appearances in return for trading them. Still, Michael Brantley hurt the most at the time. He's such a quality hitter.

Jessie (Little Rock): Who has the bigger achievable upside, McCullers or Walker?

J.P. Breen: I assume this is in reference to Tai Walker and not, like, Walker Texas Ranger. I can't bet against McCullers after this start. His stuff has been tremendous. It's all about the command holding up.

Pete (Newcastle ): I'm looking to get Altuve for Springer, Rodon and Olivera. Dynasty league, Obp and slugging. Thanks!

J.P. Breen: I'd comfortably take the Springer/Rodon side of the deal in a dynasty.

SpectiveWax (Chicago): Hey JP the Brewers just drafted Hooper and India. What's up with that? Is this just a big gamble, or do they know something no one else does?

J.P. Breen: I don't think either of them sign. Plenty unsignable guys with big talent are taken after the 10th round. It's ultimately about building a relationship with these players for the future and/or hoping that they somehow want to sign this summer. I don't think the Brewers expect them to sign, though.

Shawn (Cubicle): Worried about Edwin Encarnacion's shoulder? Is this the kind of thing that could linger all year. He's already been called questionable for tomorrow's (Friday) game.

J.P. Breen: I'm not too worried about Encarnacion. He launched a two-run homer yesterday. It can't be bothering him too much.

Kodi M. (Timbertown): I'm healthy, I'm starting, I just turned 19, and I've got an FIP in the 2's in the Midwest League. To this point, I'm a spectacular success, and to argue that I'm already a "whiff" is by definition denying reality.

J.P. Breen: Hey Kodi. As mentioned earlier, Crawford's "whiff" comment has nothing to do with performance this year. Low-A hitters were always going to be overwhelmed by you.

The Dude (Office): Please rank: Italian Sausage, Chorizo, Bratwurst, Kielbasa, Breakfast Sausage

J.P. Breen: Bratwurst, Chorizo, Italian Sausage, Kielbasa, [huge gap] Breakfast Sausage

Ron (Texarkana): What information about Brady Aiken's arm is known? I can't seem to find much of anything.

J.P. Breen: The medicals for Aiken were only released to front offices that asked for the medicals. It's been held extremely closely. No one knows much of anything.

Basil (Mid-Tex): What is going on with Teheran this year? He has not performed up to his usual self at all.

J.P. Breen: It's been an issue of command. His walk rate and home-run rate are up this year, significantly. His velocity and peripherals are close to their career norms. Guys can go through tough stretches throughout their careers. For example, Greinke followed up his 2.16 ERA with the Royals in '09 with a 4.17 ERA in '10. Young pitchers need to establish consistency. Sometimes it takes a while and results fluctuate.

Shawn (Cubicle): It seems that when big-stuff, poor command SP prospects initially come up there's a period of time where they are succesful before the league figures them out. I'm thinking like Tony Cingrani from 2 years ago and Lance McCullers Jr. this year. Can you think of a reason why these guys seem to have initial success that isn't really predicted for them? Maybe I take the scouting report too literal, but I often ignore these guys in my leagues when they come up, but it seems like there's an opportunity to grab these guys right away and ride them for a few starts before the league catches up to them.

J.P. Breen: I don't think Cingrani and McCullers are too comparable. Everyone knew Cingrani was a one-trick pony who would struggle against righties. McCullers has better stuff and has even begun using a third pitch more frequently. If the command continues to develop, there's no comparison between the two whatsoever.

Jimmy (Houston): Wouldn't you consider the Texas Rangers park a detriment and downgrade Ortiz a bit ?

J.P. Breen: I don't think so, no. Plus, there's no guarantee whatsoever that Luis Ortiz is in the Rangers' organization a year from now -- or even a month from now. When ranking minor leaguers, it's important to rank the talent/stuff and worry about big-league fit once they get closer to The Show.

Steven (Long Island): If you're the Mets, how much would you give up for a guy like Frazier? Matz and Conforto sound fair or would it have to be more?

J.P. Breen: I don't think I'd trade for a guy like Frazier, to be honest. They'd be better off trading smaller pieces for a one-year fix like Aramis Ramirez. Matz should only be moved for a premium piece, not a 29-year-old third baseman with a year remaining on his contract. I'd think differently if I had any confidence whatsoever that the Mets org had money for an extension.

Joe (The Keys): Are you a believer of Danny Salazar's stuff or just riding the roller coaster like the rest of us?

J.P. Breen: I am a believer in Salazar. In fact, he's one of the top-10 pitchers according to cFIP. He'll benefit from the defensive improvement at third base (Urshela) and will ultimately benefit once Francisco Lindor gets the call later this summer. I'm on board w/ Salazar.

Mark (Vermont): Any chance we see Conforto in the majors this year?

J.P. Breen: I don't think so. I'm also not convinced Conforto is an impact piece at the major-league level.

Shawn (Cubicle): Who are your favorite buy/sell targets right now? Maybe 1 hitter and 1 pitcher to each buy/sell on?

J.P. Breen: Ian Desmond is my favorite "buy" target for hitters. Carlos Carrasco for pitchers. In terms of selling, I'd be cashing out on someone like Dustin Pedroia and Ubaldo Jimenez. I'd also sell hard on Nick Martinez, but I'm not sure you'll get much value for him.

Silverback38 (VA): In dynasty leagues, would you grab a guy like Jon Harris or take a risk on injured players like Matuella and Aiken?

J.P. Breen: It depends on your timeline. If you need help at the majors, Harris is a much better bet. If you're willing to wait a few years, Matuella would be the guy I'd want.

ssauve25 (SF): RE: Sano. Are you saying his swing and miss will be exploited as a September call up or are you concerned about his long term success? He's always been in the teens for BB rate and his K rate isn't ungodly given his profile. He's been a sub .300 babip guy so it's not like he's being propped up by that either.

J.P. Breen: I think his contact issues will be exploited early on. I think he'll adjust eventually, as do many sluggers. The contact problems will be an issue throughout his career, to an extent, but they'll be more apparent when he first dips his toes into the majors.

J.P. Breen: Thanks for the chat, everyone. I appreciate it. Let's do it again sometime, yeah?