Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Bret Sayre

Chat: Bret Sayre

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Thursday February 26, 2015 8:00 PM ET chat session with Bret Sayre.

Bret wrote the Fantasy 101 list published at BP this week. Ask him about your dynasty and keeper leagues or anything else prospect, fantasy or baseball related.

Bret Sayre: Good evening, everyone. Apologies for my lateness - we'll go late to make up for it. Who's got a plate of something for me?

Tom (Saratoga): Yoan Moncada or Corey Seager? Who are you taking for the next 15 years?

Bret Sayre: I'm taking Seager here. Less ceiling (albeit not by that much), but a bit safer. And for those counting at home (or playing the drinking game), that's one question on Moncada.

Michael (Pennsylvania ): I've got the second pick in our rookie draft this year It's a head to head poit's league and I'd like to think I have a good chance at going for it this year. So, who do I pick - Tomas, Castillo, Mancado, Rodon? Mind ranking these guys?

Bret Sayre: I'd go Moncada first, and Rodon second in a points league. And that's TWO.

jwfass21 (Honolulu): Bret, love your work. If Alex Guerrero was eligible this year would he have made the top 100 dynasty prospects?

Bret Sayre: Thanks! He's 28, so would look awfully out of place on a prospect list. But in terms of value, he'd likely sneak in at the very, very end.

paulallen (Chicago): Let's talk Alen Hanson. 270/15 HR/30 SB possible at his peak? Put up a really solid season in AA at a young age, but people just seem bored with him.

Bret Sayre: People are bored with him, but that's a little optimistic on the speed. He can go 270/15/15 though, if things break right for him.

Jake (GA): Can Danny Santana be a poor mans Jose Reyes? Very similar skill sets.

Bret Sayre: Umm..no. Santana doesn't have a single skill that matches Reyes' either offensively or defensively.

TINO (The Moon): Hey dad! Are you gonna let me use the car in Arizona or nah?

Bret Sayre: Please.

Clint Frazier (Cleveland): Bret, will I be a top 15 prospect by season's end?

Bret Sayre: You know I think he will. I'm still very bullish on him.

G Money (Orlando): Jake Arrieta and Carlos Carrasco were fantastic down the stretch. Do you think those two can finish what they started, what I mean is do you think one or both could be this year's Kluber?

Bret Sayre: I think we're overstating how rarely a Kluber happens. Arrieta is much more likely to continue the success and stay healthy in 2015, but expecting a Cy Young out of either of them is a bit much.

Ben (New York): Where do you see Yelich's power numbers in three years? In 2015?

Bret Sayre: I think Yelich could eventually hit 20-25 homers if he wanted to. The question is whether his approach will allow him to do so (though even if that is the case, he'll be hitting for a high enough average that you shouldn't mind).

Daniel (Texas): Will Billy Burns ever be an useful fantasy OF thanks to the steals? Maybe a OF4 with impact steals... Is Jarrod Dyson his floor or ceiling, and can he steal 50+ bases? Thank you!!

Bret Sayre: The problem is that Burns can't hit. He's more Tony Campana than Jarrod Dyson.

Bobbo (Kansas): Which side do you prefer? Keep forever. Steven Souza & Moncada for Jorge Soler

Bret Sayre: I'd take the Moncada/Souza side. And that's THREE.

FW (TP): Any hope left for Profar?

Bret Sayre: Of course. I mean, the injury really blows, but at least he's getting it surgically repaired now. He'll be 23 next year so he's far from a lost cause. Be patient and don't do anything you'll regret.

Jason28 (Denver): Where does Ryan McMahon rank for you among offensive 3B prospects?

Bret Sayre: He checks in at #6 for me, behind Bryant, Sano, Gallo, Franco and Peterson.

Juan (DC): Has anyone ever told you that your glorious voice sounds like Adam Scott's voice?

Bret Sayre: Has anyone ever told you that you have wonderful opinions, Juan?

Shane (Queens, NY): Provided he continues to show what he did in the 2h last year, does Greg Bird have a chance to break onto this list by mid-season?

Bret Sayre: Sure, he was a late cut from the 101 this year, so he could easily make the list next year.

Walker (Houston): Who do you like to have the better year, Paxton or Pineda? Both seem to be injury prone, but a if both could get to 185 + innings, could they get into top 25 for starting pitchers?

Bret Sayre: And if a frog had wings, he wouldn't bump his ass when he hopped. Give me Paxton for 2015, but I'd be pretty surprised if either of them approached 185 innings.

Silverback38 (Virginia): What are your thoughts on the upside of Mateo versus Rosario? Who would you rather have in dynasty league?

Bret Sayre: I'd lean (Amed) Rosario since he's safer, but (Jorge) Mateo surely beats him in upside.

Brent (Chicago): Rafael Devers fantasy upside, as good as anyone in the minors right now, not named Bryant?

Bret Sayre: Nope. I don't think I'd even have him in the top-10 in pure upside. Still super exciting though.

tphillytho (Pittsburgh): 14 team dynasty 30 man keeper league, I have a congestion at catcher. Jarred Saltalamacchia, Navarro, and Pinto. What would be your strategy? Team needs are SS/RP mainly. Trade value?

Bret Sayre: Let it play out in the first half and trade the guy who gets off to the best start.

Mark (NJ): Does Freddie Freeman ever hit 30 HR's in a season? Does he even have 30 HR upside?

Bret Sayre: No and no. Very good hitter though.

Jeremy Hellickson (A Sad Place): Have the 4th pick in a starter dynasty draft. Would you hesitate to pick Bryce Harper there? Also, should I draft myself?

Bret Sayre: I wouldn't hesitate if you want him, but I have him ranked fifth. And absolutely not.

Basil (Houston): Better option: Descalfani or Tropeano? I know, not great options.

Bret Sayre: I'd rather roll the dice on Desclafani, since he's got the inside track to a rotation spot.

CyMature (Cooperstown Retirement Home): ChiChi Gonzalez: slider, fastball, movement, control, cool retro nickname. He's got everything but an ETA. What do you say?

Bret Sayre: Second half of 2015 seems pretty good to me, no?

Dan (MPLS): When you do an auction, what percentage of your budget do you personally spend on the hitters and on the pitchers?

Bret Sayre: Generally, I'm around 190 for hitting and 70 for pitching, but I'm aware that I skew towards the bats.

Bennybizness (Pittsburgh): Is Austin Meadows' ceiling higher than any of the current current guys in the Pirates' OF?

Bret Sayre: Nope. Lower than all of them.

Sumner (Atlanta): It seem to me that Danny Salazar was a bit unlucky and turned around his season when he got back after a stint in the minors. Can he be this year, what we all thought he was going to be last year?

Bret Sayre: I doubt he ever lives up to his 2014 pre-season hype, but he certainly looks to be more appropriately valued this year.

Wesley (Albany): Deep league: Drew Ward or J.D. Davis?

Bret Sayre: I like Davis as a very deep sleeper.

DDub (Milwaukee): 5x5 roto, I can keep two of Hahn, Stroman or Salazar. Who do you like?

Bret Sayre: Stroman is a no brainer, and I'd tab Salazar for the second, but it's pretty close.

Baylor (Dallas): Who has the better year, Soler or Pederson?

Bret Sayre: Soler. Think Pederson is solid, but that he has an adjustment period as he gets used to major league pitching.

Scott (Lincolnshire): What's the next big name out of Cuba now that (take a shot) signed with the Red Sox? Seems like there's always another wave of super-studs from Cuba.

Bret Sayre: That next big name is Yadier Alvarez (or Alvares, if you're fancy). He's got a nasty fastball/slider combo and is still a teenager. Will cost big bucks post July 2.

Karl (San Angelo): What pitching prospects ranked 20 and lower will make their big league clubs in 2015? Chi Chi Gonzalez, Jake Thompson, Steven Matz, Aaron Blair, others?

Bret Sayre: Those first three are good names. Blair has an outside shot. I'd throw Norris, Wisler, and Appel on there as well.

RTrydel (Baltimore): Better offensive upside, Willy Adames or Amed Rosario?

Bret Sayre: Adames, but both have less offensive potential than conventional wisdom suggest.

TINO Listnener (US): Convince me that Salazar isn't 2025 Carassco? In terms of hype and possible reward.

Bret Sayre: I'm pretty sure 2025 Carrasco is a cyborg.

OBPplusSLG (Sandwichland): Re: the Gerrit Cole discussion on TINO. When respected voices like Ben and Craig disagree with you on a player, do you rethink your position?

Bret Sayre: Of course. Ben and Craig are awfully good at what they do and are very strong player evaluators. In fact, when I put out lists, they are almost always after I've already solicited advice from them and made changes based on their recommendations.

kylanje (Florida): Care to name a few minor league players not yet on anyone's radar the will be a year from now?

Bret Sayre: How about Derek Fisher and Leonardo Molina?

Steve (Long Beach): Does Alex Jackson crack the top 20 next year?

Bret Sayre: It's certainly possible, but I'd bet on no at this point. He's a very gifted hitter, but it may not show up right away, especially if they challenge him with a full-season assignment.

Taylor (Mississippi): Hi, in the top-prospect lists, you call guys 5's, 6's, etc. Does that line up with Kiley McDaniels' FV values on his lists of 45, 60, etc.?

Bret Sayre: Yep, it's the standard scouting scale--some people just use 2's and 8's, while some use 20's and 80's. All the same concept though.

Smalls (Sandlot): Would you move Cueto for G. Cole and Clint Frazier in a standard 5x5 H2H dynasty or need more to get Cueto?

Bret Sayre: No, I'd do that.

Chris (NY): Does Aaron Judge make it to the MLB this year? Do you think he will be exposed in AA? How good can he be? Give me the full rundown on Judge.

Bret Sayre: He could be a 30-plus homer outfielder, who will most definitely not be in the majors this year. He's a big guy, but has less swing-and-miss than you'd think a guy his size would have. So we're not talking about a .230 hitter here, maybe more in the .250 to .260 range.

Victor (Maryland): Share some good thoughts and insight on Raisel Iglesias if you would be so kind.

Bret Sayre: Strong mid-90's fastball with the potential for a bat-missing slider and another potential average pitch in his change. Likely a reliever given his arsenal, but will likely be given at least one chance to start (though it could be like the change they gave Chapman).

Jake (NC): Why hasn't Josh Bell's power shown in games yet? With the move to 1B, he's gotta hit for power or he'll be James Loney 2.0. Do we see it this year? Does he have 30 HR potential?

Bret Sayre: He's still developing, is the easy answer. He doesn't have 30 homer power, but I believe he'll at least get to 20, which should diminish your worry of him turning into Loney.

Ryan Brown (Pgh, PA ): Deep NL Only dynasty: Christian Arroyo, Trevor Story, neither?

Bret Sayre: Story if you have to. No one should have to own Christian Arroyo.

Comment (BP): Convince me Kris Bryant isn't Chris Davis 2.0....I mean obviously Davis can be amazing, but can Bryant struggle due to his contact problems for a while before flashing his elite talent at 1B or in the OF

Bret Sayre: Which Chris Davis? Of course Bryant could struggle, and the strikeouts is likely where it would happen, but you can't teach that kind of power.

Cody (Cincinnati ): Where Thor is ranked higher than Giolito, is it due solely to eta, or do pitching at upper minors and, therefore, a potential higher floor factor in?

Bret Sayre: If they both had the same ETA, Giolito would be higher, but don't undersell Syndergaard's fantasy ceiling. He could be an SP1, and soon.

David (Cleveland): Clint Frazier is getting some discussion in the chat this evening, so I hate to add on to it, but in my dynasty league due to a technicality Frazier is available in the draft. Do you take him over Moncada? If not does he go number to over Rodon/Tomas/Castillo? I really appreciate it!!!

Bret Sayre: No, I'd take Frazier behind all four of those guys.

Comment (Canada): Je aime il ne est pas hors saison

Bret Sayre: Merci

Angry Prospect Fan (New England): I bought tickets months in advanced to see Buxton,Sano,Swihart, and Owens in Portland. The first two got injured, and I saw a rehabing Doubront instead. I sat is scout seats too. Now the Twins moved their AA to the south. I will never see the Twins prospects and am upset. Feel the pain

Bret Sayre: You'll get to see Dahl and Tapia in pretty short order. Life could be MUCH worse.

paulallen (Shelbyville): In a deep dynasty league, is it even worth taking a flyer on any of these injuries waiting to happen - Hudson, Luebke, Josh Johnson?

Bret Sayre: Depends how deep. If 500 or more players are owned, I'd take a shot on Johnson until he inevitably gets shut down for the season.

Bennybizness (Pittsburgh): How much of a drop in ranking would guys like Dahl or Tapia see if they weren't in Colorado's system?

Bret Sayre: It would likely be about 10-15 spots or so. They're still very exciting prospects.

Rick (Evanston): Any spoilers you can dish about who might be no. 1 on your list of the top 40 prospects outside of the minors from the futures guide? When can we expect that?

Bret Sayre: I can tell you that Moncada was #1 on the list. Other than that, just know that I heart Brendan Rodgers.

Larry (Miami): Dynasty trade. Baez, Polanco, Bauer, and 2016 1st round pick in rookie draft for Harper and 2015 1st round pick in rookie draft. Which side wins?

Bret Sayre: Yea, I'd do that for Harper--but it's reasonable on both sides.

Steve (Long Beach): Assuming Rusney Castillo and Yasmany Tomas were included in your dynasty top 101, where would they fill in? Is there any growth left for these guys?

Bret Sayre: They'd both be towards the back of the top-20 in value alone. But Castillo is a finished product. Tomas at least still has some growth opportunity--and a nice park in which to flash that power.

tno1986 (nyc): AL only league 10 teams, we get two minor leaguers to stash till the come up. worth holding on to kohl stewart and clint frazier this year?

Bret Sayre: I like both guys, but I would think there's a better option than Stewart to hold in a league with just 20 AL prospects.

Danny (Cal.): I was offered Kingham, Lamb, and fourth round pick in rk. draft (4 rounds, 12 teams) for DJ Peterson. I already said no but how much would the other side need to add to make that a reasonable trade for me?

Bret Sayre: An actual centerpiece? Don't trade off Peterson for depth (and yes Kingham is depth is a 12-team league).

El Gallo (St. Louis ): Given his velo, movement and, thus far, platoon splits, it seems Carlos Martinez either figures things out in a big way and is a future Top 30 SP, or fails at starting and becomes a RP, but won't be a 4th starter. Do you agree?

Bret Sayre: I think that's fair. It's very unlikely he languishes as a back-end starter because he could be quite excellent in the bullpen.

Fun Question (Ten Years): Over the next ten years: Would you rather have Profar or Moncada?

Bret Sayre: Moncada. Love Profar, but too risky at this point. And that's SIX.

Matt (Penn): Speaking of Frazier, would you trade your second round and fourth round picks in a 12-team rookie draft for him?

Bret Sayre: In a heartbeat.

Matthew (San Diego): Hey Bret, so I inherited a dynasty league team, which is solid but has little chance at catching up to the number one team (which has won the past 4 years). My team is solid enough that it would be silly to do a full rebuild, but how do I build my team up to catch up to this dominant team without overhauling my roster and waiting for years? My farm system is okay, nothing special with barely any high end prospects (my best are Barreto, Wisler, DJ Peterson, and E-Rod). Thank you so much!

Bret Sayre: Churn and burn, my friend. Trade everyone you've got on the farm and then grab high-upside guys and trade them again. It will save you the time of a full rebuild--just get your timing right.

Daniel Beach (Jupiter): Carlos Rodon or Archie Bradley for 2016 and beyond or are the pretty similar?

Bret Sayre: They're pretty similar, but I still prefer Bradley by a nudge. Giving him a bit of a mulligan for his 2014 season.

Allan (College Park): Hey Brett, I have a slow dynasty rookie draft (players left on waivers at end of the year, '14 draftees, international signees) coming up on March 6th. I've never done one of these before and inherited the team. Will you have a rookie draft rankings/article coming out by then? Love your work, thank you!

Bret Sayre: It actually came out in January. Here's the link: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25292

DanDaMan (Work): Hey Bret, enjoyed today's prospects piece. In later rounds I always like to draft a prospect of 2 to stash until they get called up. Without getting into too much detail my keeper league is such that someone like Byron Buxton is no use to me (due to MLB ETA), but Syndergaard might be. With that in mind, who would your top 3 guys to stash be based on value you think they'll provide this year? Thanks

Bret Sayre: Bryant (cop out), Syndergaard and Pederson. Rodon could be pretty helpful too.

Dan Szymborski (Basement Lair): Who would win in a fight? Carl Everett or David Eckstein dressed as a dinosaur?

Bret Sayre: Are you kidding? Everett would run in the other direction faster than Billy Hamilton.

Cal Guy (Cal): Bret, Tanaka is only costing me $8 to keep in 2015, but if his elbow goes pop, he costs me $12 in his comeback year and may be back to pre-surgery level in 2017 at a cost of $16. Should I take the risk and keep him this year?

Bret Sayre: At that price, yea.

Cal Guy (Cal): Hi Bret, How does Giolito rank compared to the other top ranked pitching prospects of the past decade?

Bret Sayre: Not favorably at this point for fantasy. Let's wait until next off-season when he's possibly had a taste of Double-A.

Lewin Diaz (GCL): How do you grade my raw power? Do you think there is a chance that I am a top 100 fantasy baseball prospect next year?

Bret Sayre: I'd give your raw a 70, and yes there's an outside chance. Not a strong one though, given how far away he is.

Cal Guy (Cal): Bret, Gausman will have his break out season in 2015/2016/other/never and will be a top 15/30/45/60/other pitcher in MLB.

Bret Sayre: I'll take 2016 and 30.

Chopper (Indy): In a points system that rewards only for Hits, Runs, RBI and Stolen Bases, would you rather Franco or Peraza (dynasty league)? Thanks!

Bret Sayre: With no homers, I'd go with Peraza.

DanDaMan (Sea Cliff): Hey Bret, love these chats! I don't draft for another month so I don't quite have my questions ready. One question I have though is are there any more chats coming from the fantasy staff in the next few weeks? Don't see any scheduled. Thanks

Bret Sayre: We will have more scheduled, I promise.

Jared (Subway: Eat Fresh): Is CJ Cron the biggest beneficiary in the potential Hamilton suspension? Are my sandwiches any good?

Bret Sayre: First question, of course. Second question, oh lord no.

JT Smooth (Other side of the pillow): What's Oswaldo Arcia's dynasty value? Is his floor a premium platoon piece?

Bret Sayre: It won't be unless he cuts down on the strikeouts. His floor is essentially Matt Joyce.

Harold (Earth): When will Tim Anderson make it to the MLB? And at what position will that be at?

Bret Sayre: August of 2016 and he'll make his MLB debut at 2B.

paulallen (Chicago): 18 team dynasty - Devers, Betts, Semien, Bruce for Polanco, Matt Davidson, Jacob Turner, late round pick - which side do you prefer?

Bret Sayre: I know this trade. It's the Betts/Bruce side, without question.

RussHaigis (San Diego): Bret, the BP crew is a pretty funny group of guys. If the baseball writing gigs fall through, do you all have a contingency plan centered around a world comedy tour?

Bret Sayre: We're going to do the world tour anyway. It's not a contingency plan.

henry (philadelphia): my dynasty league allows all international, college, and HS players to be picked up immediately w/o an entry draft. how should i be valuing amateurs from the 2015 draft—especially possible top 10 draft guys? they all seem like future top 100 (if not 50) types.

Bret Sayre: You should value them as great trade chips around draft time. There are some guys who will be top-50 prospects at this time next year, though it's tough to figure out who they are at this point. Except for Brendan Rodgers.

Dave (Florida ): How worried should Yu Darvish owners be this year? Would you try to trade him for another top ten overall pitcher or hold?

Bret Sayre: I'd hold. Reports sound pretty positive at this point, and a healthy Darvish is an easy top-five pitcher.

Hunter (Altoona): Better gamble- Touki or Kolek (Mia)? For low level players, should we look less at MLB roadblocks or park factors?

Bret Sayre: Kolek for the first answer. And absolutely for the second. Contextual factors should only be taken into real account as players are on the cusp of the majors, with a few choice exceptions.

Silverback38 (VA): If Tomas continues bobbling balls at 3B, who would fill the hot corner, Lamb…Drury…or ???? Who is the better 3B option, Lamb or Drury?

Bret Sayre: Tomas at 3B is a pipe dream. Remember when Trumbo was gonna play 3B? Or Carlos Santana? It's not easy to just turn into a third baseman. Lamb is the guy in the short term, but Drury is the more exciting name.

kylanje (Jacksonville): Yoan Moncada. That is all.

Bret Sayre: Correct. And that's SEVEN.

Bret Sayre: Thanks everyone for joining me this evening. It's been a long off-season, but real baseball will be starting in a few weeks! Let's do this again soon.