Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jordan Gorosh

Chat: Jordan Gorosh

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Thursday October 09, 2014 3:00 PM ET chat session with Jordan Gorosh.

Jordan Gorosh hasn't changed since the last time we wrote a bio for him here. Ask him about prospects!

Jordan Gorosh: I'm not your sandwich subject matter expert, but I can give you Bad Opinions. Let's get the ball rolling.

baseballjunkie (SF Bay Area): Hi Jordan, Couple of Prospect Smackdowns for you for a dynasty league: Would you choose the electric arm and clean health history of Glasnow or the overall precision excellence of Giolito? And would you choose the 5 tool yumminess of Buxton or the still tasty but greater position value of Correa?

Jordan Gorosh: I'm going to answer this independent of fantasy, because 1) I'm not a fantasy expert (although I do play) and 2) we have an outstanding fantasy squad that would be happy to take your question via Bat Signal. Trust me, ask a lot of Bat Signal questions. It's a good idea. I recommend it highly. Ask 5 questions a day, they're required to answer you.

Anyway, I think Giolito has the highest upside of any arm currently in the minors. The mechanics are rough, sure. But, I wouldn't pay any attention to a 'step backward' this year, or however people are framing this. Glasnow is nasty, don't get me wrong; I'm just going down with the Gio ship if I have to.

Give me Buxton. I hope people have soured on him, because the ones who stick by will look very, very smart in the end.

Dino Bravo (Quebec): Is all hope lost on Max Fried?

Jordan Gorosh: Absolutely not. He's 21 years old, please be patient. The stuff is very, very good from the left side.

Dave (Des Moines): Michael De Leon got some good pub towards the end of the year. Is he gonna be more than glove than bat in the end?

Jordan Gorosh: He's a hot name because of his age. Not that the prospect profile isn't good, but in most organizations, I don't think he comes stateside until 2015 at the earliest, and probably 2016. Most people are going to see him on a prospect list in 2017 or 2018 and go "wtf, he's been around forever." De Leon is more of a makeup guy than an actual production guy, and Texas is notoriously aggressive with plus makeup players. He's going to be challenged, but I'm not sure he's an impact guy in the end.

nbraun (DC): what should my expectations be next year for rockies SP Jonathan Gray and Eddie Butler?

Jordan Gorosh: Hopefully the Rockies let them go out of the gate. Both pitchers are immensely talented and have impact-type stuff. Gray moreso than Butler, as I think he can be a TOTR guy in fairly short order. Butler's stuff has regressed a bit, but I really like the profile, and assuming they are asked to miss bats, each has the chance to be a rotation stalwart.

Bill (Georgetown): The Yankees hype machine is going again, particularly about their young shortstops. Is Jorge Mateo really the best of the bunch?

Jordan Gorosh: They have a LOT of young talent between 16-18.5 or so. I can't speak to this recent class of J2s because frankly, I just don't have enough good information on them. But, speaking to a few scouts who saw Mateo this year, he's got the chance to be a pretty special up the middle player if it all comes together for him.

Mr. Red (Cincinnati): Are we wrong to be excited about Michael Lorenzen?

Jordan Gorosh: BP ranked him in the midseason top 50, so I would say we're right here with you. I like him, but don't have him quite that high. For one: what's his out pitch? Two: can he flip a lineup over, and make consistent pitches in the 5th, 6th, 7th innings? I'm not going to hold the latter part against him, nor his struggles down the stretch. He had never thrown more than 40 innings in a season prior to this one. But, the questions are there, and until he answers them, I'm going to be skeptical.

Brett (Tampa): Has Kyle Crick finally turned himself into a relief pitcher with his lack of progress on command ?

Jordan Gorosh: I wouldn't say 'finally' I had him as a reliever going into this season. He may be a back end of the bullpen type though, which wouldn't be a total waste of his FB.

Ryan (Colorado): Thoughts on Yoan Moncada? How good is he?

Jordan Gorosh: He's very #chisel. The hype surrounding him is big time, but unfortunately, no one let me into Cuba to watch him. You know what I like about Cuba? Cuban sandwiches.

Ryan (Montreal): Just wanted to say the eyewitness reports are really awesome. Thank you to you and the BP team for doing them.

Jordan Gorosh: Thank you. We strive to provide the best coverage that we can. Sincerely appreciated.

Alex (Anaheim): How high are you on Greg Bird?

Jordan Gorosh: What's the opposite of high?

ACJ (Illinois): Hi Jordan, Any chance a team will try to sign Andrew Miller and convert him back into a starter?

Jordan Gorosh: Odds are very, very slim. He's excelling in his current role.

Ben (New York): Where do you rank Sano in relation to Gallo? Even with TJ, I just can't understand how you could overlook the massive gap in plate discipline and rate Gallo more highly

Jordan Gorosh: I think Gallo is the 'hot new toy' this season, and I would have Sano ranked just above him. So, you're kind of preaching to the choir here.

Dan (Bloomington): Jordan, thanks for doing this chat. You wrote a nice piece on the Baez call up earlier this year. Have your feelings changed about him since he has struggled so mightily in the bigs? Where do you see him next year and long-term?

Jordan Gorosh: Thank you, Dan. I wouldn't say my feelings have changed. Since I live in Chicago, I've had the chance to see him in person 4 or 5 times. He makes ridiculously loud contact, but has virtually no idea of a plan. I expected this. I think it was good to see him struggle in a no-pressure situation, as he can now go back and work on stuff this offseason. He's a player that has never really failed before, and now, he can look at video breakdowns and make some mechanical changes and improve. When you put up pitcher-quality numbers, you're going to be more receptive to change a few things.

cracker73 (Florida): If Tim Anderson has a good showing in the Arizona Fall League, do you think he'll have a chance to be ranked in the top 20 prospects? Also what do you think his eventual position will be?

Jordan Gorosh: I think he's a bit too raw to be ranked in the top 20 prospects. A big time athlete and impact-type skills, but he's outside of that range for me right now. I think he's a CF. The profile is sort of reminiscent of Lorenzo Cain.

Dan (Bloomington): Anybody you think is being particularly overlooked in the world of prospects? Alternatively, anybody that is getting way more love than you think they deserve?

Jordan Gorosh: Yes, I think Craig is very overrated. He writes about prospects and gets way more love than he should. It's extremely frustrating.

MKPJ (Chicago): BA left Jen-Ho Tseng off their top 20 MWL prospects. Where do you stand on Tseng?

Jordan Gorosh: I think he's pretty handily in the top 20 MWL prospects. I like him quite a bit, but understand some of the red flags. I do believe he has a shot to be a #4 starter; the polish is impressive, and I like the stuff.

padremurph (Los Angeles): What does Rene Rivera's emergence behind the plate and at the plate due to Hedges ETA? Are Hedges struggles at the plate more of a concern after a year in AA?

Jordan Gorosh: Hedges is going to supplant Rivera if he improves. I'm not really concerned about his issues at the plate, as catchers take a bit longer to develop than everyone else. He's still really young, and I'm willing to let him work it out. He took some of the hitting issues to the defensive side of the ball this year, as he was only really good instead of other-worldly. I think he takes another step in the right direction next year.

Ronny (Maryland): What did you eat for lunch?

Jordan Gorosh: A salami/turkey sandwich on an egg bagel, and some tortilla soup. 60 grade meal, really enjoy bagel sandwiches.

Cal Guy (Cal): Hi Jordan, Do you see Gausman taking a big step forward in 2015? What can we expect him to be one day, a #1, 2, 3 or a bullpen arm?

Jordan Gorosh: Gausman is a starter through and through to me. The FB is a very good pitch, and his changeup(s) are swing and miss variety. I believe the difference between him being a solid starter and a really damn good one is the advent of the breaking ball. He's got some growth there, absolutely.

Ed (C-Falls): do you see another step forward for Mazara? could he leap into top 50 prospect lists by midseason?

Jordan Gorosh: I think he's in the conversation right now. It's a very nice profile, and while I think the Jason Heyward comps (outside of body ones) are a bit premature, he's got a very nice skillset. I think he's got a solid average major league floor, with the chance to be quite a bit more.

Isaac (last one): If Alex Reyes can become consistent in his mechanics and improve his control, is there a top of the rotation potential with him?

Jordan Gorosh: Yes, but it's a long way off. What's weird is that I don't think Reyes ends up 'in the middle'. I think he's either a TOTR guy or a pen arm. I just have that kind of feeling with him. The mechs improved throughout the year, and the stuff is very, very lively. But, he struggles to hit the glove, and probably needs to lose 15 pounds.

Isaac (Not Isaac ): Who do you see has having the best pure hit tool in the lower minors? I see some love for Tapia in that area, does he make youre top 10ish. Do any of the breakout 2014 draftees make the cut?

Jordan Gorosh: Tapia and Nick Williams are certainly up there. I don't think he's a top 10 prospect just due to proximity and risk profile. I don't believe any '14 draftees are in the running for best hit tool, no.

JP (TX): What do you think about Julius Honka's agressive placement in the AHL this year?

Jordan Gorosh: Are you talking about ice soccer?

oscarbluth (Madison, WI): Of the 2014 draftees, who impressed you the most/who did you hear the best reports on?

Jordan Gorosh: In no particular order: Finnegan, Gordon, Rodon, Schwarber, Nola, Holmes.

Colin (WI): Which of the 2014, either draft or international, are you most excited to see in 2015?

Jordan Gorosh: I'm excited about seeing Honeywell, Flaherty, and Derek Hill next season.

jlarsen (Chicagoland): While it's believed that the Rays farm system is now a Bottom 10 system, due to poor drafting/graduations/trades, it's being given a bit of a bad wrap. The last couple of years have seen the Rays acquire useful Major League players(Escobar, Boxberger, Hanigan, Roberts) for generally unknown prospects and many other prospecting websites have both Rays pitching and positional prospects littered throughout "sleeper" and "breakout" prospect lists. Are the Rays starting to creep up system rankings again? Doesn't hurt to acquire a guy like Willy Adames or sign a guy like Adrian Rondon either.

Jordan Gorosh: The Tigers have acquired useful parts for their prospects, and still have a bottom ten system. Adames is on the fringe of the top 100, and I don't think he makes it. Rondon probably won't debut until 2020.

In fact, the Rays system is probably at its weakest point in this administration. The botching of the 2011 draft has a lot to do with it. They had what, 11 picks in the first 100, and there's a very strong possibility that there isn't an every day regular in the bunch.

Every system has 'breakout candidates' and unknown guys who step up. It's entirely possible they place zero guys in the top 100, although I think O'Connor/Adames are somewhere in the conversation. Where is the impact coming from? I don't know if they have anyone who I'd project as a '6' OFP player, aside from Rondon who can barely drive. So, to answer your question, they're a bottom ten system.

Eddie (Cuyahoga Falls): Sean Manaea, household name next year? #2 starter?

Jordan Gorosh: Hard to be a household name when you struggle to repeat consistently and are getting touched up by inferior hitters. He has that type of ceiling, but everyone is waiting for him to relive that glorious Cape Cod summer season. I don't know if that ever happens, but the stuff is very good, and he's got a chance to be a major league starter.

BillJohnson (New Mexico): He's more or less moved from prospect to player, but I'll still ask: has Oscar Taveras' less-than-stellar rookie season given you any concerns that his ceiling may not be as high as expected?

Jordan Gorosh: I think the defensive profile is a bit worse than I thought, but I still believe he's going to hit for average and power at a very high level. Plenty to like there.

Ken (Cleveland): Are the 2012 David Dahl is the next mike Trout discussions put to rest? He looks like a good player but is there any superstar in him?

Jordan Gorosh: Who on earth thinks Dahl is the next Mike Trout? Mike Trout is his own category.

cracker73 (Florida): Was Clint Frazier overrated going into the 2013 MLB draft? He has certainly underwhelmed for being the 5th overall pick.

Jordan Gorosh: I don't think he's underwhelmed, nor do I think he was that overrated. I liked him quite a bit this season.

Ben (Maryland): Is the chance Sisco hype overblown? Is he near any top 100 prospect lists? Or are we just wishful thinking

Jordan Gorosh: I didn't see that type of player. He's not a top 100 prospect if I were making a list on my own. Of course, I don't do that, and it's our entire prospect team's list.

Chopper (Indy): Do you think any of the following will become first-division or elite MLBers? Javier Baez, Archie Bradley, Oscar Taveras, Manuel Margot, Jose Peraza. Thanks!

Jordan Gorosh: I think all are at least first division. I think Margot is going to be an absolute stud, by the way.

mbovie (Kitchen): What are your thoughts on Reds outfield prospect Aristides Aquino?

Jordan Gorosh: My thoughts are he's a very intriguing prospect who I would like to see in 2015 MWL.

Jim Mora (Crankytown): Shocked by how much the Cards are using Randal Grichuk in the playoffs. Do you peg him as an everyday contributor in the near future? Power upside?

Jordan Gorosh: I'm also relatively surprised. I think he's probably a 45/50 OFP guy. I do believe that he's going to hit for some power, but the approach needs some seasoning, and it's awful hard to give that many PA's to a guy who OBPs in the .300 range.

willrich116 (Chattanooga, TN): What were your thoughts on Jesse Winker's first game back in the AFL since the wrist injury he suffered in July?

Jordan Gorosh: I wasn't in attendance, but I'd consider myself the lowest on Winker on staff at BP. I think he's a solid average contributor, but doesn't have any impact-type tools aside from potentially a plus hit.

Isaac (Akron): Margot > Devers?

Jordan Gorosh: Yes. Just because Margot is likely an up the middle player. I like Devers quite a bit as well. He's going to mash.

John (Chicago): Is Dylan Bundy still a top tier pitching prospect?

Jordan Gorosh: Absolutely. I would not write him off. If he gains a slight uptick in velo, he's still a potential #2. Even if he doesn't, still probably a #3 starter. High floor as well.

Gman (Wisconsin): Could Orlando Arcia creep into the Raul Mondesi type prospect this season?

Jordan Gorosh: I don't think Arcia's tools are quite as loud as Mondesi's. I think he's a tier or two below Adalberto #Adalberto

tbwhite (San Diego): What's the ceiling in Jose Ramirez of the Indians ? .700 OPS in the 2nd half, at age 21 while playing SS. There seems to be a lot to like.

Jordan Gorosh: I think that's about what you're going to get. He's scrappy, but probably a role 45/50 type guy going forward.

Frank (Texas): Will Nick Williams develop enough power to become an All Star someday?

Jordan Gorosh: He has the potential to. I like the swing quite a bit and the contact ability is innate. I just wonder how he's going to adjust to more advanced pitching, when he can't use only his hand-eye coordination, and has to get more involved in adjustments and game-planning.

Justin (Chicago): I'm actually really excited with the strides the White Sox system has made. Sure it's not a top 10 system by any means, but where they have came from is pretty impressive. Do you agree?

Jordan Gorosh: Hahn has done an excellent job since he's stepped into the driver's seat. They have added quite a bit of young talent to that organization. While I would agree it's not in the top 10, it was dead last for quite some time, and looks like it's on the up swing.

Peter (Florida): a lot gets said about Javy Baez' struggles at the plate. Alcantara had a bit of a disappointing year with the bat at well, though. Do you see anything particularly worrying there or this just the typical rookie struggles?

Jordan Gorosh: Rookie struggles. I like Alcantara quite a bit. He's going to have to improve his approach, no doubt. But, he's likely going to play somewhere in the middle of the diamond, and he did ISO 162, which is a bit more than I thought. With some BABIP bounceback and a more advanced approach, I think he's got the potential to be a damn fine player on a contending team.

Cal Guy (Cal): Jordan, Oh man, have we just seen a preview of what a healthy Bryce Harper is capable of doing? Please rank the Viva Las Vegas trio for most career homers, Harper, Bryant and Gallo.

Jordan Gorosh: I absolutely love Bryce Harper. I love watching him play, I love the way he swings the bat. He's already got a head start on both of those guys. I think Harper could be a generational talent, and the only reason he doesn't get more love, outside of 'attitude' concerns, is because some guy named Mike Trout has overshadowed him.

JohnnyFive (Washington): Why doesn't Adonis Garcia get more pub? I know that he's 29 and all but he had a stellar year in 2014.

Jordan Gorosh: Your answer is in your question.

Bill (Vancouver): Can you please tell me something positive about Austin Wilson's season? #hope

Jordan Gorosh: He's very large still.

Philip (SD Cal): Matt Wisler. Yay or Nay?

Jordan Gorosh: Could be a mid rotation guy for some time, so yes.

RatedRookie (Atlanta): A few more strong outings in Arizona and then spring training and we can all begin dreaming on Taijuan Walker becoming a no. 2, right?

Jordan Gorosh: I still think he's a #2 at least, and have continued to drive that bandwagon. Excited for his 2015 campaign.

Jim (Boston): What are your thoughts on Jorge Alfaro's progress?

Jordan Gorosh: He's now in his 'man' body. It should be interesting to see what happens next season, as I think he may be around for a late arrival for 2015. But, he's still very young and at a demanding position. He's going to take his lumps in the high minors a bit, as some of the aggression may get the better of him. Yet, he possesses skills that very few players have to offer.

Quiggs (Seattle): Could Franklin Barrett have a Jose Altuve type career, the tools seem a bit louder but Altuve has exceeded what his tools should in the minors

Jordan Gorosh: Altuve hit his 100% ceiling. Not many guys do that. Barreto is a nice prospect, but I'd be hard pressed to tell you he's going to hit that 100% ceiling. In addition, he's a CF in the end, not an infielder.

Dan (Indianapolis): Do you think Cole Hamels gets traded this offseason? And what kind of package would you say gets it done? Also, the Reds seem to have a lot of SPs available that have expiring contracts after next year. Do you see any of them getting traded this winter?

Jordan Gorosh: I don't really see why Philly would keep him. He's probably their best asset, and the team is desperately in need of young talent. I do think the Reds take one more run at it, they ran into some bad luck this season, and are a couple pieces away.

Jon (Illinois): How does Gleyber Torres' season bode for his ranking? With the graduated prospects, does he have a shot at top ten in the org this winter?

Jordan Gorosh: The Cubs list has gone through the BP evaluation process, but I'd prefer not to say where his placement is, or if he's been placed. After the world series, we're going to start rolling out top ten lists.

cracker73 (Florida): Chris Carter was a much better hitter after July 1. Do you think that the difference was a fluke, or because of changes in his swing or approach?

Jordan Gorosh: Yes to both? It seemed like every single fly ball he hit went out of the park. At the same time, he was swinging at more 'driveable' pitches and making loud contact. I'd expect something between his second half surge and the rest of his career going forward. The adjustments are likely real in some sense, but I don't think he's quite as good as he was, nor as bad as he'd been.

John (Boston): The Red Sox have to find room for Mookie every day next year, right? Do you see a 20/20 .300/.350/.450 season coming soon?

Jordan Gorosh: You'd think they'd find room for him, but I'm sure some intriguing trade offers are going to come in, and the Sox will weigh those as well. I think his OBP is going to be higher than .350 if he hits .300, as the walk rate should be 9-11%.

RatedRookie (Atlanta): Predict the MLB debuts of (1) Lucas Giolito; (2) Carlos Correa; and (3) Carlos Rodon. Also, comment on whose 2015 MLB debut excites you most.

Jordan Gorosh: Giolito- late 2016/early 2017. Correa- up in the air due to injury, but potential Sept 2015 or early 2016. Rodon- May/June of 2015.

John (Chicago): Is Andrew Heaney a top 29 prospect? Should i be discouraged about his late season struggles?

Jordan Gorosh: I wouldn't be worried. He's got Low No. 2 upside, and should settle in nicely in the middle of a rotation. His stuff is high-end for a left hander.

RatedRookie (Atlanta): Any hope for the Hoosiers upcoming basketball campaign?

Jordan Gorosh: I think so, they're likely a low to mid in the tournament this year. Can really shoot, but are going to have to play very small. James Blackmon is going to be a dude.

Ken (Cleveland): You touched a bit on him earlier. Do you see Tapia taking another step forward and becoming a top 25ish prospect. Or has his shine worn off a bit from all of last preseasons hype?

Jordan Gorosh: None of the shine has worn off for me, and I could certainly see him in that type of range.

Ted (Williamsburg): Thanks for chatting with us, Jordan, Lewis Thorpe: what do you hear about his stuff? Did it take a step backwards this season?

Jordan Gorosh: I don't think the stuff took a step backward. He's got aptitude and even though the command needs to take a couple steps forward, he has pretty big time upside.

Okay, a couple more questions and I'm going to get going.

Ken (Cleveland): Sure this is a common question. Which low level minor leaguer takes that huge leap into super prospect that seems to happen every year

Jordan Gorosh: Could see that with Leonardo Molina, Jefry Fernandez, Jorge Mateo, or Rafael Devers.

Ed (Mazara-what?): I haven't heard the mazara - Heyward comps before reading this, I didn't Mazara was in anyway the type of athlete that Heyward is, has things changed as he's grown?

Jordan Gorosh: It's more of a body comp than an actual skills comp.

RatedRookie (Atlanta): What needs to happen for Oscar Taveras to get more playing time? Realistic things, not just desirable ones like Matheny being relieved of his managing duties.

Jordan Gorosh: He needs to perform better. I don't necessarily blame Matheny for this one. They're trying to win a championship.

Scott (Lincolnshire): Have you a sense of where the Cubs high school arms/bonus babies from the 2014 draft are at in terms of development? Money well spent or just throwing a million at a couple arms and hoping for the best?

Jordan Gorosh: Not all of them have thrown in my patch yet, but most of them should next year. I think they spread out money across some very nice arms with plenty of promise. I like the strategy they took.

Jordan Gorosh: All right everyone, thanks very much for chatting with me. I'll be back next month, and will be at the AFL in late October.