|
Talk prospects and the mid-season Top 50 Prospects list with the Professor.
Jason Parks on the Top 50: "Predator is a 1987 American science fiction action horror film directed by John McTiernan, starring Arnold Schwarzenegger, Carl Weathers, Jesse Ventura, and Kevin Peter Hall. It was distributed by 20th Century Fox. The story follows an elite special forces team, led by 'Dutch' (Arnold Schwarzenegger), on a mission to rescue hostages from guerrilla territory in Central America."
Here we go
Ryan (Colorado): Where is Raimel Tapia on the updated list? how good can he be?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Now would be a good time to link to the list: The BP Top 50: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=24076
John (NJ): I know you were lukewarm on Nimmo from before the season. Is there any new scouting rationale for moving him up, or are the numbers and plate discipline too good to ignore?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I watched him in person; read reports from Jeff Moore from High-A. He can play CF and the approach is legit. Not sold on the power or overall impact potential of the bat, but he can play the game and there is a lot more developmental room in his profile.
Shaun (KC): Surprised about no Zimmer? How concerned was the staff of his injuries? Went from #34 to off the Top 50.
Also how close did Dozier come to grabbing a spot?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: When its the shoulder, I'm always very concerned. ZImmer has a high ceiling, but the injury scares me (especially because he's a pitcher)
Jason (NY): Thank you for not dropping Thor(Syndergaard) down the list. Way too many people seem to box score scout and are down on him. Any #wet reports on his changeup?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: He dodged a substantial injury and hasn't looked the part since returning, but the overall profile remains the same, despite a stat sheet that would suggest otherwise. He's a big, strong, athletic power arm with a double-plus FB, and two highly projectable secondary offerings that he delivers with sack. Developmental has its ups and downs. The profile keeps him high on the list.
Adam (NYC): Thoughts on Corey Seager? Beast?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Beast. Will likely develop into an above-average third baseman with utility in both hit and power tools. First-division player and potential all-star.
Cliff (St Louis): Hey Jason what have you heard about the cards' Alex reyes down in low-a peoria? Heard the stuffs nasty and he's a future ace. What's your take/scouting report?
Thanks man
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Nasty stuff but the delivery is well below-average at present and it limits his overall effectiveness. But he's a young pitcher and this is why he's in the low minors and not the majors. He has a lot of stuff to refine. When he does, it could be scary.
Nick (Windsor ): Hey Jason, i recently joined BP and have been blown away by the great job you and your team do, so for that thank you. I know you probably get this question a lot but as someone with aspirations of being a scout, how did you get into scouting? And what is the best way for someone young like my self to get into scouting? Thanks, and keep up the great work!
Jason Parks on the Top 50: First of all, I appreciate the kind words about our product. I'm quite proud of the team I have in place.
People get into scouting from multiple angles, so it just depends on what your long-term goals are. Personally, the best way to learn to scout or evaluate talent is to watch as much baseball in person as you possibly can. If you can drive to it, go to it. Document what you are seeing and take every step available to refine your eye, which is easier said than done and it takes time. Passion is what drives this process, as the money isn't going to be sexy and the grind is legit, especially on the industry side where the scouts live in the shadows and rarely receive any credit outside of their own orgs. You have to love it, man. If you do, go get it.
ryan (denver): With Correa out for the year what does that do to his ETA? Now just an espresso in 2015 followed by post-super two call up in 2016?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: If healthy, Correa would be the best shortstop option in that org. I'm not privy to his rehab schedule, but I would hope he could play in the AFL and come into camp at 100%, likely starting the 2015 season at the Double-A level before getting the call to the majors at some point that summer/fall. He won't be long for the minors. The Astros need to win and he gives them a better chance.
GrinnellSteve (Grinnell): What are the chances Courtney Hawkins puts together a credible major league career? Last year's debacle apparently didn't kill him. That's a victory right there, isn't it?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Developmental speaking, surviving and rebounding from setback is always a positive thing. But I don't see Hawkins as an impact talent at the major league level. Could be a AAAA type or maybe an up/down power guy only guy, but I don't see the hit tool utility to bring the bat into a major league regular profile.
Kip (Texas): Are you jumping off the Tyler Danish bandwagon yet?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I was on it from the beginning. I believe we were the highest on Danish of all the off-season lists. I'm not sure what Danish develops into, and its unorthodox, but I like the arm and I think he finds a way to defy the prototype we so often seek in a pitcher.
cal guy (cal): Hi Prof Parks, Correa was on pace for at least 30 steals. How many steals do you think he will making as a big leaguer?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Not 30. He will swipe a few because he's a smart base runner, but stealing against a High-A battery is a different animal than a major league battery.
MKPJ (Chicago): Thoughts on Schwarber? Can he handle Left Field?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I haven't seen him as a pro so I can't answer the defensive question. I've heard from scouts that aren't in love with his defensive profile in the outfield, but as every single one of them put it, the bat is where he will make his money. The kid can absolutely hit.
Hank (Houston): Can you give us an idea of the inner workings of a player development department?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I can't. For as much as I know about the process based on my experience with player dev personnel, I don't know the half of it, and I think it would be dishonest to attempt to give a credible answer on such a complicated question. Apologies.
Nathan (Boston): What do you know about Rafael Devers? He's a long long way away but if everything progresses, what is the potential reward?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: He can hit. I loved him when I saw him pre-J2 in the DR showcase, and every report since backs up my initial thoughts: this kid can rip it.
Wesley (Utah): Is Seth Streich a legit prospect?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: He has a legit major league projection so he's a prospect, but I wouldn't get too excited about it.
Clint (Arizona): Nick Williams' K% is right around where it was last year at the 27% mark. Is this just a sign of being raw in his game? Or is it something to worry about? How much upside does he have in the end? Top 50 prospect for you?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Williams is very raw in his game, and I could tell hours worth of stories about his adventures on a baseball field. But he can straight hit, with easy plus bat speed and balance, and the strength to develop plus over-the-fence power. He's not a true CF, but has more than enough tools to handle LF with more refinement. Refinement is the name of the game with Williams. Can he learn to take his raw tools and turn them into field actions that play? Big ifs but the bat is major league quality and he could really blossom into a high-end talent. I love watching Williams because you never know what you will see: 425ft bomb followed by two defensive errors followed by a laser throw from deep center followed by a 40 grade throw followed by a mistake on base followed by a base running gem. He's a mess but highly entertaining.
Chris (NY): Looking to target prospects in my fantasy leagues for trades. Value from 2015-2017. Do you think Almora or Alfaro can be MLB useful next 3 years?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: An alien spacecraft enters the Earth's atmosphere and jettisons a pod, which descends into a Central American jungle. Later, Major Alan "Dutch" Schaefer (Arnold Schwarzenegger) arrives in the same area with his elite team for an operation to rescue a presidential cabinet minister who had been abducted by guerrilla forces.
Calvin (Bronx): I know you recently saw Marcos Molina and Amed Rosario playing for the Brooklyn Cyclones. Are those two guys you see ending up in the top 5 of the Mets prospect list by season's end? And would you say both have star potential at the major league level?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I missed Molina, but I stay updated on his work. Both should be in the mix for the Mets top 5. Very strong system. I wouldn't say either player has star potential. I think they have major league potential with a chance for an impact future. Stars are rare.
Dave B. (South Korea): After Trout's monster home run in KC, I saw a former BP dude speculate over this: Who do we see first; another Bo Jackson or another Mike Trout? What say you?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I think we are more likely to see another monster athlete like Bo than a monster athlete like Bo that can bring all those raw physical gifts onto a baseball field like Trout.
Roy Munson (1978 Iowa State bowling champ): Do you still have high hopes for Giolito's change up? Do you think he could still be a dominant mlb pitcher without a plus change?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: He's in Low-A, so its a little early to accurately project or label his changeup. He has two absolute monster pitches in his arsenal and with more delivery consistency, the chanegup has every opportunity to get to a high level. Its not uncommon for power arms to develop high-end changeups after they reach the majors and discover how vital the pitch is for sustainable success. That's not usually the case in the minors.
Ace (PA): Has Nelson Cruz had 80 grade power all along?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: 80-grade raw power, for sure.
Alex (Florida): How concerned are you with Maikel Franco? His season so far has been uninspiring. Was his season last year a flash in a pan type of year?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I had problems with him last season after I sat on a series, and those problems continued this season. I think he has incredible bat speed but I don't like his swing mechanics and I think his hand/eye can only bail him out in certain situations. Major leaguer but not a first-division talent
jclarkin316 (CoMo): This is probably a ridiculous question, but was there legitimate excitement within the scouting community for Danny Almonte when everyone thought he was 12?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I'm sure the pedophile community was excited when they thought he was 12, but I can't speak for the scouting community at that time.
Balki (Chicago): With the recent acquisition of the Addison Russel, Billy McKinney and Dan Straily do the Cubs now have the best farm in the league?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Pretty good case; nobody can touch their impact bats; depth is obviously improving but it had a long way to go. I think Cubs and Twins are the two alphas of the minor league systems.
Ricky (Long Island): Jeff Paternostro says you're awfully proud of your inclusion of Marcos Molina in your Mets top 10 - has he been even better than you thought? What's his ceiling and overall arsenal?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I am proud. We took a lot of shit for that ranking. I have really good sources and I trust their opinions on players that I haven't seen or haven't seen enough of. Molina had heat after his complex league season and we felt his profile warranted a spot on the off-season Mets Top ten. Everybody else can play catch-up now.
Chris (Baltimore): How much did Jorge "The Legend" Alfaro's defense and (lack of) receiving skills hurt him in the rankings? Does his bat have top 10 potential?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: With Alfaro, its time to see more production. The tools are incredible. We all know this. But I'm ready to see it manifest on the field with more consistency.
drmorris75 (SF): We get it -- Crick's a reliever. If you're advising the Giants, do they hold onto him and reap a shutdown closer, or flip him now for a bat?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I think that system is loaded with power arms, and based on my recent look at Richmond, they have power relievers that I like more than Crick--in that specific role. I would have moved Crick last season when his value was higher, which is easy for me to say on the internet. Its not as easy for a team to trade a guy with that much upside despite the signs pointing towards a relief future.
Jens521 (Clark and Addison Russell): 3 of the top 6 is kinda absurd, in the best way possible. How does the Cubs system now compare to the top ranked systems in recent memory? And how do they avoid the fate of the Royals, besides prayer?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I would highly recommend voodoo.
Moe (Ann Arbor): If Taijuan Walker would've been eligible, where would he have slotted in on the list?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Top 10. Strong case for top arm. Frontline profile remains but the injury concern lingers.
Rob (Baltimore): Have you been able to put eyes on Bundy since he has been back? Surprised to see him so high after just a few starts.
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Huge makeup guy/hard worker. Tucker Blair recently saw Bundy: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_pit.php?reportid=174
Bundy is a stud. With the injury behind him, get ready for the ride.
spncrpatterson (SBP): In the Top 50 you said with a strong second half that Addison Russell could challenge for the top spot in the minors. Like...above Buxton?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Yes. He's a legit shortstop (he will stick at the position; ignore others who suggest he won't) with a legit hit tool and legit power potential. Those players are extremely rare, and if he starts to put it together on the field after the hamstring injury setback, he could challenge Buxton for the top spot in the minors. This is a very high-end talent.
mustard pickle (condiment land): Any consideration for Dilson Herrera? If this was a top 100 would he be on it?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Maybe on the 101, but he wasn't in consideration for the 101. Not sold on the profile yet. He has bat speed but he's loose with his approach and I don't love his skills in the field. He's a legit athlete and can already bring the bat into game action, so I can see a major league regular. I don't see a higher ceiling than that based on my limited looks and outside reports.
Mark (KS): Zimmer & Frazier both were in the top 40 in January. Is the Zimmer injury the reason for his decline or has there been a rise of the rest that caused these 2 to fall?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Zimmer's injury/Frazier's lack of production and a few makeup reports that raised some concern about his approach.
billshiers (New York): What's the material difference between Arismendy Alcantara and Dilson Herrera? Their profiles and body types seem similar. Their production is reasonably similar. Alcantara seems to have a bit more pop, but Herrera is 2 1/2 years younger and playing only 1 level lower.
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I think Alcantara has more skills (tool utility) and a better profile and versatility on defense.
Austin Hedges (San Antonio): Do I still have a slice of your heart?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I ranked you 20th in the minors despite a slow start with the stick. Let me know who else goes that high on you.
Mario66 (Pittsburgh): Where would Mookie be? And how you rate Betts, Odor and Alcantara relative to each other? Thanks.
Jason Parks on the Top 50: 10-15 range.
Scott (Philly): Is Ramiel Tapia the next Gregory Polanco?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: No. Different physical profiles.
ketchup pickle (condiment land): What's up with Joc Pederson's strikeout rate?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: He sees a lot of pitches and has some swing and miss in his game.
Neymar jr. (An hospital in Brazil): Bom dia Jason. How long is Daniel Missaki from a top50/top101 list? #samba
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Let's see what happens, but I don't see him joining the conversation for a while. I thought you were faking at first. Sorry about that.
Jeff Moore (in my room): Who will be the Cubs' starting SS in 2016?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Addison Russell
Bret (Toronto): Was Dalton Pompey in the conversation at all? What held him back?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: He wasn't. Top 101 but not a top 50. Not sold he's actually going to hit against better arms. Double-A test will be huge.
@InfraRen (Minnesota ): With JO Berrios and Kohl Stewart hopping Alex Meyer on this list, is that an indictment of the future of Meyer or just that Berrios/Stewart have had better years as opposed to Meyer's inconsistency?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Alex Meyer is ranked #12 on the list, so neither Berrios or Stewart hopped him.
Tim (Winston-Salem): How could you Jason? I thought we had something special.
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Anderson? We ranked you on the Top 50. You will be fine.
Dave (Boston): Where's Fringe Average Jason? BP got you pushing too many pencils?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: The team consists of Mac Eliot (Bill Duke), Blain Cooper (Jesse Ventura), Billy Sole (Sonny Landham), Jorge "Poncho" Ramirez (Richard Chaves), and Rick Hawkins (Shane Black). Dutch's old military friend George Dillon (Carl Weathers), now working for the CIA, accompanies them as a liaison. The team is inserted into the jungle by helicopter and begins its hunt.
Eric (Houston): What was the most pessimistic opinion of Appel among members of your prospect team?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: That he wasn't a sure fire major leaguer.
Manny (Iowa): I know the difference between #1 and #3 is splitting hairs, but can you make the case for Kris Bryant being no doubt #1 prospect in the game? Has absolutely demolished AA and now AAA, where as Buxton and Correa have battled injuries and never been above A ball. Their ceilings that much higher?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Bryant has a case. As good as he will be, I don't think he profiles at a premium spot with a premium ceiling, like Buxton and Correa. Keep in mind that both Buxton and Correa were high school draftees and they aren't in the same spot as Bryant--developmentally speaking. That makes the projections more abstract--which can make ranking them alongside polished college mashers quite difficult.
Dave (Boston): Good call on Josh Bell's breakout season. Thoughts on his eventual position in the majors? Bat will play at 1st, correct?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Bat will play at 1B but hopefully he can make a corner outfield position work.
JWhitlow (IL): CJ Edwards not high enough to make cut?
Or injury ?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I wasn't top 50 high on him before the injury.
gumby (MN): A prominent online columnist has indicated very recently that to him, Berrios isn't a top 100 prospect because the lack of movement on his fastball doesn't make up for the lack of downward plane. I'm not trying to ignite debate, but rather, this pronouncement is going to stick with me until I hear a counterargument about the quality (not just velocity) of his fastball. Is there more to be concerned about than just the risk of not having the stamina?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: We have put eyes on him this season and movement wasn't an issue with his fastball. This is why seeing players in person is so vital when forming and propagating scouting opinion. Here's a good (free) report on Berrios from Jeff Moore: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_pit.php?reportid=105
CJNC1963 (NC): Did Jose Peraza of the Braves come close to making the list?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: He wasn't in the mix; likely on the 101
Augie (Brooklyn): Loved the updated Top 50. Thanks for the great work! Who are your favorite 2014 draftees and how many do you think you will rank on the Top 101?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Grant Holmes was a personal favorite. I think we are going to look back and wonder why such a fast-moving arm slipped so far in the draft. He could make a push for the 101.
Augie (Brooklyn): Loved the updated Top 50. Thanks for the great work! Who are your favorite 2014 draftees and how many do you think you will rank on the Top 101?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Grant Holmes was a personal favorite. I think we are going to look back and wonder why such a fast-moving arm slipped so far in the draft. He could make a push for the 101.
Bryce (Cambridge): I know you see Luke Jackson has a possible bullpen arm, but was he discussed for the top 50 at all? Top 101 possibility if he keeps this up in Frisco?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: He wasn't in the discussion. 101 is likely, even with a reliever profile.
Bryce (Cambridge): I know you see Luke Jackson has a possible bullpen arm, but was he discussed for the top 50 at all? Top 101 possibility if he keeps this up in Frisco?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: He wasn't in the discussion. 101 is likely, even with a reliever profile.
Dave (LA): How does the recent trade affect A. Russell's value in a 5x5 dynasty league?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: They soon find the wreckage of a downed helicopter and later, the remains of Army Special Forces soldiers, whose presence in the country puzzles Dutch. The group is horrified to find the bodies have been hung and have had their skin removed. They track the guerrillas to a heavily defended rebel encampment, which they destroy except for a woman named Anna (Elpidia Carrillo) whom they take prisoner.
Brian (Jacksonville, IL): How close were Jorge Soler or Albert Almora to making the list? And where does the Cubs minor league system now rank in the league with the addition of Addison Russel?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Almora made the list.
jalsaur9 (colombia): amigo, un abrazo desde colombia, que progresos ve de JORGE ALFARO y si usted cree que ya el debe estar en AA, y cuando podria estar dando el sanlto a grandes ligas. gracias
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Hola mi amigo de Colombia. Creo Alfaro tiene que mostrar mayor coherencia en el campo. Futuro muy brillante. Pero tiene que empezar a mostrar más con el bate. Cuidate-- Lo mejor
SkatingTripods (Cleveland): Clint Frazier was #36 on the preseason 101. Nowhere to be found on the Top 50. What changed?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: He hasn't played well and the makeup reports could be better
Bryce (Cambridge): I see Brinson just missed the top 50...could you give some insight into his ceiling? He has some ridiculous tools at his disposal.
Jason Parks on the Top 50: HIgh ceiling; five tool potential. Not sold on the hit tool yet but his adjustments so far have been very impressive and speak not only to his makeup but to the approach/process from the Rangers player dev.
Andy (Oakland): Can I get at least a little bit excited about Daniel Robertson as my team's shortstop of the future? Numbers pretty similar to Russell's at the same age/level, with better plate discipline to boot.
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I really like Robertson. He's a player. Its a little too early to label him as the shortstop of the future, but I really like his chances of not only reaching the majors but developing into a regular.
Bill (Bozeman): Do Christian Binford and Jonathan Dziedzic of Wilmington profile mostly as relievers at the highest level, or is there a chance for them in the rotation of (hopefully) good teams?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Binford is swing/long man for me with a chance to be a 5th starter if he can add some mustard to the mix. After watching him in person, his numbers are definitely better than his scouting report.
Rob (Alaska): Recognizing they weren't candidates for this list, how are Nomar Mazara and Ronald Guzman progressing?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Mazara is climbing quickly; likely to be a top 101 this off-season. Very good hitter that is likely to explode in the next few seasons.
Luc (Atlanta): Did I not see Kyle Zimmer on the list? It's not like he had TJ surgery.
Jason Parks on the Top 50: No; he just missed the season with a shoulder injury, which is scarier.
Aaron (Long Beach): Cubs or Twins system?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Cwibs
Tim (Munster, IN): Has your opinion on Kris Bryant's hit tool improved? I believe you had him at a 5 for hit in the pre-season list with a concern that the hit tool could limit his in-game power.
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I still think he's a 5 hit tool at the end of the day, which might end up being low. I think he's going to offer more swing and miss at the higher levels, which shouldn't limit his game power but should bring down his average. Maybe a .265/.270 bat with 30+ bombs? I'll take that all day long.
Cwebb (Maine): What else does Lindor have to prove in minors? Will you be surprised if Cleveland is shopping Cabrera at deadline to open up SS for him?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Nothing. His glove was major league ready when he was born.
John (DC): I read a Billy Hamilton comp for Jose Peraza. Thoughts?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I don't see that
Bill (Bozeman): Any chance for the whispered notion of Cheslor Cuthbert moving to second is workable given his tool set?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I would worry about the athleticism and agility necessary to develop into a legit 2B. Maybe.
Russ (Chi Town): Thoughts on Carlos Rodon? Am i crazy to think he'll be better than Aiken?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: No. AIken brings a lot to the table but I think the Kershaw comps require drugs to be believable. Rodon was the top arm for me in the class. It's not crazy to think he;s better.
Dave (Houston): I was surprised to see Appel still in the top 50. His numbers have been horrible and a recent first-hand look published at BP painted a grim picture. Not to write him off entirely, but what made him a top 50 for you now?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: It wasn't that long ago that Appel was 93-97 with a wipeout slider. He's had setbacks. Let's see how he responds. Failure can be a good thing, and I'm not sure he's ever tasted failure quite like this. The makeup reports have always been iffy--especially when it comes to fortitude. Now is the perfect opportunity to see what Appel is made of.
Keith Hernandez (Just for Men): You originally thought Tim Anderson was more suited for 2B, but the latest Top 50 suggests a move to CF. Is this due to defensive concerns with groundballs and turning double plays?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I didn't write the Anderson capsule. But I think his likely home is either 2B or CF.
Tom (MN): Reports from Fort Myers have Jose Berrios getting the bump to AA New Britain today. What are you going to be looking for out of him as he makes the jump?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: The ability to make his pitch when he needs to make his pitch, and to sequence his arsenal multiple times through better orders. Double-A is always a good test for prospects, both on the mound and in the box.
Nick (New Jersey): As a Yankees fan,the Eric Jagielo/Aaron Judge/Ian Clarkin group is terribly exciting to me. With Luis Severino making the list and Rob Refsnyder destroying Triple-A and the oodle of international signings, how do you view the New York farm going forward?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I'm not high on the Yankees farm system and I think a large majority of their prospects get overhyped by national media sources. The reports on Severino are legit, but most still suggest a reliever future--even though it could be a very legit late-innings profile. The new LA crop will be very interesting. I love high ceiling talent but it comes at a very high risk and the Yankees have struggled with development in recent years.
jhensley (St. Louis): Where would Marco Gonzales have been if not in the majors? Was he in consideration for the list?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: He was in the 45 range before getting the call.
Justin (Pittsburgh): Last week you tweeted that the Pirates were going to place 5 players in the top 50. I see only 4 made the final cut. How close were McGuire and Meadows to cracking the list?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Meadows wasn't in the mix; McGuire was a late cut after a fresh report came in blowing up Lorenzen.
Tommy B (Chicago): Chicago Cubs starting infield in 2017 is......?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: A borderline snuff film
Steven (NOLA): H
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Dutch is enraged when Dillon confesses the rescue mission was just a ploy to get his group to attack the rebel camp and that the men they had found in the downed helicopter had disappeared in a failed rescue of two CIA agents. As the team make their way to the extraction point, they are observed from afar by an unknown creature using thermal imaging.
Charlie (Bethesda): You are obviously very high on Giolito, and BP scouted his FB/CU/CH as 80/80/70 (potentially), and has said his curve might be the best at any level in the system. This raises the question as to why he isn't the #1 or 2 overall. I don't know if it's just the injury risk, as some of the guys above him have some significant health issues as well. I'm not lobbying for him to go up higher, just wondering if I'm missing some thing.
Jason Parks on the Top 50: The talent above him on the list is more refined (more representational) and comes with less risk. But I wouldn't argue with Giolito being even higher based on his ultimate upside.
flashtheleather (In the 6 hole): Alex Meyer at 12? Does this mean your team thinks he has an elite ceiling, or ready for the bigs, or both? He still seems to have a little issue with the walks, but the Ks keep coming. Do you have a report on his changeup development?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Elite is a strong word, but I think he offers impact potential in his ceiling (#2 starter) and his floor (frontline closer). That's a nice profile to bring to the table and helps balance the risk/reward.
Ian (MPLS): Between Sano, Bryant and Gallo, who has the most power? Are all of them 80 power on the scouting chart?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: They are all 80 for me on the 20/80 scale. Gallo has the most raw I've ever seen in the minors. If you could give out a 90 to only one hitter, it would go to Gallo
achaik (Maine): Re: Trout/Jackson. Am I crazy for thinking that Trout is what a healthy Eric Davis could have been? Davis seems to have had a hit tool that Bo didn't (less raw, admittedly).
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Not bad. Can we all take a minute to appreciate how amazing Eric Davis was, and what he could have become if he stayed healthy? It's magical. If Davis stayed healthy, we could be talking about one of the best all-around players in the modern era.
Jeffy (DC): Michael Taylor's starting to look like our CF of the future. Is he a Mike Cameron clone?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I really like Taylor. Huge tool collection that lacked much utility or consistency. Still some questions about the stick and how it ends up playing but I love the progress he has made. Big talent.
Nils (CT): Does Max Fried have the potential to move into the top 25 with a strong 2nd half?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: That seems high. Securely in the top 50 with a rebound.
James (Phoenix): Please send me a link to the FREE version of the Top 50 - thanks bruh
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Anna briefly escapes, but when Hawkins catches her, he is stabbed and dragged off. The nearly invisible creature spares the unarmed Anna. Moments later, while the team is looking for Hawkins's killer, Blain is killed. Mac sees the creature and opens fire on it, but it disappears into the jungle. Anna offers the team insight on the creature which has been something of a local legend for many years. The team sets a trap, but it avoids capture, severely wounding Poncho in the process. Mac and Dillon are killed in the ensuing chase, and Billy is slain making a stand.
josh (Brooklyn): Steven Matz has had an excellent season and has had excellent stuff and slowly seems to be putting the injury concerns behind him. Was he in the discussion? I know Mr. Moore likes him.
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Some of my best friends in the scouting community love Matz. Here's my guarantee: I will be writing a "What Did I Miss?" on Matz before this season is over.
Sam (LA): How do the Astros not have the top farm system with three #1 overall picks in a row? Should it be considered a failure?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I don't think you can define a system based on their first draft pick. Talent is acquired through various means, and the best systems in baseball are stocked with players from all markets. The Astros have had a very big advantage when it comes to talent procurement, but the early picks aren't the only prospects in their system and other teams simply have more talent at the minor league level than they do (at present).
Mario66 (Pittsburgh): Any reports on Cleveland catcher and BP Top 10 darling Francisco Mejia?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Loaded with tools but he's not going to be an overnight sensation. Double-plus arm; big time bat speed. Still raw. Love the profile but its going to take some time.
Dominic Smith (LOW A): That's a lot of at bats without a HR. Are you surprised by this?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: No. I didn't go high on you this off-season for a reason, and I was curious what others saw when they decided to. You can hit and you are super young. That's no joke. But I never saw the big power potential and you lack defensive value. Call me when you are raking in Double-A and I'll start to pay more attention. Until then you are a first base prospect without much power, and that profile isn't all that sexy.
Tom (KC): Still love Adalberto Mondesi?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Yes.
Me (Here): Can Austin Meadows shoot up these lists with a healthy 2+ months and successful fall season?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: He can certainly move up the lists with a strong showing and good reports from instructs.
Sam (LA): Has there been a Major Leaguer that you were dead wrong on? What did you learn from that experience?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Sure. Several. I try to learn from the failures as well as the successes. I fall victim to my own scouting biases and stereotypes, and its always a good idea to look at your evaluations and make sure your process is sound. I don't mind being wrong. I mind being wrong with a shitty process that works against me.
Sam (LA): Worst Farm system now? Is it the Angels, A's, or the Giants?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Angels have a long way to go.
@InfraRen (Minnesota): I incorrectly read something on the Meyer/Stewart/Berrios thing. My tail is tucked, and my #want rating has plummeted to unforeseen levels.
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Happens to all of us. Untuck.
Gabe (TX): Is Brandon Wood a cautionary tale for Kris Bryant?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: No. DIfferent hitters with different approaches. Bryant is going to hit. Its just a question of softcore or hardcore. Both will do the trick but some like to see a little bit more.
Brady (Library): Why isn't Gallo rated higher?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Because
The Predator (South American Jungle): More tragic: My finishing of Carl Weathers, Ivan Drago beating him to death, or Happy Gilmore scaring him out a window?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Rocky 4 hurt a lot of feelings. It's not believable that Weathers would go out that way. That's fantasy.
Zack (ottawa): how does a guy from Texas end up living in Bushwick? did u go there for school?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I like living in loud Puerto Rican/Dominican neighborhoods and paying way too much for the privilege, and you just can't do that in North Texas.
John (Seattle): (insert question off topic enough to get an update on the Predator plot)
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I have to jump on a quick BP Top 50 related radio spot. Be right back.
Scott (Colorado): Right now who would you compare Raimel Tapia to?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Steve Finley
Brady (Southeastern): Any news on Ben Lively and how he would compare on the list?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Very good arm but not a high-end profile; more of a #4 type. Not in consideration for the 50 despite the strong production.
bathtubjim (Madison): Gabby Guerrero, I know he wasn't close to the top 50, but what are your thoughts on his season? First division potential?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I love watching him play but I do have a feeling he gets exposed in AA. The approach has holes, as does the swing. Again, I love watching him swing the bat but I'm not sold the pitch recog is going to be good enough.
Nick (MA): Did Red Sox farmhands having huge years Deven Marrero, Sean Coyle, or Brian Johnson get consideration for the top 50?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: They didn't.
boatman44 (Liverpool): If you where Billy Beane,would you have made that trade ?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I would want a ring and those arms help my cause in 2014. It would have been extremely painful but the answer is yes.
Kyle (Ontario, Canada): Would you be in favor of putting Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris in the Toronto pen after the break? That's being considered according to a tweet from Jim Bowden.
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Sanchez makes more sense than Norris.
Jesse (NY): How did Meyer rocket up? I know some of you guys still viewed him as a Bullpen guy. What changed?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: High ceiling/high floor. Impact potential in either role. Huge value.
Don Loria (Milwaukee): My buddies and I debate a lot on Gallo v. Bryant (we're admitted #powerwhores). Besides maybe a half grade in the hit tool and Bryant being older/more advanced... same player?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I think Bryant has less swing and miss in the zone, which is something scouts always point to when discussing hit tool projection. Gallo has improved a great deal but I think the holes will face more exploitation against better arms.
Jim (Chicago): I'm curious about the exclusion of Clint Frazier on the list. Do you think it may be a little harsh to say he hasn't performed when he's only 19 years old? Not trying to be mean or anything Jason, and I fully respect your work and think you're the best source for information like this on the web, but it just seems like Appel gets a free pass, but Frazier doesn't. Different players, so it may be wrong for me to compare these two. Maybe the best question is, can you expand on the concerns you have about his makeup reports? Thanks Jason for doing these awesome chats, and I hope you don't take my question the wrong way.
Jason Parks on the Top 50: It's not harsh if he hasn't performed. That's just a reality. This was a top tier pick in the draft and a big swinging dick on the backfields. Him not hitting is a legit thing to question.
He's a confident kid that walks the line with being overly cocky. Makeup is often viewed as a personality trait, and perhaps on some level that plays an inherent role. But I see makeup as the willingness and the ability to make adjustments through instruction and hard work. Frazier's a guy who can rub people the wrong way, and I'm sure that plays a role in some of the reports I have received. But despite his shaky start, he was still in the mix for the top 50, which should speak to his tools and ultimate upside.
nottes (MD): How close are the ceilings of Giolito and Bundy? Is it a coin flip or do you clearly prefer one?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: There isn't a pitcher in the minors that can match Giolito's upside.
Chris (cube farm): This is a really dumb question, Professor, but I have to ask...In a recent prospect chat here on BP (I don't remember whose chat, but it wasn't yours), somebody asked what percentage of the midseason top 50 would end up All Stars. The response was 98% to 100%. I understand they all presumably have All Star ceilings, but isn't it unreasonable to say that all of them WILL be All Stars? What's your take on that?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Less than 25% would be my guess.
DeathSpeculum (#iwillshitin): more valuable player right now Addison Russell or jeff samardjza?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Shark has the most value right now.
tybradley (SD): Manuel Margot made strides this seasons? Future 6 role in CF?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: That's the ceiling. Realistic is probably a bench outfielder
Titus (Gainesville, FL): I call BS on the Astros response. Not only have they had the number one pick, they've had way more money to spend in the draft and in the international market than any other team over that time, too. Maybe failure is too strong a word, but those are big advantages that they seem to be failing to maximize.
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I mentioned their advantages. But it takes more than just money and opportunity to acquire talent. They have done a very good job in recent years turning around an iffy farm system and I would still consider them a top tier org in that regard. But I do like a few other systems more, like the Twins and the Cubs--and perhaps even the Pirates.
Jason (Davis, CA): Do you lift?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: The Predator catches up to Dutch and engages in a short shootout during which Poncho is killed. Realizing the creature only attacks those possessing weapons, a wounded Dutch sends Anna unarmed to the extraction point. Jumping off a waterfall, he narrowly escapes the creature by masking his body's heat signature with mud and witnesses the Predator's true form when its active camouflage fails in the water. Dutch applies more mud, improvises various weaponry and traps, then baits the Predator into coming out by starting a large fire, and yelling a loud, barbaric war cry.
This guy (right over 'ere): Is Chi Chi's stuff good enough to work at higher levels? He's certainly a lot more hittable in AA (to be expected).
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Development can play tricks on the stat sheets. Chi Chi has more than enough stuff to play at the highest level. He just needs more time to refine/develop his secondary arsenal.
Mario66 (Pittsburgh): Has Yordano Ventura erased doubts about belonging in a rotation? Or is the concern among scouts more about durability than "starter's" stuff?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I think durability is always going to be a concern with a slight sub-6' righty that throws 100 from a slinger profile. He will have to prove it every year. But the best way to erase durability concerns is by being durable and giving your team 200 innings a season.
Chuck (Philadelphia): MOndesi or JP Crawford
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Mondesi
wade1018 (st. louis): What current MLB CF is a good comp for Dahl? Span? Ellsbury? Someone else?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Cutch could be the upside with Dahl, which is scary to even suggest. But some of the brightest scouting minds I know love this kid like they love few other, and that comp has come up in terms of upside.
TJ (Portland): What range would Heaney rank, if eligible?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: We had already submitted our list when he was sent back to the minors. He was originally in the #17 range
Or (Denton): Not technically a top 50 question, but if you only get to choose one for the next six years, do you take Rougned Odor or Jurickson Profar?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Odor.
Shaun (KC): Hi yes how are you would you rank these players: Buxton, Correa, Bryant, Lindor, Baez, and Russell? Think 3 of the cubs guyscould be Top 6 in all of the minors right now?
Thanks, I'll listen off the air
Jason Parks on the Top 50: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=24076
Ian (OK): Does Buxton have a healty Eric Davis ceiling? His 1987 season is tremendous.
Jason Parks on the Top 50: It could be that high, yes. Which is one of the reasons I can justify his lofty ranking despite the injury setbacks this season.
Justin (Chicago, IL): Here in Chicago, the big focus has been on Cubs prospects (and rightfully so). Any thoughts for us White Sox fans as far as their overall system? Are we starting to see any improvements?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I really like the way the White Sox have approach talent procurement in the last 18 months; amateur draft, international market, trades. I think its a smart org that has been making smart decisions, and the system strength reflects that. I like the direction they are heading, and they could add to the farm with a few clever deadline deals this summer.
Kurt (Milwaukee): Another prominent baseball opinion had Hunter Dozier going from unranked this offseason to #39 on their update today. BP didn't include him. How close was he to the Top 50?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: We've put a lot of eyes on Dozier this season, starting in camp and extending into the season. We have a very good handle on this player, and while we all certainly love his overall game, the reality is probably more of a role 5 (regular) than a huge impact talent with a higher upside.
Carl (The Present): Where would Taveras have slotted?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Most likely as the number two prospect behind Buxton
Silverback38 (VA): While not on the list, how does Daniel Norris compare to the other popularly discussed starters these days?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Daniel Norris was on the list
Jose (Manhattan): Do Molina and Rosario have a chance to make the 101 as early as this offseason?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Both will have cases; Rosario is more likely given his profile.
Noah (Kalamazoo): Trevor May might be having the best season of Twins pitchers; is his success at AAA some what muted by his struggles at AA in previous seasons? Was he considered at all for top 50? What kind of big leaguer does he profile as?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: He wasn't in the mix for the 50; backend profile for me/innings chewer without frontline upside.
Craig (Cali): Gallo or Seager?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Gallo. Close, though. Seager is going to hit.
Jordan (Vegas): First off, I want to say thank you for the great work you and your team does Jason. Truly appreciate it...
I wanted to ask what your opinion was on if the Cubs could of gotten more for Shark and Hammel? A few reports say the could of. I don't believe them. Your thoughts?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I can't imagine a scenario outside of a drunk fantasy baseball trade where the Cubs could have landed a better player than Addison Russell in the trade.
Jon (Santee, CA): Any thoughts on Tayron Guerrero? Chance to stick as SP?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: None.
Dan (Augusta, Me): Steve Souza doesn't seem to get much love from BP. Is it because of prospect age discrimination?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: That's probably part of it. But I bet he is a good candidate to get exposed by ML pitching and become more of a AAAA masher than a consistent ML regular.
Hopeful (The Internet): If you don't make it to some of our questions, will they roll over somewhere else or be forever lost in the internets?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I have close to 650 questions sitting in the queue. There is no chance I can get to a quarter of them. Too much #want on the site today.
Kurt (Vegas): Thoughts on Blake Swihart? Top C prospect in the game? Or is he still behind Alfaro in your book? What does the ceiling look like for him?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Hedges is still the top catcher for me, but Swihart is gaining on him.
Beattie (MA): Why isn't "the eye" considered a tool ranked on the 20-80 scale? Considering the ability to draw walks and find good pitches is incredibly important, I am.curious why it isn't rated?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I think the eye is a neurological function and separate from a physical tool. It's always factored into the overall equation.
Dillon's Arm ((the ground)): Im in a 16 team dynasty league with 45 minors spots. Can you give me two deep prospects you like that prob are not rostered? Good stuff on the 50.
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Hearing Dutch's war cry, the Predator arrives to investigate. Despite suffering minor injuries from his improvisation, the Predator eventually locates and traps Dutch. Discarding its electronic weaponry and infrared-vision helmet as a sign of respect, the muscular alien challenges Dutch to hand-to-hand combat. The ensuing fight is one-sided; the Predator is easily able to beat Dutch into submission, and moves in for the kill.
fsumagic (Houston): What is a realistic comp for Eddie Rosario? Did his suspension take him out of consideration?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I just saw Rosario in game action and I wasn't all that impressed. He has bat speed and has an approach but I don't love the bat control or some of the swing decisions he makes. From LF, its a tough profile and I'm not sold the power is really going to show up.
But on that squad, I really like Kennys Vargas. That kid has 70 raw and I think some of it will come out to play. Legit power profile from both sides of the plate.
Jim (Chi Town): Dahl Or Tapia?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: This is my least favorite question. This is like being forced to pick my favorite SVU character, which you would assume would be Ice but I really love BD Wong.
Tapia. Just because I love how he rocks the wide stance and I dropped a cross-race comp on him, which is always exciting.
Matt (Seattle): Did you ever scout Jake Arrieta? Is this just a hot streak or a case of a guy reaching his full potential?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I never really scouted him, although I did get to see him coming up. His breakout is real.
Sorry to do this but I need to step away for a few minutes to take a call. My brother is in the Navy and is about to deploy. I need to hear his voice for a few. Be right back.
Eric (Dallas): This just in from Jon Heyman (Twitter) - "No. 1 pick brady aiken is said to have an elbow ligament issue. astros look to discount deal."
Reaction?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: First of all, I apologize for the delay. I don't get to speak with my brother very often, so I need to jump on that at every turn. Thanks for being patient.
As for Aiken: That's a tough break for him. Interesting to see how this shakes out.
newsense (DC): Is there a good reason to keep Lucas Giolito in Low A any longer?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I would keep him there all season. Training wheels off next year.
Nick (MA): Henry Owens consistently gets swings and misses with 3 pitches in the minors. Doesn't that profile as a top of the rotation starter? Is the opinion of BP that major league bats won't be fooled by his stuff?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Nope. Fastball is more of an average offering that gets swings and misses from minor league bats but won't from major league bats. His CB is fringe and won't play without better FB command at the highest level, and his changeup is very, very good with a chance to be his signature pitch. #3 ceiling; likely a #4
Wayne (GA): Jon Heyman is reporting that Brady Aiken has an elbow ligament issue and the Astros are only offering 5 M right now (almost 3 M below slot). Just how bad is this situation?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Its bad for both parties because the Astros can't afford to come out of that spot without talent, and they haven't had the best run lately (on the field) and in the press, so any negative development will start to compound and look worse.
jsull11 (LIC, NY): Was Kevin Plawecki close to making the list? What is his ceiling?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: He was, actually. Legit role 5 catcher with good glove and stick
Nick (B): I believe his upside was only that of a no. 3 anyway, but has Eduardo Rodriguez lost most of his luster this year?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: He has struggled and more reports are suggesting a back-end future now.
Steve (Arizona): Which Diamondbacks SS would you rather have: Sergio Alcantara or Andrew Velazquez? I'm guessing Alcantara, but Velazquez did just tie Betts' on-base streak.
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Alcantara.
Behemoth (Scotland): How far off top-50 or even top-101 level is Teoscar Hernandez?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: 101 is very likely. Very happy for this kid. Glowing reports
Nils (CT): Will Steven Moya's hit tool allow him to become anything more than a power bench bat?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Highly unlikely
TJ (Novi, Mi): Raimel Tapia or Manuel Margot, better chance to be a 20-20 guy at his peak?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Tapia has the superior offensive upside
Festivus313 (Pitt): Are you buying Jake Lamb as a role 6?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I'm not
Bobby (Denver,CO): Are PECOTA comparable just fun or have you ever looked at them as a resource for getting a big picture of a prospect? Not relying upon them obviously, but as a partial gauge.
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I rarely find fun in them.
Mike (Chicago): What's your take on Julian Leon? The #ass is intruigung
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Very legit prospect. The reports have been very good.
Jordan (Vegas): Who has the better career? Baez or Russell?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Russell
Jeff (Wisconsin): How many cubs do you think will be in consideration for the offseason 101 list? I can think of as many as 11.
Jason Parks on the Top 50: The Cubs will likely place 97 prospects in the off-season BP 101. #CubsTwitter
Evan (Worcester, MA): Is expecting Deven Marrero to open the 2015 season as Boston's starting shortstop unrealistic? In that case, do you see Bogaerts at short to start the year, or do they bring in a placeholder for Marrero?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I'm not sold that he will hit enough to be a major league regular.
John (Chicago): Albert Almora has 10 walks in half a season. Please tell me things will get better with him.
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I care more about how players hit in the low minors than how often they walk.
Or (Denton): Nick Williams has said he believes he has the fastest hands in the minors. On the top 50 list, Javier Baez is credited with the fastest bat - where would Williams be on such a list? Top 5?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: He would be on the list. His hands are weapons. Premium hand speed.
Derek (Milwaukee): Nice little bump for Glasnow from preseason rankings. Is his ceiling a #1 starter?
Jason Parks on the Top 50: It's not. He doesn;t have the command profile or the secondary profile of a number one starter. He has a very sexy ceiling, but its not likely to be atop a major league rotation, regardless of what his High-A numbers might suggest.
DF (Wilmington, NC): As someone who grew up near Cincy, my man crush on Eric Davis has never waned. Thanks for helping to impress upon a generation who likely never saw him what an amazing talent he was.
Jason Parks on the Top 50: I wish I could go back to my childhood and pay more attention to him in game action.
Jason Parks on the Top 50: Huge turnout today, and its greatly appreciated. The BP 50 is a group effort, and while I get to bask in most of the glory, the entire BP Prospect staff deserves the credit.
Let's do this again soon. We had close to a 1000 questions asked. You guys keep breaking the records. I can't share the appreciation in an articulate manner. Thanks.
Battered and barely able to move, Dutch manages to drop the counterweight from one of his traps, which falls and crushes the creature. As Dutch asks the mortally wounded alien "what the hell are you?", the creature mimics his question in garbled English and then activates a self-destruct mechanism on its wrist, laughing maniacally as it does so. Dutch barely escapes the explosion and is rescued by the extraction helicopter, along with Anna and it can be see that Dutch is mournful over the loss of his team.
|
