Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Mauricio Rubio

Chat: Mauricio Rubio

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday April 09, 2014 7:00 PM ET chat session with Mauricio Rubio.

Mauricio is here to chew bubblegum and talk about your fantasy teams, and he's all out of bubblegum.

Mauricio Rubio: It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen. It's Chat time.

Frankie (queens): does zach wheeler take a step forward this year? what is his ceiling/floor?

Mauricio Rubio: I hope so. I think he's going to be a fantasy SP1 within a few years. Floor? He's injured all the time and keeps tipping his pitches and ends up as Brandon Morrow. I don't think that will happen though. He good man. He good.

John (Boston): Hey Mauricio,was thinking of trading for Jake Peavy,i know he's injury prone and 32 yrs old now for Allen Webster..Websters stock seems to be going down....do you feel I shouldn't give up on Webster yet???? Thanks!!!!

Mauricio Rubio: Assuming this is Dynasty, if you are looking to win right the hell now I would take Peavy over Webster. There are other pitchers I'd rather take on than Peavy, however. If the Webster market is exhausted and you're looking to win now I would gamble on Jake

Also, to better answer your questions please let me know the non standard categories and league depth. Thanks!

KcDozer (Florida): I've been getting crushed by injuries early. I'm in a 15 team mixed where my only healthy closer left is Latroy Hawkins, yeah I know. There are no closers on waivers and most of the really good closers in waiting are taken. I'm looking at names like A.J Ramos, Jake McGee and Edward Mujica. If you're speculating on future saves are there any under the radar options that people might not be that familiar with? Thanks.

Mauricio Rubio: Starting to think there are no healthy relievers left. I would say Cody Allen but Bret Sayre has blown him up already. Daniel Webb on the White Sox should get a look if Matt Lindstrom fails in Nate Jones' absence. Jeurys Familia has his issues and isn't exactly holding it down this year but he still throws hard and has a slider which is the requisite closer starting kit. Dellin Betances can get a look, there are a few names out there.

Kevin Brown (New York): Can you believe that Craig unfollowed me when I got to 420 followers? The nerve of some people. Anyway, with Matt Moore hurt, do you have any clue who will take his rotations spot or how worth it they would be to own? Also important, why is no one paying me to talk baseball? Thanks for all the answers, Kevin

Mauricio Rubio: I can absolutely believe that. I think Jeff Beliveau will take his spot but I wouldn't go heavy on him. I think Odorizzi's stock goes up though.

Tommy C (Illinois): I'm not sure I've ever seen you weigh in on this - what are your thoughts on vetoes? Are there any circumstances under which you would veto a non-collusion trade?

Mauricio Rubio: I don't like vetoes in a constitution. I'd never veto a non collusion trade because I know it'd be hypocritical. If I was offered a trade that was lopsided in my favor I wouldn't reject it. So why would I veto a trade that's lopsided that isn't about collusion?

Fred (MI): Is Javier Baez' penchant for striking out something that will be of concern upon his call-up and/or long-term?

Mauricio Rubio: There are going to be a lot of Baez questions here.

It's always been a concern and it will continue to be a concern until he proves that it isn't. The one thing that bothered me about Baez-mania was how convinced people were that he was ready to contribute at the MLB level. I think he has approach issues that are getting exploited by guys who know how to sequence.

That said, it is a small sample and I think he adjusts. It's his way, suck then destroy (Copyright Harry Pavilidis).

Billy (Chicago): What are your thoughts about Justin Smoak? It's a small sample this season, not he has looked good; always a patient hitter but now actually doing some of the hitting. With Cano in front of him, there will be opportunities. Thanks. Keep up the good work on TINO.

Mauricio Rubio: Thanks Billy. I need to see more from Smoak but I'm encouraged by his very early season success. I'm kinda buying it.

John Candelaria (Altoona): Is it time to say goodbye to Moose Tacos. I have him as Donaldson insurance in a 14 team points league. Should i drop him for Blackmon or Jim Henderson? My OF are Puig Martin and Aoki. My RP are Jim Johnson Chavez and Benoit Cody Allen and Daniel Webb also available

Mauricio Rubio: Yeah you know, I think it's time to say goodbye to Moustakas. If all the guys getting saves are gone I'd probably add an offensive contributor in front of guys like Allen Henderson and Webb. Blackmon is an interesting name but dig a bit deeper and see what's up.

Chris (SF): Am I better off keeping Taillon for next year in this dynasty league (12 teams, 7 prospects max) or going after someone who might be available? Any potential sleeper fantasy prospects I should look at?

Mauricio Rubio: I'd keep Taillon. He's still better than the sleeper options available in the long run. Nick Kingham is a name that keeps popping up but he has limited upside. The rest of the sleeper cast has limited upside, I think.

Pablo 3 Names (Washington DC): 25th anniversary of Major League was yesterday. Major League- great movie, or greatest movie?

Mauricio Rubio: I'm a Bull Durham guy but the more I watch Major League, the more I think I'm wrong. Greatest movie.

Cal Guy (Cal): Hi Mauricio, Two weeks in and already not looking good. How would you rank the following SP adds for a dynasty league: Bradley, J. Gray, Stephenson, Bundy, Giolito, Gausman, Sanchez and Urias?

Mauricio Rubio: Giolito – Gray - Bradley - Gausman – Stephenson – Urias – Bundy

I'm signing up for the Jonathan Gray newsletter with Ben.

Jake (Florida): How do you view Arismendy Alcantara in the long term as a fantasy prospect?

Mauricio Rubio: I have him on the same level as Rougned Odor. I sway on who I rank higher depending on the day (and league size). To me he's a do everything well guy with some risk. I think he can be a 20-20 guy. I'm really high on him.

Julio (San Antonio): que pasa? 12 tm H2H categories 6X6 (hlds & OPS) keeper. at $1 each; Owings, Colabello, Blackmon, and Semien. Who will I drop first who will be on my team all year and who will I sign to a 3 year contract?

Mauricio Rubio: Que pasa compa, Charlie Blackmon is the guy I think you're cutting first and I think you'll have a very happy life with Chris Owings. He's growing on me in a very positive way and I think he might be able to contribute across all 5 offensive categories.

AJ (Phoenix): Long-term (dynasty): Manny Machado or Javier Baez?

Mauricio Rubio: Love this question. Strictly fantasy wise I'll take Machado here. I think he can develop more power into his game and his learning curve isn't as steep as Javy's will be. It's a tight debate but I'll take Manny.

RUFF RUFF (Glendale): Best DMX song?

Mauricio Rubio: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aTTAB4V3-Zw

Frank (BK): thoughts on Braun? is he a buy/sell/or hold for you?

Mauricio Rubio: He's a hold for me, but I was high on him to begin with. The steroid thing clouds judgment in fantasy, I think. There's an inclination to dock a roid guy because we think he won't be as good when he gets busted. I think Braun will be fine and if he's a 20 SB guy, well. That's first round talent right there.

Dan (Toronto): What is Aaron Sanchez's ceiling and what's his chances of making a real impact with the Blue Jays this year?

Mauricio Rubio: His ceiling is the foundation of an irresponsible monument made out of dreams, raw stuff and suspect command.

His ceiling is high as hell, it's just going to be very difficult to get there. I don't know if he makes a real impact with the Jays this year.

Tommy C (Illinois): 6x6 Dynasty, pitching cats are: QS, SV, K, ERA, WHIP, K/BB. Which one of these relievers do you like the best (just trying to prop up ratios): Tony Watson Chris Withrow AJ Ramos Alex Torres Nick Vincent

Mauricio Rubio: I really want to say Alex Torres here because I love him, but his BB will likely kill you in the ratio stat. Tony Watson would be my primary target here.

Jake (Kalamazoo): Is Profar a buy low in dynasty right now? What kind of an offer would you put together?

Mauricio Rubio: I'd like to think so. I'm aggressively putting together offers for Profar but it's all team specific. I own Profar in a league where I could use some starting pitching and the offers I've been getting (Travis Wood types) are underwhelming to say the least.

SenatorsGuy (Mineapolis): What do you expect out of Taijuan Walker this year, and let's say three years from now?

Mauricio Rubio: Maybe 150 IP of 3.50 ERA ball, three years from now, hoping that the health is fine, I think he can be a frontline starter.

The health concerns are still minor enough but I'm slightly worried. Just slightly.

Slim Tracy (Hooville): Is Roman Reigns the Mike Trout of WWE? If so who is Bray Wyatt? R-O-S-C-O-E aka Mr. Shawty put it on me.

Mauricio Rubio: Is Roman Reigns a beast who keeps getting cheated out of a belt despite the obvious talent and production? If so, yes. As for the other guys, I have no idea but I respect and defend your desire to watch the WWE.

Phil (The Hot Corner): Who do you like for the rest of the season: Rendon or Headley? Already feeling like a fool for starting Headley daily while Rendon mashes, hoping he'll turn it around...

Mauricio Rubio: Rendon. I think Headley will be an ok fantasy player but I'm doubting the power output he had a few years ago. If he's closer to 20 HRs with a low average I'd rather play Rendon.

John Blanton (New York ): I recently reread Moneyball, and loved being able to look back at how their moves actually worked out, specifically regarding the draft. Given how adamant Billy Beane once was on spending a first round pick on a high schooler, what has changed that has them drafting so many in recent years?

Mauricio Rubio: I think that Beane is always looking for a way to beat the market. His strategy is ever evolving and once the book came out everyone kind of knew that OBP was undervalued so he had to adjust and eventually came up with this A's team that's different.

Baseball changed, so did Beane.

Alex (Anaheim): Do you think Yangervis Solarte will continue to be a viable fantasy player?

Mauricio Rubio: I no, but I'm tepid with that take. He was solid in other organizations, I'd roll with him in deep leagues but in shallower (12 tm) I'd be looking for an upgrade.

Shark Normandini (H-Town): 5 MLB Astronauts to save the world...go!

Mauricio Rubio: Juan Uribe - Old Vet who's full of Wisdom
Jose Fernandez - Young Hot Shot with loads of promise
Giancarlo Stanton - Dreamboat
Matt Holliday - Quite reserved guy just there to get the job done
Yasiel Puig - The ultimate wild card

Matt (Loughborough, UK): 15 team standard 5x5. With Josh Hamilton out for 6-8 weeks, who do I pick up to replace him? BJ Upton, Almonte, Solarte or Ludwick?

Mauricio Rubio: Abe Almonte? Between him and Hamilton it almost sounds like you have a type. I'll say Ludwick.

Bill (Duval): Who would you rather have at your middle infield spot? This is 15 team roto. Flaherty, Schoop, or Hechavarria? Who do you think plays 2B for the Orioles when Machado gets activated? Thanks and Keep up the great work with BP and Tino

Mauricio Rubio: That's a rough go at MIF. I prefer Schoop and I think he plays over Flaherty.

#Craij (DC): Can You recommend a good wallet for holding change?

Mauricio Rubio: No, but I can tell you with certainty that no one in the history of car rentals has ever declined the insurance. No one.

Ben Carsley (Boston): Is Billy Hamilton fast and do you know of some sort of social media site where I can receive frequent updates about his speed as it relates to other baseballers?

Mauricio Rubio: Haven't heard, really. My sources say he's fast but I'll believe it when I see it.

Jake (Kalamazoo): Looking for a speculative closer play. Who do you prefer among Nate Jones, Daniel Webb, Ryan Webb, LeCure, Hoover, Betances, Joba and Alburquerque?

Mauricio Rubio: Nate Jones with Daniel Webb and Betances a close second and third. Closers are kind of imploding league wide right now and it's a very unstable position. I think the situation in Chicago is going to be really murky even when Jones comes back. I don't believe in Lindstrom and I think Webb could get a look.

Babe Gross (The Projects): 5x5 league, should I drop Cahill for Volquez? Also would you trust any person who has a paw print tattoo?

Mauricio Rubio: Anytime the word "confusing" is thrown around a pitcher I worry. I don't particularly like Volquez but given a choice between the two...I take Volquez.

Gravybill (New York, NY): In a 5x5 16 team league with 40 man rosters, I was offered Holliday and Alfaro for Abreu and Kingham. I am not ready to compete this year and am shallow at CI (I'd have to start Plouffe, Asche or Ike Davis if I made the deal)so I turned it down. Do you think that's the right call? Thanks as always, I'm a big fan of your work!

Mauricio Rubio: Thanks Gravybill. I love The Legend but yeah I think that was the smart play here. It doesn't really make sense to give up two guys under thirty to get a good prospect and one guy well over thirty in return. That said, I think there's potential for a deal here if the other owner is willing to deal Alfaro. Don't give up on that angle quite yet.

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We're about to start a bit of a Baez run on questions.

Loria (Miwaukee): Deep, 20 team dynasty. Traded Baez & Pence for Sano & Stanton before the season started. That's looking better now, agreed? Do u worry about Stanton's health??

Mauricio Rubio: I do worry about Stanton's health but that's a solid trade. Baez will hit, and that will hurt one day but you won today.

Baelish (Milwaukee): I was offered Machado & Glasnow for my Baez. Which side u prefer in a 20 team dynasty?

Mauricio Rubio: #BaezChat I said earlier in the chat that I prefer Machado to Baez and this holds true here. I love Javier, but this is a trade I think you have to make.

winston (chicago): When picking your nose in the car, do u prefer trying to throw it out the window, or wiping it under the seat?

Mauricio Rubio: Under the seat. Don't litter.

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To correct a previous Rays thought, RJ Anderson says that Bedard or Ramos is taking Moore's rotation spot.

Snark Trumbo (Ihitdingers, USA #baow): Now that the #freeboosie campaign was successful. Who do we free next? #freegeorgespringer #freeicefromhisgirl #freemurphylee

Mauricio Rubio: Definitely #FreeIceFromHisGirl. Gotta know when to cut ties.

Chesty (New Bern NC): With Hamilton on Dl who gets majority of ab.Is Shuck worth picking up on waiver list.

Mauricio Rubio: You know, I can see them starting Shuck out there just as easily as I can see them splitting the DH time between Choo and Moreland and really cutting into Shuck's PA's.

Justinpain (Chicago): Is their anything you see in Solarte that makes him for real or is he just seeing Ps the first time through the league and of course they will adjust. He just seems to have a smooth stroke.

Mauricio Rubio: The adjustments will hurt him, they get everyone. He has bat to ball ability, how much is an open question. I think he can be a starter in deep leagues but as I said previous I'm looking for an upgrade in shallower leagues.

DanDaMan (Sea Cliff): Hey Mauricio, love these fantasy chats. What are your thoughts on Fister given his injury? I also drafted Chapman at a discount due to his injury. Any concerns about him? or do you think he returns to his usual dominant self? Thanks

Mauricio Rubio: Regarding Chapman I think the mental barrier will be the most difficult one to break. I think he's going to be back to dominance but I don't say that with as much confidence as I'd like. Regarding Fister, he's probably not coming back for another month or so and that's pretty concerning to me. Pitchers with an open ended return date are red flags in my book.

mattstupp (NYC): With the rash of TJS throughout baseball being especially pronounced at the moment, are there sensible ways to improve elbow (and shoulder) injury detection for pitchers? Catching the injuries early is quite helpful, right? For example, why don't teams have all their pitchers get MRIs right after the end of the season? Why not again at the All-Star break?

Mauricio Rubio: Thanks for the question, I'm nowhere near qualified enough to answer this, but it was an interesting thought. I don't know if they do or don't mandate MRI's either.

BillyBob (Brazil): In my Fantasy Baseball, 10 team, 8x8 category h2h league, I received an offer that I need your help with. I'd be getting Bautista and Mauer for my Posey and Wacha. I can only put Bautista in RF, but I already have Wil Myers who also only qualifies for RF. Myers is more durable obviously and has a high ceiling. Should I still do it?

Mauricio Rubio: I need to know what the other three categories are but I think I pull trigger on this deal as I think the upside is higher on the Bautista/Mauer side.

9 Years (Craig): What's one thing you learned about Craig in Arizona? About Ben? About yourself?

Mauricio Rubio: I learned that when Craig says he's going to vomit, he's going to vomit. I learned that Ben is a handsome man who was born to wear flannel and khaki shorts and I learned that I look good as a blonde with Gary Busey hair.

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And with that, I have to cut this short. Sorry if I couldn't get to your questions.

Mauricio Rubio: Sorry for the shortened chat session, but thanks to everyone who did send questions my way!