Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Bret Sayre

Chat: Bret Sayre

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Tuesday November 19, 2013 1:00 PM ET chat session with Bret Sayre.

Chat with Bret about fantasy and his contributions to the Top 10s.

Bret Sayre: It's a beautiful fall afternoon, so let's sit inside and talk about baseball, shall we?

Bob (New York): What is Justin Upton's value in a dynasty league? Is gambling on his upside worth 2 top 25 offensive prospects?

Bret Sayre: Absolutely. Upton is still a top-25 overall player in dynasty formats for me.

Dandies3 (Pa): Chances, for this season, that Adam Eaton lives up to potential created in minors as a 30 plus base stealer and .280 to .300 hitter.

Bret Sayre: 30%. I think he's got a very good shot at getting the steals if he gets the playing time, but the average might be a little rich. Think he's more in the .260-.270 range.

Jesse (NY): How good can Addison Russell be? Is he a possible 25 Homer guy at his peak? Despite his high rankings, he seems to never be talked about among elite prospects? Why is that?

Bret Sayre: Russell could be one of the top shortstops in baseball in a couple of years, and he has the power potential to hit 25 bombs. He may not be in Buxton's class, but there's no question he's an elite prospect.

Ben C (Boston): Why aren't you telling people to buy low on Roman Quinn yet?

Bret Sayre: Because he can't hit.

higgsboson (guelph): Thoughts on Alen Hanson? Does he get a shot a 2B 2014, and if so do you see him being an everyday guy?

Bret Sayre: Don't think he sniffs the majors in 2014, but I do see him as an everyday guy--even if it's more of a second-division profile.

Jonah (Redwood): Matt Moore, Ryan Cook, and David Robertson for Gerrit Cole and Craig Kimbrel. Fair trade?

Bret Sayre: It's not unfair, per se. But I'd take the Cole side of that deal every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

baseballjunkie (SF Bay Area): Bret, What do you expect a peak Rendon season to look like?

Bret Sayre: A .300+ average with 25 bombs, just not at second base. I'm still a huge fan of the bat.

Joe (NY): Are you buying Tyson Ross's performance down the stretch? I'd need to use an early round pick on him in dynasty and not sure he's legit.

Bret Sayre: I'm buying it in the sense that I think the Padres will continue to use him in the rotation until he gets hurt. That said, I don't love his chances of repeating this performance or staying healthy for a long period of time.

allangustafson (San Diego ): I traded for speculation that Javier Baez might get 2B playing time in 2014 in a 15 team deep 5 year keeper league. A pipe dream?

Bret Sayre: Not a pipe dream. It could happen in August, just don't count on it.

RotoLando (Cloud City): Which pocket do you keep your wallet in, the front or the back? Why?

Bret Sayre: The back because I'm not an animal.

tr (Here ): Outside the top 10 draftees, has anyone other than JPCrawford improved his stock by a large margin?

Bret Sayre: Since the draft? Absolutely. Hunter Harvey, Bobby Wahl and Devin Williams are a few guys whose prospect stock look significantly better than their draft slot.

TommyC (Illinois): How concerned are you about Jonathan Gray and Eddie Butler pitching in Coors? Both have power stuff, and Butler's change should negate a lot of the platoon advantage, but I'm still worried about any pitcher in that park. Do either look like top-20 fantasy SP given the park they'll pitch in?

Bret Sayre: Mildly concerned. It's going to be a challenge for sure, but both guys are talented enough to overcome it. In reality, it's extremely difficult for a pitcher in Coors (barring another humidor change) to be a top-20 pitcher for fantasy purposes.

Tony (Work): People still keep their wallet in the back pocket? Also, Oscar Taveras, whats his playing time and numbers look like next year? ROY front-runner?

Bret Sayre: That is all dependent on whether Carlos Beltran re-signs with the Cardinals or not. Assuming he does not (and they don't sign another OF), I'd say he gets the call before Memorial Day, hits .280 with 15 homers and finishes in the top-3 for RoY voting. If he gets the call on Opening Day, he's the frontrunner for the award.

Joey Jo-Jo (MT): What's up with your boy, Brian Goodwin?

Bret Sayre: Still love him, it's just going to take some time. Don't give up on him.

Shawnykid23 (CT): Based on all the work you've done with the prospect team (which is tremendous by the way), which positions appear to have an abundance of talent on the way, and which positions not so much?

Bret Sayre: Thanks! It's rough sledding at 2B and C, if you're looking for players who project as high fantasy contributors. On the other hand, SS and 3B feel like they have a lot of high upside pieces.

John (San Francisco): I was surprised to see Bobby Wahl rank so high for the A's. Is that more of a function of Wahl's talent and ceiling, or the A's being nearly bereft of prospects after Addison Russell?

Bret Sayre: Well, he likely wouldn't be so high in most other orgs, but it's also a function of his talent and ceiling. He's a real arm and a guy to closely track in dynasty drafts beyond the first 20 picks or so.

Carlos (El Paso): I'm on the cusp of a juggernaut in a dynasty points league but really need to hit on young SP. Do I have these SP available ranked correctly? A. Bradley, N. Syndergaard, Y. Ventura, A. Meyer, K. Crick, A. Sanchez, L. Giolito, M. Appel, J. Gray, M. Stroman, K. Stewart, Z. Lee? Anything noteworthy to offer on any of the above? Thanks!

Bret Sayre: Move Giolito up to third on that list and Appel to fourth. Then move Stewart ahead of Stroman and that's a pretty reasonable order.

Travs Hound (Arkansas): Do you feel Josmil Pinto has developed enough defensively to handle at least a portion of the Twins everyday catching duties in 2014?

Bret Sayre: Yes. Especially considering they gave Ryan Doumit's corpse 99 games behind the plate over the last two years.

John (Philly): Do you think Marcus Stroman sticks as a starter or does he project more in relief? He looked so nasty in the AFL, easy to get excited about him in the rotation.

Bret Sayre: I'd love to project him as a starter, but the odds are he's still a reliever. But it's definitely easy to get excited about the stuff and I think he's a fantasy contributor in either role.

phin (milwaukee): does sano make his mlb debut in 14?

Bret Sayre: My gut says no, but not because I don't think he'll be ready to get his feet wet.

TommyC (Illinois): I've got a minor league draft for a keeper league coming up, and I know I'll be choosing between Jonathan Gray, Kohl Stewart, Eddie Butler, Garin Cecchini, Clint Frazier, Tyler Glasnow. My team is in a win over the next 2-3 years type mode, which of the 6 do you prefer, or if it is close between a few guys, why? Thanks!

Bret Sayre: Frazier. Love me some Clint Frazier.

RotoLando (Cloud City): Hey Bret. I'm drafting for a deep dynasty league in the late, late rounds. Really specualtive at this point. When going deep, do you like to go with hitters or pitchers?

Bret Sayre: I tend to go with pitchers very late as they have much more fluctuation in performance. You can take shots on very risky arms late and if they breakout, deal them for most established players before they are exposed (or break).

Chopper (Indy): Do you think Maikel Franco will be an impact bat and be able to stick at the hot corner?

Bret Sayre: No and not for all that long. Think he can be a solid fantasy bat, but I don't see impact potential. The Phillies will likely keep him at third as long as possibly because they have Ryan Howard signed until 2341, but I don't think it will be pretty.

Jeremy (OK ): It seems some of the luster has worn off Kevin gausman. Do you think it's unfair due to some of the production of his NL peers? Some scouts were calling him a borderline #1 and suddenly he's questioned. Are expectations getting out of hand for rookies?

Bret Sayre: Of course it's unfair. I don't think he's a #1, but if the guy who owns him in your league thinks that his stock is down because he wasn't Michael Wacha, kindly extend him an offer.

Ned (Springfield): How would you rank Bryant, Appel and Frazier for Dynasty formats?

Bret Sayre: Bryant, Frazier, Appel.

Matt (Providence): Odor or sardines in a dynasty

Bret Sayre: Odor.

TJ (Queen City): Where would you place Robert Stephenson on Carlos from El Paso's list?

Bret Sayre: Right behind Appel. He's another very exciting arm.

AnthopoJays (Houston TX): Just took over an abysmal squad in a 16-team, 7x7 format with 25 man rosters. I have stripped it down and the top of my depth chart around the infield reads Matt Adams, Kolten Wong, Xander Bogaerts, and Lonnie Chisenhall. I'm not extremely confident, as of today, that anyone besides Bogaerts will get everyday reps in 2014. So the question becomes at what position(s) I should grab filler for this season. Who would you confidently run out there as starters? I'm considering one option of allowing Bogaerts to man third and pick up a Jed Lowrie/Brad Miller type to fill the gap up the middle. Any thoughts or insight as to how would you approach it?

Bret Sayre: It all depends on your waiver wire. I'd try to grab a 2B and a 3B and leave Bogaerts at short, but if Brad Miller (who I like) is the best option, by all means slide him over. I'd confidently play Adams and Bogaerts as starters in a 16-team league (and potentially Wong as well if Freese is traded)

david1 (indiana): if alex meyer was moved to the pen, would he break camp with the big club?

Bret Sayre: On merit alone, yes. He'd likely be the second or third best reliever in their pen right now.

jollyRoger (Pitt): Do you think Reese McGuire will ever hit enough to be more than a 2nd catcher in a 2 catcher league? Is there top 10 offensive potential for catchers in the bat?

Bret Sayre: I don't like McGuire's chances of becoming a top-10 fantasy catcher, but his path to maximizing his value is the Russell Martin early-career path: steal bases.

Daff (Sheffield, England): Hi Brett, Congrats on all the great fantasy content you're putting in place, looking forward to digesting ALL of it! I have Mauer in a dynasty league. Obviously I have him at C for the next 12 months, but beyond that I don't like the idea of my 1B being good for 12-16 HRs a year. What do you think is a reasonable return for him before this season, and after this season? Cheers, Daff

Bret Sayre: Thanks, Daff! I think with the increased playing time and less wear and tear on his body, Mauer can be a top-10 first baseman going forward. Matt Carpenter was the sixth most valuable first baseman this year and he only hit 11 homers. Don't rush to trade him unless you get a strong offer.

jeff (KC ): How would you rank these pitchers from the draft on likelihood of hitting projection, ChiChi,Ball, or Manaea?

Bret Sayre: That's a good order. Though Manaea does have the most upside of those three--he just has the health issues to work out.

Shawnykid23 (CT): Was Jean Segura's year last year a career year, or should we expect that to be about the norm?

Bret Sayre: I think it's much closer to the norm than a career year. I'm a big fan.

comish4lif (Alexandria, VA): What's the story on the Rox' David Dahl. Are the hamstring issues going to continue to be an issue? Or just a bump in the road?

Bret Sayre: I'm more concerned about his makeup issues than his hamstring, but I think 2013 will look like a bump in the road in the end.

Shawn (Office): As a Josh Johnson owner, hoping for a bounce-back year, where should I want him to sign? Pitt or SD right?

Bret Sayre: Absolutely. Any National League pitchers' park will do. Think he bounces back in a big way.

Danny Duffy (KC): How do you feel about me in 10 team, AL only keeper leagues? Just an enigma or serious potential? My arsenal is crazy when it's on, and other days I can't get out of an inning.

Bret Sayre: The inconsistencies will likely leave fantasy owners wanting more, but Duffy has serious potential has a top-25 starter in AL-only formats.

doog7642 (Blaine, MN): Hail, Dynasty Guru! Thanks for continued advice that contributed to my first championship in a decade. Points league where steals and runs are each worth two: move Billy Hamilton for Carlos Martinez? I own Choo, but I don't have a CF for 2015 and beyond.

Bret Sayre: Thanks! That's tough to answer without knowing the other point totals, but in general, Hamilton is devalued in those types of leagues. I'd probably try to get a little more than Martinez in return though, especially given that he's likely to be in the pen next year.

tjco1006 (Ky): Have 1 roster spot available for either AlbertoTirado or Alex Reyes. Leaning Reyes. Right call?

Bret Sayre: Yep, that would be my call as well.

Erubiel (Caracas): Projections for Jose Abreu and Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez this year?

Bret Sayre: Give me a .265 average and 27 bombs for Abreu and a 4.00 ERA and 160 strikeouts for Gonzalez (assuming full seasons for both).

The Dude (Cubicle): Ignoring risk and proximity to majors, does Lucas Giolito have the highest ceiling of any minor league pitcher? If not him, who would it be?

Bret Sayre: Yes. No one else can touch his upside.

Colin Moran (Minors): I saw you ranked me 5th back in June in your Top 40 Dynasty League Prospects...Have been moved down since then?

Bret Sayre: Yes, but not because of anything you've done. Like any other draft class, other guys have taken a step forward. Don't worry, you're still in the top-10.

phin (internetz): what is the value of trevor bauer in dynasty? is he worth holding onto over a guy like castellanos or revere?

Bret Sayre: It's very low right now. Personally, I'd rather have both hitters over him, especially in a roto league. I can see the argument to keep Bauer over Revere in a H2H or points league, but that's about it.

Jake (Toledo): Who do you think is the 3rd best hitter from the draft? (I'm guessing you have Bryant and Frazier 1,2)

Bret Sayre: Right now, it's a close race between Tim Anderson, J.P. Crawford and Dominic Smith.

Shawn (Office): Is Nick Franklin worth holding onto as depth (or trade bait) in a 10-team dynasty? 2B and SS can get #dark quick

Bret Sayre: It can get very dark, but I don't love Franklin in that shallow of a league. All depends on what your other options are though.

Felipe (Mexico): Please rank: Avisail Garcia, Oswaldo Arcia, Marcell Ozuna?

Bret Sayre: Arcia, gap, Garcia, Ozuna.

ZZB (Californ-i-a): thoughts on Starlin Castro having a rebound year? How's his outlook in dynasty formats?

Bret Sayre: I think he does bounce back and hits around .300 in 2014. We may have to wait a little bit longer for the power to come in though.

Roy Munson (1978 Iowa state bowling champ): More less LABR settings, thinking of trading one year of $7 Matt Moore and one year of Alex Cobb at $2, for three years of $7 Gregory Polanco. Worth it?

Bret Sayre: I'd keep the two starters.

Jon (St. Louis): New dynasty league draft...roughly where do you think it's appropriate to start taking prospects who have yet to make their MLB debut like Taveras, Bradley, Buxton and Sano?

Bret Sayre: Taveras, Buxton and Sano should all be taken in the top-100. Bradley soon thereafter.

TommyC (Illinois): I have a dynasty league infield of Starlin, Lawrie, Gyorko, and Dunn, with Baez and Eddie Rosario waiting in the wings. What types of 1B would you target with the minor leaguers in a trade? Could I get a Freeman/Craig/Edwin Encarnacion type? Or do my existing infielders come with a high enough risk (Castro and Lawrie specifically) that I need to hold onto Baez and Rosario?

Bret Sayre: If you can get a good deal on one of those guys, go for it. But I wouldn't be so quick to deal away your depth with that infield.

Hurdler (Pittsburgh): How much disdain does Jason Parks have toward your work?

Bret Sayre: Jason's been nothing but enormously respectful of my work (and the work of the rest of the fantasy staff). He's one of my favorite people to work with.

Andre (LA): I've read you at thedynastyguru.com for awhile and really enjoy your fantasy take on the top ten lists at BP. In that vein, would you consider doing a podcast focusing on the fantasy outlooks of minor leaguers? This is always the weakest part of my dynasty teams and I struggle to bridge the gap from the Fringe Average content to fantasy. It's great information but I'd really appreciate the fantasy spin. Towers of Power has proven invaluable but deservedly focuses on the MLB level. Hoping you come up with something, exciting about what you've brought/will bring to BP. Thanks!

Bret Sayre: Thanks, Andre! That is something I've given serious consideration to, so don't be surprised if it comes to fruition in the near future.

Jesse (NY): Can Meyer make it into the twins rotation this year? He seems to routinely be doubted but guys can't seem to do much other that ground out, long levers be damned.

Bret Sayre: Yes, I think he starts at least 5 or 6 games for the Twins this year.

baseballjunkie (SF Bay Area): Hi Bret, Who should I choose for my last dynasty league keeper spot, Shark, Gausman or Walker?

Bret Sayre: I'd take Walker.

captnamerca (Sinkhole City, FL): Can Greg Bird be a decent fantasy option at 1B? Will he be an everyday player, or will he constantly be pushed aside by The Yankees newest FA "slugger"?

Bret Sayre: He can be, but has got a long way to go. And he'll have even more of an uphill battle in the Yankee organization given their abilities go get free agents.

The reaper (Death Valley): Hey Bret Thanks for the chat since u are a prospect guy in fantasy baseball what would u rather have hitting or pitching? Thx again Currently rocking out to blue oyster cult "don't fear the reaper" :)

Bret Sayre: Always prefer hitting prospects on the high-end as they are much more predictable and pitching prospects on the low-end as they can have large swings in value.

padremurph (San Diego): What kind of year do you think Rymer Liriano will have after TJ? Think he gets a Sep call up?

Bret Sayre: I think he has a good year, but the Padres don't rush him. With a decent year, I do expect him to get a call up since he's already on the 40-man.

sportsguy21792 (Madison, WI): A Hedges has a major league caliber glove/arm...will he hit enough to be a keeper player at a weak position? will he spend all of 2014 in the minors.

Bret Sayre: That's selling him short. His glove/arm isn't just major league caliber, it's potentially elite. But he's not going to be someone you want to have as your starting fantasy catcher, outsider of deeper leagues.

Jerry (San Diego): Who would you say are your top 5 dynasty prospects from the 2013 MLB draft?

Bret Sayre: Bryant, Frazier, Appel, Gray, Stewart.

The Dude (Cubicle): I get that Buxton is a 5-tool generational talent. Is he as valuable from a fantasy perspective? Is he a future 1-1 player or is he more of a rich man's BJ Upton (meant as a compliment)

Bret Sayre: Yes. He's a potential 1-1 player.

Fredbird (STL): Stephen Piscotty - enough power upside to handle corner OF or 4th OF with plus hit tool?

Bret Sayre: I'm not high on Piscotty, especially given the depth of the Cardinals' organization. I don't think he develops the power to crack that starting outfield.

TommyC (Illinois): What do you see from Brett Lawrie in the future? Is he a top-10 2B/3B option going forward?

Bret Sayre: If the Jays continue to play him at 2B, I like him to be a top-10 option at the position going forward. If he moves back to 3B long term, he's on the outside looking in.

phin (interwebz): apparently Eddie Rosario is being suspended 50 games according to some guy on twitter. FYI

Bret Sayre: That's not some guy on twitter, that's LaVelle Neal. If he's reporting it, it's got legs.

Shawn (Office): Giancarlo Stanton is wearing a ______ uniform next year? David Price is wearing a _____ uniform next year?

Bret Sayre: Marlins and Rangers. Pure speculation is fun.

Tony (Work): What's Profar's fantasy contribution next season and in the coming years? At what position (2B or SS)? And think he'll be a top 5 player at that position? Bonus points: Which team?

Bret Sayre: I think Profar is a top-5 second baseman for the Texas Rangers starting in 2015.

Dave (Mass): Gyorko or Arica long term dynasty

Bret Sayre: Gyorko, but just for eligibility reasons.

Shawnykid23 (CT): Does the knee injury change your long-term outlook on Machado at all?

Bret Sayre: Not one bit. He's a superstar.

Alex (Anaheim): In what round are you taking Choo in a 12-team mixed redraft league?

Bret Sayre: Off the top of my head, the fourth round seems about right.

Aaron Hicks (Minnesota): Can you see me breaking out next season?

Bret Sayre: I'd love to say yes, but I don't think it happens in 2014. Still like the potential long-term though.

RotoLando (Cloud City): When rebuilding a dynasty team from the ground up, do you try to grow your own 1B, or pick up a player on the wire?

Bret Sayre: There's always a veteran at 1B you can trade for. Don't worry about growing your own, as first-base prospects are a risky proposition.

JJ (Ann Arbor): Dynasty: Buxton + Carlos Martinez + Taillon + a 1st rounder (next year) OR Taveras + Shelby + Taijuan?

Bret Sayre: Unless it's a high first rounder, give me the Taveras side.

comish4lif (Alexandria, VA): Austin Hedges - viable in a 12 teams NL only?

Bret Sayre: That type of format, yes. He does have some pop.

Biscotty (SJ): if you had Buxton in a dynasty league and were offered Shelby Miller and Jose Bautista, what would your response look like?

Bret Sayre: If I was a contending team, that answer would probably look like Y-E-S. It's tough to trade Buxton, but even he has his price.

Shawn (Office): If Buxton, Baez, and Taveras reach their ceiling, coupled with Trout, Harper, Machado, etc. already in the majors, are we looking at one of the most talent-rich eras in baseball history?

Bret Sayre: Well sure, but plenty of other eras have had huge-upside minor leaguers that never reached their ceiling. This might be one of the ages even if those three flop.

RotoLando (Cloud City): As of right now, Miguel Sano has SS eligiblilty. Theoretically, you could put him at SS and leave him there indefinitely. I think the downside is you can't pick up any free agents, but, man, a 35+ HR guy at SS is tempting.

Bret Sayre: It's really tempting, but having a dead spot for an entire season is something you really have to be in a particular phase of rebuilding to do.

Bryant (Dearborn, MI): What type of fantasy impact can Chris Rusin have next year? What type of career do you see him having? The Cubs seem to like him...can he pitch in a rotation over time?

Bret Sayre: Very little. It's more of a middle relief profile for me long-term for me.

Shawnykid23 (CT): Have you read Dollar Sign on the Muscle yet?

Bret Sayre: Yes, and it's wonderful. I highly, highly recommend it to anyone who enjoys reading about baseball.

Joe (Vegas Baby): I don't feel great about Anthony Rizzo as my long-term solution at 1b in dynasty points...make me feel better. Please?

Bret Sayre: Look around at the first base landscape, it could be a lot worse. I still like Rizzo long-term, but just not as a fantasy star.

baseballjunkie (SF Bay Area): Bret, First the Democrats and Republicans, then BART workers and management, and now even MLB and Japanese League cannot get their act together. Do you think we will see Mas Tanaka play in America in 2014?

Bret Sayre: Man, I hope so. In the end, though, I think the answer is no.

TommyC (Illinois): Thank you for all of your answers today!

Bret Sayre: Thank you for all your questions today!

Bret Sayre: You guys brought a ton of great questions today and we'll do this again soon. We have a lot of fun things planned for this off-season at Baseball Prospectus from a fantasy perspective (both announced and unannounced), and I very much look forward to sharing it with you all. Enjoy the rest of your afternoon!