Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Matthew Kory

Chat: Matthew Kory

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Wednesday October 30, 2013 12:00 PM ET chat session with Matthew Kory.

Join Matt for a no-invitation-only chat about the World Series, the winter, and whatever else you ask him.

Matthew Kory: Hello again! I felt terrible last week when I was late to my chat and I feel terrible this week because I'm sick. I prefer one of those to the other but I won't say which! Game 6 of the World Series is tonight! Game 7 tomorrow if necessary. I've got tea and time. Let's chat!

Dave (Boulder): What is the story with Royals SP John Lamb - anything left there or is he now the other side of the TJ surgery story?

Matthew Kory: Hard to say. His results haven't been impressive and that includes his time in the Arizona Fall League. TJ surgery as much as it's old hat to fans and analysts, isn't a sure thing. That's a big part of the reason it's so sad to lose guys like Matt Harvey and Stephen Strasburg to TJS. We lose a year (or more) of their career, yes, and that's awful for all involved, but what happens when they step back on a mound? We don't know. We can guess, and often that guess is correct, but sometimes it's wrong. Hopefully that's not the case with Lamb. We'll see.

vampires (michigan): Matthew, Have Uehara,Balfour, and Cook,is there chance all three could close next year?

Matthew Kory: Absolutely. There's a chance you could close next year. Or me. Well, not me. But you! Just look at who was closing a few seasons ago. Or, heck, I'll tell you. In 2010, the top five in saves were:

1. Brian Wilson
2. Heath Bell
3. Rafael Soriano
4. Joakim Soria
5. Matt Capps

I'm sure all those guys will get shots to close and I'm sure some of them will falter (or get injured) because some of them always falter (or get injured) and will get replaced.

Dan Rozenson (Washington, DC): OK, Matt. You've had time to reflect. You've admitted the call of obstruction in game three was correct. Now will you admit it's not that stupid of a rule?

Matthew Kory: It's not a stupid rule, and yes, as Dan is pointing out, I flipped (to put it nicely) when obstruction was called on Will Middlebrooks in Game 3. I should probably have shut up. Happens sometimes. I was wrong, the umpires called it correctly. That said, I still think it was unfair to Middlebrooks who was still, if not by the letter of the rule, in actuality in the act of fielding the ball. When you dive on the ground trying to field a ball and a split second later a guy trips over you, that's your fault? By the rule as written now, yes, it's your fault. I'm not so sure that's how it should be.

But that all said, that's how it is and the umpires got it right.

Cal Guy (Cali): Hi Matt, What kind of production can we expect from Rendon in 2014, and do you expect him to be the starting 2B?

Matthew Kory: I like Rendon a lot. As a second baseman I think his bat should be impressive over a full season. The only issue is health, as he's had some problems staying healthy in the past. If he can stay on the field though, you have to be excited about his contributions next season.

bvytytao (1): 1

Matthew Kory: I've been staring at this question for a half hour now and I don't know how to answer it. 2 is too obvious. I could say 0 and turn it into a binary code joke, but how funny are binary code jokes? I mean, really not that funny, if we're to be completely honest about it. I could go A, but that' not a joke about anything. Maybe it's just contrarian.

Any thoughts, send them to

Nobody Cares
c/o Matt Kory
1 1st Street, Apartment 1
Onesville, Oregon, 971111111

Sam (Bay): You watch David Ortiz more than most of us, so tell us: Is he really more likely to get a hit in his next at-bat than he usually is, like does he actually look like a different hitter right now? Or is this just one of those hot streaks that happens when you flip enough (big strong patient) coins?

Matthew Kory: Sam, I don't know. Here's what I do know.

I know:

Ortiz has been hitting everything. Like even the outs are hit hard.

Not all his hits are going over the fence. Some of the hits are even ground balls, which could easily be at a fielder and thus be an out. So there's probably some element of luck involved here

Studies by people 300 times smarter than I have shown that there isn't any conclusive relationship between a hitter who has, say ten straight hits, and his likelihood of getting an eleventh in his next at-bat.

David Ortiz, generally speaking, is amazing.

Ortiz talked a bit about this after Game Five. He said he's amazing. He also said his swing is a bit shorter now (a good thing) and that's helping him stay on pitches that he might normally roll over. So good mechanics. Are good mechanics likely to carry into his next at-bat just because he had them in his previous at-bat? Probably not. We have a pretty good idea of who Ortiz is as a hitter as he's been in the league a long time.

I'll say these two things: I don't think hot streaks are predictive. I wouldn't want to pitch to Ortiz right now.

dianagram (VORGville): bvytytao is obviously calling for a fastball.

Matthew Kory: That's a possibility!

Okay! Here it comes! 74 mph of searing heat! Get ready!

Ryan Dempster (In a dungeon with Shelby Miller): I struck out 13 batters per nine in April.

Matthew Kory: That was fun, too!

Tell Shelby we all say hi.

jlarsen (Chicago): Care to explain how on earth JJ Hardy won the Gold Glove over Yunel Escobar. Did personality issues serve as part of the award criteria?

Matthew Kory: Gold Glove awards. Man. That's a thing that doesn't measure what it is supposed to measure, huh? Was Escobar really the best shortstop in the American League? It's pretty certain Hardy wasn't. I'm guessing though that Hardy hit well last season and, well, you just can't beat logic like that so no need to go further.

I'd like to see a twitter meme created where people give gold glove awards to others when they do something badly, or in Rafael Palmeiro's case, not at all.

William (Los Angeles): If there is a game 7, how many pitches will Jon Lester throw in it? How many will John Lackey throw it in? How many will Koji Uehara throw in it?

Matthew Kory: Lackey won't be back for a Game 7. If he throws a lot of pitches and Boston loses he won't be back, and if he gets crushed so much so that he doesn't throw many pitches, the team won't want him back even if he can come back. Wouldn't shock me if Lester threw an inning, but almost certainly not more than that. Koji may throw six.

Broseph (Broronto): Hey bro, what do you think Jake Peavy will do if he has to start game 7? And, anticipating your typical pessimistic self-loathing Red Sox Fan answer, well then what should the Red Sox do instead?

Matthew Kory: They traded for him for a reason, and yes, he has a 7.11 ERA in the postseason, but I don't think he's really that bad a pitcher. It wouldn't shock me if he went five innings and gave up two runs.

Also wouldn't shock me if the team decided to start Felix Doubront instead.

jlarsen (Chicago): Think that it's too "Rays-esque" if they kicked the tires on Peter Bourjos? Would love to see Jennings back at LF(Plus D there, looking at his DRS totals from '10-'12), Bourjos in CF & Myers in RF.

Matthew Kory: Depends on how much the Angels want for him. He'd fit in well in Tampa, but he's a pretty good player so he'd actually fit in well in a lot of places. Having Bourjos (whose name I always want to spell Bourjous for symmetry's sake) in center would help a lot, especially with Myers in right.

William (Los Angeles): Who do you think will win more World Series in the next 10 years, starting today: Your Red Sox or my Dodgers?

Matthew Kory: If I had to pick just one of those teams, I'd pick Boston because of their minor league system and their front office. I think both are leaps and bounds better than LA's. Of course LA has shown that the'll out-spend the heck out of any other team, so there is that, but we've seen lots of teams spend tons of money and not do well, so I'm not sure that's as much of a guarantee as FO and Ml system.

That said, if I could pick another team, I probably would. The Cardinals would be leading this race if they were allowed entrance.

Ziggy (Marley): Francisco Lindor gets the call by ____ and produces as a top ____ SS

Matthew Kory: Could be next year, by the end of the season. That said, Cleveland still has Asdrubal Cabrera under contract next season ($10 million). They could trade him, but Lindor isn't ready now, so they'd need a stop-gap at shortstop and by definition stop-gaps aren't as good as non-stop-gaps so the team would likely be taking a hit there. I'd guess they'll hold on to Cabrera and if they're not in contention by the deadline, they'll deal him and in a perfect world, Lindor would be knocking down the door to the majors in Triple-A at that point and they could just call him up.

But I'll say he gets a September call up and rides the bench mostly.

nictaclacta (Glendale): Chrystal ball dynasty question: On the thermometer scale, if Mark Reynolds were 32 degrees and Mike Schmidt were 212 degrees, what temperature will Xander Bogaerts and Kris Bryant be? Thank you.

Matthew Kory: Bryant I'm less clear on. He hit really well in a very small sample size in Low and High-A, but we need to see more to know what he is. Or at least I do. He's a pretty promising player though. Bogaerts is the real deal. He'll start at short for Boston next season.

That said, comparing either to Schmidt, maybe the greatest ever at his position, is a tough thing to do. I'm very confident Bogaerts will be better than Mark Reynolds. So I'll say Xander is 100 degrees and Bryant is 35, but with a warm front on the way.

jlarsen (Chicago): Parks & Rec had a nice little hat-tip to BP with the Law Offices of Babip, Vorp, Pecota & Eckstein. How would you rank each lawyer & who would be your choice to represent you?

Matthew Kory: Having seen Eckstein talk, I think you'd have to go with him, right? After that I'd go with Pecota (presumably Bill, also a real person), then Vorp, then Babip who is relatively new to the firm and still learning where the coffee machine is.

whjohnson37 (Houston): Who has a better shot at a sustainable run, the Cubs, Twins, or Astros?

Matthew Kory: The Cubs. I love their front office (the Astros front office is fantastic, too) but I think Chicago's buying power and revenue generation, at peak, greater than that of the Astros, who are also in a tougher division and league.

jlarsen (Chicago): Is this World Series "fixed"? Not going all conspiracy theorist, but Walk-off via obstruction, walk-off on pick-off that noone saw on FOX(they were panning to a cute Cardinal fan), Ortiz being nearly unstoppable, Jonny Gomes delivering knockout blow in game he only started due to late-scratch, Wacha-Martinez-Rosenthal showing off Cardinals' insane scouting, "in the neighborhood" calls, defensive misplays abound, "clutch"-ness and how noone on FOX seems to know the situation's statistical definition & #shutdowninning ....seems like a national writers dream with all these narratives at their disposal

Matthew Kory: It's been a crazy and exciting World Series, for sure. A lot to write about and the guys here at BP have been, if I may say so, crushing it.

Matthew Kory: And with that, I'm off to sweat in a corner until the game starts. Happy post-season to you all, and thanks for chatting with me here at Baseball Prospectus!