Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Paul Sporer

Chat: Paul Sporer

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Thursday August 22, 2013 1:00 PM ET chat session with Paul Sporer.

Sometimes fantasy is all you need.

Paul Sporer: Hi! We are going to chat. It will be great.

Why Wiffs Spring (TX): If possible, please explain George Springers approach at the plate, and the reason he K's so much. Is it due to an aggressive approach, the fact he likes to see a lot of pitches and runs deep counts, or his pitch recognition is poor, his swing is long...etc... I keep hearing that scouts are concerned with the K's but he walks alot and clearly has legit power as he has more HRs than doubles, and 50% of his hits are going to XB. These are usually strong indicators of raw power albeit just based on stats. If you can help me understand why he isnt "rated" as highly as it seems he should be coming off this season. Is it his age to level? Because he has never really failed and his numbers are consistent through 3 levels. I just dont get it. Thank you for your time

Paul Sporer: I haven't seen him enough to make those assessments re: the Ks. We haven't seen his ratings coming off of this season so I don't think we know how he'll be rated, but I suspect it will be highly.

Cal Guy (Cal): Please rank these SS/3B for their careers, Machado, Bogaerts, and Correa.

Paul Sporer: You just did.

Bob (Milwaukee): Long term prognosis for Junior Lake & Khris Davis ?

Paul Sporer: Lake for me.

icarus (Rome): Who is a better keeper, Gyorko or Rendon?

Paul Sporer: Rendon, health permitting.

Ernie (Houston): David Holmberg or Keyvius Sampson for you ?

Paul Sporer: Holmberg.

Shawnykid23 (CT): Does Bruce Rondon begin next year as Tigers closer?

Paul Sporer: It went through all 200 times. I'll give it a maybe. It'd depend regardless, but it REALLY depends how their season ends with this team.

MKPJ (Chicago): What should/can the Cubs do to fix their S. Castro problem and their need for a frontline SP? Will Castro bring back the SP? Should they leave Castro alone, hoping for bounce back and trade Javier Baez instead-whom I would assume would net them a top flight SP? Thanks

Paul Sporer: He's 23, they should probably chill. They'd be selling low right now, so I doubt he'd bring back a frontline SP. Shouldn't trade Baez, either. They're building very nicely, IMO.

BStephen (The W ): A. Simmons, J Segura or Profar ? Who You Got?

Paul Sporer: Probably reverse order in fantasy. I love Simmons, but I'm not sure he has the offensive ceiling of the other two.

Donald Loria (Milwaukee): Don't know if u do "fantasy" stuff: how do u value top SP relative to hitters?? In a dynasty, 20 team league w/lots of depth. Guys are chasing my Yu and Max. I'm really deep @ SP & could afford to loose 1. What hitter "type" should I seek in return. I've been offered Buxton, but not sure the risk of a prospect is worth it. What say you??

Paul Sporer: Well I am the longest tenured fantasy writer at the site. :) You should seek only the best hitters for either of them and I'd focus on someone already performing and south of 28 or so years old.

Cal Guy (Cal): Please rank the following for the next 5 years, Cole, Walker, Bradley and Gausman. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: That's how I'd rank 'em. I'm a huge Cole fan.

Chris (Brewtown): Is Matt Carpenter really this Good? Is Mike Olt really this Bad ?

Paul Sporer: For the most part, yes. No.

Mike (Detroit): I'm in a daily league and I need two pitching starts among these options, the fantasy week lasts until 9/1: Hamels vs Mets Beachy @STL Hamels vs @NYM Thanks.

Paul Sporer: Hamels

bobbykester (DC): I'm in a close race an AL-Only...Kevin Pillar is 1 for 22 (w/ 2 BBs)...I willing to stick it out and play the guy, if you give me the go-ahead...

Paul Sporer: I'm sure there is someone better, but you can give him a bit longer before really deciding.

faz (Mulwuakee, wi): Where would u value Braun Next year? Is he more likely to be over or underrated??

Paul Sporer: I think fairly so in a lot of leagues, 2nd-3rd round.

Alex (Anaheim): I have Colon on my DL. Will he contribute much the rest of the way?

Paul Sporer: Tough to say. If he gets healthy in time, I think he'll be fine for a few starts.

tsweber (Reno, NV): Micah Johnson seems to get no love, despite his 80+ SB and .300+BA since promotion to high-A. Can he be an impact player in the show?

Paul Sporer: Long way from that. A lot of the good work came at A-ball as 22.

MKPJ (Chicago): Follow up to my Starlin/Baez question. Where in the hell do the Cubs get a frontline SP that most seem to agree they will need in a year or two? Thanks for the chat

Paul Sporer: Draft

Brady Childs (Aunt's house in Louisiana): Delmon Young. WHY???????????

Paul Sporer: Why not? TB will deploy him properly (v. LHP) and he'll prob be fine.

Hertz (Miami, fl.): Explain hitting the ball with a flat bat ( swing). Why it's better. What's the most important component in being a successful hitter , mentally and physically?

Paul Sporer: This is above my pay grade!

tsweber (reno, nv): Would like your take on Rougned Odor, youngest kid in AA, and getting it done. Is he top 50? Prado a good comp?

Paul Sporer: He's been very impressive. Not sure if he'll make the top 50. He's got a lot more speed than Prado.

Extsasis (Atlantis): What's up with Kinsler, is it Kinsler-good, Kinsler-bad year, or is he over the hill and done as a keeper?

Paul Sporer: I'm rarely looking to keep 32 year olds regardless, but I don't think he's one right now. He'll be productive for another few years, but not *special*.

Dr Mike (Wisconsin ): Please rank by stuff, floor, ceiling, however: Taillon, Martinez, Gausmann, Giolito, Rosenthal. If u could choose only 1 for ur favorite squad, it would be...?

Paul Sporer: Taillon or Gausman would be my top guys. Love Rosy if he actually starts, but not sure he will so I'm basically not considering him with this crew.

Faz (Milwaukee, Wi): If u owned Buxton in a dynasty league (no limit, no inflation), what types of offer would it take to pry him away from you?? What's his most likely outcome (I've seen the ceiling predictions plenty)?

Paul Sporer: If I was contending, I'd get the piece(s) to solidify my team for the stretch. Otherwise, I'd probably looking for studly guys in the MLB. Parlay the current hype on BB for current MLB production.

Brady Childs (Aunt's house in Louisiana): Who are some pitchers that you are looking forward to seeing come up in September?

Paul Sporer: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21585

Telepass (Amsterdam): 12 teamer, 11 keepers; is Salazar or Gausman the better keeper? Or keep both, and sacrifice a hitter? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Gausman. Would depend on the hitter, but always try to keep more hitters. Young pitchers are such a crapshoot. Hell, all pitchers are.

Shawnykid23 (CT): Does Bruce Rondon begin next year as Tigers closer?

Paul Sporer:

Shawnykid23 (CT): Does Bruce Rondon begin next year as Tigers closer?

Paul Sporer:

Shawnykid23 (CT): Does Bruce Rondon begin next year as Tigers closer?

Paul Sporer:

Shawnykid23 (Ct): Not sure if this went through or not, my apologies if it did. Do you think Bruce Rondon will begin next year as Tigers closer?

Paul Sporer: :)

Harry (Seattle): Will you give me your best guess for the Mariners starting rotation next year?

Paul Sporer: Felix, Iwakuma, Eraser, crusty vet like Saunders/Harang, Walker

Fongressman (Falls Church, VA): I know it's difficult to compare Hitters and Pitchers but who would you rather have on your team assuming you had the need: A. Bradley or C. Correa? Real life vs fantasy?

Paul Sporer: Always lean hitter in fantasy when it's mostly equal otherwise so Correa for me easily.

Jared (Mass): What's with josh Johnson??? Is he always gonna be so hit and miss?

Paul Sporer: This is the only year he's really *missed*.

John (CT): Who do you think ends up the better fantasy player: Carlos Correa or Addison Russell? Both have impressive bats. Part of the answer to the question I would think is whether both stay at short.

Paul Sporer: I like Correa a little better and think he stays at short. Both discussed here today - http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21598

Jim (Seattle): No Danny Hultzen in the Mariners rotation next year?

Paul Sporer: Doubtful out of spring. He threw 33 IP this year.

Donald Loria (Milwaukee): Any of the following stick out w/advanced metrics or ur pitching eye to stand out in value next year: AJ Burnet, Corbin, Nova, Samardzija??

Paul Sporer: Burnett and Corbin have the results and skills so they'll be priced highly (which is fair). Nova and Shark more likely to be underrated, but Shark still has plenty of fans so I'd bet on Nova as the best bargain.

Ed (Cranford, NJ): For ROS, Charlie Morton or Trevor Cahill?

Paul Sporer: Cahill for me. I'm a big fan, but Morton is solid for sure.

Brian (Mass): 16 team dynasty league. 6x6, uses QS instead of W and K/BB. I had Harvey and Fernandez (along with headliners like Teheran and Minor, and T. Walker, Zimmer, Gausman, Guerrieri in the minors). Needed some offense to make a run at the playoffs this year and to complement Hosmer, Myers, Carpenter, Kipnis. Debated between moving Harvey or Fernandez. Settled on Harvey and moved him for Stanton. Right SP to move? Good return?

Paul Sporer: Not really a *right* answer between those two as QS cuts gap for Harvey so either is just fine. I'm plenty happy with the return. Surprised you couldn't get a little higher given Harvey's season, but I'm a gigantic Stanton fan so I'm 100% cool with it. Just saying he hasn't been raking much of late so I might've tried even a step higher.

Paul Sporer: duplicated

gerom1cl (Illinois): Sano and Springer are available in my 12 tm keeper points league. Do you think they are valuable enough to be worth 15th round picks next year?

Paul Sporer: No. Maaaaaaaaaaybe Springer, but that'd be an overpay.

Brian (Mass): Needed to pick up an ace caliber SP and some saves to make a run at the playoffs in a H2H dynasty league. Traded my Yelich and Taijuan Walker for David Price, Perkins and Gregg. How long do you think Price has before a decline might begin?

Paul Sporer: That's a perfect win-now trade. No reason to expect anything but quality work from Price into his 30s. He's tremendous. Pitching is remarkably volatile, though. If you win your title, maybe trade Price for a hitter. Always better investments long-term.

bobbykester (DC): Any of these AL-Only streamers for Saturday interest you? Sabathia at TB(Archer); E Ramirez H LAA(Vargas); Kazmir H Min(?); Peacock H Tor (vs a callup)

Paul Sporer: Probably going Kaz.

Nick (Southern California): Got to see Danny Salazar pitch in person on Tuesday, and I'm curious to hear your thoughts on him. TJ surgery has caused him to be pulled early, but he's looked electric at times and opposing hitters seem to get easily fooled by the slower stuff due to the speed disparity. What do you expect from him long term?

Paul Sporer: I've been impressed. Tons of swing-and-miss stuff, looks completely legit. I've been most impressed with the command.

Dave (Iowa): Is Hyun-Jin Ryu actually as good as his sub-3.00 ERA suggests? His K% plummeted in May & June, and I expected massive regression, but he's bumped it back up lately and continues to prevent runs.

Paul Sporer: He's probably more of a low-to-mid 3s guy if I had to project going fwd, but he's definitely a quality pitcher. Can miss bats, but also keeps the ball on the ground very well.

Paul Sporer: Fell a little ill after long (maybe those leftovers weren't still good) so I had to cut short. Please send any correspondence to me @Sporer on twitter if you still want something answered.