Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Paul Sporer

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Chat: Paul Sporer

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday July 19, 2013 1:00 PM ET chat session with Paul Sporer.

Paul gets the season's second half started.

Paul Sporer: And we're off...

Sicnarf (Mahoning Valley): Don't I have the best name ever?

Paul Sporer: It's pretty darn close.

dan weaver (colorado): Can Erlin be more than a 3/4 without a 90 mph fastball?

Paul Sporer: No, but I never really saw more than a 3/4. And part of his 3-ness is Petco deflating his numbers.

Jack (San diego): Miguel Alfredo Gonzales is getting a lot of attention. how would he compare with top prospects such as Appel or Gray?

Paul Sporer: Honestly, I don't know enough about him to compare.

willie (Los angeles): I have a minor league draft today in my NL keeper league and am interested in opinions on Rosell Herrera

Paul Sporer: He's been amazing in his repeated of A-ball Asheville, but I'd be full of it if I pretended to know anything of substance beyond that.

Joey (Erie): What player do you think I should pickup in my fantasy league that is severely undervalued right now?

Paul Sporer: I was really high on Cespedes before the HRD, but that got ruined. Definitely still get him if possible, but that HRD raised his profile. I think Miguel Montero and John Danks are going to have big second halves.

Alex (Anaheim): Will the Dodgers continue their hot streak in the second half?

Paul Sporer: If they stay and continue to get healthy, yes.

RotoLando (Cloud City): Is Dan Haren worthy of a buy low offer? I'm near the top of the league and could get him for Chris Archer. The points league counts Wins and QS, so being on Washington helps, but Archer clearly has the edge in upside.

Paul Sporer: I don't think Chris Archer is a buy-low price. I love Haren, but that's full price for the kind of risk you're assuming.

Louis Litt (Pearson, Darby & Associates): Truly, there can be no better taunt to one's opponent after a particularly invigorating victory in fantasy than "You just got LITT up!," correct?

Paul Sporer: Obviously strong! I'm sure Harvey would take Matt Harvey very early so his team name could be Harvey, Spectre, and Associates.

balticwolf (Silver Spring MD): Please rate these pitching prospects for me: Heaney, Biddle, Fried, and Kingham. Which one has the most upside? Which one is the safest?

Paul Sporer: Heaney, Fried, Biddle, Kingham. Fried. Biddle.

ravenight (Boston): Am I crazy to consider dropping Heyward or Butler (both with above-average salaries and no excited trade partners) to pick up Loney (for minimum salary)? Any chance he repeats his current production level over the next 15 months or so?

Paul Sporer: Yes, quite crazy. Butler has basically had Loney's season and the upside is light years higher. Heyward has basically matched HR/RBI in 30 fewer games.

Donald Loria (Miami): In dynasty or keepers with minors, I want to compete this year, or from the start next year. I have guys like Taillon, Walker, Gausman, Zimmer, and Barnes over several of my teams. What starters should I target in heads up/1:1 deals? 2:1 deals?

Paul Sporer: If you're looking to compete now or early next year, start trying to get the best priced stud arms currently doing it in the big leagues, though arms aren't a great investment year over year so I'd rather buy hitters with those prospects.

Chuck (SF): There should be more day baseball games, agree or disagree?

Paul Sporer: I certainly wouldn't complain!

mfenedick (FL): 5X5 12 Team Mixed Keeper League. I am in 2nd, need BA and SB, and have weakness at 3B (Callaspo current starter) and SS (Aybar and Alcides Escobar) Have luxury of Byron Buxton in minors. Have been offered a million trades for him. Offered the following: Longoria (1 more year on contract at low price) Reyes (high priced, won't be kept) Michael Choice FOR Buxton Zach Lee Alcides Escobar Halladay (high salary) Haren (high salary) Am I not getting back enough? What is a fair asking price for Buxton at this point? Two superstars - one superstar and good prospect? Thanks for your chat!!

Paul Sporer: That'd be a pretty nice deal. You get two superstars who help address your primary needs. That's exactly what you want if you trade away your big ticket prospect.

dan weaver ( Colorado): Does Allen Webster have a role in the rotation? Has this been growing pains so far or is he really a high leverage reliever masquerading as a starter?

Paul Sporer: Workman had the spot last time through and handled it brilliantly. Not sure Webster is back in the rotation. And yes, it's been growing pains. Too early to say he can start.

No Laser Show? (Floyd Concert location, the next day): I've been offered Braun and Eric Young Jr. for my Pedroia. It's really about risk I guess, but I'm having a hard time pulling the trigger to get Braun. Kipnis fills 2B for me, so Braun and EYJr. take over in OF for me over Markakis and Moss. Am I over-worrying about the Braun suspension and lack of power risk?

Paul Sporer: Even with the depressed Braun numbers this seems like a solid deal. I don't really see any suspensions being served this year, but that's just a guess of myself and several others who obviously are just as in the dark as everyone else re: this mess. I think you can afford the risk for upside.

captnamerca (Dunedin, FL): What do you do when a trade comes along that blows your whole rebuilding timeline up? I was planning on a 2016 beginning and was offered Kemp for some draft picks, D'Arnaud and Clayton Blackburn. You gotta take that right?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I'd take that. A healthy Kemp will be a stud before 2016. Any time the timeline moves UP is a good thing. I'd *hate* to wait ANOTHER two years after this.

brentdaily (Michigan): Is CC cooked?

Paul Sporer: Cooked is strong. Most pitchers would love a 4.00 ERA to be their "cooked". Skills are still quite solid, just needs to get the ball back in the yard regularly.

nictaclacta (Phoenix): Happy Friday, Paul. Excited about the prospect of your pitching website. Recently added Julio Urias and Luiz Gohara as long-term investments for dynasty league with ten slots for minors. Any possibility of either tracking Felix Hernandez?

Paul Sporer: Waaaaaaaaaay early for that, but the fun of prospects is dreaming big. You have a looooooooong wait ahead of you, but plenty of dreaming!

benrosenberg02 (boston): Is Erasmo Ramirez going to get called back up to pitch against CLE/MIN this week? If so, he's a 'Start', right?

Paul Sporer: It would appear so, yes. And I'd start him. It wasn't confirmed hence the lack of inclusion in the Weekly Planner.

Shawn (Office): Corey Kluber in for a big 2nd half?

Paul Sporer: Love the skills and the stuff, definitely think he can better his ERA the rest of the way.

Frank (Chicago): What are your thoughts on George Springer? What kind of numbers do you envision for him at his peak in MLB?

Paul Sporer: Sky-high potential. Could honestly be a 30-30 guy. Ability for days.

Scarface (Little Havana): Better second half: Edwin Jackson or Homer Bailey?

Paul Sporer: A LOT closer than most think, but Bailey has the better skills and team so I'm still leaning toward him.

The Dude (Work): Segura is too much to give up for Buxton right now right?

Paul Sporer: Definitely.

Laup (Your Future Son): Your naming me Laup???

Paul Sporer: Definitely.

Charlie Runkle (Ankling): Ryan Braun in keepers: buy/sell/hold? If buy/sell, what are you offering/accepting for him?

Paul Sporer: Honestly, it's too wide open to really pinpoint an answer there. Really depends on your league and what you're comfortable taking if you sell. Not much of answer, but just far too difficult to really answer.

stewbies (Rochester, NY): Do you agree with your colleagues it's time to cut bait on Stults, or is he still a good guy to hold for his home starts?

Paul Sporer: Oh I'd definitely hang on for home starts. Maybe not in 10-teamers where I can cut him and likely get him back for the next home start, but otherwise I think there should be a roster spot him in most other formats.

Adam (Rochester, NY): How much do you like these guys in a deep league: Santiago, Quintana, Capuano, Eovaldi,Kluber and Straily?

Paul Sporer: Love Kluber and Eovaldi. Capuano is still underrated. Santiago has quietly been a strikeout machine. Q and Straily aren't special, but certainly don't hurt in a deep league. Quality group of names.

Shawnykid23 (CT): How much would a trade to Texas hurt Garza's value?

Paul Sporer: It'd bump his ERA up a bit, but I think if he avoids the massacres that Dempster suffered, he can best Demp's 5.09 ERA easily.

brentdaily (Michigan): Urias throwing well In Low A at 16. Is relative age something to get excited about (i.e. Felix path to bigs/Upside) or too early to judge?

Paul Sporer: No it's fun to get excited about that, but we're still a loooong way from actualization of anything. Honestly holding his own at 16 would be more fun out of a hitter, but it's still pretty great in this situation.

RotoLando (Cloud City): Just in case you're standing outside on the front porch, waiting for a sign, I am formally inviting you into this chat, Paul. Come share our bread and salt.

Paul Sporer: LOL, thanks.

AJ (Phoenix): 20 team dynasty, h2h 7x7 (xbh, obp, hld, qs). My offense is filthy, and my pitching has a bright future, but is a bit under developed. Strasburg-Moore-Cain-Wheeler... then Taylor Jordan. I have Taillon, Gausman, and Martinez (StL) on my reserve/bench. I also possess the likely 1-1 prospect pick. I have two suitors for the pick. I can hold the pick and grab Buxton next year, or deal it to a team with the 1-3 pick (he's one of the favorites to win the league title this year), or to a bottom 3 team with the 1-20 pick (these teams coincidentally own each others picks). Would you deal the rights to Buxton and maybe one of my high end 'spect arms for the 1-3 and a SP (His SP: Zimm, Grienke, Darvish, Weaver, Scherzer), or deal with the cellar dweller (owns Taveras, S. Miller, W. Myers, T. Walker).

Paul Sporer: I generally prefer to invest in hitting, but if your hitting rakes then it seems you could use pitching NOW so I'd lean toward Darvish or Scherzer.

Karl (Chicago): Is Votto showing signs of aging? And yes this is the kind of nitpicking that top of the first round guys get.

Paul Sporer: I certainly don't see it.

josh (denver): What are your thoughts on Corey Dickerson? All he does is rake! Thanks for the chat.

Paul Sporer: He absolutely does! Not sure how much he'll contribute in the bigs this year, but I think he has a future as a contributor on some level. Not a HUGE prospect, but has the performance and a home ballpark that will incite even more performance.

RotoLando (Cloud City): Callups today: Chris Colabello and Junior Lake. Fliers or bench fodder?

Paul Sporer: Really depends on league, but needs to be pretty deep for either.

Swingers (330 Monroe Ave): Who gets the most starts ROS between Gray, Martinez and Wacha? Thoughts on Zimmermann ROS?

Paul Sporer: In the majors? Martinez & Wacha would have the major edge. Jordan Zimmermann? He's amazing. Only lacks the Ks which keeps him from super-ace status, but everything else is great.

mark (tampa): What to make of Kelly Johnson? He got off to a hot start before having a dreadful June and rebounding somewhat in July. The improved plate discipline numbers are nice, but can he avoid cratering like he did last season?

Paul Sporer: he's got the power & speed to be a fantasy asset. his hot streaks are tremendous, but his cold streaks are drop-worthy. stick it out in roto.

Brent (Laguna Beach): Do the Angels shop Peter Bourjos at the deadline for pitching? I know he's hurt now, but would his injury be a deal-breaker as of now? If not, what could the Angels net in return?

Paul Sporer: They certainly could. How hurt would matter of course, but I believe Jake Peavy was dealt while injured. Bourjos would likely net a mint and rightfully so, but there isn't a ton on the market.

captnamerca (Dunedin, FL): Lorenzo Cain or Shane Victorino for ROS?

Paul Sporer: Kind of a coinflip, but I'll lean Cain.

George (SD): You said that you like John Danks ROS. In my 16 tm h2h league I offered Matt Joyce for John Danks straight up, and am waiting for a response. Is this enough to snag him you think? Is Danks worth my "flier guys" like Josh Rutledge, Carlos Quentin, or Ichiro? Is Joyce more valuable than any of the above mentioned bench guys? Thanks

Paul Sporer: It should be. I'd rather deal Rutledge or Ichiro for him, but that might not be enough.

The Renegade (Atlanta): Dynasty: Kemp & LaRoche (best team in league) for Braun and N. Castellanos (my last place team)?

Paul Sporer: You have to give Braun and Casty as the last place team? No thanks.

ravenight (Boston): Just looking at some folks who seem to be pitching well this year, how would you rank these guys: Masterson, Minor, Colon, D. Holland, Bucholz, Garza, Cobb. Any of them that you'd definitely leave out of a top-30 (among starters) for next year?

Paul Sporer: Minor, Holland, Colon, Garza, and Masterson --- healthy Buch and Cobb get pretty near the top of that list.

hdub (the bleachers): Better OF gamble in a dynasty league: Puello, Bonifacio, Marisnick, Bell? This is a competitive 16 team H2H league and Im looking to make a trade without breaking the bank. Team slots include LF, CF, RF, and 2 additional OF of any kind.

Paul Sporer: I like Puello and Marisnick the best of that group especially since they're doing it at a higher level right now. Big fan of Bell, but the other two are closer.

Shawnykid23 (CT): Whther it's this year or (more likey )next, what should we expect of Roy Halladay? Or are his days of even being rosterable done?

Paul Sporer: I can't close the book on him.

The Dude (Work): Matt Holliday a good Nick Catellanos comp? (The St. Louis Matt Holliday minus the speed)

Paul Sporer: Would LOOOOOVE that as a Tigers fan, but I think it's lofty. Not sure he has *quite* that much power, but as a super-ceiling, it's not crazy.

Pedro Alvarez (APittsaburgha): Its a me! Do you like a me or a Josh Donaldson for the rest of deh season a

Paul Sporer: A Josha Donaldasona, asorrya

Mattorious (Toronto): Can Josh Johnson pitch in the American League? Or will he be a National League bully?

Paul Sporer: His skills are actually the best in three years, but too many homers. His home HR rate of 1.5 is particularly problematic. Stop the homers and he becomes very useful.

Paul Sporer: already answered.

Dr. Mike (Milwaukee): I own a fairly veteran powerhouse in deep dynasty league. My CF (Granderson) has been a let down this season, and his backup (Aoki) has been solid but unspectacular. CF is my biggest need right now, and one team (out of contention) has both A. Jones and McCutchen. He's got great young pillars in Machado, Fernandez, and Teheran, but much of his roster is much older. He is essentially unable to compete, halfway stuck between a rebuild and a playoff run. By the time His young guys are perennial AS, his older guys will be retiring. I offered Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley for one of his CF. I figure it gives him a great young core to build his rotation around (his desire). His counter: CF for Granderson, Darvish, and Bradley. This guy has a history of lowballing everyone, and asking for ridiculous returns for his mediocre players. Any chance I can make this guy see the light, or should I move on?

Paul Sporer: You can try with another counter, but if that's what he thinks is legit, then just move on.

Shawnykid23 (CT): Any updates on the potential pitching site you can discuss?

Paul Sporer: Not yet, but I'm really excited and I do believe this is going to happen. I'll be able to devote a lot of time to it this weekend.

Mike Ross (Harvey's Dog House): Office Dynasty League: Harvey offered me R. Zimmerman, Braun, Cueto, and X for my Miggy and Matt Harvey. I want out of the doghouse, but I want to win this league... any good move here?

Paul Sporer: LOL, if helping with his cases doesn't work, then trade him Harvey. Play to his vanity. Focus on Rachel, though. Just as a general rule.

hdub (the bleachers): How do you feel about Jesus Montero and the odds he pulls a Hosmer and remembers how to hit?

Paul Sporer: Far too early to write him off, that's for sure. This is why prospects are so darn risky.

ravenight (Beantown): What's the feeling on Cueto these days? I saw the mailbag cited "durability issues" as a reason not to hang onto him in a keeper league. I kept him this year at exactly the average salary (per active slot) for the league ($18), and was planning to keep him next year for +$7. Would that be a mistake? Is he a top-30 guy next year, injury risk included?

Paul Sporer: I love Cueto, but I would not do that +$7. I don't like extending pitchers, especially when it sends them >$20.

DetroitDale (Florida (eternal spring training)): if every player on a team produced exactly 0 WAR for the season, how many games would that team win on that season?

Paul Sporer: I think it's supposed to be something like 35-40 wins? I can't remember the exact figure and I actually believe it's different based on the exact WAR you're using.

ChoppertoChipper (E-Town): Yo Yo. What up P Dawg? We're having a bbq at work and I put a bunch of chips on my burger along with mustard, ketchup and relish. Is it okay to put chips on a burger?

Paul Sporer: Sure. Nerd.

Jay (Madison): $5 million and 3 prospects is a lot to give up for a pitcher who you're hoping will make 11 starts in the regular season, don't you think?

Paul Sporer: Seems steep, but maybe they'll also sign him a la Sanchez with the Tigers.

Paul Sporer: Alright everyone, no marathon session today. A tight 55 questions. My 4-day vacation is over and baseball is back!