Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Bret Sayre

Chat: Bret Sayre

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Tuesday April 16, 2013 8:00 PM ET chat session with Bret Sayre.

Bret stops by for an evening fantasy baseball chat.

Bret Sayre: Disclaimer: No players were put on the DL during the making of this chat. But once we get going, I make no promises.

Steve (Vegas): Who will have the best career between C. Martinez (STL), JR Graham (ATL), and A. Webster (BOS)?

Bret Sayre: For me, it's Martinez. He's got the highest ceiling of the group and although there's a chance he's a reliever in the end, I see it working out for him in the rotation. Webster's a relatively close second though.

Alex (Anaheim): Was Homer Bailey's disastrous last outing an aberration?

Bret Sayre: Yes. I still believe and it's going to take more than one start (or a handful of them) to convince me otherwise.

bobbygoode (Santa Monica CA): Do you expect Andrew Bailey to do a better job as interim closer than Mitchell Boggs is doing in St. Louis?

Bret Sayre: Yes, but that's not saying much considering that Boggs doesn't look like the closer any more in STL.

RC (PDX): Is it a good time to sell high on Dexter Fowler? I need pitching and targeting guys like Dan Haren in a 1 for 1 trade. Good idea?

Bret Sayre: Bad idea jeans. Fowler can take that next step forward this year and Haren is a huge risk. But if you aim higher, then sure.

Brandon (Toronto): Bret, I play in a fairly deep competitive keeper league 16 team with a 20 man minor system. I am always looking for the edge in future top prospects as they carry quite the value in mid season trades etc. In 2011 I was able to grab a pre breakout Taveras and Bogaerts, since that year I am always looking for prospects who look to really make that jump from back end or outside the top 100 to future top 30 stud. I was wondering if you had some names to watch in A and Low A, that could make these leaps, particularly position players. Alen Hanson and Polanco are already picked up, Adalberto Mondesi is spoken for as well, trying to stay ahead of my competition.

Bret Sayre: If you want a few off the radar names, how about Zach Eflin and Dilson Herrera. And if you don't need to dig quite that deep, check out Dorssys Paulino, Blake Snell, Jeimer Candelario and Joe Ross.

Patty (NJ): You mentioned that you would prefer Wheeler over Skaggs...and "it's not even close". Care to elaborate? you have Wheeler ranked much higher than Skaggs, but most other lists have them very close. Are you higher on Wheeler than most, or lower on Skaggs? Thanks!

Bret Sayre: Both. Wheeler has better stuff, a higher ceiling and will pitch in a better ballpark. Skaggs has less room for error than other top starters because he's got less stuff than the guys who are ranked all around him on prospect lists. I'm very high on Wheeler, clearly.

Koenrraad (Manhattan): Which Braves Outfielder would you like to have long term?

Bret Sayre: The Justin Upton

nubber (tx): Do you think Mujica can hold onto the closers role?

Bret Sayre: Yes, if Rosenthal wasn't behind him. Think if Motte is out for the year, Rosenthal is in the role by Memorial Day.

nubber (tx): Does Evan Gattis hold much value once McCann gets back?

Bret Sayre: Probably not - once McCann and Freeman are healthy, he probably gets 2 starts a week plus one at bat a night as the first guy off the bench. Leaves him in fantasy purgatory.

Mike (NYC): What's your take on Jarrod Parker's struggles? Time to give up in a 12 team league or smaller?

Bret Sayre: In a redraft, I can see cutting bait on him. In a dynasty league, I'm hanging onto him and keeping faith in the talent. He's got it, he just needs to get back in touch with it.

morrsco (Atlanta ): I will most likely have the 1st pick in my dynasty draft next season. Do you have any thoughts about the top players turning pro this year? Is Appel the clear choice over Frazier or Meadows?

Bret Sayre: It'll be a tough call between Appel, Gray and Frazier. But if Colorado pops Frazier at 3rd overall, all bets are off.

ubersamoyed (Frisco, tx): Re:Stanton, Rangers. If you were the Marlins, what would you do with Stanton, if anything? Could you create a fair package from the Rangers system? Who?

Bret Sayre: If I'm the Marlins, I trade him in this coming off-season - which will potentially be the height of his value. And sure, but it would include Profar and Olt, among others. Might be a package we haven't seen since the Mark Teixeira trade.

tonynelson19 (MN): What are your thoughts on the early success at the plate for Stetson Allie?

Bret Sayre: I LOVE it. He's a real long shot to make an impact at the major league level, but the power display he's put on at West Virginia so far this season has been really exciting to see.

jimcal (Seattle): How would you value Kimbrel in keeper league? to be specific, would you rather have Kimbrel($3) or Chris Archer($1) + Zach Wheeler($1) + N Castellano ($1)?

Bret Sayre: He's valuable, but he's also still just a closer. I like the thought of packaging him for value elsewhere, and those are three very good prospects. I'd do that.

phin (Milwaukee): thoughts on josh johnson in mixed leagues and in dynasty leagues?

Bret Sayre: Big fan. Him staying healthy was HUGE last year and think he'll have a very good 2013 season. Long term, he seems to have a training regimen which he feels comfortable will keep him healthy, so with each passing season his risk goes down.

cal guy (cal): If Appel had signed last year and started his pro career, how do you think he would rank compared to Gausman, Zimmer, and other 2012 draftees?

Bret Sayre: Impossible to answer, but if I had to choose between them in a league right now, I'd slot him behind Gausman and Zimmer.

swarmee (Niceville, FL): Tie ballgame last night in the 7th between CIN/PHI. Runners on 2nd and 3rd with nobody out, and Jay Bruce up. Do you walk him and pitch to Todd Frazier with the force outs, or take your chances with Bruce? Win Expectancy gives a 3% improvement to pitching to the batter, which to me would be negated by the downgrade in hitter from Bruce to Frazier.

Bret Sayre: With one out, probably. Not with none.

nubber (tx): Do you think Coco Powerpuff Crisp can be a top 60 fantasy player by the end of the season? He looks phenomenal right now.

Bret Sayre: Nope. He never stays healthy long enough to do that. Very unlikely to start that in his age-33 season.

Patty (NJ): Brandon asked about under the radar guys in A ball... thoughts on Max Fried?

Bret Sayre: Fried is anything but under the radar at this point, but I'm a huge, huge fan. Think he'll be the top left-handed pitching prospect in the minors by the end of the year.

Mike (Toronto): How many guys in the Astros farm system do you expect to see starting the 2014 season?

Bret Sayre: Of the big prospects, maybe just Singleton and Cosart. Springer will likely be up by mid-2014, depending on how he looks this year.

Jbird (Heaven): Will Wil myers be legit in a dynasty league or is he trade bait?

Bret Sayre: Both, in the right circumstances. He should be a very good hitter in the long term, but if you can turn him into a very good hitter in the near term, that may be worth exploring.

phin (Milwaukee): what is the value of michael morse in dynasty leagues? would you buy, hold or sell?

Bret Sayre: I'd sell him if someone wants to overpay. It's less about performance risk than about health risk.

alkal247 (Philadelphia): Im in a 12 team dynasty league where you have a 10 player minor league roster and I just got offered Gerrit Cole for Wil Myers Im struggling trading a bat for a pitcher especially one that could be Jay Bruce-esque but Cole does punch people out... thoughts?

Bret Sayre: They're very, very close in value, but when in doubt, I lean towards the hitter.

Joe (Seattle): Would you rather have Matt Harvey or Jordan Zimmerman longterm in a keeper league?

Bret Sayre: Harvey.

cdluzier (Dover DE): Where do ya put Hanson in the list of young SS? (Profar, Lindor, Bogaerts, Correa, Segura). And do ya think Bogaerts sticks at SS?

Bret Sayre: After Profar, Bogaerts, Correa and Segura -- but that's no knock on Hanson. And yes in the short-term on Bogaerts sticking at SS. Won't last terribly long though before he has to move.

Brandon L. (Pittsburgh): If I dealt Strasburgh and Sean Burnett for Verladner, how do you think I did?

Bret Sayre: In a redraft league, you did well. Like Verlander better this year.

nubber (tx): What minor leaguers do you see making the biggest fantasy impacts later in the season?

Bret Sayre: Obvious answers are obvious. Profar, Taveras and Myers.

cal guy (cal): How would you rank the following for a dynasty league: Cole, Walker, A. Bradley, Stephenson, A. Sanchez?

Bret Sayre: Cole, Walker, Bradley, Sanchez, Stephenson.

cal guy (cal): Who is the next big international star to come to America? Tanaka of Japan?

Bret Sayre: I'm ready for a ride on the Despaigne Train.

Nate (Jersey): Matt Adams...this guy was a beast in the minors, but never got much attention because of his size. Can he be the next Trumbo? Butler?

Bret Sayre: If everything breaks right and he's given the opportunity, sure. But he's more likely to be Butler than Trumbo -- he can hit for average.

Ed (Cranford, NJ): Hello Bret How many saves do you think A.J. Ramos will get for Miami and is there much of a chance he gets the closer job this season?

Bret Sayre: Two, and not really.

@Nick_Seaton (Kansas): Is Harvey going to keep up this pace or at least be a front line starter, or is he likely going to start regressing a little?

Bret Sayre: He won't keep up this pace, but he's going to be a very good fantasy starter for a very long time. Just never a true fantasy ace.

Ben (Albany, NY): When do we see Xander Bogearts? Once he is here, where will he rank among other similar young players like Profar, Machado, Taveras, Myers and any others i might be missing?

Bret Sayre: Early 2014, most likely. He's got the upside to hold his own versus any of those guys, but he'll likely slot just barely behind them all.

nubber (tx): Do you expect Reynolds to regress back to a free agent caliber player or could he be rosterable all season? 30+ HR pop?

Bret Sayre: He's going to bounce between rosters and the waiver wire all year. Not a guy you can rely on for a full season.

Nate (KC): Higher Ceiling and Year they get to the League if you are feeling adventurous: Ventura or Zimmer? Mondesi or Calixte? Hernandez or Bonifacio? Any sleepers in the Royals system?

Bret Sayre: Ventura (late 2013), Mondesi (2016), Bonifacio (2015). Miguel Almonte is a guy to keep a close eye on.

cal guy (cal): Is Roman Quinn the real deal and how would you rank him against the other super speedsters, Hamilton and DeShields?

Bret Sayre: He could be in time, but not yet. He's well behind the other two.

BenC22 (TDG): What are your thoughts on Roman Quinn, SS PHI? I've seen some pretty handsome analysts hype him up from a Fantasy POV.

Bret Sayre: Come again for Big Fudge?

Ed (BOS): I think we knew there would be some growing pains with Bogaerts this season, but it hasn't been pretty. Concerned?

Bret Sayre: Not at all. Still a stud.

nubber (tx): Are there any pitchers you think will make the next step up with the aces like Verlander, Kershaw, Strasburg, King Felix, Price?

Bret Sayre: Does Adam Wainwright count?

cdluzier (Dover): Has Renaudo figured it out and where do you think his ceiling is?

Bret Sayre: Probably not, but he's at least worth paying attention to now. Ceiling is likely a #4 starter unless he takes some large steps forward.

nubber (tx): Do you think either Hosmer or Moustakas turn it around this season?

Bret Sayre: I think they both do.

Gobucs (Arizona): Can you give me an idea about ROTO scoring and strategy. Example: If you have a pitcher with a high ERA of 5.__ to 7.___. (maybe even higher) when the game starts. Then he does very well & lowers it. Are you scored on what it was lowered to by doing well, or what he actually did well during the game to make it now be lower. I am afraid at times to put a pitcher in that I know the odds of him doing great are tremendously on his side, but he had 2 bad games prior & entered the game with a high ERA. His doing great will lower that elephant of an ERA of course, but what is my price to it all? What it got lowered to? OR What he did did during the game that day.

Bret Sayre: It's what he did during that game - or else it would make for some very interesting decision making over the course of the first month or two of the season.

Patty (NJ): where do you see Archie Bradley ranking amongst prospects in 2014? Is it crazy to think that he will be the TOP pitching prospect? Command was an issue last season, in a small sample, he has seemed to improve that aspect.

Bret Sayre: Not crazy, but not likely. I still like Taijuan Walker to be the #1 pitching prospect in the game in 2014.

CharlieWerner (York Pa): With Headley coming off the DL who should I drop in a dynasty league? Victorino, Z Wheeler, Rosenthal, D Robertson, O'Flaherty are the only real options. 9x9 custom scoring including holds. 28 man rosters

Bret Sayre: Drop O'Flaherty. Holds are replaceable.

Ryan (SLC): Thoughts on Chris Owings fast start? Is he Josh Rutledge 2.0?

Bret Sayre: Is being Josh Rutledge 2.0 a good thing or a bad thing? Owings can be a better baseball player and fantasy player than Rutledge. But then again, I am not a Rutledge fan.

Jim (PA): If G. Cole doesn't harness much better fastball command is he at worst a 3/4 or a total bust? I'm getting worried...

Bret Sayre: It's way too early to worry about that. Even if Cole never develops the way he has the potential to, he can still be an A.J. Burnett type.

JoeTinker (Chicago): How do I value Addison Reed if I just started a dynasty rebuild? I know closers should be the first thing to go in a rebuild, but I can't help but believe he's relatively stable and likely to help me when I compete again in 2-3 years. Thanks

Bret Sayre: Here is a list of all closers who recorded 25 or more saves in 2010: Brian Wilson (48), Heath Bell (47), Rafael Soriano (45), Joakim Soria (43), Matt Capps (42), Neftali Feliz (40), Francisco Cordero (40), Carlos Marmol (38), Billy Wagner (37), Jonathan Papelbon (37), Kevin Gregg (37), Mariano Rivera (33), David Aardsma (31), Juan Oviedo (30), Bobby Jenks (27), Ryan Franklin (27), Brad Lidge (27), Jose Valverde (26), Francisco Rodriguez (25) and Andrew Bailey (25).

nubber (tx): Wainwright counts. Any prospects you think could be true #1s or other vets that have that potential?

Bret Sayre: A few others: Darvish, Matt Moore, Gerrit Cole, Dylan Bundy.

justarobert (Santa Clara, CA): A recent Minor League Update put 7 power, 5 hit grades on both Puig and Choice. Do you concur? How do they compare as hitters?

Bret Sayre: Seems reasonable to me. They both are potential 30 HR hitters, but they come in very different packages. Puig is also a 6 runner, while Choice is below-average.

Brandon (Toronto): Thoughts on Luis Sardinas? Do you see him as a guy who could climb the top lists this year?

Bret Sayre: Prospect lists, he could climb a good bit. Fantasy prospect lists, not so much. He might just be a speed-only guy without elite speed.

phin (Milwaukee): took over a clunker in a dynasty league and decent SP is non-existant on the wire. was able to trade for and pick up some SP prospects (archer, gausman, taillon and cingrani). any other young guys i should target? just missed out on wheeler. my trade chips are ellsbury, morse and papelbon.

Bret Sayre: Target the next wave of potential studs. Max Fried, Aaron Sanchez, Archie Bradley and Taylor Guerrieri are all potential top-25 prospects next year.

Joe (Seattle): Just offered Chris Archer and Nolan Arenado for Cingrani in a keeper league where I am rebuilding from scratch. Thoughts?

Bret Sayre: Leave the chat right now and hit accept. I give you permission to go.

nubber (tx): Do you think Josh Donaldson is legit?

Bret Sayre: Legit as in a guy who could hit .260 with 20 HR? Absolutely.

IrishPhog (StL): What's your take on Michael Wacha? Mid-rotation (in real life) SP?

Bret Sayre: Cosigned. Think he'll be in the Cards pen during the 2nd half and then groomed for the rotation eventually, a la Trevor Rosenthal.

Jim (Portland): Do you think Brian Wilson or Joakim Soria become effective closers ever again? Is Feliz most likely going to close in Texas next season?

Bret Sayre: Soria, yes. Wilson, probably not. It will be a battle between Soria and Feliz in Texas next year, but the Rangers could always try Feliz back in the rotation again.

justarobert (Santa Clara, CA): How many major or minor leaguers have more power than Despaigne?

Bret Sayre: Off the top of my head, he'd probably slide in near the back of the top-10 prospects as far as power is concerned. Lots of major leaguers with that much power, but very few of them from a sub 6'0" frame. That's what makes the Despaigne Train so fun to watch.

morrsco (Atlanta): With McCann's free agency fast approaching what impact could Evan Gattis have in 2014?

Bret Sayre: Let's all slow our roll with Evan Gattis. He may just be Chris Shelton with below average defense behind the plate.

Erik (NY): Im really trying to get a feel for how Profar compares to other MI that have come along. What type of numbers should we expect within the next few years?

Bret Sayre: He's the best middle infield prospect in at least four or five seasons. Could be a .300 hitter with 20 HR and 20 SB.

Jim (Portland): Do you like Carlos Gomez? He's been cold to start the year but 3 hits yesterday and a homer today.

Bret Sayre: Not as much as some of the other BP fantasy guys, but tough to deny his ability to fill up the box score. He's always going to be a pretty streaky hitter though.

Erik (NY): You mentioned Taijuan Walker as being #1. Is he worthy of a grab this season in a keeper league? Can only hold 3 arms. i own Jose Fernandez and Shelby Miller as well.

Bret Sayre: Yes, definitely worth a grab in a keeper league. He may be gone if you wait too long.

Benny (CA): What is Yasiel Puig's ceiling? Physically, he looks like a monster.

Bret Sayre: I don't think anyone knows yet. He is crazy impressive physically and could be a 30-30 guy while hitting for a reasonable average. Or he could completely flame out as a major leaguer because he's unable to adjust to major league quality off-speed stuff. He's super exciting though.

Canteen Boy (NJ): when do you see Oscar Taveras getting PT? With Adams mashing it seems there would need to be injuries to Beltran and Holliday or jay as there are no good cf options really.

Bret Sayre: Not until there's an injury, or 2014. But there are a few injury prone players ahead of him, so it's more likely than it would be on other teams.

Scott (OC): Is there ever a situation where you would rather have an empty lineup spot over a poor player for a short period of time in a roto league? My example is that Erick Aybar is on the DL for another 10 days, and the best options on the waiver wire are Cozart and Brandon Crawford. Would the negligible gain in runs and RBI be enough to off-set the hit to BA? Thanks!

Bret Sayre: Rarely ever, and if Cozart is available, that doesn't apply. Grab him over running an empty spot out there.

Alonso (Brooklyn): Harvey will never be a true ace? What are you basing that on?

Bret Sayre: Scouting reports and having watched him pitch a bunch. He still doesn't have great fastball command and when he misses, he tends to miss up. Aces are a rare breed, and it's no slight to say that I don't think he'll be one.

Mike (NYC): What's your take on Elvis Andrus? Potential for more power or is his swing just not geared towards it?

Bret Sayre: He might develop a little more, but he is unlikely to be a double-digit HR guy at any point. Around 5-8 per year seems like a reasonable expectation at his peak.

Brandon (Pittsburgh): Can you rank these guys please. Thanks! Marcus Stroman, Didi Gregorius, Jorge Alfaro, Austin Hedges, Daniel Norris, Lance McCullers, Bryce Brentz, Daniel Corcino, Clayton Blackburn, Delino DeShields.

Bret Sayre: DeShields, Blackburn, McCullers, Alfaro, Brentz, Stroman, Hedges, Norris, Corcino, Gregorius.

Abnergreen (Puerto Rico): You think Despaigne will come out before Dariel Abreu? Also Who does Stryker Trahan compare to?

Bret Sayre: If I knew the order in which Cuban National Team players were going to defect, I'd start playing the lottery more often. Trahan is a Wil Myers type of catcher, in that he'll keep playing the position until Arizona either moves him off because he can't cut it or because they just want his bat faster. Offensively, he's not Wil Myers, but could hit for solid average and power down the road.

cdluzier (Dover, DE): Rank offensive order for 2015: Correa, Lindor, A Reed, Hanson, Profar, Segura, and Bogaerts (if still SS)

Bret Sayre: Profar, Bogaerts, Segura, Russell, Lindor and Correa/Hanson are still in the minors.

Joe (Seattle): What kind of season will it take for Xander Bogaerts to top the charts of prospect lists for 2014?

Bret Sayre: A healthy one.

RangerRenob (Fort Worth): Two hypotheticals: 1) Danny Hultzen gets the call to replace Maurer in the M's rotation this Sunday vs. Rangers. Is he worth replacing a Nolasco/Miggy Gonzalez/Felix Doubront type? If so who would you move? 2) Liriano apparently looked solid in A debut. Ks are nice, but the velo is what gets me all hot and bothered. Is he worth stashing now? 2b) Have two young 1B who are dragging, Rizzo and Ike Davis, keeper league, both have similar contracts, would you drop either of them for Liriano? Have DH slot but A-Ram and Ortiz will take that slot when they return from DL.

Bret Sayre: I would drop Miguel Gonzalez for Hultzen if he got the call. I would stash Liriano if I could, but I'm a complete sucker for him and I can't even try to hide it. Definitely wouldn't drop either Davis or Rizzo for him. No way.

warpigs (Austin): Until Hanley gets off the DL, my infield is on the weak side in a 9 team NL only league where all active players must start. Currently I have Prado at 3B, Mark Ellis 2B and Mayberry in a Utility slot. The injury to Aaron Hill opens things up a bit on a tight waiver wire and I'm thinking about adding Eric Chavez at 3B, sliding Prado over to 2B, and waiving either Mayberry or Ellis. Do you have a recommendation?

Bret Sayre: I'd rather be playing Chavez than Ellis. At least he has a little more upside, but watch their usage patterns. If Chavez is going to be playing only 2-3 times a week to get Gregorius/Pennington both in there, go with Ellis.

Nick (Topeka): Would you rank long term- Jose Fernandez, Dylan Bundy, Matt Moore?

Bret Sayre: Moore, Bundy, Fernandez.

IrishPhog (StL): Is there a rule of thumb for long it takes elite (say Top 10) prospects to become above average regulars (not necessarily All-Stars)? For example, is it likely Taveras or Myers goes .300/.350/.500 in their second full season or will it take longer?

Bret Sayre: Nope, everyone's different. Just don't expect your top prospects to hit right away and you won't be disappointed. Between Taveras and Myers, I'd expect Taveras to hit better out of the chute because A) he's the better hitter and b) he makes a ton more contact.

nubber (tx): Do you think Carl Crawford is back?

Bret Sayre: Not to his elite production days, but yes. I think he's going to have a very, very good year.

Mitch (Iowa): Random "watch list" question. What are your thoughts on Arismendy Alcantara and Adam Morgan?

Bret Sayre: Both are good players to watch. Higher on Alcantara than Morgan, but Morgan's much closer to making a major league impact.

RC (PDX): Is Felix Dumbrount worth keeping on a 12 team mixed roster? He's pitching today and don't feel confident in starting him. Any high upside pitchers to target for end of the rotation SP spots?

Bret Sayre: Was that a Freudian slip? He's not really worth owning in a 12 teamer for now. You can find better pitching on the wire. How about someone like Chris Tillman or Ervin Santana? Or Francisco Liriano?? Someone help me. Seriously.

Mr. Slate (Bedrock): Hey Bret, how close do you think Allen Webster is to getting a call up? I currently roster Hultzen, Gerrit Cole and Gausman in a dynasty league. I have one pitching slot open that is occupied by Edwin Jackson. Are any others droppable for Webster? Also, Mike Olt is he a continue to hold onto prospect? I am holding Puig, Soler, Baez and Arcia(Twins) currently.

Bret Sayre: If he keeps pitching like he has been, it won't be long. But even if he got the call up tomorrow, I wouldn't drop Edwin Jackson for him. Mike Olt is worth holding, but if there's a better use of that spot, I'm not sure you'll miss him all that much if you had to cut bait.

maattwind (Brazil): 10 team very deep AL only keeper - been offered Peavy ($8) for my injured Reyes ($41 - but would not keep him at this price anyway, just concentrating on this year). Rest of my MI is Kipnis, Jeter, Marwin, T. Greene, and rest of my offense is solid with plenty of speed. I'm good in K's but have not started well in ERA and WHIP. Should I wait out the 3 months or pull the trigger?

Bret Sayre: I'd take Peavy and get out from under that injury. Reyes may be great when healthy, but 5 1/2 months of Peavy is likely to be more valuable than 3 months of Reyes. Plus, if it's a keeper, Peavy makes for a pretty nice value at $8 in an AL-only.

eamuscatuli15 (Nebraska): Hey Brett...I'm in an 11 man mixed points league. roster limit is 26. we set lineups weekly. right now my starting pitchers are C.C., Yu, Hellickson, Samardzija, Edwin Jackson, Colon, Burnett, DeLaRosa, Nolasco, and Tillman. I would like to pick up Dan Straily to stash on my bench. But i've already got O. Taveras stashed at the moment with Cespedes taking up a roster spot as well. Just wondering if you recommend picking up Straily now, and if so what pitcher should i drop (or possibly Taveras) Thanks for the help Brett!

Bret Sayre: I'd drop either Colon or Nolasco for Straily. He's definitely worth a stash.

swarmee (Niceville, FL): Is the lack of lineup protection or shoulder injury going to result in a downgrade to the PECOTA projection for Giancarlo Stanton?

Bret Sayre: Can't speak for PECOTA, but I didn't understand the people who were just shaking off any notion of lineup protection with regards to Stanton before the season. In fantasy, it really matters as nearly half of all offensive stats are context dependent.

Ben (NY): When Does Arenado get called up?

Bret Sayre: May 24th.

justarobert (Santa Clara, CA): On the subject of Cozart...any preference between him and Kipnis as hitters, this year and long term?

Bret Sayre: Kipnis should be able to hit for better average and steal more bases, but they should both be similar in the power department. Man, the Kipnis bandwagon has tumbled off the cliff, hasn't it?

RC (PDX): How worried should we be about Jason Kipnis? Other waiver wire or buy low 2B to target if he is seriously injured?

Bret Sayre: See! You could probably get Jeff Keppinger for a song right now, and he should turn it around. Also, I'd be buying low on Dustin Ackley if you could. His owner is probably super frustrated with him right about now.

Ambrose (Boston, Ma): Could you please advise if billy hamilton would be worth keeping in a 14 team dynasty rotisserie league? Will he ever hit and be able to get on base to steal those bases OR is he a sell high candidate? Thank you for answering this question.

Bret Sayre: Yes and yes. In a roto dynasty league, Hamilton is extremely valuable. He had a .400+ OBP last year in the minors, so he's got a better chance at putting that speed to use than someone like Dee Gordon.

Dustin hale (San diego): Looking to trade for Albert P, an Brett Anderson i would be giving up martin prado, r soriano , and jason kipnis. I would be moving headley to my 3rd base spot picking up keppinger for my 2nd base but leaving me with only 1 closer. Its a H2h points league strikeouts +1. Id be putting albert in 1 of my 2 utility spots

Bret Sayre: That value seems OK, but if it leaves you with too many holes, try to redo the deal possibly without Anderson.

nubber (tx): Is Daniel Murphy for real?

Bret Sayre: I touched his arm once. So yes.

phin (Milwaukee): what do you think about andrew cashner in a dynasty lge?

Bret Sayre: Huge risk, but potentially large return. I just worry he'll never stay healthy enough to make good on his promise. He's absolutely the type of player I like to target as a bench player in a dynasty league though.

nubber (tx): Is Kenley Jansen ever going to be the Dodgers closer? Do you think League is good enough to keep the gig?

Bret Sayre: Yes and yes. Jansen will get a shot eventually, but League is good enough for the role.

Big T (McCracken): Can we expect the Cardinals to make room for Matt Adams as a starter this year? Next year? He has raked throughout his minor league career.

Bret Sayre: I don't see how they do that either this year or next year. Think he ends up as trade bait if they need an upgrade at SS as the season goes on.

Brandon (Pittsburgh ): DeShields, Blackburn, McCullers, Alfaro, Brentz, Stroman, Hedges, Norris, Corcino, Gregorius. What ranking style was this?

Bret Sayre: Single spaced with commas. My favorite kind.

Brandon (Smackdown Hotel): Expectations for Tony Cingrani and Didi Gregorius?

Bret Sayre: Expectations for Cingrani have gotten way out of control due to his crazy minor league numbers, including his first few starts this year. I don't think he'll be a big strikeout guy at the major league level, he's getting them based on deception/angle, not on overwhelming stuff. Gregorius is an afterthought for fantasy, but is a good enough defender to be an above-average regular for a number of years.

Erik (NY): Will Trevor Bauer be an ace by next year?

Bret Sayre: I don't think he'll ever be pitch efficient enough to be an ace. He's got a lot of work left to do.

Jquinton82 (NY): Any chance the Yankees can trade for Stanton or is that a wet dream denied where the alarm goes off before you get to pork the hot chick?

Bret Sayre: The problem with the Yankees farm system is that unless someone takes a huge step forward, they don't have that anchor for a deal. Maybe it can be Gary Sanchez or Mason Williams, but someone would have to really step up to be a superstar-level centerpiece. It's possible though.

Abnergreen (Puerto Rico ): Would you be looking to acquire Anthony Rendon on a Dynasty or move him? Since his injury history ?

Bret Sayre: Absolutely I'd be looking to acquire Rendon - especially if his owner is down on him for health reasons and you can get him at any discount. If the health concerns weren't there, he'd be a top-5 prospect.

Ben (NY): Too Early to give up on Haren?

Bret Sayre: Sadly, after tonight, maybe not. I'd hold onto him , but if you wanted to cut him in anything 12 teams or shallower, I wouldn't call you crazy. Sad state of affairs for him.

Abnergreen (Puerto Rico ): Should i be considered a criminal just got Archie Bradley for the Cingrani hypester

Bret Sayre: #criminal

Dhale243 (San diego): What do u do with segura when hanley comes back whats a pitxher i can go after?

Bret Sayre: If he's playing well at that point, you can target a solid starter who's off to a bit of a slow start. Possibly a Homer Bailey or C.J. Wilson - just keep your eyes open as to who needs MI help in your league.

springisotopes (Toronto): Justin Upton will be a top __ roto pick next year?

Bret Sayre: 5

cal guy (cal): Who is the best bet to give 5 category production in an OBP league... Buxton?

Bret Sayre: Best bet might be Profar. Highest upside might be Buxton.

phin (milwaukee): i could drop yelich, sano, or cashner for rendon right now in my dynasty lge. should i?

Bret Sayre: I'd take Rendon over Cashner. It's not like your avoiding the injury risk by hanging onto Cash anyway.

Abnergreen (Puerto Rico ): Is Lewis Brison really a 30/30 prospect?

Bret Sayre: It's a pipe dream, but at least it's some sort of dream. Very, very unlikely, but possible.

Druu (Das Interwebs): I'm seeing love for Straily and Ackley in this chat. Are either worth a pick up in a 16 team 8x8 dynasty with 24 roster slots (no dedicated MiLB spots)? [Roster as follows, if you'd care to look: J. Montero, Carter, Cano, Middlebrooks, Andrus, Melky, Cain, Morse, Headley, Papi, Kubel, Taveras, Zunino, Hill. Pitching: Samardzija, Fernandez, Kimbrel, Wilhelmsen, Shields, CC, Helickson, Estrada, Walker, Harrison.] Thanks!

Bret Sayre: Absolutely - both of them should be owned in a 16-team dynasty format.

phin (Milwaukee): thoughts on hiram burgos in a dynasty lge? he was lights out in the WBC. with fiers coming in from the bullpen burgos or thornburg would likely get the call to start this weekend.

Bret Sayre: I don't think he's particularly valuable, but then again, I certainly never saw the 2012 seasons from Estrada and Fiers coming. Maybe there's just something in the water up in Milwaukee. I'd rather see Thornburg get a shot, although I do think he's a reliever in the end.

nubber (tx): How would you rank longterm: Cole, Bundy, Fernandez, Walker, Taillon and Wheeler?

Bret Sayre: Cole, Bundy, Fernandez, Wheeler, Walker, Taillon. But you could put them in almost any order and I'd just nod.

stevejobs (china): how many saves does bruce rondon have this year

Bret Sayre: One.

phin (milwaukee): what's the ETA on rendon? not sure how many prospects (at 10 currently) i can roster and still be competitive

Bret Sayre: It's unpredictable - he could get the call whenever one of the Nats infielders gets hurt. And with Espinosa and his torn rotator cuff, it could almost be any moment.

Big T (McCracken): Have you ever heard of "Bret DoucheAss" Sayre? Hes a real scrub in RFK that has potential? Thoughts?

Bret Sayre: Never heard of him. Sounds like a scrub.

nubber (tx): Who do you think is best for the rest of this year at 2B: Dustin Ackley, Josh Rutledge, or Daniel Murphy?

Bret Sayre: Ackley. Still think he's the most talented out of that group.

Abnergreen (Puerto Rico ): My oldest OF in my dynasty league is Shin-Soo Choo, would Brian Goodwin be a good target to replace him via rookie draft? Brinson is also available.

Bret Sayre: I'd rather have Goodwin than Brinson. By the time you'd think about looking for a Choo replacement, Goodwin should be nice and ready.

Ben (NY): Taillon is available in my keeper league, but I already have Miller, Fernandez and Walker. Is Taillon a better long term option then Miller?

Bret Sayre: No, I'd hold tight.

Jim (Portland): Do you think Domonic Brown will breakout this year or more of the same?

Bret Sayre: I think we could be looking at a mild breakout. Not an OH MY GOD I HAVE TO HAVE HIM breakout, but it's not like there were much expectations for Brown to even become a reasonable fantasy option before Spring Training.

nubber (tx): Is it time to start worrying about Adam Dunn? He's looking like 2011 all over again.

Bret Sayre: You tell me - I play in 14 leagues and don't own him in a single one.

Tom (Boston): Just offered a rebuilding team Minor (cheap salary), Greg Polanco, Josh Bell and my 1st rd in next year's minors draft for Corey Hart, Grandal (cheap salary) and McCarthy in a dynasty league. Seem like a fair deal? I liked McCarthy coming into 2013, but he hasn't looked good, any concern there?

Bret Sayre: Not a ton of concern with McCarthy, but I don't love that deal for you. Minor has been very solid and Polanco/Bell are both legit prospects. I also worry about Corey Hart as he ages. But most importantly, we ALL stand with Boston.

BJBauer (Oakland): Over/under 11.5 on Martin Perez's games started for the Rangers this year?

Bret Sayre: Under, but I hope I'm wrong since I'm stashing him in a number of deeper leagues. Still a fan long term.

Abnergreen (Puerto Rico ): Odds Trevor Story ends up in 2B?

Bret Sayre: Unless he borrows the shrink ray from Honey I Shrunk the Kids, it's pretty close to zero. If he doesn't stick at SS, he's likely a 3B because he has the arm for it.

Adam (OnABoat): jay bruce vs oscar taveras? Forever dynasty league..

Bret Sayre: It's Bruce for right now, but that is subject to change once Taveras reaches the majors.

Pedro (Alabama): Rebuilding in a dynasty. Trade Beckett for Castellanos + Singleton?

Bret Sayre: Yea, that sounds like a really nice return for Beckett.

Erik (NY): When will we see Zunino and will he be an impact bat this season?

Bret Sayre: June 8th, and no, I don't think he'll have a huge fantasy impact in 2013. Catchers take time, even ones who hit really well in the minors.

phin (milwaukee): should i "sell high" on cingrani in a dynasty league? his hype is huge right now and his first couple turns are against terrible teams. guys i should target if i do??

Bret Sayre: If you can, absolutely. Odds are Cingrani is still a reliever long-term. Go as high up the food chain as possible - you never know what people are willing to offer.

bart (power plant): Is it more dangerous to trade away bruce or taveras in a dynasty league?

Bret Sayre: Taveras because you're going to get a better return for Bruce. You may kick yourself in three years when Taveras is a top-20 fantasy player.

eric (chavez): do we sit ike davis until he starts hitting?

Bret Sayre: Depends on your alternatives. If it's bleak, I'd still with Ike - especially while the Mets are at Coors. But if you want to sit him against lefties, go for it.

Steve N (Delaware): Didn't Bogaerts play for Hogwarts last year?

Bret Sayre: Hufflepuff MVP.

boneil33 (Boston): What do you think about Daniel Corcino and Casey Crosby? What is their ceiling?

Bret Sayre: Realistically, solid set up guys.

phin (Milwaukee): do you think myers is worth a stash in 12 team mixers with limited bench? i read an article the other day that suggested he might not even be tampa's first call up.

Bret Sayre: If it's a 3-man bench, probably not. Too much other value to be had in the meantime.

Dhale243 (San diego): Whos the minor leaguer we should be looking for the best value in terms of points this year?

Bret Sayre: Oscar Taveras. Tough to beat the value of a high-average slugger who won't strike out much.

nubber (tx): Do you have a pick for the greatest fantasy season ever? I love Pudge's 1999 season - .332 AVG 35 HR 25 SB 113 RBI 116 R all from a catcher!

Bret Sayre: Since I started playing fantasy, probably Larry Walker's 1997: .366 with 49 HR, 33 SB, 143 R, 130 RBI.

Smalls (sandlot): *tough one* josh donaldson or kyle seager and you can keep them for-ev-er.

Bret Sayre: Seager, but still think Donaldson is pretty legit.

Max powers (Springfield ): Bundy for Harvey in a dynasty league, who wins?

Bret Sayre: If both teams are competiting this year, the Harvey side. If not, it's a pick 'em.

Strength (Boston): #prayforboston

Bret Sayre: This.

Bret Sayre: Thanks so much to everyone for submitting so many great questions. It may take a while for us to really feel "normal" again after everything that happened in Boston yesterday, but the more positive interactions we have with others, the closer it gets. And this chat brought me a little closer than I was when I started. Be good, everyone.