Baseball Prospectus - Chat with Jason Collette

Chat: Jason Collette

Welcome to Baseball Prospectus' Friday February 15, 2013 12:00 PM ET chat session with Jason Collette.

Jason takes your fantasy questions.

Jason Collette: I'm home today because the cable guy was supposed to be here between 10 and 12 after missing that window on Monday. I'm still waiting....so let's chat!

Alex (Anaheim): Is there anyone you are especially interested to scout?

Jason Collette: I am most interested in seeing what Michael Pineda has after coming back from his surgery. He was fun to watch pitch in 2011.

rupertoooo (Lorton, VA): It seems that every day that passes Hanley Ramirez's value slips a bit. Are you a buyer at this point and if so when would you reach for him.

Jason Collette: The latest ADP report from NFBC shows Hanley dropped from 18.59 to 21.28. He went 26th in the mixed LABR draft the other night. I'm a buyer in the 20's

Craig (VA): Do you believe the Rangers will risk keeping N. Feliz in the starting rotation upon his return or do you believe they will put him in relief. What do you believe is his long term outlook, Closer?

Jason Collette: I didn't like the move last year when they moved him. I would leave him in the pen and not put him on the Joba/Hughes yo-yo

RUP (DC): PECOTA is extremely bullish on Kyuji Fujikawa as well as Marmol (why). What are the chances that Fujikawa unseats Marmol as closer to start the season. If not the start of the season do you believe Fujikawa will take over the role sometime during the season.

Jason Collette: Marmol's contract dictates he gets first chance to fail. Personally, I'd draft Fujikawa before I would touch Marmol because I don't need the ulcer. Saves are saves are saves, but Marmol has done nothing to guarantee his job longer than a game to game status.

rupertoooo (Lorton, VA): I love using BP's Player Forecast Manager as a major tool during a draft. In your opinion give a couple of players that PECOTA is too Bullish on as well as too Bearish

Jason Collette: I've been beating the Erasmo Ramirez drum all off-season but PECOTA isn't a fan; same with Alex Cobb. I think the 52 steals PECOTA has Bourn down for is a bit much given the fact Francona leans conservative in the running game. Alejandro de Aza's line surprises me as well.

The Piranha (Arlington, VA): Looking for some late round starting pitching. Could you list 3-5 pitchers which fall outside the top 75 who could make the biggest jump this year.

Jason Collette: Repeating Erasmo Ramirez, Hyun Kin Ryu, Clay Buchholz, Jason Hammel, and Alex Cobb. All 5 are out of the top 75 in the PFM right now

CraigR (DC): Thoughts on the following pitchers. Cody Buckel, Robbie Erlin, Kyle Crick and John Lamb

Jason Collette: Big Robbie Erlin fan - check out piece Bernie Pleskoff wrote on him http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130107&content_id=40870370&vkey=news_sd&c_id=sd . Like Buckel, Crick bears watching as he makes jump to advanced levels, while Lamb is a watch and see from a far.

rupertoooo (Lorton, VA): Will Dan Straily produce enough in the bigs to warrant a late round flyer or are there better options.

Jason Collette: I think he'll produce in terms of K's & WHIP. HR rate tempers excitement.

Javier Vazquez (Puerto Rico): Will I end up starting the season in the Majors or will I be an in-season pickup. Am I worthy of a late round flyer?

Jason Collette: In-season pickup if you're not in someone's camp by this time next week.

Mike Fiers (Milwaukee): Crystal Ball: 10-9 4.13ERA 1.25whip 165K's

Jason Collette: Please hold up over the course of the season this time. You scared the experts in LABR as you were drafted a full five rounds below your current NFBC ADP. I'm a fan

RP producers (USA): Mr. Collette, who would you add to this list of the best relief pitching options (no closers) for ratios: Kenlay Jansen, Trevor Rosenthal and Kyuji Fujikawa.

Jason Collette: Jake McGee, Luke Gregerson, Mark Melancon

Glen Perkins (Minnesota): Do you believe I survive the year as the Twins closer or will I struggle and be replaced.

Jason Collette: Yes, you have the stuff to be successful. Paul and I took you on our LABR team so do not let us down!

rupertoooo (Lorton, VA): Which lower tier closers have the best chance at becoming elite, if any.

Jason Collette: time to plug my closer matrix article! http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19615 -- I would love to see David Hernandez get a shot at closing. I like Bobby Parnell, Glen Perkins, and Greg Holland.

Jayson Werth (DC): I think I am in for a big year and will finally produce numbers that Nationals fans expect. .285 90 25 95 18 I believe I will be a big time value in fantasy this year. What you say?

Jason Collette: You are 33 years old so I'm bearish on you swiping 18 bases at your size. Additionally, your HR/FB rate is in a 5 year freefall making 25 home runs unlikely as well. You're on our NFBC team, but Sporer is a bigger fan than I am.

Mike (Chi-town): I loved seeing you with the gutsy 1st round pick of Harper in your recent draft. What numbers do you feel he has to put up to be worthy of that draft slot? I sit with Trout & Harper in my keeper league. I can't wait for draft & this fantasy season to start!

Jason Collette: That pick was all Paul's. I was surprised by it, like most people were. Is he worthy of the 14th overall pick? Maybe not, but if you're picking at the elbow and want a guy you believe in, you take him because he's never making it back. He's going to hit high in that lineup, will go 20/20 in his sleep so there's a chance he earns that 14th overall pick.

rupertoooo (Lorton, VA): Mr. Collette how would you rank the following SP's and do you believe that having two of the following would be enough as a start to your staff. Dan Haren Tim Lincecum James Shields Jon Lester

Jason Collette: Shields, Haren, Lincecum/Lester. Shields, by a considerable amount. Haren's back worries me, and Lincecum/Lester are at stages of their careers where they need to re-invent themselves. Lincecum's velo is down and Lester got too cutter happy and suffered for it last year. Hopefully the post-season success for Lincecum rights his way and Farrell gets Lester turned around. Any 2 of those guys would be a risky front of a fantasy staff.

John (NY): Jason! In a very deep roto league and only really need to fill my third base position with a low end guy. Any recommendations on who could just hold down the fort there and provide some kind of positive value? Thoughts on a chisehall? Michael Young bounce back? Something else?

Jason Collette: Jeff Keppinger - qualifies at 3B as well as other positions and moves to a park where he can hit for more homers while likely losing a bit of average. I've been able to take him 2x in the reserve rounds of expert mock drafts.

Chris (NJ): In your opinion who may be a few pitchers outside the top 100-150 or so that will possibly take a leap forward or make a name for themselves in 2013 that could be possible steals at the end of some drafts?

Jason Collette: Using the bottom 100 names from the PFM: Lucas Harrell, Nate Eovaldi, Chris Tillman, Alex Cobb, Jason Hammel

joe (CA): Given the volatility of the closers role in baseball, are there a few players you feel may emerge as dark horses during season or maybe even during upcoming spring training? I have seen the cubs fujikawa and a few names in Houston thrown around. Any others you feel may become somewhat relevant or just like in general granted some current closers fail? Thanks Jason!

Jason Collette: Gregerson, Rex Brothers, Brandon Lyon, Jim Henderson, Al Alburquerquequequque

chiroclimber (Kansas City): Who has the best chance to be a break out prospect for the Royals in 2013 or 2014?

Jason Collette: Numbers were down in 2012, but I'm still a big Cheslor Cuthbert guy

Andrew (Tampa): Is Matt Moore ready to harness his pitches and continue to build off his solid second half last year? 3.5 era with 185+ k, assuming a healthy year? Better, worse? What do you think?

Jason Collette: Matt Moore 2013 = David Price in 2010. That's what I expect. Most of Moore's HR's came early in the season and then his pitchability improved until he tired late.

Eric (New Yorkkk): Given CJ Wilson's second half struggles last year, do you feel he is being underrated in drafts? He has stated that an elbow injury really held him back but it seems like people still are overlooking him going into the season, especially with a dominant offense assembled. Thoughts?

Jason Collette: current NFBC ADP of 145 - went 99th in LABR Tuesday night. He's not going to be a bargain for long as those LABR results spread out on the intertubes. Stable skill set and run support should be very good this year.

Anthony (Sick in bed): New dynasty league, with deep farm system (20-teams, 25 prospects each). Prospects in yahoo database can be kept on your MLB roster. For the famr draft, I know you always take the best talent on the board. What o I do when we start getting into the teen rounds (let alone he late rounds) and "best on board" is next to impossible to determine. Suggestions/targets?

Jason Collette: Don't get me sick via TCP/IP...when you get that deep, go for the CF/SS/3B types. That's where the athletes and the power are and those guys can be moved to other positions by orgs to make room for their bats.

Louis (Glendale): I offered Starlin Castro, Ian Kennedy, Glen Perkins and Gary Brown for Adam Jones, Billy Hamilton, and Michael Pineda in 20-team dynasty. The leagues uses LF/CF/RF over OF, and has deep pitching requirements. The manager I proposed this to has McCutchen in CF, Jones is his DH. He has nobody at SS currently (my backup is Segura). He proposes back Robinson Cano, Starlin Castro, and Ian Kennedy for Adam Jones, Neil Walker, Jason Vargas, and Michael Pineda. I'm not off my game when I say this guy is one suit short of a full deck, am I?

Jason Collette: I'd trade one of my kids before I traded away Billy Hamilton in a league. For him to take Hamilton out of the deal and ask you to throw in Cano is rather entertaining. Who does he think you are, Jeff Loria?

Sal ( Staten island): I have Carlos Quentin, Nick Markakis, Carlos Gomez, and Brandon Moss for 5 dollars each in a deep $325 32 roster spots league. Given several ?s such as health and building off breakout seasons, do you have any particular feelings on any of these players to produce to the level they have once or recently shown?

Jason Collette: Either way, those are great bargains in a deep league. Quentin is in the "best shape of his life" if you're a believer in that...I'd gladly take all 4 of those guys in a deep league like that.

Francois (Toronto): I love the fact you are doing this the day after Paul Sporer. These should be daily! When in an auction draft, what kind of split do you like to use? I have seen 60:40, 70:30 and 75:25 (all hitting:pitching) as the most common ratios. Are their positions you tend to spend more at then others? Thanks for the chat!

Jason Collette: It worked out that we both had time off in the day, which is a rarity for me. We're looking at some night chats and weekend chats in the season for fantasy since the staff all has other jobs by day. In auctions, I go to the table with what the league average was in the previous season and adjust as I see things playing out. If the league is going heavy hitting compared to last year, I'll zag and grab pitching to trade to them later.

Hal (OH): Bundy or W.Myers - who arrives first? Who's more productive from a fantasy standpoint in 2013?

Jason Collette: Depends who signs the pre-arbitration deal first. Baltimore & TB do not want to start that service time clock any earlier than they have to for these guys. I'll go with Bundy for bigger 2013 producer

Johnny (St.Pete): What are your thoughts on D.Jennings this year? I would love for him to become Crawford 2.0 - that is when Crawford 2.0 was trendy - lol.

Jason Collette: current ADP of 70, was taken 69th in LABR. Maddon has said he's the leadoff guy and Maddon will let him run. Jennings has a weakness at the top of the zone where he can't lay off the high fastballs and it's something he'll have to work on to get that OBP up to take full advantage of his speed on the bases.

Jim (Cleveland): More value by years end - Rondon, T.Rosenthal, or K.Jansen?

Jason Collette: I'll go with Rosenthal

Willie Norwood (Bloomington): In an OBP league where we keep 8, would you rather have a $7 Hill or $4 Austin Jackson? I also have Kipnis. I have JUpton and Harper. I guess it boils down to whether you'd rather look for a MI in auction or find an OF.

Jason Collette: I'd rather take Aaron Hill

Steve (Milwaukee): Drafted Buster Posey ($8), Yu Darvish ($10), Yoenis Cespedes ($2), Jayson Heyward ($16), Adam Jones ($19), Adam Wainwright ($23) and Sergio Romo ($1). Get to keep 4, values increase by $3 this year. Definitely keeping Posey, Darvish & Cespedes, so who should be the 4th? I'm leaning towards Heyward.

Jason Collette: Can you send an AJ Bombers burger in the mail to me, please? I'm keeping Posey, Darvish, Cespedes, and Heyward.

Max (Queens): Is Trevor Rosenthal a career starter or reliever? short-term?

Jason Collette: I want him in the rotation, he has the stuff to do it.

Jim (Detroit): I'm in an AL-only league that lets us stash a couple prospects on the bench. Which AL prospects do you think might get called up midseason and make a fantasy impact?

Jason Collette: Bundy, Myers, Bauer, Kyle Gibson (looked good in AFL) and Mike Zunino

Mateo (Reno): Are the chances good that Carter Capps and Kelvin Herrera can unseat Tom Wilhemsen and Greg Holland is the (primary) 9th inning option?

Jason Collette: I'd say more for injury than skills as I like both of those incumbents.

nictaclacta (Phoenix): To trade or to hold question. Ten team dynasty league 5x5. 15 keepers, 10 minors. First four rounds of picks returned to pool. Currently have Neftali Feliz and Joakim Soria. Should I hold them or try to trade either or both of them? Thank you.

Jason Collette: I'd deal both of them

Sean (Peoria): How long can Xander Bogaerts remain at SS?

Jason Collette: as long as the Red Sox want to leave him there. I agree with what Kevin & Parks often said on Up & In - you leave a guy at the position as long as you can

AK (Phoenix): For those who haven't seen, Padres prospect Rymer Liriano will haveTJS and will miss 6 months. Delmon Young to have micro-fracture surgery on ankle, will start season on DL. No wuestion, just sharing the news.

Jason Collette: Sucks with Liriano as he is one of my favorite prospects. Delmon Young is addition by subtraction for the Phillies. Now, I wonder if they'll coax Darren Daulton out of retirement to block Domonic Brown even further.

Jason (Charlottesville, VA): Long time Tower of Power listene. Seems like a lot of VA love. Mid Round Risks- What are your thoughts on Utley, Carl Crawford and Mike Napoli? Do you see any of these guys surprising by putting up early round talent?

Jason Collette: thanks for the patronage..especially from my birth state (Fredericksburg). I like Crawford the best; anything over 450 PA for Utley or Napoli has to be considered a bonus. I don't see any of the producing top 75 value.

Amazin Mess (Malone NY): Is Rymer Liriano worth holding on to in a dynasty league? Tommy John is going to cost him a year of development and he had a ways to go as is.

Jason Collette: Yes, because he was young for the levels he was playing in anyhow.

Tyler Colvin (Denver): How many AB's am I getting this year?

Jason Collette: 450 -- unless you improve vs lefties.

BStephen (The W ): Dominic Brown....Is This The Year? Did your Partner take A pitcher to Early in LABR Draft?

Jason Collette: I think Brown needs a change of scenery. Paul and I did the draft together starting with round 3. I'm 10000% behind Darvish & Moore where they were taken.

GoneTroutFishin (NJ): Is it realistic to say that Wil Myers has ZERO chance of getting called up until the projected Super-Two deadline has passed?

Jason Collette: less than zero unless he signs a deal.

tbs727 (St. Petersburg, FL): Any thoughts on Josh Hamilton this year?

Jason Collette: His ADP is is currently 15.3 but he went 35th in LABR! I have no idea why he fell that far. I'm not willing to take him 15th but no way should he make it out of the 20s

Tim (DC): What's your take on Hosmer's disappointing 2012 and his future prospects? Do you view him as a future All-Star at 1B a few years down the road?

Jason Collette: not ready to give up on him yet. I think too many overdrafted guys like him without seeing how they handled a full season in the bigs and paid the price.

tbs727 (St. Petersburg, FL): Do you think Matt Moore tired late or was he distracted by the whole 'tipping his pitches' thing?

Jason Collette: I think he tired...the tipping/pumping thing with his pitches was something that lingered from time to time and I recall seeing him do it with a change-up a few times which really toyed with hitters.

Josh (St. Louis): If Moreland struggles and gets moved off of 1B, do you think Olt plays there or Kinsler moves over so Profar can play 2B? Thoughts on Olt overall?

Jason Collette: That's a crowded depth chart and adding Berkman didn't help matters. If Kinsler is going to move, they should do it right now rather than wait until mid-season to do that. The more reps, the better. I like Olt - that's real pop in his bat.

Phil (MI): Do you think I could get by with Belt to start at 1B? Possibly try to add a C.Carter as insurance? I hated all last year being thin at 1B, but you have to pick your poison sometimes on draft day. The 1B depth is a lightening in a bottle pick for me more often than not.

Jason Collette: 1B isn't terribly deep, but I don't want Belt as my only guy. Belt/Carter is more my comfort level

straymond (toronto): How is the transcript of the IM during LABR coming? Thanks so much for replying on FB while drafting - very cool!

Jason Collette: It's not -- the editing was so severe it made the chat rather boring. We were super profane as owners were stealing our picks left and right.

Bud (Ole' Milwaukee): How under the radar would you expect C.Hart to fly? Does he have a legit shot to be back sooner than originally expected? I want my draft moved up before too much info comes out on this status. Would love for people to stay away because of his injury.

Jason Collette: He went 221st overall in LABR and his NFBC ADP fell 20 points over the last week. Milwaukee's medical staff is solid and I'll believe the team over the player. My rule of thumb, add 1-2 weeks on all player estimates on return dates.

AJ (Phoenix): Josh Hamilton and Adrian Gonzalez: Who do you want this year, who do you want going forward (keeper/dynasty)?

Jason Collette: Gonzo now, Hamilton long-term

temple (madison wi): i've heard a lot about david dahl recently. in a dynasty league, does it make sense to draft players in low a and wait. we have a 35 player roster. 14 players and 9 pitchers count. or is it better to wait and draft players in double or triple a. there will be less choices because some of the very best do get drafted in low a.

Jason Collette: Your league is't deep enough to roster a guy that has only played rookie ball. I play in leagues with 40 man rosters and I don't draft anyone that doesn't have a 1 year of full-season ball under their belt.

temple (madison): choosing a catcher as a long term keeper. blake swihart or austin hedges, who has the highest ceiling in terms of the bat?

Jason Collette: Hedges, but dynasty catchers have a very high rate of failure. I avoid taking them myself and let others play with fire.

Tom (LA): How much of A-Gonz's decreased power the last 2 seasons do you attribute to his shoulder injury & subsequent surgery? Do you think he'll get back to Top 5 production for 1B?

Jason Collette: A lot...shoulder injuries suck. I've had 2 of them to my right shoulder. I think Gonzalez is a top 5 1B this season.

Phil (Pittsburgh): I know his numbers will most likely regress along with his BABIP in '13, but PECOTA is projecting a drop 130-point drop in OPS for McCutchen. Thoughts?

Jason Collette: I'm uncomfortable with that kind of drop-off. I think 75ish points is a safe bet but he's still a top 10 fantasy talent.

Jason (Charlottesville, VA): I love the Tower of Power Podcast!! Mid Round Risks- Thoughts on Utley, Napoli and Carl Crawford? Do any of these guys in your mind have a chance to earn early round numbers?

Thomas (Cleveland): As a fantasy owner, do the allegations linking Braun and Gio to Biogenesis affect your outlook on them for 2013 and beyond in keeper leagues? Even if Braun doesn't get suspended, do you worry his production could drop with the new blood testing for HGH?

Jason Collette: Not in the slightest. The stuff against Braun was much stronger last year and he went out and put up the same numbers. The cat and mouse game of PEDs and testing will continue as one tries to stay one step of the other.

Jon KK (Elkhart, IN): Jason, what do you foresee happening with Kershaw, Price and Verlander as their current contracts end?

Jason Collette: http://i.imgur.com/Kaaz57F.gif , and I don't see Price as the opening day starter for the 2014 Rays while the other two are likely to stay put.

Mark68 (A Mile High): Which of Casey Kelly, Joe Wieland, Robbie Erlin has the most value for 2013? Long-term? 12-team NL-only Scoresheet league.

Jason Collette: Erlin is my guy there

Matt (Memphis): Re: Hamilton/A-Gonz, why that order? I would think if anything you would want Hamilton now when "healthy" and in a stacked lineup, as opposed to later when his body is far more likely to break down than A-Gonz's.

Jason Collette: the lineup will still be stacked for Hamilton. Looking at it more like Pujols last year where free agent player struggles in first year living up to deal and does better next season, which is what I expect Pujols to do in 2013.

Grubby (Possumjaw, AR): The Professor predicts a 2013 debut for Kevin Gausman. That would be a really fast trip through the minors. I have the #1,2 and 5 pick in our minor league 20 team dynasty draft. Is Gausman worthy of the #5 pick (or higher)?

Jason Collette: Who am I to question him? :) Gausman has the collegiate experience so the quick trip up isn't surprising and I'd definitely take him with one of those picks depending on who is out there.

conjoinedtwins (Toronto): Can you please rank Cobb, Milone, and Letters from Iwajima in order of preference for 2013? thanks!

Jason Collette: Cobb, Iwakuma, Milone for me. Cobb is a high GB% with one of the best defensive infielders in baseball behind him. His one area of concern is struggles pitching with runners on 1st as he's not very quick to the plate.

Slevin (Brooklyn): Who do the Rays send Price to? The Return?

Jason Collette: somewhere out of the division - to the Cubs or Rangers perhaps.

Simmi (Reno): How would you rank these SP over the next 3 seasons: Cain, Hamels, Weaver, Halladay

Jason Collette: Hamels, Cain, Weaver, Halladay.

Chin Music (Vancouver): Should I be really nervous with Chris Perez and Addison Reed as my incumbent closers? thanks! (Target Wilhelmsen instead?)

Jason Collette: I like Reed more than Perez and would rather have Wilhelmesen than Perez

temple (madison): arodys vizcaino was once a top prospect. now that he is back from surgery, do you have knowledge if he is going to be able to fulfill his once promising future?

Jason Collette: I'd rather wait and see with him right now. You should be able to grab him with a very late reserve pick.

Chris (KC): Clarification on Delmon Young: He already HAD microfracture surgery, in November.

Jason Collette: He's still a terrible player and waste of talent.

Dexter (Chicago): Jason- I love me some Towers! What is the timeframe ( on average, or if it happens) for top prospect pitchers to become fantasy relevant? I've traded for a six pack of them (Erlin, Rosenthal, Miller, Biddle, Wheeler, and Teheran) hoping half pan out. Any thoughts? Is this foolish?

Jason Collette: their 2nd season in bigs....of those 6 expect 3-4 of them to fail as those are the odds. If you've never read this piece on success and failure rates, bookmark it: http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

temple (madison): i've been offered uggla and kevin gausman and i give his team gordon beckham and jordan zimmerman? if no to that, what if i countered by asking for delino deshields as an additional player coming from his team

Jason Collette: I want no part of Uggla so Gausman for Beckham/Zimmerman is lopsided. Even if you got DeShields, you're still assuming all of the risk in the deal.

sebjquit (Ann Arbor): Ike Davis? Shot at 40 homers with a bounce back in average - .260 or so?

Jason Collette: Be happy if he repeats 30 HRs. A 21% HR/FB rate was well above his 2010-2011 measure.

Karl (Chicagoland): AL-only, 10-team scoresheet keeper league, not a new league. How much risk in drafting Melky Cabrera early? How much regression in 2013? PECOTA says a ton.

Jason Collette: I wouldn't reach early but I like Melky in Toronto. The park plays well for him and the other parks in the division are set up well for him hitting LH most of the time.

Ernie (Flagstaff, AZ): Jason, What are your thoughts on two very far away catchers in a deep dynasty league. Wyatt Mathisen & Clint Coulter ?

Jason Collette: Below the level of depth that I look at in leagues. I am risk adverse with catchers because of how few pan out for fantasy purposes

Trevor (Cincy): What's your take on Adam Laroche this year? Hitting cleanup in a decent lineup do you think he can put up similar nummbers? He seems pretty underrated.

Jason Collette: look at 2008-2011 for a 2013 baseline rather than what he did last year. .270, 25 HR, 85 RBI

temple (madison): i have tried reasonable offers for bogaerts and gotten nowhere. so i have offered both jordan zimmerman and cameron maybin for bogaerts. maybin is not projected to have a breakout season and I have trout and harper who both qualify in center. i'm offering a marginal player from my team and a good pitch for an extraordinary hitting shortstop. it makes sense to me, but what do you think

Jason Collette: It takes 2 to tango and this person obviously doesn't want to dance. If you keep pressing, you'll overpay. As it is, I'd rather have the known quantities in Zimmerman and Maybin

Frank (Miami): In a standard 5x5 league, do you downgrade Stanton at all, because of the Marlins' off-season's trades and health concerns with LoMo? If so, how much lower?

Jason Collette: I don't. He has the power to hit 40+ homers which means he'll fall into at least 100 runs driven in.

Wesley (Milwaukee): Are you buying or selling Josh Rutledge as a sleeper, think he can go 20/20 or what kind of line do you expect if he remains batting 2nd in that lineup?

Jason Collette: current ADP of 166, went 109 in LABR. Sleeper status won't last much longer. 20/20 is a bit optimistic

Short Shorts (Venice Beach): I'm really on the fence about Eric Hosmer this year, especially if he's hitting 7th (as predicted on some sites). What do you think?

Jason Collette: He's being drafted as a top 100 player and going ahead of Rizzo right now at 1B. I'd rather have Rizzo

CalMcEwen (Fort Worth): Who do you think wins the CF job in Texas and will they have any fantasy value?

Jason Collette: I'm interested in Leonys Martin if he wins it. Gentry has speed but is better off in a reserve role

Dave (Milwaukee): Does Fiers lack of velocity not scare you off at all? Reminds me a little bit of the flukey Josh Collmenter season.

Jason Collette: I'm not scared off. He works the zone well and changes speeds effectively. Collmenter had a horrible April last year but was very effective after that.

Marco (San Diego): I took Grandal late in a draft, he won't be DL eligible obviously because he was suspended, but would be avail for 110 games (less obviously for a catcher). What kind of 5x5 stats would you expect from him?

Jason Collette: so figure 95ish games for him...8-10 homers, 40-45 RBI, .265?

temple (madison): in an AL 12 team auction league with 3 year contracts, near the end i'm picking up marginal players at marginal prices. this year i am thinking of taking some prized MILB players like bundy,zunino, myers. they will start in the minors but be up sometime during the year. and next year i will be sitting pretty; haviong gotten those guys cheap in 2013 in 2014 i will have more money to spend on top guys. we can keep 14 or roster is 25

Jason Collette: You might as well because the talent down in that part of the auction is going to be marginal/replaceable anyhow.

Broken Arrow (Texas): in an NL-only 12 team auction league, roughly how would you value Phillies outfielders? It seems crowded with mediocrity, unknowns and worse with Ben Revere, Delmon Young, Darin Ruf, John Mayberry Jr. Domonic Brown and Lance Nix. Any upside here?

Jason Collette: Revere, Mayberry, Ruf, Brown, 50 feet of crap, Young. In all seriousness, the 1st 2 are the only ones I want to deal with. Ruf went undrafted in LABR which is 29 rounds and 15 teams for a mixed league.

Peter (Chicago): Any love for Evereth Cabrera in a 12 team league with a SS and MI component?

Jason Collette: I'm a fan, have had him 2 straight seasons. Very fast, gets his walks, but needs to cut down on his K's because he strikes out way too much for someone without power.

temple (madison, wi): are you going to pull a professor parks and just keep going and going and going? thanks for the great chat.

Jason Collette: I'm keeping an eye on questions while doing some other writing so I'll go for awhile

Sexy Rexy (At Work): Who are 3-5 guys you are really expecting fantasy breakouts from this year?

Jason Collette: Erasmo Ramirez, Logan Forsythe, Alex Cobb

forlostcauses (Portland): Keeper Question: Kris Medlen or Aroldis Chapman?

Jason Collette: Medlen -- not a fan of taking Chapman out of the pen

Corey (Portland): I'm curious to hear your thoughts on Kris Medlen. Would be hard to maintain his splits, but how high do you rank him among SP's. Thanks for this great chat. Shameless plug for more fantasy baseball chats!

Jason Collette: He's currently ranked 22nd on our list for SP, and that's fine. He's ahead of Kennedy, Beckett, and Champman. He's also ahead of Gallardo in the PFM, but I'd rather have Gallardo.

Shawnykid23 (CT): One break-out hitter and pitcher in each league?

Jason Collette: Alex Cobb & Justin Maxwell ; Marco Estrada/Logan Forsythe

Shawn (My Office): Who's smarter- you or Paul?

Jason Collette: Paul...he was smart enough to move to Austin while I'm stuck in the mouse trap that is Orlando

Dexter (Chicsgo): Jason- Thanks for pointing me to the piece on prospect failure rates. Great read. Now a question on a major league pitcher- Chapman. Closer? Starter? Great starter? Starter to DL?

Jason Collette: I fear the latter situation

The Dude (Everywhere): Which team has the best set-up for playoff contention now, as well as a bright future ahead (has to one of Cards, Rays, Red Sox, right?)

Jason Collette: Texas...has the pieces now and a strong farm system to sustain it.

Craig (Portland, OR): Jason, What do you think Mike Morse's numbers will look like in Seattle ? Any chance of him hitting 30 with the fences coming in ?

Jason Collette: Even with the fences coming in, I think 30 is out of reach for him. Had the fences not come in, I think 20 would have been out of reach

temple (madison): i was thinking about drafting maxwell earlier. he has power, but i looked at his strikeout rate. he cant hit righties. he batted 208 with 84 strikeouts in 212 ABs. can he change all that? what about nolan reimold as a breakout?

Jason Collette: Reimold safer breakout as I like the bat. Maxwell has pop and can run. Even though he struggles vs RH, he can still hit them for pop as he had 14 of his last 16 minor league HRs vs them

Shawnykid23 (CT): Seems to be that Matt Graza and Josh Johnson are pretty under valued this year- agree or disagree?

Jason Collette: Garza has a 199 ADP and went 169 in LABR. Johnson's ADP is 142 and went 129. Given health risks of both, those are fair spots.

Dave (Stl): Any indication of what to expect from Scott Baker this year?

Jason Collette: 2 DL stints, lots of strikes, lots of home runs.

Shawnykid23 (CT): If you could only read one publication/web-site/analyst to prepare for your draft (besides BP, of course) what/who would it be?

Jason Collette: my friends at rjbullpen.com -- very active forum for fantasy advice.

Jason Collette: 3 hours, 95 questions -- it's been fun! Time to get on with the rest of my day and catch the home opener for my UCF baseball Knights