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2019 Preseason Forecast
Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET
|2015-02-16 11:00:00 (link to chat)||How do you judge a quiet off-season like the the one the Orioles have had? Clearly, making moves and spending money can go very wrong when team get's saddled with huge contracts for years down the road, a la A-Rod and Barry Zito. But fans like to see action and big name signings to feel their team is improving. Watching fan favorite Nick Markakis leave town stung. Do you believe the Orioles have been wise in their restraint? Is the philosophy of Baltimore's management sound? |
(rrydelek from Maryland)
|Baltimore is tough to judge because we don't know why they were quiet. Did the Duquette-to-Toronto stuff hamper their activity? Was it just business as usual, except they didn't find a fit until late? Were they held to a tighter budget? Some combination thereof? Without knowing the why, it's hard to say whether it's a good or bad thing.
I do expect that team to slip in the division, but I always seem low on them, so who knows. (R.J. Anderson)
|2013-05-24 14:00:00 (link to chat)||how is the Barry Zito vesting option watch going? |
(KenT from Hollister)
|Zito's back down to 5.63 innings per start; if he makes 32, that gets him to only 180. He's never had 200 inning as a Giant, and this is why. On the bright side, he's been the Giants' second-best starter. Is that the bright side? It says here that it's the bright side but it's so cold and dank on this side. (Sam Miller)|
|2012-12-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Tell me about Barry Zito|
(Ali from England)
|Barry Zito is a left-handed pitcher currently employed by the San Francisco Giants. Cha Cha! (Ian Miller)|
|2012-10-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)||"If the Giants win the World Series this year, it will be because of Barry Zito, and you know what? Maybe itíll have all been worth it (as long as "it" doesn't literally mean "all the money he was paid)."
Does the second good start make this idea more serious?|
(Gavin from County Ct.)
|This is an amazing article topic. I don't know where to begin, and I haven't even sketched out the math yet, so I can't really give you an answer but if we can put a dollar value on a win (as regards WARP and free agency and salaries and such) and the Win, as a concept, is only valuable in as much as it translates to likelihood of winning a world series (and also the auxiliary stuff that comes along with that, revenue and so forth) then surely we could figure out how much extra weight to give to a start in a pennant race, in a division series, in a World Series, in an elimination game.
But to answer your question, it makes it more serious from the standpoint of how Giants fans will remember him, and perhaps how much the Giants front office will kick themselves, than from the sense that it likely gets Zito anywhere close to being worth his contract. Zito has made two good starts and one terrible one this postseason. Even if we just totally ignore the bad one, we're left with 12 innings, one run. So Zito has been worth about, oh, three or four runs. Postseason runs, to be sure. Very valuable, very gutsy runs. But three or four runs. I might guess that these two starts are worth maybe $6 million or so, total, over a typical no. 5 starter. (Sam Miller)
|2012-08-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)||If the Astros were to deal Bud Norris in the off-season, what kind of return might they realistically get? Less than for Gio Gonzalez and Mat Latos, but he's also young, controllable, affordable and has good stuff.|
(Ashitaka1110 from Houston, TX)
|I don't know. In the past three years, he has thrown 465 innings, 2.3 Ks/BB, 1.2 HR/9, 9 Ks/9. In the three seasons before Garza was traded, he had thrown 595 innings, 2.3 Ks/BB, 1.1 HRs/9. And Norris is the same age Garza was. So will teams look at Norris and see that comparison? Or will they see lack of durability, an ERA+ that would make Barry Zito shake his head, and stagnation? I'd guess a little more of the latter, unfortunately for Houston. (Sam Miller)|
|2012-06-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Your three top picks please and reasons: 1) Best non-fiction book on baseball ever written; 2) Best baseball novel, 3) Best movie where baseball is the central theme. Thanks and what special magic does Barry Zito have to make me crazy?|
(Vicmill1 from Kalifornia)
|Excellent question (and hello). 1. Going with the homer pick and saying BP's "Between the Numbers." Totally changed the way I thought about the game. 2. If I can pink DeLillo's "Underworld," which is not strictly a baseball novel, I'll pick that. Top 5 book of all time, in any genre. 3. Eight Men Out.
Watching Barry Zito is an opportunity for all of us to look at how attachment prevents us from reaching enlightenment. (Ian Miller)
|2012-01-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Yu Darvish gets posted, and Team X doesn't want him, but doesn't want any other team to get him either. So Team X bid $75 million bucks and wins the right to negotiate with Darvish's reps. Team X then sits on its hands for 30 days, and Darvish doesn't sign with anyone, and Team X gets its $75 million back.
There is a problem here ... right?|
(dianagram from VORGville)
|Well, I know we've all heard that if the Rangers don't make a significant effort to actually close the deal, and placed their bid just to block Darvish from showing up somewhere else, that they will pay a price with the commissioner, with other MLB teams, with the public, etc.
That said, a lot of what's been said about Texas and Darvish amounts to "well, that's just not done", and sooner or later, someone gets around to doing just about everything that's "just not done" until that point.
I mean, who's to say that Texas hasn't made a Herculean effort but Darvish and his representatives have decided that he's a $126 million pitcher and they won't take a penny less?
I agree with your general point, though--the posting system makes about as much sense as the BCS, and there's got to be a better way to do it. -- Dave (Best of BP with Ben and Dave)
|2011-09-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)||What on earth do the White Sox do with Adam Dunn for the next 3 years?
What on earth do the Yankees do with AJ Burnett for the next 2 years?
What on earth do the Giants do with Barry Zito for the next 2 years?|
(dianagram from NYC)
|The Sox have to give Dunn another shot next season, both out of deference to his consistency in the past and to see whether he magically regained his talent over the offseason as quickly as he magically lost it over the last one. With those other two, though, we're getting pretty close to sunk cost time. (Ben Lindbergh)|
|2011-05-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Can Ryan Vogelsong keep this up? He has to be better than Barry Zito, no?|
(Rob from Alaska)
|I guess I'm not on the Vogelsong bandwagon. I don't see anything is his repetoire that gets me excited. Zito's serviceable; I'd rather have him.
Vogelsong is getting swings and misses with his fastball. I don't see how that continues. It's not particularly fast, it doesn't have unusual movement, and he's not doing an exceptional job of spotting it to the corners like Mo Rivera. He's in a good ballpark, but other than that, nothing about Vogelsong screams "turnaround" to me. (Mike Fast)
|2011-02-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)||I'm thinking if I can trick the Giants into trading me Barry Zito, the pennant will be ours next season!|
(Tony Reagins from Los Angeles)
|Correlation doesn't equal causation, Tony, but hey, it never hurts to add another albatross to your aviary. (Ben Lindbergh)|
|2010-11-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Is Lee really worth $25 million for 6-7 years? Could he wind up being Barry Zito in 3 years? Wouldn't Texas be better off trading for Zach Grienke?|
(mattgabby from NYC)
|Zito never had the control or "stuff" of Lee, and as my main man Matt Swartz always writes, most of the time free agent deals are frontloaded with production. This means that if Lee signs for $25 mil/yr for 6 years, he might exceed that value with production in the first few years and fall short of it at the tail-end, ultimately evening out or coming close to that. Lee is the premiere pitcher in a not-so-otherwise-impressive crop and there will definitely be a bidding war. The discussion of signing Lee vs. trading for Greinke is interesting, and I think this gives me an article idea for next week. I don't know whether the would be better off doing one or the other, as both would represent a big "get". If signing Lee prohibits making improvements in a bunch of other areas, looking for Greinke would be good, but if they can sign him and still upgrade areas in need of improvements, why the heck not? (Eric Seidman)|
|2010-09-30 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Roster construction. I know teams used to go 15 hitters/10 pitchers like it was nothing. In considering it for the Phillies or Yankees playoffs (last year) though, I'm unsure. On the one hand, you have 3 starters who will make most of the starts, so only a 7 man bullpen is necessary, but you're also unlikely to pinch hit for these starters or your hitters, so are the bench players (Bocock, Dobbs) just as useless as the relievers (Baez, Bastardo)|
(Jay from Philly)
|The leverage of the situations in which you would use the last hitters, though, is going to be higher than the leverage of the situations in which you'll use the extra pitchers. It's also easier to get advantages offensively than it is defensively because of the game's rules. I am completely and utterly convinced that postseason roster construction is a massive fail for the industry as a whole.
As an example, the Giants will roster Barry Zito, who has no value in a short series, because he's a veteran with a contract. If the Yankees don't start A.J. Burnett, he should be left off; he won't. There's too much of this, and that's before you get into the decisions made for nominally tactical reasons.
Everyone needs to play Strat. It really does teach you this stuff. (Joe Sheehan)
|2010-05-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Given his performs in the second half last year and the beginning of this season, do you think we can actually start to trust Barry Zito?|
(YD from Philly)
|More important than Barry Zito, I'm listening to The Giraffes now that the Pixies are finished with.
Back to Zito though, he has a 2.45 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and just 0.6 HR/9 since July 18 of last season (121 1/3 innings). I don't think that the ERA is realistic, but he sure seems to be back on track nowadays.
Unrelated, but I just traded Heath Bell and Jason Marquis for David Freese and Mat Latos in a keeper league. I took over someone else's roster, so this year is for rebuilding. I like that return, especially since keeping closers isn't my bag and both of those players are cheap cheap. (Marc Normandin)
|2010-02-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Did the Giants waste the offseason? It seems that every move they made could have been replaced by cheaper free agent alternatives or better in-house solutions. I don't see them improving to the point where they scare the other NL West contenders.|
(Tim from Tampa)
|Here's the thing about the Giants: that division might not be that good, and if everything works on the pitching side, they might (MIGHT) be able to make a run for it. But a lot has to go right. Barry Zito needs to be at least as unobjectionable as he was last year, and the other three (Sanchez, Lincecum, Cain) need to stay healthy.
Also keep in mind, Huff and DeRosa are replacing sinkholes, so they could actually make some progress on the offensive side just with those guys repeating last year's performances. (Shawn Hoffman)
|2009-07-13 14:00:00 (link to chat)||At what point do the Giants cut Barry Zito loose? He's pitched bad baseball for 2.5 years now. $126 million contract or no, don't the Giants have to treat him like any other pitcher and say "Start pitching better or get out"?|
(Jim from Fremont (CA))
|Baseball doesn't work that way, for one. Teams don't eat $80 million. For two, Zito is worth his roster spot, at least for now. A year from now, he might be the Giants' sixth- or seventh-best starter. Then you have an issue. (Joe Sheehan)|
|2008-07-25 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Is Andruw Jones in Dodger blue in the running for "worst contract of all time" or is Barry Zito still head honcho?|
(Joel from GA)
|I'm pretty sure Mike Hampton is the leader in the clubhouse, and will be for some time. (Joe Sheehan)|
|2008-06-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Hi Will, love the chats, thanks!
I've always wondered how much coaches can really help or hurt a player. Take for example Barry Zito and the rumor that the Giants could bring in Rick Peterson as a special assistant to work with Zito. At the end of the day, if Zito can't physically control his pitches or pitch with his old velocity, how much mechanical tinkering is really going to help him?
I guess my long winded question boils down to: Can mechanics be fixed or is it something more akin to a progression of a players skills. |
(Chris from Harrisonburg, VA)
|Good question. The answer is I don't know and neither to the Giants. If Peterson's available (which it would seem he is) and Zito thought it would help, I can't imagine why I wouldn't at least try it. Send Zito to Jersey for a couple weeks and see what happens. (Will Carroll)|
|2008-03-17 12:00:00 (link to chat)||I know that ST # are not that important but Barry Zito's "performance" so far sure raise a eyebrow (if not a full fledge panic train)
(RollingWave from Taiwan)
|the only people that should be panicking are Brain Sabean and Giants fans, they may lose even more game then projected if Zito stinks it up again. He's a pitch or ditch guys at best in a mixed which is amazing to me based on his performance in Oakland back in the day. Pitchers, cant trust em!!!!! (imagine flavor flav saying that) (Mike Siano)|
|2008-01-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)||How good is Christian Friedrich? I have seen some video and he does have a nasty curveball. Are the comparisons to Barry Zito fair, and how big of a concern are his walks?|
(Tom from Atlanta)
|I think Zito is sort of the natural comparison for a guy of Chris' caliber, with that nasty curveball and a solid-average fastball behind. Ted Lilly and Sean Marshall are the others I usually here in that category. But you're right, the key for Chris this year is going to be commanding his fastball and proving that it can be a weapon in the way that Lance Broadway's fastball has never been a weapon behind his curve. I hope to talk to Friedrich on the phone relatively soon, and when I do, you can bet I'll Unfilter it immediately. (Bryan Smith)|
|2008-01-22 19:00:00 (link to chat)||Do you think giving Shields a 5 year contract with 2 team option years is a good idea for the Rays at this time?|
(buddaley from Clearwater)
|While I like the idea of locking up young talent, I don't like long contracts for pitchers, period. I understand that they are a part of the game now and it must be done to land desirable entitites (a tip of the cap to Brian Sabean for raising the bar so stupidly high with the Barry Zito deal), but that doesn't mean I have to like it. With Shields, too, part of me wants to say, "give me another year like that and then we'll get the big pen out." (Jim Baker)|
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