Baseball Prospectus

MLB Statistics

Statistics for All Levels

Plate Discipline

Comparable Players (Similarity Index )

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2014		Lilly's season was once again decimated by injury, an element which defines his Dodger tenure. He got a late start after labrum surgery, then his return was delayed by a strained rib cage. After five forgettable starts in Los Angeles, a neck injury put him on the shelf for 45 days. Lilly was released upon his return, finishing his three-year pact with a total of 264 innings of 3.91-ERA baseball to show for the Dodgers' $33 million. The diminutive lefty retired in November, bringing an end to his 15-year seminar on overcoming mundane velocity through sequencing, strike-throwing and the occasional jam-ball on the hands. We'll always have his epic 2007 NLDS glove-slam.
2013		If anyone needed a reminder of Lilly's advancing age, they got it in 2012 as injuries slowed him down and then wiped out his season. A stiff neck put him behind schedule in spring training and he opened the year on the disabled list. He was outstanding through his first five starts, pitching to a 1.41 ERA, but scuffled through his next three, then went on the DL with shoulder inflammation in late May. He wasn't initially expected to be out long, but his timetable kept getting pushed back until he finally had arthroscopic surgery to clean up his labrum in mid-September. As of November he had begun throwing again, and the hope is that he can reclaim his spot in the rotation for the final year of his three-year, $33 million deal.
2012		Always homer-prone—Lilly's 1.33 HR/9 from 2001-10 was outdone by only three others who threw at least 1,000 innings—he more or less hit that mark again last year, but he was ill-served by his bullpen, which allowed a team-high eight of 17 bequeathed runners to score. His Fair Run Average ranked 11th among NL ERA qualifiers, just ahead of Ian Kennedy and Tim Lincecum, his WARP 29th. If not exactly a bargain, he more than covered the first year of his three-year, $33 million deal, and has delivered roughly the same value for the past four years despite superficially fluctuating ERAs.
2011		Twelve years to the day after being traded to the Expos in a deal for Mark Grudzielanek and Carlos Perez—he'd been a 23rd-round draft pick two years earlier—Lilly returned to the Dodgers in a trade that cost Blake DeWitt and two pitching prospects. With Cliff Lee off the market, he was the best starter available at the deadline despite a 3-8 record borne of weak offensive support (2.7 runs per game). Lilly couldn't revive the Dodgers' playoff hopes on his own, but he made a game effort via 10 quality starts out of 12. Lilly's bad luck on home runs per fly ball after coming over was mitigated by his ability to keep runners off base via a lowered walk rate and an abnormally suppressed BABIP; nine of his 13 homers allowed in Dodger blue were solo shots. In all, he finished with the league's second-lowest walk rate and second-highest home run rate. Diminished velocity (87.4 average fastball speed) may be enough of a concern to make Lilly's backloaded three-year, $33 million deal a risk, but he's a substantial upgrade over Vicente Padilla as the fourth starter.
2010		Often overshadowed by his more famous or exuberant rotation mates, Lilly has quietly become the Cubs’ best starter. His 5.1 SNLVAR paced the 2009 club, as does his total of 15.2 through the first three years of his Cubs career. An extreme fly-ball pitcher prone to the home run, the diminutive lefty has found success in Wrigley by keeping his walks down and his strikeouts up—essentially the Fergie Jenkins plan. Lilly’s fastball never touches 90, but he throws it inside, and by mixing in a slider, a change, and a big looping curve, he can use it to break bats. Off-season shoulder surgery will delay the start of his upcoming walk year beyond Opening Day, but that shouldn’t affect his production, or the entertainment value watching him work provides.
2009		Theodore Roosevelt Lilly might not charge up the hill like his namesake or even Craig Lefferts, but he's an underrated craftsman in a rotation built around more dramatic talents. His tateriffic tendencies and bass-ackwardness makes him someone to handle with care, but halfway through his four-year contract he's given the Cubs 20 quality starts or more in each season. He's not a star, but he's also a lot better than the fourth horseman he rates here. Add in his ability to cut down the running game and help himself out a bit at the plate, and he's an eminently likeable little lefty.
2008		Lilly went from unintentionally walking 9.4 percent of the batters he faced in 2006 to 5.6 percent in 2007. That not only helped his ERA, it allowed his workload to exceed the 200-innings barrier for the first time, since that improved command translated to lower pitch counts. Then again, he did tire a bit down the stretch following a 127-pitch outing in Colorado on August 9 (his ERA for the last quarter of the season was 4.69), and you can expect his walk rate to bounce back a bit. Still, his should prove to be one of the best contracts of signed between the 2006 and 2007 seasons.
2007		People remember Ted Lilly`s run-in with manager John Gibbons, which came in the third inning of the Jays` August 21 home game against the A`s. Lilly was pulled over his objection after he`d given up five runs against one out and still had two men on base. What they might not remember is that the Blue Jays were actually ahead 8-5 at the time, having teed off on Dan Haren. We aren`t lip-readers, and we aren`t privy to the exact words that Lilly and Gibbons exchanged on the mound or in the dugout tunnel, but it doesn`t take a genius to figure that Lilly may have wanted to go five innings to get a win on his resume with his free agency pending at the end of the season. Lilly and Gibbons were able to patch things up to the point at which Lilly strongly considered returning to the Blue Jays this winter before departing for Chicago. At least this sort of thing won`t be a problem with the Cubs, who would never have gotten Lilly eight runs of support to begin with. All kidding aside, the Cubs got one of the better pitching deals of the winter, provided they remember Lilly is a high-pitch-count guy and often needs bullpen help by the sixth or seventh inning.
2006		Lilly`s walk rate increased for the fourth year in a row; throw in higher hit and home run rates, and perhaps most fundamentally, an extended bout of bicep tendinitis, and presto, his ERA ballooned by a run and a half. He should be able to bounce back and provide 160-180 innings of league-average pitching, not a bad output from a fourth or fifth starter. Lilly is going to have to perform well to hold off the crowd of young pitching in the system; if the Jays are out of it by the end of July, he`ll be in demand at the trading deadline.
2005		While he's had back-to-back years that are eerily similar, Lilly might have a bit more improvement in him as he gets older and becomes better at placing his breaking stuff. The mental picture doesn't work, but there are enough skill and statistical similarities to Sid Fernandez, who pitched in much better run environments, that you can get a little excited about Lilly's upside. Fernandez's body broke down right about when he was at his command peak; his last full season was at 29. Lilly is 29 this year, and with just a little improvement in his command, could lop a run off his ERA.
2004		Velocity improved late in the year, as did the movement on his curveball. Lilly's always had good peripheral numbers, all the way back to his time as a farmhand in the Los Angeles and Montreal systems. He's still got a chance to be a front-of-the-rotation guy, but more likely, he spends the balance of his career as a #3 starter. He's always going to have an issue with leaving a meaty hanging curve in the middle of the plate against right-handers; the challenge will be making sure that they're solo shots. Traded to Toronto in a deal that brings Bobby Kielty to Oakland, a good trade for both clubs.
2003		When he came over from the Yankees, Lilly had a sore shoulder (similar to Jason Arnold), and went on the A’s conditioning program. He fought through an inflamed shoulder and some later blister problems, and by and large, he looked pretty good. He’ll start the season as the #4 starter, and he is an excellent candidate to break out and become one of the better pitchers in the league. Good control, good infield defense behind him, major pitchers’ park, and a high, relatively stable K rate. The promise he showed in the Montreal system could manifest itself at any time.
2002		People seem to have completely forgotten about Lilly as a prospect. He's still young, with good strikeout rates and solid control, and his career could develop in a couple of ways. With most clubs, he'd be an effective back-of-the-rotation starter with the potential to improve. With this one, he'll have to wait for an injury.
2000		Lilly would have been up sooner if not for shoulder problems that knocked him out for a few weeks in June and July. He had offseason surgery to repair a slight tear in his shoulder, but they’re saying he’ll be 100% by spring training. While his curveball was named the International League’s best breaking pitch in Baseball America’s tools poll, he’s not just a soft-tosser; he regularly gets his heat up to 93 mph, complementing it with a good change-up. He’s ahead of Armas in the line for the last two rotation spots and should hold one of them for the year.
1999		Boasts a 93-mph fastball, a solid breaking ball, and a nice resume for a 22-year-old. The Perez/Grudzielanek deal could turn out to be grand theft Lasorda. One warning sign: his fastball dropped to around 89 after he arrived in Ottawa, and the Expos were considering sending him to winter ball. If his arm isn't damaged goods, he's a potential star.
1998		Pitched well in a very tough league against some very good hitters. He’ll probably blow through San Antonio this year and Albuquerque in 1999. One California League opponent called him “A young Tom Glavine.” I didn’t know Glavine ever pitched in the California League, but I’d take that as a compliment.

BP Articles

BP Chats

BP Roundtables

PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC

Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2024, Ted Lilly threw 14,363 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2007 and 2013, all of them occuring in Spring Training. In 2013, he relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (88mph) and Change (80mph), also mixing in a Curve (71mph) and Cutter (81mph). He also rarely threw a Sinker (88mph).