Biographical

Portrait of Carson Smith

Carson Smith PRed Sox

Red Sox Player Cards | Red Sox Team Audit | Red Sox Depth Chart

2019 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 29)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
34.0 4.15 1.46 35 2 1 1 0.2
Birth Date10-19-1989
Height6' 6"
Weight215 lbs
Age29 years, 6 months, 4 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
1.92015
-0.12016
0.12017
0.12018
0.22019
proj
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA- WARP
2014 SEA MLB 9 0 8.3 1 0 0 2 3 10 0 90 2.2 3.2 0.0 10.8 81% .125 0.60 1.84 0.00 73 2.57 63.1 0.2
2015 SEA MLB 70 0 70.0 2 5 13 49 22 92 2 97 6.3 2.8 0.3 11.8 66% .292 1.01 2.08 2.31 70 2.45 57.2 1.9
2016 BOS MLB 3 0 2.7 0 0 0 2 1 2 0 115 6.8 3.4 0.0 6.8 75% .250 1.13 2.73 0.00 124 6.73 148.9 -0.1
2017 BOS MLB 8 0 6.7 0 0 1 7 2 7 0 106 9.5 2.7 0.0 9.5 61% .389 1.35 1.93 1.35 75 3.42 72.8 0.1
2018 BOS MLB 18 0 14.3 1 1 0 14 6 18 2 107 8.8 3.8 1.3 11.3 55% .316 1.40 3.75 3.77 94 4.04 90.3 0.1
CareerMLB1080102.0461474341294996.53.00.411.465%.2901.062.302.21752.8665.82.3

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg LG G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA-
2012 HDS A+ CAL 49 0 62.0 5 1 15 54 28 77 2 116 7.8 4.1 0.3 11.2 61% .327 1.32 3.34 2.90 0 0.00 0.0
2012 PER Wnt AFL 11 0 15.0 1 1 0 11 4 18 1 6.6 2.4 0.6 10.8 0% .303 1.00 3.39 2.40 0 0.00 0.0
2013 WTN AA SOU 44 0 50.0 1 3 15 33 17 71 1 101 5.9 3.1 0.2 12.8 72% .294 1.00 1.64 1.80 0 0.00 0.0
2014 SEA MLB AL 9 0 8.3 1 0 0 2 3 10 0 90 2.2 3.2 0.0 10.8 81% .125 0.60 1.84 0.00 73 2.57 63.1
2014 TAC AAA PCL 39 0 43.0 1 3 10 44 13 45 1 88 9.2 2.7 0.2 9.4 70% .352 1.33 2.88 2.93 70 3.44 69.7
2015 SEA MLB AL 70 0 70.0 2 5 13 49 22 92 2 97 6.3 2.8 0.3 11.8 66% .292 1.01 2.08 2.31 70 2.45 57.2
2016 BOS MLB AL 3 0 2.7 0 0 0 2 1 2 0 115 6.8 3.4 0.0 6.8 75% .250 1.13 2.73 0.00 124 6.73 148.9
2016 PME AA EAS 2 0 1.7 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.8 67% .000 0.00 0.95 0.00 56 2.28 50.6
2017 BOS MLB AL 8 0 6.7 0 0 1 7 2 7 0 106 9.5 2.7 0.0 9.5 61% .389 1.35 1.93 1.35 75 3.42 72.8
2017 PME AA EAS 1 1 0.3 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 110 0.0 81.0 0.0 0.0 0% .000 9.00 30.22 54.00 49 1.12 23.5
2017 PAW AAA INT 10 0 8.7 1 1 0 10 3 6 0 10.4 3.1 0.0 6.2 65% .385 1.50 2.98 4.15 105 4.19 89.1
2018 BOS MLB AL 18 0 14.3 1 1 0 14 6 18 2 107 8.8 3.8 1.3 11.3 55% .316 1.40 3.75 3.77 94 4.04 90.3

Plate Discipline

YEAR Pits Zone% Swing% Contact% Z-Swing% O-Swing% Z-Contact% O-Contact% SwStr%
2014 114 0.5614 0.3860 0.7500 0.5469 0.1800 0.8571 0.3333 0.2500
2015 1048 0.5200 0.4074 0.6745 0.5083 0.2982 0.8412 0.3667 0.3255
2016 48 0.5000 0.3542 0.8824 0.5000 0.2083 0.8333 1.0000 0.1176
2017 114 0.5175 0.4035 0.7609 0.5593 0.2364 0.8485 0.5385 0.2391
2018 263 0.4525 0.4106 0.7037 0.4958 0.3403 0.9492 0.4082 0.2963
Career15870.51100.40450.69730.51240.28950.86050.40270.3027

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-08-08 2014-08-17 Minors 9 0 - Not Disclosed -
2014-06-09 2014-06-16 Minors 7 0 - Not Disclosed -
2014-04-21 2014-05-17 Minors 26 0 - Not Disclosed - -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2019 BOS $
2018 BOS $850,000
2017 BOS $556,750
2016 BOS $529,000
2015 SEA $509,500
2014 SEA $
YearsDescriptionSalary
4 yrPrevious$2,445,250
4 yrTotal$2,445,250

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
4 y 28 dISE Baseball1 year (2019)

Details
  • 1 year (2019). Re-signed by Boston 12/30/18 (minor-league contract).
  • 1 year/$0.85M (2018). Re-signed by Boston 1/8/18 (avoided arbitration). Sent outright to Triple-A by Boston 11/1/18 (refused assignment, elected free agency).
  • 1 year (2017). Re-signed by Boston 3/17.
  • 1 year/$0.529M (2016). Re-signed by Boston 3/2/16.
  • 1 year/$0.5095M (2015). Re-signed by Seattle 3/15. Acquired by Boston in trade from Seattle 12/7/15.
  • 1 year (2014). Contract selected by Seattle 9/1/14.
  • Drafted by Seattle 2011 (8-241) (Texas State). $0.215M signing bonus.

2019 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA DRA VORP WARP
90o 3 1.4 1.4 55 0 51.7 38 22 53 4 .255 1.15 2.75 3.11 10.7 1.2
80o 2.5 1.1 1.2 48 0 45.4 36 21 47 4 .271 1.25 3.14 3.53 7.4 0.8
70o 2.2 1 1 44 0 40.9 34 20 42 4 .283 1.33 3.43 3.84 5.3 0.6
60o 2 0.9 0.9 40 0 37.3 33 19 38 3 .293 1.40 3.68 4.12 3.7 0.4
50o 1.8 0.7 0.8 36 0 33.9 31 18 35 3 .303 1.46 3.92 4.38 2.4 0.3
40o 1.6 0.6 0.7 33 0 30.6 30 17 32 3 .312 1.53 4.16 4.64 1.3 0.1
30o 1.4 0.5 0.6 29 0 27.3 28 16 28 3 .323 1.60 4.42 4.93 0.3 0.0
20o 1.2 0.4 0.5 25 0 23.4 25 15 24 3 .335 1.70 4.74 5.27 -0.6 -0.1
10o 0.9 0.3 0.4 19 0 18.3 21 12 19 2 .351 1.83 5.19 5.76 -1.4 -0.2
Weighted Mean1.80.70.835033.23018343.3001.443.884.332.60.3

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA DRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
20203031152049462752549.3071.494.234.468.45.09.60.90.3
20213121148045412548549.2981.464.364.608.15.09.51.00.2
20223221145042392344449.3041.484.264.508.44.99.40.90.3
20233321144041392242549.3011.484.424.678.54.89.11.10.2
20243421139037352039449.3061.504.404.648.64.99.61.00.2
20253521138036341938449.3071.474.414.658.54.89.51.00.2
20263621136034331835449.3061.504.444.698.74.89.31.10.1
20273721134032311833449.3081.524.464.718.65.09.21.10.1
20283821134032301732449.3081.484.504.758.54.89.11.10.1

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 73)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 90 Ryan Cook 2016 0.00 DNP
2 86 Hunter Strickland 2018 4.96
3 85 A.J. Ramos 2016 2.95
4 85 Steve Cishek 2015 4.23
5 83 Andrew Bailey 2013 3.77
6 83 Justin Wilson 2017 3.57
7 82 Zach Putnam 2017 1.04
8 81 Nick Vincent 2016 3.88
9 81 Kevin Quackenbush 2018 11.00
10 80 Jeremy Jeffress 2017 4.82
11 79 Michael Gonzalez 2007 1.59
12 78 Jared Burton 2010 0.00
13 78 Evan Meek 2012 6.75
14 78 Bobby Jenks 2010 4.78
15 78 Luke Gregerson 2013 3.26
16 77 Pedro Strop 2014 2.80
17 77 Jake McGee 2016 4.93
18 76 Matt Lindstrom 2009 6.65
19 76 Bobby Parnell 2014 9.00
20 75 Frank Francisco 2009 3.83
21 75 Drew Storen 2017 5.27
22 75 Brandon League 2012 3.38
23 75 Craig Breslow 2010 3.13
24 75 Tony Watson 2014 1.86
25 75 Ryan Pressly 2018 2.66
26 75 Jason Frasor 2007 4.58
27 75 Bryan Shaw 2017 4.23
28 75 Aaron Loup 2017 4.21
29 74 Jake Diekman 2016 3.74
30 74 Hector Rondon 2017 4.71
31 74 Rob Murphy 1989 3.34
32 73 Juan Rincon 2008 6.34
33 73 Fernando Salas 2014 3.38
34 73 Jose Arredondo 2013 0.00 DNP
35 73 Jonathan Broxton 2013 4.99
36 73 Miguel Socolovich 2016 2.00
37 73 Peter Moylan 2008 1.59
38 73 Mitch Stetter 2010 14.73
39 73 Brandon Kintzler 2014 3.55
40 73 Sean Doolittle 2016 3.23
41 73 Sparky Lyle 1974 2.53
42 73 Jerry Blevins 2013 3.45
43 72 Al Alburquerque 2015 4.35
44 72 Luis Garcia 2016 6.46
45 72 Bryan Morris 2016 3.57
46 72 Kevin Jepsen 2014 2.63
47 72 Jesse Orosco 1986 2.67
48 72 Dan Jennings 2016 2.67
49 72 Cory Rasmus 2017 0.00 DNP
50 72 Blake Parker 2014 5.57
51 72 Jose Valverde 2007 2.94
52 71 Doug Corbett 1982 5.24
53 71 Addison Reed 2018 4.82
54 71 Bill Bray 2012 5.19
55 71 Alex Colome 2018 3.44
56 71 Logan Ondrusek 2014 5.71
57 71 Pedro Baez 2017 3.38
58 71 Fernando Rodney 2006 4.52
59 71 Sam Freeman 2016 12.91
60 71 Dan Wheeler 2007 5.79
61 71 Duane Ward 1993 2.13
62 71 Felix Rodriguez 2002 4.30
63 71 Mark Melancon 2014 1.90
64 70 Robbie Ross 2018 0.00 DNP
65 70 Darren O'Day 2012 2.28
66 70 Derrick Turnbow 2007 4.76
67 70 Justin De Fratus 2017 0.00 DNP
68 70 Sean Burnett 2012 2.54
69 70 Spencer Patton 2017 0.00 DNP
70 70 Will Ohman 2007 4.95
71 70 Justin Duchscherer 2007 4.96
72 70 Justin Miller 2016 5.70
73 70 Neftali Feliz 2017 6.46
74 70 Mariano Rivera 1999 1.96
75 70 Dave Righetti 1988 3.62
76 70 Scot Shields 2005 3.24
77 70 Josh Schmidt 2012 0.00 DNP
78 70 Vinnie Pestano 2014 3.86
79 70 John Axford 2012 5.45
80 70 Duaner Sanchez 2009 9.00
81 70 Greg McMichael 1996 3.84
82 69 Buddy Boshers 2017 5.14
83 69 Javy Guerra 2015 0.00
84 69 Brian Wilson 2011 3.27
85 69 Adam Warren 2017 2.98
86 69 C.J. Wilson 2010 3.66
87 69 Jim Johnson 2012 2.75
88 69 Jose Alvarez 2018 2.86
89 69 Jeff Bennett 2009 5.21
90 69 Michael Wuertz 2008 4.63
91 69 Josh Roenicke 2012 4.06
92 69 Scott Linebrink 2006 3.69
93 69 Royce Ring 2010 15.43
94 69 Chad Qualls 2008 3.54
95 69 Javier Lopez 2007 3.54
96 68 Josh Osich 2018 8.25
97 68 Ryan Speier 2009 4.76
98 68 Tim Burke 1988 4.06
99 68 Brandon Medders 2009 3.41
100 68 Alex Torres 2017 0.00 DNP

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2019  Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018 Life is all about how you spin things, ya know? Smith nearly tripled his MLB workload for the Red Sox last season. He struck out 26 percent of the batters he faced. He was even on the postseason roster! I mean sure, Smith didn’t make it back from his Tommy John recovery until September 5, and yeah, he wasn’t very good in October. But why’d you have to bring all that stuff up, you buzzkill? The most important thing is Smith looked like himself down the stretch, and that means he should be in position to help build the bridge to Craig Kimbrel in 2018. At the very least he has a head start on Tyler Thornburg.
2017 If the 2016 Red Sox were a jigsaw puzzle, Smith was the border piece that fell onto the floor and ended up under your couch; everything looked fine from afar, but you knew it was somehow incomplete. The Smart Guy Baseball Community has come so far around on relievers that when Dave Dombrowski traded World's Most Boring Starter Wade Miley for Smith (and Roenis Elias) last offseason, most people praised Boston despite their spotty rotation. Unfortunately, no one knew at the time that Smith's right UCL had just four professional innings remaining, and his stop-and-start season came to an abrupt end in late May. Assuming all goes well with his Tommy John recovery, Smith should establish himself in a late-inning role with the Sox during the second half of this season. Then again, Smith is a 27-year-old reliever with one full season under his belt, and you know what happens when you assume...
2016 How bullpens change: A year ago, the Mariners seemed so stocked at reliever that Smith earned only a lineout in this book, his talent almost an extravagance. Then, 2015. After Fernando Rodney threw himself out of a job and with every other member of the staff scuffling, manager Lloyd McClendon turned to to Smith on June 6th. For a while, he ran with the job, but a dip in velocity combined with some command issues pushed him back into a lower profile role. When he's on, he dominates with a 91-93 mph fastball that can play up to 95 and a hard slider that is difficult to make contact against. His velocity and results rallied in September, and he enters this season as the best seventh-inning pitcher in baseball.
2015 As if the Mariners needed another good reliever, Carson Smith showed up in September and knocked them all down. They'll lock him back in the cloning facility until the time comes.
2014 Yet another addition to the Mariners' stable of hard-throwing relievers, Carson Smith touches 97 with the fastball and is moving toward a future as a set-up man.

BP Articles

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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2015-07-16 20:00:00 (link to chat)George, Thanks for the chat!! What's the story with Carson Smith?? Does he have the stuff to be our closer??
(Sam from Seattle)
Why did you trade Carter Capps? Seriously, I love that guy. I was at Fenway when he came into the game for the Marlins to face Xander with the bases loaded a few weeks back and I lost it. People around me were looking at me funny wondering why I was so excited until they saw him pitch. So...Carson Smith...Yes he can close it's that simple. Rodney is done no matter what you have to figure at the end of the year so long-term, he's the guy. I liked Dominic Leone last year, but he just completely lost it. (George Bissell)


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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

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