Baseball Prospectus

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Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 73)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	Run Average	Trend
1	90	Ryan Cook	2016	0.00	DNP
2	86	Hunter Strickland	2018	4.96
3	85	A.J. Ramos	2016	2.95
4	85	Steve Cishek	2015	4.23
5	83	Andrew Bailey	2013	3.77
6	83	Justin Wilson	2017	3.57
7	82	Zach Putnam	2017	1.04
8	81	Nick Vincent	2016	3.88
9	81	Kevin Quackenbush	2018	11.00
10	80	Jeremy Jeffress	2017	4.82
11	79	Michael Gonzalez	2007	1.59
12	78	Jared Burton	2010	0.00
13	78	Evan Meek	2012	6.75
14	78	Bobby Jenks	2010	4.78
15	78	Luke Gregerson	2013	3.26
16	77	Pedro Strop	2014	2.80
17	77	Jake McGee	2016	4.93
18	76	Matt Lindstrom	2009	6.65
19	76	Bobby Parnell	2014	9.00
20	75	Frank Francisco	2009	3.83
21	75	Drew Storen	2017	5.27
22	75	Brandon League	2012	3.38
23	75	Craig Breslow	2010	3.13
24	75	Tony Watson	2014	1.86
25	75	Ryan Pressly	2018	2.66
26	75	Jason Frasor	2007	4.58
27	75	Bryan Shaw	2017	4.23
28	75	Aaron Loup	2017	4.21
29	74	Jake Diekman	2016	3.74
30	74	Hector Rondon	2017	4.71
31	74	Rob Murphy	1989	3.34
32	73	Juan Rincon	2008	6.34
33	73	Fernando Salas	2014	3.38
34	73	Jose Arredondo	2013	0.00	DNP
35	73	Jonathan Broxton	2013	4.99
36	73	Miguel Socolovich	2016	2.00
37	73	Peter Moylan	2008	1.59
38	73	Mitch Stetter	2010	14.73
39	73	Brandon Kintzler	2014	3.55
40	73	Sean Doolittle	2016	3.23
41	73	Sparky Lyle	1974	2.53
42	73	Jerry Blevins	2013	3.45
43	72	Al Alburquerque	2015	4.35
44	72	Luis Garcia	2016	6.46
45	72	Bryan Morris	2016	3.57
46	72	Kevin Jepsen	2014	2.63
47	72	Jesse Orosco	1986	2.67
48	72	Dan Jennings	2016	2.67
49	72	Cory Rasmus	2017	0.00	DNP
50	72	Blake Parker	2014	5.57
51	72	Jose Valverde	2007	2.94
52	71	Doug Corbett	1982	5.24
53	71	Addison Reed	2018	4.82
54	71	Bill Bray	2012	5.19
55	71	Alex Colome	2018	3.44
56	71	Logan Ondrusek	2014	5.71
57	71	Pedro Baez	2017	3.38
58	71	Fernando Rodney	2006	4.52
59	71	Sam Freeman	2016	12.91
60	71	Dan Wheeler	2007	5.79
61	71	Duane Ward	1993	2.13
62	71	Felix Rodriguez	2002	4.30
63	71	Mark Melancon	2014	1.90
64	70	Robbie Ross	2018	0.00	DNP
65	70	Darren O'Day	2012	2.28
66	70	Derrick Turnbow	2007	4.76
67	70	Justin De Fratus	2017	0.00	DNP
68	70	Sean Burnett	2012	2.54
69	70	Spencer Patton	2017	0.00	DNP
70	70	Will Ohman	2007	4.95
71	70	Justin Duchscherer	2007	4.96
72	70	Justin Miller	2016	5.70
73	70	Neftali Feliz	2017	6.46
74	70	Mariano Rivera	1999	1.96
75	70	Dave Righetti	1988	3.62
76	70	Scot Shields	2005	3.24
77	70	Josh Schmidt	2012	0.00	DNP
78	70	Vinnie Pestano	2014	3.86
79	70	John Axford	2012	5.45
80	70	Duaner Sanchez	2009	9.00
81	70	Greg McMichael	1996	3.84
82	69	Buddy Boshers	2017	5.14
83	69	Javy Guerra	2015	0.00
84	69	Brian Wilson	2011	3.27
85	69	Adam Warren	2017	2.98
86	69	C.J. Wilson	2010	3.66
87	69	Jim Johnson	2012	2.75
88	69	Jose Alvarez	2018	2.86
89	69	Jeff Bennett	2009	5.21
90	69	Michael Wuertz	2008	4.63
91	69	Josh Roenicke	2012	4.06
92	69	Scott Linebrink	2006	3.69
93	69	Royce Ring	2010	15.43
94	69	Chad Qualls	2008	3.54
95	69	Javier Lopez	2007	3.54
96	68	Josh Osich	2018	8.25
97	68	Ryan Speier	2009	4.76
98	68	Tim Burke	1988	4.06
99	68	Brandon Medders	2009	3.41
100	68	Alex Torres	2017	0.00	DNP

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		Life is all about how you spin things, ya know? Smith nearly tripled his MLB workload for the Red Sox last season. He struck out 26 percent of the batters he faced. He was even on the postseason roster! I mean sure, Smith didn’t make it back from his Tommy John recovery until September 5, and yeah, he wasn’t very good in October. But why’d you have to bring all that stuff up, you buzzkill? The most important thing is Smith looked like himself down the stretch, and that means he should be in position to help build the bridge to Craig Kimbrel in 2018. At the very least he has a head start on Tyler Thornburg.
2017		If the 2016 Red Sox were a jigsaw puzzle, Smith was the border piece that fell onto the floor and ended up under your couch; everything looked fine from afar, but you knew it was somehow incomplete. The Smart Guy Baseball Community has come so far around on relievers that when Dave Dombrowski traded World's Most Boring Starter Wade Miley for Smith (and Roenis Elias) last offseason, most people praised Boston despite their spotty rotation. Unfortunately, no one knew at the time that Smith's right UCL had just four professional innings remaining, and his stop-and-start season came to an abrupt end in late May. Assuming all goes well with his Tommy John recovery, Smith should establish himself in a late-inning role with the Sox during the second half of this season. Then again, Smith is a 27-year-old reliever with one full season under his belt, and you know what happens when you assume...
2016		How bullpens change: A year ago, the Mariners seemed so stocked at reliever that Smith earned only a lineout in this book, his talent almost an extravagance. Then, 2015. After Fernando Rodney threw himself out of a job and with every other member of the staff scuffling, manager Lloyd McClendon turned to to Smith on June 6th. For a while, he ran with the job, but a dip in velocity combined with some command issues pushed him back into a lower profile role. When he's on, he dominates with a 91-93 mph fastball that can play up to 95 and a hard slider that is difficult to make contact against. His velocity and results rallied in September, and he enters this season as the best seventh-inning pitcher in baseball.
2015		As if the Mariners needed another good reliever, Carson Smith showed up in September and knocked them all down. They'll lock him back in the cloning facility until the time comes.
2014		Yet another addition to the Mariners' stable of hard-throwing relievers, Carson Smith touches 97 with the fastball and is moving toward a future as a set-up man.

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