Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET
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Definition of multi-year splits
|2017-11-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Apparently the Mets are willing to move Gsellman, Lugo or Montero in the right deal. What value do these guys have? Could one be the center of a trade for these 2Bs we are seeing rumors about?|
(TJ from NJ)
|I mean, would you trade for Rafael Montero? He is out of options and has a career 5.38 ERA and a K:BB ratio under 2.
Gsellman you are selling low on, but given the little kerfluffle between him and Alderson at the end of last season, I guess I wouldn't be shocked. Not sure Lugo could pass a medical for a trade right now. Also, the Mets don't seem to be interested in the SP market and if you deal one or more of those guys you are placing a pretty big bet on Harvey and Wheeler which seems unwise. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
|2016-09-07 19:00:00 (link to chat)||Mets seem to have a bunch of these middle-back of rotation pitchers: Montero, Gsellman, Lugo and Ynoa. Specifically, Lugo and Gsellman have looked the best and have each shown at least one (with potential for another) plus offspeed offering to pair with above verage fastballs. Just from the eye test (and statcast in Lugo's case), these guys look like middle of the rotation starters. Is it possible that coming up in a Mets farm with flaming throwing, ace-level prospects has caused these guys to be overlooked. If they were in, say the Marlins or Orioles orgs, would we have been hearing about them a little more. Furthermore, do you see any of those 4 guys having a career in an MLB rotation, and where in the rotation? Thanks Jarrett, I know that's a lengthy one.
BTW-love the podcasts with you and Jeff|
(Jared from Queens)
|So Gsellman and Lugo didn't look like their major league versions as prospects. The velocity has jumped rather significantly, and held over full starts. In Gsellman's case, the slider went from nonexistent to a work-in-progress to a major league plus pitch. I'm planning on addressing this *next* week for BP Mets, but I think the real question is how to handle that the majority of Mets pitching prospects seem to come up with extra velocity and magic new pitches over the minor league reports. They're maximizing nearly everyone. Except Rafael Montero for whatever reason.
Gsellman or Ynoa might've gotten a little more hype in another organization, I guess. (Jarrett Seidler)
|2016-09-07 19:00:00 (link to chat)||Do you think Rafael Montero can be a successful MLB reliever?|
(Rachel from Foxboro)
|Montero hasn't yet seen the velocity or command bump you'd hope for in relief. I've got no idea what he is moving forward at this point, honestly. He's the one guy that the Mets clearly haven't gotten everything out of. (Jarrett Seidler)|
|2016-08-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Is Rafael Montero totally finished? The fellow has completely fallen off the map it seems.|
(Brian from Penn Station Hell District)
|Vegas just breaks non-elite pitching prospects (and some elite pitching prospects). Ynoa could be a half-run to a run better per nine in the majors and I wouldn't be shocked. That said, Montero was always a tough fit without even an average breaking ball, and he just isn't going to get called up to pitch for a Collins-led team (if you want to talk about guys the org doesn't love...). (Jeffrey Paternostro)|
|2016-03-09 19:00:00 (link to chat)||Which players do you still irrationally believe in that has not met expectations during there career yet? |
(sdsuphilip from San Diego)
|I like players who were overhyped and now the pendulum has swung too far the other way. Brett Lawrie is a good example. Nick Castellanos is someone I believe could still be decent. It's harder on the pitching side, but I really want to believe in Rafael Montero, even though he's a complete mess at the moment. (Mike Gianella)|
|2014-09-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Can you please throw out a few SP with expected near-term ETAs but mid-rotation upside a la Matt Wisler? Bigger names/higher upside guys are already rostered and looking for some draft targets. Thanks.|
(JoJo from SD)
|How about: Kingham, Marco Gonzales, Eduardo Rodriguez, Rafael Montero, Robbie Ray, Luke Jackson, Jake Thompson (Craig Goldstein)|
|2014-08-19 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Do you think Rafael Montero is part of the Mets' rotation in 2015? How well does his success in the minors translate to the bigs?|
(T from Shea)
|I think it's very possible towards the middle of the year. I think his utility of his pitches and ability to work the strike zone work to his advantage. How does Harvey, Wheeler, Noah, Montero, DeGrom sound? (CJ Wittmann)|
|2014-07-29 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Thanks for the chat, Noah! Three of my top dudes -- Taijuan Walker, Eddie Butler and Rafael Montero -- going into the season have all been terrible to varying degrees. How confident are you in each three righting the ship and living up to their preseason expectations of ace, solid #2 and solid #3, respectively?|
(Brian from NYC)
|I guess out of those three players and projections, I'd feel best about Butler becoming a #2. The numbers might be iffy, but I like his stuff. If he can keep that sinking fastball down, he'll be alright. I'd be most concerned about Montero right now. He seems raw in that he's hardly used his secondary stuff thus far. (Noah Woodward)|
|2014-07-31 19:30:00 (link to chat)||I have two for you Ben...
1) just now far has Rafael Montero buried himself in the Mets organization? Has deGrom's emergence almost sealed his fate?
2) Now that the Cubs have acquired Addison Russell, is either he, Javier Baez, or Kris Bryant trade bait? Is there a way for all three, as well as Arismendy Alcantara to remain in the Cubs future lineup?
Thanks, and it's awesome to see your continued success in the field you love. Congrats|
(Andy Singleton (@PeoplezPen) from Brooklyn, NY)
|Montero certainly isn't done, no. He has higher upside than deGrom in the long run, and injury/attrition always present opportunities for pitchers. Bryant at 3B, Russell at SS, Baez at 2B and Alcantara in CF with Castro the odd man out is one way to get that done. Could also move Castro to 3B and put Bryant in LF and keep them all. Thanks for the kind words! (Ben Carsley)|
|2014-06-16 13:00:00 (link to chat)||I know you saw Gabriel Ynoa on one of his lesser outings - what can you tell us about him? Rafael Montero 2.0?|
(Dave from Queens)
|Different type of pitcher, but I guess you could say that in that they both project to be 3/4 starters with good control. (Jeff Moore)|
|2014-04-16 19:00:00 (link to chat)||Will Rafael Montero be called up anytime soon? Do you see him being a solid fantasy pitcher especially in an 18 team league?|
(msimotes from Kalamazoo)
|Probably not until later in the season, and yes, he will certainly be relevant in a league of that size. No. 3 MLB starter, No. 4/5 fantasy guy at his peak. (Ben Carsley)|
|2014-04-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Rafael Montero plus X = Joc Peterson. What is X, and shouldn't the Mets and Dodgers try to make this happen?|
(Rob from Parts Unknown)
|Prospect for prospect trades don't happen because prospects are volatile commodities and neither side wants to be the side that trades away the star. When teams trade away a prospect for a veteran, they at least know what they're getting back. You an argue that they gave up too much, but rarely does the team getting the veteran end up with nothing. In a prospect for prospect trade, that's a possibility and no one wants to be that GM.
That said, Montero and Pederson are similar levels of prospects, so I'm not sure why you'd need another piece. The reason it won't happen is because trading away pitching depth is about the dumbest thing anyone could ever do. Matt Harvey is still injured right? You could give me the top 10 pitching prospects in baseball in my farm system and I wouldn't trade one of them away before they got to the majors. (Jeff Moore)
|2014-04-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Which prospects are at the top end of the scale when it comes to locating their pitches?|
(Gary from Irvine, CA)
|The guys that came up the most during our off-season Top Tools (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22959) discussion were Kyle Hendriks, Dylan Bundy, Ty Blach, Justin Nicolino, Rafael Montero, Marucs Stroman, and Noah Syndergaard. (Mark Anderson)|
|2014-03-19 20:00:00 (link to chat)||Eddie Butler or Rafael Montero for 2014? and then for future?|
(Daniel from TX)
|I'd take Butler for both. Montero has a better park, but Butler's stuff is a notch above. (Bret Sayre)|
|2014-01-27 13:00:00 (link to chat)||How close was Rafael Montero to making the list?|
(izzy2112 from New York)
|Was on an initial draft. Like 25 other prospects, he has a case for inclusion on the back-half of the list. (Jason Parks on the Top 101 Prospects)|
|2014-01-29 19:00:00 (link to chat)||What do you see in prospects Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero of the Mets? How will they fair in an up and coming rotation that already has an ace in Matt Harvey and a young stud in Dan Wheeler? Will the Mets have the best starting rotation in the NL East in the next couple of years?|
(Eric R. from North Carolina)
|Matt Harvey > Zack Wheeler > Noah Syndergaard > Rafael Montero >>> Dan Wheeler (Ben Carsley)|
|2014-01-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Noah Syndergaard is obviously the cream of the Mets pitching crop in the minors but what do you think of Rafael Montero?|
(Jason from NY)
|Montero is a nice prospect. He probably unfairly gets grouped in with the Harvey/Wheeler/Syndergaard conversation because he is on a similar timetable to the majors as those three, but he's a notch below. Back end starter, which is nothing to sneeze at. (Jeff Moore)|
|2013-11-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)||How many Mets prospects are in the discussion for the top 100 Propsects ranking? And one player in the mets system that hasn't gotten the hype that Syndergaard and d'Arnaud did, but could be equally as successful?|
(MetsFaithful5 from Upstate NY)
|D'Arnaud and Syndergaard are Top 100 locks for me. There's probably a case to be made for someone like Rafael Montero, but I'm not sure I'm there with the argument yet. I don't think Dominic Smith cracks that level quite yet, but I do think he's the guy that could be the next big thing in that system. (Mark Anderson)|
|2013-11-22 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Wheeler or Syndergaard? (You might as well give your thoughts on Rafael Montero too)|
(Trevor from New York)
|It's close between Wheeler and Syndergaard. Synder has better repetition and stability as well as the superior physical profile, while Wheeler does better on the scale for power grades on the mechanics report card. Pitchers tend to improve on Wheeler's specific weaknesses more often than those of Syndergaard, but I feel that Syndergaard is actually an easier fix from a coaching standpoint. Tough call, but give me the guy who is already succeeding at the highest level.
Montero is definitely behind the other two, and his more-extreme combination of high-level power and rough stability could be a ticking time bomb. He's fine into foots trike, but his delivery falls apart once the rotational elements kick into gear, and I would personally leave him in the bullpen until he learns to contain his delivery.
On the jukebox: Zamfir, "The Lonely Shepherd" (Doug Thorburn)
|2013-11-22 14:00:00 (link to chat)||What do you think of Rafael Montero's stuff and ceiling? Do you think his mechanics overshadow his size and allow him to pitch 200 innings?
On the jukebox: Beach Boys, "Surfer Girl"|
(Brian from California)
|This question just fits too perfectly (Arroyo thanks you for the jukebox nod). As you may have gathered from the Wheeler/Synder question, I think that Montero's mechanics are a big problem. The blatant over-the-top might overcome the height restrictions of his size, but his delivery is definitely not built for a big workload. Besides, I would prefer that a pitcher have extension at release point rather than downhill plane (which is often overrated) - and such egregious spine-tilt actually robs him of that extension. We had a saying at the NPA: "Every one inch of inappropriate head movement costs two inches at release point." I wouldn't make a trade-off of distance for height at 1:1, and definitely not at 2:1.
On the jukebox: Dredg, "Tanbark" (Doug Thorburn)
|2013-10-07 18:00:00 (link to chat)||List 5 hitters and pitchers that you feel could be breakout players in 2014. Thanks for the chat, Mike!|
(Brett from The Office)
Hitters: Christian Yelich, Billy Hamilton, Oscar Taveras, Avisail Garcia, Josmil Pinto.
Pitchers: Jameson Taillon, Rafael Montero, Drew Smyly, Jimmy Nelson, Taijuan Walker. (Mike Gianella)
|2013-05-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Does Noah Syndergaard have "Ace" potential? Is Rafael Montero a Top 100 prospect in baseball?|
(Sean from NY)
|You should ask this to one of our prospect guys in the chat because those tiers "ace" or "top 100" etc. aren't really my lingo. I'd be very happy about both guys' seasons, especially Montero's strikeouts as he made a really big jump in the level of hitters he was facing at AA/AAA compared to high A. (Zachary Levine)|
|2013-05-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Can Rafael Montero's secondary pitches project to plus with some more refinement? His change up has good fade and the breaking pitches are heavy.|
(Sean from NY)
|Looked amazing so far. It seemed to be his change that needed the work. I'd reach out to our prospect team to see what's driving his early success. He's someone I like, but it's not my wheelhouse to check out low level prospects in-season. Nor have I read any reports to date. (Paul Sporer)|
|2013-04-30 12:00:00 (link to chat)||Is Rafael Montero a future #3 and do you think he will be in NY before the end of the summer?|
(Goose from Chicago)
|I haven't seen Montero for myself but the scouting reports suggest he can possibly be a No. 3 starter. The Mets have plenty of reason to take things slow with their young arms so I'd guess fall or 2014 is a more likely ETA. (R.J. Anderson)|
|2013-04-04 11:00:00 (link to chat)||Long-term ceiling for Rafael Montero? Is he a prospect that could move up the rankings in 2013?|
(Goose from Chicago)
|Absolutely. He has something. (Jason Parks)|
|2013-04-04 11:00:00 (link to chat)||Could an argument be made that Rafael Montero could be the 2nd best arm in the Mets system?|
(Mike from Utica, NY)
|Well, I wouldn't put him above Syndergaard, so no, I don't think I could make that argument. I can see the case that he's right behind Wheeler/Syndergaard, though. (Jason Parks)|
|2012-04-03 12:00:00 (link to chat)||Who are under the rader prospects Mets fans should keep a eye on this coming season ?
(Harry from Nyc)
|Domingo Tapia and Rafael Montero. Both guys have a chance to emerge as our next group of top tier potential ML starting pitchers. They both have power stuff (Tapia routinely touched 100 mph last summer), and both pound the strike zone. (Paul DePodesta)|
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