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Portrait of Jon Gray

Jon Gray P  

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2018 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 26)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
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Birth Date11-5-1991
Height6' 4"
Weight235 lbs
Age26 years, 11 months, 12 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
2014
-0.62015
1.62016
2.52017
4.32018
+proj
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA- WARP
2015 COL MLB 9 9 40.7 0 2 0 52 14 40 4 .268 112 11.5 3.1 0.9 8.9 46% .384 .290 1.62 3.65 5.53 118 6.39 149.4 -0.6
2016 COL MLB 29 29 168.0 10 10 0 153 59 185 18 .262 109 8.2 3.2 1.0 9.9 45% .309 .247 1.26 3.64 4.61 98 4.52 100.1 1.6
2017 COL MLB 20 20 110.3 10 4 0 113 30 112 10 .267 102 9.2 2.4 0.8 9.1 49% .336 .250 1.30 3.19 3.67 85 3.51 74.7 2.5
2018 COL MLB 31 31 172.3 12 9 0 180 52 183 27 .259 112 9.4 2.7 1.4 9.6 49% .323 .260 1.35 4.04 5.12 96 4.45 99.4 1.7
CareerMLB8989491.33225049815552059.2631099.12.81.19.547%.327.2561.333.684.65964.4298.25.2

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA-
2013 MOD A+ 5 5 24.0 4 0 0 10 6 36 0 .284 93 3.8 2.2 0.0 13.5 50% .227 .137 0.67 1.51 0.75 0 0.00 0.0
2013 GJR Rk 4 4 13.3 0 0 0 15 2 15 0 .276 105 10.1 1.4 0.0 10.1 38% .385 .258 1.27 2.50 4.05 0 0.00 0.0
2014 TUL AA 24 24 124.3 10 5 0 107 41 113 10 .257 95 7.7 3.0 0.7 8.2 40% .285 .246 1.19 3.43 3.91 103 3.78 78.3
2015 COL MLB 9 9 40.7 0 2 0 52 14 40 4 .268 112 11.5 3.1 0.9 8.9 46% .384 .290 1.62 3.65 5.53 118 6.39 149.4
2015 ABQ AAA 21 20 114.3 6 6 0 129 41 110 9 .265 118 10.2 3.2 0.7 8.7 44% .350 .260 1.49 3.87 4.33 96 3.89 83.9
2016 COL MLB 29 29 168.0 10 10 0 153 59 185 18 .262 109 8.2 3.2 1.0 9.9 45% .309 .247 1.26 3.64 4.61 98 4.52 100.1
2016 MOD A+ 2 2 8.7 0 1 0 8 3 11 0 .293 87 8.3 3.1 0.0 11.4 45% .364 .281 1.27 2.20 2.08 0 0.00 0.0
2017 COL MLB 20 20 110.3 10 4 0 113 30 112 10 .267 102 9.2 2.4 0.8 9.1 49% .336 .250 1.30 3.19 3.67 85 3.51 74.7
2017 LNC A+ 1 1 4.0 0 0 0 4 1 5 0 .259 141 9.0 2.2 0.0 11.2 67% .444 .186 1.25 2.16 0.00 0 0.00 0.0
2017 ABQ AAA 2 2 9.3 0 0 0 10 5 13 2 .252 106 9.6 4.8 1.9 12.5 48% .348 .322 1.61 5.32 1.93 0 0.00 0.0
2018 COL MLB 31 31 172.3 12 9 0 180 52 183 27 .259 112 9.4 2.7 1.4 9.6 49% .323 .260 1.35 4.04 5.12 96 4.45 99.4
2018 ABQ AAA 2 2 10.7 1 0 0 7 4 13 1 .256 122 5.9 3.4 0.8 11.0 63% .231 .199 1.03 3.65 3.38 85 3.29 70.8

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2015 673 0.5245 0.4591 0.7670 0.6289 0.2719 0.8649 0.5172 0.2330
2016 2782 0.4863 0.4817 0.7306 0.6548 0.3177 0.8454 0.5066 0.2694
2017 1835 0.5193 0.4371 0.7731 0.5614 0.3027 0.8617 0.5955 0.2269
2018 2797 0.4987 0.4523 0.7067 0.6108 0.2946 0.8275 0.4576 0.2933
Career80870.50130.45950.7350.61620.30250.84450.51070.265

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-08-21 - Minors - - - General Medical Fatigue -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2018 COL $555,000
2017 COL $540,000
2016 COL $509,500
2015 COL $
YearsDescriptionSalary
2 yrPrevious$1,049,500
2018Current$555,000
3 yrPvs + Cur$1,604,500
3 yrTotal$1,604,500

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
2 y 62 dCAA Sports1 year/$0.555M (2018)

Details
  • 1 year/$0.555M (2018). Re-signed by Colorado 3/18.
  • 1 year (2017). Re-signed by Colorado 3/17.
  • 1 year/$0.5095M (2016). Re-signed by Colorado 3/16.
  • 1 year (2015). Contract selected by Colorado 8/4/15.
  • Drafted by Colorado 2013 (1-3) (University of Oklahoma). $4.8M signing bonus ($5.6264M slot).

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Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .245 .310 .391 .245
11 vs R (Multi) .259 .337 .404 .258
18 Split (Multi) -.015 -.027 -.013 -.014
19 LgAvg (Multi) .006 .020 .015 .013
30 vs L (2016) .239 .303 .391 .243
31 vs R (2016) .248 .332 .380 .250
38 Split (2016) -.009 -.030 .012 -.008
39 LgAvg (2016) .003 .018 .013 .012

Definition of multi-year splits

BP Annual Player Comments

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BP Articles

Click here to see articles tagged with Jon Gray

BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2018-07-10 20:00:00 (link to chat)How do you handle Jon Gray in a dynasty format? Thanks!
(coffeeguy8806 from Chicago)
Don't sell. I own Gray in my home dynasty and you have to trust he's going to get back to form. I trust he can still be the guy who came back from injury last year and pitched 98 innings of 3.58 ERA ball with a good 19.6 K-BB%. (Eddy Almaguer)
2018-06-20 19:00:00 (link to chat)who are your best buy low hitters and pitchers ROS?
(Frank from Brooklyn)
Manuel Margot, Gary Sanchez and Brian Dozier for hitters. Jon Gray, Luke Weaver and Yu Darvish on the pitching side. (Mike Gianella)
2018-06-20 19:00:00 (link to chat)What should we consider Jon Gray at this stage? is he only a high K pitcher who will murder your ratios? or is he getting the horrible end of the luck spectrum?
(Chansen8895 from San Jose)
Some bad luck, but he looks like a different pitcher with men on base. I'd bet on a rebound in the second half but he isn't going to be the elite arm I thought he'd be. (Mike Gianella)
2018-06-20 19:00:00 (link to chat)Can you name some guys you think are good buy low candidates in dynasty. Hoskins, Conforto, L Castillo, etc?
(Hobbs from NY Knights)
Manuel Margot, Jon Gray, Scott Kingery. (Mike Gianella)
2018-04-27 12:00:00 (link to chat)How good can Jon Gray be this year? 15-10 with a 3.6 ERA? realistic?
(Dalton from Randy)
Yeah I guess. Betting on ERA on Colorado pitchers is a rough one though. He'd have to go 13-6 with a low 3 ERA to get their now though. Samples aren't significant yet, but they can bring the overall line down. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2018-04-16 14:00:00 (link to chat)Is this just who Jon Gray is?
(Keith from Crystal Lake)
Yes, but it's not bad exactly. He's this guy and the results will fluctuate at times. The peripherals tell us he's the same guy he was last year. (Scott Delp)
2018-04-23 20:00:00 (link to chat)Is this just who Jon Gray is? Many pundits who work for this site talked him up this Offseason as a breakout candidate.
(Keith from Charlotte)
He's been one of the unluckiest pitchers is baseball this year. He's not this bad. Don't forget his great stretch last season. (Eddy Almaguer)
2018-02-06 15:00:00 (link to chat)After selling at the deadline last season, I have a lot of keeper options to sort through. I am in a standard 12-team mixed-league 5x5 roto league with a $260 budget, but we use OBP instead of AVG and SV + 1/2 H instead of just saves. We can keep 5 MLB players; the first year without a price increase, in subsequent years price goes up $10 each year. We can also keep one minor leaguer (I have both Mejia and Acuna and could burn an MLB slot on one of them if I want) I have the following possible keepers: Nomar Mazara $11 Justin Turner $9 Gio Gonzalez $4 Jerad Eickhoff $2 Jon Gray $2 Julio Teheran $2 Orlando Arcia $2 Joey Gallo $1 Rafael Devers $1 Rhys Hoskins $1 Travis Shaw $1 Francisco Mejia $1 Ronald Acuna $1 Which 6 would you keep?
(bmmcmahon from Los Angeles)
As much as I think he's the safest bet here, I'm tempted to throw back Turner just based the on the savings and your quantity of $1 options. I'll say Turner, Gallo, Devers, Hoskins, Shaw, Acuna, but I wouldn't blame you for saving the money on Turner and keeping Gray instead. (Darius Austin)
2018-01-31 14:00:00 (link to chat)With the "live" ball era in full bloom it has become harder to find difference making starting pitchers. Outside of the icons we all know of do you have any breakout candiates which could become difference making pitchers. ----Away from the 4 plus eras thanks
(steve from wisconsin)
I *love* Aaron Nola. I think he's going to have a huge year. Jon Gray too. And Dinelson Lamet as a deeper option. (Mark Barry)
2017-04-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Any particular favorites as far as podcast guests you've talked to while off the air?
(GJomes from Winner's Circle)
That's a good question. Off air, no one has been more helpful to this podcast than former BP author R.J. Anderson. He's been incredibly encouraging of the project, and helped connect me with a number of guests. I can't say enough good things about R.J. If you haven't listened to my episode with him you should. If only to hear about his dreams of ghost hunting with Jon Gray. (Eric Roseberry)
2017-02-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)Pitching sleepers/breakouts for this year? If possible, geared to points leagues?
(chrispetersen15 from IA)
I'll give you a few deeper late-round mixed options: Garrett Richards, Robert Gsellman, Jharel Cotton and Zach Davies.
As far as "breakouts" go that's a broad term. Starters that I like better than the consensus: Julio Urias, Marcus Stroman, Jon Gray, James Paxton (is so obvious it's painful), and Frankie Liriano. I'm probably forgetting someone...Oh. Draft Rich Hill... (George Bissell)
2016-12-01 19:00:00 (link to chat)In a 16 team H2H dynasty league with a fairly old pitching staff. I have the opportunity to deal my Jon Gray, Joe Ross, and Carl Edwards for Justin Verlander and the 12th pick in our rookie draft. Too much to give up for the aging ace?
(Alex from Charm City)
It's a little pricey for me but it's not crazy. You lose that trade if Gray eventually winds up somewhere besides Colorado, but you're trading a Coors starter, Ross - who has been OK - and a future reliever for Verlander and the pick. I'd try to squeeze a little more out of your opponent. (Mike Gianella)
2016-06-09 19:00:00 (link to chat)Do the Rockies still have a reputation of only drafting a certain... "type" of player or has that not been true for a while?
(Infrancoeurgible from Down and Away )
I could argue in 2015 that they were in the drivers seat, they were going to be happy with whichever SS they got.

Before that they've tried polished college arms (Christian Friedrich, Eddie Butler, Tyler Anderson, Jon Gray), projectable HS arms (Peter Tago, Tyler Matzek, Ryan Castellani, Ryan Warner) with more misses than hits. So I don't think they have a reputation of drafting just certain types of players. -Steve Givarz (Live Draft Chat)
2016-02-25 12:00:00 (link to chat)Do you believe Jon Gray can be a #2 or #3, and is there any reason to believe he can tame Coors field?
(Ricardo from NY)
The fastball velocity is down, the command was below-average in the majors. That is a bad combination at Coors and most other places. We know there can be more in there, but he was also a pop-up velo guy when he got drafted. That doesn't always last, and plenty of pitchers never throw as hard as they did in college anyway. I like the slider a lot, and the change will flash. You want to keep that frame/body in the rotation, but if he is a #4, I wonder if you don't try to max him out as a relief arm. The problem is the Rockies need starters badly, and they just traded for McGee. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2016-01-29 11:00:00 (link to chat)What do you think is the reason so many impact pitching prospects have seen significant reductions on their stuff at such an early age without suffering an injury? I'm thinking Mark Appel, Archie Bradley, Jon Gray, even Julio Teheran.
(Duffman from Cali)
Some if it adapting to throwing every fifth day rather than once a week (for the college guys). Some of it is just that some guys are at their best when they're younger and have a faster rate of attrition. Sometimes it's developmental tweaks that don't work out. Not sure there's any specific cause there. (Top 101 Chat with Craig Goldstein)
2015-03-12 15:00:00 (link to chat)Best comment in the annual?
(Mo Betta from Hoodhaven)
I actually haven't read much of the book yet because of school. The Moises Sierra one is an all-timer. Adam Sobsey (who I shared the Jays chapter with, quite intimidating writing next to him) wrote Matt Boyd with the perfect changeup metaphor. Of the ones I wrote (not that you asked): Jonathan Gray, LaTroy Hawkins. (Andrew Koo)
2014-10-09 15:00:00 (link to chat)what should my expectations be next year for rockies SP Jonathan Gray and Eddie Butler?
(nbraun from DC)
Hopefully the Rockies let them go out of the gate. Both pitchers are immensely talented and have impact-type stuff. Gray moreso than Butler, as I think he can be a TOTR guy in fairly short order. Butler's stuff has regressed a bit, but I really like the profile, and assuming they are asked to miss bats, each has the chance to be a rotation stalwart. (Jordan Gorosh)
2014-07-24 19:00:00 (link to chat)I know Jonathan Gray is a monster with 2 + pitches, but what grade would his change need to be considered to have ace stuff? What is it currently?
(Tim Couch from Cleveland)
It'd have to be elite, and it's average/fringe average right now from what I've heard. It's ok, the Rockies have him working on stuff it sounds like. I think he's going to be just fine. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-07-03 19:00:00 (link to chat)Just traded the hype machine Mookie Betts in my 24 team dynasty league for Jonathan Gray, you like?
(bigwhitesled from Seattle)
I like that. All respect to Mookie but I think Gray returns more value. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-04-09 19:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Mauricio, Two weeks in and already not looking good. How would you rank the following SP adds for a dynasty league: Bradley, J. Gray, Stephenson, Bundy, Giolito, Gausman, Sanchez and Urias?
(Cal Guy from Cal)
Giolito Gray - Bradley - Gausman Stephenson Urias Bundy

I'm signing up for the Jonathan Gray newsletter with Ben. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-03-21 14:00:00 (link to chat)This is the second chat of yours in a row where I have sensed that your personal opinion of Jonathan Gray is lower than the scouting community's. Is this true, and would you elaborate, if so?
(Tremaine from City )
Well, I've only had two chats! My personal opinion may reflect that because I'm cautious in having strong opinions on players I haven't seen (or talked to people in the game about), even if that opinion is the consensus. (Ronit Shah)
2014-02-26 19:00:00 (link to chat)How much does Jonathan Gray's parent club affect your MLB expectations for him? Can he be a fantasy ace in Colorado?
(Gotribe31 from DC)
Not too much, actually. I believe in the profile. I think he's going to be a frontline starter. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-02-26 19:00:00 (link to chat)Really appreciate the chat! Who are some guys you would target after the first 15 or so picks in a rookie draft(that includes international players). I have picks 17 and 18. Would you try to package them together to move up a bit? Thanks
(Mill from Lodi)
Assuming you mean rookie draft as in new signees to an established dynasty league I think outside of the top 6 guys:

Kris Bryant, Jose Abreu, Masahiro Tanaka, Clint Frazier, Jonathan Gray, Mark Appel

it gets really clogged in the middle. I would trade the lower picks to get into the top 6 because you're talking about guys like Colin Moran and Austin Meadows down there. It's ok, but not ideal. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-02-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)I had a chance to trade Salazar for the no. 4 pick in the draft (where I would have taken Jonathan Gray assuming he was available). I chose to hang onto Salazar. Will I regret this?
(Mike from Boston)
Nah. Both have crazy upside, stick with the guy already doing it. (Paul Sporer)
2014-02-28 14:00:00 (link to chat)Who are some minor league arms with fastballs too good to ignore...like Robert Stephenson?
(Chris from Baltimore)
Jonathan Gray, Yordano Ventura, Lucas Giolito, Noah Syndergaard, Alex Meyer ... I am big on Kyle Zimmer's fastball, which only loses deception when he ratchets down the momentum in his delivery, resulting in lesser depth at release point and poor command. It's an 8 when he lines up the gears. (Doug Thorburn)
2014-02-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is there any prospect who probably won't be on an Opening Day roster, that you would target in a draft for a non-keeper league. I had Trout in 2012 and Puig last year, and I'm looking for someone to stash that could make an impact this year at some point. Thanks
(Brian from CT)
Jonathan Gray. Springer. Kris Bryant. (Sam Miller)
2014-02-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)Dynasty league 5th pick overall in a vacuum: Kris Bryant, Jose Abreu, Jonathan Gray, Mark Appel. Please rank since 1 or more might go before me. Thanks!
(uvasuperman from Atlanta)
Bryant, Gray, Appel, Abreu. I hate fantasy pitchers from Colorado and first baseman. (Jeff Moore)
2014-01-21 18:00:00 (link to chat)At the 1-3 pick in my dynasty draft, Buxton and one of A. Bradley and Tanaka are off he board. I'm looking at Baez, Giolito, Bryant, Correa, and J. Gray. Who do you take? Why? How would you rank them? (Reference: I pick 1-3, and 1-6 due to trades; one of the picks in between mine would be Abreu and one of Baez/Correa (in that order)). Thanks!
(AJ from Phoenix)
Hi AJ.

The order might be different from a pure prospect perspective, but I'd go Javier Baez, Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, Jonathan Gray, and Lucas Giolito. While Correa could wind up being a better baseball player than Baez, Baez's power tool is ridiculous and from a purely offensive standpoint (read fantasy) he has the higher ceiling. Correa's pretty damn good too, though, and I anticipate a power spike this year in the minors. His raw numbers don't look great, but he was an 18-year-old at Quad Cities. I'm impressed. Bryant's great too, but you're asking me to rank him against two amazing prospects. Gray and Giolito go behind the hitters just because I have a bias toward hitters when it comes to prospects in fantasy. I'll go Gray because Giolito had the TJ. He should be fine, and it's entirely possible that I'll flip these two if someone on BP's great scouting team comes back with a positive review on him in spring training. (Mike Gianella)
2014-01-21 18:00:00 (link to chat)Appel or gray?
(andy from frozen tundra )
Jonathan Gray over Mark Appel, though it's really close and if you went the other way I wouldn't blame you. (Mike Gianella)
2014-01-17 10:00:00 (link to chat)Lightning round question: Marcus Stroman or Jonathan Gray?
(summerdays from Boston)
Gray (Jason Parks)
2014-01-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)In a fantasy league where you control players until they accrue 6 years of service time, would you draft Sonny Gray or Kris Bryant? Just safer to go with the hitter?
(Dennis from LA)
Just clearing this out of the queue, but the answer is directly above with Dennis's correction to Jonathan Gray. (Paul Sporer)
2014-01-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Sorry, Paul, for my previous question, I meant to ask Jonathan Gray (not Sonny) vs. Kris Bryant.
(Dennis from LA)
Bryant! Not just bc he's the safer hitter, but just has a much higher fantasy ceiling. (Paul Sporer)
2014-01-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)Jonathan Gray or Lucas Giolito - who has the better career?
(Sagar from Chicago)
Giolito. (Jeff Moore)
2014-01-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)I have 3 top picks in the 1st round of my upcoming draft. In a vaccum, which 3 would you take for a 18 keeper league and in which order? Tanaka, Lucas Giolito, Clint Frazier, Jonathan Gray, Jose Abreu, Rougund Odor, Rymer Lirano, or Mark Appel?
(vegetto712 from Florida)
From a prospect perspective, your top three there are Giolito, Gray and Appel. (Mark Anderson)
2014-01-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)With my first round pick in our prospect draft, I'm eying a pitcher. Archie Bradley, Masahiro Tanaka, Jonathan Gray, Mark Appel, Noah Syndergaard, Lucas Giolito, and Robert Stephenson are all still on the board. Which 2 or 3 are on your shortlist, and who do you pick & why? Thanks for the chat!
(Sara from Tacoma)
Oh man that's fun agonizing at the same time. Bradley/Giolito are my top two. Tanaka is probably my third because he'll pitch in the majors so soon. It depends on your team's timetable. If you're contending sooner, Bradley. If you can wait (because of depth or because you're bad) go with Giolito. (Craig Goldstein)
2014-01-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)Jonathan Gray is the next ______ and will debut _____?
(OG Mudbone from BangBus)
Your location is of great concern to me. (Craig Goldstein)
2013-12-10 18:00:00 (link to chat)Between Archie Bradley, Noah Syndergaard, and Jonathan Gray, how would you rank their ceilings/fantasy upside? ETAs? Bonus: For how long will we have to deal with 50 shades puns based on Gray's name (Sonny's as well... who also gets the "It's always sunny" puns).
(Jonah from Redwood)
Hi Jonah:

I would probably rank them in the order that you have them ranked, with Bradley and Syndergaard very close and Gray a little bit behind. Both Bradley and Syndergaard have ace potential, with Bradley a tick more likely to be that ace with Synergaard falling in as a #2. Gray looks more like a #2 to me, which certainly isn't shabby; I just don't see him as that #1 stud.

The puns are up to the masses. I didn't even think of the 50 shades of Gray thing, and as far as Sonny Gray goes I didn't see the It's Always Sunny comparison either. If anything saves us here from the puns, it's that the A's aren't high profile. (Mike Gianella)
2013-12-03 13:00:00 (link to chat)Archie Bradley or Jonathan Gray, and why?
(Jonah from Redwood)
For fantasy purposes? Gray will be in the majors sooner, albeit in a worse park for pitchers. Can't go wrong either way. (R.J. Anderson)
2013-12-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)Would you still take Jonathan Gray over Appel?
(Adam from TX)
Yes. I'd give Gray the ceiling and Appel the floor. (Jason Parks)
2013-12-20 14:00:00 (link to chat)In a dynasty draft, trying to decide who to take with my pick. Provided both are still there, how would you compare/contrast Archie Bradley and Jonathan Gray? Ceilings, mechanics, floor, arsenal, risk, etc? Who would you want, why?
(Francois from Toronto)
Bradley and Gray make for a very interesting comparison. They both have plus-plus fastballs and excellent breaking pitches, while the change-up is still a work in progress for both pitchers. They both carry the rare combination of great posture paired with a high arm slot due to naturally-elevated levels of shoulder abduction, traits that make coaches and scouts happy. Bradley has had some issues with controlling the strike zone, but such is to be expected from high school arms. Gray might be behind on the minor league ladder yet ahead on the development curve due to his college pedigree and having been recently drafted. This is a really tough call, and they might reach the majors around the same time. Give me Bradley for now, since he is more of a known commodity at the pro level, but I could change my mind within the next 6 months. (Doug Thorburn)
2013-12-20 14:00:00 (link to chat)Thanks for the chat, Doug. I find your pitching insights very interesting. I feel a little guilty that all I can do is ask selfish fantasy questions, but which do you see reaching their potential: Mark Appel, Jonathan Gray, or perhaps Julio Urias?
(Mr. Beef from Chicago)
No guilt necessary, Mr. Beef - I'm a huge fan of the fantasy game.

Your question is a good one, as these are three VERY different pitchers. Appel is most likely to reach his potential, because he is almost there already. He has a very high floor, but I feel that his ceiling is limited (he lives in a small room). I think that Gray has the most upside of the group, and he doesn't have too big of a hill to climb in order to get there. Urias might have the greatest potential in theory, given his age and right-now stuff (and left-handedness), but he also has the longest distance to go before reaching ceiling, and I think that he will need some refinement of his breaking ball in order to approach Gray's ultimate potential. But Urias' change-up is sick.

Oh, and how many times in one chat can I make a reference to climbing mountains and hills in order to reach a ceiling? I need to come up with some new phrases, or perhaps find an indoor mountain to climb.

On the jukebox: Rage Against the Machine, "Know Your Enemy" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-11-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)I've got a minor league draft for a keeper league coming up, and I know I'll be choosing between Jonathan Gray, Kohl Stewart, Eddie Butler, Garin Cecchini, Clint Frazier, Tyler Glasnow. My team is in a win over the next 2-3 years type mode, which of the 6 do you prefer, or if it is close between a few guys, why? Thanks!
(TommyC from Illinois)
Frazier. Love me some Clint Frazier. (Bret Sayre)
2013-11-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)How concerned are you about Jonathan Gray and Eddie Butler pitching in Coors? Both have power stuff, and Butler's change should negate a lot of the platoon advantage, but I'm still worried about any pitcher in that park. Do either look like top-20 fantasy SP given the park they'll pitch in?
(TommyC from Illinois)
Mildly concerned. It's going to be a challenge for sure, but both guys are talented enough to overcome it. In reality, it's extremely difficult for a pitcher in Coors (barring another humidor change) to be a top-20 pitcher for fantasy purposes. (Bret Sayre)
2013-11-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Per the mid-season Top 50, the top 10 Starting Pitching propects in baseball (that are still prospect eligible) were: Archie Bradley, Kevin Gausman, Taijuan Walker, Jameson Taillon, Dylan Bundy, Mark Appel, Robert Stephenson, Carlos Martinez, Noah Syndergaard, and Aaron Sanchez. What would an updated list look like? I assume Jonathan Gray would be somewhere in the middle of the pack, no?
(Jonah from Redwood)
I think there are some slight differences that you'd see here. Globally speaking, I think everyone recognizes that Noah Syndergaard has vaulted himself higher up a list of this nature. Speaking personally, I have always been on the lower end with my Dylan Bundy projections and I would push him down the list some. Gray would be in the mix toward the back of this pack for me, and that's not a slight against him, I just don't believe he is quite on par with some of the other names in this group. (Mark Anderson)
2013-11-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)A realistic ceiling and MLB eta for Jonathan Gray would be ________?
(Mitch from Boulder)
I think you're looking at a 2015 ETA, but I wouldn't rule out him arriving for a taste late next year. With respect to ceiling, if it all comes together, I think he's a really good #2. (Mark Anderson)
2013-11-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Can you compare and contrast Gausman, Zimmer, and Gray?
(Paul from Baltimore)
A true compare/contrast of those three would require some pretty extensive prose. That said, I think Gausman and Gray are on a different level in this conversation. Zimmer is a good pitcher, but he comes up decidedly behind those two for me. I'm partial to Gausman and have been slow to board the Jonathan Gray train, so I always give the slight edge to Gausman in these type of comparisons. (Mark Anderson)
2013-10-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)Have you had a chance to watch Jonathan Gray? Any preliminary thoughts, or whispers from other scouts?
(Levi from Kansas)
luckily his short season club is in the MiLB.tv package, so I saw a few games. I can see why the opinions on the guy range from Ace to Reliever. Amazing power, big body, a little bit of clean-up to do in his delivery ... my stance is watch him for another year, see if he remains healthy and if he can get guys out in the higher levels of the minors. (Harry Pavlidis)
2013-07-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)Re: Jonathan Gray. How does what you say about liking his mechanics mesh with what other scouts said about his "stiff front leg" perhaps relegating him to the bullpen? Are you just looking for different things?
(Seth from SF)
It is all about how we judge specific elements such as that stiff landing leg, as well as looking at and emphasizing different aspects. I do prefer to see more flex in the front knee from foot strike into release point, rather than a stiff front leg, but it is not nearly such a big issue as to relegate him to the bullpen. Justin Verlander has always had a very stiff landing leg, yet he seems to do just fine in the starting rotation. (Doug Thorburn)
2013-06-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)When reading on Jonathan Gray, I was struck by the phrase: "[L]ow starting point on list because of questions about future role." I have only ever heard of him being a starter, and one with frontline potential at that. Were you suggesting he has a future role in the bullpen, or did I misinterpret that?
(Sara from Tacoma)
It's possible. I know several scouts that didn't like his mechanical profile, his pop-up velocity, and his overall approach to pitching, and put the bullpen label on him. The game changes at the pro level, though. Evaluation to be re-examined (Jason Parks on the Midseason Top 50 Prospects)
2013-06-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)Am I sensing sarcasm in Carlos Rodon at 1? But would you put the lefty with nasty fastball/slider combo ahead of Mark Appel or Jonathan Gray?
(mikeyurk from CT)
Yes. If in the same draft, I would prefer Rodon to both Appel and Gray. (Jason Parks on the Midseason Top 50 Prospects)
2013-05-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is it a given that either Mark Appel or Jonathan Gray go first overall to the Astros?
(BobcatBaseball from Athens, OH)
No. If it's a guarantee in the scouting community that whoever doesn't go first goes second, then they can't play them like they played Carlos Correa last year. That situation worked because if Correa wasn't going first, he was going much later, so they could get him to sign well under slot, knowing it would be more than he'd get in the late top 10.

I have no knowledge that they'd do that again, but if they want to go under slot early and over slot late like last year, you'd want more of a darkhorse. The Houston beat guys, Brian McTaggart and Brian Smith, have mentioned several other options, and how much of Jim Crane reportedly scouting Moran was a decoy or whatever, I'm not sure. (Zachary Levine)
2013-04-04 11:00:00 (link to chat)Prof, I know you're not an amateur guy (in any sense), but I hear that Jonathan Gray of Oklahoma could go 1-1. Saw some video clips: big guy, quick arm, short stride, stiff landing leg. What have you seen or heard? Thanks.
(CyMature from WesternMass)
I've read several reports, talked to several scouts that have seen him in person, and watched him on video. Jason Cole will be watching him tomorrow and will write up a full report for BP. There is a lot to like with the kid, but if I had to bet, I'd bet that Appel goes 1:1. (Jason Parks)
2013-03-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Nick, was wondering if you've seen Jonathan Gray yet and what you thought of him? I read about the UCLA coaches comparing him to Cole and was curious if the comp holds any weight for you? Also, is the conditioning a major concern?
(Matt from NJ)
I've seen two of Gray's starts via HD game tape, but not in person yet. The plan was to see him against Oklahoma St., but it looks like I might have a newborn on my hands almost that exact weekend, so I am going to see what alternate plans I can make (maybe in tournament play later on). If you aren't already, follow Jason Cole (@LoneStarDugout) on twitter, who is a member of the BP Prospect Team and will be seeing Gray live against Baylor in the coming weeks.

As for the Cole comp, it isn't appropriate. Both throw hard and have good sliders, but Cole's changeup was well ahead of where Gray currently sits, and Cole also mixed a cut variation on his slider for a different look. I might go along with Junior Gray is on par with Sophomore Cole, but even that isn't really great. The biggest concern evaluators will have with Gray is figuring out how much of the new look is long term sustainable, which means lots of peaks between now and draft day. (Nick Faleris)
2013-03-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)Which team does Jonathan Gray go to?
(Tim from Toronto)
Right now, somewhere in the Top 10, and maybe ultimately in the Top5. It's early-1st Round stuff and even though the command lags behind the control, there's a lot to work with. He throws with some effort, and the jump in stuff is relatively new, so evaluators are still left to figure out exactly what the ultimate profile looks like. (Nick Faleris)


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