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Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 76)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	83	Marvin Benard	1997	69
2	82	Willy Taveras	2008	64
3	81	Jermaine Allensworth	1998	83
4	81	Carlos Gomez	2012	94
5	81	Michael Bourn	2009	84
6	81	Billy Hamilton	2017	66
7	80	Billy North	1974	96
8	80	Jacoby Ellsbury	2010	70
9	80	Brett Butler	1983	94
10	80	Roger Cedeno	2001	81

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BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		DeShields put up a nice bounce-back season in 2017. After a year that saw his offense collapse in a part-time role, he found his stride again with consistent playing time spread over left and center field. He saw his speed play on the basepaths, and more importantly, in his defense. He’s still not a completely natural route runner, and he can make mistakes, but the speed covers for a lot of it and he’s rounded into acceptable form. General manager Jon Daniels has said the 25-year-old will likely be the Rangers' starter in center field. That now feels risky, rather than crazy. You could say he drew a Delino in the sand. That he’s DeShields that guard the realms of men. You could say that. Literally no one is stopping you. Freedom is a burden.
2017		With the arrival of last-minute center fielder Ian Desmond on Leap Day, the surprising 2015 starter DeShields was surprisingly back on the bench.. The speedy outfielder did manage to make an appearance in 74 games, mostly in center, which is more in line with what a first-place team might envision.. The two steps forward he took in sticking after the Rule 5 draft last season bottomed out in his sophomore season, as his plate discipline cratered. When you couple that with the questionable defense and nonexistent power he's always had, he'd be wise to keep a bag marked "Round Rock" packed and in his locker at all times.
2016		Entering 2015, conventional wisdom said that Rule 5 pick DeShields might stick with the Rangers as a fourth outfielder/pinch-running type, assuming that he stuck at all. Conventional wisdom didn't foresee Leonys Martin cratering and forcing the Rangers to push Son of DeShields into an every-day role in center field. It certainly didn't see it working. DeShields got on base at an acceptable clip and provided the Rangers with table-setting speed at the top of the order. His defense was far from optimal, or optimized, but the move back to center field from second base comes with a learning curve, especially in spacious Arlington. There is a chance he sticks as a starter, but there is a fine line between players like Dee Gordon and players like Eric Young Jr.
2015		DeShields Senior—Dad, if you will—hit .250/.376/.379 while posting a 21 percent strikeout rate and averaging 0.4 stolen bases per game over his minor-league career. DeShields Junior—Son—has hit .267/.362/.396 with a 20 percent strikeout rate while swiping 0.5 bags per game in the Astros system. Son had his issues in Double-A—his contact rate slipped and too many fly balls led to weak BABIP—but this is the same tremendous athlete who swiped 101 bags back in 2012, when he challenged Billy Hamilton for the crown. The Rangers took him in the Rule 5 draft and he could stick as a utility type with starter upside; he has the tools and burgeoning skills to be a major leaguer. If he winds up back with the Astros, he might have to settle for being one of baseball's most gifted fourth outfielders.
2014		DeShields is the opposite of Carlos Correa in many ways. Correa is quite tall; DeShields is Nick Punto�s height. Correa has all-time makeup; DeShields is suspect, especially on the field. Correa has a plus glove and cannon arm; DeShields' own rate as below average. As a result of the glove and arm differences, the two play at opposite sides of the middle infield. (For now, anyway. With Jose Altuve�s contract extension, DeShields began his training for center field in the Arizona Fall League. The team hopes his 80 run will, uh, speed up the learning curve.) Correa has massive power potential; DeShields may intermittently reach double-digit homers at the highest level. In the end, DeShields only has two legitimate tools (hit, run) while Correa flashes sixes and sevens all around his scouting reports. Naturally, their slash lines last year were nearly identical.
2013		Beware the illusory success of players repeating a level and having good seasons, but be excited about the 2012 DeShields had. His father (�Bop�) had a .375 on-base percentage and 42 steals as a 21-year-old rookie second baseman. Lil Bop's speedy conversion to the keystone (from center field), and equally speedy baserunning suggest he could see similar success. Junior has the short, powerful physique of the running back he was in high school. He already shows the base-stealing savvy to convert his impact speed into more baserunning runs than his father�who stole 463 bases�did. He also has the strength to tally double-digit homers in his prime. Lancaster should inflate his stats early this year, which could mean he'll face Double-A pitching before he turns 21 in August. With only two seasons of full-season ball and two as a second baseman, DeShields needs polish, but the organization's worries are now about how they'll get him on the field with Altuve, not about whether his repeat Single-A season was a fluke.
2012		Deshields was one of only seven 18-year-olds in the SAL. And though he was making a lot of weak contact, his .271 BABIP was also partly due to bad luck. Okay, enough excuses. The Astros didn't use the number eight overall pick on this guy to see him hit like Luis Durango�he was expected to mature into a double-digit home run threat who also filled up box scores with doubles and triples. He is making good progress on the position switch to second base, and though he hasn't mastered it yet, the team expects he will.
2011		The first of the Astros' two first-round draft picks last year and the eighth overall selection, Delino DeShields Jr. will try to follow in the footsteps of his father. Fittingly, the younger DeShields was converted from a center fielder into a second baseman in instructional league at the end of last season. His game is similar to that of his dad, a career .268/.352/.377 hitter, based more on speed and line drives than power. Whether that makes for an early draft pick is still open to debate, as few teams pegged him as higher than a late-first round talent.

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