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2019 Preseason Forecast
Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET
|2014-06-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)||In the very deapest of dynasty leagues, would you consider Kevin Kiermaier, Jesus Montero, Brock Holt, Brandon Barnes, Bobby Abreu, Eugenio Suarez, Rene Rivera, Steve Pearce, and Juan Lagares. In what order would you rank them of those you would consider? |
(Donald from Orlando)
|I'd look at Kiermaier, and Holt most among that group. Kiermaier has some nice PT with Myers down and Holt seems to be ready to play anywhere to stay in the lineup. There isn't a lot of disparity in the group, but for this year only, I'd still give Abreu a look, too. Beyond that, Suarez and Montero would be my next two. (Paul Sporer)|
|2014-02-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Hi R.J.,
Read recently where Adam Eaton said he'd like to have an OBA of .400 and steal 40 bases. I know he's done it in AAA but do you think that's realistic with the Sox ?|
(Pete from Chicago)
|Pete, I like Eaton as a player and as an acquisition, but he's unlikely to hit those marks. We haven't seen a player pull off 40/.400 since Bobby Abreu in 2004, and it's only been done four other times since the latest round of expansion. Of course there have been three close calls over the past five seasons: Mike Trout missed out by one point of OBP in 2012; same with Matt Kemp in 2011; and Chone Figgins was within five points in 2009. It's just a tough combination to achieve.
Figgins is probably the best-case scenario for Eaton, as he lacks Trout and Kemp's strength. Still, I think it's more likely that he hits around .270, which ... just to do the math ... assuming he gets 500 AB and maintains his current HBP and SF rates ... he'd need about 96 walks to get a .400 OBP. That's a ~16 percent walk rate, or what would've been the second-highest rate last season in the majors.
So no, I don't think those are realistic expectations for Eaton. He should help the White Sox nonetheless. (R.J. Anderson)
|2014-01-23 12:00:00 (link to chat)||The Phillies signed Bobby Abreu. Is there a real reason this was done? What can he still bring, if anything? I'm a little dumbfounded. |
(Kevin from Penn)
|Yeah, I join you in your dumfoundedness, Kevin. As Sam noted on Effectively Wild a few days back, the issue with Abreu isn't his hitting. I mean, you can question that, sure, but they only gave him a minor league deal so if he doesn't hit, fine, get rid of him, send him down, whatever. The issue is his defense which was bad when he played in MLB years ago. The Phillies don't have the benefit of the DH, so I'm failing to see the upside here. Maybe Abreu comes back and he's CC skinny and all of a sudden can run and field. Again, minor league deal, so no risk for the Phillies as long as they don't play him in the field, but I agree, it seems like another opportunity for the Phillies to shoot themselves in the foot. (Matthew Kory)|
|2014-01-21 18:00:00 (link to chat)||Is Abreu really capable of living up to all this hype he's getting? I'm seeing him being consistently ranked top 20 at his position and I'm incredibly skeptical. |
(yancyeaton from Faint07)
|Bobby Abreu signed a minor league deal and I thought for a second you were talking about him. I have to assume you're talking about Jose Abreu, the Cuban important who will presumably start at 1B for the White Sox. Top 20 is well within his reach but, yes, there is obviously a good deal of risk surrounding Abreu given all of the unknowns. In standard mixed there are probably safer plays, but in a deeper league I think you have to take him. (Mike Gianella)|
|2014-01-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Bobby Abreu....2014 Sleeper?|
(BobbyWatch from 2014)
|Of course! (Mark Anderson)|
|2011-04-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Is Bobby Abreu a Hall of Famer? He has nearly a 300/400/500 career line and two 30/30 seasons - or is his lack of a peak too much to overcome being generally very good for almost 15 seasons?|
(mef from Brooklyn)
|Outstanding hitter, but yes, his peak hasn't been high enough, and his lack of accolades (2 All-Star appearances and a Gold Glove) suggests nobody has really thought of him in terms of the Hall. Unless he gets to 3000 hits, he's probably doomed, and I'm not sure that's a real injustice given the way his bad latter-day defense has cut into his value. (Jay Jaffe)|
|2010-09-15 14:00:00 (link to chat)||The likely outcome for Dunn in Philly is something similar to Bobby Abreu, who, if memory serves, was blamed for the team's struggles even though he was one of their best players.
Unless, like Howard, he had a better supporting cast. Teams that are a player or two short of being real quality teams tend to end up blaming their best players for not being perfect.|
(Rob in CT from firstname.lastname@example.org)
|This is a good call, Rob. Yes, Abreu was blamed for the struggles because he wasn't as hard-nosed of a player, even though he was fantastic. Abreu's Phillies teams consistently finished 1-3 games out of the playoffs, and that's how he was viewed -- good but not good enough. (Eric Seidman)|
|2009-11-02 15:00:00 (link to chat)||Assuming the Giants don't sign Bay or Holliday, what hitter do you see them going after?|
(brianpekrul from San Francisco)
|He's so much not their guy, but Bobby Abreu would be a godsend for them. Maybe three wins better than Schierholtz. (Joe Sheehan)|
|2009-10-13 14:00:00 (link to chat)||It seems like Kenny Williams and Billy Beane almost approach their teams like keeper league fantasy owners: building up for runs earlier in the year, being unafraid to sell off when it doesn't go well as the season progresses, and taking on value (i.e., getting stars like Holliday, Peavy, or Rios cheaply while also dealing for prospects like Quentin) whenever possible. They don't seem to follow the more rigid labels of "rebuilding" or "contending." Is this is a genuine trend I'm noticing, and does this flexbility serve their teams better than some sort of more consistent plan?|
(Jim Clancy from Exhibition Stadium)
|Well, Kenny certainly seems like someone who keeps things in play. He keeps an eye out to add other people's blue-chip talent when other people get frustrated with it (Danks, Floyd, and Quentin, for example), Flowers is on the way as well, and yet he's also adding premium veterans. Rios might end up looking like a mistake in the long-term, but it was an understandable risk given they were playing Podzilla again, and needed a center fielder.
It's a superficial observation, but I guess I'm left with the notion that the repercussions of the Bobby Abreu trade of 2006 was the event that highlighted how silly it can be to talk about 'white flags' or talking about rebuilding/contending as opposites. Pat Gillick ran up the flag, and two weeks later he's in a playoff race. Doing both at once is the rule for more teams than there are in just one category or the other. (Christina Kahrl)
|2009-09-21 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Do the Giants win the WildCard with Adam Dunn (or Bobby Abreu) and Orlando Hudson?|
(kmdarcy from Portland, Oregon)
|That certainly looks like enough of an upgrade given how wretched the performances they've gotten out of their 2B (.242/.289/.345), LF (.261/.331/.410) and 1B (.274/.323/.419) players. Take Hudson away from the Dodgers and you start to close the gap in the NL West as well. For want of a nail...
Other thought about Villalona - it might be time for somebody to revisit the career of Cesar Cedeno, who was involved in a shooting early in his career and never was the same player. (Jay Jaffe)
|2009-08-19 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Hi Jay, how do you think Bobby Abreu will, and should, fare in HOF balloting? Thanks|
(collins from greenville nc)
|See today's piece. (Jay Jaffe)|
|2009-05-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Would you consider the Johnny Damon signing a "good signing" for the Yankees? At the time of the deal everyone thought 4 years was too long but he has had a pretty good run with the Yankees... |
(brian from Brooklyn NY)
|I guess overall you can't argue with it. They've gotten .288/.363/.459 in 462 games to date and Damon has been durable but for that one DL stay last year. The real problem with it is that they signed Damon after passing on Carlos Beltran the year before, one of the more inexplicable non-moves in team history.
Now, even if Damon slugs .610 for the rest of the season, I don't think there's a good argument for re-signing him to anything more than a one-year deal, in the same way that they held the line on Bobby Abreu. And if he doesn't slug .610 the rest of the year, we'd have to revisit the one-year part. What you don't want to wind up with is Damon '07 in a corner. (Steven Goldman)
|2009-02-10 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Why are the Yankees getting rid of Bobby Abreu? He seemed to be so valuable in clutch situations.|
(hdl327 from Montclair, NJ)
|Even the Yankees decided they couldn't afford all options simultaneously; I think landing Swisher for a corner's a good fit for them, and with their upgrade at first base and (ideally) a healthy season from Godzilla at DH, they really didn't have the space or need for him at the price he was anticipating he'd command earlier this winter. (Christina Kahrl)|
|2009-02-10 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Is Fernando Martinez the next Jay Payton and should the Mets sign Abreu to play in the outfield?|
(mwashuc06 from Utica,NY)
|I'm willing to give Omar Minaya a lot of credit for holding onto Martinez, but I also think there's no need to rush him to find out if he's just Jay Payton or perhaps closer to his top comp (the ubiquitous Bobby Abreu). As a result, I think it does make sense for the Mets to go get an additional outfielder, but that's in part because I wasn't a big Ryan Church fan before his mishaps, and I'm less so now. Filling one outfield corner with "staff" is fine, but both? (Christina Kahrl)|
|2009-02-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Why are the Yankees letting Bobby Abreu go? He has been so good for the team, and I can't see that this guy Swisher has stats even close to Abreu.
No one seems to address this. Did he not get along with someone??|
(hdl327 from Montclair, NJ )
|They didn't want to get locked into a multi-year deal for a declining player. It's that simple. Given that Abreu's walks and power were trending downward and his defense was abysmal, the only real edge he had on Swisher is batting average. If the Swish can get back to just .250, he'll be right there with Abreu in productivity. That's if he plays. If the Yankees stick with Nady in right, your question has a great deal more validity. The Yanks would be letting the tail wag the dog - "We got him, now we have to play him." (Steven Goldman)|
|2009-02-03 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Which free agent made the biggest mistake in not accepting arbitration from their former team?|
(denny187 from WI)
|I went looking for a list and couldn't find one, although I know I had one in my mailbox for a while. Anyway, given where the market went, it looks like Bobby Abreu may end up with the biggest gap between arb salary (maybe $14 million?) and an eventual one-year deal. Maybe.
This introduces the question: do we have to re-evaluate my criticism of the Yankees' decision to not offer arbitration to Abreu and Pettitte? Given what each did/eventually will sign for, clearly the Yankees saved money, although I still think both would have declined arb. Wow, imagine Abreu's situation if a #1 pick was attached to him... (Joe Sheehan)
|2009-01-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Any thoughts where a guy like Bobby Abreu ends up? Solid obp guy, could Texas use him?|
(kmshipley from austin, texas)
|Abreu's kind of the guy who surprises me and maybe the guy most hurt by the market. A one year deal doesn't really help him the way it might with Dunn. Texas? No, they have enough OF guys and why spend when you have Nelson Cruz? (Will Carroll)|
|2008-10-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Hi Steven. Which free agents should the Yankees target this off-season, if any? |
(Joe from Washington, DC)
|Teixeira has to be job #1. He's the closest thing to a no-brainer there is out there in terms of maintaining/improving the offense and shoring up a problematic defense. After that, I'd love to see a right fielder who can hit with Bobby Abreu but isn't afraid that the wall is going to bite him, but that doesn't seem to be in the cards just now... I don't share their enthusiasm for signing every free agent pitcher on the market. Sabathia's size and workload are kind of scary, Burnett is somewhat overrated and tends to break down. Sheets is great but is an injury concern. They don't have the defense to support Derek Lowe. I guess of those four CC is the best bet. (Steven Goldman)|
|2008-09-23 13:30:00 (link to chat)||Obviously the Indians could stand to improve their corners, but what are the practical steps towards that? Who stays and who goes and from where do you find outside help? Thanks, Joe.|
(Noah from Brooklyn)
|They've solved one with Choo, right? A Choo/Gutierrez platoon is pretty tasty. I'd see about Bobby Abreu for the other; he strikes me as undervalued by the industry. At first base, I leave Garko alone for a year, and get Victor Martinez some time on occasion. Third base...no idea. It's probably time to give up on Marte. You could trade for Garret Atkins, I guess, but he's not really that good. (Joe Sheehan)|
|2008-09-15 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Isn't a better Markakis comp Bobby Abreu in his peak years?|
(jamin67038 from Wichita, KS)
|Yes, yes it is. and good one. (Kevin Goldstein)|
|2008-08-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)||All in all as his Yanks career ends with a whimper, what did you think of the Bobby Abreu era? Is he a non-clutch wuss as some/many/all? Philly fans think?|
(Jay from Philadelphia)
|No, but he is the worst outfielder going back on the ball that I've ever seen. (Steven Goldman)|
|2008-08-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Great song about Jean Arthur by Robbie Fulks. And Robbie is from Chicago, so maybe we can debate which town has better musicians. |
(kevin from maryland)
|Like Colbert, she had no middle period. That was her choice -- she decided to dial down her career as she approached middle age. It's like romantic comedy lead, romantic comedy lead... the mom in "Shane." And then very little else. Apparently she didn't much like talking about her career, either, which is too bad... I don't know that song. I'll check it out. Is there a song about Veronica Lake anywhere?
...Gabe Gross has played well lately, but you could see Bobby Abreu being a good add for the Rays. Wouldn't that be ironic given that they traded him for Kevin Stocker in one of the more infamous moves in history? (Steven Goldman)
|2008-03-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Brett Gardner has two more stolen bases today against the Reds -- any room for him on the roster? Sure seems like he'd be useful, and it isn't like he's a zero at the plate.|
(g-mo from noch)
|I'm a Gardner fan, but we have to recognize that he's a little feller with no power to speak of. That said, they could really use his skill set in the fifth outfielder line, because they currently have a deficit in the pinch-runner/defensive replacement department. As I've written elsewhere, the only reason not to select Gardner for that job, if they can find room with all of the corner types they're going to carry, is that he's a lefty, and it would be nice if the reserve OF could spell Bobby Abreu against the tougher southpaws.
I'm rooting for a Reggie Willits acquisition, but know it won't happen. (Steven Goldman)
|2008-02-29 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Who is the best overall baserunner on the Yankees?|
(Rob from Andover, CT)
|In 2007 I had Johnny Damon on top at +7 runs with Alex Rodriguez next at +5.2. Derek Jeter usually does well in baserunning and was at +2.4 and Hidecki Matsui was at +2.3.
On the flip side, as usual Jorge Posada was last at -7.6 and Jason Giambi was at -3.5. Robinson Cano also did poorly at -2.2. Those three were also on the bottom in 2006 with Bernie Williams next.
Melky Cabrera (+2) did well in 2006 as did Bobby Abreu (+1.5) but Damon was tops at +5.6.
Based on past performance I'd have to go with Damon. (Dan Fox)
|2010-04-05 09:30:00||Season Opener Roundtable||Dost thine eyes deceive me, or was that No. 53...Bobby Abreu...running into a wall?! (Steph Bee)|
|2009-10-16 13:00:00||NLCS Game Two/ALCS Game One||Popup city for the Dodgers.|
adambennett (MD Backgammon Tourney): Abreu for the HoF? A couple more good seasons should do it, right?
Assuming we're talking about Bobby Abreu and not Tony or Winston, he's further away from the Hall of Fame. I looked at this back in August (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9416). By those numbers, which don't account for 2009, he was about 17 WARP short on career and a couple WARP shy on peak, but the real problem is that he's just past 2,100 hits at age 35, isn't close to 300 homers (256), has just two All-Star appearances and has never finished higher than 14th in the MVP voting. Plus there's the fact that guys who walk 80 or 100 times a year are exactly the ones who get kicked in the head by the voters, who prefer hackers like Jim Rice and Ryne Sandberg to plate disciples like Ron Santo, Tim Raines and Bobby Grich. (Jay Jaffe)
|2008-10-10 13:30:00||Friday LCS||I was thinking Bobby Abreu for right field. They could use the OBP. (Joe Sheehan)|
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