Biographical

Portrait of Jake Peavy

Jake Peavy PGiants

Giants Player Cards | Giants Team Audit | Giants Depth Chart

2018 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 37)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
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Birth Date5-31-1981
Height6' 1"
Weight195 lbs
Age36 years, 10 months, 21 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
-0.32014
0.32015
-0.42016
2017
0.12018
proj
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA- WARP
2002 SDN MLB 17 17 97.7 6 7 0 106 33 90 11 .258 102 9.8 3.0 1.0 8.3 51% .324 .262 1.42 3.60 4.52 85 4.29 92.1 1.5
2003 SDN MLB 32 32 194.7 12 11 0 173 82 156 33 .257 95 8.0 3.8 1.5 7.2 42% .255 .262 1.31 4.93 4.11 99 4.50 94.4 2.7
2004 SDN MLB 27 27 166.3 15 6 0 146 53 173 13 .261 91 7.9 2.9 0.7 9.4 45% .300 .238 1.20 3.03 2.27 75 3.42 70.6 4.3
2005 SDN MLB 30 30 203.0 13 7 0 162 50 216 18 .255 91 7.2 2.2 0.8 9.6 46% .276 .227 1.04 2.85 2.88 67 2.50 53.8 6.9
2006 SDN MLB 32 32 202.3 11 14 0 187 62 215 23 .260 83 8.3 2.8 1.0 9.6 40% .304 .252 1.23 3.46 4.09 68 3.42 69.7 5.3
2007 SDN MLB 34 34 223.3 19 6 0 169 68 240 13 .255 86 6.8 2.7 0.5 9.7 45% .273 .215 1.06 2.77 2.54 69 2.74 56.6 7.3
2008 SDN MLB 27 27 173.7 10 11 0 146 59 166 17 .255 88 7.6 3.1 0.9 8.6 43% .279 .231 1.18 3.56 2.85 81 2.83 60.3 5.3
2009 CHA 0 3 3 20.0 3 0 0 11 6 18 1 .259 107 5.0 2.7 0.5 8.1 51% .200 .164 0.85 2.88 1.35 82 2.86 61.3 0.6
2009 SDN 0 13 13 81.7 6 6 0 69 28 92 7 .253 83 7.6 3.1 0.8 10.1 44% .300 .243 1.19 2.98 3.97 75 2.42 51.9 2.9
2010 CHA MLB 17 17 107.0 7 6 0 98 34 93 13 .258 111 8.2 2.9 1.1 7.8 43% .279 .240 1.23 3.98 4.63 93 3.57 80.7 2.1
2011 CHA MLB 19 18 111.7 7 7 0 117 24 95 10 .261 105 9.4 1.9 0.8 7.7 40% .317 .249 1.26 3.24 4.92 92 4.42 102.8 0.8
2012 CHA MLB 32 32 219.0 11 12 0 191 49 194 27 .260 107 7.8 2.0 1.1 8.0 37% .272 .234 1.10 3.68 3.37 91 3.42 78.3 4.5
2013 BOS 0 10 10 64.7 4 1 0 56 19 45 6 .267 102 7.8 2.6 0.8 6.3 30% .256 .238 1.16 3.81 4.04 100 4.59 109.8 0.3
2013 CHA 0 13 13 80.0 8 4 0 74 17 76 14 .261 98 8.3 1.9 1.6 8.6 37% .278 .263 1.14 4.12 4.28 103 3.90 93.4 1.0
2014 BOS 0 20 20 124.0 1 9 0 131 46 100 20 .267 103 9.5 3.3 1.5 7.3 42% .301 .292 1.43 4.83 4.72 114 5.34 131.0 -0.8
2014 SFN 0 12 12 78.7 6 4 0 65 17 58 3 .258 97 7.4 1.9 0.3 6.6 40% .270 .244 1.04 3.00 2.17 105 4.30 105.6 0.5
2015 SFN MLB 19 19 110.7 8 6 0 99 25 78 12 .263 91 8.1 2.0 1.0 6.3 40% .263 .252 1.12 3.89 3.58 105 4.82 112.6 0.3
2016 SFN MLB 31 21 118.7 5 9 0 134 36 102 18 .263 94 10.2 2.7 1.4 7.7 38% .320 .300 1.43 4.39 5.54 108 5.65 125.1 -0.4
2009 TOT MLB 16 16 101.7 9 6 0 80 34 110 8 .254 88 7.1 3.0 0.7 9.7 45% .280 .229 1.12 2.96 3.45 77 2.51 53.7 3.5
2013 TOT MLB 23 23 144.7 12 5 0 130 36 121 20 .264 100 8.1 2.2 1.2 7.5 34% .268 .252 1.15 3.98 4.17 102 4.21 100.7 1.3
2014 TOT MLB 32 32 202.7 7 13 0 196 63 158 23 .264 100 8.7 2.8 1.0 7.0 42% .289 .274 1.28 4.12 3.73 111 4.94 121.1 -0.3
CareerMLB3883772377.0152126021347082207259.259958.12.71.08.442%.285.2471.203.613.63873.7382.645.1

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA-
1999 IDA Rk 2 2 11.0 2 0 0 5 1 13 0 .000 4.1 0.8 0.0 10.6 0% -.357 .000 0.55 2.31 0.00 0 0.00 0.0
2000 FTW A 26 25 133.7 13 8 0 107 53 164 6 .000 7.2 3.6 0.4 11.0 0% -.453 .000 1.20 2.60 2.89 0 0.00 0.0
2001 LEL A+ 19 19 105.3 7 5 0 76 33 144 6 .000 6.5 2.8 0.5 12.3 0% -.380 .000 1.04 2.72 3.08 0 0.00 0.0
2001 MOB AA 5 5 28.0 2 1 0 19 12 44 3 .000 6.1 3.9 1.0 14.1 0% -.267 .000 1.11 2.83 2.57 0 0.00 0.0
2002 SDN MLB 17 17 97.7 6 7 0 106 33 90 11 .258 102 9.8 3.0 1.0 8.3 51% .324 .262 1.42 3.60 4.52 85 4.29 92.1
2002 MOB AA 14 14 80.3 4 5 0 65 30 89 4 .000 7.3 3.4 0.4 10.0 0% .295 .000 1.18 2.75 2.80 0 0.00 0.0
2003 SDN MLB 32 32 194.7 12 11 0 173 82 156 33 .257 95 8.0 3.8 1.5 7.2 42% .255 .262 1.31 4.93 4.11 99 4.50 94.4
2004 SDN MLB 27 27 166.3 15 6 0 146 53 173 13 .261 91 7.9 2.9 0.7 9.4 45% .300 .238 1.20 3.03 2.27 75 3.42 70.6
2004 MOB AA 1 1 4.7 0 1 0 7 2 4 1 .000 13.4 3.8 1.9 7.7 0% .353 .000 1.91 5.49 5.74 0 0.00 0.0
2005 SDN MLB 30 30 203.0 13 7 0 162 50 216 18 .255 91 7.2 2.2 0.8 9.6 46% .276 .227 1.04 2.85 2.88 67 2.50 53.8
2006 SDN MLB 32 32 202.3 11 14 0 187 62 215 23 .260 83 8.3 2.8 1.0 9.6 40% .304 .252 1.23 3.46 4.09 68 3.42 69.7
2006 USA wor 2 2 8.2 0 0 0 6 1 6 1 .000 6.6 1.1 1.1 6.6 0% .238 .000 0.85 4.24 3.29 0 0.00 0.0
2007 SDN MLB 34 34 223.3 19 6 0 169 68 240 13 .255 86 6.8 2.7 0.5 9.7 45% .273 .215 1.06 2.77 2.54 69 2.74 56.6
2008 SDN MLB 27 27 173.7 10 11 0 146 59 166 17 .255 88 7.6 3.1 0.9 8.6 43% .279 .231 1.18 3.56 2.85 81 2.83 60.3
2009 CHA MLB 3 3 20.0 3 0 0 11 6 18 1 .259 107 5.0 2.7 0.5 8.1 51% .200 .164 0.85 2.88 1.35 82 2.86 61.3
2009 SDN MLB 13 13 81.7 6 6 0 69 28 92 7 .253 83 7.6 3.1 0.8 10.1 44% .300 .243 1.19 2.98 3.97 75 2.42 51.9
2009 CHR AAA 4 4 15.3 1 1 0 14 4 17 1 .246 108 8.2 2.4 0.6 10.0 29% .317 .208 1.18 2.75 2.94 85 2.79 86.9
2010 CHA MLB 17 17 107.0 7 6 0 98 34 93 13 .258 111 8.2 2.9 1.1 7.8 43% .279 .240 1.23 3.98 4.63 93 3.57 80.7
2011 CHA MLB 19 18 111.7 7 7 0 117 24 95 10 .261 105 9.4 1.9 0.8 7.7 40% .317 .249 1.26 3.24 4.92 92 4.42 102.8
2011 BIR AA 2 2 4.3 0 0 0 9 1 4 0 .253 100 18.7 2.1 0.0 8.3 39% .500 .359 2.31 2.14 6.23 102 6.12 113.3
2011 CHR AAA 4 4 24.7 1 1 0 21 1 26 3 .260 92 7.7 0.4 1.1 9.5 42% .286 .213 0.89 2.83 3.65 87 2.91 89.4
2012 CHA MLB 32 32 219.0 11 12 0 191 49 194 27 .260 107 7.8 2.0 1.1 8.0 37% .272 .234 1.10 3.68 3.37 91 3.42 78.3
2013 BOS MLB 10 10 64.7 4 1 0 56 19 45 6 .267 102 7.8 2.6 0.8 6.3 30% .256 .238 1.16 3.81 4.04 100 4.59 109.8
2013 CHA MLB 13 13 80.0 8 4 0 74 17 76 14 .261 98 8.3 1.9 1.6 8.6 37% .278 .263 1.14 4.12 4.28 103 3.90 93.4
2013 BIR AA 1 1 5.0 1 0 0 5 2 4 0 .239 106 9.0 3.6 0.0 7.2 25% .312 .241 1.40 2.50 1.80 103 4.39 102.4
2014 BOS MLB 20 20 124.0 1 9 0 131 46 100 20 .267 103 9.5 3.3 1.5 7.3 42% .301 .292 1.43 4.83 4.72 114 5.34 131.0
2014 SFN MLB 12 12 78.7 6 4 0 65 17 58 3 .258 97 7.4 1.9 0.3 6.6 40% .270 .244 1.04 3.00 2.17 105 4.30 105.6
2015 SFN MLB 19 19 110.7 8 6 0 99 25 78 12 .263 91 8.1 2.0 1.0 6.3 40% .263 .252 1.12 3.89 3.58 105 4.82 112.6
2015 SJO A+ 1 1 3.3 0 0 0 1 1 4 0 .262 85 2.7 2.7 0.0 10.8 14% .143 .104 0.60 2.28 0.00 96 3.09 98.0
2015 SAC AAA 6 6 32.3 0 3 0 39 9 28 5 .262 95 10.9 2.5 1.4 7.8 34% .340 .309 1.48 4.89 6.12 103 6.79 119.0
2016 SFN MLB 31 21 118.7 5 9 0 134 36 102 18 .263 94 10.2 2.7 1.4 7.7 38% .320 .300 1.43 4.39 5.54 108 5.65 125.1

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2008 2821 0.4807 0.4367 0.7508 0.5892 0.2956 0.8298 0.6051 0.2492
2009 1553 0.5035 0.4604 0.7594 0.6189 0.2996 0.8409 0.5887 0.2406
2010 1692 0.5355 0.4610 0.7949 0.6082 0.2913 0.8784 0.5939 0.2051
2011 1837 0.5335 0.5003 0.7813 0.6337 0.3477 0.8341 0.6711 0.2187
2012 3483 0.4844 0.4789 0.7788 0.6224 0.3441 0.8486 0.6602 0.2212
2013 2366 0.5051 0.4776 0.8062 0.6536 0.2980 0.8694 0.6648 0.1938
2014 3211 0.4765 0.4771 0.7866 0.6608 0.3099 0.8635 0.6372 0.2134
2015 1737 0.5072 0.4859 0.8104 0.6527 0.3143 0.8800 0.6617 0.1896
2016 2007 0.4738 0.4748 0.7692 0.6593 0.3087 0.8453 0.6227 0.2308
Career207070.49590.4720.78110.63310.31370.85360.63630.2189

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-09-27 2014-09-27 DTD 0 0 - General Medical Illness -
2014-03-02 2014-03-13 Camp 11 0 Left Fingers Laceration Laceration - Tendon Nerve Damage From Fishing Accident - -
2014-02-15 2014-02-20 Camp 5 0 Right Fingers Tendonitis Ring Finger - -
2013-09-13 2013-09-18 DTD 5 4 Left Wrist Contusion Batted Ball - -
2013-06-05 2013-07-19 15-DL 44 36 Left Trunk Fracture Ribcage - -
2013-04-27 2013-05-08 DTD 11 9 - Low Back Spasms - -
2012-08-25 2012-08-31 DTD 6 6 - Infection - -
2012-02-25 2012-03-07 Camp 11 0 - Infection - -
2011-06-06 2011-06-22 15-DL 16 14 Right Groin Strain Mild -
2011-03-22 2011-05-11 15-DL 50 37 Right Shoulder Recovery From Inflammation Rotator Cuff Tendinitis -
2011-03-15 2011-03-15 On-Alr 0 0 - General Medical Illness GI - -
2011-03-15 2011-03-22 Camp 7 0 Right Shoulder Inflammation Rotator Cuff Tendinitis -
2010-07-07 2010-10-04 60-DL 89 80 Right Shoulder Surgery Detached Latissimus Dorsi 2010-07-14
2010-03-12 2010-03-12 Camp 0 0 Left Shoulder Contusion -
2009-08-29 2009-08-29 On-Alr 0 0 Right Elbow Tightness From Previous Batted Ball -
2009-08-24 2009-08-24 On-Alr 0 0 Right Elbow Contusion Batted Ball -
2009-06-09 2009-09-19 15-DL 102 91 Right Ankle Strain Posterior Tibialis Tear Running Bases -
2009-06-03 2009-06-03 DTD 0 0 General Medical Illness Virus -
2009-05-22 2009-05-22 DTD 0 0 Right Ankle Inflammation -
2008-05-15 2008-06-12 15-DL 28 26 Right Elbow Strain -
2007-06-24 2007-06-24 DTD 0 0 Hand Contusion Sliding -
2006-08-27 2006-08-27 DTD 0 0 General Medical Illness Sinus Infection -
2006-05-29 2006-06-06 DTD 8 7 Right Shoulder Inflammation -
2006-04-20 2006-04-20 DTD 0 0 Right Ankle Contusion Batted Ball -
2006-03-04 2006-03-04 Camp 0 0 Bilateral Tear Retinas -
2005-10-07 2005-10-07 On-Alr 0 0 Infection Conjunctivitis -
2005-10-05 2005-10-09 DTD 4 0 Left Trunk Fracture Rib -
2005-09-05 2005-09-16 DTD 11 9 Right Shoulder Soreness -
2005-08-28 2005-08-30 DTD 2 2 Left Hand Laceration -
2005-07-05 2005-07-05 DTD 0 0 General Medical Illness Sore Throat -
2005-06-01 2005-06-08 DTD 7 6 General Medical Respiratory Flu -
2005-03-20 2005-03-26 Camp 6 0 Groin Strain -
2004-05-20 2004-07-02 15-DL 43 38 Right Elbow Strain Flexor Tendon -
2000-04-10 2000-04-28 Minors 18 0 - General Medical Illness Viral Meningitis - -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2016 SFN $15,000,000
2015 SFN $9,000,000
2014 BOS $14,500,000
2013 CHA $14,500,000
2012 CHA $17,000,000
2011 CHA $16,000,000
2010 CHA $15,000,000
2009 SDN $11,000,000
2008 SDN $6,000,000
2007 SDN $4,750,000
2006 SDN $2,500,000
2005 SDN $750,000
2004 SDN $350,000
2003 SDN $305,000
YearsDescriptionSalary
14 yrPrevious$126,655,000
14 yrTotal$126,655,000

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
14 y 101 dJeff Berry, CAA2 years/$24M (2015-16)

Details
  • 2 years/$24M (2015-16). Re-signed by San Francisco as a free agent 12/19/14. $4M signing bonus. 15:$7M, 16:$13M.
  • 2 years/$29M (2013-14). Signed extension with Chicago White Sox 10/30/12. 13:$14.5M, 14:$14.5M. Peavy receives $15M player option for 2015 if he 1) has 400 IP in 2013-14, including 190 IP in 2014 and 2) is not on the disabled list at the end of the 2014 season. As part of the deal, Chicago agreed to pay the $4M buyout from Peavy's previous contract in four installments from 2016 to 2019. Acquired by Boston in three-way trade from Chicago White Sox 7/30/13. Acquired by San Francisco in trade from Boston 7/26/14, with Giants and Red Sox splitting remaining 2014 salary of about $5.15M.
  • 3 years/$52M (2010-12), plus 2013 club option. Signed extension with San Diego 12/07. 10:$15M, 11:$16M, 12:$17M, 13:$22M club option, $4M buyout. Limited no-trade protection (may block to 14 clubs in 2011, 8 clubs in 2012. Acquired by Chicago White Sox in trade from San Diego 7/31/09. Previously represented by agent Barry Axelrod.
  • 4 years/$14.5M (2005-08), plus 2009 club option. Signed extension with San Diego 2/05. 05:$0.75M, 06:$2.5M, 07:$4.75M, 08:$6M, 09:$8M club option, $0.5M buyout. Escalator may increase '08 salary to $6.5M & '09 option to $11M. Award bonus: $25,000 for All-Star.
  • 1 year/$0.35M (2004). Re-signed by San Diego 3/04.
  • 1 year/$0.305M (2003). Re-signed by San Diego 3/03.
  • Drafted by San Diego 1999 (15-472) (St. Paul's Episcopal HS, Mobile, Ala.).

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Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv
10 vs L (Multi) .263 .320 .479 .284
11 vs R (Multi) .262 .308 .429 .271
18 Split (Multi) .001 .012 .050 .013
19 LgAvg (Multi) .006 .020 .015 .013
30 vs L (2016) .302 .360 .561 .322
31 vs R (2016) .266 .313 .461 .283
38 Split (2016) .037 .047 .100 .039
39 LgAvg (2016) .003 .018 .013 .012

Definition of multi-year splits

BP Annual Player Comments

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BP Articles

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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2015-04-16 17:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on Giants rotation and when/if we might see Yusmeiro Petit?
(wml2000 from NYC)
After Madison Bumgarner it looks really thin, though Jake Peavy and Tim Hudson could certainly surprise us. Chris Heston has shown some velocity improvement and could be better than we were expecting, but I still see him as a back end guy. Tim Lincecum's velo is really down and while the deception is better, I don't trust him much. Who knows when Matt Cain's coming back? I'd love to see Petit in the rotation, but it could be a while if Heston holds up. I'll guess June. (Mike Gianella)
2014-04-09 19:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Mauricio,was thinking of trading for Jake Peavy,i know he's injury prone and 32 yrs old now for Allen Webster..Websters stock seems to be going down....do you feel I shouldn't give up on Webster yet???? Thanks!!!!
(John from Boston)
Assuming this is Dynasty, if you are looking to win right the hell now I would take Peavy over Webster. There are other pitchers I'd rather take on than Peavy, however. If the Webster market is exhausted and you're looking to win now I would gamble on Jake

Also, to better answer your questions please let me know the non standard categories and league depth. Thanks! (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-01-21 18:00:00 (link to chat)10 team AL only 7 kepers. Definites: Kipnis $6, Donaldson $5, Longoria $21, Scherzer $21. Need 3 more: Cruz $15 (assuming he signs in AL), Salazar $1, J. Johnson $9, Miller $5, Peavy $8, Franklin $1
(maattwind from Brasil)
Hi maatt

I wouldn't touch Nelson Cruz at the moment. Of those maybes, I think I'd go with Danny Salazar, Jim Johnson, and Jake Peavy. Brad Miller is tempting, but I like the surer things given the limited number of keepers. (Mike Gianella)
2013-12-10 18:00:00 (link to chat)in the Twilight Zone where the nation and the universe come together how about a trade Peavy and 4m for Gardner
(mlee730 from Boston)
You mean if the Red Sox and Yankees decide to hug it out the way the mail carrier and the dog did at the end of The Naked Gun?

Brett Gardner is probably an upgrade on Daniel Nava because of the former's defense, but not a huge upgrade and not enough for Boston to trade an asset like Jake Peavy. Even if the Red Sox thought that Felix Doubront or Brandon Workman could slot into the rotation, starting pitching depth is always at a premium. The deal would be great for the Yankees, but I think Peavy could bring back more in trade for Boston. (Mike Gianella)
2013-10-30 12:00:00 (link to chat)Hey bro, what do you think Jake Peavy will do if he has to start game 7? And, anticipating your typical pessimistic self-loathing Red Sox Fan answer, well then what should the Red Sox do instead?
(Broseph from Broronto)
They traded for him for a reason, and yes, he has a 7.11 ERA in the postseason, but I don't think he's really that bad a pitcher. It wouldn't shock me if he went five innings and gave up two runs.

Also wouldn't shock me if the team decided to start Felix Doubront instead. (Matthew Kory)
2013-07-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)Do the Angels shop Peter Bourjos at the deadline for pitching? I know he's hurt now, but would his injury be a deal-breaker as of now? If not, what could the Angels net in return?
(Brent from Laguna Beach)
They certainly could. How hurt would matter of course, but I believe Jake Peavy was dealt while injured. Bourjos would likely net a mint and rightfully so, but there isn't a ton on the market. (Paul Sporer)
2013-03-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)Now hearing rumors that Pads are taking calls on Headley. What's the best case scenario for the Pads if he stays or he goes in your mind?
(Oldwell89 from Far, Far, Away)
Oldwell, I personally hope they keep Headley and extend him. The trouble is that right now nobody knows how much money the new Padres owners have and/or are willing to spend. Which, come to think of it, is a central theme throughout the franchise's existence. It's a little disconcerting to fans that he hasn't been locked up long-term already. It would be a shame to see Headley follow Jake Peavy, Adrian Gonzalez, and Mat Latos out of town. (Geoff Young)
2013-03-01 13:00:00 (link to chat)How many starts until Chris Sale explodes (in a bad way)?
(Max from LA)
It's impossible to tell. His delivery is full of injury red flags, but there are player-specific variables when it comes to conditioning and genetics that ultimately play a bigger role than is often acknowledged. Perhaps he has the structural stability to support his motion for years, though I would hedge my bets. But then again, I never thought that Jake Peavy's elbow would survive as long as it did, but his structural integrity in the joint allowed him to pitch for years, and when his arm did give out it was actually his shoulder that broke down (indicating a weakness relative to the elbow).

On the jukebox: Anthrax, "Only" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-03-01 13:00:00 (link to chat)Chris Carpenter's arm seems to officially be a casualty of the war for the 2011 World Series championship. The Cardinals rode him harder than any pitcher had been ridden since Randy Johnson in 2001, with predictable results. Even though the White Sox didn't get nearly as far last season, I look at Jake Peavy's handling and injury history, and I go, "Yikes." What do you foresee for him? Were there mechanical or usage reasons to believe he was less injury-prone in 2012, or will be going forward? Or are the Sox doomed to lose the guy who racked up the second-most PAP (admittedly a flawed stat) in baseball last year? I see PECOTA trusts him for 30 starts and 201 innings.
(Matt Trueblood from Fridley, MN)
As I alluded to with the Sale question, Peavy has a serious precursor to elbow injury that is woven into his mechanics. Specifically, he suffers from considerable elbow-drag, as a combination of heavy scapular load and a big delay of trunk rotation that causes the throwing arm to lag behind the body, such that the elbow is behind the shoulder axis when the arm begins the phase of internal rotation. He does seem to have other-worldly strength and stability within the joint, but the workloads are also a concern.

On the plus side, Peavy has eased off the gas pedal with respect to momentum and the rotational elements, with improved balance when compared to his Padre days. This has lessened the kinetic toll of every pitch, so he has made some mechanical adjustments to improve his prognosis. His delivery is actually very efficient, aside from the elbow drag, and I like his chances to have a good year in 2013. But I would keep a safe distance when drafting a keeper league.

On the jukebox: Jimi Hendrix, "Pail Gap" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-02-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Can keep one for a starting pitcher keeper for 2013... Josh Johnson, Jake Peavy, Anibal Sanchez, Lance Lynn... Not opposed to taking a bit of a risk, almost want to keep Lynn, am I crazy?
(GMan from Detroit)
You're not crazy, I *REALLY* like Lynn. Is there no differentiating cost between them? I'd lean Peavy if not, but if you want to go for broke with Lynn, I support it. (Paul Sporer)
2011-03-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)I don't wager, and of course would never encourage anyone else to either. But after the usual Vegas favorites like the Phillies, Red Sox and Yankees...what of the second-teir teams would you take a look at? Myself, I kinda like the White Sox and Tigers both going off at 25-1.
(singledigit from San Diego, Ca)
I've yet to make any bet more serious or since the buck I won on Sammy Sosa hitting 40 homers in 1996 (with myself and the man I'd bet against in attendance that very night he did it), so take my two cents with the appropriate spoonful of salt, but the White Sox at 25-1 look like a great choice. That said, I'm a believer that their rotation's the unit that might get them there, whether they get 16 starts from Jake Peavy or 26. (Christina Kahrl)
2010-09-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Do you think that any other active pitcher has a legitimate shot at 300 wins besides Sabathia?
(adamseth7 from philly)
I wouldn't bet against Roy Halladay (166 and counting through his age 33 season), and I think the resurgence of Roy Oswalt (149 through his age 31) puts him back on the map if he can stay in Philadelphia during his next contract, but the past year has been rough on other candidates such as Johan Santana, Andy Pettitte, Jake Peavy, even Jamie Moyer. (Jay Jaffe)
2010-07-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Keeper league question: Assuming you have the space, would you cheaply obtain Jake Peavy this season and stash him away for next year?
(Dennis from LA)
I'm not so sure. I don't like him in US Cellular still, and he hasn't been keeper-worthy this year even before his shoulder fell apart. If he doesn't cost much, and doesn't keep you from holding onto someone else who may be useful, sure. (Marc Normandin)
2010-06-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thank you for answering my previous questions. The only pitching categories in my league are Innings Pitched and Runs Allowed. Do you think Jake Peavy might be a good buy-low target for the next couple of years? And do you think Pat Burrell will emerge from the grave in SF? Thanks again!
(Dennis from LA)
I think Peavy's days of being an ace are over, but he's not as bad as he's been this year, so yes, he's a good buy-low target. Burrell wasn't just having a hard time hitting in Tampa Bay--he was overly selective at the plate and let a lot of pitches he used to crush go by without a swing. If he changes his approach in San Francisco, the hits could come, but it all hinges on that. (Marc Normandin)
2009-12-29 15:00:00 (link to chat)How do you think Jake Peavy will fare in his first full year with the ChiSox?
(Phil S. from NJ)
205 IP, 4.10 ERA, 195 K, 66 BB, 28 HR. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-08-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)What's going on with Jake Peavy? Will he need to make all 3 minor league rehab starts, or do you think he will be ready after 2?
(Dan from Chicago)
That's a really good question. I think we'll know a lot more after the first one - is he comfortable? are the mechanics ok or is the ankle throwing things off? where's the stamina? I think it could be all three, but the Sox are very flexible and aggressive. (Will Carroll)
2009-07-31 14:00:00 (link to chat)So the white sox bet the farm. But do you think it will have any real impact on their 2009 playoff odds?
(stately from bhm)
I think I'm not entirely sure how they get calculated. They've added Jake Peavy, but it's not clear how many starts of Jake Peavy, so the impact on the numbers may not reflect the real-world change.

In other words, I don't know. Glad I could help. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-06-05 15:30:00 (link to chat)Do you live in fear knowing that it's only a matter of time before Ruben Amaro trades me half the farm system for Erik Bedard?
(Jack from Seattle)
The Phillies have about a 2-year window of really being solid competitors for a postseason slot and potentially the World Series. They definitely need another solid starting pitcher with the question marks surrounding Jamie Moyer. Blanton has been more effective recently, Hamels is back, and JA Happ looks like the real deal as a back of the rotation pitcher as well. But for a potential playoff team, do you really want to rely on Antonio Bastardo, a prospect that some Phillies fans didn't even know about? I would certainly be in favor of unloading key prospects to get someone to solidify their rotation. Ideally that someone would be Roy Oswalt or Jake Peavy, but if it's Bedard for half of a season in exchange for roadblocked prospects, so be it. (Eric Seidman)
2009-04-16 13:00:00 (link to chat)I think the Padres have a real chance of making it this year!
(Oranguntang from Sevilla)
I wish. Sadly, I see more of Jake Peavy and Chris Young doing well with no one caring, and Adrian Gonzalez and Brian Giles being top 15-20 hitters in the NL again while most of the rest of the lineup lags behind (but not you Jody Gerut, we love you). (Marc Normandin)
2009-01-29 13:00:00 (link to chat)I just traded Porcello & Chris Marrero for Jake Peavy in a keeper league. I've got some serious seller's remorse on Porcello, but overall, I kinda, sorta like this deal. What you think, Marc?
(Johnny Tuttle from Battle Creek, Michigan)
I think if you need the pitching, then Peavy is a good one for you, as long as he stays in San Diego. If he gets dealt to a park that isn't going to help him while he loses velocity and strikeouts, then I hope you didn't get too attached to Porcello. (Marc Normandin)
2008-12-04 13:30:00 (link to chat)If you're the Cubs GM for the day, do you trade away Vitters (plus) for Jake Peavy?
(jgalt73 from Portland, OR)
Nope. The Cubs' strength is pitching, and their edge on that division is real. Adding another front-end starter at that price doesn't make enough of a difference to trade their best prospect. (Joe Sheehan)
2008-11-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Yunel Escobar, Gorkys Hernandez, Charles Morton and a lefty reliever for Jake Peavy seems basicaly to me like giving Escobar for Peavy who is a very cheap superace for 4-5 years. Is it a good or bad deal for the Braves?
(JOHN54 from Alabama)
I think you're being a little too harsh on Morton, and Gorkys, um... has a great name and could be, er, sort of a fourth OF. It's not a great return, you're right. It was a more exciting deal with Tommy Hanson as part of it. It's a good deal for the Braves. I've written elsewhere (tho' I'm not the only one) to suggest that Peavy's H/R splits suggest he is overvalued to some degree, and no doubt that figures in.

I'm so certain I typed "sex" in that last entry, but it came out "self." And you know what? Self-life is a really interesting concept that I like even better. (Steven Goldman)
2008-10-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)The team that trades for Jake Peavy -- what are they getting? What is his injury risk at this point?
(Brent from Raleigh)
Working on an article on this now, so consider it teased. (Will Carroll)
2008-10-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)What's an overwhelming package for Jake Peavy?
(Ryguy86 from NY)
A top-15 prospect, top-50, and top-75 guy, at least two of whom can be on the field by June. (Joe Sheehan)
2008-10-06 14:00:00 (link to chat)Can the tribe trade Kelly Shoppach for Ryan Howard? Does that deal make sense for both squads... And: If you're Towers do you take Cano and Hughes for Jake Peavy?
(thomas from harrisburg)
Bret? Is that you?

Neither of these trades make sense. I'm as down on Ryan Howard as anyone, but I'm not dealing him for a marginal starting catcher coming off of a career half-season. Good god.

And no, I don't trade one of the best SPs in baseball for a slow 2B who never walks and doesn't play defense but who costs a lot of money. That trade offer might even get you laughed off of WFAN. (Joe Sheehan)
2008-02-29 13:00:00 (link to chat)Dear Mr. Fox, Before my question, I must tell you that I have been a Cubs fan since my high school days in Niles, and I must say I really appreciate your blog piece on Goose Gossage. Now, about utilizing pitching f/x data: Your late piece on gyroball and Matsuzaka seems to bring light to the "deceit" of a pitch's movement. A surprising success of reliever Okajima last season had puzzled me. I tracked his pitching f/x data, and his pFx is weird. His pitches around upper 80mph moved WILDLY horizontally, ranging from a 10 to 15-inch apart from any trajectory line. I read mlbtraderumor's interview with Royal minor pitcher Brian Bannister. He talked about the sidespin of Jake Peavy's fastball that allows the pitch to move randomly and confuses batters. Is there any study on the effect of sidespin affecting batters' visualization of it? And had Okajima's pitches carry a similar, if not the same, effect of such pitches such as Peavy's or gyroball's?
(Dorasaga from Taipei, Taiwan)
Wow good question.

After I saw your question I went and pulled down Hideki Okajima's PITCHf/x data. I have 573 pitches for him which go into the post season.

In perusing his cannonical pfx chart he throws his three primary pitches (fastball, changeup, and curve) probably 90% of the time with his fastball ranging from 85 to 90, his changeup high 70s to 85, and his curveball from the low to mid 70s.

But in looking at the chart his fastball doesn't seem to move too much horizontally as compared to other pitchers. It sits in the 0 to 5 inch range whereas many pitchers see a tail of 5 to 8 inches on their fastballs. His changeup does tail 5 to 9 inches or so and drop about 5 inches more than his fastball.

What you may have seen is that his vertical component for the fastball registers in the 10 to 15 inch range but you have to remember that those values represent the difference from a pitch thrown with no spin. So in other words his fastball has a "rise" of 10 to 15 inches as compared to a theoretical reference pitch. In reality most pitchers see a range of 8 to 13 inchdes in this component and so his fastball may ride a little more than some others (which would be attributed to more backspin, not side spin) but it certainly doesn't tail any more.

Since you mentioned Jake Peavy I should mention that John Walsh at THT has done some great work on calculating the run value of individual pitches which you'll probably want to check out. But to directly answer your question I haven't seen anything specific on side spin or visualization of that. (Dan Fox)


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