Baseball Prospectus

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Statistics For All Levels

Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 80)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	92	Jacoby Ellsbury	2015	92
2	92	Charlie Blackmon	2018	123
3	91	Angel Pagan	2013	102
4	90	Vernon Wells	2010	121
5	88	Shane Victorino	2012	93
6	86	Alex Rios	2012	124
7	85	Jody Gerut	2009	76
8	85	Terry Moore	1943	0	DNP
9	84	Lorenzo Cain	2017	119
10	84	Frank Demaree	1941	82
11	84	Aaron Rowand	2009	87
12	84	Robin Yount	1987	122
13	84	Elmer Miller	1922	69
14	83	Juan Rivera	2010	103
15	82	Earle Combs	1930	130
16	82	Coco Crisp	2011	96
17	82	Amos Otis	1978	154
18	82	David Murphy	2013	91
19	82	Carl Crawford	2013	99
20	82	Eric Byrnes	2007	107
21	82	Josh Reddick	2018	106
22	82	Melky Cabrera	2016	110
23	81	Jon Jay	2016	84
24	81	Torii Hunter	2007	113
25	81	Adam Jones	2017	106
26	81	Gary Matthews	2006	113
27	81	Ben Francisco	2013	82
28	81	Johnny Frederick	1933	106
29	81	Bernie Williams	2000	130
30	80	Dexter Fowler	2017	118
31	80	Billy Southworth	1924	90
32	80	Kevin Mench	2009	0	DNP
33	80	Jerry Mumphrey	1984	104
34	80	Carlos Lee	2007	122
35	80	Rajai Davis	2012	85
36	80	Baby Doll Jacobson	1922	100
37	80	Gregor Blanco	2015	103
38	79	Hideki Matsui	2005	122
39	79	Carlos Beltran	2008	121
40	79	Pete Rose	1972	119
41	79	Taffy Wright	1943	0	DNP
42	79	Harry Walker	1948	84
43	79	Johnny Hopp	1948	89
44	79	Kenny Lofton	1998	102
45	79	Ben Chapman	1940	112
46	79	Chet Lemon	1986	105
47	79	Brandon Guyer	2017	81
48	79	Moises Alou	1998	150
49	79	Michael Cuddyer	2010	106
50	79	Denard Span	2015	111
51	79	Jose Cruz	1979	109
52	79	Andrew McCutchen	2018	117
53	79	Wally Moses	1942	112
54	79	Curt Flood	1969	94
55	78	Del Ennis	1956	94
56	78	Marquis Grissom	1998	80
57	78	Heinie Manush	1933	117
58	78	Kevin McReynolds	1991	111
59	78	Jackie Brandt	1965	101
60	78	Gene Woodling	1954	97
61	78	Jack Tobin	1923	103
62	78	Bibb Falk	1930	104
63	78	Justin Turner	2016	122
64	78	Hunter Pence	2014	113
65	78	Wally Judnich	1947	106
66	78	David DeJesus	2011	95
67	78	Don Baylor	1980	91
68	78	Austin Jackson	2018	64
69	78	Marlon Byrd	2009	111
70	78	Ken Griffey	1981	114
71	78	Brett Gardner	2015	104
72	78	Mark Kotsay	2007	75
73	78	Augie Galan	1943	138
74	78	Chick Fullis	1932	98
75	78	Wally Moon	1961	128
76	78	Bobby Higginson	2002	102
77	77	Brandon Phillips	2012	104
78	77	Chris Young	2015	108
79	77	Al Kaline	1966	153
80	77	Lloyd McClendon	1990	70
81	77	Nate Schierholtz	2015	0	DNP
82	77	Magglio Ordonez	2005	114
83	77	Carlos Gomez	2017	101
84	77	Rusty Greer	2000	104
85	77	Matt Joyce	2016	121
86	77	Buddy Bell	1983	112
87	77	Tommy Holmes	1948	111
88	77	Carl Furillo	1953	134
89	77	Tony Gonzalez	1968	98
90	77	Ken Landreaux	1986	88
91	77	Gabe Gross	2011	0	DNP
92	77	Hoot Evers	1952	100
93	77	Barney McCosky	1948	103
94	77	Chris Heisey	2016	98
95	77	Aaron Hill	2013	117
96	77	Bernard Gilkey	1998	78
97	76	Tom McBride	1946	96
98	76	Shannon Stewart	2005	93
99	76	Edd Roush	1924	111
100	76	Jeffrey Hammonds	2002	95

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		A groin injury prevented Pollock's grand return from being truly grand, but he still offered the usual dynamic power/speed dual threat when he was on the field. Providing nearly 3.0 WARP in just 112 games speaks to the type of player he is, but he has trouble staying in the lineup, having played more than 130 games in just two seasons and having never cracked 100 games in back-to-back years. It's possible that Pollock will never again reach the MVP-caliber heights of his 2015 season, but his all-around game is rare, and a hitter-friendly home ballpark pretties up his raw numbers.
2017		Pollock's busted elbow (for the second time) was effective in foreshadowing the disappointment the Diamondbacks would experience in 2016. He returned in late August to perform reasonably well at the plate, but was shut down again for a strained groin after just two weeks on the active roster, ending his season. Pollock's defense/power/speed combo still makes him one of the National League's most dynamic talents, and after breaking out for 5.2 WARP in 2015 he should be good to go on Opening Day.
2016		If you coded a baseball video game but didn't have the rights to use real major-league player names, A.J. Pollock would be a tremendous Jon Dowd-style knockoff name for Mike Trout. Fortuitously for Arizona, the existent Pollock's real skill set, on a smaller scale, feels comparable to the game's best player: premium center-field defense, speed and extra-base power. His only leg up on Trout's overall game is a noticeably smaller strikeout rate. He is, of course, four years Trout's senior, so 2015 was probably peak Pollock. But with three more years of team control, the Diamondbacks control an underpaid, dynamic outfielder, while most other teams go fish.
2015		Pollock was headed for a breakout season until an inside pitch from Johnny Cueto broke his right hand in late May. The three missed months kept him from chasing a 20/20 season or flagging down the Gold Glove consideration he deserves. He has good contact skills and his power extends beyond the wall thanks to a strong upper-body swing. Pollock can get passive and take strikes that should be offered at. His lower body is relatively quiet through his swing process but once the ball is in play his legs are a tremendous asset. Those last dozen words are true on defense, too: His long limbs allow him to close quickly and provide extended reach. Though he is a heady ballplayer with proficient awareness, he has the occasional misread; however, the physical tools typically bail him out. There will be a lot of turnover in Arizona in 2015, but Pollock should pick up where he left off.
2014		Between the otherworldly Mike Trout and World Series bench player Mike Carp, everybody wants a piece of the fishing action. True to his marine namesake, Pollock isn't a flashy fish but got the job done in a pinch, since he was one of the few Arizonans who didn't take a trip to Disabled List Lane, earning the center field job almost by default. Not that he didn't play well; he did. That and his health and the removal by trade of Adam Eaton will greatly assist Pollock's cause to keep his starting job.
2013		Arizona's second of two consecutive first-round picks in the 2009 draft, Pollock has the talent to be a future cog in a major-league outfield, though the presence of Parra and Pollock's similar skill set clouds his future in Phoenix. Pollock's offensive potential is heavily reliant on bat control to hit 'em where they ain't, and a lack of secondary skills puts tremendous pressure on the bat to continue spraying liners from gap to gap. The Notre Dame product can play all three outfield positions, while his makeup and baseball instincts receive high grades that should allow his performance to outplay his raw tools.
2012		Look up “tweener” in the dictionary, and—well, okay, you probably won’t find a picture of Pollock peering out at you, unless the editor had a large art budget and a keen awareness of Double-A prospects. Still, “tweener” is the term most often associated with Pollock, whose defense in center is still seen as fringy and whose bat isn’t quite big enough for a corner. He proved that he wouldn’t be hampered by any lingering effects of the elbow fracture that cost him all of 2010, upping his average from its 2009 level and stealing bases at an 84 percent clip. However, unless the D-Backs think he projects to replace Chris Young in center, he might be of more value to them as trade bait.
2011		A.J. Pollock missed the entire 2010 season with a fractured elbow. Some think he has potential as a 15-homer, 15-steal hitter with a batting average in the .280-.290 range. Others consider him a tweener, a fourth outfielder with little potential. Last year, we suggested that the reader stay tuned to Pollock's development, and in the absence of any further evidence, we'll repeat that recommendation for 2011.
2010		A budget 2009 first-round pick, A.J. Pollock has drawn mixed forecasts. Some see an outfielder capable of being a .280 to .290 hitter with 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases while others feel that he's no more than a hustling tweener. Stay tuned.

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