Baseball Prospectus

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Statistics For All Levels

Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 75)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	86	Chris Duffy	2008	0	DNP
2	84	Mikie Mahtook	2018	86
3	83	Leonys Martin	2016	82
4	82	Kevin Pillar	2017	87
5	82	Peter Bourjos	2015	71
6	81	Rusney Castillo	2016	70
7	80	Brian Anderson	2010	0	DNP
8	80	Nook Logan	2008	0	DNP
9	80	Roger Bernadina	2012	97
10	79	Corey Patterson	2008	60
11	79	Lorenzo Cain	2014	97
12	78	Angel Pagan	2010	103
13	78	Juan Lagares	2017	69
14	78	Aaron Rowand	2006	85
15	78	Franklin Gutierrez	2011	68
16	77	Marlon Byrd	2006	87
17	77	Emilio Bonifacio	2013	69
18	77	Ryan Langerhans	2008	83
19	77	Luis Matos	2007	0	DNP
20	77	Brandon Barnes	2014	68
21	77	Luis Terrero	2008	0	DNP
22	77	Rajai Davis	2009	99
23	76	Larry Bigbie	2006	64
24	76	Cameron Maybin	2015	92
25	76	Evar Swanson	1931	0	DNP
26	76	Josh Rutledge	2017	64
27	76	Gerald Laird	2008	92
28	76	Dick Williams	1957	78
29	75	Cory Sullivan	2008	90
30	75	Collin Cowgill	2014	87
31	75	Michael Bourn	2011	90
32	75	Hector Luna	2008	89
33	75	Ken Harvey	2006	0	DNP
34	75	Sam West	1933	102
35	75	Devon White	1991	109
36	75	Bobby Tolan	1974	85
37	75	Harry Craft	1943	0	DNP
38	74	Freddie Bynum	2008	42
39	74	Jake Powell	1937	73
40	74	Manny Martinez	1999	61
41	74	Jim Busby	1955	73
42	74	Jimmy Paredes	2017	0	DNP
43	74	Mookie Wilson	1984	94
44	74	Deion Sanders	1996	0	DNP
45	74	Carlos Gomez	2014	120
46	74	Todd Hollandsworth	2001	109
47	74	Drew Stubbs	2013	80
48	74	Brent Lillibridge	2012	55
49	74	Tim Beckham	2018	82
50	74	Eugenio Velez	2010	76
51	74	Ken Gerhart	1989	0	DNP
52	74	Roman Mejias	1959	83
53	74	Milt Thompson	1987	92
54	74	Marquis Grissom	1995	84
55	74	Miguel Olivo	2007	58
56	73	Brian McRae	1996	103
57	73	Travis Snider	2016	0	DNP
58	73	Mule Haas	1932	94
59	73	Danny Valencia	2013	119
60	73	Garry Maddox	1978	107
61	73	Pepper Martin	1932	87
62	73	Charlie Blackmon	2015	104
63	73	Willie Wilson	1984	100
64	73	Roy Weatherly	1943	96
65	73	Willie McGee	1987	89
66	73	Gary Woods	1983	83
67	73	Johnny Rucker	1945	84
68	73	Chris Nelson	2014	75
69	73	Bobby Brown	1982	82
70	73	Mike Devereaux	1991	104
71	73	Brandon Phillips	2009	101
72	73	Torii Hunter	2004	103
73	73	Nate Schierholtz	2012	89
74	73	Jeffrey Hammonds	1999	115
75	73	Joe Marty	1942	0	DNP
76	72	Trevor Crowe	2012	0	DNP
77	72	Alex Presley	2014	88
78	72	Xavier Nady	2007	103
79	72	Tony Scott	1980	68
80	72	Ronny Cedeno	2011	69
81	72	Abraham Almonte	2017	77
82	72	Henry Cotto	1989	100
83	72	Choo Freeman	2008	0	DNP
84	72	Kevin Kiermaier	2018	76
85	72	Bill Virdon	1959	87
86	72	Brendan Ryan	2010	65
87	72	Von Joshua	1976	76
88	72	David Murphy	2010	116
89	72	Xavier Paul	2013	97
90	72	Bill Hall	2008	81
91	72	A.J. Pollock	2016	99
92	72	Ethan Allen	1932	50
93	72	Jason Pridie	2012	113
94	72	Coco Crisp	2008	93
95	72	Terry Moore	1940	118
96	72	Willie Davis	1968	84
97	72	Angel Berroa	2008	66
98	72	Jerry Mumphrey	1981	114
99	72	Jeff Abbott	2001	78
100	72	Chris Singleton	2001	81

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2018		Despite showing no signs of tangible improvement from an awful 2016, Danny Santana inexplicably received even more playing time in 2017. It’ll be a miracle (or disaster, depending on your outlook) if the trend continues this season.
2017		Instead of merely regressing following his out-of-nowhere, BABIP-driven rookie excellence in 2014, Santana has been one of baseball’s worst players. He’s not without tools, but speed and athleticism haven’t turned him into an asset on the bases or in the field and his bat is an undisciplined mess. Among the 299 major leaguers with at least 500 plate appearances over the last two seasons, Santana ranks 296th in on-base percentage and 297th in slugging percentage, all while posting an abysmal 123/18 K/BB ratio. He’s still relatively young, and coaches seem to see promise in him, but through three seasons his .268/.302/.382 line matches his .276/.318/.399 mark in the minors and it’s unclear where he’d be a plus defensively.
2016		One of the ways in which Bill James first devised the Defensive Spectrum we know was by examining the relative offensive performance at various positions by guys who changed positions during their careers. It's a nebulous notion, but there's something to the idea that increased defensive responsibility or an attempt to play a tougher defensive spot can cut into the time a player has to dedicate to his offensive game. Santana might (or might not) be a worthwhile case study. A long-time minor-league shortstop with a balsa bat, Santana found success on both sides of the ledger when Minnesota thrust him into the starting center-field job in 2014. In 2015, with Aaron Hicks finding his way and Byron Buxton healthy, Santana moved back to shortstop and completely stopped doing positive things at the plate. Oh, and it turns out he's a pretty bad shortstop now.
2015		Let's start with the obvious: Charlie Kelly is more likely to correctly pronounce "Hawaiian luau" than Santana is to duplicate last year's ridiculous .405 BABIP. He clearly can hit, but he strikes out way too much and offers at too many pitches out of the zone to remain a .300 hitter. That being said, Santana's speed, gap power, defensive versatility and switch-hitting acumen should keep him in Minnesota's plans. He's an adequate if unspectacular shortstop, but last year's inevitable Aaron Hicks fail had the Twins asking Santana to learn center field on the fly; the young Dominican responded well and looked adequate if unspectacular. He'll never walk enough to hit at the top of the order or slug enough to be a run producer, but if the Twins plug him in at shortstop and slot him in the eight hole they'll be happy with the results.
2014		Speed and contact are Santana’s calling cards, as the willowy young shortstop swiped 30 bags last year, legged out 10 triples and hit for a decent average in his Double-A debut. He’s overly aggressive in every phase of the game, treating walks like a badge of cowardice, running into outs and amassing high error totals to undermine his strong arm and excellent range in the field. If Santana can smooth out the rough edges he can be a solid utility option, and with only the punchless law firm of Escobar and Florimon ahead of him on the depth chart, he might actually be an upgrade in the starting lineup.
2013		Daniel Santana is a bit error-prone at both second and short and has never played above High-A, but the Twins liked his improved bat enough to use a 40-man slot on him.

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