Biographical

Portrait of Joe Kelly

Joe Kelly PDodgers

Dodgers Player Cards | Dodgers Team Audit | Dodgers Depth Chart

2019 Projections (Rest of Season Projections - seasonal age 31)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
10.0 3.70 1.29 10 0 0 1 0.1
Birth Date6-9-1988
Height6' 1"
Weight174 lbs
Age31 years, 2 months, 13 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
-0.72015
0.02016
0.82017
0.32018
0.12019
proj
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA- WARP
2012 SLN MLB 24 16 107.0 5 7 0 112 36 75 10 97 9.4 3.0 0.8 6.3 0% .306 1.38 4.03 3.53 102 4.93 112.9 0.2
2013 SLN MLB 37 15 124.0 10 5 0 124 44 79 10 101 9.0 3.2 0.7 5.7 0% .289 1.35 3.98 2.69 108 4.79 114.7 0.1
2014 BOS 0 10 10 61.3 4 2 0 47 32 41 5 102 6.9 4.7 0.7 6.0 0% .237 1.29 4.64 4.11 114 5.12 125.4 -0.2
2014 SLN 0 7 7 35.0 2 2 0 41 10 25 3 101 10.5 2.6 0.8 6.4 0% .330 1.46 3.90 4.37 105 4.65 113.9 0.1
2015 BOS MLB 25 25 134.3 10 6 0 145 49 110 15 114 9.7 3.3 1.0 7.4 0% .320 1.44 4.14 4.82 108 5.50 128.4 -0.7
2016 BOS MLB 20 6 40.0 4 0 0 44 24 48 5 114 9.9 5.4 1.1 10.8 48% .358 1.70 4.28 5.18 104 5.10 112.8 0.0
2017 BOS MLB 54 0 58.0 4 1 0 42 27 52 3 6.5 4.2 0.5 8.1 51% .252 1.19 3.47 2.79 95 4.00 85.2 0.8
2018 BOS MLB 73 0 65.7 4 2 2 57 32 68 4 107 7.8 4.4 0.5 9.3 49% .301 1.36 3.60 4.39 99 4.56 101.8 0.3
2019 LAN MLB 45 0 42.7 5 3 1 42 17 54 5 99 8.9 3.6 1.1 11.4 63% .336 1.38 3.53 4.43 76 3.10 63.4 1.1
2014 TOT MLB 17 17 96.3 6 4 0 88 42 66 8 102 8.2 3.9 0.7 6.2 0% .000 1.35 4.37 4.20 111 4.94 121.3 -0.1
CareerMLB29579668.04828365427155260968.83.70.87.453%.2961.383.983.911034.80110.91.7

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg LG G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA-
2009 BAT A- NYP 16 2 30.3 2 3 1 33 11 30 0 103 9.8 3.3 0.0 8.9 0% .351 1.45 2.71 4.75 92 5.49 115.5
2010 QUD A MDW 26 18 103.3 6 8 1 103 45 92 3 106 9.0 3.9 0.3 8.0 0% .337 1.43 3.71 4.62 0 0.00 0.0
2011 PMB A+ FSL 12 11 72.7 5 2 0 56 34 62 1 93 6.9 4.2 0.1 7.7 0% .275 1.24 3.58 2.60 97 3.90 79.6
2011 SFD AA TEX 11 11 59.3 6 4 0 70 25 51 7 111 10.6 3.8 1.1 7.7 0% .358 1.60 4.70 5.01 101 6.51 132.8
2012 SLN MLB NL 24 16 107.0 5 7 0 112 36 75 10 97 9.4 3.0 0.8 6.3 0% .306 1.38 4.03 3.53 102 4.93 112.9
2012 MEM AAA PCL 12 12 72.3 2 5 0 75 21 45 2 93 9.3 2.6 0.2 5.6 0% .322 1.33 3.81 2.86 91 4.12 85.8
2013 SLN MLB NL 37 15 124.0 10 5 0 124 44 79 10 101 9.0 3.2 0.7 5.7 0% .289 1.35 3.98 2.69 108 4.79 114.7
2014 BOS MLB AL 10 10 61.3 4 2 0 47 32 41 5 102 6.9 4.7 0.7 6.0 0% .237 1.29 4.64 4.11 114 5.12 125.4
2014 SLN MLB NL 7 7 35.0 2 2 0 41 10 25 3 101 10.5 2.6 0.8 6.4 0% .330 1.46 3.90 4.37 105 4.65 113.9
2014 MEM AAA PCL 3 3 10.3 0 0 0 8 6 4 1 82 7.0 5.2 0.9 3.5 0% .226 1.35 5.92 2.61 129 4.83 102.2
2015 BOS MLB AL 25 25 134.3 10 6 0 145 49 110 15 114 9.7 3.3 1.0 7.4 0% .320 1.44 4.14 4.82 108 5.50 128.4
2015 PAW AAA INT 4 4 19.0 1 1 0 14 6 18 1 85 6.6 2.8 0.5 8.5 0% .265 1.05 3.04 2.84 90 3.30 72.3
2016 BOS MLB AL 20 6 40.0 4 0 0 44 24 48 5 114 9.9 5.4 1.1 10.8 48% .358 1.70 4.28 5.18 104 5.10 112.8
2016 LOW A- NYP 3 0 4.0 0 0 0 4 1 5 0 9.0 2.3 0.0 11.3 64% .364 1.25 1.51 4.50 80 3.24 71.5
2016 PAW AAA INT 17 4 35.0 1 1 2 29 6 46 1 97 7.5 1.5 0.3 11.8 57% .341 1.00 1.51 1.54 56 2.99 66.1
2017 BOS MLB AL 54 0 58.0 4 1 0 42 27 52 3 6.5 4.2 0.5 8.1 51% .252 1.19 3.47 2.79 95 4.00 85.2
2017 PAW AAA INT 1 0 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 50% .000 0.00 1.34 0.00 96 4.36 92.7
2018 BOS MLB AL 73 0 65.7 4 2 2 57 32 68 4 107 7.8 4.4 0.5 9.3 49% .301 1.36 3.60 4.39 99 4.56 101.8
2019 LAN MLB NL 45 0 42.7 5 3 1 42 17 54 5 99 8.9 3.6 1.1 11.4 63% .336 1.38 3.53 4.43 76 3.10 63.4

Plate Discipline

YEAR Pits Zone% Swing% Contact% Z-Swing% O-Swing% Z-Contact% O-Contact% SwStr%
2012 1686 0.4703 0.4472 0.8196 0.6066 0.3057 0.8898 0.6960 0.1804
2013 1951 0.4849 0.4464 0.8347 0.6173 0.2856 0.9024 0.6969 0.1653
2014 1568 0.4777 0.4063 0.8100 0.5995 0.2295 0.8775 0.6489 0.1900
2015 2373 0.4850 0.4164 0.8087 0.5925 0.2504 0.8930 0.6209 0.1913
2016 739 0.4465 0.4195 0.7290 0.6000 0.2738 0.8283 0.5536 0.2710
2017 1009 0.4747 0.4737 0.7552 0.6660 0.3000 0.8182 0.6289 0.2448
2018 1175 0.4757 0.4434 0.7428 0.6422 0.2630 0.8357 0.5370 0.2572
2019 730 0.4973 0.4205 0.7296 0.5895 0.2534 0.8178 0.5269 0.2704
Career112310.47810.43330.79290.61200.26940.87010.63070.2071

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-08-23 2014-08-27 DTD 4 4 Right Shoulder Soreness -
2014-04-17 2014-07-11 60-DL 85 78 Left Thigh Strain Hamstring - -
2013-09-18 2013-09-22 DTD 4 4 Right Lower Leg Strain Calf - -
2013-04-08 2013-04-15 DTD 7 6 Right Hand Contusion Batted Ball - -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2022 LAN $4,000,000
2021 LAN $8,833,333
2020 LAN $8,833,333
2019 LAN $3,333,334
2018 BOS $3,825,000
2017 BOS $2,800,000
2016 BOS $2,600,000
2015 BOS $603,000
2014 SLN $523,000
2013 SLN $490,000
YearsDescriptionSalary
7 yrPrevious$10,841,000
2019Current$3,333,334
8 yrPvs + Cur$14,174,334
3 yrFuture$21,666,666
11 yrTotal$35,841,000

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
6 y 29 dACES3 years/$25M (2019-21)

Details
  • 3 years/$25M (2019-21). Signed by LA Dodgers as a free agent 12/21/18. $1M signing bonus. 19:$3M, 20:$8.5M, 21:$8.5M, 22:$12M club option ($4M buyout). Performance bonuses: $0.25M each for 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55 games finished. $0.5M for 60 GF.
  • 1 year/$3.825M (2018). Re-signed by Boston 1/12/18 (avoided arbitration).
  • 1 year/$2.8M (2017). Re-signed by Boston 1/13/17 (avoided arbitration). Performance bonuses: $25,000 each for 5, 10 starts. $25,000 each for 50, 55 pitching appearances.
  • 1 year/$2.6M (2016). Re-signed by Boston 1/15/16 (avoided arbitration).
  • 1 year/$0.603M (2015). Re-signed by Boston 3/8/15.
  • 1 year/$0.523M (2014). Re-signed by St. Louis 3/14. Acquired by Boston in trade from St. Louis 7/31/14.
  • 1 year/$0.49M (2013). Re-signed by St. Louis 3/13.
  • 1 year (2012). Contract purchased by St. Louis 6/10/12.
  • Drafted by St. Louis 2009 (3-98) (UC-Riverside). $0.341M signing bonus.

2019 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA DRA VORP WARP
90o 0.5 0.4 1 9 0 23.9 17 8 25 2 .247 1.05 2.70 2.94 1.8 0.2
80o 0.5 0.4 1 9 0 18.9 14 7 20 2 .260 1.13 3.04 3.32 1.4 0.2
70o 0.5 0.4 1 9 0 15.4 12 6 16 1 .270 1.19 3.28 3.59 1.1 0.1
60o 0.5 0.4 1 9 0 12.5 10 5 13 1 .278 1.24 3.50 3.83 0.9 0.1
50o 0.5 0.4 1 9 0 9.9 9 4 10 1 .286 1.29 3.70 4.06 0.6 0.1
40o 0.5 0.5 1 9 0 7.3 7 3 8 1 .294 1.34 3.90 4.29 0.4 0.0
30o 0.5 0.5 1 9 0 4.6 4 2 5 1 .302 1.40 4.13 4.54 0.1 0.0
20o 0.5 0.5 1 9 0 1.6 2 1 2 0 .312 1.46 4.39 4.83 -0.2 0.0
Weighted Mean0.50.41909.284101.2841.283.674.030.70.1

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA DRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
20203231256059482361648.2971.203.724.167.33.59.30.90.5
20213331360063512566648.2941.203.794.237.23.69.40.90.5
20223431254058472360648.2971.213.804.257.33.69.40.90.4
20233531250053422055548.2921.173.704.137.13.49.30.80.5
20243621246049392051548.2901.213.834.287.23.79.40.90.3
20253721237039321540448.2961.223.844.297.43.59.30.90.3
20263821236038311539448.2981.213.844.297.33.69.20.90.3
20273921130032261332348.2961.233.914.377.43.79.10.90.2
20284011128030251231348.2931.233.934.397.53.69.30.90.2

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 75)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 91 Ryan Dempster 2008 3.27
2 83 Tyson Ross 2018 4.39
3 81 Whitey Ford 1960 3.50
4 81 David Phelps 2018 0.00 DNP
5 81 Alexi Ogando 2015 3.99
6 80 Bob Veale 1967 4.13
7 80 C.J. Wilson 2012 4.54
8 80 Clay Buchholz 2016 5.17
9 80 Orel Hershiser 1990 4.26
10 79 Tanner Roark 2018 4.49
11 79 Doug Davis 2007 4.67
12 78 Bob Gibson 1967 3.18
13 78 Tim Hudson 2007 3.49
14 78 Dan Jennings 2018 3.78
15 78 Jose Mesa 1997 3.06
16 78 Phil Niekro 1970 4.86
17 78 Carlos Zambrano 2012 5.10
18 77 Dennys Reyes 2008 2.33
19 77 A.J. Burnett 2008 4.43
20 77 Justin Masterson 2016 0.00 DNP
21 77 Gio Gonzalez 2017 3.09
22 77 Tom Wilhelmsen 2015 3.48
23 77 Terry Adams 2004 5.27
24 77 Bob Lemon 1952 2.99
25 77 Kevin Gregg 2009 4.98
26 76 Jake Westbrook 2009 0.00 DNP
27 76 Tom Gordon 1999 5.60
28 76 Kris Medlen 2017 0.00 DNP
29 76 Yovani Gallardo 2017 5.79
30 76 Larry Jackson 1962 4.32 DNP
31 75 Bill Hands 1971 4.16
32 75 Felix Hernandez 2017 4.78
33 75 Jeremy Affeldt 2010 4.50
34 75 Bob Rush 1957 4.85
35 75 Lance Lynn 2018 5.00
36 75 Dan Kolb 2006 5.21
37 75 Kevin Brown 1996 2.32
38 75 Jim Brosnan 1961 3.83
39 74 Kelvim Escobar 2007 3.63
40 74 Scott Feldman 2014 4.19
41 74 Burke Badenhop 2014 2.55
42 74 Derek Lowe 2004 6.75
43 74 Andrew Cashner 2018 5.71
44 74 Steve Rogers 1981 3.59
45 74 Bob Ojeda 1989 3.89
46 74 Guy Morton 1924 8.76
47 74 Doug Fister 2015 4.89
48 74 Bryan Morris 2018 0.00 DNP
49 73 Matt Wise 2007 5.03
50 73 George Pipgras 1931 4.90
51 73 Jeff Fassero 1994 3.50
52 73 Sam LeCure 2015 4.05
53 73 Lee Meadows 1926 5.04
54 73 Matt Clement 2006 6.89
55 73 Jack Morris 1986 3.54
56 73 Clem Labine 1958 4.76
57 73 Kevin Jepsen 2016 6.34
58 72 John Denny 1984 3.09
59 72 Jared Hughes 2017 3.32
60 72 Ramon Ramirez 2013 12.71
61 72 Sean Burnett 2014 13.50
62 72 Ronald Belisario 2014 6.51
63 72 Doug Drabek 1994 3.17
64 72 Anibal Sanchez 2015 5.10
65 72 John Grabow 2010 8.42
66 72 John Lackey 2010 4.77
67 72 Pedro Feliciano 2008 4.05
68 72 Warren Spahn 1952 3.26
69 72 Kevin Millwood 2006 4.77
70 72 Dean Chance 1972 0.00 DNP
71 72 Jared Burton 2012 3.05
72 72 Mike Garcia 1955 4.27
73 72 John Franco 1992 1.64
74 72 Rick Reuschel 1980 3.85
75 72 Tom Glavine 1997 3.23
76 71 Johnny Cueto 2017 4.70
77 71 John Parrish 2009 0.00 DNP
78 71 Roberto Hernandez 2012 9.42
79 71 Juan Rincon 2010 4.50
80 71 Cesar Ramos 2015 2.92
81 71 Matt Guerrier 2010 3.55
82 71 Matt Albers 2014 0.90
83 71 Phil Coke 2014 4.66
84 71 Wilbur Wood 1973 4.16
85 71 Sheriff Blake 1931 6.40
86 71 Josh Collmenter 2017 10.06
87 71 Fernando Rodney 2008 4.91
88 71 Eric O'Flaherty 2016 7.85
89 71 Mike Caldwell 1980 4.47
90 71 Chad Bradford 2006 3.34
91 71 Hyun-jin Ryu 2018 2.51
92 71 Chris Rusin 2018 6.91
93 71 Dave Goltz 1980 4.78
94 71 Luis Garcia 2018 6.07
95 71 Blaine Hardy 2018 3.87
96 71 Andy Messersmith 1977 4.75
97 71 Dizzy Trout 1946 2.70
98 71 Scot Shields 2007 4.32
99 71 Tony Watson 2016 3.33
100 71 Cliff Lee 2010 3.56

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2019  Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018 If we’ve said it once, we’ve said it a million times: Joe Kelly Has Great Luck. Wait, what? Despite the offensive outbreak around him, Kelly posted the lowest homer rate, second-lowest BABIP and third-best strand rate of his career in 2017. That would seem to make him a prime regression candidate, but hold your horses, because Kelly isn’t just fortunate, he also had Great Stuff™. Kelly’s average fastball velocity in 2017 was a ridiculous 99.3 mph, good for the fastest mark among qualified relievers not named Aroldis Chapman. Despite that uptick in velo, Kelly didn’t look like he was overthrowing the ball as much as in years past. His strikeout rate fell a bit, but so too did his walk rate, and that tradeoff seemed to work for him (though DRA is not impressed). Kelly missed some time with a hamstring strain in July, but he was a big part of why the Red Sox’s bullpen finished a surprising second in the American League in ERA.
2017 We’ve always known that Joe Kelly has Great Stuff™. Now he’s finally putting it to good use. After yet another disastrous stint as a starter, the Red Sox finally, mercifully moved Kelly to the bullpen in July. He responded by allowing just two earned runs in 17.2 innings, striking out 21 while walking just five. Kelly’s fastball routinely touched the upper-90s in relief, and hitters had a bear of a time trying to pull the ball against him. Couple Kelly’s hotter heat with his improved command out of the pen, and he certainly looks the part of a high-leverage, late-inning reliever. He's unlikely to get many Cy Young votes in such a role, it’s true, but perhaps no less likely than if he’d remained a starter.
2016 “Joe Kelly has great stuff” is a joke, you see. Not because it isn't true, but because to praise the quality of Kelly's offerings without citing his other attributes misses the big picture in the same manner as asking how Mrs. Lincoln enjoyed the play. Pitch movement and velocity are mighty trees, but command, control and sequencing make up much of the starting-pitcher forest, and only minding the former can make you miss the latter entirely. After predicting he'd win the Cy Young in spring training, Kelly pitched poorly enough to be demoted to Pawtucket in June. Most thought he'd move to the bullpen, but he was recalled as a starter in July, pitched horribly three times... and then inexplicably embarked on the best eight-game run of his career. Kelly went 7-0 with a 2.35 ERA from August 7th to September 15th before sitting out the rest of the season with shoulder soreness. That's why this is funny. Joe Kelly really does have great stuff. You just never know if he'll be able to use it.
2015 If we're going on pure stuff and not taking into account all of the other things that make a good pitcher good, Kelly should be better than he is. His power sinker features a ton of movement, his changeup, slider and curveball all have life and he generates plenty of groundballs. But Kelly struggles with command, and that has a starkly limiting effect on the overall effectiveness of his repertoire. It's not just the walks that hurt Kelly; it's his inability to place strikes where he wants them, and his inability to entice batters to swing at pitches just outside of the strike zone, and his inability to pitch from ahead in the count. Kelly has the ingredients needed to serve as a mid-rotation pitcher, but he's going to be more of a back-end option unless he gets better at working in and on the periphery of the strike zone, which is the premise of a lot more rejected screenplays than pictures in production.
2014 Box-score scouting will lead you astray in your analysis of Kellyit's easy to conclude from his stat line that hes a soft-tossing groundballer capable of eating innings but unable to dominate a lineup with raw stuff. Yet the bespectacled righty sits around 95 to 97 mph with his sinker and has devastating movement on all of his offerings. So whats with the meager strikeout rates? Commanding the aforementioned movement has been part of the problem (which explains his elevated walk rate as well). Kelly also doesnt earn enough whiffs with his heater. He used his fastball in 53 percent of two-strike counts, but netted a strikeout just 33 percent of time. This was below the league average, with the highest rates in the league checking in over 50 percent. Kelly isn't a finished product, but the foundation laid thus far is encouraging. He is already the best Joe Kelly to ever play the game (by bWAR), though he's got a long way to go to catch Hall of Famer Joe Kelley.
2013 Kelly is not considered a top prospect, but injuries forced him into the Cardinals rotation in June and he held down the fort admirably until Garcia returned. His mid-90s sinker can be a genuine worm-killer, but Kelly doesnt miss a lot of bats, his command can be shakier than a dashboard hula dancer, and his off-speed stuff is unremarkable. Given his height and the fact that lefties lit him up last yearonly the dessicated remains of Jason Marquis worked 100 innings and allowed a higher TAv than Kellys .333it seems likely Kellys future is in relief, with an occasional spot start.
2012 With a slight frame and an electric fastball that reaches the upper 90s, Joe Kelly fits the closer profile. But the Cardinals have him starting in the minors to work on his secondary pitches. He still lacks command but showed enough to earn a promotion to Double-A in July. Kelly generates impressive ground-ball rates and could move fast if he can harness his stuff.
2011 Hard-throwing righty Joe Kelly made a successful conversion to the rotation; he pitched better than his results, but needs to work on his secondary pitches or hell wind up back in the bullpen.

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC