Baseball Prospectus

MLB Statistics

Statistics for All Levels

Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 67)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	Run Average	Trend
1	81	Brian Sanches	2009	2.88
2	80	Josh Lueke	2015	0.00	DNP
3	77	Scott Dohmann	2008	6.14
4	75	Zac Rosscup	2018	4.76
5	75	Matt Daley	2012	0.00	DNP
6	74	Juan Perez	2009	0.00	DNP
7	74	Brian Omogrosso	2014	0.00	DNP
8	74	Chris Booker	2007	18.00
9	72	Joe Horgan	2007	0.00	DNP
10	72	Tyler Walker	2006	7.11
11	72	Jimmy Serrano	2006	0.00	DNP
12	72	Jack Taschner	2008	5.06
13	71	J.J. Hoover	2018	20.25
14	71	Austin Adams	2017	0.00	DNP
15	71	Fernando Cabrera	2012	0.00	DNP
16	71	Kirby Yates	2017	4.45
17	70	Kevin Walker	2007	0.00	DNP
18	70	Scott Cassidy	2006	3.80
19	70	Nate Field	2006	4.00
20	70	Matt White	2008	0.00	DNP
21	70	Greg Jones	2007	6.23
22	70	Fernando Abad	2016	3.86
23	70	Brandon Gomes	2015	4.27
24	69	Shawn Kelley	2014	4.53
25	69	Chris Bootcheck	2009	11.05
26	69	Buddy Carlyle	2008	3.73
27	69	Collin Balester	2016	0.00	DNP
28	68	Edwar Ramirez	2011	0.00	DNP
29	68	Chris Schroder	2009	0.00	DNP
30	68	Boone Logan	2015	4.33
31	67	Brad Voyles	2007	0.00	DNP
32	67	Ron Davis	1986	9.36
33	67	Chris Hatcher	2015	4.15
34	67	Bobby Ayala	2000	0.00	DNP
35	67	Joel Peralta	2006	4.52
36	66	Scott Service	1997	6.45
37	66	Evan Scribner	2016	0.00
38	66	Mark Guthrie	1996	2.71
39	66	Hector Ambriz	2014	9.00
40	66	Jakie May	1926	3.54
41	66	Mike Dunn	2015	4.50
42	65	Tyler Yates	2008	4.79
43	65	Marcos Mateo	2014	0.00	DNP
44	65	Lefty Weinert	1932	0.00	DNP
45	65	Joe Beckwith	1985	4.36
46	65	Blas Minor	1996	4.24
47	65	Dan Giese	2007	4.82
48	65	Joba Chamberlain	2016	3.15
49	65	Doug Bair	1980	4.45
50	65	Darin Downs	2015	0.00	DNP
51	65	Claude Raymond	1967	3.34
52	65	Jesse Chavez	2014	3.95
53	65	Russ Springer	1999	3.80
54	65	Wilkins Arias	2011	0.00	DNP
55	65	Frank Lacorte	1982	5.07
56	65	Arquimedes Caminero	2017	0.00	DNP
57	64	Tim Crews	1991	3.55
58	64	Chris Smith	2011	0.00	DNP
59	64	Winston Abreu	2007	6.23
60	64	Will Cunnane	2004	7.30
61	64	Marshall Bridges	1961	8.27
62	64	Jorge Julio	2009	8.83
63	64	Jason Anderson	2009	0.00	DNP
64	64	Steve Hamilton	1965	1.85
65	64	Mark Huismann	1988	5.06
66	64	Mike Myers	1999	5.23
67	64	John Henry Johnson	1987	10.25
68	64	Randy Keisler	2006	4.50
69	64	Vinnie Pestano	2015	6.94
70	64	Esmil Rogers	2016	0.00	DNP
71	64	Dan Boitano	1983	0.00	DNP
72	64	Ken Dayley	1989	3.11
73	64	Scott Atchison	2006	0.00	DNP
74	64	Edward Paredes	2017	3.24
75	64	Scott Proctor	2007	4.27
76	64	Ian Ostlund	2009	0.00	DNP
77	64	Jon Huber	2012	0.00	DNP
78	64	Matt Kinney	2007	0.00	DNP
79	64	Justin Miller	2008	5.01
80	64	Josh Ravin	2018	6.00
81	64	Darren Hall	1995	4.96
82	64	Mike Zagurski	2013	17.05
83	63	Josh Edgin	2017	3.89
84	63	Steve Delabar	2014	4.91
85	63	Tony Sipp	2014	3.55
86	63	Miguel Mejia	2018	0.00	DNP
87	63	Logan Kensing	2013	0.00
88	63	Frank Dipino	1987	3.60
89	63	Louis Coleman	2016	5.06
90	63	Shawn Camp	2006	5.16
91	63	Carmen Cali	2009	0.00	DNP
92	63	Esteban Yan	2005	4.86
93	63	Mike Stanton	1983	3.60
94	63	Alfredo Figaro	2015	0.00	DNP
95	63	Ed Roebuck	1962	4.60	DNP
96	63	Randy Flores	2006	6.26
97	63	Yoanner Negrin	2014	0.00	DNP
98	63	Francisco Butto	2010	0.00	DNP
99	62	Felix Romero	2010	0.00	DNP
100	62	Chad Gaudin	2013	3.15

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		In 2016, Smoker's strikeout rate rivaled those of Andrew Miller and Craig Kimbrel. He didn't quite live up to those numbers last season—nor did anyone expect him to—and a doubling of his walk rate leaves something to be desired, but all of that means less than just playing in the majors. (Remember, this Georgia native played in the independent leagues as recently as 2014.) With a replacement-level 2017, no one would dare make the Rich Hill comparison, but there's still a little upside here, and Smoker's story—unlike so many in baseball—is one of hope and a little bit of luck. All the best comeback stories are.
2017		A 2009 first-round pick by the Nationals, Smoker has had a long and winding road to the big leagues that is equal parts perseverance and blind luck. Shoulder injuries of increasing severity robbed him of velocity and ultimately his prospectdom with Washington, and Smoker was out of organized baseball by the end of the 2013 season. He caught on as a reliever with the Rockford Aviators of the independent Frontier League after an open tryout in 2014, but wasn't good enough there to catch any eyes. Through happenstance, Smoker's usual bullpen catcher was unavailable one day early in 2015, so an independent league coach named Paul Fletcher filled in. Fletcher also happened to be doing bird dog scout work for the Mets on the side, and tipped the organization off that he had found a lefty throwing in the mid-90s. Smoker, once again possessing an electric fastball along with a quality splitter and slider, got a tryout and was signed shortly thereafter. He opened the 2015 season as a 26-year-old reliever in the the Sally League. By the end of 2015, he'd conquered Double-A and made it onto the 40-man roster. By the end of 2016, he was averaging 96 on that fastball and his strikeout rate sat between Andrew Miller's and Craig Kimbrel's. That's a long way from Rockford.
2016		Former first-rounder Josh Smoker touched 99 from the left side at Double-A in his quest to resurrect his career after two arm surgeries and two years away from minor-league ball. Only health can hold him back.
2013		Injuries and the resulting ineffectiveness have mired Josh Smoker in the lower levels, and the 2007 first-rounder, who once had an impressive array of pitches, is now a long shot to ever reach the majors.
2012		Finally healthy again and converted to relief, Josh Smoker had his best season yet, throwing with the velocity that helped make him the 31st overall selection of the 2007 draft.

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC

Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2024, Josh Smoker threw 1,485 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2016 and 2019, all of them occuring in Spring Training. In 2019, he relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (91mph), also mixing in a Change (81mph).