Baseball Prospectus

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Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 79)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	Run Average	Trend
1	88	Joakim Soria	2015	2.66
2	88	Greg McMichael	1998	5.16
3	88	Bobby Jenks	2012	0.00	DNP
4	88	Bruce Sutter	1984	1.98
5	87	Willie Hernandez	1986	3.65
6	86	Gene Garber	1979	5.60
7	85	Jeff Montgomery	1993	2.27
8	85	Darren O'Day	2014	1.83
9	85	Brett Cecil	2018	7.44
10	85	Chad Qualls	2010	8.54
11	84	Steve Cishek	2017	2.01
12	84	Jake McGee	2018	6.66
13	84	Luke Gregerson	2015	3.54
14	84	Nick Masset	2013	0.00	DNP
15	83	Adam Ottavino	2017	5.06
16	83	Joe Nathan	2006	1.58
17	83	Sparky Lyle	1976	2.86
18	83	Scot Shields	2007	4.32
19	83	Francisco Rodriguez	2013	2.70
20	83	Sean Marshall	2014	9.00
21	83	Jon Rauch	2010	3.12
22	81	Robb Nen	2001	3.24
23	81	Pedro Feliciano	2008	4.05
24	81	Ryan Madson	2012	0.00	DNP
25	81	Casey Janssen	2013	2.91
26	81	Norm Charlton	1994	0.00	DNP
27	81	Scott Linebrink	2008	3.88
28	81	Al Holland	1984	3.48
29	80	Jason Isringhausen	2004	3.23
30	80	Sean Doolittle	2018	1.60
31	80	Jonathan Papelbon	2012	2.83
32	80	Jesse Crain	2013	1.47
33	80	Fernando Rodney	2008	4.91
34	80	Nate Jones	2017	2.31
35	79	Rafael Soriano	2011	4.12
36	79	Wade Davis	2017	2.45
37	79	Rafael Betancourt	2006	4.13
38	79	Jim Kern	1980	5.54
39	79	Tony Watson	2016	3.33
40	79	Steve Karsay	2003	0.00	DNP
41	79	Heath Bell	2009	2.71
42	78	Brendan Donnelly	2003	1.70
43	78	Paul Shuey	2002	3.84
44	78	Nick Vincent	2018	4.47
45	78	Jose Valverde	2009	2.50
46	78	Matt Bush	2017	5.16
47	78	Aaron Heilman	2010	4.50
48	78	Kevin Gregg	2009	4.98
49	78	Jeff Nelson	1998	4.02
50	78	Dan Wheeler	2009	3.75
51	78	Sean Burnett	2014	13.50
52	78	Tommy Hunter	2018	3.94
53	78	Lee Smith	1989	3.69
54	78	Jeff Fassero	1994	3.50
55	77	Michael Wuertz	2010	4.76
56	77	Rollie Fingers	1978	2.77
57	77	Matt Guerrier	2010	3.55
58	77	Mike MacDougal	2008	2.12
59	77	Brian Fuentes	2007	3.82
60	77	Jeremy Affeldt	2010	4.50
61	77	Doug Corbett	1984	2.33
62	77	Jason Motte	2013	0.00	DNP
63	77	Jason Frasor	2009	2.65
64	77	John Grabow	2010	8.42
65	77	Darren Holmes	1997	5.84
66	77	Frank Francisco	2011	3.73
67	77	Damaso Marte	2006	4.63
68	76	Justin Duchscherer	2009	0.00	DNP
69	76	Kyle Farnsworth	2007	5.25
70	76	B.J. Ryan	2007	14.54
71	76	Brad Brach	2017	3.57
72	76	Lindy McDaniel	1967	4.21
73	76	Junichi Tazawa	2017	5.69
74	76	J.J. Putz	2008	3.88
75	76	Scott Williamson	2007	5.02
76	75	Joaquin Benoit	2009	0.00	DNP
77	75	Keith Foulke	2004	2.39
78	75	Juan Rincon	2010	4.50
79	75	Joe Page	1949	3.01
80	75	J.P. Howell	2014	2.57
81	75	Joel Hanrahan	2013	9.82
82	75	David Riske	2008	5.31
83	75	David Hernandez	2016	3.84
84	74	Ramon Ramirez	2013	12.71
85	74	John Franco	1992	1.64
86	74	Mike Jackson	1996	4.00
87	74	Rich Gossage	1983	2.78
88	74	Daniel Hudson	2018	4.89
89	74	Kevin Jepsen	2016	6.34
90	74	Trevor Hoffman	1999	3.07
91	74	Will Ohman	2009	5.84
92	74	Billy Wagner	2003	1.88
93	74	Fernando Salas	2016	3.91
94	73	Peter Moylan	2010	3.39
95	73	Bryan Harvey	1994	5.23
96	73	Jesse Orosco	1988	3.06
97	73	Mike Timlin	1997	3.72
98	73	Gary Lavelle	1980	3.96
99	73	Tyler Clippard	2016	3.86
100	72	Kiko Calero	2006	3.41

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		In The Iliad, the Greek hero Hector is slain at the end by Achilles, who then proceeds to drag his lifeless body around on a chariot for 12 days. This is not necessarily what happened to Rondon, but he did fall out of Joe Maddon's good graces when it came to any sort of high-leverage inning, and last year he was left off the postseason roster entirely. That walk rate did get Trojan horsed, especially against left-handers, and while he did endure a couple arm injuries, the velocity hasn't shown it. He doesn't look comfortable setting up the closer—the job he lost for no great reason other than Aroldis Chapman and then Wade Davis appeared—and that's going to hurt his stock, which is weird since Hector in Ancient Greek literally means "to hold."
2017		By DRA last season was the best of Rondon’s career, but you wouldn’t know it by the press he got. After emerging as one of the league’s better closers in 2015, Rondon was supplanted midseason by Chicago’s deadline acquisition of Aroldis Chapman. He spent some time on the disabled list and generally flew well under the radar for much of the season. Don’t let that fool you. Rondon can throw nearly as fast as anyone but Chapman, with somewhat better control and a much better ground-ball rate. His slider, when it’s on, is devastating. And he’s proven, over the last three seasons, that he isn’t afraid of big moments. Not many relievers are consistently great year over year. Rondon may be one of them.
2016		The most successful Rule 5 pick in recent Cubs history (the only competition being Josh Hamilton, who, oops, they traded to Cincinnati), Rondon has elevated from fringe Indians prospect to shutdown closer. His 2015 innovation was to lean more heavily on his high-90s hard sinker, which in retrospect is kind of obvious: My dude, you've got a 97 mph sinker—throw it! The result of listening to our sage advice was an ERA in the Chapman-Greinke-Arrieta-Giles zone. FIP suggests his improvement wasn't necessarily in his sphere of influence, but still grades him as excellent: He was sandwiched between Gerrit Cole, Chris Sale, Craig Kimbrel and Jacob deGrom on the FIP leaderboards. He's 28 and hasn't hit the DL in the major leagues, but we won't hold it against you if you're still not buying; There Is No Such Thing As A Consistent Relief Pitcher, after all.
2015		It doesn't take long to name every Rule 5 draft success story. (Let's try! Johan Santana, Josh Hamilton, Dan Uggla, Joakim Soria, Everth Cabrera, Darren O'Day, Luis Ayala, Jay Gibbons. Bar trivia!) Rondon may be getting close to the list, as he started hitting the upper 90s with regularity late in 2013 and the trend continued last year, leading to good, if sparse, work in the closer's role. He's not all blazing guns, either: He breaks out a two-plane slider as a put-away pitch, especially to righties. It has the kind of short, tight movement that physicist Alan Nathan has identified as the likely cause of the baseball concept of "late break," a term that also aptly describes Rondon's newfound opportunity to earn the Proven Closer label, and the riches it implies.
2014		Rondon started last season as a Rule 5 pick who had lost most of the previous three seasons to elbow problems, but he finished it as a bullpen phoenix. He was certifiably awful for most of the season, but the rest of the Cubs' relief corps had built such an impenetrable Fortress of Suckitude around him that hardly anyone noticed, and Rondon kept getting chances until something clicked. A semblance of the excellent command he had shown in his Cleveland days reappeared, and he started putting up zeroes in September. His mid-90s fastball can work in the middle innings, and the long layoff means Rondon has more upside than most 26-year-olds.
2012		Beginning rehab from Tommy John surgery at the conclusion of the 2011 season and continuing in the Venezuelan Winter League, Hector Rondon boasts a good fastball, developing breaking pitches, and plus command, giving him third-starter potential if he recovers well from TJ.
2011		Once one of the brighter young arms in the system, Hector Rondon suffered through an ineffective and injury-plagued 2010.
2010		Featuring a combination of quality stuff and plus command, Rondon can touch 95 mph with his fastball, but walked more than two batters just once in 27 appearances in 2009. After impressing in the first half of his age-21 season at Double-A, Rondon didn't embarrass himself in a second-half intro to Triple-A, so he's surviving the fast track. Although he's immediately in contention for a starting spot in the rotation come 2010—it's a pulse-optional battle royale—the likely scenario is that he'll be back at Columbus to work on his secondary offerings. Since he's so often around the plate, he needs better breaking stuff to change batter's eye levels. Given his age, the Indians see no need to rush him to the majors.
2009		One of the nice things about signing teenagers is that they're usually still physically developing, and sometimes that leads to a jump in velocity. Rondon pumped his fastball into the mid-90s, which helped result in a highly impressive season and a midsummer showcase in the Futures Game at Yankee Stadium, where he threw a clean inning for the victorious World team. Besides Miller, Rondon is the team's best right-handed pitching prospect, but he needs to work on improving his slider at a season-opening assignment to Double-A.

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC

Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2024, Héctor Rondón threw 7,688 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2010 and 2021, all of them occuring in Spring Training. In 2021, he relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (94mph) and Slider (84mph), also mixing in a Sinker (94mph). He also rarely threw a Change (88mph).