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Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 76)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	88	George Brett	1987	138
2	87	Aramis Ramirez	2012	128
3	84	Chipper Jones	2006	150
4	83	Wade Boggs	1992	107
5	83	Scott Rolen	2009	116
6	82	David Wright	2017	0	DNP
7	82	Stan Hack	1944	95
8	81	Chase Utley	2013	122
9	81	Robinson Cano	2017	108
10	81	Mike Lowell	2008	114
11	80	Charlie Gehringer	1937	151
12	79	Lefty O'Doul	1931	119
13	79	Kevin Youkilis	2013	86
14	79	Luis Gonzalez	2002	136
15	79	Todd Helton	2008	113
16	79	Adrian Beltre	2013	149
17	78	Ben Zobrist	2015	119
18	78	Brian Giles	2005	133
19	78	Rocky Colavito	1968	125
20	78	Hideki Matsui	2008	107
21	77	Sid Gordon	1952	142
22	77	Vladimir Guerrero	2009	102
23	77	Ted Kluszewski	1959	87
24	77	Mark Teixeira	2014	104
25	77	Gary Sheffield	2003	161
26	77	Magglio Ordonez	2008	123
27	77	Dixie Walker	1945	115
28	77	Carl Yastrzemski	1974	140
29	76	Frank McCormick	1945	116
30	76	Tris Speaker	1922	155
31	76	Minnie Minoso	1960	121
32	76	Billy Williams	1972	178
33	76	Adrian Gonzalez	2016	106
34	76	Barry Larkin	1998	125
35	76	Al Kaline	1969	122
36	76	Carlos Lee	2010	98
37	75	Eddie Murray	1990	153
38	75	Edgar Martinez	1997	158
39	75	Carlos Beltran	2011	139
40	75	Rod Carew	1980	125
41	75	Carlos Guillen	2010	94
42	75	Zack Wheat	1922	115
43	75	Riggs Stephenson	1932	122
44	75	Paul Waner	1937	127
45	75	Joe Harris	1925	123
46	75	Rico Carty	1974	100
47	75	Rickey Henderson	1993	152
48	75	Paul Konerko	2010	154
49	75	Aubrey Huff	2011	93
50	75	John Olerud	2003	109
51	74	Sal Bando	1978	129
52	74	Kent Hrbek	1994	103
53	74	Stan Spence	1949	96
54	74	Melvin Mora	2006	96
55	74	Ryan Klesko	2005	109
56	74	Toby Harrah	1983	112
57	74	Ken Boyer	1965	106
58	74	Edwin Encarnacion	2017	142
59	74	Bill Dickey	1941	104
60	74	Albert Pujols	2014	130
61	74	Brian Downing	1985	127
62	74	Yogi Berra	1959	114
63	74	Enos Slaughter	1950	104
64	74	Albert Belle	2001	0	DNP
65	74	Bill Madlock	1985	104
66	74	Frank Thomas	2002	125
67	74	Matt Holliday	2014	128
68	74	Del Pratt	1922	121
69	73	Andre Ethier	2016	86
70	73	Rafael Palmeiro	1999	159
71	73	Hanley Ramirez	2018	93
72	73	Rusty Staub	1978	114
73	73	Miguel Tejada	2008	86
74	73	Norm Cash	1969	121
75	73	Hal McRae	1980	126
76	73	Ken Caminiti	1997	133
77	73	Justin Morneau	2015	103
78	73	Buddy Bell	1986	118
79	73	Monte Irvin	1953	139
80	73	Brooks Robinson	1971	119
81	73	Sam Rice	1924	109
82	73	Edd Roush	1927	90
83	73	Keith Hernandez	1988	105
84	73	Moises Alou	2001	138
85	73	Goose Goslin	1935	98
86	72	Brian Roberts	2012	77
87	72	Shane Victorino	2015	82
88	72	Bernie Williams	2003	114
89	72	J.D. Drew	2010	113
90	72	Augie Galan	1946	138
91	72	Frankie Frisch	1932	94
92	72	Robin Yount	1990	109
93	72	David Justice	2000	135
94	72	Paul Molitor	1991	139
95	72	Eddie Mathews	1966	103
96	72	Joe Morgan	1978	110
97	72	Joey Votto	2018	124
98	72	Shin-Soo Choo	2017	105
99	72	Mike Sweeney	2008	102
100	72	Don Money	1981	84

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		The fly-ball revolution was definitely televised, if only to a certain percentage of Southern California homes with a certain cable subscription. For those fortunate few, however, it was a real treat to watch the ginger Animal doppelgänger at the heart of the Dodgers' powerful lineup put on a fireworks display above Chavez Ravine every night. And talk about a revolutionary effort: Turner dramatically altered his approach, ultimately taking more walks than he suffered strikeouts. He nearly put up more extra-base hits than whiffs, too, as he continued a now four-year trend of driving a whole bunch more balls in the air. The glove gets mixed reviews from assorted defensive metrics, but given the evolution of the bat into an elite asset, LA has to be feeling cautiously optimistic about the three years remaining on his deal, even as he wades further into over-30 waters.
2017		Having missed significant time in each of the last two seasons, it was expected that Turner would miss more in 2016, following offseason microfracture surgery. Instead, he produced his greatest season (by WARP) to date on the back of a career-high in games played. While there was a slight decline in his level of play, most of that came via a slow start, as he slashed .247/.330/.325 in April, but recorded an .861 OPS the rest of the way. Coming off a walk-year performance that kicked it into overdrive, it's difficult to imagine a balanced Dodgers lineup without Turner it. Now that the former Titan and seventh-round pick has gotten his big payday, we'll finally learn the answer to the age-old question: who got the hooch?
2016		The age of #lolMets may be behind us, but Turner has produced 8.4 WARP for the Dodgers since New York decided to non-tender him after 2013. Baseball's Tormund Giantsbane was outstanding once again in 2015, hitting new career highs in homers, ISO, plate appearances and facial hair. He primarily manned the hot corner, but also filled in at first and second and even made a brief cameo at short. Despite his atypical career, Turner has done enough over the past three years to prove that his bat is real, and he can be used either as a solid starter or one of the best utilitymen in the game. The only real concern here is his knee. No, not because of the infected ingrown hair that cost Turner a midseason DL stint, but the microfracture surgery he required after the season ended. He survived Hardhome, though, so this shouldn't sideline him for long.
2015		The Mets have done a lot of questionable things over the last few years (decades), but non-tendering Turner after 2013 takes the red velvet cake. The Dodgers signed him for a million bucks and it paid off by ... well, you can read the stats above. Really, take a minute. Turner filled in for Juan Uribe when the third baseman was injured then, over the next three months (52 games, 31 starts), teamed with Scott Van Slyke to form the majors' best bench. He won't hit like 2014 again, wrote The Obvious Prognosticator, but that doesn't mean he's not a useful, valuable utilityman who hits more than many teams get from their middle-infield starters. And even if he decides to completely fall off the map with his bat, he'll still be the life of the clubhouse clinch party: Turner brought a mason jar of Blackberry Ole Smoky Tennessee Moonshine to the Dodgers' celebration after claiming the NL West crown in late September. If it sounds horrifying, that's because it is.
2014		If Justin Turner didn't already feel like God is watching over him, then witnessing the Mets’ sheer number of poor-fielding infield prospects would have converted him by now. They kept booting it around the infield, and Turner ended up as comfortable in his role as any utilityman in the league. Lo and behold, Turner has established enough of an offensive track record that he's never a total disaster when a starter pulls a hammy. He’ll never, ever—not ever—be more than what he is now, but his defensive versatility retains a bit of value. He even made a one-inning cameo in left field, which felt like something his agent thought he should have on his resumé heading into free agency.
2013		A list of Turner's virtues as a utilityman: He makes the league minimum; he's halfway decent with the bat; he's perfectly willing to give any position the ol' college try; and he used Carly Rae Jepsen's smash hit "Call Me Maybe" as his walkup music. A list of Turner's deficiencies: Nobody makes the minimum forever; halfway decent isn't all-the-way decent; the "college try" isn't worth much in the big leagues because the pitchers are a hell of a lot tougher than they were at Fullerton; and "Call Me Maybe" is ... well, there's not actually anything bad to say about "Call Me Maybe." As with Lutz, a team with low expectations should not be overly concerned about doing better than Turner on the bench.
2012		The revolving door at second base for the Mets in 2011 finally stopped in late May with Turner, who held onto the job simply by being not awful. He's one of those college second baseman who played a big role at a big program (Cal State Fullerton) and is loved by teams for his grit and energy and love of the game and all that jazz. Those are wonderful qualities, but they can only get you so far, and Turner is low on tools. You're already looking at his upside, which means the Mets should already be looking for his replacement.
2011		Turner barely spent any time in the majors with either the Orioles or the Mets, who grabbed him on waivers from the former club, but improved on his boring 2009 campaign at Norfolk with a combined .316/.374/.478 line at Triple-A. He isn't the most adept fielder, but the little guy can hit well enough to hold down a spot at second. He's something of a right-handed version of Daniel Murphy, with a contact-oriented bat more geared to singles and doubles than walks and home runs. Turner gives the Mets another entrant in their second base derby after Murphy and Brad Emaus. Failing that, he could be the Jeff Keppinger-style utility player the Mets failed to exploit back when they had the actual Jeff Keppinger.
2010		Turner was one of three players (with the unlamented Ryan Freel and Brandon Waring) that the Orioles got from the Reds for Ramon Hernandez. Turner doesn't profile as more than a utility player in the majors, and even in that role he's scraping replacement level. His only plus skill is hitting for average; his only other pluses come in the non-skill categories of attitude and willingness to play wherever he's needed. He does have a pronounced platoon split, so perhaps he can carve out a role for himself as a kind of modern-day Garth Iorg, spelling Josh Bell against left-handers.

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