Portrait of Tim Lincecum

Tim Lincecum PRangers

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2019 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 35)
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Birth Date6-15-1984
Height5' 11"
Weight170 lbs
Age35 years, 8 months, 2 days
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
2007 SFN MLB 24 24 146.3 7 5 0 122 65 150 12 98 7.5 4.0 0.7 9.2 0% .283 1.28 3.56 4.00 81 2.78 57.5 4.7
2008 SFN MLB 34 33 227.0 18 5 0 182 84 265 11 96 7.2 3.3 0.4 10.5 0% .304 1.17 2.58 2.62 71 2.47 52.6 7.8
2009 SFN MLB 32 32 225.3 15 7 0 168 68 261 10 90 6.7 2.7 0.4 10.4 0% .282 1.05 2.29 2.48 68 2.55 54.7 7.6
2010 SFN MLB 33 33 212.3 16 10 0 194 76 231 18 89 8.2 3.2 0.8 9.8 0% .310 1.27 3.17 3.43 79 3.04 68.5 5.5
2011 SFN MLB 33 33 217.0 13 14 0 176 86 220 15 89 7.3 3.6 0.6 9.1 0% .281 1.21 3.13 2.74 83 3.10 71.9 5.1
2012 SFN MLB 33 33 186.0 10 15 0 183 90 190 23 93 8.9 4.4 1.1 9.2 0% .309 1.47 4.21 5.18 90 3.14 72.0 4.4
2013 SFN MLB 32 32 197.7 10 14 0 184 76 193 21 98 8.4 3.5 1.0 8.8 0% .300 1.32 3.70 4.37 96 3.52 84.3 3.4
2014 SFN MLB 33 26 155.7 12 9 1 154 63 134 19 97 8.9 3.6 1.1 7.7 0% .299 1.39 4.27 4.74 98 3.98 97.6 1.6
2015 SFN MLB 15 15 76.3 7 4 0 75 38 60 7 85 8.8 4.5 0.8 7.1 0% .300 1.48 4.31 4.13 110 4.62 107.9 0.4
2016 ANA MLB 9 9 38.3 2 6 0 68 23 32 11 100 16.0 5.4 2.6 7.5 43% .432 2.37 7.12 9.16 133 8.73 193.3 -1.5

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
2006 SLO A- NWN 2 2 4.2 0 0 0 1 0 10 0 2.1 0.0 0.0 21.4 0% .250 0.24 -1.51 0.00 0 0.00 0.0
2006 SJO A+ CLF 6 6 27.0 2 0 0 13 12 48 3 4.3 4.0 1.0 16.0 0% .222 0.93 2.98 2.00 0 0.00 0.0
2007 SFN MLB NL 24 24 146.3 7 5 0 122 65 150 12 98 7.5 4.0 0.7 9.2 0% .283 1.28 3.56 4.00 81 2.78 57.5
2007 FRE AAA PCL 5 5 31.0 4 0 0 12 11 46 0 96 3.5 3.2 0.0 13.4 0% .214 0.74 1.72 0.29 49 1.17 23.9
2008 SFN MLB NL 34 33 227.0 18 5 0 182 84 265 11 96 7.2 3.3 0.4 10.5 0% .304 1.17 2.58 2.62 71 2.47 52.6
2009 SFN MLB NL 32 32 225.3 15 7 0 168 68 261 10 90 6.7 2.7 0.4 10.4 0% .282 1.05 2.29 2.48 68 2.55 54.7
2010 SFN MLB NL 33 33 212.3 16 10 0 194 76 231 18 89 8.2 3.2 0.8 9.8 0% .310 1.27 3.17 3.43 79 3.04 68.5
2011 SFN MLB NL 33 33 217.0 13 14 0 176 86 220 15 89 7.3 3.6 0.6 9.1 0% .281 1.21 3.13 2.74 83 3.10 71.9
2012 SFN MLB NL 33 33 186.0 10 15 0 183 90 190 23 93 8.9 4.4 1.1 9.2 0% .309 1.47 4.21 5.18 90 3.14 72.0
2013 SFN MLB NL 32 32 197.7 10 14 0 184 76 193 21 98 8.4 3.5 1.0 8.8 0% .300 1.32 3.70 4.37 96 3.52 84.3
2014 SFN MLB NL 33 26 155.7 12 9 1 154 63 134 19 97 8.9 3.6 1.1 7.7 0% .299 1.39 4.27 4.74 98 3.98 97.6
2015 SFN MLB NL 15 15 76.3 7 4 0 75 38 60 7 85 8.8 4.5 0.8 7.1 0% .300 1.48 4.31 4.13 110 4.62 107.9
2016 ANA MLB AL 9 9 38.3 2 6 0 68 23 32 11 100 16.0 5.4 2.6 7.5 43% .432 2.37 7.12 9.16 133 8.73 193.3
2016 SLC AAA PCL 7 7 38.3 0 3 0 30 14 37 2 106 7.0 3.3 0.5 8.7 48% .267 1.15 3.80 3.76 90 2.33 51.5
2018 ROU AAA PCL 10 0 12.7 1 1 0 14 9 10 2 9.9 6.4 1.4 7.1 53% .316 1.82 6.58 5.68 123 6.64 140.5

Plate Discipline

YEAR Pits Zone% Swing% Contact% Z-Swing% O-Swing% Z-Contact% O-Contact% SwStr%
2008 3328 0.4892 0.4564 0.7235 0.6118 0.3076 0.8163 0.5468 0.2765
2009 3402 0.4868 0.4292 0.7322 0.5598 0.3053 0.8371 0.5497 0.2678
2010 3406 0.4888 0.4551 0.7400 0.6012 0.3153 0.8392 0.5592 0.2600
2011 3576 0.4438 0.4382 0.7313 0.6093 0.3017 0.8335 0.5667 0.2687
2012 3275 0.4495 0.4382 0.7192 0.6168 0.2923 0.8458 0.5009 0.2808
2013 3225 0.4620 0.4431 0.7250 0.5852 0.3210 0.8612 0.5117 0.2750
2014 2657 0.4735 0.4373 0.7599 0.6002 0.2909 0.8623 0.5700 0.2401
2015 1296 0.4468 0.4390 0.7329 0.6166 0.2957 0.8515 0.5330 0.2671
2016 806 0.4218 0.4330 0.7364 0.6471 0.2768 0.8545 0.5349 0.2636

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-05-28 2014-05-28 DTD 0 0 Right Fingers Blister Middle Finger -
2014-04-02 2014-04-03 DTD 1 1 - General Medical Illness - -
2014-03-29 2014-03-31 Camp 2 0 Left Knee Contusion Batted Ball - -
2013-03-02 2013-03-12 Camp 10 0 Right Fingers Blister Middle Finger - -
2012-05-25 2012-05-25 DTD 0 0 Right Fingers Blister Middle Finger - -
2012-05-20 2012-05-20 DTD 0 0 Left Thumb Sprain - -
2012-02-21 2012-02-28 Camp 7 0 - Low Back Soreness - -
2011-07-21 2011-07-28 DTD 7 5 - General Medical Illness Flu - -
2011-02-16 2011-02-25 Camp 9 0 Neck Spasms -
2010-10-07 2010-10-07 DTD 0 0 Right Fingers Blister -
2010-06-16 2010-06-22 DTD 6 4 Right Shoulder Contusion Batted Ball -
2010-03-27 2010-04-05 Camp 9 0 Right Fingers Laceration Middle Finger -
2009-09-04 2009-09-14 DTD 10 9 Left Low Back Spasms -
2009-04-13 2009-04-18 DTD 5 4 - General Medical Illness - -
2009-03-12 2009-03-18 Camp 6 0 General Medical Respiratory Flu -
2009-02-22 2009-02-25 Camp 3 0 Infection Conjunctivitis -
2008-09-18 2008-09-18 DTD 0 0 Left Hand Contusion HBP -
2008-08-12 2008-08-12 DTD 0 0 Right Knee Contusion Batted Ball -
2008-07-14 2008-07-20 DTD 6 2 General Medical Illness Flu -
2008-03-13 2008-03-23 Camp 10 0 Right Groin Strain -


Year Team Salary
2018 TEX $1,000,000
2016 ANA $
2015 SFN $18,000,000
2014 SFN $17,000,000
2013 SFN $22,250,000
2012 SFN $18,250,000
2011 SFN $14,000,000
2010 SFN $9,000,000
2009 SFN $650,000
2008 SFN $405,000
9 yrPrevious$100,555,000
9 yrTotal$100,555,000


Service TimeAgentContract Status
9 y 32 dRick Thurman1 year/$1M (2018)

  • 1 year/$1M (2018). Signed by Texas as a free agent 2/27/18. Performance bonuses. Released by Texas 6/5/18.
  • 1 year/$2.5M (2016). Signed by LA Angels as a free agent 5/20/16 (pro-rated salary for balance of season). Performance bonuses based on starts: $25,000 for 11 GS. $50,000 for 13 GS. $0.1M for 15 GS. $0.2M for 17 GS. $0.4M for 19 GS. Roster bonuses based on days on active roster: $0.125M each for 4, 30, 60, 90 days, excluding time on disabled list with right hip injury. DFA by LA Angels 8/6/16 (optional assignment).
  • 2 years/$35M (2014-15). Signed extension with San Francisco 10/23/13. 14:$17M, 15:$18M. Full no-trade protection.
  • 2 years/$40.5M (2012-13). Signed extension with San Francisco 1/30/12. $0.5M signing bonus. 12:$18M, 13:$22M. Award bonuses: $50,000 for Gold Glove. $0.1M for All-Star. $0.25M for NL MVP ($0.15M for 2nd in MVP vote, $0.1M for 3rd, $75,000 for 4th, $50,000 for 5th). $0.5M for 2012 NL Cy Young ($0.25M for 2nd in Cy Young vote, $0.1M for 3rd, $75,000 for 4th, $50,000 for 5th). If Lincecum wins 2012 Cy Young, bonus for winning 2013 Cy Young increases to $1M.
  • 2 years/$23M (2010-11). Signed extension with San Francisco 2/12/10 (avoided arbitration, $13M-$8M). $2M signing bonus. 10:$8M, 11:$13M. Performance bonus: $0.2M for 225 IP. Award bonuses: $0.5M for Cy Young ($0.25M for 2nd in vote, $0.1M for 3rd, $75,000 for 4th, $50,000 for 5th). $0.1M each for MVP, All-Star. $75,000 for WS MVP. $50,000 for LCS MVP.
  • 1 year/$0.65M (2009). Re-signed by San Francisco 2/26/09.
  • 1 year/$0.405M (2008). Re-signed by San Francisco 2/08.
  • 1 year (2007). Contract purchased by San Francisco 5/6/07.
  • Drafted by San Francisco 2006 (1-10) (Washington). $2.025M signing bonus.

2019 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET

90o 0 4.7 0 10 10 48.4 42 21 39 6 .265 1.31 4.11 4.16 -4.7 -0.5
80o 0 4.5 0 9 9 42.8 40 20 34 5 .279 1.41 4.53 4.6 -6.2 -0.7
70o 0 4.2 0 8 8 38.8 39 19 31 5 .289 1.49 4.83 4.91 -6.9 -0.7
60o 0 4 0 7 7 35.5 37 18 29 5 .298 1.56 5.10 5.19 -7.3 -0.8
50o 0 3.8 0 7 7 32.6 35 18 26 5 .307 1.62 5.35 5.45 -7.6 -0.8
40o 0 3.6 0 6 6 29.7 33 17 24 4 .315 1.69 5.61 5.72 -7.8 -0.8
30o 0 3.4 0 5 5 26.6 31 16 21 4 .324 1.76 5.89 6.01 -7.8 -0.8
20o 0 3.1 0 5 5 23.2 29 14 19 4 .335 1.85 6.23 6.36 -7.7 -0.8
10o 0 2.6 0 4 4 18.6 24 12 15 3 .350 1.98 6.71 6.86 -7.1 -0.8
Weighted Mean03.706631.93417265.3051.615.325.42-7.4-0.8

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BP Annual Player Comments

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BP Articles

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BP Chats

2016-05-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)Where is the best fit for Tim Lincecum? With the recent Danks DFA, I would be intrigued if the White Sox took a chance on him, though they do have options in Johnson/Turner/Gonzalez in AAA.
(Matt from Chicago)
I don't have the necessary information to answer the question, y'know? Whoever likes what they see the most at his showcase should sign him. I suspect he's going to be a low-impact addition, wherever he goes. The new Johan Santana! (not the good way) (Matthew Trueblood)
2016-02-03 20:00:00 (link to chat)If both careers ended right now, whose would you rather have, Tim Lincecum or Buster Posey? 2x Cy Young,2 other top 10 finishes, and 3x WS winner, vs RoY, 1x Comeback, 1x Hank Aaron, 2x Silver Slugger, 1x MVP, and 3x WS winner?
(Alex from CA)
Fascinating question. Just looked up their WARP and we have Posey at 38 and Lincecum at 21. If Lincecum had the edge in WS to go along with those two Cys, I might go that way, but he doesn't. (Greg Wellemeyer)
2015-06-10 14:00:00 (link to chat)Is Sonny Gray a legit fantasy ace for the next 5 seasons?
(IgnitorKid from Wisconsin)
Gray obviously has the tools, but I can't help but see a Tim Lincecum path for him. Lincecum has shown how a starter's workload can wear on a shorter and slighter pitcher. If Gray throws 200 innings over the next couple years, I'm worried his stuff will begin to decline 3-5 years down the road. Certainly, it's nothing but projection, but when was the last time a hard-throwing starter who was under 6-feet threw 200+ for years on end? Tim Lincecum did, but he's a shell of himself at this point and only 30. (J.P. Breen)
2015-04-16 17:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on Giants rotation and when/if we might see Yusmeiro Petit?
(wml2000 from NYC)
After Madison Bumgarner it looks really thin, though Jake Peavy and Tim Hudson could certainly surprise us. Chris Heston has shown some velocity improvement and could be better than we were expecting, but I still see him as a back end guy. Tim Lincecum's velo is really down and while the deception is better, I don't trust him much. Who knows when Matt Cain's coming back? I'd love to see Petit in the rotation, but it could be a while if Heston holds up. I'll guess June. (Mike Gianella)
2014-10-17 12:00:00 (link to chat)The Royals' base stealing overall wasn't a factor in ALCS, after it looked like grownups playing against kids in first two rounds. Did the Orioles really do that great a job slowing them down, or does it take only competent batteries to keep the Royals from doing real damage on the bases? Long way to the question, which is: Giants pitchers don't do a great job holding on runners, Buster does a pretty good job throwing them out, call it all league-average. How many attempts and how many steals for the Royals in this WS?
(Lion from Moon)
I recall the Royals running wild on the Giants in August, but I think that was mostly against Tim Lincecum. Baltimore places a premium on slowing the running game. There will be more opportunities against the Giants, but not a ton. Good teams hold runners. Good pitchers don't even let them on base. (Andy McCullough)
2014-04-17 12:00:00 (link to chat)Aside from being Paul Goldschmidt's plaything, how good will Tim Lincecum be this year? Improve on last year? There was some suggestion that the presence of Tim Hudson (and his methods) might be of benefit (certainly Hudson has been good so far) - is that asking too much of a veteran teammate? Thanks, again, Matthew.
(Drifter from Long Branch)
I think there's a better Lincecum in there than he's showed over the last couple seasons. This season he's got 17 Ks and one (!) walk in 15 innings, which is terrific. Then you look farther down the list and see he's got a 7.20 ERA because he's given up 12 runs and five homers in those 15 IP. He can clearly still get guys out, but what I keep hearing is that he hasn't ever adjusted to pitching with lesser velocity. The margin for error of a pitcher who throws 90-91 is much less than for a pitcher who can hit 96. The command has to be there and it seems it just isn't. He can't live up in the zone and out over the plate like he used to and unless that changes, it's hard to be optimistic. I do think a change of approach could benefit him, but the Cy Young winner is gone. (Matthew Kory)
2014-03-27 13:00:00 (link to chat)should i trade Tim Lincecum for Dylan Bundy in h2h dynasty? we start 5 sps (i have kershaw, strasburg, teheran, wheeler, harvey, estrada, gallardo and ross - also no waiver wire) Is Bundy going to recover and regain momentum?
(Grey from NY)
Yes. How often are you going to start Lincecum with those alternatives? Bank on the upside. (R.J. Anderson)
2013-06-11 14:00:00 (link to chat)What do you see as Cole's numbers tonight Daniel,I'm going nine innings pitched twenty seven strikeouts, and two home runs, what say you? (:
(boatman44 from Liverpool)
Putting aside my Giants-fan bias, I'll peg his line at 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R (2 ER), 1 BB, 4 K, and a win over Tim Lincecum. (Daniel Rathman)
2013-05-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)According to PitchFX, Gio Gonzalez averaged 94.08 mph on his 4 seamer and 93.37 on his 2 seamer in 2012. This year he's down to 93.45 and 92.81, respectively. Last start was more of the same. 2012 was his highest average velocity and his best year. Is the dip cause for concern? Maybe a sign that he just had an exceptional year last year?
(Charlie from Bethesda, MD)
Velocity decline question number 1 of n. Gio is 27 or so now, and the fact his velocity increased the last few years, up until this one, is more interesting. Every pitcher loses his speed at some point. 27 seems to be pretty good for the first sign of decline, lots of guys start losing velocity after high school (Tim Lincecum pops into mind). So, I think you're "exceptional year" answer is the best fit and I certainly wouldn't be concerned. (Harry Pavlidis)
2013-04-30 12:00:00 (link to chat)Has anyone done a deep dive into Cole Hamels pitch f/x info to see if there is something wrong/different? 6 walks is very not Hamelsey.
(geneclaude from KC)
Not that I've seen.

Barely related plug: Grant Brisbee and Chris Quick, of McCovey Chronicles and Bay City Ball, did nice breakdowns of Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum's command woes last week. (R.J. Anderson)
2013-04-30 12:00:00 (link to chat)Does Tim Lincecum ever turn it around, adapt to reduced velocity, etc., to become a front-line starter? Or are the Giants better-served moving him to the pen? What's the bigger issue now? Velocity loss? or command? Or are those related?
(Scott from Scottsdale)
They could be related. I don't think Lincecum will regain his front-line status. I would be curious to see him in the bullpen, however. Here's the aforementioned Lincecum piece:

And here's the Cain: (R.J. Anderson)
2013-04-10 20:00:00 (link to chat)MG What's going on? In a yahoo league rotisserie standard 8 team league. I really need to make a couple of adjustments. Need to add another pitcher and solid bar to this line up. This league is tough with trades! Who should we ditch and is there anyone we should be tracking or picking up? Here is the squad, 1. (6) Albert Pujols 1B 2. (11) Joe Mauer C,1B 3. (22) Jacoby Ellsbury OF 4. (27) Evan Longoria 3B 5. (38) Matt Holliday OF 6. (43) Cliff Lee SP 7. (54) Shin-Soo Choo OF 8. (59) Jose Altuve 2B 9. (70) Jimmy Rollins SS 10. (75) Roy Halladay SP 11. (86) Huston Street RP 12. (91) Addison Reed RP 13. (102) Anthony Rizzo 1B 14. (107) Jason Grilli RP 15. (118) Tim Lincecum SP 16. (123) Alex Gordon OF 17. (134) Carlos Marmol RP 18. (139) Dan Haren SP 19. (150) Kenley Jansen RP 20. (155) Rickie Weeks 2B 21. (166) Alejandro De Aza OF 22. (171) J.P. Arencibia C Guys who are available. FYI Materson, ziti, e Santana, pettitte Crisp, wells, m Saunders, carpenter, werth
(coach53 from Ct)
Hey Coach

Without knowing what the rules are regarding how deep your reserve lists are and what your free agent pool looks like it's difficult to offer specific advice. Your roster looks strong, but 8-team mixed probably has a lot of rosters that look like this. Dan Haren and Tim Lincecum seem like players that you should be upgrading on. Feel free to drop Carlos Marmol, and as much as I love Kenley Jansen if there's a closer out there, get him; in an 8-team league you shouldn't be speculating on future saves but getting saves here and now. The free agents you list don't look particularly great which - again - makes me wonder how deep your reserve lists are. (Mike Gianella)
2013-04-10 20:00:00 (link to chat)Any wisdom from the mechanics crowd about the freak's inability to command the fastball? During the start last night, he could throw the off-speed stuff reasonably well hence the decent K rate. But he couldn't hit the side of a barn with the FB, and by the end of the start was even ditching it for a slider when he needed a strike. Has this ever been seen before (pitcher can command off speed, but not the fastball)? And what's the cause? He's always missing high and right... Trying to reach back for too much velo, or just consistently wrong release point?
(Lincecum's Fastball from High and Right)
Based on your name, you should know the answer!

I did read a lot of pieces today about Tim Lincecum, but there weren't any good answers to what he might or might not be doing wrong. The velocity on the fastball is also lower than it was in 2011 and earlier. It's possible that Lincecum is trying to compensate for his diminished velo and missing his spots, but it's also possible that the decreased velo is leading to the missing on the fastball. I don't really know. I do think that in a mixed format he's a bad bet right now and you should probably bench him until he and/or the coaching staff finds the cure to what ails him. (Mike Gianella)
2013-04-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)The best pitching free agents on the market this winter are going to be Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum and Josh Johnson, which could be okay or could be superLOL. Which do you expect will get paid the most, and how much?
(Marshall from Crenshaw)
All of those guys are good buy-low candidates, but I suspect they won't be paid low. It's going to depend on how they do the rest of the year. If Halladay figures out whatever it is that has stolen his velocity and command sometime in July and puts together three good months, he'll find someone who will pay him. Lincecum can still strike out hitters, but can he find the strike zone, or anything remotely resembling it?

As for who will get paid the most, I'd probably offer Johnson the most money. He's the one with the biggest injury history (so you might end up with nothing for your money) but he's also the one with the combination of a track record of recent success (depending, again, on this season) and youth.

Sounds weird though. Imagine what those three would have got on the open market three seasons ago. The GDP of a small European country might not have covered it. (Matthew Kory)
2012-12-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is Tim Lincecum going to bounce back or will he be a mid-tier Free Agent SP that a team is going to have to rebuild him into the his old form?
(jlarsen from chicago)
Your lottery numbers are 09-35-37-41-47 / 19; good luck! (Geoff Young)
2012-09-14 14:00:00 (link to chat)You looked at Tim Lincecum awhile back. He's had better results lately, but still doesn't look right when I watch him. Have you seen anything to make Giants fans optimistic?
(NC from SF)
With Lincecum it all boils down to timing, but his timing is dependent on the massive stride and incredible momentum, elements that require a greater degree of functional strength that more typical deliveries. I am optimistic in that he has had more success lining up his motion the last couple of months, but his timing still escapes him at times, and he is really struggling to find the delivery from the stretch this year. He can look like a different pitcher inning to inning, and the good innings have been more and more prevalent through the course of the season, so one can hope that he will continue the upward trend into the postseason.

On the jukebox: The Yardbirds, "Heart Full of Soul" (Doug Thorburn)
2012-07-11 12:00:00 (link to chat)I just traded Andre Ethier for Tim Lincecum, straight up, in my 10 team HTH points league. I know PECOTA loves Lincecum, but did I just go out on a serious limb here?
(TomLongwell from Minneapolis)
High risk, high reward (Jason Collette)
2012-04-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)help my fantasy season is failing after 10 days, what should i do?
(Bad Rankrom from NYC)
Trade for Tim Lincecum. (Bradley Ankrom)
2012-04-12 14:00:00 (link to chat)Is Tim Lincecum a good buy low candidate right now?
(Ron from Washington, DC)
See two questions above. Short answer, yes, if his owner is panicking, but I might not pay full preseason sticker. (Derek Carty)
2012-03-08 15:00:00 (link to chat)If you were forced to choose between the two, would you rather have Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum?
(Ed from Foxboro)
I'm assuming you're asking which of the two, if one had to go, I'd want the Giants to sign to a long-term deal. The answer to that is Cain. I have a lot more faith in Cain's ability to provide value commensurate with his salaries over a 5-6 year deal than Lincecum's, and Cain's style is a perfect fit for AT&T. Plus, the country music fan in me would miss Cain's entrance songs, which are annually my favorite on the team. (Daniel Rathman)
2012-03-08 15:00:00 (link to chat)Is this the year that Matt Cain overtakes Tim Lincecum as the Giants ace in the rotation?
(Tim from San Francisco)
This is the year that Madison Bumgarner overtakes both of them. (Daniel Rathman)
2012-01-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who grades out better for the combined hair & mustache package: Tim Lincecum or Derek Holland?
(Bryant from San Diego)
Lincecum grades out higher. Holland looks like a NAMBLA alert come to life. (Jason Parks)
2011-06-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)I have a very strong pitching staff in a long term keeper Strat-O-Matic 16 team league and I only need five starters. Which five of these would you keep? Josh Beckett, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Zack Greinke, CJ Wilson, Jordan Zimmermann, Clayton Kershaw, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando, and Chris Narveson. Keep in mind I can keep them forever.
(jhardman from Apex, NC)
Lincecum, Kershaw, Greinke, and Cain seem like obvious choices. I'd probably go with Beckett for the last spot, though Wilson might be safer, given Beckett's age and injury history. (Ben Lindbergh)
2011-06-06 12:00:00 (link to chat)How long does Trevor Bauer last? He looks like Tim Lincecum (with all the associated reservations) and UCLA used him like a rented mule.
(FrankL from Marietta, GA)
I don't think he makes it past KC at number 5. I mentioned before that I'm not big on drafting for need, but when you're KC, and you've got a bunch of top prospects on their way up, you probably want someone who's close to ML-ready. KC's got a shot of replicating the Rays over the next few seasons if they play their cards right. (Dan Turkenkopf)
2010-09-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Please fill in the blank. This is the best NL Rookie Class since ________ (blank). Thanks! Bobby
(Bobby from New York)
Are we going strictly by league? Because the 2007 class had Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Dustin Pedroia and Josh Hamilton among hitters, Tim Lincecum and Joakim Soria among pitchers. 2006 had Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Andre Ethier, Prince Fielder, Ian Kinsler, Francisco Liriano, Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, Josh Johnson, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Jonathan Papelbon (who used to not suck), Jonathan Broxton (ditto)...

There's a lot to be excited about with this year's rookie class (Posey, Heyward, Santana, Stanton) but I'm in no rush to appoint them the best class of the past five years until I see much more. (Jay Jaffe)
2010-07-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)I'm sure everyone gets this all the time, but is Tim Lincecum broken after two years of otherworldly performance? By all reports neither the stuff, nor the command was there in his last start.
(Aaron from YYZ)
Here's my general default: go with the mountain of data rather than the molehill. He still generates plenty of swinging strikes, he gets lots of strikeouts, and he rarely allows runs. All pitchers have bad years, and often it's because of a real decline in stuff. But that doesn't mean the change is permanent. If I were making stock suggestions I'd rate Lincecum a "Strong Buy" right now. (Tommy Bennett)
2010-06-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)Can you please tell me what is up with Tim Lincecum? Is it a hidden injury or just a minor regression? I'm reaching for a paper bag now.
(Sam from (NH))
You mean the guy with the 83/30 K/BB in 71 2/3 IP? He'll be fine, high-walk games notwithstanding. Don't think he'll threepeat on the Cy Youngs, though. (Tommy Bennett)
2010-03-24 11:00:00 (link to chat)NL-only Keeper league. I have been offered at $19 Ryan Zimmerman and an $8 Chase Headley for a $23 Tim Lincecum. I have Nolasco and Billingsley on my list of keeps. Do I make that deal?
(raygu1 from Burlington, NJ)
You have a $23 Lincecum in an NL-only league? Keep him. (Tommy Bennett)
2010-03-15 16:00:00 (link to chat)Why not. Who are your preseason top 5 in the AL and NL MVP races?
(Cheese from DC)
In the NL, it's a 3 horse race between Albert Pujols, Chase Utley (someone give the man an MVP!), and Tim Lincecum. Although I'm a fan of keeping pitchers out of the MVP award...

In the AL: it's predictable and boring, but A-Rod is healthy... in the non-Yankee division? Victor Martinez? I'm trying desperately to come up with names that weren't in the top 7 of last year's ballot so I can appear hip and trendy. The sad truth is that if you want a pre-season top 5, look at the post-season top five from last year. (Russell A. Carleton)
2010-03-03 14:00:00 (link to chat)Does Stephen Strasburg have the capability to be better than Tim Lincecum in a few years?
(John from DC)
The capability? Yes. That doesn't mean it will happen. He has better pure stuff than arguably any pitcher in the game. (Kevin Goldstein)
2010-03-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hello Will, Project Prospect is dubious about Hellickson's ability to manage the workload of a starter in the majors. They base that not just on his size, but on some instances of an injury history and his relatively low innings total each year as well as some questions about his mechanics. Have you any opinion on that matter?
(buddaley from Clearwater)
I havent seen what's written, so I'll keep this general. His size is concerning and he looks ... well, he looks like he's 12. He makes David Eckstein look like a Mike Gundy-style Man. Still, we don't know whether he's the next Tim Lincecum or the next ... some short guy that didn't make it. There's that inherent bias.

As to his mechanics, I'm going to rant a bit. Look, I used to think I could look at a guy and tell. I was wrong. NO ONE can. In generalities, you can see some things, but until we get them in a mo-cap, there's no way to know the forces on their joints. There's some AMAZING technology coming that I'm going to introduce you to soon that will change how we look at these guys, but until then, remember that no one - the teams included - have any idea what good or bad mechanics are. (Will Carroll)
2010-03-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)I have eight keepers for this season in a 12-team league. Without me telling you everyone, I have kept only one pitcher (Tim Lincecum) and one outfielder (Justin Upton). We start five outfielders. I also have managed to trade for the top pick in the draft. Am I stupid to lock up Stephen Strasburg, despite him not making an immediate impact, or would you go with Adam Jones, potential "fantasy monster" as you describe him? These are the only two guys I'm debating on for the pick.
(Jimmy from DC)
I *love* Adam Jones. And so does PECOTA. Strasburg will be easier to acquire outside of keepers than Jones, IMO. I'd keep Jones. (Marc Normandin)
2010-02-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)Should Twin fans really make anything of Liriano's DWL numbers? It seems like the same hype surrounded Liriano last offseason. Is there legitimate reason for hope?
(Noah from Kalamazoo)
I wouldn't go crazy over it, but data is data, and you'd rather have him pitch well down there than not.

Remember something: Liriano's 2006 is just completely off the charts. Better than Felix, maybe even better than any stretch Tim Lincecum has had. If he can can even get halfway back there... (Shawn Hoffman)
2009-12-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)Can Madison Bumgarner out-Lincecum Tim Lincecum?
(evolution from Chicago)
Maybe in basketball. (Kevin Goldstein)
2009-12-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)If Tim Lincecum were a free agent right now, would it be silly to think he would get a 8 yeay/200 million dollar offer?
(Susan from Bay Area)
8? Wow. I could see 6-150 maybe. (Kevin Goldstein)
2009-09-24 14:00:00 (link to chat)Do the Giants make bad decisions because they're ignorant, or because they aren't really trying to win? I burst a blood vessel every time they needlessly leave Tim Lincecum out there for a meaningless extra inning.
(mgibson from DC)
As an organization, they seem to value speed, contact and power, and they don't pay much attention to on-base skills independent of batting average. This is how you choose Nate Schierholtz instead of Fred Lewis. Let's not forget that they have drafted and developed some very good pitching; it's in constructing an offense that they've failed, and I think the presence of Barry Bonds clouded that it's been the case for a while. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-06-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)Is Roy Halladay baseball's best pitcher? It's not like he hasn't been doing it for a long period of time, and I figure he's got to be given some extra credit for the division he pitches in as well as his ability to pitch more innings than any one else.
(blaseta from Calgary)
I still have Johan Santana atop my list, and I think you can argue that Halladay is the best of the next group down, which would include Brandon Webb, CC Sabathia and Tim Lincecum. Santana is a bit like Albert Pujols now, where he's so good people look for other guys to talk about. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-04-08 15:00:00 (link to chat)Your description of Strasburg sounds like Tim Lincecum, only a foot taller, 100 lbs heavier, and his favorite color might not be green. Do I have it about right?
(Kevin from San Jose, CA)
Add in much, much better command and control. (Kevin Goldstein)
2008-11-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)You were perhaps the very first media person who discounted the scouts' concerns with Tim Lincecum and said two winters ago he was your choice for franchise pitcher for the next 10 years. Given that Tim had never thrown a pitch above High A, most would have considered that a very bold prediction. Today (and I ask this question four days before I expect Lincecum to become the Giants' first Cy Young Award winner in 41 years and I believe the second-ever NL pitcher to win the award in his first full season -- with Fernando Valenzuela being the other)that prediction looks like genius. What were the specific factors that allowed you to make what appears to be a prediction ahead of its time, and what implications do these factors have for Tim's continuing future?
(sharksrog from San Francisco)
That's a really early submit, so I have to get this one up. Lincecum did win the award, so I look really smart, but basically I could have been wrong for the reasons I was right. Eyes are a terrible tool for judging pitchers and without facts and data on his joint load, I can't say anything with surety. I didn't see anything terribly wrong mechanically, but the same could be said about Mark Prior. I just didn't think "looks strange" ever equalled "dangerous." (Will Carroll)
2008-10-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)Can a legitimate case really be made for C.C. Sabathia to win the NL Cy Young? Surely his half-season isn't more valuable than full seasons from Tim Lincecum or Johan Santana?
(ericssimon from Jersey)
Since Lincecum and Santana have essentially the same SNLVAR (8.6 to 8.5, respectively) I'm going to give the nod to Lincecum, because he has a higher K rate, and that's what I love. (Marc Normandin)
2008-09-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)How can people say that Brandon Webb should win the NL Cy Young? Simple question, it's truly baffeling.
(TheBunk from Toronto)
Probably because he's got 19 wins and has been on the verge of 20 for a couple weeks, though Tim Lincecum (16-3 with an ERA more than a run better and an SNLVAR about 50% better) has probably closed the gap enough to have a pretty good shot. The kid would get my vote, for sure. (Jay Jaffe)
2008-07-21 15:00:00 (link to chat)Will, I missed participating in your last chat, but I had a Tim Lincecum comment (pitching mechanics-related, not that other stuff). You had mentioned his back arch--I never noticed it, but could it be used to generate more velocity? To draw a cross-sport analogy, most top tennis players use a good deal of back arch to help generate velocity on their serves (McEnroe was an extreme example of this). Could pitchers make use of similar biomechanics?
(Dr. Wayne Pitcher from Castro Valley, CA)
They could and you're right, there are parallels between the tennis serve and the pitching motion. I tried a couple years ago to get Andy Roddick to throw a baseball, but his agent threatened my life. I'd bet he could get in the 90s. Heck, maybe IMG should take a couple of the second tier players at Bollietieri and move them over to the Baseball Academy! On Lincecum, yeah, maybe, but I don't see the same 'whip', the kind Roger Clemens had, tho it was less apparent because of their physiques. You'd really have to see him in mo-cap to really know. (Will Carroll)
2008-07-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)There seem to be philosophical differences among pitching instructors on whether a player should "drift" through his release point, or be a "tall-and-fall" pitcher. From a biomechanical standpoint, what are the pros and cons of these differening philosophies? It seems "drifting" would be more advantageous based on the SI article on Tim Lincecum, who generates a lot of forward momentum by "flowing" and not pausing in his delivery.
(Jason from New York)
There's always going to be disagreements on issues like this, but I tend to agree with you. I don't like to see any slowing or stopping in a delivery. My philosophy of pitching is that there's no one "correct" delivery, but that there is a mechanical ideal based on functional anatomy and joint loads. Getting a pitcher as close to that while maintaining effectiveness is my ideal. I recently worked with a HS pitcher who's arm action is terrible and simply cant pronate without hurting his shoulder. He's got a great fastball, so after consulting with his coach, he was converted to a "starting closer." He'd start games, but was limited to two innings. (It's something that's actually been discussed by the Brewers and given their bullpen, I wish they'd do more than discuss it!) Due to Indiana's rules, he could start every game if he wished and it worked for the team. (Will Carroll)
2008-07-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who has better mechanics, Tim Lincecum or Jeff Gordon?
(John from Live Nation)
I'm just taking the opportunity to say Live Nation sucks. (Will Carroll)
2008-07-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)Anyone in the minors mirror the biomechanics of Tim Lincecum? Even remotely? Any chance that Lincecum will change the way farm systems develop their pitchers?
(Corkedbat from Dallas)
No; no. He's a unique thing and I don't think trying to copy him would be a good idea. (Kevin Goldstein)
2008-06-23 12:00:00 (link to chat)Hey I have bought the last 3 annuals- cant I get a question answered? Now that they have had some major league experience how would you rate the following highy touted pitchers= Andrew Miller, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Tim Lincecum, Homer Bailey and Clayton Kershaw. If Detroit had a do-over would they still select Miller over Kershaw?
(bpfan from nyc)
Of course you can get a question answered. I'd rank them like this: Chamberlain, Lincecum, Kershaw, Hughes, Miller, Bailey. Though I'm sure they wouldn't say so, I think the Tigers would rather have taken Kershaw with the way it's all turned out. (John Perrotto)
2008-06-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)Will, I really need an answer here. My friend and I are having an argument over who would be the Cy Young winner in the NL if the season ended today. We bet a Yoo-hoo on it. Who do you think it would be?
(JoshEngleman from Tamaqua, PA)
If it's me voting, I'd probably go with Tim Lincecum. If you're asking who would win the voting? I'd guess Brandon Webb on wins for a winning team with Carlos Zambrano a close second. (Will Carroll)
2008-03-25 14:00:00 (link to chat)Christina, here's a chance to say something snarky about the Giants: go.
(Chomsky from Brooklyn)
This morning, I noted in conversation that they'll suck with aplomb, but to be fair, they won't be entirely dull. I don't know where their season ticket sales are, but I'd want to see what Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, and Jonathan Sanchez can do. The pity is that lineup, which will be bad enough to get people jonesing for Bob Brenly comeback. (Christina Kahrl)
2008-01-29 16:00:00 (link to chat)Rany, is Luke Hochevar going to be a bust in relative terms to the #1 overall pick?
(ajblobaum from Lawrence, KS)
"Bust" is too strong a term. He's going to be less valuable than your typical #1 pick, simply because your average #1 pick includes the Griffeys and A-Rods of the world. I think he's going to be a #3 starter, maybe #2 in a good year. Would he go #1 if the Royals drafted today? No. But the only clearly better player the Royals passed on at the time was Andrew Miller, and even today it's not clear that Miller's the better player. Joba Chamberlain or Tim Lincecum, sure, but few people were arguing that at the time. (Although our own Kevin Goldstein thought the Royals should have taken Lincecum.) (Rany Jazayerli)
2008-02-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who do you like better this year: King Felix or Tim Lincecum?
(Bryan from Maryland)
For fantasy stats? Hernandez (and can he please win something before we crown him? Kthanx.) He'll have more wins with a better team and similar stats if he stays healthy.

For longevity? Lincecum.

If you made me a GM and gave me a choice? Lincecum. (Will Carroll)
2008-01-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Will we see another 100IP quality reliever anytime soon? Are any teams trying to develop that sort of talent out of failed starting pitching prospects?
(Jeremy from New Hampshire)
I don't know of any, but I thought that with a different organization with the right need, Tim Lincecum would be ideal as the next Mike Marshall. He could give you 150 out of the pen, easy. (Kevin Goldstein)

BP Roundtables

DateRoundtable NameComment
2010-10-06 10:00:002010 Playoffs Day OneCliff Lee vs Roy Halladay in Game 7 would be interesting. Then again, so would CC Sabathia vs Tim Lincecum. (David Laurila)
2010-04-05 09:30:00Season Opener Roundtable"Jake Green (LA): In 2015, who will be the best pitcher of the three? Tim Lincecum, Stephen Strasburg, or Aroldis Chapman?"

Good question. Today I'll go with Tiny Tim, since he's the proven quantity and I'm notoriously risk averse. Ask again in September, though, and you might well get a different answer. (Ken Funck)
2010-04-05 09:30:00Season Opener Roundtable"Jake Green (LA): In 2015, who will be the best pitcher of the three? Tim Lincecum, Stephen Strasburg, or Aroldis Chapman"

I really don't know how to answer these kinds of questions, to be honest. The analytical part of my brain kicks in and says that the margin of error on this sort of thing vastly swamps the difference between them in talent.

So if you're sending in these questions and I'm not picking them, please don't feel slighted. I just honestly don't have a good answer for you, and don't feel like giving you a bad answer just to say I did. (Colin Wyers)
2010-04-05 09:30:00Season Opener RoundtableThe limits of imagination: baseball looks at Tim Lincecum's unorthodox delivery and says, "We're still right about everything we know about pitching mechanics; he's just a fluke, an outlier, and not-to-be-repeated freak" instead of wondering if he can teach us anything. (Steven Goldman)
2010-04-05 09:30:00Season Opener RoundtablePedro Feliz slings a single off through the hole against Tim Lincecum. It is beautiful the kind of random events that happen in small sample sizes. (Matt Swartz)
2010-04-05 09:30:00Season Opener RoundtableThe Tigers, who will go on to win the AL Central, close out the Trey Hillmans 8-4.

Meanwhile, Tim Lincecum is really fun to watch pitch. (David Laurila)

PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

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