Baseball Prospectus

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Statistics for All Levels

Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 71)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	Run Average	Trend
1	87	Pedro Strop	2018	2.26
2	83	Damaso Marte	2008	4.02
3	82	Brian Fuentes	2009	3.93
4	81	Jonathan Papelbon	2014	2.04
5	81	J.J. Putz	2010	3.00
6	80	David Robertson	2018	4.00
7	79	Fernando Rodney	2010	4.37
8	79	Tyler Clippard	2018	3.80
9	78	Darren O'Day	2016	3.77
10	78	Brendan Donnelly	2005	4.13
11	77	Scot Shields	2009	7.13
12	77	Eric Plunk	1997	5.07
13	77	Michael Gonzalez	2011	5.23
14	76	Jose Valverde	2011	2.61
15	76	Jerry Blevins	2017	2.94
16	76	Rich Gossage	1985	2.39
17	76	Jason Frasor	2011	3.90
18	75	Jose Veras	2014	4.89
19	75	B.J. Ryan	2009	6.53
20	75	John Hiller	1976	2.75
21	75	Rafael Soriano	2013	3.24
22	75	John Axford	2016	4.25
23	75	George Sherrill	2010	7.43
24	75	Pedro Feliciano	2010	3.45
25	74	Paul Shuey	2004	0.00	DNP
26	74	Boone Logan	2018	5.91
27	74	Joaquin Benoit	2011	3.39
28	74	Francisco Cordero	2008	3.58
29	73	Roberto Hernandez	1998	4.16
30	73	Luke Gregerson	2017	4.72
31	73	Mike Dunn	2018	9.00
32	73	Matt Thornton	2010	2.67
33	72	Jeremy Affeldt	2012	3.27
34	72	Brian Wilson	2015	0.00	DNP
35	72	Heath Bell	2011	2.87
36	72	J.P. Howell	2016	4.09
37	71	Kiko Calero	2008	3.86
38	71	Joe Page	1951	0.00	DNP
39	71	Blake Parker	2018	3.26
40	71	Jonathan Broxton	2017	6.89
41	71	Troy Percival	2003	4.01
42	71	Tippy Martinez	1983	2.61
43	70	Eric Gagne	2009	0.00	DNP
44	70	Lee Smith	1991	2.34
45	70	Hideki Okajima	2009	3.39
46	70	Kevin Gregg	2011	5.28
47	70	Jim Kern	1982	3.72
48	70	Norm Charlton	1996	4.52
49	70	Grant Balfour	2011	2.47
50	70	Will Harris	2018	3.49
51	70	Joakim Soria	2017	3.86
52	69	Arthur Rhodes	2003	4.17
53	69	Joe Thatcher	2015	3.18
54	69	Billy Wagner	2005	1.97
55	69	Sergio Romo	2016	2.64
56	69	Jay Howell	1989	1.69
57	69	Fernando Rodriguez	2017	0.00	DNP
58	69	Jeff Nelson	2000	3.23
59	68	Mike Jackson	1998	1.55
60	68	Bruce Ruffin	1997	6.14
61	68	Robb Nen	2003	0.00	DNP
62	68	Jeff Montgomery	1995	3.84
63	68	Mike Adams	2012	3.61
64	67	Casey Janssen	2015	4.95
65	67	Michael Wuertz	2012	0.00	DNP
66	67	Kerry Wood	2010	3.33
67	67	Hoyt Wilhelm	1956	4.50
68	67	Jay Witasick	2006	6.75
69	67	Tom Wilhelmsen	2017	4.44
70	67	Peter Moylan	2012	5.40
71	67	Octavio Dotel	2007	4.70
72	67	Tony Watson	2018	2.59
73	67	Matt Miller	2005	1.82
74	66	Andrew Miller	2018	4.50
75	66	Armando Benitez	2006	3.52
76	66	Akinori Otsuka	2005	4.02
77	66	Rafael Betancourt	2008	5.32
78	66	Craig Stammen	2017	3.36
79	66	Dennys Reyes	2010	3.55
80	65	Manny Parra	2016	0.00	DNP
81	65	Joe Nathan	2008	1.73
82	65	Mike Marshall	1976	4.35
83	65	Brad Lidge	2010	3.15
84	65	Skip Lockwood	1980	6.11
85	65	Ricardo Rincon	2003	3.42
86	65	Nolan Ryan	1980	3.85
87	65	Bob Wickman	2002	5.77
88	64	Joe Borowski	2004	8.02
89	64	Jesse Orosco	1990	4.87
90	64	Ryan Dempster	2010	4.60
91	64	Glen Perkins	2016	9.00
92	64	Nick Masset	2015	5.40
93	64	Carlos Marmol	2016	0.00	DNP
94	64	Todd Jones	2001	5.16
95	64	Trevor Hoffman	2001	3.73
96	64	Santiago Casilla	2014	2.01
97	64	Huston Street	2017	0.00
98	63	J.C. Romero	2009	3.24
99	63	David Hernandez	2018	2.81
100	63	Tony Barnette	2017	5.65

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		Only two relievers threw at least 50 innings and walked more than 16 percent of the batters they faced in 2017: Dellin Betances and Ottavino. In his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, Ottavino took the concept of high-strikeout, high-walk reliever to its logical extreme. Only 53 percent of the batters Ottavino faced didn’t strike out, walk, homer or reach via hit-by-pitch. That’s how a guy with Ottavino’s stuff ends up with a DRA flirting with 5.00. Ottavino’s fastball is down about a mile-per-hour or so since his pre-surgery days, but he still chucks in the mid-90s. Velocity isn’t the issue here, command is, and that means Ottavino has the ceiling of an elite closer and the floor of a guy who’s back in Albuquerque by June.
2017		Between September 7, 2014 and August 24, 2016, Ottavino struck out 34 batters and walked five in 31 innings of work without allowing a run. The Tommy John surgery he had in 2015 accounts for the limited work. After the scoreless run ended, he gave up nine runs in his next 10 2/3 innings, with five coming in a single disastrous outing. That said, he also struck out 18 batters and walked just four in that rough patch. Ottavino didn’t seem to be hampered at all upon his return to baseball, but further distance from surgery will be welcome. That’s just one reason to believe he’ll be an elite late-inning reliever in 2017.
2016		Ottavino endeared himself to statheads everywhere when he went on MLB Now with Brian Kenny last offseason and revealed that he had elevated his fastball more in the second half of 2014 after reading a FanGraphs post that detailed Sean Doolittle's success with the tactic. Namedropping Brooks Baseball and PITCHf/x in subsequent interviews solidified him in a tier just behind Zack Greinke, Brandon McCarthy and Trevor Bauer among the internet's favorite sabermetrics-inclined pitchers. Unfortunately, Ottavino's elbow blew out after a dominant April, forcing him to undergo Tommy John surgery—and becoming, in a sense, just another statistic.
2015		Last year, Ottavino recorded his third straight season in Colorado with an ERA+ over 100. With his role shifting to set-up man, he no longer pitched multiple innings: After 24 games getting six outs or more in 2013, only one such game occured in 2014. As a result, Ottavino faced his kryptonite, lefties, less frequently. Just 30 percent of his batters hit left-handed, softening the effect of their .297 True Average against. Against righties, the story with Ottavino hasn't changed: slider, slider, slider. He threw his two-plane weapon 60 percent of the time—whether he was starting off or finishing off a batter, it didn't matter. With fellow comrades Matt Belisle and Rex Brothers tailing off, Ottavino became the Rockies' most reliable reliever under the age of 40.
2014		There's a reason guys like Ottavino don't exist much these days: As soon as they show they're as good as Ottavino is, they get bumped into a non-Ottavino role. For the second year, the Rockies leaned on him as a multiple-inning reliever who didn't stink, and for the second year he thrived. He recorded more than three outs 29 times, fewer than only the Diamondbacks' Josh Collmenter and the Twins' Anthony Swarzak, each of whom was used far more often when the game was already settled. The Rockies finally caved in August and moved him into a traditional set-up role. He was more interesting before but he's more valuable now, and he'll continue to be a nice weapon in any role.
2013		Ottavino is a converted starter who saw his strikeout rate soar in his new role. The Cardinals' first-round pick in 2006 was used primarily in low-leverage situations after being claimed on waivers by the Rockies in April. He had no trouble with Coors Field and, except for a three-game stretch in mid-September that caused his ERA to jump more than a full run, pitched well in the second half. Shoulder issues and inconsistent off-speed stuff have held him back in the past, but he had good health for a second straight year, and changing speeds is less of a concern out of the bullpen. If his arm continues to hold up, he could have a nice career as a reliever.
2011		The hits just keep on coming for Ottavino, unfortunately. The former first-rounder suffered through his third difficult season in a row, bouncing back and forth between promising outings in Memphis and disastrous ones in St. Louis before missing the last half of the season with a strained shoulder. The injury didn’t require surgery and Ottavino should be ready for spring training, but the club took him off the 40-man roster. He still has stuff that can miss bats, with a low-90s fastball, a slider, and a changeup, and he made some progress toward reducing his disturbing walk rate, but his future likely involves warming up during games rather than before them.
2010		One of the few upper-level starting prospects in the system who throws hard, Ottavino's still looking for reliable off-speed stuff. The lack of it contributes to his getting hammered the second time through an order, as well as to the disappointment that the club's first-round pick from '06 (30th overall) hasn't done much since A-ball. He was added to the 40-man because not doing so would expose him to the Rule 5 draft, but he's going to need to regroup and show something to avoid being converted to relief work.
2009		Arguably the organization's best starting pitcher prospect entering the season, Adam Ottavino failed to keep the line moving at Springfield. He's a big righty (6'5", 215) with one of the best heaters in the system, but needs work on his slider and changeup.
2008		Norrick's teammate Adam Ottavino didn't pitch as well, but rates more highly because of his low-90s fastball and good slider
2007		The team`s first-round pick last June, Adam Ottavino is a power righty who was able to succeed in a full-season league during his pro debut.

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC

Adam Ottavino has thrown 13,431 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2010 and 2024, all of them occuring in Spring Training. In 2024, he has relied primarily on his Slider (79mph) and Sinker (92mph), also mixing in a Cutter (88mph), Fourseam Fastball (93mph) and Change (87mph). He also rarely throws a Curve (78mph).