Biographical

Portrait of A.J. Burnett

A.J. Burnett PPirates

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2018 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 41)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
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Birth Date1-3-1977
Height6' 4"
Weight230 lbs
Age41 years, 7 months, 19 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
0.22014
1.62015
2016
2017
0.42018
+proj
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA- WARP
1999 FLO MLB 7 7 41.3 4 2 0 37 25 33 3 .258 95 8.1 5.4 0.7 7.2 55% .281 .257 1.50 4.23 3.48 101 4.12 80.2 0.9
2000 FLO MLB 13 13 82.7 3 7 0 80 44 57 8 .258 94 8.7 4.8 0.9 6.2 48% .285 .266 1.50 4.60 4.79 115 7.47 143.8 -1.0
2001 FLO MLB 27 27 173.3 11 12 0 145 83 128 20 .255 94 7.5 4.3 1.0 6.6 50% .253 .252 1.32 4.58 4.05 106 5.06 104.8 1.5
2002 FLO MLB 31 29 204.3 12 9 0 153 90 203 12 .258 100 6.7 4.0 0.5 8.9 49% .266 .218 1.19 3.10 3.30 82 3.67 78.8 4.5
2003 FLO MLB 4 4 23.0 0 2 0 18 18 21 2 .259 94 7.0 7.0 0.8 8.2 54% .254 .278 1.57 4.88 4.70 107 6.13 128.4 -0.1
2004 FLO MLB 20 19 120.0 7 6 0 102 38 113 9 .259 91 7.7 2.9 0.7 8.5 52% .285 .224 1.17 3.08 3.67 82 3.25 67.1 3.3
2005 FLO MLB 32 32 209.0 12 12 0 184 79 198 12 .257 94 7.9 3.4 0.5 8.5 60% .298 .237 1.26 3.07 3.44 87 3.05 65.7 5.8
2006 TOR MLB 21 21 135.7 10 8 0 138 39 118 14 .264 106 9.2 2.6 0.9 7.8 53% .312 .243 1.30 3.82 3.98 82 3.40 69.2 3.5
2007 TOR MLB 25 25 165.7 10 8 0 131 66 176 23 .264 94 7.1 3.6 1.2 9.6 56% .261 .235 1.19 4.39 3.75 83 3.39 70.2 4.2
2008 TOR MLB 35 34 221.3 18 10 0 211 86 231 19 .264 98 8.6 3.5 0.8 9.4 50% .314 .257 1.34 3.47 4.07 77 3.49 74.5 5.0
2009 NYA MLB 33 33 207.0 13 9 0 193 97 195 25 .263 110 8.4 4.2 1.1 8.5 44% .296 .247 1.40 4.37 4.04 101 4.49 96.2 2.5
2010 NYA MLB 33 33 186.7 10 15 0 204 78 145 25 .257 115 9.8 3.8 1.2 7.0 46% .319 .274 1.51 4.79 5.26 108 5.03 113.7 0.5
2011 NYA MLB 33 32 190.3 11 11 0 190 83 173 31 .261 106 9.0 3.9 1.5 8.2 51% .294 .285 1.43 4.81 5.15 101 4.43 103.0 1.4
2012 PIT MLB 31 31 202.3 16 10 0 189 62 180 18 .255 95 8.4 2.8 0.8 8.0 58% .294 .252 1.24 3.56 3.51 85 3.15 72.3 4.8
2013 PIT MLB 30 30 191.0 10 11 0 165 67 209 11 .254 98 7.8 3.2 0.5 9.8 59% .305 .236 1.21 2.77 3.30 81 3.18 76.2 4.1
2014 PHI MLB 34 34 213.7 8 18 0 205 96 190 20 .261 97 8.6 4.0 0.8 8.0 53% .302 .281 1.41 4.11 4.59 106 4.76 116.6 0.2
2015 PIT MLB 26 26 164.0 9 7 0 174 49 143 11 .259 99 9.5 2.7 0.6 7.8 55% .336 .263 1.36 3.38 3.18 90 4.28 99.9 1.6
CareerMLB4354302731.31641570251911002513263.2591008.33.60.98.352%.295.2521.323.853.99924.0689.142.5

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA-
1996 KNG Rk 12 12 58.0 4 0 0 31 54 68 0 .000 4.8 8.4 0.0 10.6 0% .000 .000 1.47 4.45 3.88 0 0.00 0.0
1997 PTS A- 9 9 44.0 3 1 0 28 35 48 3 .000 5.7 7.2 0.6 9.8 0% .250 .000 1.43 5.02 4.70 0 0.00 0.0
1998 KNC A 20 20 119.0 10 4 0 74 45 186 3 .000 5.6 3.4 0.2 14.1 0% -.303 .000 1.00 1.88 1.97 0 0.00 0.0
1999 FLO MLB 7 7 41.3 4 2 0 37 25 33 3 .258 95 8.1 5.4 0.7 7.2 55% .281 .257 1.50 4.23 3.48 101 4.12 80.2
1999 PME AA 26 23 120.7 6 12 0 132 71 121 15 .000 9.8 5.3 1.1 9.0 0% -.565 .000 1.68 4.64 5.52 0 0.00 0.0
2000 FLO MLB 13 13 82.7 3 7 0 80 44 57 8 .258 94 8.7 4.8 0.9 6.2 48% .285 .266 1.50 4.60 4.79 115 7.47 143.8
2000 BRV A+ 2 2 7.3 0 0 0 4 6 6 0 .000 4.9 7.4 0.0 7.4 0% -.333 .000 1.37 4.21 3.70 0 0.00 0.0
2000 CLG AAA 1 1 5.0 0 0 0 0 3 6 0 .000 0.0 5.4 0.0 10.8 0% .000 .000 0.60 2.98 0.00 0 0.00 0.0
2001 FLO MLB 27 27 173.3 11 12 0 145 83 128 20 .255 94 7.5 4.3 1.0 6.6 50% .253 .252 1.32 4.58 4.05 106 5.06 104.8
2001 BRV A+ 2 2 9.3 0 0 0 4 4 10 0 .000 3.9 3.9 0.0 9.7 0% -.286 .000 0.86 2.34 1.94 0 0.00 0.0
2002 FLO MLB 31 29 204.3 12 9 0 153 90 203 12 .258 100 6.7 4.0 0.5 8.9 49% .266 .218 1.19 3.10 3.30 82 3.67 78.8
2003 FLO MLB 4 4 23.0 0 2 0 18 18 21 2 .259 94 7.0 7.0 0.8 8.2 54% .254 .278 1.57 4.88 4.70 107 6.13 128.4
2004 FLO MLB 20 19 120.0 7 6 0 102 38 113 9 .259 91 7.7 2.9 0.7 8.5 52% .285 .224 1.17 3.08 3.67 82 3.25 67.1
2004 JUP A+ 1 1 4.0 0 0 0 2 2 4 0 .000 4.5 4.5 0.0 9.0 0% .200 .000 1.00 2.72 0.00 0 0.00 0.0
2004 ABQ AAA 1 1 3.3 0 0 0 7 2 6 1 .000 19.1 5.5 2.7 16.4 0% .600 .000 2.73 6.54 10.91 0 0.00 0.0
2005 FLO MLB 32 32 209.0 12 12 0 184 79 198 12 .257 94 7.9 3.4 0.5 8.5 60% .298 .237 1.26 3.07 3.44 87 3.05 65.7
2006 TOR MLB 21 21 135.7 10 8 0 138 39 118 14 .264 106 9.2 2.6 0.9 7.8 53% .312 .243 1.30 3.82 3.98 82 3.40 69.2
2006 DUN A+ 2 2 8.1 0 0 0 9 2 6 0 .263 107 10.0 2.2 0.0 6.7 56% .360 .215 1.36 2.87 3.33 98 0.00 0.0
2006 NHP AA 1 1 6.1 1 0 0 2 3 9 1 .000 3.0 4.4 1.5 13.3 0% .111 .000 0.82 3.73 1.48 0 0.00 0.0
2006 SYR AAA 1 1 5.2 1 0 0 0 1 7 0 .262 118 0.0 1.7 0.0 12.1 75% .000 .071 0.19 1.54 0.00 84 3.26 95.5
2007 TOR MLB 25 25 165.7 10 8 0 131 66 176 23 .264 94 7.1 3.6 1.2 9.6 56% .261 .235 1.19 4.39 3.75 83 3.39 70.2
2007 SYR AAA 1 1 5.0 0 0 0 3 1 7 0 .257 89 5.4 1.8 0.0 12.6 64% .273 .177 0.80 0.97 1.80 85 2.79 87.7
2008 TOR MLB 35 34 221.3 18 10 0 211 86 231 19 .264 98 8.6 3.5 0.8 9.4 50% .314 .257 1.34 3.47 4.07 77 3.49 74.5
2009 NYA MLB 33 33 207.0 13 9 0 193 97 195 25 .263 110 8.4 4.2 1.1 8.5 44% .296 .247 1.40 4.37 4.04 101 4.49 96.2
2010 NYA MLB 33 33 186.7 10 15 0 204 78 145 25 .257 115 9.8 3.8 1.2 7.0 46% .319 .274 1.51 4.79 5.26 108 5.03 113.7
2011 NYA MLB 33 32 190.3 11 11 0 190 83 173 31 .261 106 9.0 3.9 1.5 8.2 51% .294 .285 1.43 4.81 5.15 101 4.43 103.0
2012 PIT MLB 31 31 202.3 16 10 0 189 62 180 18 .255 95 8.4 2.8 0.8 8.0 58% .294 .252 1.24 3.56 3.51 85 3.15 72.3
2012 BRD A+ 2 2 6.3 0 2 0 7 2 9 0 .256 107 9.9 2.8 0.0 12.8 44% .389 .270 1.42 1.97 8.53 86 3.04 67.8
2012 IND AAA 1 1 4.0 0 1 0 7 4 0 2 .262 97 15.8 9.0 4.5 0.0 41% .333 .441 2.75 12.65 11.25 123 7.84 178.1
2013 PIT MLB 30 30 191.0 10 11 0 165 67 209 11 .254 98 7.8 3.2 0.5 9.8 59% .305 .236 1.21 2.77 3.30 81 3.18 76.2
2014 PHI MLB 34 34 213.7 8 18 0 205 96 190 20 .261 97 8.6 4.0 0.8 8.0 53% .302 .281 1.41 4.11 4.59 106 4.76 116.6
2015 PIT MLB 26 26 164.0 9 7 0 174 49 143 11 .259 99 9.5 2.7 0.6 7.8 55% .336 .263 1.36 3.38 3.18 90 4.28 99.9

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2008 3530 0.4881 0.4329 0.7480 0.5937 0.2795 0.8671 0.5069 0.2520
2009 3369 0.4883 0.4173 0.7945 0.5690 0.2726 0.8921 0.6000 0.2055
2010 3086 0.4773 0.4339 0.7991 0.6062 0.2765 0.8936 0.6099 0.2009
2011 3180 0.4443 0.4365 0.7522 0.5973 0.3079 0.8981 0.5257 0.2478
2012 3032 0.5069 0.4436 0.7673 0.5849 0.2983 0.9055 0.4888 0.2327
2013 3006 0.4850 0.4371 0.7405 0.5693 0.3127 0.8843 0.4938 0.2595
2014 3454 0.4803 0.4149 0.7725 0.5781 0.2641 0.9041 0.5063 0.2275
2015 2487 0.4644 0.4371 0.7810 0.6061 0.2905 0.9057 0.5556 0.2190
Career251440.47970.43110.76910.58750.2870.89320.53540.2309

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-04-12 2014-04-17 DTD 5 4 Right Groin Hernia - -
2013-06-09 2013-07-07 15-DL 28 24 Right Lower Leg Strain Calf - -
2012-03-26 2012-04-21 15-DL 26 13 Right Face Recovery From Surgery Orbital Fracture From Bunting 2012-03-02 -
2012-02-29 2012-03-26 Camp 26 0 Right Face Surgery Orbital Fracture From Bunting 2012-03-02 -
2011-03-19 2011-03-31 Camp 12 0 General Medical Illness Virus -
2010-08-03 2010-08-10 DTD 7 6 Low Back Soreness -
2010-07-17 2010-07-17 DTD 0 0 Left Hand Laceration Punching Object -
2010-06-17 2010-06-21 DTD 4 4 Foot Soreness -
2008-07-10 2008-07-10 DTD 0 0 Face Surgery Root Canal 2008-07-10
2008-03-02 2008-03-02 Camp 0 0 Right Fingers Laceration Index Finger Nail -
2007-06-29 2007-08-12 15-DL 44 37 Right Shoulder Strain -
2007-06-13 2007-06-28 15-DL 15 13 Right Shoulder Strain -
2006-04-22 2006-06-22 60-DL 61 56 Right Elbow Soreness Scar Tissue -
2006-03-31 2006-04-15 15-DL 15 10 Right Elbow Recovery From Inflammation Scar Tissue -
2006-03-19 2006-03-31 Camp 12 0 Right Elbow Inflammation Scar Tissue -
2005-05-22 2005-05-31 DTD 9 9 Right Elbow Inflammation -
2004-09-13 2004-10-03 DTD 20 22 Right Elbow Inflammation -
2004-03-26 2004-06-03 60-DL 69 53 Right Elbow Recovery From Surgery Tommy John Surgery 2003-04-29
2003-04-26 2003-10-26 60-DL 183 138 Right Elbow Surgery Tommy John Surgery 2003-04-29
2003-03-21 2003-04-09 15-DL 19 8 Right Elbow Inflammation Synovitis -
2002-08-19 2002-09-14 15-DL 26 24 Right Elbow Contusion Batted Ball -
2001-03-31 2001-05-07 15-DL 37 29 Right Foot Fracture -
2000-03-26 2000-07-20 60-DL 116 93 Right Thumb Surgery Ulnar Collateral Ligament 2000-03-21 -
1998-04-05 1998-05-15 Minors 40 0 Right Hand Surgery Fracture - -
1997-06-17 1997-07-01 Minors 14 0 Left Foot Fracture -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2015 PIT $8,500,000
2014 PHI $11,250,000
2013 NYA $8,500,000
2013 PIT $8,000,000
2012 PIT $5,000,000
2012 NYA $11,500,000
2011 NYA $16,500,000
2010 NYA $16,500,000
2009 NYA $16,500,000
2008 TOR $13,200,000
2007 TOR $13,200,000
2006 TOR $2,200,000
2005 FLO $3,650,000
2004 FLO $2,500,000
2003 FLO $2,500,000
2002 FLO $367,500
2001 FLO $250,000
2000 FLO $204,000
YearsDescriptionSalary
16 yrPrevious$140,321,500
16 yrTotal$140,321,500

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
16 y 38 dDarek Braunecker1 year/$8.5M (2015)

Details
  • 1 year/$8.5M (2015). Signed by Pittsburgh as a free agent 11/14/14. To retire after 2015 season.
  • 2 years/$22.5M (2014-15). Signed by Philadelphia as a free agent 2/16/14. $7.5M signing bonus ($1M paid on 12/15/14, $2.75M on 1/15/15, $3.75M on 6/30/15). 14:$7.5M, 15:$15M mutual option ($1M buyout) or $7.5M player option. Buyout paid if Burnett has fewer than 30 starts in 2014 & one side declines. 2015 player option increases to $8.5M with 24 GS in 2014, $10M with 27 GS, $11.75M with 30 GS, $12.75M with 32 GS. Annual performance bonuses: $0.5M each for 24, 27 GS. $0.75M for 30 GS. Limited no-trade protection (may block trades to 20 clubs, including all clubs except Baltimore, Boston, Cincinnati, Kansas City, NY Mets, NY Yankees, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Washington). Philadelphia, Burnett declined $15M mutual option for 2015 11/1/14. Burnett declined $12.75M player option for 2015 11/3/14.
  • 5 years/$82.5M (2009-13). Signed by NY Yankees as a free agent 12/12/08. 09-13:$16.5M/year. Limited no-trade protection (may block trades to 10 clubs each year). Acquired by Pittsburgh in trade from NY Yankees 2/17/12. Pirates pay $5M of 2012 salary, $8M of 2013 salary.
  • 5 years/$55M (2006-10). Signed by Toronto as a free agent 12/05. $6M signing bonus. 06:$2M, 07-10:$12M/year. May opt out of contract after 2008 (exercised 11/13/08).
  • 1 year/$3.65M (2005). Re-signed by Florida 1/05 (avoided arbitration). Performance bonuses: $50,000 each for 190, 200, 210 innings pitched).
  • 1 year/$2.5M (2004). Re-signed by Florida 12/03 (avoided arbitration).
  • 1 year/$2.5M (2003). Lost arbitration with Florida 2/03 ($3.075M-$2.5M).
  • 1 year/$0.3675M (2002). Re-signed by Florida 2/02.
  • Acquired by Florida in trade from NY Mets 2/6/98.
  • Drafted by NY Mets 1995 (8-217) (Central Arkansas Christian HS, North Little Rock, Ark.).

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Platoon

SORT_FIELD PLATOON AVG OBP SLG TAv

Definition of multi-year splits

BP Annual Player Comments

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BP Articles

Click here to see articles tagged with A.J. Burnett

BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2014-06-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)what do you think Of an A.J. Burnett trade for Corey Dickerson in deep NL only, partial keeper league? Enoying the chat, thanks Paul!
(Dragonbreath from Gurnee, IL)
I'd prefer Dickerson side, but it's a fair trade. I think Burnett should be better than his low-4.00s ERA thus far. (Paul Sporer)
2014-04-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)A.J. Burnett has had control problems this year since the start of spring training. How concerned should we be?
(Kingpin from Grinnell, IA)
Not too concerned yet - it's early, and timing/command are often the last things to come around as a pitcher gets back into game shape. Keep in mind that Burnett has never been a control artist, was basically a 10% walk guy until he hit Pittsburgh, and it is not out of the question for him to regress back to that level this year.

On the jukebox: Soundgarden, "Rusty Cage" (Doug Thorburn)
2014-03-14 09:00:00 (link to chat)Can you survive a poor rotation to win a roto league? See Estrada and Burnett holding your #2 and #3 spots. Will great hitting, good streaming and good relievers providing the ratios be enough to win?
(flashtheleather from glove side)
It's possible, though easier in 4x4 when strikeouts aren't a factor. If you're going to go this route, I do like the idea of holding onto a guy like A.J. Burnett who provides a lot of strikeouts.

Last year in Tout Wars (NL), I stumbled into a $37 pitching staff. Latos was my ace, but the back end were a lot of risks. Cashner and Wood worked out but a lot of other guys didn't work out. You need to be really aggressive with your streamers. The more liberal the reserve rules are the better off you'll be. So to answer your question I think it's possible but you need a lot of luck. Don't try this unless your freeze list stinks and you have little if anything to lose. (Mike Gianella)
2014-02-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Drastic falloff in store for A.J. Burnett? Leave Pittsburgh where you're content and pitching supurbly with a dynamic young team that plays great defence behind you for basically, the opposite in Philly. Yeah, I get that.
(mmcd from ottawa)
Pride can be an ugly thing. I'm not sure if he'll have a drastic falloff, but his raw numbers will probably take a few steps back. (R.J. Anderson)
2013-11-22 14:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Doug, How do you view this year's free agent class for pitchers? Who are the top talents and who are the top values?
(JasonPennini from Denver)
It is a very weak class, even by today's revamped standards of free agency. I think the top talents are Hiroki Kuroda, Josh Johnson (already signed), and A.J. Burnett. Burnett will almost definitely be a great value given his desire to pitch only for the Pirates, and I think that Arroyo could be a good sign for a team with a big ballpark. I also liked the Huddy signing for the Giants. I am not big on guys like Garza (dislike his delivery), Ubaldo (worst. delivery. ever.), and Ervin Santana - players whose name value / 2013 performances could push up their prices.

On the jukebox: Drist, "Pollute the Sound" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-04-16 20:00:00 (link to chat)If G. Cole doesn't harness much better fastball command is he at worst a 3/4 or a total bust? I'm getting worried...
(Jim from PA)
It's way too early to worry about that. Even if Cole never develops the way he has the potential to, he can still be an A.J. Burnett type. (Bret Sayre)
2013-04-10 20:00:00 (link to chat)Should I give Kipnis/Burnett for Gyorko/Hosmer?? Thanks! Great Stuff!
(tB from Auburn)
Hi tB.

If you can afford to trade the speed and have a pitcher in reserve to fill in for A.J. Burnett, make the trade. Eric Hosmer is better than Jason Kipnis as a pure talent and while A.J. Burnett might be better than Jedd Gyorko this year, you're getting a much younger player for a player at or near the end of the line. (Mike Gianella)
2013-04-18 14:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Daniel, We now have the good (AJ Burnett), the bad (JMac), and the ugly (JSanchez). Is this SSS for all, or is there any hope that the bad and ugly get a little better and prettier, and AJ stays good?
(Sweet Lou from Pittsburgh)
Hey, Sweet Lou.

Having watched Jonathan Sanchez vacillate between solid and terrible during his time with the Giants, I'm afraid the ugly might stay ugly. I do think there's hope with James McDonald, though, perhaps once he learns how to better utilize his new approach (which R.J. Anderson detailed earlier this week: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20251).

And I do believe that A.J. Burnett will be as effective this year as he was last. Considering he was a 3.3 WARP pitcher in 2012, there's plenty to like about that. (Daniel Rathman)
2012-07-09 14:00:00 (link to chat)Daniel, You're doing terrific work with BP, and it's great to get the chance to chat with you. As for our local 9 here in Boston, is there a point at which you simply acknowledge that some guys you've paid a lot of money to are dragging the team down, and deal them to get a fresh start? Theo's trade of Nomar back in 2004 actually breathed fresh air into that team. I'm not forecasting a series appearance, but would the Sox be wise to contemplate unloading Beckett and continuing to pursue more of a TEAM culture?
(Peter Olrich from Boston)
Thanks for the kind words, Peter.

Lots of questions about what the Red Sox should do at the deadline and in the near future, so I'll try to pack it all into one answer. A couple of things to keep in mind for those saying the Sox should buy: 1) They have a bit of a 40-man roster crunch; 2) They don't have much money to work with, especially in relation to the luxury tax.

Now, regarding this question, I don't know if Ben Cherington can sell a "fresh start" to a fan base so used to being in contention, but I do think the team needs one. The trouble with those bad contracts is that you'd need someone to re-hire Tony Reagins for Cherington to be able to dump them. That said, if the Sox can do something with John Lackey similar to what the Yankees did with A.J. Burnett this past offseason, I don't think Cherington will mind admitting that the deal was a mistake. And if there's a mutually beneficial deal with Beckett -- something that actually helps the team in 2013 -- I think he'd consider that, too. (Daniel Rathman)
2012-03-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)Players like Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon will/may miss chunks of the season but for different reasons. Which older players with either reduced roles or other circumstances limiting games played are worth gambling on this season?
(Tony035 from Toronto, ON)
Juan Pierre is interesting in Philadelphia, at least for the first couple months of the year for cheap steals. Tim Hudson might miss a month of the year, but he'll be good when he's healthy, and he came pretty cheap in LABR this weekend ($7). A.J. Burnett same deal ($3), but I like him in the NL and PNC Park. (Derek Carty)
2012-02-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)Should I be concerned about Pineda showing overweight? I'm worried the yanks just traded the new Edgar, albeit with an earlier start to his career. Who disappoints more this season? Pineda or Ivan (Aldo) Nova?
(Nick Stone from On vacation in western MA)
Hey, Nick! 6-foot-7 guys can gain or lose 10 pounds between brunch and lunch, so I wouldn't sweat this - it's when your beat reporter files a column saying that the player in question showed up with a third buttock that you've really got to worry.

Now, why so glum? You're really in a pessimistic mood if you're banking on both of them disappointing just two days after pitchers and catchers report, and a day after the A.J. Burnett trade became official. I think it may take Pineda a bit of adjustment in the new ballpark, but his upside is considerably higher than that of Nova. (Jay Jaffe)
2011-09-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)Considering how Colon has fared in recent starts, wouldn't it make sense to skip him once? I can't help but think he's gassed after pitching only intermittently the past few years. Any ideas about Sweaty Freddy Garcia? He seems to have lost his touch since the knife incident.
(Nick Stone from New York, NY)
It might make sense to skip Colon, though it's worth noting that his two unsettling starts this month have come against the Blue Jays, who have absolutely pasted him this year (26 runs, 21 earned, in 23.2 innings). Take those away and his RA/9 drops from 4.56 to 3.40. Fortunately for him, Toronto won't be making the playoffs. Both of his starts would come against the Rays; the first one is the nightcap of tomorrow's doubleheader, but I'd consider resting him for the second one, or restricting him to a short appearance.

I'd be more concerned about Garcia, who has suddenly gone gopher happy in his last few turns. As I wrote today at Pinstriped Bible (http://www.pinstripedbible.com/2011/09/20/upside-downer), the bottom line is that the Yankees have their hands full figuring out their postseason rotation, determining if Phil Hughes' late mini-surge is enough to justify giving him a start ahead of one of those Scrap Heapers (I think the vote is in on A.J. Burnett). (Jay Jaffe)
2010-12-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)What chance do you give A.J. Burnett to return to form next season?
(Jess from NYC)
70%. He isn't as bad as he looked last year. (Eric Seidman)
2010-10-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Rangers and Yankees, ALCS...who ya got?
(Adam J. Morris from lonestarball.com)
Thanks for stopping by, Adam. Rangers in five, they will drop game four when Tommy Hunter starts and A.J. Burnett plays the role of Good A.J. long enough to redeem his second half, but otherwise, it's all Rangers. (Marc Normandin)
2010-10-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)What are the chances the Red Sox end up with fair value on the John Lackey contract? Lackey looked like a better pitcher in the second half, but he looked cooked in the first so maybe I'm just straw grasping here...
(mattymatty2000 from Portland, OR)
He'll be better, and he'll deliver more value than A.J. Burnett, the man whose contract his own resembles. In terms of value, in a market where the price of top available free agent hurlers seems to be set by the Sox and Yankees, that's fair performance on fair market value. (Christina Kahrl)
2010-09-30 13:00:00 (link to chat)Roster construction. I know teams used to go 15 hitters/10 pitchers like it was nothing. In considering it for the Phillies or Yankees playoffs (last year) though, I'm unsure. On the one hand, you have 3 starters who will make most of the starts, so only a 7 man bullpen is necessary, but you're also unlikely to pinch hit for these starters or your hitters, so are the bench players (Bocock, Dobbs) just as useless as the relievers (Baez, Bastardo)
(Jay from Philly)
The leverage of the situations in which you would use the last hitters, though, is going to be higher than the leverage of the situations in which you'll use the extra pitchers. It's also easier to get advantages offensively than it is defensively because of the game's rules. I am completely and utterly convinced that postseason roster construction is a massive fail for the industry as a whole.

As an example, the Giants will roster Barry Zito, who has no value in a short series, because he's a veteran with a contract. If the Yankees don't start A.J. Burnett, he should be left off; he won't. There's too much of this, and that's before you get into the decisions made for nominally tactical reasons.

Everyone needs to play Strat. It really does teach you this stuff. (Joe Sheehan)
2010-03-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)Fantasy Starter most likely to get you 200 K's and have you question whether the rest of the baggage was worth it?
(Aaron from YYZ)
A.J. Burnett. His PECOTA forecast makes him look like a three-star guy but I'm popping him in with the fours as of right now. (Marc Normandin)
2009-11-02 15:00:00 (link to chat)What has been the biggest difference between how you saw the WS playing out (Phils in 7) and how it's actually played out?
(jamin67038 from Wichita, KS)
A.J. Burnett pitched fantastamatically, and Cliff Lee turned into Joe Blanton last night. I've actually gotten every single game wrong, based on my pre-Series pick. Don't try this at home! (Joe Sheehan)
2009-11-02 15:00:00 (link to chat)The yankees have to just win one out of three games. Why not start Gaudin tonight against Cliff Lee, and have Burnett on full rest +1 for game 6 in the Bronx?
(Mike from Chicago)
Because A.J. Burnett/3 and Andy Pettitte/3 are better than Chad Gaudin/32 and A.J. Burnett/5. And because you don't get cute in the World Series. Well, unless you're up one run in the eighth inning. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-09-24 14:00:00 (link to chat)Shouldn't a clear-eyed Yankee fan be concerned about starting pitching in the playoffs?
(ekanenh from Capitol City)
Absolutely. Andy Pettitte's quality start Monday certainly makes everyone breathe easier, but A.J. Burnett is a dice roll, and they have apparently screwed up Joba Chamberlain something fierce. (The lesson here is that very-low-pitch-count starts are apparently not the way to manage workloads for young starter.) Only CC Sabathia is someone you can expect to be healthy and effective throughout October...and he's the guy who'll be facing Verlander and Lester. The rotation is the Yankees' biggest concern, and at that, they're the postseason favorite. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-05-28 14:00:00 (link to chat)Drop a comp on Tommy Hanson. Ben Sheets? Chad Billingsley (stuff-wise), A.J. Burnett?
(Nate from CT)
Someone who saw him last year in Arizona threw a John Smoltz on him. (Kevin Goldstein)
2009-05-04 14:00:00 (link to chat)You think Philip Hughes is going to stick this time?
(casey from santa cruz)
Yeah, I do. I think he'll pitch well and stick, and either Wang will be used out of the bullpen or the team will do something stupid with Chamberlain. So if you're a Yankee fan, you're now reduced to *hoping* A.J. Burnett gets hurt to keep that from happening. Baseball's weird. (Joe Sheehan)
2008-11-03 13:30:00 (link to chat)Assuming the Orioles would match the high bidders (a big assumption, I know), do you think the geographical connections would lead either or Both of A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira to sign with the O's? Or is their status as an also-ran to much to overcome?
(Playwright22 from Baltimore)
I guess I look at any sentient adult's chances of signing with the Orioles, and I'd ask what they were smoking, or if they just needed the money. The latter is an entirely justifiable motive, but if you were a premium free agent who could punch your ticket to any destination in the majors, why would you pick the AL East's definitive also-ran? (Christina Kahrl)
2008-09-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)Are the Jays contenders if they would have started the season with Gaston and giving Lind more playing time or is this just a nice looking winning streak that has happened late in the season?
(Ted from at the pool)
Lind's presence over the dessicated remains of Shannon Stewart or Kevin Mench/Brad Wilkerson certainly would have improved matters, but there's a lot of other factors that would have had to go right - better health (and fortune) from Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, B.J. Ryan, Vernon Wells, Scott Rolen... wow, that's a lot right there. A.J. Burnett avoiding his mid-season cold streak, too. Given some better luck in breaks like those, they coulda been contenders, but as it is, it's just a nice-looking winning streak. Their potential as spoilers (7 games vs. Boston as Joe from Tewksbury mentioned above) probably shouldn't be underestimated. (Jay Jaffe)
2008-07-30 12:30:00 (link to chat)How about A.J. Burnett? He had a great start the other night and since the trade talks got started he seems to have responded well.
(Tim from Sonoma, CA)
J.P. Ricciardi says he is staying and there doesn't seem to be much talk about Burnett floating out there. (John Perrotto)
2008-06-25 14:00:00 (link to chat)Does the Blue Jays offense have it in them to turn it around and save JP's job? (making Cito the hero of millions once again in the process) Or should they start looking at things like AJ Burnett to the Brewers for a shiny prospect? (Gamel?)
(Aaron from YYZ)
It shouldn't be a good offense based on its rather limited talent, and it isn't. And that division makes their situation very difficult. I absolutely think that the Blue Jays need to start thinking about whether they could get someone like Matt LaPorta for someone like A.J. Burnett. (Nate Silver)
2008-06-20 13:30:00 (link to chat)Let's go worst-case scenario and say Big Z is out for the year. Should the Cubs trade for A.J. Burnett (or whoever) or give Hill and/or Marshall another shot?
(Stephen from Louisville)
Rich Hill is something like the 25th-best starter in the National League. I have no idea what he did to Lou Piniella, but he can take Zambrano's place with minimal loss in value. (Joe Sheehan)


BP Roundtables

DateRoundtable NameComment
2010-10-06 10:00:002010 Playoffs Day OneAs I wrote over at the Pinstriped Bible, putting Moseley and Mitre on the Yankees roster was an act of supreme pessimism, especially when they also threw A.J. Burnett into the pen. Just how much long relief do they expect to need and still win the series? (Steven Goldman)
2009-11-02 17:00:002009 WS Game FiveA.J. Burnett didn't get hammered tonight because he was starting on three days' rest. He got hammered because he's A.J. Burnett, and sometimes he does this. And, yeah, the Phillies' lineup is really freaking good.

The game isn't even over yet and I'm sick of this story. Call for moratorium on "days rest". (Joe Sheehan)
2009-10-28 17:00:002009 WS Game OneNot to oversell it, but this series seems, to me, to change a LOT with a Phillies win. They now get the roulette wheel that is A.J. Burnett, followed by Cole Hamels at home. A lot can happen in those games, of course, but suddenly Phillies in seven seems...long.
(Joe Sheehan)
 

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