Baseball Prospectus

MLB Statistics

Statistics for All Levels

Statistics For All Levels

Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 82)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	90	Rafael Palmeiro	2001	148
2	89	Hideki Matsui	2010	126
3	89	Travis Hafner	2013	94
4	88	Luke Scott	2014	0	DNP
5	88	Mark Teixeira	2016	85
6	88	Ryan Klesko	2007	90
7	88	Vladimir Guerrero	2011	99
8	87	Cliff Floyd	2009	62
9	87	David Justice	2002	108
10	87	Derrek Lee	2012	0	DNP
11	87	Paul Konerko	2012	131
12	87	Mike Piazza	2005	111
13	87	Bob Watson	1982	107
14	87	Aubrey Huff	2013	0	DNP
15	86	Eduardo Perez	2006	98
16	86	Norm Cash	1971	146
17	86	Adam LaRoche	2016	0	DNP
18	85	Al Oliver	1983	100
19	85	Don Baylor	1985	112
20	85	Paul Molitor	1993	141
21	85	Pedro Guerrero	1992	63
22	85	Andre Thornton	1986	113
23	84	Hal McRae	1982	141
24	84	Harold Baines	1995	147
25	84	John Wockenfuss	1985	90
26	84	Oscar Gamble	1986	0	DNP
27	84	Eddie Murray	1992	112
28	84	Stan Musial	1957	151
29	84	Lyle Overbay	2013	91
30	84	Adrian Gonzalez	2018	92
31	83	Rocky Nelson	1961	89
32	83	Mike Sweeney	2010	121
33	83	Dwight Evans	1988	132
34	83	Frank Thomas	2004	154
35	83	Albert Pujols	2016	119
36	83	Keith Hernandez	1990	79
37	82	Frank McCormick	1947	106
38	82	Julio Franco	1995	0	DNP
39	82	Chili Davis	1996	126
40	82	Roy Sievers	1963	113
41	82	Kevin Millar	2008	105
42	82	Billy Williams	1974	132
43	82	Ray Boone	1960	88
44	82	Mike Stanley	1999	124
45	81	Ron Fairly	1975	136
46	81	Tony Oliva	1975	107
47	81	Sid Gordon	1954	133
48	81	Bobby Murcer	1982	103
49	81	Fred McGriff	2000	115
50	81	Carlos Beltran	2013	123
51	81	Magglio Ordonez	2010	133
52	81	Monte Irvin	1955	90
53	81	Michael Cuddyer	2015	94
54	81	Orlando Cepeda	1974	82
55	81	Aramis Ramirez	2014	113
56	80	Will Clark	2000	139
57	80	Don Money	1983	67
58	80	Bill Terry	1935	116
59	80	David Ortiz	2012	165
60	80	Torii Hunter	2012	116
61	80	Joe Judge	1930	123
62	80	Tim Salmon	2005	0	DNP
63	80	Zack Wheat	1924	143
64	80	Moises Alou	2003	112
65	80	Todd Helton	2010	101
66	80	Justin Morneau	2017	0	DNP
67	80	Olmedo Saenz	2007	91
68	80	Michael Young	2013	95
69	80	Javy Lopez	2007	0	DNP
70	80	Champ Summers	1982	105
71	79	J.D. Drew	2012	0	DNP
72	79	Eddie Mathews	1968	103
73	79	Joe Kuhel	1942	96
74	79	Matt Holliday	2016	109
75	79	Chris Chambliss	1985	89
76	79	Raul Ibanez	2008	116
77	79	Rod Carew	1982	112
78	79	Jim Hickman	1973	111
79	79	Bobby Abreu	2010	117
80	79	Minnie Minoso	1962	66
81	79	Jim Rice	1989	83
82	79	Dusty Baker	1985	120
83	79	Ben Oglivie	1985	110
84	79	Mickey Vernon	1954	121
85	79	Joe Harris	1927	123
86	79	Al Kaline	1971	148
87	79	Bill White	1970	0	DNP
88	79	Mark DeRosa	2011	77
89	79	Bob Elliott	1953	99
90	78	George Brett	1989	127
91	78	Terry Crowley	1983	88
92	78	Dale Long	1962	101
93	78	Rico Carty	1976	139
94	78	Denny Walling	1990	76
95	78	Paul O'Neill	1999	104
96	78	Curtis Granderson	2017	107
97	78	Rondell White	2008	0	DNP
98	78	Harvey Hendrick	1934	74
99	78	David Segui	2003	91
100	78	Brian Downing	1987	133

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		Pearce is Mr. Inconsistent. Historically praised for his ability to hit lefties, he fulfilled the reputation in 2014 and 2016 by posting a 1.109 and 1.032 OPS against them, respectively. In those two seasons, that made him one of the league's 20 best hitters. In 2015 and 2017, however, he wasn’t even as good as the average hitter. He went from hitting lefties as well as Mike Trout does to hitting them as poorly as Kevin Pillar. In both seasons he was even worse against lefties than against righties. On the plus side, 2018 is a new year and an even year, so if the gods of inconsistency are to have their way, Pearce will be Troutastic against southpaws once again.
2017		Despite a rough 2015, Pearce has proven himself a more than capable hitter with above-average power, good plate discipline and enough athleticism to play average or better defense in left field or at first base. That, at least, was true through his age-33 season. Blooming late doesn't guarantee a late decline, and Pearce's injury history might even hint at an early one. He can help any team in need of a good bat off the bench, but the less you're counting on him, the better.
2016		At least it's never boring. A year after overshooting his 90th percentile projection, Pearce undershot his 10th percentile. He played the outfield, some first base and even a handful of games at the keystone (for the first time in his professional career), as he tried to convince Buck Showalter to justify writing “Pearce” on the lineup card long enough for him to figure this thing out. The destruction of southpaws was the predominant aspect of his 2014 breakout, but he summoned Mendoza for a .623 OPS against them in 2015. The stat line gives the impression that Pearce reverted to old tactics, but there was at least one subtle improvement in his game: He figured out the curveball. He hit six bombs off the bender last season, after failing to leave the yard against any of the 500-plus curves he had seen in his career.
2015		Scholars don't typically keep track of such records, but Pearce might have had the best season ever by someone whose own team released him in the same season. He was re-signed two days after Chris Davis got injured in April, and by a technicality—the Orioles fielded a 24-man roster for a day—they were able to circumvent the 30-day waiting period to re-add Pearce to the active roster. Few experience breakout years at age 31, but Pearce outhit even Davis' PECOTA projection, and was also a valuable defender, being credited with nine Defensive Runs Saved (best in the AL) in just 400 innings at the position. The margins are small for lefty-mashing corner guys, even after such a charmed season, but Pearce's .279/.360/.496 line against righties buys him at least three or four months of not having to check the lineup card each day.
2014		After a 2012 in which Pearce changed organizations six different times, including twice apiece to the Yankees and Orioles, 2013 might have been as relaxing and anxiety-free as baseball gets for the ex-Pirate: no waivers, no releases, no trades. Pearce did lose two months to left wrist tendinitis, but the disabled list is nothing compared to being claimed and then waived by the Astros. He'll still mash a lefty if you let him, but there aren't enough lefties in the league to get rich doing so. Not to be confused with the British equestrian painter, New Mexico Congressman or owner of Soft Cell's first record label. (You'd be surprised.)
2013		Once a top prospect in the Pirates organization, Pearce has been reduced to a hollow shell of his former self. In the past year, unbelievably, he's been mauled by a squirrel, ambushed on The Jerry Springer Show, and claimed off waivers five times. Okay, only that last one's true. It's telling that he was even discarded by the lowly Astros, which is like flunking out of fourth-grade remedial English as a high-school senior. He still shows patience and power at the minor-league level, but he has never been able to handle right-handed pitching in the bigs. Hitters who are lefty specialists don't get nearly the same job security as their pitching counterparts.
2012		Injuries and the worst managerial malady of them all�veteran obsession�killed Pearce�s chance of having a meaningful career with the Pirates. Pearce made the team out of spring training and hit acceptably (.291/.339/.382 in 62 plate appearances) before suffering a partially torn calf muscle. When he returned, the only thing he accomplished was successfully torpedoing his seasonal line (.077/.143/.077 in 43 plate appearances). True to form, Pearce then missed the rest of the year when he broke a finger. Better suited for first base or right field than third base, Pearce has hit major league lefties and could be a useful bench piece should he ever stay healthy.
2011		The Pirates' front office was granted a fourth minor-league option for Pearce last winter, meaning that he won't be subjected to waivers if he fails to make the club in spring training and faces the strong possibility of spending the large part of another summer in Indianapolis playing Triple-A ball. Pearce, who underwent season-ending knee surgery last August, will be 28 this season and has nothing left to prove in the International League. He may not be an everyday player, but he can hit for power against left-handers (.304/.372/.552 in 129 major-league PAs), which would have made him a good short side of a platoon at first base with Garrett Jones if the Pirates had not decided to sign Lyle Overbay instead.
2010		Pearce hasn't come close to matching his outstanding 2007 season, during which he began the year in Low-A and ended it in the majors while being named the Pirates' minor-league player of the year. He's been stalled out ever since, struggling to make much with his sporadic opportunities in the majors. Heading into his age-27 season, Pearce will go to spring training with a small chance of winning the starting first baseman's job, but he is definitely a long shot behind Jeff Clement, and may have to settle for a shot to stick as a right-handed bench bat behind Clement at first and Jones in right.
2009		No doubt about it, Pearce was a massive disappointment last season. Making matters worse was his status as the Pirates' Minor League Player of the Year in 2007, when he'd begun the year at Lynchburg and finished it slugging his way all the way up to the major leagues. He had a good spring in 2008, but struggled in Triple-A after that good camp didn't lead anywhere but Indy. He experienced a curious power outage when called up, going 78 PA before touching off a home run. However, he did hit four of them in September, so while he'll be coming into his age-27 season without having really established himself, he'll get a shot at a starting corner outfield spot.
2008		Pearce has hit ever since being drafted out of high school by the Pirates in the eighth-round in 2005. He had one of the best seasons in the minor leagues in 2007, beginning the year in High-A, ending it in the major leagues, and hitting a combined .333/.394/.622 on the way up. Pearce does not look the part of an athlete with his short, stocky build, but he stole 16 bases in 19 attempts last season and quickly made the conversion from first baseman to right fielder in Triple-A. He did not tear up the majors as a September call-up, but was not overmatched either and has the look of a productive middle-of-the-order hitter.
2007		Pearce hit just enough between Hickory and Lynchburg last year to keep himself on the periphery of the Pirates` plans. He stayed hot immediately after his promotion, but cooled considerably in the second half. He has the reputation of being a bit clumsy, and his 10-for-22 career stolen base record is an indication that, once on board, he best stay where he is and let somebody else move him around. Given his age, rate of progress and accomplishment, and how hard it is to make it as a major league first baseman, there`s a good chance that this listing is purely a courtesy.

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