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2019 Preseason Forecast
Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET
|2013-11-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Who were you more wrong on? Jeff Clement, Brandon Wood, Andy LaRoche, or Erik Hurley?|
(Wesley from Utah)
|I wasn't really on the national level then, so none of the above. I was really wrong on former Rangers prospect Michael Main. I loved his combination of athleticism and stuff. Back in 2008, I saw him sitting 92-95 with a low-80s hammer. He was a monster. I saw a frontline starter type, and at the time, I thought he had the type of makeup to get there. But he got sick (mono or something similar), lost a lot of muscle and added bad weight, lost some of his athleticism and ability to repeat, seemed to lose the work ethic that previous defined him, and eventually gave up the mound and returned to bat. Its a case of being wrong about the outcome but I still feel confident in why I made the projection in the first place. I liked the process. It just didn't happen. (Jason Parks)|
|2013-05-30 13:30:00 (link to chat)||Thanks for the BPA answer; now a followup. I was really thinking more along the lines of my second case, where an organization seems unable to develop a particular skill set. Example: how long has it been since Seattle has developed a worthwhile catcher? Many years, unless your definition of "worthwhile" is odd enough to include Jeff Clement. Should that cause them to shy away from a toolsy but raw catcher with a top pick?|
(Bill from New Mexico)
|If there are two players that they value equally, then maybe, but if the catcher is easily the highest rated player on their board, then I would advocate they draft that player. If an organization consistently has trouble developing some type of player, then at some point you have to look at the developmental philosophy/personnel, rather than looking at the acquisition method. (Mark Anderson)|
|2011-12-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Did the Rangers really screw up by not trading one of Salty, Ramirez and Teagarden when their values were all high?|
(rwinter from Boston)
|In the sense that they didn't trade prospects who flopped, sure. You could say that about every team and every prospect who flopped. Did the Angels err in not trading Brandon Wood when he was a top-10 prospect? In retrospect, of course, but there was no way of knowing that.
The fact that all three of those players flopped in their own ways supports the decision to keep all of them, though, instead of treating them as depth. Catchers have a brutal attrition rate. Baseball America's top 100 in 2000 included six catchers: Eric Munson, Ben Petrick, Matt LeCroy, Jayson Werth (Orioles), Steve Lomasney, Ryan Christianson. In 2001: Joe Lawrence, Dane Sardinha, Brandon Inge, J.R. House. In 2002: Mauer, Josh Phelps, House, John Buck, Werth (Blue Jays), Victor Martinez. In 2003: Mauer, Martinez, Jeff Mathis, Justin Huber, Buck.
In 2007, when the Rangers had to make this decision, Kevin Goldstein ranked the catchers in the minors. He named 17 players. These are the 17:
Out of those 17, there are basically one and a half every day catchers, maaaaaaybe another one in Hank Conger, and a DH. We thought the Rangers had three catchers, plus Gerald Laird. In fact, they had Gerald Laird.
2007 Baseball Prospectus Annual: "When Teagarden is behind the dish, he's one of the top defensive catchers around. If he can stay there, he's Mickey Tettleton with defensive chops."
2008 Baseball Prospectus Annual: "If you want to get really dreamy and optimistic, think Mickey Tettleton with Gold Glove-level skills, and you get the picture."
This is why comps are the best/worst. (Sam Miller)
|2010-07-01 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Is Jeff Clement likely to ever be a starter again?|
(goiter6 from MN)
|In Triple-A, sure. (Kevin Goldstein)|
|2010-02-16 16:00:00 (link to chat)||What do you expect to see in terms of production from Andy LaRoche, Lastings Milledge and Jeff Clement this year? Do you think any of them will have a breakout-type season that will give Pirates' management enough of a feeling that they are part of the long term solution in the rebuild?|
(Mark from Pittsburgh)
|Milledge is at least young and has shown raw talent. LaRoche is a ground ball hitting corner infielder with average speed. (Literally, he was dead on average last year.) Jeff Clement had a .295 OBP last year. Not the sort of guy I'd put my faith in. Maybe Milledge sticks. LaRoche can be had elsewhere. (Russell A. Carleton)|
|2010-01-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Does Jeff Clement still have a good shot at opening the season as the Pirates first baseman even after the Ryan Church signing?|
(Stu from Charlotte)
|The Pirates really want to see what Clement can do. I'd be really surprised if he isn't starting on opening day. (John Perrotto)|
|2009-08-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Hi John, thanks for the chat. What are your thoughts on Garrett Jones and Jeff Clement? How well do you think they will do next year and what positions do you think they will play?|
(Dennis from California)
|I think Jones will start the season in the starting lineup either at first or right field, depending on what happens with Clement. I have some doubts about Clement. The Mariners really soured on him and he certainly is a one-dimensional player. It will be interesting to see how he fares with the Pirates in September. (John Perrotto)|
|2009-08-04 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Who will have the better MLB career, Jeff Clement or Daric Barton?
(MikeAlan from N.C.)
|Ah, Chagrin '09, an excellent vintage, best served tepid. I'm more optimistic about Clement at this point given the opportunity he has in that organization, but that could be a grass/greener issue for me. (Christina Kahrl)|
|2009-08-04 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Is Jeff Clement finally going to get a shot? |
(Jon from Oregon)
|If you can't get an opportunity with the Pirates, what comes next? Japan? Mexico? Albania? (Christina Kahrl)|
|2009-06-03 15:00:00 (link to chat)||Jeff Clement: Are the Mariners going to use him at any point this season?|
(jlebeck66 from WI)
|Perhaps for an organ donation, if he's a match for Griffey or Felix Hernandez.
Seriously, I don't understand this one. They must really hate the living **** out of Clement's defense to let him linger for so long, and they've really dented his trade value. I certainly have more faith in Jack Z's judgment than that of Bill Bavasi, but Clement needs a ticket out of that organization stat. (Jay Jaffe)
|2009-06-03 15:00:00 (link to chat)||Hi Jay, thanks for your great work and the chat. What is your prognosis for my Angels this season? Time to send Kendrick and Aybar down and bring up Sean Rodriguez and Brandon Wood? |
(Dennis from Monterey Park, CA)
|I'd say the Howie Kendrick party is over, and while I don't think much of Rodriguez, the time to see what Wood can do is long overdue. Seriously, I think he and Jeff Clement are drinking from the same jug of bad organizational karma.
Three more questions. (Jay Jaffe)
|2009-04-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Joe, with Johjima out the Ms have brought up Jamie Burke instead of Jeff Clement. Could the Mariners have done more to drive down Clement's trade value than starting him in AAA and leaving him down there?|
(Nick from nyc)
|I don't know. They could leak that he has an auto-immune disease, or that he was a predatory lender. Once the Mariners signed Griffey, Clement was screwed, but the Johjima injury should have saved him. It was a chance to give him two weeks of catching in the majors to see if he can really play the position. The only guess I'd make is that they've decided he can't, and that his future is at 1B/DH.
Lightning round. I could do this all day, but I'm getting hungry. (Joe Sheehan)
|2009-02-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Good to see you back.
There seems to be no general consensus on Tyler Flowers. What is your projection?|
(scottlong from indy)
|Always good to hear from an ex-colleague and a fellow Hawkeye. I think Flowers future really depends on whether or not the White Sox are willing to take the hit on defense. He's like Jeff Clement in the sense that there's just no way to project anything but a negative in his fielding column. With Paul Konerko nearing the end of days, I think I might just move Flowers to first base and let him hit. However, that's a big positional adjustment, and it's not like A.J. Pierzynski has been providing fantastic defense the last few seasons. I wouldn't, but don't be surprised if the White Sox let him be behind the plate. (Bryan Smith)|
|2009-01-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)||With the news that Posada might not be as healthy as hoped, the Yankees' need for a viable back-up catcher has become more urgent. What are their options, considering that they are reportedly willing to part with Nady?|
(Nick Stone from New York, NY)
|Hey Nick! Good question, as there's no doubt that the Yanks need to do a better job of protecting against Posada's absence than they've done in the past. Now that Brad Ausmus is off the market (my hand should be healed by the end of spring training, thanks), the best available option on the free agent market is the one that Joe Girardi spent two months kicking in the head last year -- Pudge Rodriguez. He was enjoying a bit of a rebound before he started rotting on the Yankee bench in favor of Jose Frakkin' Molina.
On the trade market, I'm not sure if anyone's gonna give up much of a catcher for Nady, but I wonder if a youngster with upside like Jeff Clement, Bryan Anderson or even J.R. Towles could be pried loose with a package involving, say, Ian Kennedy. I'm a horrible matchmaker when it comes to prospect-based trades -- it's why Brian Cashman doesn't take my calls. (Jay Jaffe)
|2008-11-03 13:30:00 (link to chat)||Christina! Thanks, as always, for the chat. How much value should teams place on the defense of their backup catcher? Would it create valuable roster flexibility for a team to have a guy like Ryan Garko or Jayson Werth or Josh Willingham catch one day a week? Or is that just re-arranging the deck chairs? Iím also wondering if this would preserve some of the positional value of prospects who just donít look like they can catch every day, such as Jeff Clement or Hank Conger.|
(Rob from Alaska)
|You're talking to somebody who fell in love with everything about catchers back when you had backups like Johnny Wockenfuss and Bill Schroeder, guys who really weren't much behind the plate, but gave you something in the lineup, and who hit well enough to have value DHing or playing some first base. (Naturally, that makes me a Chris Coste fan. Jim Leyritz too, for that matter.) While a guy as big and as fragile as Werth would give me pause, I think it makes plenty of sense in Garko's case. I wonder about Willingham, but in part that's because I sort of fancy the notion that he could grow up to be the next Brian Downing. (Christina Kahrl)|
|2008-11-03 13:30:00 (link to chat)||What would the Red Sox have to give the Mariners to get Jeff Clement? After last year's Bedard trade I wonder if Theo could pull a fast one on the Seattle front office.|
(Bill from CT)
|Not going to happen, not unless the new sheriff in town, Jack Zduriencik, decides Clement can't catch. Remember, Bill Bavasi is, at this moment, an ex-parrot. (Christina Kahrl)|
|2008-09-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)||what player do you think will turn into the carlos quinten of 2009? a player stuck between AAA and the majors and never gets a chance to prove himself but when he finally does he goes off|
(krgrecw from cola sc)
|I think it's a bit of a misconception that Quentin was never given an opportunity in Phoenix--he did, and he blew it. The Snakes then made the overlapping decisions to bring up Justin Upton and (unfortunately) to commit to Eric Byrnes on a multi-year deal. The former made sense, and the latter was something a few of us here panned pretty vociferously at the time. The upshot was that Quentin became available, and while dealing from a surplus is fine in principle, the Snakes didn't have a surplus, they had an affectation for Eric Byrnes. That's a gift that's going to keep on giving.
As a result, I don't have an answer per se, in that Quentin's situation was unfortunate, but then his explosion, to this extent, was also very much unanticipated, both inside and outside the game. A year ago, some people might have said Steven Pearce was that guy; it's fun to say that Dallas McPherson could be, but he's not that good either. If you're looking for guys who had bumpy rookie years who should blossom as sophomores, I'd suggest Carlos Gonzalez in Oakland, or Jeff Clement in Seattle. (Christina Kahrl)
|2008-05-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Does Paul DePodesta becoming GM in Seattle make too much sense or do you see him simply being Kevin Towers' eventual heir? |
(R.J. from BeyondtheBoxscore)
|Good question. I'm not sure how that Seattle job plays out, but I think Bavasi bought his way out of the job for good by giving Kenji Johjima a three year, $25 million extension in late April. Johjima's 32, he's down to .217/.259/.304, and now Jamie Burke is going to start catching for both Bedard and Washburn, presumably because of Johjima's struggles and because those pitchers would rather throw to Burke. In other news, Jeff Clement has homered in three straight down in Triple-A. (Caleb Peiffer)|
|2008-05-09 14:00:00 (link to chat)||re: Jeff Clement... even if that obstacle is Kenji?|
(strupp from Madison)
|DH and/or first base would be the paths of least resistance, given Clement's problematic glovework and Johjima's outstanding reputation as a receiver. Not every team has the courage to work with Victor Martinez or take Ryan Doumit seriously. (Christina Kahrl)|
|2008-05-05 12:30:00 (link to chat)||How do you see Jeff Clement doing in Seattle this season after his hot start in AAA?|
(abernethyj from Chapel Hill, NC)
|I just hope he sees some at-bats, given the mess of a lineup Seattle sometimes trots out. Also, as a participant in Normandin's fantasy league with Clement on my team, I pray he gets to that fifth game at catcher fast. But seriously, I think he could have a decent, not great season if he gets 300-400 ABs at DH. .270/.350/.450, or something like that. (Bryan Smith)|
|2008-04-25 15:00:00 (link to chat)||It is being reported that Seattle is going to extend Kenji Johjima for three more years despite his slow start (.200/.268/.246) and Jeff Clement raking in Tacoma (.375/.500/.688). What are your thoughts? Thanks.|
(jon from seattle)
|I am baffled in this day and age that we haven't come up with an emoticon that appropriately expresses one rolling his eyes back into his skull. If I had that weapon at my disposal, I'd deploy it here. (Jay Jaffe)|
|2008-05-01 13:00:00 (link to chat)||How many games will Jeff Clement see at catcher this year?|
(abernethyj from Chapel Hill, NC)
|Just enough to confirm that he's a first baseman or a DH. I'll say five games. (Joe Sheehan)|
|2008-03-26 12:00:00 (link to chat)||Bryan, i'm a huge fan......Do you believe Jeff Clement has the goods to become a top tier MLB player? And just how good is Jay Bruce?
(Ricky from Iowa)
|Thanks, Ricky. Depending on your definition of top tier player, yes, I think Clement can be that good. His power for a catcher could place him top 10 at that position, and that's top tier, to me. Bruce is the best player alive that will not open the season in the Major Leagues, and he's a more talented baseball player than a decent percentage of guys that managed to crack 25-man rosters. And nothing I wrote in that sentence is a hyperbole. (Bryan Smith)|
|2008-01-31 13:00:00 (link to chat)||What is a typical season you expect from c Jeff Clement this year and in future years?|
(HeathBP from AR)
|I think in his peak, he's an every day catcher with a .500-.550 slugging, which more than makes up for his average-to-slightly below defense. That's a very valuable commodity. (Kevin Goldstein)|
|2008-01-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)||5 Stars for Jeff Clement? Is this a position scarcity rating? Even if he sticks at catcher, his defense projects as adequate at best.|
(Grizz from Seattle)
|Position scarcity certainly plays a role. Start counting off every catching prospect in the majors who has a shot at developing into an average defender with 30+ home runs a year . . . that's why he's so valuable. (Kevin Goldstein)|
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A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC