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Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 79)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	87	Riggs Stephenson	1935	0	DNP
2	86	Moises Alou	2004	133
3	86	Bud Stewart	1953	120
4	85	Goose Goslin	1938	85
5	85	Coco Crisp	2017	0	DNP
6	85	Monte Irvin	1956	106
7	85	Yogi Berra	1962	87
8	85	Minnie Minoso	1963	90
9	85	Earle Combs	1936	0	DNP
10	85	Ken Griffey	1987	109
11	83	B.J. Surhoff	2002	93
12	83	Bobby Veach	1925	105
13	83	Raul Ibanez	2009	126
14	83	Rube Bressler	1932	78
15	83	Dave Roberts	2009	0	DNP
16	82	David Justice	2003	0	DNP
17	82	Lou Piniella	1981	117
18	82	Tim Raines	1997	120
19	81	Mark Kotsay	2013	72
20	81	Arky Vaughan	1949	0	DNP
21	81	Brian Jordan	2004	74
22	81	Carl Furillo	1959	83
23	81	Garret Anderson	2009	87
24	80	Mike Sweeney	2011	0	DNP
25	80	Bobby Bonilla	2000	98
26	80	Edd Roush	1930	0	DNP
27	80	Jayson Werth	2016	104
28	80	Juan Beniquez	1987	86
29	79	Eddie Brown	1929	0	DNP
30	79	Heinie Manush	1939	66
31	79	Paul O'Neill	2000	91
32	79	Randy Winn	2011	0	DNP
33	79	Matt Holliday	2017	97
34	79	Jose Cruz	1985	106
35	79	Ben Oglivie	1986	95
36	78	Bing Miller	1932	97
37	78	Elmer Valo	1958	83
38	78	Scott Rolen	2012	92
39	78	Kevin Millar	2009	93
40	78	Harry Hooper	1925	86
41	78	Bernie Williams	2006	96
42	78	Robin Yount	1993	92
43	78	Gary Redus	1994	85
44	78	Mark DeRosa	2012	74
45	77	Tino Martinez	2005	111
46	77	Chris Chambliss	1986	98
47	77	Taffy Wright	1949	83
48	77	Steve Finley	2002	122
49	77	Ryan Klesko	2008	0	DNP
50	77	Charlie Maxwell	1964	86
51	77	Rocky Nelson	1962	0	DNP
52	77	Mike Lowell	2011	0	DNP
53	77	Joel Youngblood	1989	87
54	77	Tony Oliva	1976	67
55	77	Joe Judge	1931	74
56	77	Harold Baines	1996	132
57	77	Bobby Thomson	1961	0	DNP
58	77	Denny Walling	1991	59
59	77	Del Pratt	1925	0	DNP
60	77	Sam Rice	1927	91
61	77	Bobby Murcer	1983	85
62	77	Enos Slaughter	1953	117
63	77	Lyle Overbay	2014	92
64	77	Ray Boone	1961	0	DNP
65	77	Ray Durham	2009	0	DNP
66	76	Charlie Jamieson	1930	77
67	76	Gene Woodling	1960	118
68	76	Max Carey	1927	88
69	76	Richie Hebner	1985	77
70	76	Felipe Alou	1972	108
71	76	Jesus Alou	1979	89
72	76	Melvin Mora	2009	89
73	76	Sal Bando	1981	90
74	76	Chuck Klein	1942	73
75	76	Sherm Lollar	1962	95
76	76	Rico Carty	1977	117
77	76	Michael Cuddyer	2016	0	DNP
78	76	Johnny Damon	2011	108
79	76	Dusty Baker	1986	93
80	76	Will Clark	2001	0	DNP
81	76	Frank McCormick	1948	87
82	76	Joe Kuhel	1943	95
83	76	Ryan Raburn	2018	0	DNP
84	76	Wally Joyner	1999	97
85	76	Joe Randa	2007	0	DNP
86	76	Don Money	1984	0	DNP
87	76	Jay Johnstone	1983	102
88	76	Adam Kennedy	2013	0	DNP
89	76	Jerry Hairston	2013	81
90	76	Bobby Abreu	2011	103
91	76	Chase Utley	2016	89
92	76	Curtis Granderson	2018	100
93	76	Andy Pafko	1958	86
94	76	Rich Aurilia	2009	62
95	76	Greg Norton	2010	0	DNP
96	76	Ted Kluszewski	1962	0	DNP
97	75	Eric Chavez	2015	0	DNP
98	75	Dixie Walker	1948	108
99	75	Rickey Henderson	1996	122
100	75	Ken Boyer	1968	104

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2018		To burn out, or to fade away: an eternal question of preference in demise. Unfortunately for Ethier's pursuit of Dodger franchise history, the issue was more or less settled outside of his hands (and more specifically in his tibial and lower-back regions). He has been an at-times sneaky generational player for the 21st-century Dodgers, a homegrown Hollywood pseudo-star bought out of late-prime free agency into careerist comfort. The injuries robbed him of likely top-ten standing in all-time games played for those donning Dodger Blue. But even a faded "Daddy" still dots the top 20 in most of the club's career counting stat leaderboards. Regardless of style, the demise is of course eventual, and a declined option in November means his career in Los Angeles has likely ended after an oh-so-close run at a ring.
2017		Ethier fractured his tibia in March and missed the majority of the season. Like a penguin returning home to find his mate had chosen another, he found himself frozen out of playing time by better options when he did make his way back to Chavez Ravine in September. Despite what can charitably be described as "mild production," Ethier was included on the postseason roster and made a last-ditch plea for his inclusion in any long-term plans, going 2-for-6 in postseason pinch-hitting appearances, including a home run. Long discussed in trade rumors, it's likely Ethier will see his name on the block once more, as the Dodgers carry significant depth in the outfield. After all, penguins are only monogamous during mating season... if that.
2016		It feels like the Dodgers have wanted to rid themselves of Ethier since the day he signed his ill-advised five-year, $85 million extension. They were glad to still have Ethier around last year, though, as the 33-year-old earned more WARP than any other Dodgers outfielder and had his best campaign since 2012. We're all aware that Ethier is an acutely flawed player who shouldn't ever be allowed to face a left-handed pitcher or position himself in center field, but the man hit .306/.383/.517 against righties and didn't embarrass himself with the glove in a corner in 2015. If this is more than just a dead-cat bounce, the Dodgers could use his stabilizing force in a lineup awash with inconsistent assets. Between the southpaw struggles that plague Ethier, Joc Pederson and the sentient remains of Carl Crawford, the Dodgers really, really need a right-handed platoon outfielder. Also: Ethier is still hella handsome.
2015		Few players have fallen as hard and fast as Ethier in recent years; Tim Lincecum comes to mind, but at least he has World Series rings to show for it. Ethier's days of being a full-time player might have come to an end with his dismal 2014 season that saw him post career lows in every offensive category that matters, plus a bunch you've never heard of. And this isn't a case where the superficial numbers belie underlying indicators that show a run of bad luck amid retained skills: Any in-depth investigation will reinforce rather than undermine the conclusion that Ethier is through. He might be the most expensive pinch-hitter in the history of baseball for the next four years.
2014		Ethier's 2013 season was eerily similar to his 2011, and his OPS has been perched at 20 percent above the league average for the past three seasons (despite a toxic reaction to lefties). L.A.'s outfield was overcrowded with expensive contracts to flawed players, but his ability to stay in the lineup does have significant value on a club that employs Carl Crawford and Matt Kemp. But his career is following a stereotypical arc, and the Dodgers are on the hook for at least $70 million to find out how he progresses through his thirties. He was miscast in center field during the playoffs, and his role on a championship-caliber club could be limited to that of a six-inning hitter neutralized by the first LOOGY out of the bullpen.
2013		Following an offseason cleanup of his right knee, Ethier bolted from the gate, hitting .324/.381/.569 through the end of May to help the Dodgers overcome the absence of Matt Kemp. Naturally, the team used this time to buy high, announcing Ethier's five-year, $85 million extension in early June. The right fielder's production regressed considerably the rest of the way, and as much as ever, he struggled against left-handed pitching (606 OPS) to the point of becoming a true liability; his 239 PA against southpaws were 52 more than in any other season. His defense declined as well, according to most major metrics. Relative to the likes of Crawford, Jayson Werth, and Matt Holliday, Ethier's deal is reasonable, but tying up an expensive and incomplete player on the wrong side of 30 is never a sound tactic. He needs a platoon partner, and badly.
2012		Ethier started the season red-hot (.380/.446/.556 in April), but while he maintained a high batting average through the All-Star break, his power eroded considerably. After a horrific stretch from the break into late August, he suggested to LA Times columnist T.J. Simers that the Dodgers were pushing him to play through a right knee injury. An organizational Donny-brook followed, as the manager described himself as "blindsided" by the allegation, and the GM took exception as well. Soon afterwards, Ethier underwent surgery; the knee should heal fine, but the relationship between player and team may be irreparably damaged as he approaches his walk year, and it would shock nobody if he arrived at a new address sometime in 2012. The Gold Glove was worth a chuckle, though most of the major systems suggest he was a shade above average after three years well below it.
2011		After emerging as a star in 2009, Ethier began the year as though bound for even more dizzying heights. He was hitting .392/.457/.744 through May 14, leading the league in both the Triple Crown and triple-slash stats, and looking like an MVP candidate when he fractured the pinkie of his right hand during batting practice. Though he missed just 15 games, he hit a mere .260/.335/.413 the rest of the way, bringing his rate stats right in line with 2009, hardly an embarrassment in the grand scheme, particularly given a top-15 finish in True Average. Ethier continues to struggle against lefties—.222/.299/.348 over the last three years, compared to .315/.392/.565 against righties. It's tough to conceptualize benching your most reliable hitter, but perhaps Don Mattingly will be more amenable to sitting him against southpaws than Joe Torre was.
2010		Ethier stepped forward into stardom in 2009, becoming the first Dodger reach 30 homers since 2004, leading the majors with six walk-off hits, and tying a major-league record previously held by Jimmie Foxx (1940) and Roy Sievers (1957) with his four walk-off homers. He set career highs in every important counting stat, but his rate stats were down from 2008 due to a .194/.283/.345 showing in 187 PA against lefties, compared to .302/.390/.571 against righties. Joe Torre did seem to notice, frequently dropping Ethier lower in the order against southpaws, but Ethier's split has been widening with increased playing time, encouraging platooning him. As with the possibility of Charlie Manuel benching Ryan Howard against the tougher lefties, such a move won't actually happen.
2009		Ethier got off to a hot start (.315/.400/.461 in April), but once he cooled down, he found himself as the odd man out in a crowded outfield, and brooded openly about playing time, something he’s been prone to do throughout his Dodger tenure. Through the end of July, he hit just .274/.338/.442, but Torre’s decision to play his best-hitting outfield in the wake of Manny Ramirez’s acquisition provided Ethier with some job security and he flourished, hitting a Manny-like .368/.448/.649 over the final two months and starting 33 of the team’s final 36 games, missing time only for the birth of his first child. In all, his performance nailed his 90th-percentile PECOTA projection, and while he’s now squarely in his prime, he’s going to have a tough time making an encore.
2008		A belated diagnosis of acromioclavicular joint inflammation and rotator cuff damage might excuse both the September slump that took the shine off Ethier's otherwise stellar rookie season and his slow start in 2007, but the reality is that his rookie line was propped up by an unsustainable .347 BABIP and the drop to a league-average .293 took a bite out of his production. Furthermore, his seemingly improved walk rate was inflated by 12 intentional passes, ten while batting seventh or eighth. As a corner outfielder, Ethier isn't a tremendous asset at his current level of production, something Ned Colletti will undoubtedly be reminded of as he shops Ethier in the wake of the Andruw Jones signing. Ethier's cheap and just entering his prime-not thrilling, but nice, as Mel Brooks would say.
2007		Despite winning the 2005 Texas League MVP, Ethier appeared to be a tweener--lacking the speed for center field or the power for a corner spot--an underwhelming return in the Milton Bradley-Antonio Perez trade. Then Ethier stepped into the left field breach upon being called up on May 1 and helped the stumbling Dodgers turn things around. He hit .324/.395/.577 in May while the team went 18-10, and carried a similarly torrid pace through August. He was still hitting .335/.376/.528 when Ned Colletti traded for Marlon Anderson, but, when Grady Little started mixing Anderson into the lineup, Ethier`s production went south. He sulked through a 2-for-34 slump, and, though Little excused him for mental exhaustion, Ethier publicly voiced concerns about his future with the team. Colletti reassured the youngster of his place in their plans, but the situation took the luster off an otherwise stellar rookie campaign. Ethier flat-out nailed his 90th percentile PECOTA projection (.306/.374/.474, .290 EqA); while his performance certainly raises the bar a bit, expecting a repeat would be asking a lot.
2006		The Dodgers hope that Ethier, the Arizona State product acquired for Milton Bradley, will be a late-bloomer after a power breakout in Midland last year. He runs better than his stolen base numbers indicate, but he is considered to have too weak an arm to play centerfield. His chance could come sooner rather than later, considering that Jose Cruz is the incumbent, but PECOTA thinks he`d be overmatched as a regular.

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