Portrait of Homer Bailey

Homer Bailey PReds

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2018 Projections (Rest of Season Projections - seasonal age 32)
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Birth Date5-3-1986
Height6' 4"
Weight223 lbs
Age31 years, 10 months, 19 days
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
2007 CIN MLB 9 9 45.3 4 2 0 43 28 28 3 .254 100 8.5 5.6 0.6 5.6 47% .280 .264 1.57 4.84 5.76 120 7.21 149.2 -0.7
2008 CIN MLB 8 8 36.3 0 6 0 59 17 18 8 .257 101 14.6 4.2 2.0 4.5 46% .372 .347 2.09 6.37 7.93 143 8.75 186.7 -1.3
2009 CIN MLB 20 20 113.3 8 5 0 115 52 86 12 .263 97 9.1 4.1 1.0 6.8 43% .300 .270 1.47 4.36 4.53 106 5.81 124.5 -0.3
2010 CIN MLB 19 19 109.0 4 3 0 109 40 100 11 .265 94 9.0 3.3 0.9 8.3 44% .315 .264 1.37 3.76 4.46 96 4.20 94.9 1.4
2011 CIN MLB 22 22 132.0 9 7 0 136 33 106 18 .254 104 9.3 2.2 1.2 7.2 41% .296 .258 1.28 4.02 4.43 102 4.50 104.5 0.9
2012 CIN MLB 33 33 208.0 13 10 0 206 52 168 26 .256 99 8.9 2.2 1.1 7.3 46% .290 .260 1.24 4.00 3.68 102 4.62 105.9 1.3
2013 CIN MLB 32 32 209.0 11 12 0 181 54 199 20 .257 102 7.8 2.3 0.9 8.6 48% .284 .237 1.12 3.28 3.49 87 2.99 71.5 5.0
2014 CIN MLB 23 23 145.7 9 5 0 134 45 124 16 .257 98 8.3 2.8 1.0 7.7 52% .286 .258 1.23 3.89 3.71 99 3.60 88.3 2.2
2015 CIN MLB 2 2 11.3 0 1 0 16 4 3 3 .246 101 12.7 3.2 2.4 2.4 59% .317 .331 1.76 7.13 5.56 109 6.44 150.6 -0.2
2016 CIN MLB 6 6 23.0 2 3 0 35 7 27 2 .259 98 13.7 2.7 0.8 10.6 47% .452 .303 1.83 3.13 6.65 93 5.23 115.7 0.0
2017 CIN MLB 18 18 91.0 6 9 0 112 42 67 11 .268 99 11.1 4.2 1.1 6.6 46% .346 .301 1.69 4.92 6.43 113 7.72 164.2 -2.2

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
2005 DYT A 28 21 103.7 8 4 0 89 62 125 5 .265 21 7.7 5.4 0.4 10.8 49% .319 .226 1.46 3.55 4.43 0 0.00 0.0
2006 SAR A+ 13 13 70.2 3 5 0 49 22 79 6 .257 90 6.3 2.8 0.8 10.1 43% .238 .194 1.01 3.26 3.33 67 0.00 0.0
2006 CHT AA 13 13 68.1 7 1 0 50 28 77 1 .000 6.6 3.7 0.1 10.2 0% .290 .000 1.15 2.22 1.59 0 0.00 0.0
2007 CIN MLB 9 9 45.3 4 2 0 43 28 28 3 .254 100 8.5 5.6 0.6 5.6 47% .280 .264 1.57 4.84 5.76 120 7.21 149.2
2007 SAR A+ 2 2 8.0 0 1 0 15 5 7 2 .263 103 16.9 5.6 2.2 7.9 19% .433 .399 2.50 6.68 10.12 128 11.85 132.9
2007 LOU AAA 12 12 67.3 6 3 0 49 32 59 4 .255 99 6.6 4.3 0.5 7.9 46% .256 .221 1.20 3.61 3.08 98 5.50 109.6
2008 CIN MLB 8 8 36.3 0 6 0 59 17 18 8 .257 101 14.6 4.2 2.0 4.5 46% .372 .347 2.09 6.37 7.93 143 8.75 186.7
2008 LOU AAA 19 19 111.3 4 7 0 118 46 96 10 .267 92 9.5 3.7 0.8 7.8 47% .316 .264 1.47 4.08 4.77 95 4.27 101.3
2009 CIN MLB 20 20 113.3 8 5 0 115 52 86 12 .263 97 9.1 4.1 1.0 6.8 43% .300 .270 1.47 4.36 4.53 106 5.81 124.5
2009 LOU AAA 14 14 89.7 8 5 0 87 27 82 10 .246 113 8.7 2.7 1.0 8.2 46% .301 .233 1.27 3.80 2.71 80 2.79 86.9
2010 CIN MLB 19 19 109.0 4 3 0 109 40 100 11 .265 94 9.0 3.3 0.9 8.3 44% .315 .264 1.37 3.76 4.46 96 4.20 94.9
2010 DYT A 1 1 4.0 0 1 0 4 1 5 0 .268 98 9.0 2.2 0.0 11.2 36% .364 .217 1.25 1.85 6.75 96 3.82 97.8
2010 LOU AAA 4 3 19.0 2 0 0 15 5 15 0 .254 98 7.1 2.4 0.0 7.1 45% .283 .176 1.05 2.65 2.37 97 3.82 95.6
2011 CIN MLB 22 22 132.0 9 7 0 136 33 106 18 .254 104 9.3 2.2 1.2 7.2 41% .296 .258 1.28 4.02 4.43 102 4.50 104.5
2011 LOU AAA 6 6 30.0 2 1 0 34 6 22 1 .254 90 10.2 1.8 0.3 6.6 37% .333 .230 1.33 2.80 3.00 102 3.58 95.3
2012 CIN MLB 33 33 208.0 13 10 0 206 52 168 26 .256 99 8.9 2.2 1.1 7.3 46% .290 .260 1.24 4.00 3.68 102 4.62 105.9
2013 CIN MLB 32 32 209.0 11 12 0 181 54 199 20 .257 102 7.8 2.3 0.9 8.6 48% .284 .237 1.12 3.28 3.49 87 2.99 71.5
2014 CIN MLB 23 23 145.7 9 5 0 134 45 124 16 .257 98 8.3 2.8 1.0 7.7 52% .286 .258 1.23 3.89 3.71 99 3.60 88.3
2015 CIN MLB 2 2 11.3 0 1 0 16 4 3 3 .246 101 12.7 3.2 2.4 2.4 59% .317 .331 1.76 7.13 5.56 109 6.44 150.6
2015 LOU AAA 1 1 5.7 0 1 0 5 2 3 0 .243 98 7.9 3.2 0.0 4.8 47% .263 .312 1.24 3.68 4.76 105 5.57 111.9
2016 CIN MLB 6 6 23.0 2 3 0 35 7 27 2 .259 98 13.7 2.7 0.8 10.6 47% .452 .303 1.83 3.13 6.65 93 5.23 115.7
2016 PEN AA 1 1 4.0 0 1 0 6 2 3 0 .282 86 13.5 4.5 0.0 6.8 72% .333 .388 2.00 4.06 2.25 105 5.49 112.8
2016 LOU AAA 7 7 24.0 1 2 0 31 9 19 7 .252 99 11.6 3.4 2.6 7.1 54% .312 .324 1.67 6.62 5.62 105 4.87 107.0
2017 CIN MLB 18 18 91.0 6 9 0 112 42 67 11 .268 99 11.1 4.2 1.1 6.6 46% .346 .301 1.69 4.92 6.43 113 7.72 164.2
2017 DYT A 1 1 6.0 1 0 0 1 0 6 0 .238 104 1.5 0.0 0.0 9.0 54% .077 .085 0.17 1.99 0.00 85 2.77 61.3
2017 PEN AA 1 1 5.0 1 0 0 3 1 5 0 .267 102 5.4 1.8 0.0 9.0 45% .273 .161 0.80 1.71 0.00 94 4.02 98.6
2017 LOU AAA 1 1 5.7 1 0 0 7 2 6 1 .245 107 11.1 3.2 1.6 9.5 53% .375 .269 1.59 4.56 3.18 99 4.79 109.3

Plate Discipline

2008 677 0.4830 0.4727 0.8813 0.6667 0.2914 0.9450 0.7451 0.1188
2009 1986 0.5111 0.4491 0.8184 0.6315 0.2585 0.8736 0.6773 0.1816
2010 1908 0.5131 0.4706 0.8073 0.6486 0.2831 0.8598 0.6806 0.1927
2011 2095 0.4950 0.4754 0.7841 0.6480 0.3062 0.8705 0.6049 0.2159
2012 3318 0.4855 0.4783 0.7851 0.6543 0.3122 0.8729 0.6116 0.2149
2013 3280 0.4674 0.4780 0.7519 0.6341 0.3412 0.8488 0.5940 0.2481
2014 2260 0.4611 0.4690 0.7509 0.6420 0.3210 0.8445 0.5908 0.2491
2015 163 0.3865 0.4785 0.8205 0.7143 0.3300 0.8222 0.8182 0.1795
2016 458 0.4301 0.4607 0.7867 0.6548 0.3142 0.8760 0.6463 0.2133
2017 1577 0.4889 0.4610 0.7785 0.6472 0.2829 0.8557 0.6096 0.2215

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-09-05 2014-09-05 On-Alr 0 0 Right Elbow Surgery Flexor Mass Tendon 2014-09-05
2014-08-08 2014-09-29 60-DL 52 47 - Neck Cartilage Injury Bulging Disk -
2014-07-11 2014-07-22 DTD 11 7 Right Knee Tendonitis Patellar Tendonitis -
2014-03-11 2014-03-31 Camp 20 0 Right Groin Strain - -
2011-05-27 2011-06-26 15-DL 30 27 Right Shoulder Sprain Posterior Capsule While Hitting -
2011-03-24 2011-05-05 15-DL 42 30 Right Shoulder Impingement -
2010-09-20 2010-09-20 DTD 0 0 General Medical Dizziness -
2010-05-24 2010-08-15 15-DL 83 73 Right Shoulder Inflammation -
2009-08-13 2009-08-18 DTD 5 4 Right Foot Contusion Batted Ball -
2008-08-24 2008-09-03 Minors 10 0 Right Knee Sprain MCL -
2007-07-18 2007-08-23 Minors 36 0 Right Groin Strain Moderate -
2007-05-13 2007-05-22 Minors 9 0 Groin Strain -


Year Team Salary
2020 CIN $5,000,000
2019 CIN $23,000,000
2018 CIN $21,000,000
2017 CIN $19,000,000
2016 CIN $18,000,000
2015 CIN $10,000,000
2014 CIN $9,000,000
2013 CIN $5,350,000
2012 CIN $2,425,000
2011 CIN $441,000
2010 CIN $418,000
8 yrPrevious$64,634,000
9 yrPvs + Cur$85,634,000
2 yrFuture$28,000,000
11 yrTotal$113,634,000


Service TimeAgentContract Status
9 y 17 dExcel Sports6 years/$105M (2014-19), 2020 option

  • 6 years/$105M (2014-19), plus 2020 option. Signed extension with Cincinnati 2/19/14 (avoided arbitration, $11.6M-$8.7M). 14:$9M, 15:$10M, 16:$18M, 17:$19M, 18:$21M, 19:$23M, 20:$25M mutual option, $5M buyout. In-season payments: 14:$3M, 15:$4M, 16:$11M, 17:$12M, 18:$14M, 19:$15M, with balance of each annual salary deferred until each November. If traded, annual salaries are to be paid in full in-season.
  • 1 year/$5.35M (2013). Re-signed by Cincinnati 2/16/13 (avoided arbitration, $5.8M-$4.75M).
  • 1 year/$2.425M (2012). Re-signed by Cincinnati 1/17/12 (avoided arbitration). May earn additional $75,000 in performance bonuses.
  • 1 year/$0.441M (2011). Re-signed by Cincinnati 3/11.
  • 1 year/$0.418M (2010). Re-signed by Cincinnati 3/10.
  • 1 year/$0.4005M (2009). Re-signed by Cincinnati 3/2/09.
  • 1 year (2008). Re-signed by Cincinnati 2/29/08.
  • 1 year (2007). Contract purchased by Cincinnati 6/8/07.
  • Drafted by Cincinnati 2004 (1-7) (LaGrange HS, Texas). $2.3M signing bonus.

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10 vs L (Multi) .312 .372 .452 .301
11 vs R (Multi) .246 .298 .375 .243
18 Split (Multi) .066 .074 .077 .058
19 LgAvg (Multi) .006 .020 .015 .013
30 vs L (2016) .429 .468 .500 .358
31 vs R (2016) .293 .344 .362 .263
38 Split (2016) .135 .124 .138 .096
39 LgAvg (2016) .003 .018 .013 .012

Definition of multi-year splits

BP Annual Player Comments

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BP Articles

Click here to see articles tagged with Homer Bailey

BP Chats

2017-11-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)The Reds have 14 or so guys vying for a rotation spot, none outside Homer Bailey, Luis Castillo and maybe Tyler Mahle seem worth getting excited about. Who do the Reds finally decide is better suited shoring up their awful bullpen and move from the rotation in 2018? Some names to consider: Amir Garrett, Robert Stephenson, Brandon Finnegan, Cody Reed, Rookie Davis, Jon Moscot, Jackson Stephens, Tim Adleman, Sal Romano, Keury Mella.
(matzabal from CO)
I don't know that a lot of those guys will be great bullpen arms either (Tim Adleman is still around, eh? Good for him). Garrett, Romano, Stephenson, and Finnegan are the obvious ones here, and the guys most likely to have a real impact in the pen. Also are we still excited about Homer Bailey? I will defer to actual Reds fans on this, but I am...not. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2016-08-24 20:00:00 (link to chat)Two parter: Best first name in baeball that isn't a players real name / Best player that doesn't go by his real name? Rookie Davis? Homer Bailey? I know you can do better.
(Truganini from CO)
Not sure how this is a two-parter. It seems lie this is one question: the best first name in baseball that isn't the player's given name (assuming that, say, a player named Matthew going by Matt doesn't count).

With that in mind, I'd go with Coco (Covelli) Crisp. I'm open to other suggestions. (Scooter Hotz)
2014-07-03 19:00:00 (link to chat)Redraft keeper league, 12 teams, h2h, $280 budget, 25 players. I'm pushing for playoffs and have Matt Harvey for $3 sitting on the DL (max inflation is $5). I could use some more pitching or outfield help, but I don't want to just hand him away. What types of players should I be targeting? I've been offered Homer Bailey for him, but have been hesitant to pull the trigger, despite my secret/not-secret love for Bailey.
(Steve from Los Angeles)
You can do better than Bailey. I'm still targeting a top 50 overall guy (prospects included). Springer, Yellich, Jordan Zimmerman if you're into it. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-06-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who are some good buy lows/sell highs right now?
(The Dude from Office)
That's really difficult bc no one is falling for, say Chisenhall for Chris Davis. I think you could realistically sell high on Jose Abreu. I think you can get a discount on Homer Bailey, David Price, Bartolo Colon, and Zack Wheeler. And of course Verlander, too, but that one is a bit riskier. (Paul Sporer)
2014-05-29 19:30:00 (link to chat)I want to acquire Homer Bailey. I think Heyward is too much to offer. Am I wrong? Also is Wil Myers a better offer? Is Adam Eaton too low for Homer?
(Chris from Baltimore)
I wouldn't trade Myers or Heyward for Bailey. Eaton is probably too low, but you can try. You're missing a tier in between these options that would be more fair. (Ben Carsley)
2014-05-29 19:30:00 (link to chat)About two weeks I traded Starlin Castro straight up for Homer Bailey in a keeper league, r8
(Hugh Jass from Butte)
I think you lost that trade. Sorry Mr. Jass. (Ben Carsley)
2014-05-07 17:00:00 (link to chat)What are you views on Heyward? 12 team roto dynasty standard 5x5, would you move him and Bailey for Donaldson? What level of player would you want included on the Donaldson side? Already have Lawrie and ARam on the roster. Would try to move Lawrie for some SV's help. Would fill in Heyward's spot with Moss against RHPs and when Moss faces LHPs Revere.
(Geronimo from Big City Crush)
I'm not as high on Jason Heyward as others, but I think that he's a solid outfielder with mid $20s earning potential. With that in mind, I'd pass on Heyward and Homer Bailey for Josh Donaldson. Donaldson might be a little bit better than he was last year but it seems that you're selling low on Bailey. In a two-for-one, I'd want at least a third-tier pitcher back to make that deal.

Sure, you can move Brett Lawrie for a closer. I'd try for right below the elite (Greg Holland/Craig Kimbrel) level. (Mike Gianella)
2014-05-07 17:00:00 (link to chat)I know it's early (and even earlier for him), but are you concerned at all with Cole Hamels? Normally I wouldn't be, but he did start the year with shoulder tendinitis. In a re-draft would be looking to trade him for someone like Homer Bailey?
(Shawnykid23 from CT)
Yes, I'm a little concerned. I don't know if his injury is lingering or not, but he looks kind of rusty to me. Hamels for Bailey is fair; I might try to aim a little higher (sell someone on Hamels' high K rate in his last start). (Mike Gianella)
2014-05-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)I'm trying to have patience with Homer Bailey but it is becoming tough. I recently acquired Julio Teheran and Jordan Zimmerman through trades hoping to use Bailey as trade bait to upgrade my 3B slot which Bogaerts currently occupies. What 3B would you target?...I'm in need of speed, runs and RBIs.
(cruisinkc from Wisco)
Depends what you need, but I'd try something in the Matt Carpenter / Kyle Seager class. Bailey has been maddening, but the skills are still there. If you're shutout of anyone doing anything worth a lick right, go straight for the buy-low for buy-low move and ask for Carlos Santana or Brett Lawrie (Paul Sporer)
2014-05-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)Paul, What is going on with Homer Bailey. Is he worth a buy low or is there a reason to be concerned?
(Kent from Detroit)
I'm still buying low right now. I'm frustrated, but we saw three nice ones before the last dud at Philly. I'm convinced he'll still be fine. (Paul Sporer)
2014-03-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)There are a lot of mixed opinions on Homer Bailey. Some say he's reached his ceiling and we should expect production similar to last year's for at least the duration of his prime. Others say that he can be even more, as scouts placed an "ace" ceiling on him as a prospect, and his peripherals are good enough that improvement is possible. Which camp would you be in? More of the same going forward or a chance to improve even more? Thanks!
(treynay3 from Purdue)
he's improved a lot over the past couple years, his makeup seems to be top notch. Ace? No. I'm a Homer fan but I think what we saw his his norm not some step on the ladder. He could be a solid 2/3 type for a while. (Harry Pavlidis)
2014-03-14 09:00:00 (link to chat)Made a bit of a blockbuster in a 10-team dynasty league. Traded Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth, David Robertson, Glen Perkins, Zach Greinke, plus prospects (farm roster) Joey Gallo and Eddie Butler. Got back Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, Homer Bailey, and prospects Xander Bogaerts and Billy Hamilton. I like the trade for me as I can play Xander and Billy right away, but I have my concerns over Harper breaking out. What do you think?
(Sara from Tacoma)
Hi Sara:

Wow, that is a blockbuster! In a league that size, I like that trade for you in the here and now. You got four potential impact players and a strong pitcher in Bailey for two potential impact guys in Harper and Werth with two closers and Greinke. A lot depends on what happens with Gallo and Butler, but if you're playing for this year (and flags fly forever, as we like to say around here) you did well. (Mike Gianella)
2014-02-26 19:00:00 (link to chat)Homer Bailey has gotten better every year, does he step it up more this year and have a career year?
(Sumner from The beach)
I think Homer Bailey's 2013 was pretty damn good and if he repeats that production it will be a win. Breakout potential is there considering the pedigree but I'll take 2013 Homer Bailey. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-02-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thanks for the chat, I love reading your work. How would you rank these pitchers just for this year: Anibal Sanchez, Mat Latos, Mike Minor, Matt Moore, Homer Bailey, Tanaka and Alex Cobb?
(oscarbluth from Madison, WI)
[Sanchez, Latos, Bailey, Cobb], [Moore, Minor, Tanaka] (Paul Sporer)
2014-02-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)Just for 2014, how would you rank Anibal Sanchez, Latos, Tanaka, Minor, Matt Moore, Alex Cobb and Homer Bailey?
(oscarbluth from Madison, WI)
I think this was a double question (Paul Sporer)
2014-02-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)I'm in a shallow mixed keeper league. We each keep 8 players. My last choice is either Pedro Alvarez as my starting 3B or Homer Bailey as my SP3?
(Dale from GA)
That's close. If you think 3B will be dried up, go Alvarez. I love Bailey, but pitching should be deep in a shallow league. (Paul Sporer)
2014-01-29 19:00:00 (link to chat)Dynasty points league: I give Profar, Homer Bailey, Wisler for Tulo. I'm the one offering it; is it fair and should I do it? I have no SS and Kipnis, Kinsler, Carpenter at 2B.
(doog7642 from Blaine, MN)
I would hang on to your package. Bailey is better then people give him credit for and Profar could be producing similarly to Tulo by 2016. Again, if you're really hell-bent on going for it all in 2014, my answer could change. (Ben Carsley)
2014-01-21 18:00:00 (link to chat)Do you think Homer Bailey is a top 20 SP heading into this season?
(James from Boston)
Hi James

I think Bailey is on the cusp of the top 20 but not quite there for me. (Mike Gianella)
2014-01-21 18:00:00 (link to chat)Do you think Homer Bailey can be a top 20 SP next season?
(James from Boston)
I thought I answered this already but the chat room is being wonky. Bailey for me is just outside of my Top 20. (Mike Gianella)
2014-01-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Dynasty team in contending position this year. Homer Bailey or Shelby Miller? Weird playoff absence and whispers of injury re: Shelby make me nervous for 2014 though he's seemingly the obvious long-term choice of the two. Thanks!
(Rob from Alaska)
Bailey easily even without paying mind to the playoff stuff with Miller. (Paul Sporer)
2014-01-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)How do you see the short and long range future of Homer Bailey? Do you see continued development or consolidation at his existing level...
(caseyj15 from Homer Bailey)
I think we can definitely see even more improvement to where he has a run of low-3.00s seasons. I see nothing fluky about his 2013 season and believe he could live at that level for a few years. (Paul Sporer)
2014-01-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)Will Robert Stephenson arrive in enough time to lessen the impact of Homer Bailey's free-agent departure?
(Rated Rookie from Atlanta)
Stephenson's an outstanding prospect and he could arrive very quickly. I think they'd be wise to make the entire 2014 season a developmental year and then give him a shot in 2015. (Mark Anderson)
2014-01-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)How do you see the career of Homer Bailey and Andy Cashner over the next 5 years?
(Caseyj15 from Medford, OR)
If you mean who I prefer, I'll take Bailey. I have concerns on Cashner logging the necessary innings. (Craig Goldstein)
2013-07-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)Better second half: Edwin Jackson or Homer Bailey?
(Scarface from Little Havana)
A LOT closer than most think, but Bailey has the better skills and team so I'm still leaning toward him. (Paul Sporer)
2013-06-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)Can you name a non-ace or two in the NL whom you expect to be better in the second half?
(Jason from Not leaving yet)
Better meaning they've pitched and failed. Lance Lynn, Jeff Samardzija, Homer Bailey, Edwin Jackson, Dillon Gee (already surging), Brandon McCarthy & Ryan Vogelsong when healthy, and keep an eye on Tom Koehler who is throwing tonight. (Paul Sporer)
2013-04-16 20:00:00 (link to chat)Was Homer Bailey's disastrous last outing an aberration?
(Alex from Anaheim)
Yes. I still believe and it's going to take more than one start (or a handful of them) to convince me otherwise. (Bret Sayre)
2013-04-16 20:00:00 (link to chat)What do u do with segura when hanley comes back whats a pitxher i can go after?
(Dhale243 from San diego)
If he's playing well at that point, you can target a solid starter who's off to a bit of a slow start. Possibly a Homer Bailey or C.J. Wilson - just keep your eyes open as to who needs MI help in your league. (Bret Sayre)
2013-03-20 11:00:00 (link to chat)in a 20teams 5SP slots league where QS is a factor, am I shaky going into season w/ Homer Bailey, Matt Harvey, Kris Medlen, Andy Pettitte and Rick Porcello as rotation?
(Jim from Seattle)
Yes. (Cory Schwartz)
2013-03-20 11:00:00 (link to chat)In my deep 16 team H2H dynasty league. I have a pitching staff of Homer Bailey, Wandy Rodriguez, Mark Buerhle, Ricky Romero, and Edison Volquez. Will this rotation be problematic? Even given the size of the league?
(Brent from California)
Yeah, you've got some issues here... you're at least one front-line starter short. Doesn't need to be a Verlander or Kershaw, but even a Cueto or Kennedy or Shields type would be a big help. (Cory Schwartz)
2013-03-06 20:00:00 (link to chat)In a 4x4 NL only league where K's don't count, is there anyone in the upper middle class ($10-$14) of SP who you especially bump up or down? Names like Tim Hudson, Jeff Samardzija, Josh Beckett, Homer Bailey, Trevor Cahill?
(Scott from LA)
Samardzija gets a lot of his value from his strikeouts, but Cahill and Bailey are two guys I'd give a small bump up to. (Paul Singman)
2013-03-01 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Doug, thanks for the chat. You mentioned Jordan Zimmermann and Jarrod Parker as the breakout candidates. What do you think of Matt Harvey and Kris Medlen? Their 2012 season primed in the second half, do you see sustainable success? Please also include Homer Bailey in the conversation if you can.
(Mounting Point from Fantasyland)
Huge fan of Harvey. His mechanics are very advanced, with solid grades across the board, and his stuff is beyond legit. I probably should have mentioned him among the breakout guys.

Medlen has a strong delivery that he repeats exceedingly well, though I can't call him a breakout candidate, for the simple reason that I can't imagine him doing better in 2013 than what he showed us while he was on the mound in 2012. He does have some minor inefficiencies with torque and posture that could be improved, but he just has to regress, right? (Doug Thorburn)
2012-12-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thanks for the chat today. Anyway the Reds could package a deal starting with Drew Stubbs and Homer Bailey / Mike Leake for something involving either Dexter Fowler or Jacoby Ellsbury? If not, what else would they need to include?
(Tommy from Flowmont)
I know that Fowler and Ellsbury have both been dangled, but I'm not sure what kind of return each team is looking for. Personally I'm not a Fowler fan -- his approach at the plate is a total disaster, and he either hasn't been able or willing to make adjustments. Still not sure what kind of player Ellsbury is long-term, so if I'm a GM, i'm reticent to make a move for him.

Also, I still believe in Stubbs and wouldn't necessarily want to sell low on him. I always worry about trading big-league starters, too. You can never have enough pitching! (Ian Miller)
2012-12-04 14:00:00 (link to chat)Early predictions: which Starting Pitchers do you feel make for some good fantasy sleepers next year? Thanks for the chat.
(Paul from St. Louis)
You're welcome, Paul; thank you for stopping by. I'll toss a few names out there off the top of my head: Chris Archer (if he lands a spot in the Rays rotation), Brett Anderson, Mike Minor, and Homer Bailey. (Daniel Rathman)
2012-08-27 14:00:00 (link to chat)Is Homer Bailey good enough next year or he peaked?
(Chillie from Cincinnati)
Nope, I think Bailey will be at least as good as he's been this year and still even has a little upside on top. (Derek Carty)
2012-08-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Which Homer Bailey do you expect the rest of the way? Inconsistent, dominate, or hammered?
(Bet on Petey from Plead the 5th)
Bailey has had some rough starts lately, but overall, he's been more consistently good this season than before; at least if you use quality start rate. He's at 68 percent this season, as opposed to 44 percent entering this season. (R.J. Anderson)
2012-03-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)Homer Bailey - does he finally reach his potential this year? If not, is this the end of his run in Cincinnati?
(The Potential from Cincy)
I like Bailey this year. The presence of Chapman the Starter is a little worrisome for his 2012 prospects, but as long as he starts with a rotation spot, I expect him to do well enough to keep it with an ERA around 4.00. (Derek Carty)
2011-01-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)Your thoughts on Homer Bailey? For the second year in a row he's come up big at the end of the season. Is he ready to carry the improvement through an entire season?
(johnklein from Northeast)
He was another player I expected to break out in 2010, but the Reds had roughly 13 capable starting pitchers, and Bailey got squeezed out often. I think he's much better than his 2010 ERA indicates, and I'm willing to bet on that if I get the chance to acquire him for my own teams. (Marc Normandin)
2010-12-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Homer Bailey, Travis Wood, Mike Leake, Matt Maloney, Sam LeCure, Aroldis Chapman. That's 9 guys for 5 rotation spots in Cincinnati. How can Jocketty best capitalize on that depth?
(RMR from Chicago)
A few of the brighter bulbs 'round these parts (where there isn't much call for cheddar, by the way)have made a few suggestions. IIRC, SG recommended they trade Volquez, while CK opted for shipping out Maloney, I think. Me, I'd find out what sort of a market there is for Mike Leake -- maybe he's already at his peak trade value. It's really, really hard to predict trades that actually get made, because you almost always look like you're way over- or under-valuing someone in retrospect. That being said, sitting on all that pitching is like sitting on a pot of gold, and Jocketty is sure to be a very popular man next week. (Ken Funck)
2010-08-17 14:45:00 (link to chat)Let's pretend the Reds make the playoffs. How do you line up the rotation? Cueto & Arroyo seem like the only locks at this point.
(Rick from Chicago)
Hmm, that's a tough one. Cueto is your Game 1 starter, followed by Arroyo. After that, I would probably roll the dice with Volquez and try to use those three as a three-man rotation. Assuming Leake has an innings limit, he will likely be close to maxed out come playoff-time, and I'm not trusting Homer Bailey or Travis Wood with a playoff game. (Eric Seidman)
2010-08-17 14:45:00 (link to chat)Given Jordan Lyles's success this year, do you think he figures into the Houston rotation next year?
(Lyles from Houston)
Well, if Brian Moehler has figured into their rotations recently, I don't see why not. Let him pitch in spring training, and take it from there. Maybe he isn't in the rotation at the onset of the season but he could be there by the summer. The Astros finally seem to understand what they need to do, and keeping someone that could develop more at the major league level, in the minors, is not progressive or helpful to the organization. Then again, he should be close to ready -- we don't want another Homer Bailey situation. (Eric Seidman)
2010-05-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Marc ... this may be more of a Goldstein question, but the demotion of Alex Gordon got me thinking. Which current AAA player has had his career screwed up the most by his organization (more than his own performance)?
(dianagramr from NYC)
Homer Bailey, possibly? He was never ready for the big leagues any of the times he was called up, but that didn't stop the Reds from using him to plug holes over and over again. Anyone else have any ideas? (Marc Normandin)
2010-02-18 14:00:00 (link to chat)Post-hype prospect showdown. Better year in 2010: Homer Bailey or Cameron Maybin?
(holgado from pelham, ny)
Bailey. (Kevin Goldstein)
2010-02-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hi Marc, do you have a strong gut feeling about any of these guys?: Buchholz, Brett Anderson, Dice-K, Scott Baker, Matusz, Wade Davis, Ricky Romero, Justin Masterson, Homer Bailey. Let's assume Tommy Hanson was gone several rounds ago. Please help or my entire pitching staff will be sleepers!
(robertcfox from DC)
Brett Anderson and Clay Buchholz would be the two I suggest to you. Buchholz showed some positive growth in 2009 that I'm excited to see in 2010, and Brett Anderson is a future beast. (Marc Normandin)
2010-02-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)What are your expectations of Homer Bailey this season? Will he build on hsi success from late 2009?
(Brandon from Charleston, WV)
I expect him to build on his nice late-season showing (though one has to allow for the fact that it was September) and become a competent major league starting pitcher with occasional stretches which remind us why he was so highly touted.

And probably a trip to the DL unless the Reds can fake Dusty Baker into boarding a flight for Uzbekistan or Antarctica. (Jay Jaffe)
2009-11-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on Homer Bailey turning a corner at the end of the year?
(Scott from Greenville, SC)
It was against a really weak group of opponents. He's been mishandled, and if left alone, you're looking at an erratic league-average starter. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-10-23 16:00:00 (link to chat)Is there any hope for Samardizja as a starter or are the Cubs best served by using him as a two-pitch short reliever? I know his peripherals have been poor despite a powerful arm( upper 90's).
(Matt from Chicago)
Things looked much better last season, when he threw mid-90s heat, induced 45% grounders and had a high strikeout rate. This year, the grounders and flyballs were virtually equivalent and the strikeout rate dropped precipitously. You have to give him a chance to fail, though. The Cubs should not simply make him a reliever if he has the chops to potentially start. Just like with Homer Bailey, a few outings are not enough to base a decision on someone's future. Let Samardzija feel like he's a starter, in the rotation at the outset of the season, and if he cannot cut the muster, reevaluate the decision (not automatically change it), but when you draft guys like him it's in the hope that he becomes the next big SP, not the next 7th inning righty. (Eric Seidman)
2009-09-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)Thoughts on Homer Bailey? Seems to be finding something of late.
(jromero from seattle)
The generic response with Bailey has always been that he needed a change of scenery. I always felt he needed a longer leash in the big leagues. You cannot bring someone up for 3 starts and then get rid of him if he struggles. Anything can happen in brief spurts. It might not be that hes finding something of late as much as that he actually has some job security. (Eric Seidman)
2009-07-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hi John, what is your take on Homer Bailey? Has he finally figured things out or is this just an illusion?
(sbryk7 from Brooklyn, NY)
You know, he's a tough guy to figure. I'd like to think he's figured things out but my instincts tell me he's one of those guys who, for whatever reason, won't really turn the corner until he changes organizations. Again, no solid reason why I feel that way, just gut instinct. (John Perrotto)
2009-05-07 14:00:00 (link to chat)Do you believe Homer Bailey has turned a corner and is a premiere pitching prospect again?
(Rob from Dallas)
I believe he has turned a corner. Premiere? I"m not so sure, but I think he's got a career in front of him at least. (Kevin Goldstein)
2009-05-04 14:00:00 (link to chat)Bigger ceiling: Clay Buchholz or Homer Bailey?
(Rob from Dallas)

Man, I should do all my chats like this. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-04-08 15:00:00 (link to chat)Party like it is 2006/2007... which will finally turn the prospect corner this year? Homer Bailey, Edwin Jackson, or neither?
(Greg from Toledo, Ohio)
I'd bet both before I bet neither, but I already put some big chips on Jackson as part of the Tigers Top 11 prospect, so go with that. (Kevin Goldstein)
2009-01-26 14:00:00 (link to chat)What happened to Homer Bailey?
(Scott from Greenville, SC)
If you figure that out, the general, publicly listed phone number for the Reds is 513-765-7000. To Ian from Detroit: I can't answer your question for obvious reasons, but thanks for the laugh and I hope things work out for you. (Kevin Goldstein)
2008-12-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)How would you help Homer Bailey's mechanics? Do you agree they are terrible?
(deberly from Cincinnati)
They're not good, but I've never thought his mechanics were a big issue. I'm coming more and more to the idea that mechanics are an issue for youth pitchers, maybe college, because by the time they get to the pros, they're pretty much locked in besides small tweaks. Maybe you can "Roy Halladay" someone, but that's really it. Bailey's coachability and desire have been the issues I've always heard about, all the way back to HS. I think you could change his ball release and get him to pronate. Bailey's one of the guys I look forward to being able to talk to in Cincinnati. How many questions about pronation do you think he's heard from the press? :) (Will Carroll)
2008-12-04 13:30:00 (link to chat)Why are the Twins so willing to unload Delmon Young after only one season? Follow-up: what's the trade value for him--someone like Homer Bailey, or more like Matt Cain (or Matt Garza)?
(Scott from Detroit)
Argh. Got a call and lost my answer to this...his value is between them, but if the Twins trade for a pitcher, Smith should be fired. Sand to the beach, and all that. (Joe Sheehan)
2008-10-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)With quality young talent like Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Joey Votto, and others, do you think the Reds are close to contending?
(smitty25039 from Charleston)
If you haven't already, check out Kevin Goldstein's article on which teams might be the "next Rays" in the NL.
The Reds are close, but as Goldstein says, the outlook is "semi-bright, but not perfect." One big problem is the outfield corners; they've got nobody now without Dunn, and it doesn't look like minor league center fielder Drew Stubbs is quite ready to make enough impact with the bat to move Jay Bruce to a corner. According to Goldstein, Cincinnati is also pretty weak in pitching prospects beyond the group that already hit the majors this season, and the 2008 results from Homer Bailey were discouraging. Still, Cueto and Volquez are a fantastic young duo, and I'm pretty high on Ramon Ramirez, too, who pitched well in September and has a nasty changeup. Not in 2009, but by 2010 they could be fighting for a division title if that starting trio continues to develop. (Caleb Peiffer)
2008-10-09 14:00:00 (link to chat)Speaking of TNSTAAPP, does the same ring true for Homer Bailey? Any significant thoughts about his development or is it similar to your comments on Buchholz & Hughes...thanks.
(lrgreen from NYC)
From the people I've talked to who are closer to the situation, Bailey appears to have some serious makeup issues that weren't necessarily foreseen at the time he was considered such hot stuff. Confidence and even cockiness aren't necessarily detriments in a ballplayer, but uncoachability - the word that gets tossed around a lot in conjunction with his name - is.

I have a hunch he gets traded by Opening Day next year. A change of scenery is probably in his best interest. (Jay Jaffe)
2008-10-09 14:00:00 (link to chat)Homer Bailey for JJ Hardy - reasonable deal?
(kingofstyle from NY)
Me, I wouldn't take Bailey for a J.J. Hardy rookie card, let alone Hardy himself, at least right now. Hardy's been worth about 14 WARP3 the past two years, and while the Brewers have a prospect in Alicedes Escobar, if they're going to trade their starting SS for pitching, they've got to get back somebody who's much more developed, a surer bet. (Jay Jaffe)
2008-10-09 14:00:00 (link to chat)Homer Bailey is worthless right now... I'd look at whatever the Indians gave for Anthony Reyes. Maybe Bailey fetches a little more but not much.
(Yanick from Brooklyn)
Very good point. The Tribe gave up an oldish minor-league reliever named Luis Perdomo - live arm, but only in Double A at age 24. Christina Kahrl hit this well here: (Jay Jaffe)
2008-06-23 12:00:00 (link to chat)Hey I have bought the last 3 annuals- cant I get a question answered? Now that they have had some major league experience how would you rate the following highy touted pitchers= Andrew Miller, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Tim Lincecum, Homer Bailey and Clayton Kershaw. If Detroit had a do-over would they still select Miller over Kershaw?
(bpfan from nyc)
Of course you can get a question answered. I'd rank them like this: Chamberlain, Lincecum, Kershaw, Hughes, Miller, Bailey. Though I'm sure they wouldn't say so, I think the Tigers would rather have taken Kershaw with the way it's all turned out. (John Perrotto)
2008-05-30 13:00:00 (link to chat)Help, I'm going crazy flipping back and forth between Mario Kart wii and GT5prologue. But I digress, on to baseball... Homer Bailey = a) green apple b) almost ripe plum c) over ripe peach d) rotten tomato e)headed for the compost bin ..anxiously waiting Disgaea 3....
(Goldeye99 from Wpg)
Realistic racing, ptth. I'm all about Mario Kart and F-Zero, none of this realistic stuff :-)

I think the Reds are just being cautious with Bailey this time, since they rushed him up last time. I'll say he's ready, but the Reds are waiting for the right opening. They have been good about putting kids onto the roster this year, so look for him to come up sooner than later.

Also, Disgaea 3 is a must buy. I can't wait for the DS version of the original to come out too, so I can now replay it with multiplayer :-) (Marc Normandin)
2008-05-29 13:00:00 (link to chat)There is a good deal of talk by Cincy media (Hal McCoy, John Fay, Marty) that Homer Bailey has a bad attitude. And while he might, I think the bigger problem is that he does't want to deal with these crusty old men who are doing their job considerably less effectively than they should. Any insight?
(Ryan from Cincinnati, OH)
I can't really top yours. (Joe Sheehan)
2008-04-29 14:00:00 (link to chat)Nope, not related to Goldeneye, but rather the Winnipeg Goldeyes (independent minor league baseball team). Since I'm here again, how about Homer Bailey? Call up soon? or did Baker go sour on him in spring training? I've had Bailey stashed in my fantasy keeper league for way too long.
(Goldeye99 from Wpg)
I keep hearing he's coming up soon, but then he doesn't show. At least he's finally pitching like he knows what's up in Triple-A, so maybe he won't get rocked in the show this time. (Marc Normandin)
2008-01-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Here we go again, you hating Homer Bailey again. There is no way Itrade Bailey for Joe Blanton and Homer Bailey has a world of an ability.
(Rick from Ohio)
Yes, we do. Bailey has a world of TALENT, not a world of ability. He unquestionably has talent, but he also unquestionably has not funneled that talent into results. For a Reds team that has a weak bullpen, Dusty as manager, and thinks (rightly) that they can contend in their division, Blanton is the better fit. (Will Carroll)
2008-02-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)Please rank in order of highest ceiling: Lincecum Buckholz Gallardo Chamberlain Bailey Fr. Morales
(anthonyjoseph from Chicago)
Questions like that are too subjective for me to answer with much conviction, but given the number of plus pitches in his repertoire, I'd go with Buchholz. That said, I think the most likely to reach his ceiling, and maintain it, might be Gallardo.

Of that group, does anyone else find it interesting that Lincecum has the only run-of-the-mill first name? Or that he was born the year the Replacements released their album "Let It Be" -- one year before they released "Tim"?

Meanwhile, yes, I know that Homer Bailey's name is actually David. I also know that Homer Smoot, who was among the NL leaders in home runs in 1902, was nicknamed "Doc." Given that some people have expressed health concerns regarding one or more pitchers on this list, perhaps that's ironic? (David Laurila)
2008-02-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)Outside of his height, why is Homer Bailey more highly regarded than Johhny Cueto. Cueto is striking out as many, walking fewer, and has thrown many more innings in a single season than Bailey. Obviously I'm happy to have both, but I can't help but think Bailey is still going to be trying to figure it out when Cueto is the Reds #3 starter.
(TheRedsMan from Chicago)
Is it just height, or is it weight also? When it comes to pitchers, some would argue that size matters.

It wouldn't surprise me if Cueto is Cinci's number 3 starter this year. That said, it wouldn't shock me if Bailey is the number 2. Is it out of the question that the two could combine for 30 wins this season? Not in my opinion. (David Laurila)
2008-02-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)Garza or Homer Bailey, '08 and longterm?
(Mike from NJ)
Boy, that's a tough one because I like both. Forced to choose, I'll take Garza. I think the Rays were wise in acquiring him. (David Laurila)

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