Biographical

Portrait of Jonathan Papelbon

Jonathan Papelbon PNationals

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2019 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 38)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
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Birth Date11-23-1980
Height6' 5"
Weight230 lbs
Age43 years, 5 months, 1 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
0.72015
0.02016
2017
2018
-0.12019
proj
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shown —Click to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA- WARP
2005 BOS MLB 17 3 34.0 3 1 0 33 17 34 4 105 8.7 4.5 1.1 9.0 0% .322 1.47 4.34 2.65 91 3.78 81.3 0.7
2006 BOS MLB 59 0 68.3 4 2 35 40 13 75 3 106 5.3 1.7 0.4 9.9 0% .224 0.78 2.17 0.92 78 3.29 67.0 1.8
2007 BOS MLB 59 0 58.3 1 3 37 30 15 84 5 102 4.6 2.3 0.8 13.0 0% .216 0.77 2.51 1.85 61 2.11 43.7 2.2
2008 BOS MLB 67 0 69.3 5 4 41 58 8 77 4 107 7.5 1.0 0.5 10.0 0% .293 0.95 2.03 2.34 61 2.42 51.7 2.3
2009 BOS MLB 66 0 68.0 1 1 38 54 24 76 5 112 7.1 3.2 0.7 10.1 0% .278 1.15 3.09 1.85 100 4.43 94.9 0.6
2010 BOS MLB 65 0 67.0 5 7 37 57 28 76 7 113 7.7 3.8 0.9 10.2 0% .287 1.27 3.48 3.90 94 3.58 80.9 1.0
2011 BOS MLB 63 0 64.3 4 1 31 50 10 87 3 108 7.0 1.4 0.4 12.2 0% .309 0.93 1.56 2.94 63 2.22 51.5 1.9
2012 PHI MLB 70 0 70.0 5 6 38 56 18 92 8 99 7.2 2.3 1.0 11.8 0% .296 1.06 2.93 2.44 72 2.50 57.4 1.9
2013 PHI MLB 61 0 61.7 5 1 29 59 11 57 6 106 8.6 1.6 0.9 8.3 0% .296 1.14 3.02 2.92 93 3.63 87.0 0.7
2014 PHI MLB 66 0 66.3 2 3 39 45 15 63 2 99 6.1 2.0 0.3 8.5 0% .247 0.90 2.50 2.04 90 3.34 81.8 0.9
2015 PHI 0 37 0 39.7 2 1 17 31 8 40 3 97 7.0 1.8 0.7 9.1 0% .264 0.98 3.03 1.59 88 3.35 78.2 0.6
2015 WAS 0 22 0 23.7 2 2 7 22 4 16 4 95 8.4 1.5 1.5 6.1 0% .250 1.10 4.89 3.04 97 4.50 105.2 0.1
2016 WAS MLB 37 0 35.0 2 4 19 37 14 31 3 89 9.5 3.6 0.8 8.0 36% .327 1.46 3.72 4.37 106 4.91 108.6 0.0
2015 TOT MLB 59 0 63.3 4 3 24 53 12 56 7 96 7.5 1.7 1.0 8.0 0% .000 1.03 3.72 2.13 91 3.78 88.3 0.7
CareerMLB6893725.74136368572185808571047.12.30.710.039%.2801.042.822.44833.2572.814.7

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shown —Click to hide.
YEAR Team Lg LG G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA-
2003 LOW A- NYP 13 6 32.7 1 2 0 43 9 36 2 11.8 2.5 0.6 9.9 0% .406 1.59 3.04 6.33 0 0.00 0.0
2004 SAR A+ FSL 24 24 129.7 12 7 0 97 43 153 6 6.7 3.0 0.4 10.6 0% .287 1.08 2.62 2.64 0 0.00 0.0
2005 BOS MLB AL 17 3 34.0 3 1 0 33 17 34 4 105 8.7 4.5 1.1 9.0 0% .322 1.47 4.34 2.65 91 3.78 81.3
2005 PME AA EAS 14 14 87.0 5 2 0 59 23 83 9 31 6.1 2.4 0.9 8.6 0% -.417 0.94 3.55 2.48 92 3.40 67.0
2005 PAW AAA INT 7 4 27.7 1 2 1 21 3 27 2 110 6.8 1.0 0.6 8.8 0% -.576 0.87 2.62 2.92 67 2.92 57.5
2006 BOS MLB AL 59 0 68.3 4 2 35 40 13 75 3 106 5.3 1.7 0.4 9.9 0% .224 0.78 2.17 0.92 78 3.29 67.0
2007 BOS MLB AL 59 0 58.3 1 3 37 30 15 84 5 102 4.6 2.3 0.8 13.0 0% .216 0.77 2.51 1.85 61 2.11 43.7
2008 BOS MLB AL 67 0 69.3 5 4 41 58 8 77 4 107 7.5 1.0 0.5 10.0 0% .293 0.95 2.03 2.34 61 2.42 51.7
2009 BOS MLB AL 66 0 68.0 1 1 38 54 24 76 5 112 7.1 3.2 0.7 10.1 0% .278 1.15 3.09 1.85 100 4.43 94.9
2010 BOS MLB AL 65 0 67.0 5 7 37 57 28 76 7 113 7.7 3.8 0.9 10.2 0% .287 1.27 3.48 3.90 94 3.58 80.9
2011 BOS MLB AL 63 0 64.3 4 1 31 50 10 87 3 108 7.0 1.4 0.4 12.2 0% .309 0.93 1.56 2.94 63 2.22 51.5
2012 PHI MLB NL 70 0 70.0 5 6 38 56 18 92 8 99 7.2 2.3 1.0 11.8 0% .296 1.06 2.93 2.44 72 2.50 57.4
2013 PHI MLB NL 61 0 61.7 5 1 29 59 11 57 6 106 8.6 1.6 0.9 8.3 0% .296 1.14 3.02 2.92 93 3.63 87.0
2014 PHI MLB NL 66 0 66.3 2 3 39 45 15 63 2 99 6.1 2.0 0.3 8.5 0% .247 0.90 2.50 2.04 90 3.34 81.8
2015 PHI MLB NL 37 0 39.7 2 1 17 31 8 40 3 97 7.0 1.8 0.7 9.1 0% .264 0.98 3.03 1.59 88 3.35 78.2
2015 WAS MLB NL 22 0 23.7 2 2 7 22 4 16 4 95 8.4 1.5 1.5 6.1 0% .250 1.10 4.89 3.04 97 4.50 105.2
2016 WAS MLB NL 37 0 35.0 2 4 19 37 14 31 3 89 9.5 3.6 0.8 8.0 36% .327 1.46 3.72 4.37 106 4.91 108.6
2016 POT A+ CAR 1 1 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 95 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 50% .000 0.00 1.54 0.00 80 3.18 70.3
2016 HAR AA EAS 2 0 2.0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0.0 4.5 0.0 9.0 50% .000 0.50 2.85 0.00 98 3.43 75.7

Plate Discipline

YEAR Pits Zone% Swing% Contact% Z-Swing% O-Swing% Z-Contact% O-Contact% SwStr%
2008 1013 0.5252 0.5489 0.7554 0.6992 0.3825 0.8011 0.6630 0.2446
2009 1166 0.4966 0.4931 0.7565 0.6494 0.3390 0.8032 0.6683 0.2435
2010 1145 0.4769 0.5100 0.7209 0.6520 0.3806 0.8371 0.5395 0.2791
2011 996 0.5000 0.5512 0.6612 0.6827 0.4197 0.7735 0.4785 0.3388
2012 1136 0.5035 0.5053 0.7125 0.6346 0.3741 0.7521 0.6445 0.2875
2013 958 0.5000 0.4937 0.7696 0.6639 0.3236 0.8208 0.6645 0.2304
2014 1006 0.5258 0.5109 0.7432 0.6900 0.3124 0.7918 0.6242 0.2568
2015 893 0.5521 0.5554 0.7419 0.7079 0.3675 0.7966 0.6122 0.2581
2016 557 0.4991 0.4758 0.7623 0.6547 0.2975 0.8571 0.5542 0.2377
Career88700.50800.51700.73420.66970.35850.80080.60850.2658

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-05-21 2014-05-24 DTD 3 3 Right Shoulder Cartilage Injury Labrum - -
2014-05-11 2014-05-17 DTD 6 4 - Neck Soreness - -
2014-04-21 2014-04-22 DTD 1 1 - General Medical Illness - -
2013-06-02 2013-06-04 DTD 2 2 - General Medical Illness - -
2013-03-05 2013-03-09 Camp 4 0 - General Medical Illness - -
2011-02-22 2011-03-01 Camp 7 0 General Medical Illness -
2010-04-27 2010-04-28 DTD 1 1 Low Back Tightness -
2009-09-16 2009-09-18 DTD 2 2 Low Back Tightness Slipped During Warmup -
2009-06-08 2009-06-10 DTD 2 1 General Medical Illness Food Poisoning -
2006-09-02 2006-10-01 DTD 29 26 Right Shoulder Subluxation -
2006-05-06 2006-05-10 DTD 4 3 Low Back Tightness -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2016 WAS $11,000,000
2015 PHI $13,000,000
2014 PHI $13,000,000
2013 PHI $13,000,000
2012 PHI $11,000,058
2011 BOS $12,000,000
2010 BOS $9,350,000
2009 BOS $6,250,000
2008 BOS $775,000
2007 BOS $425,500
2006 BOS $335,400
YearsDescriptionSalary
11 yrPrevious$90,135,958
11 yrTotal$90,135,958

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
10 y 64 dJoe Bick4 years/$50M (2012-15), 2016 option

Details
  • 4 years/$50M (2012-15), plus 2016 option. Signed by Philadelphia as a free agent 11/14/11. 12:$11,000,058, 13-15: $13M annually. 16: $13M vesting option, guaranteed with 55 games finished in 2015 or 100 games finished in 2014-15. Limited no-trade protection (may block deals to 17 clubs - Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Kansas City, LA Dodgers, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Texas and Toronto as of 12/15). Acquired by Washington in trade from Philadelphia 7/28/15. Phillies to pay $4.5M of $4,830,601 remaining in salary for 2015, with Nationals responsible for the balance. Papelbon also agreed to a reduction in the price of the 2016 option from $13M to $11M in exchange for Washington guaranteeing the option immediately. Nationals will defer $3M of Papelbon's 2016 salary until 2017. Released by Washington 8/13/16.
  • 1 year/$12M (2011). Re-signed by Boston 1/18/11 (avoided arbitration).
  • 1 year/$9.35M (2010). Re-signed by Boston1/19/10 (avoided arbitration). Performance bonus: $50,000 for 60 games finished.
  • 1 year/$6.25M (2009). Re-signed by Boston 1/20/09 (avoided arbitration). Award bonuses.
  • 1 year/$0.775M (2008). Re-signed by Boston 3/6/08. Award bonuses.
  • 1 year/$0.4255M (2007). Re-signed by Boston 3/07. Award bonuses.
  • 1 year/$0.3354M (2006). Re-signed by Boston 2/06.
  • 1 year (2005). Contract purchased by Boston 7/05.
  • Drafted by Boston 2003 (4-114) (Mississippi State). $264,500 signing bonus.

2019 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA DRA VORP WARP
90o 7 0 2.3 50 0 51.9 40 19 45 6 .243 1.14 3.59 3.85 -4.9 -0.5
80o 6 0 1.9 44 0 45.6 39 18 40 6 .258 1.24 4.00 4.29 -6.4 -0.7
70o 5.4 0 1.7 40 0 41.2 37 17 36 6 .269 1.31 4.30 4.61 -7.2 -0.8
60o 4.8 0 1.5 36 0 37.6 35 16 33 6 .278 1.37 4.56 4.9 -7.7 -0.8
50o 4.3 0 1.3 33 0 34.3 34 16 30 5 .287 1.43 4.81 5.16 -8.0 -0.9
40o 3.8 0 1.2 30 0 31.0 32 15 27 5 .296 1.50 5.07 5.44 -8.1 -0.9
30o 3.4 0 1 27 0 27.7 30 14 24 5 .306 1.57 5.35 5.73 -8.1 -0.9
20o 2.8 0 0.8 23 0 23.8 27 12 21 4 .317 1.65 5.68 6.09 -7.9 -0.9
10o 2.2 0 0.6 18 0 18.7 23 11 16 4 .332 1.77 6.15 6.59 -7.2 -0.8
Weighted Mean4.201.332033.53215295.2851.424.785.12-7.7-0.8

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BP Annual Player Comments

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BP Articles

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BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2014-07-24 19:00:00 (link to chat)What do you think about Ken Giles and Vic Black? Saves opp in August and Sept?
(Chris from Siem Reap)		Both situations are fluid, I think Giles takes over if Jonathan Papelbon gets moved, and Vic Black might just take that job in Queens. I would put more stock in Giles but both could see saves. I like both guys. (Mauricio Rubio)
2014-04-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)Among the pitchers showing early losses/gains in velocity, it seems like the media has pounced on Jonathan Papelbon even though the numbers show him to be throwing the same (mediocre) stuff as last year. Any other pitcher who you predict could have significant changes in effectiveness based on velocity alone? Too early to worry about Stephen Strasburg missing 1.5 MPH? Will Brandon McCarthy's uptick help him longterm?
(Scott from LA)		Totally agree on Paps. His key is FB command, and 3 innings is not enough to judge where he's at there.

Stras is somewhat worrisome because it comes paired with a weaker mechanical foundation than in the past. Low velo's are common in April, and I was very encouraged by the overall jump in velo in his last start compared to his outing on Opening Day (nearly +2 mph). It's too early to jump off the bridge, but there is some mechanical basis to calm our previously-held enthusiasm.

McCarthy's uptick is encouraging, though more kinetic energy in the system could be a double-edged sword for a player whose scapula doesn't hold under the rigors of pitching, so the question of "long term" is still wide open.

On the jukebox: Colin Hay, "Overkill" (Doug Thorburn)
2013-08-08 17:30:00 (link to chat)Jimmy Nelson, Chris Owings, Brandon Workman, Tyler Skaggs, and Johnny Cueto just got traded for R.A. Dickey, Jonathan Papelbon, Cliff Lee, and Adam Dunn in my league. Not a fan of the veto so I wont veto this trade in my league, but just how lopsided is this for the side receiving Lee, Dickey, etc.?
(Gary from Georgia)		Hi Gary:

It depends on if your league has contracts or allows you to slot guys into rounds if you have a draft league. Cueto is a potentially strong keep assuming health and Skaggs has a nice ceiling. I've seen leagues where getting Cueto and Skaggs will net you four players, and it's not like Dickey or Dunn have been anything close to elite. It sounds like this is atypical for your league, though. The answer to these types of questions often depend more on your league culture than anything else. (Mike Gianella)
2013-04-16 20:00:00 (link to chat)How do I value Addison Reed if I just started a dynasty rebuild? I know closers should be the first thing to go in a rebuild, but I can't help but believe he's relatively stable and likely to help me when I compete again in 2-3 years. Thanks
(JoeTinker from Chicago)		Here is a list of all closers who recorded 25 or more saves in 2010: Brian Wilson (48), Heath Bell (47), Rafael Soriano (45), Joakim Soria (43), Matt Capps (42), Neftali Feliz (40), Francisco Cordero (40), Carlos Marmol (38), Billy Wagner (37), Jonathan Papelbon (37), Kevin Gregg (37), Mariano Rivera (33), David Aardsma (31), Juan Oviedo (30), Bobby Jenks (27), Ryan Franklin (27), Brad Lidge (27), Jose Valverde (26), Francisco Rodriguez (25) and Andrew Bailey (25). (Bret Sayre)
2013-02-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)I have an intense dislike for Miguel Cabrera that burns as bright as your (and my) love for Allen Craig. That said, should I avoid Miggy in my auction, or go after if and trade him after the draft?
(Jonah from Phoenix, AZ)		I never let my personal disdain cloud my fantasy judgment. I'd even roster Jonathan Papelbon. Why not just go for Braun, Stanton, Trout, Kemp types instead of having to worry about finagling a trade? (Paul Sporer)
2013-01-29 14:00:00 (link to chat)With David Wells now retired for several years, which MLB player has taken on the mantle of "Most Likely to Adjust Himself (Down There) After Every Pitch"?
(Paul from DC)		I got a good laugh out of this one, Paul. Jonathan Papelbon seems like the obvious answer. (Daniel Rathman)
2012-01-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hey Jay. I was having a conversation with some friends and we were wondering whether the current iteration of the Red Sox has any Hall of Famers on it. What do you think? Also, if you haven't addressed this already, Posada: yes or no? Thanks for the chat!
(mattymatty2000 from Portland, OR)		There's nobody who's a lock, that's for sure. Youkilis doesn't even have 1,000 hits yet, let alone the era's de facto minimum of 2,000. Ortiz has the PED connection and the DH problem. Varitek doesn't even have Posada's credentials. Pedroia and Ellsbury have the potential but they're still mostly potential as far as building cases go - they don't even have good peak scores yet. Late note: I completely forgot about Adrian Gonzalez, who has three straight seasons of at least 6.0 WARP and doesn't turn 30 until May - he's got a stronger JAWS-based case than Pedroia so far. H/T to Cliff Corcoran for pointing out the omission.

Sad to say, the recent Red Sock who might have been building the best case for the Hall of Fame might be the guy who got away, Jonathan Papelbon, in that - much as I loathe him - he's got the talent to wind up better than Trevor Hoffman, if not Mariano Rivera. Still a looooong ways to go on that front, too. (Jay Jaffe's Hall of Fame Special)
2010-09-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Please fill in the blank. This is the best NL Rookie Class since ________ (blank). Thanks! Bobby
(Bobby from New York)		Are we going strictly by league? Because the 2007 class had Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Dustin Pedroia and Josh Hamilton among hitters, Tim Lincecum and Joakim Soria among pitchers. 2006 had Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, Andre Ethier, Prince Fielder, Ian Kinsler, Francisco Liriano, Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, Josh Johnson, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Jonathan Papelbon (who used to not suck), Jonathan Broxton (ditto)...

There's a lot to be excited about with this year's rookie class (Posey, Heyward, Santana, Stanton) but I'm in no rush to appoint them the best class of the past five years until I see much more. (Jay Jaffe)
2010-08-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)Marc, thanks for the chat. Assuming, as it seems relatively safe to do, that the Red Sox miss the playoffs, what do you do this winter if you're Theo Epstein?
(mattymatty2000 from Portland, OR)		Re-sign Beltre, let Victor walk (picks!), install Saltalamacchia as the starting catcher, pick up Ortiz' option for 2011 rather than signing him to a longer deal with fewer dollars, try to convince Bill Hall to stay for something less than the $7.5M Milwaukee was just paying him, trade Jacoby Ellsbury for a front line relief pitcher + prospect, sign Carl Crawford, shift Kalish to center and hope he doesn't put on any more bulk that will push him to a corner, examine the trade market for Jonathan Papelbon in the off chance someone is willing to give up top prospects for his services. If Papelbon goes, sign Heath Bell. (Marc Normandin)
2010-07-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)So is Feliz going to get Paplebbon'd and Chamberlain'd long term?
(Bobby from Iraq)		I don't think so, not yet. He's been great out of the bullpen, but I don't think he's been Jonathan Papelbon levels of great. It makes no sense to sacrifice 130 innings in order to keep him in the pen long-term--you have to be pretty amazing to make that worth it, something Tommy Bennett and I discussed earlier in the season. (Marc Normandin)
2009-09-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)What's wrong with Jonathan Papelbon?
(Eric Gagne from Canada)		He was great in 2008 because his low walk rate made up for the dip in strikeouts. This year he's around the same K rate, but with more than triple the walk rate of 2008. His fastball has nowhere near the run value it used to, which isn't because of a velocity drop and more because everyone knows it's coming. The less he uses his splitter, the more he uses his fastball. (Marc Normandin)
2008-05-27 13:00:00 (link to chat)Why isn't Carlos Marmol starting?
(Rob from Bloomington, IL)		Because I think this is one of those Jonathan Papelbon cases where a guy has so outperformed expectations in the bullpen that you don't tinker with that. I think I'd honestly rather try Kerry Wood in the rotation and make Marmol my closer. (Nate Silver)
2008-02-28 14:00:00 (link to chat)The notion of moving Joakim Soria to the rotation... do it now, do it never, or do it later?
(BL from Bozeman)		He's had some problems in the past, and when you're as good as he's been initially in a relief role, as Jonathan Papelbon demonstrates, it becomes very hard to move past the automatic instinct to not fix what isn't broken. (Christina Kahrl)


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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC


Although he has not thrown an MLB pitch in 2024, Jonathan Papelbon threw 9,550 pitches that were tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2007 and 2016, all of them occuring in Spring Training. In 2016, he relied primarily on his Fourseam Fastball (92mph), also mixing in a Slider (80mph) and Splitter (86mph).