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2019 Preseason Forecast
Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET
|2014-12-18 15:00:00 (link to chat)||I've heard Kris Bryant is a Jeff Bagwell type ceiling with the bat. Do you ever see .300 averages to go along with the 40homerun power? Where have all the thumping 1b gone? Goldschmidt is the only dude.|
(rangerfans2 from Fort Worth)
|Dude, Jose Abreu is right over there, and Miguel Cabrera is right behind him. I wouldn't put the expectation of a .300 average on Bryant but I'm not going to tell you it's impossible. (Craig Goldstein)|
|2014-01-30 14:00:00 (link to chat)||If I am correct, as part of the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, there is a separate hall for baseball writers. Wouldn't be great if writers get voted in by retired baseball players?
I would love to see Jeff Bagwell et al debate the merits of Murray Chass et al.|
(rzt101 from NYC)
|That would be amusing, though it would also be bad for baseball writing. Writers who cover teams closely already have enough incentive not to ask interesting questions that players might not want to answer. (Ben Lindbergh)|
|2013-01-11 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Fill in the blank: If I think Jack Morris is an HOF'er but not Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, and- for Pete's sake!- Edgar Martinez, I am a _______.|
(Eusebio from Houston)
|...believer that election to the Hall of Fame should be based on narrative rather than statistical evidence. (Jay Jaffe on the Hall of Fame)|
|2013-01-11 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Do you think Frank Thomas will be in the same boat as Jeff Bagwell and Mike Piazza? In which they all played in the era of big power hitters but have smoke of PED's around them even though there is no hard evidence?|
(Steve G. from STL)
|Thomas was the one player who talked to George Mitchell for his infamous report, which sets him apart from everybody else, and he doesn't even have what Piazza and Bagwell both do - admissions that they used androstenedione during a time when it was still legal both in the eyes of the government and baseball (a set of facts I'm surprised few writers mention; see their candidate profiles at http://mlb.si.com for the links). I think he'll be helped by that but hurt by the fact that something like 55% of his career was spent as a DH. He'll get in, but maybe not on the first ballot. (Jay Jaffe on the Hall of Fame)|
|2013-01-11 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio are both easily Top 15 players all-time at their position (and Bagwell maybe even Top 5); Schilling is one of the best RH pitchers of the last fifty years, both regular season and certainly post-season, couldn't even get 40%; Bernie Williams and Kenny Lofton, two of the best CF of the last 30 years, didn't even get enough to stay on the ballot. How broken is the system? Can it even be fixed? What would you say to someone that says that, considering there are mediocre guys that have been elected and excellent ones that have been snubbed, that the Hall of Fame has been rendered meaningless as an honor?|
(Ashitaka1110 from Houston, TX)
|I don't think the system is as broken as you suggest, by any means - one year is a small sample size by which to judge the results you mention. Bagwell and Biggio will be in very soon. I have Bernie well below the standard, and Lofton slightly below, so I can't really get too up in arms over that portion of what you wrote.
The Hall is still a pretty great honor; even if some of the wrong guys are getting in, to me it's far more worth fighting for the right guys getting in than walking away in disgust. The presence of Jim Rice or even Jack Morris in Cooperstown shouldn't ruin it for anyone. (Jay Jaffe on the Hall of Fame)
|2012-12-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Newly-minted BBWAA member, huh? So hypothetically, if they were to let you vote already, yes or no to Jeff Bagwell in the Hall of Fame?|
(Ashitaka1110 from Houston, TX)
|Yes of course I would. For one thing, I have roughly one trillion Jeff Bagwell rookie cards that would benefit from his (very deserving) induction. I'm not sure anybody has thought through the conflict of interest inherent in giving a vote to the baseball card generation. (Sam Miller)|
|2012-01-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)||True or false: Jeff Bagwell hasn't made the Hall (yet) because no one wants to believe that he didn't hit any homers in the minors cause New Britain was impossible to hit homers in.
(dianagram from NYC)
|That might be true, at least in part. How many homers did Bill James project for him when he "projected" him to beat Tony Gwynn for the batting title in his rookie year? I'll have to go dig my Bill James Handbook out of the closet and find the answer, unless someone beats me to it. (Mike Fast)|
|2012-01-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)||It is nice here.|
(Envious Mustache from Elysian Fields)
|And the winner is... Barry Larkin with 86.4 percent of the vote, the only player elected this year as expected. Some big surprises, good and bad, among the next wave. Jack Morris at 66.7 percent has put himself in good position to get over the top despite the crowd, Jeff Bagwell at 56.0 percent made a solid advance in the face of an odious whisper campaign, Lee Smith got to 50.6 percent, Tim Raines is very close to that mark at 48.7 percent, and even Alan Trammell posted a solid gain at 36.8 percent. Hell, Bernie Williams got 9.6 percent and stays on the ballot after all. (Jay Jaffe's Hall of Fame Special)|
|2010-07-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Where do you rank Jim Thome among possible Hall of Famers? There doesn't seem to be much buzz except from the bees. Care to stir up that nest? |
(WARPspeedfreak from Headspace)
|I certainly think Thome belongs, and so does JAWS, which had him one point ahead of the 1B standard at the outset of the year. Even so, he's well behind Frank Thomas, Jeff Bagwell, Mark McGwire on the scale, and below Keith Hernandez and Will Clark. Not having an MVP award has led to the perception that he's just an accumulator, and I think he's gonna be a guy whose candidacy gets fought over for little reason. He belongs, though. (Jay Jaffe)|
|2010-01-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)||So if the pitchers are an underwhelming lot, which interesting position players will we be talking about in one year?|
(Grant from Nashville)
|The top new position playing candidates are Jeff Bagwell, Rafael Palmeiro, John Olerud and Larry Walker. (Jay Jaffe)|
|2009-01-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)||How do you think Jeff Bagwell will be viewed by the HOF voters when he comes up? I know he scores well on the BP metrics due to his great batting eye and superior golvework, but he lacks the big counting stats to assure his induction. I would think Rice getting in helps in that regard, because Baggie was certainly a "feared hitter" in his day.|
(Fred from Houston)
|He's a strong candidate from a JAWS perspective, but I think he'll have a tough go because of his early retirement, relatively low counting stats and the perception that his numbers were inflated by park and league in the so-called "Steroid era." It should be an interesting case, though. (Jay Jaffe)|
|2008-12-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Will, it seems that Teixeira will surely sign a long contract, maybe even 8 or 10 years. Does he seem like a good bet to provide solid value over the life of that contract, particularly the last couple seasons? |
(Phil from NJ)
|NFL.com ads on BP? That's a bit odd looking ...
Ok, it's impossible to project 10 years out. Three is tough. Without the PECOTA comps, I go to BRef. There, you start seeing comp names like Willie McCovey, Jeff Bagwell, Fred McGriff and if you want a downside, Glenn Davis. All are pretty good physical comps, so that's a plus.
McCovey was a HOFer and good until 37, with a nice peak through age-33, so getting those years of Teixeira cover most of an 8 year deal.
Bagwell has a similar career path with a bit steeper of a drop due to the shoulder. Still, if you'd signed him to a big deal at age-28, you wouldn't have been unhappy.
Davis had a HUGE dropoff and was out of the game at 32, so there's your worst-case.
It's McGriff who I think is most comparable. Really good through 31, then good enough to be an All-Star for four more years. Worth $20 million a year? Not for the whole contract, but you don't kick yourself for doing it. For Teixeira, I wonder if the off-field value holds as much as we think for Baltimore (where he could be a huge difference maker in a lineup with Markakis and Wieters) or for Washington (where they're gonna stink no matter what and he could end up A-Rodding by the middle of the deal). (Will Carroll)
|2008-11-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Thanks for thee chat Will. Is it just a macho thing or do you know of a good reason more sluggers don't wear the Jeff Bagwell style padded batting glove? Some hitters are constantly pounded inside and it seams like an easy way to protect against a major injury. Carlos Lee wears an ankle guard for protection, why not a padded glove too? |
(Fred from Houston)
|It's something I've talked about for years and finally got to the answer - it's illegal. Using any sort of padding requires a waiver and usually requires a previous injury. Whether it's an elbow guard or a padded glove, it would require an apparently hard to get waiver. I think that's very short sighted and should be changed. (Will Carroll)|
|2008-05-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Steven, Serious question: how does the team of baseball experts plan to differentiate this book from Bill James already very, very good Baseball Abstract?|
(strupp from Madison)
|Let's see... I have the second edition of the Historical Abstract right next to me. Bill devotes nine pages to the 1980s, plus assorted player comments on guys who happened to fall into his top 100 at each position, among them such insightful comments as the one on Don Mattingly ("100% ballplayer, 0% bull----.") and Jeff Bagwell ("Pass."). We will devote over 600 pages to the 1980s and its players, ALL the key players, not just the stars, and there ain't gonna be no "Pass."
Said with all respect to James and his book, both of which I admire. Our book wouldn't exist without his, and you're right to guess it will have something of the flavor of it, but we're going to surpass it in our subject area. (Steven Goldman)
|2008-05-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Jeff Bagwell...80's???|
(Larry Anderson from Not Boston)
|You're missing the point. We won't be "pass"-ing on anybody, not Bagwell specifically. That said, Bagwell was drafted in 1989, and Kevin Goldstein will be writing about prospects, drafting, and player development throughout the decade, so my guess is that he shows up in one of his sections, even if he won't be among the player comments. (Steven Goldman)|
No BP Roundtables have mentioned this guy.