Baseball Prospectus

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Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 73)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	80	Luke Scott	2014	0	DNP
2	78	Ryan Howard	2016	91
3	78	Mike Napoli	2018	0	DNP
4	78	Olmedo Saenz	2007	91
5	77	Roy Sievers	1963	113
6	77	Fernando Tatis	2011	0	DNP
7	77	Carlos Delgado	2008	121
8	77	Chili Davis	1996	126
9	77	Dick Allen	1978	0	DNP
10	76	Derrek Lee	2012	0	DNP
11	76	Tony Perez	1978	112
12	76	Greg Vaughn	2002	86
13	76	Tony Clark	2008	75
14	76	Eduardo Perez	2006	98
15	75	Carlos Pena	2014	79
16	75	Travis Hafner	2013	94
17	75	Dwight Evans	1988	132
18	75	Jim Hickman	1973	111
19	75	Cliff Johnson	1984	143
20	75	Mike Stanley	1999	124
21	75	Norm Cash	1971	146
22	75	Gil Hodges	1960	85
23	75	Joe Adcock	1964	136
24	74	Jose Canseco	2001	121
25	74	Russell Branyan	2012	0	DNP
26	74	Mo Vaughn	2004	0	DNP
27	74	Mike Piazza	2005	111
28	74	Cliff Floyd	2009	62
29	74	Nelson Cruz	2017	143
30	74	Jack Howell	1998	82
31	74	Javy Lopez	2007	0	DNP
32	74	Adam LaRoche	2016	0	DNP
33	74	Vic Wertz	1961	109
34	74	Champ Summers	1982	105
35	74	Jim Lemon	1964	0	DNP
36	73	David Justice	2002	108
37	73	Andruw Jones	2013	0	DNP
38	73	Mickey Tettleton	1997	79
39	73	John Mabry	2007	65
40	73	George Crowe	1957	107
41	73	Alfonso Soriano	2012	115
42	73	Jermaine Dye	2010	0	DNP
43	73	Orlando Cepeda	1974	82
44	73	Fred McGriff	2000	115
45	73	Ken Singleton	1983	130
46	72	Rafael Palmeiro	2001	148
47	72	Dave Kingman	1985	105
48	72	George McQuinn	1946	93
49	72	Justin Ruggiano	2018	0	DNP
50	72	Phil Nevin	2007	0	DNP
51	72	Jeff Bagwell	2004	120
52	72	Mike Cameron	2009	104
53	72	Mark Teixeira	2016	85
54	72	David Ortiz	2012	165
55	72	David Dellucci	2010	0	DNP
56	72	Josh Willingham	2015	0	DNP
57	72	Curtis Granderson	2017	107
58	72	Duke Snider	1963	110
59	71	Tilly Walker	1924	0	DNP
60	71	Eddie Mathews	1968	103
61	71	Ken Phelps	1991	0	DNP
62	71	Deron Johnson	1975	96
63	71	Paul Konerko	2012	131
64	71	Andre Thornton	1986	113
65	71	Ken Griffey	2006	103
66	71	David Ross	2013	68
67	71	Bob Watson	1982	107
68	71	Bob Bailey	1979	0	DNP
69	71	Ron Cey	1984	110
70	71	Mike Easler	1987	86
71	71	Gorman Thomas	1987	0	DNP
72	71	John Lowenstein	1983	132
73	71	Mark Sweeney	2006	87
74	70	Hank Sauer	1953	111
75	70	Frank Thomas	2004	154
76	70	George Scott	1980	0	DNP
77	70	Bob Allison	1971	0	DNP
78	70	Casey Blake	2010	90
79	70	Bill White	1970	0	DNP
80	70	Tim Salmon	2005	0	DNP
81	70	Pedro Guerrero	1992	63
82	70	Ken Caminiti	1999	119
83	70	Dale Long	1962	101
84	70	Reggie Sanders	2004	99
85	70	Lyle Overbay	2013	91
86	69	Bob Cerv	1961	81
87	69	Ryan Klesko	2007	90
88	69	Matt Stairs	2004	105
89	69	Torii Hunter	2012	116
90	69	Jim Spencer	1983	0	DNP
91	69	Mickey Vernon	1954	121
92	69	Larry Doby	1960	0	DNP
93	69	Don Baylor	1985	112
94	69	Darrell Porter	1988	0	DNP
95	69	Boog Powell	1978	0	DNP
96	69	George Foster	1985	117
97	69	Andres Galarraga	1997	135
98	69	Jay Buhner	2001	113
99	69	Fred Lynn	1988	118
100	69	Graig Nettles	1981	111

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2018		Sixteen years and some-odd days after John Hancocking his first professional contract with the Dodgers, Gutierrez signed on a blue dotted line again last winter amid the team's search up, down and sideways for a solution—any solution—to cure what had fatally ailed it against left-handed pitching. The theory behind the reunion was sound enough, as the flashes of brilliance and death to assorted flying things that had marked Gutierrez's when-healthy career included a noteworthy résumé of southpaw slaying. But Gutierrez sagged under the weight of inactivity as the team's 25th man, logging just eight starts in the season's first two months and recording just a single multi-hit game before a rare and chronic back condition flared up and foisted him onto the shelf for good in late June. As he heads into another round of free agency, it's quite possible his days of playing under a guaranteed contract are numbered.
2017		Given almost 100 more plate appearances in 2016, Gutierrez wasn’t quite able to replicate his 2015 success, but he remains a useful player. With the addition of Danny Valencia, an upgrade over the player Gutierrez has aged into, he sets off for his fourth organization—bet you forgot he was part of the Milton Bradley-to-L.A. deal too. After a parade of maladies that would have made a Greek chorus accuse the baseball gods of being a bit too on the nose, the man once known as “Death to Flying Things” might be happy just to escape with all his limbs intact.
2016		Injuries are a part of the game, but Gutierrez's injury history reads like a Greek tragedy of the first order. Gutierrez missed all of 2014 with ankylosing spondylitis, a debilitating arthritic condition of the spine. It was an open question as to whether he would even recover, let alone set foot on a baseball field again. But after a year and a half of rehabilitation, Guti not only made it back, he mashed the you-know-what out of the ball, crushing as many homers as he did the previous four years combined. To call his small-sample slugging percentage a fluke is accurate but misleading; it insinuates a return to career norms. But beneath the hospital blankets and casts, Gutierrez has transformed as a ballplayer, losing defensive prowess and accumulating power. The question, as always, is how long can he stay on the field and on his feet, before Zeus comes and strikes him down with the next tragic malady.
2015		Franklin Gutierrez swears that he'll be ready to participate in spring training this year, but what will follow will almost certainly be an exhausting demonstration of mortality. Gutierrez is the stepped-on ant with one good leg who can only labor in circles, over and over.
2014		What was it this year, you ask? Left groin tightness (three days), right hamstring strain (60 days) and right hamstring again (63 days). Once again, Gutierrez looked like more than a capable center fielder when he was healthy. More importantly, though, Gutierrez is a 31-year-old who has played just 173 games over the past three seasons, and just 81 over the past two. His durability issues might make him a candidate to be a nifty short-side platoon option in center field�Gutierrez's career OPS is 172 points higher against lefties, and the consistent rest could help stave off more injuries.
2013		Gutierrez�s season started late because of a torn pectoral muscle, and was interrupted by a concussion suffered when a pickoff throw hit him in the face. When he could play, he had the best OPS+ of his career. It�s hard to know what to make of that, given the sample size, a statement that�s especially true when evaluating his defense. Gutierrez was the best center fielder in the game three years ago, but advanced metrics have gone south on him since then. If a single season of defensive data is inconclusive, then the half- and quarter-seasons Gutierrez has been playing might be worse than no data at all. He also has lost speed, as shown by his stolen-base attempts. Given his age, it may not return.�
2012		Skeptics tend to dismiss modern defensive metrics because they fluctuate wildly from year to year. But Gutierrez' otherworldly ratings on UZR and +/- have stayed pretty steady over the last four years, while his OPS and other offensive numbers have ranged from average to Mathis. That doesn't make offensive stats irrelevant, of course. It does make Gutierrez almost irrelevant, as even his good glove only gets him to the general vicinity of replacement level. The Mariners can hope the drop in his walk rate and cratering of his power numbers was caused by the irritable bowel syndrome that sidelined him for six weeks to start the season. Gutierrez claimed to be 100 percent in late May, but his impotent bat syndrome persisted until an oblique strain in early September.
2011		Gutierrez was a revelation in his first season in Safeco, but after earning the moniker �Death to Flying Things� for his ability to rope in any ball that passed through his extensive airspace in 2009, the swift center fielder fell back to earth himself last season. An expected regression in his historically great defensive numbers made his fielding appear merely very good, instead of otherworldly, although the Gold Glove voters belatedly acknowledged his acumen after he set a major-league record for consecutive defensive chances without an error. Perhaps more disappointing was the offensive stagnation that took root in his age-27 sophomore season in Seattle, as he failed to carry forward the progress he had seemed to make at the plate as he entered his prime. Of course, his 2010 TAv was perfectly in line with his career rate, so his BABIP-aided 2009 now appears to have been the exception. The four-year, $20.5-million extension that Gutierrez received last January in exchange for his arbitration years and first crack at free agency offered potential for a team-friendly steal, but in retrospect, it looks to have been a fair exchange.
2010		There may not be a baseball player who provides more defensive value to his team than Gutierrez. Nearly every metric estimates that in 2009 he saved between 25 and 30 runs more than the average center fielder with the glove. Resultantly, many of the Mariners� pitchers had ERAs that exceeded their talent level. So, full credit to Zduriencik and company for acquiring him and recognizing that he was being wasted as a right fielder. Gutierrez's bat is adequate for the position, but with his fielding worth three wins by itself, that's all it has to be. Not too many fielders sustain their performances at this high level, but Gutierrez is young enough to linger in Willie Mays territory for a while longer. He didn't win a Gold Glove, as if we're telling you something you don't already know about how screwed up the selection process for those is.
2009		Gutierrez entered the season as the Indians' starting right fielder on the strength of his slugging in limited 2007 action and his excellent glove, but hit just .216/.264/.315 in the first half, and that was pretty much the end of that. He's flummoxed by righties (.246/.298/.378 against them in 591 lifetime PA), and he didn't hit lefties last year, either. Dealt to the Mariners as part a three-way deal centering on the Mets' acquisition of J.J. Putz, he's slated to start for Seattle in center field, where he'll continue to impress as a ballhawk and disappoint offensively. Note that his career rates away from Cleveland (.248/.294/.357) are nearly identical to his rates against right-handers.
2008		After starting the year at Buffalo, Gutierrez was promoted into a right field platoon with Trot Nixon, then assumed a larger share of the job as injuries slowed Nixon in the season's final two months. The platoon arrangement is the ideal one for Gutierrez, who is an MVP candidate against left-handers (.330/.366/.553) but against righties appears to be capable of little more than an occasional bit of power (.232/.292/.429). The Indians seem to understand his limitations and are hoping that Dellucci can remain healthy enough to keep Gutierrez from having to face his own kind.
2007		He`s become a bit of an annoyance in the system, really. The prize of 2004`s Milton Bradley deal, Gutierrez is a five-tool athlete who has never translated those tools into baseball skills. He hits for a decent average, he hits doubles but not many home runs, he draws a few walks, he steals a few bases, all nice things, but collectively they add up to a prototypical fourth outfielder, not the future star he was supposed to be. He spent 2006 shuttling back and forth between Buffalo and Cleveland, and that will probably continue this year.
2006		Despite a brief appearance as a pinch-runner with the big club in September, most of Gutierrez`s playing time since coming over in the Milton Bradley trade has been at Double-A Akron. An outstanding defender with good speed, Gutierrez could be roaming center in Cleveland as soon as 2007 if the Indians decide to move Grady Sizemore to one of the corners. The only question is his bat, which has been fairly quiet since he left Vero Beach. It`ll make the difference between his being a good starter or just a fifth outfielder.
2005		Gutierrez was the key prospect acquired in the "Who will rid us of this turbulent outfielder" Milton Bradley anti-love swap. Coming off a year in which he showed tremendous power for a 20-year-old in the Florida State League, Gutierrez struggled with the strike zone and the effects of bone chips in his left elbow. Considered a useful defender, Gutierrez may turn out to be an above-average bat for center field even if he never does learn better pitch recognition. Given his age, the ceiling could be much higher.
2004		Gutierrez continued to show massive power as a 20-year-old, roping 44% of his hits for extra bases at Vero Beach, coupled with speed indicators that make for an intriguing combination. Like so many hitters in the Dodgers' farm system, however, Gutierrez lacks control of the strike zone. His long-term projection is strong, but we'd like to see him round out his game a little. He'll start next year in Jacksonville, hopefully fighting the organization's emphasis on aggressiveness at the plate. In a few years. he could very well be Juan Gonzalez.

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