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2019 Preseason Forecast
Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET
|2015-03-19 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Who are some of your favorite non-Cubs minor leaguers?|
(Shawn from Cubicle)
|Some of my favorite past Cubs were Ron Santo and Dusty Baker. A funny story actually my Grandfather used to get Dusty Baker his toothpick back for a few seasons about 10 years ago. I then got the opportunity to be the bat-boy for 10 plus games over a few year span. Current Cubs would have to be Anthony Rizzo. I really like his worth ethic as great showing on and off the field within the Chicago community. I'm a big believer in giving back and think he is a great ambassador for the MLB throughout his volunteering and charity work. (Rob Willer)|
|2013-01-11 14:00:00 (link to chat)||To me, the most overlooked thing regarding the results of the voting is Kenny Lofton's not receiving the requisite 5% of the vote to remain on the ballot.
1. Do you think in a regular year without a polarizing issue like steroids, would he have received the vote?
2. Now that he can only be inducted by the veterans committee, what do you think his chances are?
3. Do you think his bouncing around from team to team later in his career hurts the voter's perception of him?
I think it's very unfortunate that he won't stay on the ballot. I'm one who, after reading your analysis and through my own observation of him when he was active, certainly would get my vote if I had one.|
(Mike Shumka from Milton, Ontario)
|I think Lofton suffers less because of the steroid protest than the size of the crowd on the ballot and the fact that a certain segment of the electorate dramatically undervalues walks and defense. Nearly all of the Hall's recent injustices fit into that pattern - think of Ron Santo, Bobby Grich and Tim Raines, for example.
Lofton will have a long wait ahead of him if his cause is taken up by the Veterans Committee. Among center field contemporaries, Jim Edmonds, Andruw Jones and Carlos Beltran will all have their cases taken up by the BBWAA, and they've got reasonable merits and similar JAWS scores too. (Jay Jaffe on the Hall of Fame)
|2013-01-11 14:00:00 (link to chat)||When the dust clears, do you see Lou Whitaker getting in to the Hall?|
(Yefrem from Canada)
|Eventually, I think there's a good chance Trammell, Whitaker and Morris are all enshrined via the Veterans Committee process. I have Whitaker a bit below the JAWS standard and below Bobby Grich (http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_2B.shtml), but he's above on career and we're talking numbers to the right of the decimal overall - a false precision, basically.
It's probably too late given the current crowd of candidates, but I'd like to have seen Whitaker get back onto the BBWAA ballot via a similar amnesty to what put Ron Santo on the ballot in 1985 after he went 1-and-done in 1980. (Jay Jaffe on the Hall of Fame)
|2012-04-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Being one with an eye to history, you might remind Greg (america) of what happened about fifty years ago when the Cubs tried to do without a manager and rotate duties among the coaches. I enjoyed it immensely and found it highly entertaining. Then again, I'm a Cardinals fan.|
(Bill from New Mexico)
|Excellent point, Bill. Beyond future Hall of Famers Ernie Banks, Billy Williams and Ron Santo (man, do I love typing that), it didn't help that those Cubs teams weren't so talented; they went 61-90 and 59-103 in the two years they did it, 1961-1962. They did post an 82-80 record in 1963 once Bob Kennedy emerged as the "head coach," though it helped that Santo and Williams developed into stars, and their pitching took a step forward. Wikipedia has a lot to say about the situation, but I haven't vetted that info: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_of_coaches (Jay Jaffe)|
|2012-01-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)||I certainly hope Barry Larkin gets in today, but wouldn't it be eerie if Ron Santo is the only player to get in? One inductee, and a silent podium.
(HalfStreet from Fairfax VA)
|Well, somebody - his widow, one of his sons, or a teammate, will be speaking on Santo's behalf, I believe, and maybe two people, so it's not going to be totally silent. But it's not going to help attendance any if Larkin doesn't get in, that's for sure. (Jay Jaffe's Hall of Fame Special)|
|2012-01-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Now that Ron Santo has finally been elected to the Hall, who is the most deserving veteran nominee?|
(Brian from DC)
|Well, technically nobody's nominated at the moment. Among Golden Era candidates, Jimmy Wynn actually has a higher JAWS score, though less on the non-JAWS components (All-Star, Gold Glove, etc). (Jay Jaffe's Hall of Fame Special)|
|2011-11-30 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Jimmy Wynn came up in a recent article as one of the best eligible players not in the Hall of Fame. I know almost nothing about him. Any enlightening stories?|
(Functionary from Grey Cubicle, DC)
|In the new data set, Wynn outranks Ron Santo as the best eligible player outside the Hall according to JAWS. Here's what I wrote about him almost two years ago (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9942), when his ranking wasn't quite as high:
The Toy Cannon spent the first 11 years of his career playing in the Astrodome, a godforsaken hitting environment if there ever was one. Properly adjusted for context, he was a helluva hitter, topping a .300 EqA six times during that span, with a high of .348 in 1969. He had two more outstanding years with the Dodgers in 1974 and 1975 before injuries washed him out of the majors at age 35. In the New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, James ranks Wynn 10th all-time among center fielders, and likens him to former teammate Joe Morgan, another small, strong, speedy guy with outstanding control of the strike zone and good defense. (Jay Jaffe)
|2011-09-06 14:00:00 (link to chat)||3B fWAR/GP
A. Beltre - 0.0280
Ken Boyer - 0.0311
Brooks Robinson - 0.0327
Ron Santo - 0.0354
There are some bad 3B in the HOF, Beltre needs to step up his offense if he wants to be voted in.|
(Bob from Seattle)
|The Seattle ballpark and his own lack of consistency really hurt him there. (Steven Goldman)|
|2009-09-29 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Rock Raines over Ron Santo?|
(Tony from Kalamazoo)
|Tough call there... Okay, this time I will look at the stats. I think I still have to go with Raines on career value and having one or two more great seasons, but cripes, Santo should be in already. (Steven Goldman)|
|2009-08-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Why are we allowed to cover St Louis games when we have such a clear bias towards the Cardinals? Might as well let Ron Santo do Cubs games...|
(Joe Buck & Tim McCarver from FOX)
|You know, sometimes you can't win. I'm posting this question mostly because someone just complained that I have a bias towards the Cardinals because I answered a few questions about them. I should dig out some of the e-mails I have received over the years that detail my hatred towards the Cards. Do I hate them or love them, folks? Maybe, just maybe, I call them as I see them with the Cards and everyone else. Except for your team of course. I hate them a lot, and I hope you lose all the time. Yeah, your team! (Marc Normandin)|
|2009-06-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)||What one non-HoF retired player would you most like to have seen play in person? What one current player have you not seen that you would like to see play in person?|
(Matt from Chicago)
|Hmmm. Ron Santo last played when I was three, and his prime was about five years before that. Of course, he should be in the HOF, you know it, I know it, so perhaps that answer is a bit of a cheat. As far as active cats, I've not yet seen Lincecum pitch in person. (Steven Goldman)|
|2008-12-05 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Ron Santo is going to get in this time, right? I feel for the guy, it actually matters to him.
Rickey Henderson, shoo-in. Jim Rice, inevitable.
Is anyone else even anywhere near possible?
(Mike from Chicago)
|Thank you for writing my entire JAWS series in a few sentences! The other guy who has a shot this yera is Andre Dawson, who polled 65.9 percent last year. Along with Rice and Blyleven, the only player not to get in after passing 50 percent is Hodges, so the odds are strong in favor of an eventual enshrinement. (Jay Jaffe)|
|2008-09-16 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Did you see this recent news: Joe Torre, Ron Santo and Gil Hodges, among others have been added to the Veteran's ballot.
Any thoughts? It would be ironly appropriate if Santo got voted in by the Vets.|
(Matt from Mt. Albert, ON)
|You know, I didn't see it. Torre should go in, certainly for his WS rings, arguably for his playing career, definitely for both when you combine them under the "general wonderfulness" clause that also got people like Red Schoendienst in. Santo is a no-brainer. The arguments for Gil Hodges as a player are kind of weak, unless you want to say that his one title as manager puts him over the "general wonderfulness" line. I don't know that I do. (Steven Goldman)|
|2008-09-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)||I've got a bone to pick with Prospectus over the last few days. It seems like every day someone writes an article about how "this may seem like momentum, but it's not" or "this is just a player getting lucky, it's not a hot streak."
While I realize that most people underestimate the amount of luck that goes into baseball, certainly the game is played by people, and people do get into grooves, start feeling good/bad about themselves, etc., etc.. Y'all wrote It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over and now you're going out of your way to remove narratives from baseball. What is the deal?|
(James from Boston)
|So you're saying that maybe we at BP are on a cold streak, one that's gonna cost us the analytical pennant? There's no panic in this locker room, and my numbers say we'll pull out of it.
Baseball is a game of streaks and slumps, and fans and media tend to attach narratives to them with particular sensitivity to the time of year in which they occur. A slump that wouldn't be thought of as more than a hiccup if it happened in early June is suddenly read as evidence of imminent collapse with an accompanying lack of moral fibre: a choke. The Cubs losing eight of nine in late August/early September prompts everyone to conjure up stories of the black cat in 1969, despite the fact that Leo Durocher is in his grave and the likes of Ron Santo and Fergie Jenkins have nothing to do with this team. The Rays losing six out of seven while the Red Sox win six out of seven is proof that the former is too young to win this thing while the latter just knows how to git-er-done... Yeesh. Might as well turn on the content hose and mail in the next half-dozen columns.
The streaks and slumps that make up a baseball season tend to cloud judgements, as though the most recent week is exponentially more important than the 20 or so which preceeded it. That's just not true unless you're talking about the final days of the season, and for the most part, teams' performances tend to even out. The narratives I tend to enjoy and employ in discussing pennant races do fascinate me, but they're narratives of a whole season or a much longer period than just a lost weekend at this point in time. (Jay Jaffe)
|2008-06-03 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Not that the Cubs need a new GM, (but hey, none of them last forever) but have you found that your style of broadcasting has rubbed off a little on the Chicago print media to the point that if the Cubs ever hired a sabermetrically inclined (a DePodesta type) GM he might be given a little more leeway from them today than he would have five years ago?|
(Dave from NYC)
|No, my style has no effect on anyone else in the organization or covering the team. I just do what I do because that's what makes me comfortable. I get into philosophical debates with people at the park every day and I enjoy the back and forth. Many agree with things I throw out there and many think I'm crazy. But that's the fun of it. Again, I like to ask the baseball people lots of questions because the answers and theories are much more interesting to me than what I think about it.
Along those lines, the Cubs front office is a joy to be around. Jim Hendry and his team of assistants, including Randy Bush, Oneri Fleita and Chuck Wasserstrom, have put up with my plethora of questions for years and they always take the time to give me thoughtful answers, which I totally appreciate.
My broadcast partner Bob Brenly has taught me more about the game the last 3 1/2 than I can quantify and Ron Santo and Lou and his coaches are always eager to break down the game with me, which I appreciate so much. (Len Kasper)
|2008-01-22 19:00:00 (link to chat)||Which team has gotten the most screwed over in the Hall of Fame vote? That is, which team has the most deserving guys who never made it? I think the list begins with the Cubs, who have two third basemen who are probably better than half of the guys currently enshrined at their position.|
(Josh from San Jose, IL)
|I don't know if this is a team-by-team issue. The two most deserving men who are not in the Hall who should be are, in my opinion, Ron Santo and Bert Blyleven. One is a Cub, the other was many things. They might land themselves a HoFer who doesn't belong, too, in the person of Andre Dawson. Let's not forget that of Tinkers to Evers to Chance, only Chance has a truly legit case for inclusion. That probably balances the Santo slighting on the eternal Cubs ledger. (Jim Baker)|
|2010-07-13 16:30:00||All-Star Game||Is Rolen going to the Hall? I don't know. As I wrote a few weeks ago, he scores very well according to the JAWS scale, but by the traditional merits he appears to have an uphill battle. He may be the modern day ROn Santo in more ways than one. (Jay Jaffe)|
|2009-10-16 13:00:00||NLCS Game Two/ALCS Game One||Popup city for the Dodgers.|
adambennett (MD Backgammon Tourney): Abreu for the HoF? A couple more good seasons should do it, right?
Assuming we're talking about Bobby Abreu and not Tony or Winston, he's further away from the Hall of Fame. I looked at this back in August (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9416). By those numbers, which don't account for 2009, he was about 17 WARP short on career and a couple WARP shy on peak, but the real problem is that he's just past 2,100 hits at age 35, isn't close to 300 homers (256), has just two All-Star appearances and has never finished higher than 14th in the MVP voting. Plus there's the fact that guys who walk 80 or 100 times a year are exactly the ones who get kicked in the head by the voters, who prefer hackers like Jim Rice and Ryne Sandberg to plate disciples like Ron Santo, Tim Raines and Bobby Grich. (Jay Jaffe)