Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET
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|2014-01-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)||What is it going to take for Fred McGriff to be elected to the baseball Hall Of Fame? What are your thoughts and insights on his chances?
Second question not related to the above question.
How do you guys project Angels prospect Kaleb Cowart going forward, he had a slow year last season so how do the Angels see him in their organization going forward?
(chris hart from south georgia)
|More Tom Emanski videos and a bigger dad hat. I'll bet McGriff comes up short because MVP voting is even dumber than HOF voting. (Jeff Moore)|
|2013-01-11 14:00:00 (link to chat)||I know Carlos Delgado isn't up for election until 2015, but given that a comparable player (on another site) is Fred McGriff (though McGriff's JAWS socre is higher than Delgado's; 40.7 to 36.3, though their peaks are very close, off by 1 point, with McGriff's being higher), do you forecast that he'll experience a similar voting path McGriff is currently experiencing? Of course, their eligibility windows are different entities, and it may be somewhat like comparing apples to oranges, but the big link between the two is that their careers overlapped the PED era.|
(Mike Shumka from Milton, Ontario)
|Yeah, I don't see Delgado getting anywhere in the voting if McGriff doesn't. It doesn't help his cause that nothing he did after age 34 had much value, WAR-wise. (Jay Jaffe on the Hall of Fame)|
|2012-01-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)||As an obvious Braves fan, what's the rational for Dale Murphy and Fred McGriff being left out of the Hall of Fame.
I understand, although though don't completely agree with, the lack of dominance factor for McGriff, but he was one of the most consistent hitters in the 1990s.
As for Murphy, he is being punished for the opposite, lack of consistency despite his dominance. It is hard to neglect the fact that Murphy was one of the top ten hitters of the 1980s, which should be reason enough to elect him.
Sorry, I am not working with a lot of data here, but I wanted to here your rationale and opinion. Thanks again.|
(UCBravesKing from Erlanger, KY)
|Murphy's peak was high but short, and there was little in between his good years and his awful ones. We have him with six seasons of 5.0 WARP or more, while his seventh best is worth less than 2.0, and only three of them are worth between 1.0 and 2.0. McGriff has just three above 5.0, and six more between 2.0 and 3.0. First base is a position for MASHERS, and he just didn't fit that description for long enough. The average HOF 1B has a True Average of .320, and while the Crime Dog was at .317 or higher nine times, he's down in the .265-.285 range for almost as many. (Jay Jaffe's Hall of Fame Special)|
|2010-07-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)||How about Fred McGriff? Big HR guy with no steroid taint. |
(SIERAmist from Clean Coal Fantasyland, WV)
|Unless he's added a few homers since December, what I wrote back then (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9871) still applies:
For years now, there's been talk of the fact that with his 493 homers, McGriff might unseat Dave Kingman (442 homers) as the player with the highest total not to make the Hall of Fame. Jose Canseco (462 homers) has already erased the so-called "Kingman Line," but then his transgressions insured he'd never make Cooperstown anyway. There's bound to be a certain nostalgia among voters for McGriff, who hit the majority of his shots before the pharmaceutically-fueled assault on the single-season home-run record began, and an acknowledgment that the round-numbered milestone he fell short of means less today than it did a generation ago.
Even so, McGriff doesn't have a particularly strong case for Cooperstown. Despite the two home-run titles, he's well short of the Black Ink of a typical Hall of Famer (though that Jamesian metric fails to adjust for expansion). He never won an MVP award (his top single-season WARP total of 6.8 isn't quite MVP territory), and while he did place in the top 10 in the voting in six straight seasons (1989-1994), he only cracked the top five in 1993. JAWS-wise, that stretch of six-win seasons still isn't enough for him to measure up to the average Hall of Famer on peak score, and he's even further below the standard on career WARP. The shape of his JAWS line is very similar to that of Tony Perez (59.0/41.3/50.2), but that particular Doggie had five pennants, two rings, and a more famous dynasty to his name. The guess here is that he'll fall far short, but linger on the ballot for a long time. (Jay Jaffe)
|2010-01-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Jay, thanks for the chat. Tyler Kepner in yesterday's NYT handicapped the HOF choices, in which he made reference to stat-based criteria, but he remains confoundingly lukewarm on Tim Raines (in my opinion, the highest impact player on the ballot), yet high on Fred McGriff. While I agree with you that McGriff is not an overwhelming candidate (please don't tell Bill James, who loved him), he has a case, but so does Raines, of an order of magnitude several notches greater than McGriff. And Kepner continues the patronizing commentary on Bert Blyleven. You can tell where my vote would go, but I cannot understand the lukewarm response to Raines. When will these guys learn? |
(BeplerP from New York, NY)
|I don't know exactly how Kepner voted (or if he even has a ballot) but I think you're in danger of mistaking his opinion of those players' cases for his assessment of their chances in this year's voting, at least when it comes to Raines.
When will the voters learn? Some of them may never change their views on guys like Raines and Blyleven whom the statheads like us hold dear. The best we can hope for is that newer generations who come to the question with open minds can be swayed by the preponderance of evidence in their favor. (Jay Jaffe)
|2010-01-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)||I'd call this good news for Bert. I was worried he'd stagnate around 62%. do you have the % of the vote for Edgar, Raines and Barry? They don't have it on espn.com. Thanks.|
(collins from greenville nc)
|539 ballots, five blanks, Andre Dawson 420 (77.9%), Bert Blyleven 400 (74.2%), Roberto Alomar 397 (73.7%), Jack Morris 282 (52.3%), Barry Larkin 278 (51.6%), Lee Smith 255 (47.3%), Edgar Martinez 195 (36.2%), Tim Raines 164 (30.4%), Mark McGwire 128 (23.7%), Alan Trammell 121 (22.4%), Fred McGriff 116 (21.5%), Don Mattingly 87 (16.1%), Dave Parker 82 (15.2%), Dale Murphy 63 (11.7%), Harold Baines 33 (6.1%), Andres Galarraga 22 (4.1%), Robin Ventura 7 (1.3%), Ellis Burks 2 (0.4%), Eric Karros 2 (0.4%), Kevin Appier 1 (0.2%), Pat Hentgen 1 (0.2%), David Segui 1 (0.2%), Mike Jackson 0, Ray Lankford 0, Shane Reynolds 0, Todd Zeile 0.
Segui gets his vote. Baines remains on life support thanks to the persistence of a stubborn few. Karros receives more votes than he had All-Star appearances. (Jay Jaffe)
|2009-08-04 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Think Canseco is telling the truth when he says a juicer is already in the Hall of Fame?|
(Greg from Des Moines)
|My little brother was kidding me at the park a couple of months ago: "The thing about the steroids scandal is, Jose Canseco?--complete vindicated." Given how much the worm's turned on the perception front, do we really want to say he's not telling the truth? If there is one already in, that might be the right sort of tonic to those who on the one hand seem to noisily against certain players for the Hall, but then seem to be notably silent about Fred McGriff. And while it's easy to get overly worked up about slippery slopes, if McGriff's in and Rice is in but Keith Hernandez or Tim Raines isn't, is this really just "the Hall of People Who Didn't Use a Few of Our Least Favorite Substances, but Not All of Them, Insofar as We Know." (Christina Kahrl)|
|2009-03-30 18:30:00 (link to chat)||Jim Rice - Hall of Famer?|
(john from chicago)
|Before I answer, let me acknowledge that (a) Jim Rice was my favorite player growing up, and (b) I'm a "big Hall" kind of guy.
With that context, I disagree with what seems to be the prevailing sabermetric opinion, including here at BP, that Rice was obviously unworthy as a HOF selection. I don't think he's a no-brainer Hall of Famer, but I think he has a legitimate argument.
Rice's case is obviously one built on peak value, not career length. Also, the argument has been that he is less valuable according to sabermetric models than how he was regarded at the time. His OBP, home park, double-play totals, and positional adjustments are counterbalanced by the notion that he was the most "feared" hitter or his day. But how do you actually assess how "feared" he was, and how that reputation played out in his peak value.
I actually did some work on this back when the election was on people's minds. Rice had 6 Top 10 finishes in the MVP voting.
Among players with exactly 6 Top 10 finishes, 11 are in the HOF, 6 are active or too recent, and only 4 are not in the Hall (Vern Stephens, Dave Parker, Andres Galarraga, Fred McGriff). Even among those with just 5 such finishes, the ratio is 17 HOF, 6 not HOF, 5 active. There's a reasonable case that players with Rice-like peaks get into the Hall about 2/3rd of the time.
Of course, all of Rice's Top 10 finishes were in fact Top 5 finishes. All of the players with 6 such rankings are in the Hall (4) or obviously qualified barring PED-externalities (Frank Thomas, Albert Pujols, A-Rod). Of those with exactly 5 Top 5 MVP years, only Pete Rose and Dave Parker aren't in the Hall or active.
Sorry for taking so much time to answer this one, but I think Rice looks better through contemporary views than through a modern analytical lens, and I don't think it's silly to consider that perspective. (Keith Woolner)
|2008-12-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Will, it seems that Teixeira will surely sign a long contract, maybe even 8 or 10 years. Does he seem like a good bet to provide solid value over the life of that contract, particularly the last couple seasons? |
(Phil from NJ)
|NFL.com ads on BP? That's a bit odd looking ...
Ok, it's impossible to project 10 years out. Three is tough. Without the PECOTA comps, I go to BRef. There, you start seeing comp names like Willie McCovey, Jeff Bagwell, Fred McGriff and if you want a downside, Glenn Davis. All are pretty good physical comps, so that's a plus.
McCovey was a HOFer and good until 37, with a nice peak through age-33, so getting those years of Teixeira cover most of an 8 year deal.
Bagwell has a similar career path with a bit steeper of a drop due to the shoulder. Still, if you'd signed him to a big deal at age-28, you wouldn't have been unhappy.
Davis had a HUGE dropoff and was out of the game at 32, so there's your worst-case.
It's McGriff who I think is most comparable. Really good through 31, then good enough to be an All-Star for four more years. Worth $20 million a year? Not for the whole contract, but you don't kick yourself for doing it. For Teixeira, I wonder if the off-field value holds as much as we think for Baltimore (where he could be a huge difference maker in a lineup with Markakis and Wieters) or for Washington (where they're gonna stink no matter what and he could end up A-Rodding by the middle of the deal). (Will Carroll)
|2008-09-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)||With the Jays on the noggin, who's going to be the first player into the HoF with a Blue Jays cap?|
(Aaron from YYZ)
|Rickey Henderson? Fred McGriff? Lyle Overbay? Maybe a successful VC campaign for Dave Stieb?
That's a stumper. I honestly don't know the answer. (Jay Jaffe)
|2008-06-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)||And don't forget the Yankees' own "Attorney General," Alberto Gonzalez! Now that I think of it, did you coin that one? Or maybe it was Pete Abe?|
(G-MOTA from Bumpus, MA)
|I think, like Fred McGriff, "The Crime Dog," that was an example of convergent evolution. I think Pete Abe and I started doing that at roughly the same time. With McGriff, I remember calling him the Crime Dog long before I saw it in the media anywhere, but I was 15 and not writing anywhere but my school paper, so I doubt it got much further than Mrs. Futterman's homeroom. It just must have been obvious to a number of people at the same time.
PS: I made up Mrs. Futterman, homeroom teacher/bondage freak. (Steven Goldman)
No BP Roundtables have mentioned this guy.