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2019 Preseason Forecast
Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET
|2012-01-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Is there any current/foreseeable future candidate that you think is not statistically deserving, but that you would like to see inducted anyway?|
(John from DC)
|Though I can't mount strong JAWS-based arguments for them, I wouldn't put up a fuss if Bernie Williams, Jorge Posada and Andy Pettitte all made it into the Hall. (Jay Jaffe's Hall of Fame Special)|
|2012-01-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)||I'm not a New Yorker, but I have no problem with Jorge Posada in the Hall. What do you think? |
(Tim from Grand Rapids)
|Tune in tomorrow at BP and at Clubhouse Confidential (yup) and you'll find out exactly what I think! (Jay Jaffe's Hall of Fame Special)|
|2011-09-06 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Will the Yankees seriously consider giving Montero at bats in the post season?|
(SaberTJ from Cleveland, OH)
|If he keeps hitting like he did yesterday, I think so. You know, as much as Jorge Posada has looked dead this year, he's hitting .271/.347/.463 against right-handers. Big home-park bias there (.290/.360/.491). He's been useless against lefties/on the road, but there IS some life there. Oddly enough, he had been a better hitter from the right side from throughout his career. (Steven Goldman)|
|2011-06-21 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Does Jesus Montero get his shot this year (pre September)? If not, is the Yankees starting DH in April of 2012?|
(Jay from Madison)
|If he does, it's going to be because he starts hitting and forces the issue a bit. He's not hitting very well at the moment, and the Yankees aren't going to force Jorge Posada out to make room for a guy who struggling unless he is absolutely terrible himself. Also, keep Jorge Vazquez on the radar if the Yankees do ultimately decide they need a new DH. He's hit 20 HRs so far at Triple-A this year. More likely we see Montero in 2012. (Derek Carty)|
|2011-05-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Steve,
2 questions. 1) What are the odds the Yanks trade Montero? (would you?)
2) Favorite flavor of Big League Chew (or any other bubblegum if you arent a BLC guy)?|
(dtisch30 from Ithaca)
|The chances seem pretty good, because Russell Martin is playing very well and if you don't view Montero as a catcher either because he can't do it or the position is occupied, he's very tough to fit on the diamond for the Yankees, short of their reducing Jorge Posada's role--and maybe they do that as a trade showcase down the line if Posada doesn't heat up in a big way... I haven't been a big chewing gum guy in years, but one that I sort of miss--do they still make this?--is Gator Gum, the Gatorade flavored stuff. It was SO sour, putting a piece into your mouth was like biting into a lemon. My mouth is tingling in memory even as a I type this. I'm not sure if it was a pleasant sensation, but it was enjoyable nonetheless. (Steven Goldman)|
|2011-05-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)||What are your thoughts on Jorge Posada at this point? Small sample or entering the Jeter territory you mentioned a few Qs ago?|
(WilliamWilde from Boston, MA)
|It's a small sample and offense is down overall, so it would be hasty to make a firm judgment, but given his age and his aversion to DHing in the past, you have to be nervous. (Steven Goldman)|
|2011-05-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)||By taking himself out of the lineup, didn't Jorge Posada actually give the Yankees a better chance of winning?|
(Dan from New York)
|Not as much as you might think. I'm not convinced that Andruw Jones is a better option. At least, Posada is still taking some walks and hitting with some power --- when he actually hits the ball, that is. (John Perrotto)|
|2011-04-05 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Are you enjoying the opportunity to watch Jorge Posada hit, without having to watch him catch? I am... |
(Rob from Andover, CT)
|Just to follow up on the other Posada question, yes, I am. A lot! I was prepared to dislike Russell Martin, both because he seemed likely to hit like Joe Girardi and block Montero, but he's taken care of the former by hitting and running the bases (as I discussed in today's Broadside, elsewhere on the site) but also being able to move more than one inch in any direction. It's an incredible novelty to see that in a Yankees catcher. Keep in mind, I think Posada is an unrecognized great, maybe a borderline Hall of Famer, but his defense has been difficult to endure the last few years. It's almost subliminal, but I feel more relaxed watching Martin catch. I imagine I will feel the same way when Jeter finally moves/retires, unless they replace him with someone using a walker. (Steven Goldman)|
|2010-10-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Don't you feel like Cashman is going to have to pull a rabbit out of a hat pretty soon too? There is a LOT of offense he is going to have to replace, maybe as soon as next season. |
(Adam from NY)
|One reason why they need to get creative about working Jesus Montero into the lineup next season and not blocking him off with a veteran DH. Folks assume that Jorge Posada will be the primary DH next year, but (A) I don't think he will hit enough to carry the position, at least not in style, (B) if the replacement is a so-called catch-and-throw guy like Cervelli (who wasn't, at least not this year) or, say, re-signing Jose Molina (I have a bad feeling about that), the loss of offense from behind the plate is going to be a bleeding wound that can't be staunched. The best answer might be a Posada-Montero catcher-DH job share and carry Cervelli as your third catcher. You live with the crappy defense like the Red Sox have lived with it with Martinez and Jason Varitek. (Steven Goldman)|
|2010-08-24 14:30:00 (link to chat)||Jorge Posada is a marginal HOF'er based just on his numbers. How much does his sucking at baseball hurt his chances?|
(JG from NY)
|Jeremy Greenhouse, ladies and gentlemen (Robertson and Gardner are mine!). Posada will be an interesting case. His offensive production might be Hall-worthy, but who knows how much the writers will dock him for being an atrocious defender, as well as one of the worst baserunners of all time. I guess his case might partially hinge on how far defensive evaluations of catchers have advanced by the time he's eligible, but given the bat and the championships, his chances are probably pretty good. On the other hand, he and Ted Simmons have almost identical Rbat numbers at Baseball-Reference, so Posada could still be relegated to that just-missed camp. (Ben Lindbergh)|
|2010-07-23 13:00:00 (link to chat)||No need to get down and dirty with JAWS, but how do you see Jorge Posada's Hall chances stacking up? I assume the bat would play, but once we deduct the necessary points for defense and historically bad baserunning, would there be enough left? How much weight have Hall voters historically assigned to the defensive component of catcher performance?|
(Ben from NYC)
|Covered Posada a few times, it's one that inevitably comes up; most recently I wrote about him in the context of Joe Mauer (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10380). He's gotta keep hitting for a couple of years, still.
Interestingly enough, our defensive system showed him at +23 coming into the year, where the average Hall catcher is +69. The evidence suggests the voters do value defense when it comes to their Hall backstops; tack 100 FRAA onto Ted Simmons (who's at -24) and he's probably in. (Jay Jaffe)
|2010-07-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)||How reasonable should our expectations be for Volquez and the other Zimmerman upon their returning to action? |
(lyndon from Forsaken, OH)
|Someone traded me Jordan Zimmermann ($1 Zimmermann!) in exchange for Jorge Posada, who I was not going to keep. I couldn't hit accept fast enough (I took over a rebuilding keeper league--Posada was kept specifically to do something like this).
I'm not sure if he'll be great in 2010--especially since he may be out until September, but if you're in a keeper league he's a guy worth looking at. Volquez has great stuff but has been a bit overrated because of his first-half performance in his rookie season. I think he'll be good upon his return, but the idea people have in their head of what he is capable of seems distorted to me. (Marc Normandin)
|2010-03-10 18:00:00 (link to chat)||Any big plans this weekend?|
(Miguel Montero from PHX)
|Well Miguel, it's funny you should ask, because I'm actually headed to Chi-town this weekend for the annual draft in the Strat-o-Matic league in which I partake, and it just so happens that with my 4th overall pick in the draft and my dire need for a catcher (thanks, Dioner Navarro and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, really!) you and Jorge Posada keep popping up as potential choices. (Eric Seidman)|
|2009-08-19 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Jay, given his excellent 2009 season as the great oxymoron (that would be "38-year-old catcher"), what are Jorge Posada's HoF prospects looking like?|
(kradec from Da Bronx)
|Most asked JAWS question of the year. I took a look here a couple months back. As solid as his current season has been, it only projects out to 4.0 WARP -- he'll need another two seasons of similar caliber to reach the standard. Even then, from a traditional standpoint, if he winds up short of 2,000 hits and 300 homers he's got an uphill battle ahead of him. (Jay Jaffe)|
|2009-04-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Opening day catcher for the NYY in 2010 will be ______________|
(DanLong from NY)
|Jorge Posada. (Joe Sheehan)|
|2009-03-03 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Marc,
Who would you take if the best catching options left were Bengie Molina or Jorge Posada?|
(Paul from Miami,OH)
|Posada. PECOTA is overstating his decline a bit, given he missed with an injury last year. He may not be the Posada of old, but Molina isn't the greatest catcher around either. (Marc Normandin)|
|2009-02-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Jorge Posada's shoulder is probably the biggest question for the Yanks (that, and CF) this season. Do you think he will return to form (something resembling his career averages, with some normal age-related decline and less games played than in the past)? Or do you have a less rosy view?|
(Rob from CT)
|I think there's a decent chance of the former, but there's a LOT of risk. Knowing that he really can't DH is the big issue now, though I'd push Matsui aside for Posada if that's the tradeoff. He's definitely going to be one of the guys I'm watching a lot in Spring Training. Or rather, having him watched ... I wish I was in Tampa! (Will Carroll)|
|2009-01-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)||The thought that Jorge Posada (37 years old and coming off *shoulder* surgery) is being counted on to be the Yankees' regular catcher seems laughable to me. Is the joke on me?|
(ekanenh from Capital City)
|The 37 isn't the worry that the shoulder is. I think they intend to C/DH him as much as possible. It's *this year* that's tough, since with Damon/Matsui needing some DH time as well, Girardi will have to juggle things well to make the lineup work. One interesting thing is that the Yankees are moving to a new stadium and will have a new training room and rehab facilities. There's a small positive effect for teams that have done this in the past. (Will Carroll)|
|2008-11-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Hi, Steve. You've mentioned trading Nady several times in this chat. What are some of the more plausible trades that you see? Do you think the need for a backup catcher supersedes the Yankees getting mediocre pitching prospects in deal?
(Joe from Brooklyn)
|With Francisco Cervelli healthy, the Yankees don't seem too invested in acquiring another catcher, which is shortsighted, because there are no guarantees on Jorge Posada, Jose Molina killed them like an assassin in the night, and Cervelli won't hit. I don't know what the market for Nady is, but he should be at the height of his value right now. He'd be a heck of a reserve/250-350 at-bat guy if the Yankees could be disciplined about that, but maybe Nady can do more for them by bringing someone else in trade. (Steven Goldman)|
|2008-11-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)||What are the Red Sox plans at the catcher position. The more time that passes, the more I believe Varitek will make a push to re-sign with the Red Sox at a hometown discount. As frustrating as it was to watch him attempt to tread water at the dish, wouldn't it serve the Sox well if they could lock up Tek to provide tutelage to his successor? Is Kottaras a legitimate candidate or is it worth it to trade Bowden/Buchholz to aquire Teagarden/Salty?|
(nmhesketh from Cambridge)
|Having watched Joe Girardi "tutor" Jorge Posada right out of his prime while hitting into a double play roughly every other at bat, I'm pretty down on the idea of tutelage. When in sports did anyone learn by watching? Let's let the coaches be coaches and the players be players. When the Yankees wanted to make Yogi Berra into a better catcher, they hired Bill Dickey to (as Yogi put it) "learn me everything he knows." They didn't play Dickey in front of him... I think the Sox will need Bowden and Buchholz too much to deal them off for catching help. (Steven Goldman)|
|2008-10-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)||The Yankees need to pray that Jorge Posada's shoulder would hold up next year, what's the outlook?
who's a bigger injury risk, CC or Peavy?
(Yu-Hsing Chen from Taiwan)
|Posada should be fine, but there's questions about his age and long term ability to stay at the position. All of the talk about Teixeira has been ignoring the possibility that Posada has to move there or DH. Signing Teixeira limits the flexibility. They will need better backups. Not sure what they have in the system.
CC or Peavy? Pretty equivalent. (Will Carroll)
|2008-10-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Last year Jorge Posada had a great year, and Russell Martin was the hot name while Joe Mauer suffered from a hernia and his batting average dropped 60 points, although he had a tremendous defensive season. Has he now regained the reputation as the game's best catcher?|
(Wendy from Madrid)
|Forget reputation, he is the best all-around catcher and should be considered for MVP. Mauer's a guy who I would have on the very short list of "guys to build a franchise around." (Will Carroll)|
|2008-09-08 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Most unmovable contract in the non-Zito division? Luis Castillo? Johjima? |
(paulbellows from Calgary)
|Since Mike Hampton got traded a few years back, I don't consider anything unmovable, except maybe Prince Fielder in front of a platter of veggie burgers. It's all a matter of how many years you can wait and/or how much money the team can swallow. Helton's owed $57M on his contract through 2011 so that would be pretty difficult to move. The Yankees have a trio that they'd be hard-pressed to trade (Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez) although in the cases of Jeter and Posada, that's as much for non-baseball reasons as for baseball reasons.
But if there's a will, I think anyone could be traded, even Zito. It'd take a ton of creativity and probably a few teams collaborating to disperse the cash (or maybe one big team, like the Yankees, getting something of value along with Zito). But it can be done. (Derek Jacques)
|2008-06-17 15:00:00 (link to chat)||Jay: It seems to me that the statistical 'cliff' that potential HOFers can fall off of is much higher than for normal players. Maybe the evidence is more anecdotal than actual, but I seem to remember many of those players (guys like Knoblauch and Rice leap to mind instantly) when I think of players of my era that were 'destined' for the HOF. Does the wide gulf between normal and HOF-levels of performance play any part in calculating future HOF worthiness of active players?|
(sodbuster from Wagner)
|Well, it's certainly a longer way down from being very good to so craptastic that you have to hang up your spikes in your mid-30s as both Rice and Chuckie Knobs did, and it tends to generate more coverage as to "what went wrong" though in fact these players were at least exceptional for some period of their careers.
But you're onto something with your question. Predicting Hallworthiness among active players is a tricky business. Even a great and useful predictive tool like PECOTA isn't all that helpful, because HOF caliber players tend to continue outstripping their projections late into their careers. Guys in their mid-30s who might have a shot may still need to hit their 75 percentile projections or above year after year in order to make a great case for themselves. Here I'm thinking of perennial All-Stars like Chipper Jones (who I think will make it) and Jorge Posada (I hope but don't think he will) as well as the fall-off-the-table cases like Carlos Delgado and Jim Edmonds. (Jay Jaffe)
|2008-06-17 15:00:00 (link to chat)||JAWS questions!
Rafael Palmeiro? (objectively)
Gary Sheffield? (ditto)
My man Jorge Posada? (You knew it was coming...)|
(DrDave from Alexandria VA)
|Dr. Dave, glad you could stop by.
Very quickly, Palmeiro does have the numbers (138.4 career, 68.9 peak, 103.7 JAWS) versus a standard of 138.4/68.9/103.7 for HOF 1Bs.
Sheffield is in trouble in that given his injuries, he's not likely to add much to his numbers (117.2/63.5/90.4) which are a bit short of the Hall standard for RFs (125.0/68.7/96.8).
Vizquel I get asked about rather frequently. I covered this last year (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=332), and since then the distance between him (79.3 overall) and the SS standard (96.6) has actually increased.
Posada has the peak (80.4/62.6/71.5 versus a standard of 98.9/60.8/79.9) and if he can stay healthy I think he's got a shot. But as this year has already shown, staying healthy will present a major challenge as he approaches 40. (Jay Jaffe)
|2008-06-04 16:00:00 (link to chat)||In your last article you said that Posey isn't a true impact player...correct me if I'm wrong but a catcher that plays GG defense hits 20 HRs and takes 75 walks a season he'll be around .280/.380/.480 with GG defense, that's a WARP around eight or so; which will make him most likely a top five catcher in five years behind McCann, Soto, and Martin perhaps Wieters, s how is that not an impact player? |
(ChrisLDuncan from Sioux City, IA)
|You might be right. I was talking to our very own Steven Goldstein about this, and he said, "Isn't that pretty much Jorge Posada." (Kevin Goldstein)|
|2008-05-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Why do I keep reading about how much trouble the Yankees are in? Hasn't this been the story for three years running now? Slow start, fast finish. Do you see anything to make you think this year will be different from 2005-2007?|
(Joe from Tewksbury, MA)
|Yes. Everybody in the lineup, including Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada is a year older, and with the exception of Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano, they're a year further away from their statistical primes, to say nothing about the fact that Cano looks pretty lost right now. The bench is weak even for a team that's done poorly in that area in the recent past. Seriously, I'd take Chili Davis, Darryl Strawberry, Luis Sojo and Ron Coomer circa 2008 over some of the stiffs they have lying around.
There's that, plus a weak pitching staff where the back of the rotation has been a thorough disaster thus far and the bullpen situation is considered so fragile that there's actually a question about whether they'll move Joba Chamberlain to a starting role this year. Add to that the fact that the AL East has gotten tougher and I think there's no longer any guarantee that the Yankees will contend, let alone win the division.
The other thing in play is the new manager. Through the early season debacles of the last few years, Torre was able to absorb the front office's slings and arrows and still give off a sense of calm confidence that things would eventually turn around. Girardi is protected from the barbs of Hank Steinbrenner at the moment -- his focus appears to be on forcing Brian Cashman out -- but Little Joe is the kind of guy who seems more likely to go Billy Martin bonkers as things get worse, and I don't think that's going to help. (Jay Jaffe)
|2008-04-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Do you think Jorge Posada will ever catch 120 times in a season again?|
(Tommy from OPS, FL)
|Yeah, he's got four years to do it and this shoulder problem is like an Indy Car having a flat tire. Everything else is working great, but it can't work without that in place. The shoulder injury is relatively minor, but if he can't throw, he can't catch. A more interesting question is whether he should DH; over the next four years, he might be better off at 1B/DH. (Will Carroll)|
|2008-02-29 13:00:00 (link to chat)||Who is the best overall baserunner on the Yankees?|
(Rob from Andover, CT)
|In 2007 I had Johnny Damon on top at +7 runs with Alex Rodriguez next at +5.2. Derek Jeter usually does well in baserunning and was at +2.4 and Hidecki Matsui was at +2.3.
On the flip side, as usual Jorge Posada was last at -7.6 and Jason Giambi was at -3.5. Robinson Cano also did poorly at -2.2. Those three were also on the bottom in 2006 with Bernie Williams next.
Melky Cabrera (+2) did well in 2006 as did Bobby Abreu (+1.5) but Damon was tops at +5.6.
Based on past performance I'd have to go with Damon. (Dan Fox)
|2008-02-28 14:00:00 (link to chat)||Do you think Torre will rest Russell Martin more, or is there a chance his legs will fall off on September 16th? I am worried that his late season collapse will happen again if the Dodgers don't learn how to take care of him.|
(Eddy from Valerie's closet)
|I think Torre's experience in getting reliably good work from Jorge Posada over his career (not to mention his own past days with the tools of ignorance) will save Martin from anything like a Jim Sundberg-style wear-down. (Christina Kahrl)|
|2010-10-06 10:00:00||2010 Playoffs Day One||The price you pay for having an elderly Jorge Posada behind the plate? (Steven Goldman)|
|2010-10-06 10:00:00||2010 Playoffs Day One||90th postseason hit for Jorge Posada. Very cool. (Jesse Behr)|
|2010-07-13 16:30:00||All-Star Game||Tim does Jorge Posada a disservice by not including him in the discussion of possible Yankees HOFers... I guess no one feels that way about Bernie Williams either? (Steven Goldman)|
|2009-10-28 17:00:00||2009 WS Game One||It's surprising just how bad a postseason hitter Jorge Posada has been in his 25 series. He's not Chone Figgins bad, but for ~100 games, he's roughly .235/.350/.390. (Steven Goldman)|
|2009-10-16 13:00:00||NLCS Game Two/ALCS Game One||I wonder if there are people out there that think that Thurman Munson was a better hitter than Jorge Posada. (Steven Goldman)|
|2009-10-15 17:00:00||2009 NLCS Game One (Phillies/Dodgers)||Jonathan (New York): Matt Kemp, star or superstar? |
Star now, superstar if he takes another little hop forward, which is possible given that this was just his age-24 season. It would help if he had a manager that wouldn't let him waste half his season batting in the 6/7/8 spots. I have a lot of respect for Joe Torre in many ways, but in others he reminds me of Richard Mulligan playing Custer in "Little Big Man," making oracular and nonsensical pronouncements about people's jobs ("You are a muleskinner!")that have no basis in reality. In NY, he did it with Jorge Posada, rarely batting him out of the bottom half of the order despite his power and on-base skills. Thus a Posada walk would be followed up something like a Miguel Cairo at-bat. (Steven Goldman)
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A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC
A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC