Biographical

Portrait of Johan Santana

Johan Santana PTwins

Twins Player Cards | Twins Team Audit | Twins Depth Chart

Career Summary
Years G IP W L SV ERA WARP
16 360 2025.7 139 78 1 3.20 54.1
Birth Date3-13-1979
Height6' 0"
Weight210 lbs
Age39 years, 4 months, 9 days
BatsL
ThrowsL
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA- WARP
2000 MIN MLB 30 5 86.0 2 3 0 102 54 64 11 .265 94 10.7 5.7 1.2 6.7 41% .341 .287 1.81 5.34 6.49 110 7.36 141.5 -1.3
2001 MIN MLB 15 4 43.7 1 0 0 50 16 28 6 .265 101 10.3 3.3 1.2 5.8 51% .310 .282 1.51 4.90 4.74 105 5.99 124.1 -0.2
2002 MIN MLB 27 14 108.3 8 6 1 84 49 137 7 .267 95 7.0 4.1 0.6 11.4 36% .298 .228 1.23 2.75 2.99 64 3.06 65.6 3.0
2003 MIN MLB 45 18 158.3 12 3 0 127 47 169 17 .261 99 7.2 2.7 1.0 9.6 31% .270 .226 1.10 3.30 3.07 66 2.98 62.4 4.6
2004 MIN MLB 34 34 228.0 20 6 0 156 54 265 24 .257 100 6.2 2.1 0.9 10.5 42% .250 .194 0.92 3.02 2.61 56 2.55 52.6 8.0
2005 MIN MLB 33 33 231.7 16 7 0 180 45 238 22 .260 97 7.0 1.7 0.9 9.2 41% .262 .212 0.97 2.82 2.87 55 2.33 50.2 8.3
2006 MIN MLB 34 34 233.7 19 6 0 186 47 245 24 .259 104 7.2 1.8 0.9 9.4 42% .269 .209 1.00 3.08 2.77 60 2.70 55.1 7.9
2007 MIN MLB 33 33 219.0 15 13 0 183 52 235 33 .265 95 7.5 2.1 1.4 9.7 40% .271 .237 1.07 3.88 3.33 61 2.27 46.9 8.3
2008 NYN MLB 34 34 234.3 16 7 0 206 63 206 23 .261 94 7.9 2.4 0.9 7.9 44% .274 .233 1.15 3.47 2.53 84 3.27 69.7 5.9
2009 NYN MLB 25 25 166.7 13 9 0 156 46 146 20 .264 95 8.4 2.5 1.1 7.9 38% .280 .247 1.21 3.74 3.13 90 3.72 79.7 3.5
2010 NYN MLB 29 29 199.0 11 9 0 179 55 144 16 .267 89 8.1 2.5 0.7 6.5 37% .272 .241 1.18 3.55 2.98 101 3.70 83.5 3.7
2012 NYN MLB 21 21 117.0 6 9 0 117 39 111 17 .252 96 9.0 3.0 1.3 8.5 35% .301 .272 1.33 4.12 4.85 103 3.70 84.8 2.0
CareerMLB3602842025.713978117265671988220.262967.72.51.08.839%.276.2321.133.473.20753.1967.554.1

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR oppTAv PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP TAv WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA-
1997 AUB A- 1 1 4.0 0 0 0 1 6 5 0 .000 2.2 13.5 0.0 11.2 0% .125 .000 1.75 5.52 2.25 0 0.00 0.0
1998 QUD A 2 1 6.7 0 1 0 14 3 6 1 .000 18.8 4.0 1.3 8.1 0% -1.300 .000 2.54 5.03 9.40 0 0.00 0.0
1998 AUB A- 15 15 86.7 7 5 0 81 21 88 9 .000 8.4 2.2 0.9 9.1 0% -.610 .000 1.18 3.88 4.36 0 0.00 0.0
1999 GRL A 27 26 160.3 8 8 0 162 55 150 14 .000 9.1 3.1 0.8 8.4 0% -.676 .000 1.35 4.03 4.66 0 0.00 0.0
2000 MIN MLB 30 5 86.0 2 3 0 102 54 64 11 .265 94 10.7 5.7 1.2 6.7 41% .341 .287 1.81 5.34 6.49 110 7.36 141.5
2000 Mag Wnt 9 4 35.7 2 2 1 27 11 29 1 .000 6.8 2.8 0.3 7.3 0% -.634 .000 1.06 3.25 2.02 0 0.00 0.0
2001 MIN MLB 15 4 43.7 1 0 0 50 16 28 6 .265 101 10.3 3.3 1.2 5.8 51% .310 .282 1.51 4.90 4.74 105 5.99 124.1
2001 Mag Wnt 8 8 46.0 2 2 0 38 15 43 1 .000 7.4 2.9 0.2 8.4 0% -.627 .000 1.15 2.67 1.57 0 0.00 0.0
2002 MIN MLB 27 14 108.3 8 6 1 84 49 137 7 .267 95 7.0 4.1 0.6 11.4 36% .298 .228 1.23 2.75 2.99 64 3.06 65.6
2002 EDM AAA 11 9 48.7 5 2 0 37 27 75 7 .000 6.8 5.0 1.3 13.9 0% .291 .000 1.31 3.90 3.14 0 0.00 0.0
2003 MIN MLB 45 18 158.3 12 3 0 127 47 169 17 .261 99 7.2 2.7 1.0 9.6 31% .270 .226 1.10 3.30 3.07 66 2.98 62.4
2004 MIN MLB 34 34 228.0 20 6 0 156 54 265 24 .257 100 6.2 2.1 0.9 10.5 42% .250 .194 0.92 3.02 2.61 56 2.55 52.6
2005 MIN MLB 33 33 231.7 16 7 0 180 45 238 22 .260 97 7.0 1.7 0.9 9.2 41% .262 .212 0.97 2.82 2.87 55 2.33 50.2
2006 MIN MLB 34 34 233.7 19 6 0 186 47 245 24 .259 104 7.2 1.8 0.9 9.4 42% .269 .209 1.00 3.08 2.77 60 2.70 55.1
2006 VEN wor 2 2 8.1 0 2 0 5 3 10 1 .000 5.6 3.3 1.1 11.1 0% .200 .000 0.99 2.30 2.22 0 0.00 0.0
2007 MIN MLB 33 33 219.0 15 13 0 183 52 235 33 .265 95 7.5 2.1 1.4 9.7 40% .271 .237 1.07 3.88 3.33 61 2.27 46.9
2008 NYN MLB 34 34 234.3 16 7 0 206 63 206 23 .261 94 7.9 2.4 0.9 7.9 44% .274 .233 1.15 3.47 2.53 84 3.27 69.7
2009 NYN MLB 25 25 166.7 13 9 0 156 46 146 20 .264 95 8.4 2.5 1.1 7.9 38% .280 .247 1.21 3.74 3.13 90 3.72 79.7
2010 NYN MLB 29 29 199.0 11 9 0 179 55 144 16 .267 89 8.1 2.5 0.7 6.5 37% .272 .241 1.18 3.55 2.98 101 3.70 83.5
2011 SLU A+ 2 2 5.0 0 0 0 5 0 5 0 .260 114 9.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 64% .357 .193 1.00 1.97 1.80 86 2.59 56.6
2012 NYN MLB 21 21 117.0 6 9 0 117 39 111 17 .252 96 9.0 3.0 1.3 8.5 35% .301 .272 1.33 4.12 4.85 103 3.70 84.8
2012 BRO A- 1 1 3.0 0 0 0 1 1 3 0 .283 87 3.0 3.0 0.0 9.0 29% .143 .123 0.67 2.33 0.00 96 4.05 93.3

Plate Discipline

YEAR PITCHES ZONE_RT SWING_RT CONTACT_RT Z_SWING_RT O_SWING_RT Z_CONTACT_RT O_CONTACT_RT SW_STRK_RT
2008 3462 0.5335 0.4925 0.7601 0.6502 0.3121 0.8102 0.6409 0.2399
2009 2433 0.5524 0.5228 0.7783 0.6577 0.3563 0.8303 0.6598 0.2217
2010 2962 0.5371 0.4946 0.7980 0.6436 0.3217 0.8506 0.6757 0.2020
2012 1935 0.4398 0.4610 0.7388 0.6592 0.3054 0.8271 0.5891 0.2612
Career107920.52190.49430.77080.65170.32350.82880.64540.2292

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation
2014-06-05 2014-06-05 On-Alr 0 0 - Ankle Surgery Achilles Tendon Rupture -
2014-06-02 - 60-DL - - Left Shoulder Recovery From Surgery Retear of Anterior Capsule 2013-04-02
2014-04-02 2014-06-02 Minors 61 0 Left Shoulder Recovery From Surgery Retear of Anterior Capsule 2013-04-02
2013-03-22 2013-09-30 60-DL 192 162 Left Shoulder Surgery Retear of Anterior Capsule 2013-04-02 -
2013-02-15 2013-03-26 Camp 39 0 - Low Back Recovery From Inflammation - -
2012-08-18 2012-10-04 15-DL 47 43 - Low Back Inflammation - -
2012-07-21 2012-08-11 15-DL 21 20 Right Ankle Sprain - -
2012-07-07 2012-07-15 DTD 8 4 Right Ankle Sprain - -
2011-08-04 2011-08-04 On-Alr 0 0 Left Shoulder Fatigue - -
2011-03-22 2011-09-29 60-DL 191 162 Left Shoulder Recovery From Surgery Anterior Capsule 2010-09-14
2011-02-27 2011-03-22 Camp 23 0 Left Shoulder Recovery From Surgery Anterior Capsule 2010-09-14
2010-09-03 2010-10-04 DTD 31 28 Left Shoulder Surgery Anterior Capsule 2010-09-14
2009-08-21 2009-10-05 15-DL 45 41 Left Elbow Surgery Bone Chips 2009-09-01
2009-06-14 2009-06-14 DTD 0 0 Left Fingers Blister Middle Finger Bothering Since May -
2009-02-26 2009-03-12 Camp 14 0 Left Elbow Inflammation Triceps -
2008-10-01 2008-10-01 Off 0 0 Left Knee Surgery Meniscus 2008-10-01
2008-06-06 2008-06-06 DTD 0 0 Left Shoulder Contusion Batted Ball -
2006-08-20 2006-08-20 DTD 0 0 Left Fingers Blister Middle Finger -
2004-04-06 2004-04-06 DTD 0 0 Left Forearm Spasms -
2003-10-16 2003-10-16 Off 0 0 Left Elbow Surgery Bone Chips 2003-10-16
2003-09-30 2003-09-30 DTD 0 0 Right Cramp -
2003-08-30 2003-08-30 DTD 0 0 Left Thigh Soreness Hamstring -
2001-07-07 2001-09-21 60-DL 76 62 Left Elbow Strain Partial Tear Flexor-pronator Mass -

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2014 BAL $
2013 NYN $25,500,000
2012 NYN $24,000,000
2011 NYN $22,500,000
2010 NYN $21,000,000
2009 NYN $20,000,000
2008 NYN $19,000,000
2007 MIN $13,000,000
2006 MIN $8,750,000
2005 MIN $4,750,000
2004 MIN $1,600,000
2003 MIN $335,000
2001 MIN $212,500
2000 MIN $200,000
YearsDescriptionSalary
13 yrPrevious$160,847,500
13 yrTotal$160,847,500

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
14 y 69 dPeter Greenberg1 year (2014)

Details
  • 1 year (2014). Signed by Baltimore as a free agent 3/4/14. Salary of $3M in majors. Roster bonuses: $0.25M for 30 days on active 25-man roster. $0.35M for 60 days. $0.5M for 90 days. $1M for 100 days. Performance bonuses: $0.25M for 5 games started. $0.35M for 10 GS. $0.5M for 15 GS. $0.75M for 20 GS. $0.15M each for 21, 22 GS. $0.2M each for 23, 24 GS. $0.4M for 25 GS. May opt out of contract if not on Major League roster 5/30/14. $0.1M payment if released before 3/25/14. Contract selected by Baltimore 6/2/14.
  • 6 years/$137.5M (2008-13), plus 2014 club option. Signed extension with NY Mets 2/1/08 as part of trade from Minnesota (waived no-trade clause). 08:$19M, 09:$20M, 10:$21M, 11:$22.5M, 12:$24M, 13:$25.5M, 14:$25M club option, $5.5M buyout. $5M annually deferred. Option may become guaranteed based on IP, finish in award voting. NY Mets declined 2014 option 11/1/13.
  • 4 years/$39.75M (2005-08). Signed extension with Minnesota 2/05 (avoided arbitration, $6.8M-$5M). 05:$5.5M, 06:$9M, 07:$12M, 08:$13.25M. Award bonus: $25,000 for All-Star. Limited no-trade protection for 2007-08 (may block deals to 10 clubs). May become full no-trade protection for 2008 based on performance.
  • 1 year/$1.6M (2004). Lost arbitration with Minnesota 2/04 ($2.45M-$1.6M).
  • 1 year/$0.335M (2003). Re-signed by Minnesota.
  • Acquired by Minnesota in trade from Florida after being selected from Houston in Rule 5 draft 12/99.
  • Signed by Houston 1995 as an amateur free agent from Venezuela.

BP Annual Player Comments

The rest of this card is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber? Click here for a free card so you can see what's missing.

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

BP Articles

Click here to see articles tagged with Johan Santana

BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2018-06-28 13:00:00 (link to chat)I remember when the fantasy magazines debated Johan Santana as the #1 overall pick. Now we're in an age of pitchers, with many going in the first round. Would you take Scherzer or Verlander as #1 next year?
(Ryan from WI)
I'm still not sold on Verlander fully keeping this up. I'll take the guy who's been more consistently elite for the last several years. But would I take Scherzer over Trout? Not quite. Give me Trout and the #5 or #6 SP (Sale, Cole?), versus Scherzer and, say, Springer or Blackmon. (Kevin Jebens)
2016-09-23 12:30:00 (link to chat)What's the O/U for future Jered Weaver MLB innings? Additionally, who throws more MLB IP the next five years: Jered Weaver, Johan Santana, or Lucas Harrell?
(Lion from Wherever astronauts are)
Oh man, I was just thinking the other day about one of my very first BP pieces, which considered who would get more innings over the next five years, Scott Kazmir (out of baseball entirely at the time), Jamie Moyer (46 or so and recovering from TJ) and Mark Prior (pitching well in Double-A). I thought about redoing it but couldn't decide on the three pitchers to debate. This isn't quite right, but Weaver's a good starting point.

Most likely number is 0, at maybe 20 percent; but the over/under I'd set is probably 145. (Sam Miller)
2016-05-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)Where is the best fit for Tim Lincecum? With the recent Danks DFA, I would be intrigued if the White Sox took a chance on him, though they do have options in Johnson/Turner/Gonzalez in AAA.
(Matt from Chicago)
I don't have the necessary information to answer the question, y'know? Whoever likes what they see the most at his showcase should sign him. I suspect he's going to be a low-impact addition, wherever he goes. The new Johan Santana! (not the good way) (Matthew Trueblood)
2013-10-07 18:00:00 (link to chat)Confirm/Deny: It's the changeup's world and we are just living in it.
(Confirm/Deny from Watching the game)
The change-up is an underrated asset. Johan Santana opened my eyes to this reality in his all-too-short prime. Confirmed. (Mike Gianella)
2012-12-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)Are you a believe in finish to the season for Carlos Gomez? With the organization planning on letting him play, it seems there could be some value there.
(Frederick from The Hills)
He's delivering on the promise that made him a top prospect and the centerpiece of the Johan Santana trade so I think it is believable. The batting average is perpetually at risk because of his strikeouts and lack of walks, but with playing time he is a power-speed combo worth targeting. (Paul Sporer)
2012-07-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)East Coast question from the midwest. Over the second half how far will R.A. Dickey and Johan Santana fall off from their first half performances?
(wauzer from Milwaukee)
Well, I don't think Santana will throw another no-hitter. And I doubt Dickey will throw another one-hitter.

Santana has posted a 5.67 ERA in seven starts since the no-no, and batters are hitting .291/.345/.544 against him over that period. He is better than that, but I think the real concern is workload. How many more innings can he pitch after sitting out all of 2011?

As for Dickey, sometimes knuckleballers have great years. Joe Niekro in 1982. Charlie Hough in 1985. Tim Wakefield in 1995 and 2002. Dickey seems to be having one of those years, as he did in 2010, but with a much higher (and more baffling) strikeout rate. How far will he fall? On the one hand, he has allowed five runs in three of his last four starts, so maybe it's already starting. On the other, he allowed eight in his third start of the year and then went 9-0 with a 1.21 ERA over his next 11. I don't know where his pitches are headed, I don't know where his season is headed. (Geoff Young)
2012-02-02 15:00:00 (link to chat)Over/Under: Johan Santana 10 wins?
(Tony Danza from Italy)
When it comes to wins I always play the under. Will he be healthy? Will he be able to go deep enough into enough games to be in position for wins? Will their offense provide meaningful run support? Will the reconstructed bullpen nail down his leads? Mat Latos had a very strong season last year but only won nine games; Matt Garza won 10 exactly. I'll take the under on Johan. (Cory Schwartz)
2012-01-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)What sort of expectations should be have for Johan Santana this season?
(George from NY)
Tempered ones. His health is a major question mark, and he was in decline even before getting injured, so it's hard to say how good he'll be even if he is healthy. It'll be interesting to see how he looks in Spring Training. (Derek Carty)
2011-09-23 10:00:00 (link to chat)How likely is it that Johan Santana will be i) an effective big league starter and ii) the old Johan Santana next year?
(Behemoth from Scotland)
Not having an exact number, 1) Santana probably will be an effective MLB starter. He will still only be 33 next year and given his talent before the injury will have at least a few years left. 2)He almost certainly will never be 04-06 Santana and is not likely to even be Santa from 2008.

I would expect a slight dropoff from 2010, no longer great but certainly serviceable. (Corey Dawkins)
2011-06-20 14:00:00 (link to chat)Kirby Puckett is what I base that on. And Koufax, too, now that you bring him up. Does JAWS account for people being stopped right in their prime? I'm guessing not, perhaps because there are so few. But are there comparables to Kirby and Doc who didn't make it? I suspect there's just such a strong psychological at play there for voters.
(Richie from Washington)
Puckett had two World Series rings and 10 straight All-star appearances. As good as Halladay is, he doesn't have that.

Now, by considering peak and career, JAWS is built to allow for stopped-in-prime comparisons, and yes, Halladay is above the standard on that front (49.1 peak, with the average SP at 47.7). There aren't a lot of voters basing their decisions on JAWS, though - the great majority are still paying heed to more traditional numbers.

The annals are full of fast-starting pitchers who didn't make the Hall along the lines of Gooden. Denny McLain won his second Cy at 25 and didn't get in. Bret Saberhagen has two Cy Youngs and won't get in. Johan Santana probably won't get in barring a miraculous comeback from shoulder woes. (Jay Jaffe)
2011-05-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is Philip Humber for real? He was a hot prospect for the Mets and ended up in Minnesota for Johan Santana. He never distinguished himself in the minors, but he's off to a great start with the White Sox. Can he sustain this level of performance?
(tlowell5 from Alaska)
He has looked better than expected (someone in the annual threw out a Kyle Davies comp), but I'm not sold that he'll continue to have a .210 BABIP. Once that moves up, the ERA probably will too. (R.J. Anderson)
2011-03-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)Th Phills "Big 3" are 33(halladay),33(oswalt),and 32(lee). Granted they have Cole who is only 28, but with there sacfriced offense how likely do you think it is one gets injured and they regret sacrificing offense for additional pitching. I'm partiucarly worried about Oswalt and Lee, in that order, as far as injuries go.
(Curious from questionland)
How likely, I don't know, but the probably exists that at least one of them gets hurt at some point, because all SP's do eventually. Remember when we though Johan Santana was the model of health for SP's? I don't think they've sacrificed offense for pitching at all -- if healthy (BIG IF) they have a loaded offense at every position -- but clearly this is a team with growing age and health concerns. (Cory Schwartz)
2011-03-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)In an NL-only, would you nominate Johan Santana early, hoping to drain $8-10 (or more) out of the auction or hope he falls to the endgame where he can be had for $3-4?
(Steve from Clearwater, FL)
Well, I generally don't sweat the strategy when it comes to drafting pitchers who will miss half the season after major arm surgery... too many pitchers emerge over the course of the year to make me very interested in drafting someone like Johan in a re-draft league. And, draining even $10 out of the money pool represents less than one-half of one percent of the available budget for the entire league, so you're not really going to move the inflation needle. Bottom line is, I probably wouldn't be the one to name him for bidding, and doubt I'll be involved in the bidding once his name does come up. (Cory Schwartz)
2011-03-02 13:00:00 (link to chat)General roster construction question: you get to the playoffs by fixing up the #5 starter role, but you win the playoffs by fixing up the #1 starter. If you're watching your dollars and being conservative the former makes a lot of sense. Is this part of why Twins and As stuff doesn't work in the playoffs?
(CrisE from St Paul, MN)
I think the Gardenhire Twins are the better example, because they don't have that "guy" at the front of their rotation, and haven't since they handed away Johan Santana for a bag of stale Skittles. But I also think that's only part of it, in each instance, albeit for different reasons. The A's were probably too tactically static on offense to do themselves any favors; for better and worse (with too much elective bunting from Barton), that has changed some. The Twins just don't live up to their "good fundamentals" billing; they're a fairly mediocre defensive team, but finding ways to show up in October without Morneau has made matters considerably worse. (Christina Kahrl)
2010-12-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)Did MLB ruin the Rule 5 Draft by extending the time before minor league players have to be on the 40-man roster before becoming draft eligible? I just can't get excited for whatever mop-up bullpen arm gets selected these last few years.
(Greg from Chicago)
Yes, yes they did. It's easy to see how they feel entitled, since these are their investments, but I'm not really comfortable with a CBA process where the MLBPA was the outfit responsible for surrendering the rights of people they don't even represent. Situational dudes in the pen, and maybe the odd finesse guy picked to help stock a bad rotation, but I don't think we'll be seeing Johan Santana or George Bell again. (Christina Kahrl)
2010-10-14 13:00:00 (link to chat)I have a deep team, so my last cut in my keeper will stink, suck, and hurt. In a deep keeper league, put Johan (he's my 7th best SP considering the injury), Roy Oswalt (was 7th 'til Johan got hury), Torii (my backup CF behind Rasmus), or Beckham (I also own Weeks) back in the pool? Please don't say Beckham. I love him and remember the hype of the spring ever so wistfully.
(Will from Mactaquac)
I'm keeping Beckham in one of my leagues with a deep roster, so I definitely won't be saying him. Johan Santana or Torii Hunter is probably the way to go. Given Santana's injury history I might choose him, just because he'll be the easiest to reacquire next season. (Marc Normandin)
2010-09-15 14:00:00 (link to chat)From casual observation of AL East games it seems that Jose Bautista HR total is just hitting meatballs out of the park with high frequency. Is there a way to calculate bad pitch/HR ratios (maybe using Pitch F/X?)
(E from Indiana)
Yes, certainly. When I used to write for Statistically Speaking, I wrote an article about Johan Santana and how he had surrendered an inordinate amount of home runs on these supposed meatball pitches. PITCHf/x data allows us to track results in specific parts of the zone. But one thing to keep in mind is that taking advantage of these meatballs doesn't necessarily detract from what Bautista has done at all. If we find that the league average HR/bad pitch is 25% and Bautista is at 50%, we don't really know if it means he will plummet next season or if he is just zoned in on those bad pitches. Bautista completely changed his swing and approach, and so 28-34 HR should probably be expected for the next few seasons, but your question is a good one worth exploring, so I will keep it in my queue for offseason research. (Eric Seidman)
2010-09-29 13:00:00 (link to chat)Any thoughts on Johan Santana? I find the thought of his career prospects at this point very depressing.
(Will from Mactaquac)
So do I. The declining velocity and strikeout rate didn't bode well even before we knew about the injury. I'm not sure whether identifying a possible cause for that performance improves his outlook at all, considering the injury, but either way, things don't look great, and that's a shame.

I'm tempted to applaud Brian Cashman for holding onto his prospects and signing Sabathia instead, but then again, the Mets got Santana for Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, and Kevin Mulvey (okay, and Deolis Guerra). The money hurts more. (Ben Lindbergh)
2010-09-13 13:00:00 (link to chat)Do you think that any other active pitcher has a legitimate shot at 300 wins besides Sabathia?
(adamseth7 from philly)
I wouldn't bet against Roy Halladay (166 and counting through his age 33 season), and I think the resurgence of Roy Oswalt (149 through his age 31) puts him back on the map if he can stay in Philadelphia during his next contract, but the past year has been rough on other candidates such as Johan Santana, Andy Pettitte, Jake Peavy, even Jamie Moyer. (Jay Jaffe)
2010-06-18 14:00:00 (link to chat)Given Dan Warthen's diagnosis of Johan Santana's strikeout struggles--that the problem is a bad-but-correctable mechanical habit he developed while pitching injured--can we expect Johan's K rate to improve over the rest of the season, at least back to where it was in '08-'09?
(David from CT)
At least to 08-09 for sure -- he'll never be a 10+ K/9 guy again, but he is still a very, very, very good pitcher. But he's not a 6 K/9 guy. Maybe 7.5-8.0 if Warthen's diagnosis is valid. (Eric Seidman)
2010-06-28 14:00:00 (link to chat)No Ubaldo in the top 5? Not that I'm arguing with the top 5 of Halladay, Timmy, Lee, JJ and Lester. Picking five is difficult; if not impossible.
(johnsond16 from Wherever you find yourself; there you are)
I'm as big an Ubaldo booster as you'll find, been touting him for years as underrated and I'm delighted to see him doing what he's doing. If we're talking 2010 stats, sure he's a top fiver, and might even be the Cy Young winner if he can avoid falling apart in the second half. But if you're taking a larger sample into account, you might want to put guys like Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter ahead of him. Maybe Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez as well.

OK, here's one way of looking at it: 20008-2010 ERA+ leaders, 300 inning mininimum: http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/V8Caz. Ubaldo is 11th behidn all fo the guys listed above plus Johan Santana, who's really starting to show some wear and trending downward. So Ubaldo: top 10 for me unless we're specifically limiting the discussion to 2010 only. (Jay Jaffe)
2010-05-25 13:00:00 (link to chat)John, Johan Santana has not been dominant. His velocity is down and his command off. What are your thoughts going forward? Thanks, Dan
(dandaman from Sea Cliff)
I think the innings and wear of tear of pitching have taken their toll on Santana. He's still good but not the pitcher he once and probably won't be again. (John Perrotto)
2010-04-21 14:00:00 (link to chat)Is it going to be fun to watch Liriano pitch this season? Or extremely painful? I'd love to watch that guy from 2006 pitch a full season.
(Ameer from Bloomington)
Liriano is the M Night Shyamalan of baseball for me. No matter what he does it won't be good enough because fans foresaw the second coming of Johan Santana (Hitchcock; Alfred, not Sterling) in that special rookie year. He has worked hard to get himself back up to full strength, but it's tough to tell what made him so effective in 2006, let alone what he would need to do to repeat some semblance of that level production. PECOTA's calling for a 4.30 ERA and I see no reason to fight that one. So, it might be fun if the expectations were a 5.91 ERA, but it won't be if you're expecting the pre-injury dominance. (Eric Seidman)
2010-02-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)How would you rate in order the following pitchers by overall (short and long term) value? Johan Santana, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Randy Wells, Derek Lowe and Josh Johnson.
(caseyj15 from Medford, OR)
Short term: Santana, Johnson, Beckett, Lester, Lowe, Wells

Long term: Santana, Johnson, Lester, Beckett, Wells, Lowe (Shawn Hoffman)
2010-01-28 14:00:00 (link to chat)What are your thoughts on the Mets roster as it stands now?
(Phil S. from NJ)
It's motivation for people to sign elsewhere, a la Ben Sheets. Jeff Francoeur? Little Sarge? No offense from first base or catcher? A rotation of Johan Santana and the Question Marks? And yet people keep flogging Luis Castillo--of course he took the money. You'd take the money. I'd take the money. He didn't make anyone offer it to him. (Christina Kahrl)
2009-12-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)Did the Jays get enough back for Roy Halladay?
(Jim Clancy from Exhibition Stadium)
I'm not a prospect guy, but I think Alex Anthopoulos played his hand about as well as could be expected given his minimal leverage - the consensus among the talent experts is that the Jays got more back than the Twins did for Johan Santana (it would be hard to do worse, I think). (Jay Jaffe)
2009-12-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)"Jays got more back than the Twins did for Johan Santana (it would be hard to do worse, I think)." As you note, that's setting the bar pretty low. Is that the worst trade of the last ten years? I can't think of any that are worse off the top of my head...
(mattymatty2000 from philly, pa)
Only time will tell, but I think you can make strong cases for the Expos' acquisition of Bartolo Colon (Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips to Cleveland) and the Braves' acquisition of Mark Teixeira (Neftali Felix, Elvis Andrus, Jarrod Saltalamacchia - yeah, I can spell it without looking - et al). Still, it's in the picture for the clinkers of note. (Jay Jaffe)
2009-12-11 13:00:00 (link to chat)Which pairing represents the silliest comp in the prospect hype machine from the last 12 months? A) Martin Perez & Johan Santana, B) Dee Gordon & Jose Reyes, C) Smoak & Teixiera, and D) Starlin & Hanley? Which is most realistic? I know you like to avoid comps yourself, but do see any now that just seem realistic (likely not my list of outlandish ones)? Thank you.
(Randy from Camden County)
I'm going of the board and picking the Dom Brown (Phillies) = Darryl Strawberry one. Easily the laziest of the current comps. Yes, he's LH, African-American, tall and lanky, but that's about it. Go look at what Daryl did at the same age as Brown. (Kevin Goldstein)
2009-11-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)Joe-thanks for the chat. Are the Dodgers crazy to consider trading Chad Billingsley for Roy Halladay?
(raygu1 from burlington, nj)
Well, no, but that wouldn't be the trade. It's Billingsley and a bunch of other stuff and you have to sign Halladay to an extension. I like Billingsley a lot, and think that I'd rather hold onto him and the prospects rather than deal for Halladay. It's the Johan Santana situation all over again; you're trading for one year and a negotiating window. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-11-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)So Joba, Montero, and a couple other prospects for Halladay, right? Having Doc and CC in a short series is too tempting to pass up.
(Elton from Smithtown, NY)
I'm not seeing this at all. You saw what Johan Santana eventually went for two years ago. When you're trading for one year and a negotiating window, for a player with a no-trade clause, you're simply not going to go nuts for that player when you have to pay market price for the next six years. It doesn't make any sense for a team to give up 18 years of value for that kind of deal. That's why the Twins got stuck with what they did (Santana didn't help matters by setting a deadline), and why the massive prospect deals proposed aren't going to happen. Getting one year of a player isn't worth all that.

Besides, the Yankees would be fine if they'd just let their five best starters START and leave them the hell alone. they need outfielders first, and if they really want to go nuts on a deal, should be targeting a Grady Sizemore or a Ryan Braun or someone like that. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-07-31 14:00:00 (link to chat)Yo Joe! For you, is Ricciardi pushing for too much from Texas, asking for Holland, Smoak, plus 1 or 2 more prospects? If rumours are true, do you think he's asking for too much in general from all clubs? I guess this team is going to be left cobbled together just long enough to get no further next year and get draftpicks or lesser returns than that. Thanks.
(Shane Leavitt from St. Stephen, NB.)
The worst thing Ricciardi can do isn't to ask for too much. It's to get too little. He's better off not trading Halladay now and taking a run at it in the offseason, getting the right package, then reprising the Twins' Johan Santana deal. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-06-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)There are a number of players who, for various reasons, have reverse platoon splits. Occasionally, managers have been wising up to hitters, and throwing whatever they don't hit well at them. Why, however, is this not more pervasive, and why do switch hitters never turn around to a pitchers weaker side rather than the one he thinks should be the weaker side?
(Ben from Chicago)
I'm not sure who you're specifically referring to. The only study I've read was in the 1988 Baseball Abstract, and concluded that all hitters eventually gravitate to normal splits over time, although in a season or two or three they can appear "backwards." Hitters will occasionally hit wrong-sided against knuckleballers and changeup artists (mostly Johan Santana in the latter case), pitchers for whom lateral motion isn't a big deal and whose arm slot makes tracking simple. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-06-08 14:00:00 (link to chat)Is Roy Halladay baseball's best pitcher? It's not like he hasn't been doing it for a long period of time, and I figure he's got to be given some extra credit for the division he pitches in as well as his ability to pitch more innings than any one else.
(blaseta from Calgary)
I still have Johan Santana atop my list, and I think you can argue that Halladay is the best of the next group down, which would include Brandon Webb, CC Sabathia and Tim Lincecum. Santana is a bit like Albert Pujols now, where he's so good people look for other guys to talk about. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-05-21 14:00:00 (link to chat)Fernando Martinez for Aubrey Huff and George Sherrill? The Mets seem to be built to win-now, and adding a legit bopper to a struggling lineup AND a solid lefty to bolster a suddenly-struggling Putz would make sense.
(Silv from NY, NY)
The Mets wouldn't trade Martinez for Johan Santana, so I'm going to say that they probably won't for a patch at first base and a mediocre lefthanded reliever. Andy, you have to disguise these better than that. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-02-19 13:00:00 (link to chat)A thanks to you and the other BP writers for addressing PEDs with a nuanced and honest approach that isn't found elsewhere. Do you see Johan Santana's knee being a reoccuring problem?
(KMD from Portland, OR)
You're welcome. I wish Joe Sheehan's last column could be broadly syndicated. I keep advocating a "BP Library" - a best of section that would be free. That'd be one for the Library.
Santana? Long term yes, but short term no, though he's definitely one of those guys I'm watching in spring training to make sure it's not more of a problem than I expected. (Will Carroll)
2009-02-03 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is there any chance that Daniel Murphy would be able to play second base if the Mets gave him a chance there? The kid's got an incredible work ethic and although he doesn't have too much athleticism, he does have a lot of minor league infield experience. He wouldn't be that much worse than Dan Uggla... would he?
(dtrainmets from NYC)
The people who saw him in limited time in Arizona said that he can't play the position. I might run him out there occasionally, say when Johan Santana or Oliver Perez is pitching and the opponent starts a righty, but he can't stay out there every day. The Mets have some tradition of doing this--Kevin Mitchell played some shortstop behind Sid Fernandez back in the day to get an extra bat in the lineup. (Joe Sheehan)
2009-01-22 13:00:00 (link to chat)I've been very interested to hear the thoughts of someone from BP on the Braves' signing of Lowe. Got any?
(Matt A from Raleigh)
Moving away from the Hall questions for the time being, I like this signing, though the price is a lot steeper than it should have been based on the reports of what the Mets were offering. Lowe is an ultra-durable groundballer who's solidified into a much better pitcher since leaving Boston, even beyond the obvious advantages of his move from Fenway to Dodger Stadium, park- and leaguewise. Over the last four years, he ranked 11th in the majors in SNLVAR, 10th in innings, and 12th in ERA+. While he's entering his age 36 season, there's nothing about him that suggests he's a particular health risk or that he's at risk of a sudden collapse.

The bigger issue for the Braves, however, is that while Lowe and recently acquired Javier Vazquez are both solid #2-type starters, neither is anywhere near the caliber of Johan Santana or Cole Hamels, the NL East's big guns. (Jay Jaffe)
2008-10-07 13:00:00 (link to chat)Can a legitimate case really be made for C.C. Sabathia to win the NL Cy Young? Surely his half-season isn't more valuable than full seasons from Tim Lincecum or Johan Santana?
(ericssimon from Jersey)
Since Lincecum and Santana have essentially the same SNLVAR (8.6 to 8.5, respectively) I'm going to give the nod to Lincecum, because he has a higher K rate, and that's what I love. (Marc Normandin)
2008-10-06 14:00:00 (link to chat)Joe, do the Rangers make a move with one of their catchers this off-season? If they wanted someone like Cain, what type of package? Laird + ???
(Tim from DC)
You can't start with Laird. You'd have to start with Ramirez or Salty, in that order, and I don't know if Salty has a ton of trade value at the moment given the Qs about his ability to catch.

The Rangers have something of a Yankees problem this winter, in that a team wanting to trade with them is going to want their best prospects, and those best prospects are fantastic. A team with less to offer can probably make a better deal because their "best prospects" aren't quite as good. I would compare this to the rumored deals the Yankees and Red Sox had last winter for Johan Santana, versus the package he was eventually dealt for. The Dodgers have gone through this to some extent as well.

In any case, it's a little more complicated for the Rangers. (Joe Sheehan)
2008-09-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who is the youngest guaranteed Hall of Famer in baseball right now? A-Rod?
(mattymatty from Philly)
Hmmm... Alex Rodriguez is 33, but Albert Pujols is just 28 and well on his way, though technically he'd need two more seasons to reach the 10 year minimum. Johan Santana is 29 and has two Cy Youngs under his belt; he might even slip in a third this year if the voters can overlook the fact that he's "only" got 13 wins (yeah, surrrrrrre). I don't have my JAWS spreadsheet open at the moment on this wheezing litle laptop but I think both of them have peak WARP scores equivalent to the average Hall of Famer at their positions. That's not a guarantee, but it's some food for thought. (Jay Jaffe)
2008-09-12 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is this the offseason in which the Twins realize they have a promising core and act to keep & add to it, rather than letting pieces slip away and signing inept, decades-older replacement pieces? What would be the one best move for them to make this winter? Also, Wikipedia argues pretty convincingly that it IS the Jonestown incident, and not the Wolfe book, from whence the saying comes.
(Bill from Chicago)
If they do, it'll be a credit to Bill Smith that he does so, because the Twins do have a good group of premium talent that they're going to be able to control for several seasons into the future, and ideally they do a better job of leveraging that opportunity into some more meaningful October glory than they managed in the Terry Ryan years (and losing out on winning with Johan Santana and Brad Radke). The one best move? Adding a top-shelf hitter at a position where they have need, either at an outfield corner or perhaps third base. (Christina Kahrl)
2008-07-30 12:30:00 (link to chat)The Yankees are desperate for a catcher and an outfielder, the Rangers have 4 catchers and an extra Milton Bradley and always need pitching. It almost seems too obvious a fit. Wouldn't a catcher and Bradley for Phil Hughes (or something along those lines) make sense for both sides?
(Stanky from DC)
The Yankees really don't want to give up Hughes or Kennedy. They wouldn't for Johan Santana over the winter and I'm told they won't do it now, pennant race be damned. (John Perrotto)
2008-07-29 16:00:00 (link to chat)Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Vicente Padilla for Phil Hughes.
(X from Y)
The Yankees wouldn't include Hughes in a Johan Santana deal so .. (Will Carroll)
2008-07-21 15:00:00 (link to chat) Will, Does it bother you at all that so much of the injury "reporting" (more accurately, speculating) by the general public/media is just basically guessing and then after the fact, hindsight 20/20 correction? For example, ESPN's fantasy guys were all wary of Sabathia during his rough start, dropping the "injury" word constantly. In the end, he's probably been the most dominant pitcher since. I heard Johan Santana was supposedly injured earlier too. It's all so silly. Sorry, just venting. Thanks for the great work.
(Justin Havens from Bristol, CT)
Keeps me in a job, so I wouldn't say frustrating. Injuries are an easy explanation for anything you can't explain -- "must be hurt!" Easy isn't always right. I was certainly watching Sabathia at that point, but for me, it's about getting as close to facts as possible. I've been reading "The First Coming" by Thomas Sheehan and it's taught me a lot about "probability as the standard." I do my best to get to the right sources with the right information, but its seldom that we get something like Schilling's post on his surgery where it's right in front of you or even the Gallardo in September possibility. (Will Carroll)
2008-07-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)More of a philosophical mechanics question. Using Craig Hansen as an example. when he came up, his motion seemed doomed to injury. Someone (the Sox or BorasCo.) had him change it to a more normal release, which made him even less effective. Now, he has returned to the short-arming that looks opretty bad, but has yielded slightly better, although inconsistent results. In your view, does a team have any "obligation" (for lack of a better word) to get a pitcher away from a "dangerous, but effective" motion, if such a motion means only short term success (a year or two), before an injury which even the team thinks is inevitable?
(ekanenh from a desk)
Great question. Hanson's not the best example here, but BJ Ryan is. From the time he was drafted, everyone knew he had terrible mechanics. The Reds rushed him up, traded him as quickly as they could for good value, and expected his arm to explode. Eventually it did but much later than everyone expected and with just a year off, he's back to his bad mechanics and good results. Should he have been changed? His accountant doesn't think so. There's a balance between effectiveness and health, but it's one that's difficult to read. I think the team is obliged to get the most value out of a player as they can. That might be running a guy out there like Torre did with Scott Proctor. Had the Twins kept Johan Santana, I would have wanted them to run him out there for as many innings as possible. Heck, I'd have sent the bullpen home on days he pitched. It's not very compassionate, but you know what, there's wins and losses, not style points. (Will Carroll)
2008-06-24 13:00:00 (link to chat)Here's a fantasy question for you if you're interested. I'd much appreciate it. Someone in my league just traded Ryan Howard, Justin Verlander, Josh Beckett, Curtis Granderson and Manny Ramirez for Cliff Lee, Ervin Santana, Carlos Gomez, Torii Hunter, Erik Bedard and Garrett Atkins. A lot of people are screaming veto, and I have to agree. The trade doesn't have any 'needs-based' or 'long-term' mitigating factors, either. As an important aside, the team getting the first set of players is in third while the other guy is near the bottom. Would you exercise a veto on this deal? Thanks!
(havens from bristol, CT)
Are we assuming good faith in this deal? Often a league has someone in it who is the Randy Smith of fantasy GMs and just gets suckered by everybody. I think that guy is fair game -- if he wears diapers, he shouldn't have been allowed in the league in the first place. I'm not for exercising the veto except in really apparent cases of dumping... You know, there was a parallel case in actual baseball, where for awhile Bowie Kuhn was negating trades just because he didn't like the players involved. He was actually sitting there and passing judgment on what the GMs were doing. Imagine if Bud Selig came in and said "Mets, you're overpaying for Johan Santana. No deal." That kind of thing was happening, and the more obvious opposite case as well, where he would have said, "Twins, Carlos Gomez isn't good enough. You need to hold out for a better position player or no deal." Like much of Kuhn's reign it was pathetic and unintentionally comical. (Steven Goldman)
2008-06-17 15:00:00 (link to chat)We know the way it was handled was wrong but were the Mets right in firing Willie Randolph?
(David from NJ)
Well, as botched a job as it was, I don't entirely disagree with the decision to dismiss Randolph. As Rob Neyer pointed out at ESPN, there's a good argument to make that he's not the right manager at the right time for this club, even given its flimsy construction.

Managers aren't solely tacticians. They're leaders of men (some very boyish men at times). Different managers have different styles, but some seem to be better at protecting their teams by placing themselves in the line of fire and drawing the attention away from the struggles of their clubs. Ozzie Guillen is a good example of this now, as batsh*t crazy as he may seem, there's a method to his madness. Joe Torre does the same thing while exuding an aura of pure calm. Bobby Valentine, Casey Stengel, Leo Durocher, Tommy Lasorda - the styles can vary but that function is an important one.

Randolph didn't handle that aspect of the job very well. The Mets have carried a very negative aura around them since last year's collapse, and not even the acquisition of Johan Santana could erase that. At some point Randolph should have just said strong words to the effect of "Don't connect this club to last year's mess, it's a new day and we've moved on so you should too." Instead he played the race card and in doing so started the countdown on his own sell-by date. (Jay Jaffe)
2008-04-17 13:00:00 (link to chat)On a scale of awesomeness between 1 and 10, how awesome is Lincecum? Probably an 11. Best pitcher in the NL within 5 years? I think so, don't you?
(JP from Manchester, CT)
Maybe within the next 5 months. Well, except that Johan Santana is in his league now. Even so, Lincecum is good enough to begin with that if he takes one more step forward, he's in "best pitcher in his league" territory. But for the time being, I should remember my own admonishments about small sample sizes. (Nate Silver)
2008-04-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)What do you expect out of Francisco Liriano for the rest of the season? Although he wasn't great yesterday, I heard his fastball was around 92 in 29 degree windchill weather.
(SnakeDoctor18 from Washington DC)
He wasn't letting the ball go. Someone did a video analysis of the starts, using Carlos Gomez's piece as a basis (I apologize, forget who and where) and it showed he'd slowed down his delivery some. It reminds me of the first month of Johan Santana's 2004 after he'd had elbow chips removed. (Will Carroll)
2008-03-25 14:00:00 (link to chat)Sign Street or deal at the deadline?
(Billy from Oakland)
Who says you can't do a bit of both? Signing Street doesn't just provide you with cost certainty, it does likewise for his prospective alternative employer, who might pay an extra premium for acquiring a player under contractual control. Certainly, that was one of the lessons from this past winter, and why Danny Haren brought more in bounty than Johan Santana. (Christina Kahrl)
2008-03-25 14:00:00 (link to chat)I don't put much stock in spring stats, but John Maine has looked dominant this spring. Is this something the Mets should be excited about?
(chuckstein17 from Long Beach, NY)
Well, it's something to feel good about, certainly. If Maine and Oliver Perez prove to be solid contributors behind Johan Santana, Pedro becomes gravy to some extent. (Christina Kahrl)
2008-01-31 13:00:00 (link to chat)The Mets Prospect List isn't going to look pretty is it?
(David from NJ)
No, it's going to look pretty horrendous. But as one front office official said to me yesterday, and later a Mets official agreed, "who gives a [expletive], they just got Johan Santana." (Kevin Goldstein)
2008-01-29 16:00:00 (link to chat)Would you pay Johan Santana 22-25 million a year and what do you think of the package the twins might get back with Gomez, Guerra, Mulvey, and Humber?
(Mike from Utica,NY)
I've just been informed in the last few minutes that this trade is 99.9% official, and as listed. I'm stunned by this trade, and as a Royals fan, I'm thrilled. You trade the best pitcher in baseball and don't get a single can't-miss guy in return? Way to play your cards, Bill Smith. This is great for the Mets, and great for the National League. (Rany Jazayerli)
2008-01-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)Joe - you are the man ! The Mets saved $10 million from Glavine leaving plus '08 revenues will be up. Who are they going to/should they spend it on?
(pjfsks from morristown, nj)
There's nothing out there to spend that much money on. You could assemble a trade for Johan Santana, but it doesn't seem like the Mets will do that, at least at the moment.

Everybody is swimming in cash now. The hardest thing--outside of Miami--is not spending it. (Joe Sheehan)


BP Roundtables

DateRoundtable NameComment
2008-10-13 17:00:00NLCS Game FourInteresting, because I would have dismissed even the extreme data below about 40 PA. Adding information would be helpful, I would think. Bob is 9-for-16 against Johan Santana...but 7-for-9 of that was in his Rule 5 year. Stuff like that. (Joe Sheehan)
 

PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

A Collaboration between BrooksBaseball.net and Baseball Prospectus - Pitch classifications provided by Pitch Info LLC