Biographical

Portrait of Jarren Duran

Jarren Duran RF  

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2019 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 22)
PA AVG HR R RBI SB DRC+ WARP
325 .237 7 38 28 11 61 -0.3
Birth Date9-5-1996
Height6' 2"
Weight200 lbs
Age23 years, 4 months, 14 days
BatsL
ThrowsR
2015
2016
2017
2018
-0.32019
proj
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

YEAR TEAM AGE G PA H 2B 3B HR BB SO HBP SB CS AVG OBP SLG DRC+ DRAA BRR FRAA BWARP

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg LG G PA oppAVG oppOBP oppSLG BABIP BPF BRAA repLVL POS_ADJ DRC+ DRC+ SD FRAA BRR DRAA BWARP
2018 GRN A SAL 30 134 .255 .322 .380 .438 97 8.2 3.7 -1.4 167 0 0.0 1.6 8.2 1.3
2018 LOW A- NYP 37 168 .247 .315 .354 .406 101 14.6 4.7 -0.2 177 0 5.0 0.4 10.6 2.2
2019 SLM A+ CAR 50 226 .238 .318 .354 .480 103 20.4 6.1 0.6 201 0 0.2 3.4 19.7 3.3
2019 PME AA EAS 82 352 .240 .309 .369 .335 99 -5.2 9.3 0.7 76 0 -3.3 5.1 -7.0 0.5

Statistics For All Levels

Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
Year Team lvl LG PA AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG ISO SF SH
2018 GRN A SAL 134 128 24 47 9 1 1 61 15 5 22 12 6 .367 .396 .477 .109 0 0
2018 LOW A- NYP 168 155 28 54 5 10 2 85 20 11 26 12 4 .348 .393 .548 .200 1 0
2019 PME AA EAS 352 320 41 80 11 5 1 104 19 23 84 28 8 .250 .309 .325 .075 1 3
2019 SLM A+ CAR 226 199 49 77 13 3 4 108 19 23 44 18 5 .387 .456 .543 .156 1 0

Plate Discipline

YEAR Pits Zone% Swing% Contact% Z-Swing% O-Swing% Z-Contact% O-Contact% SwStr% CSAA

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation

Compensation

Year Team Salary

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status

Details

2019 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET

PCT PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG DRC+ VORP FRAA WARP
90o 402 50 114 16 5 11 45 6 94 17 8 .290 .299 .440 91 19.9 2.1
80o 376 45 101 14 5 10 40 5 91 15 7 .275 .283 .422 81 12.1 1.3
70o 357 41 90 12 4 9 36 5 88 13 7 .258 .267 .393 73 7.1 0.8
60o 340 38 82 11 4 8 33 4 85 12 6 .246 .254 .375 67 3.1 0.3
50o 325 35 75 10 4 7 31 4 82 11 6 .236 .244 .358 61 -0.2 0.0
40o 310 32 68 9 3 7 28 4 80 10 5 .224 .233 .343 55 -3.3 -0.3
30o 293 29 61 8 3 6 25 3 77 9 5 .213 .219 .324 48 -6.2 -0.7
20o 274 26 53 7 3 5 23 3 73 8 4 .197 .204 .301 41 -9.2 -1.0
10o 248 22 43 6 2 4 19 2 68 6 3 .177 .182 .267 30 -12.6 -1.3
Weighted Mean3323679114832484116.243.251.375631.20.1

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG DRC+ WARP VORP BRR POS_ADJ REP_ADJ RAA FRAA
20202342041961351044710615.236.248.36562-0.1-1.72.3-1.810.8-12.90.8
2021244264410014511471010716.244.261.384670.1-0.12.3-2.011.0-11.40.8
20222540641951441145810314.243.258.386670.0-0.32.1-2.010.4-10.80.8
2023263823990134114389513.242.257.38466-0.0-0.71.8-2.09.8-10.40.7
2024273633885124104199112.242.260.387670.0-0.71.6-2.09.3-9.60.7
2025283663885124104189212.242.259.38567-0.0-1.01.5-2.19.4-9.80.7
2026293633885124104199011.243.262.39068-0.0-0.91.2-2.29.3-9.20.7
2027303573783124104098910.242.261.38868-0.1-1.31.0-2.39.2-9.20.7
202831356378312410409899.242.262.38868-0.1-1.50.8-2.49.2-9.10.7

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 83)

Rank Score Name Year DRC+ Trend
1 92 Socrates Brito 2015 80
2 91 Joe Dickerson 2009 0 DNP
3 91 Gabriel Guerrero 2016 0 DNP
4 91 Victor Reyes 2017 0 DNP
5 90 Brandon Short 2011 0 DNP
6 90 Rymer Liriano 2013 0 DNP
7 90 Mitch Dening 2011 0 DNP
8 89 Jordan Smith 2013 0 DNP
9 89 Lorenzo Cain 2008 0 DNP
10 88 Geulin Beltre 2013 0 DNP
11 88 Destin Hood 2012 0 DNP
12 88 Luis Sumoza 2011 0 DNP
13 87 Drew Vettleson 2014 0 DNP
14 87 Concepcion Rodriguez 2009 0 DNP
15 87 Cirilo Cumberbatch 2009 0 DNP
16 86 James Jones 2011 0 DNP
17 86 Aaron Cunningham 2008 61
18 85 Avisail Garcia 2013 88
19 85 Matthew Sulentic 2010 0 DNP
20 85 Shane Peterson 2010 0 DNP
21 85 Jorge Bonifacio 2015 0 DNP
22 84 Brett Siddall 2017 0 DNP
23 84 Ben Gamel 2014 0 DNP
24 84 Noel Cuevas 2014 0 DNP
25 84 Leandro Castro 2011 0 DNP
26 84 Elier Hernandez 2017 0 DNP
27 84 Reid Engel 2009 0 DNP
28 84 Joey Curletta 2016 0 DNP
29 84 John Matulia 2009 0 DNP
30 84 Jeremy Barfield 2011 0 DNP
31 83 Joshua Flores 2008 0 DNP
32 83 Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado 2017 0 DNP
33 83 Omar Carrizales 2017 0 DNP
34 83 Gorkys Hernandez 2010 0 DNP
35 83 Zoilo Almonte 2011 0 DNP
36 83 Xavier Avery 2012 70
37 83 Chad Tracy 2008 0 DNP
38 83 Elvis Rubio 2017 0 DNP
39 83 Teodoro Martinez 2014 0 DNP
40 82 Zach Collier 2013 0 DNP
41 82 Raimel Tapia 2016 71
42 82 J.P. Ramirez 2012 0 DNP
43 82 Lance Ray 2012 0 DNP
44 82 Rafael Bautista 2015 0 DNP
45 82 Francisco Peguero 2010 0 DNP
46 82 Daniel Pertusati 2012 0 DNP
47 82 Dorssys Paulino 2017 0 DNP
48 82 Kyle Waldrop 2014 0 DNP
49 82 Alex Presley 2008 0 DNP
50 82 Mason Williams 2014 0 DNP
51 82 Antonio Sucre 2006 0 DNP
52 81 Dan Brewer 2010 0 DNP
53 81 Peter Bourjos 2009 0 DNP
54 81 Christian Marrero 2009 0 DNP
55 81 Ty Morrison 2013 0 DNP
56 81 Rafael Ortega 2013 0 DNP
57 81 Gerardo Parra 2009 82
58 81 Phil Ervin 2015 0 DNP
59 81 Jae-Hoon Ha 2013 0 DNP
60 81 Mitch Einertson 2008 0 DNP
61 81 Carlos Tocci 2018 60
62 81 Christopher Garia 2015 0 DNP
63 81 Albert Almora 2016 92
64 81 Jake Cave 2015 0 DNP
65 81 Ezequiel Carrera 2009 0 DNP
66 81 Austin Dean 2016 0 DNP
67 81 Cord Sandberg 2017 0 DNP
68 81 B.J. Boyd 2016 0 DNP
69 81 Dustin Peterson 2017 0 DNP
70 81 Trayvon Robinson 2010 0 DNP
71 80 Joseph Monge 2017 0 DNP
72 80 Willie Cabrera 2009 0 DNP
73 80 Abner Abreu 2012 0 DNP
74 80 Engel Beltre 2012 0 DNP
75 80 Kelvin Gutierrez 2017 0 DNP
76 80 Tito Polo 2017 0 DNP
77 80 John Drennen 2009 0 DNP
78 80 Daniel Ortiz 2012 0 DNP
79 80 Corey Adamson 2014 0 DNP
80 80 Danry Vasquez 2016 0 DNP
81 80 Tyler Hill 2018 0 DNP
82 80 John Shelby 2008 0 DNP
83 80 Tyrone Taylor 2016 0 DNP
84 80 Kyle Bellows 2011 0 DNP
85 80 Jacob Scavuzzo 2016 0 DNP
86 80 Derrick Loveless 2015 0 DNP
87 80 David Dahl 2016 90
88 80 Angelo Songco 2011 0 DNP
89 80 Bo Greenwell 2011 0 DNP
90 79 Francisco Martinez 2013 0 DNP
91 79 Oscar Tejeda 2012 0 DNP
92 79 Jake Marisnick 2013 63
93 79 Charlie Tilson 2015 0 DNP
94 79 Jiwan James 2011 0 DNP
95 79 Franchy Cordero 2017 54
96 79 Cedric Mullins 2017 0 DNP
97 79 Danny Santana 2013 0 DNP
98 79 Trevor Plouffe 2008 0 DNP
99 79 Jamal Austin 2013 0 DNP
100 79 Keury De La Cruz 2014 0 DNP

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2019  Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).

BP Articles

Click here to see articles tagged with Jarren Duran

BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2019-11-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)Where does Jarren Duran profile in the Boston OF? Doesn’t seem to be a clear spot for playing time
(Michael from Bawhston)
There will be once they trade Mookie Betts? Is this too soon? I guess it hasn't even happened yet. I still suspect he's more a good bench outfielder on a first-division team, which I suppose Boston still fancies themselves. (Boston Red Sox Top 10 Chat)
2019-06-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)Hello Craig, I was wondering what you thought of Jarren Duran. He hasn't gotten much love in prospect talk despite crushing 3 levels of lower minor league pitching. He's currently working through his first challenge professionally in AA. Do you see him moving quickly from here and being an impact bat/base thief with Boston some time next year? Thanks for your thoughts!
(rflippin from Lake Forest, CA)
He's been brought up pretty consistently in chats, because as you said he's been performing. Jeffrey Paternostro caught him last year and there wasn't a ton to write home about at the time, but he might have just been flagging at the time. The contact is good overall but scouts have concerns about his strength holding up as he moves up the chain, and don't see a lot of projection remaining. He's a plus-plus runner though and can go and get it in center field. If he hits, he's really fun as a fantasy player but there are a lot of "4th outfielder" vibes too. (Craig Goldstein)
2019-06-05 21:00:00 (link to chat)What is Jarren Duran’s upside for fantasy? Do you think he’s a top of the order bat?
(Jake from Boston)
Feels like Adam Eaton type upside, so yes he could be a good top of the order bat. (Mr. President Bret Sayre)
2019-05-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)How excited should I be about Jarren Duran? Next Ellsbury?
(Kristi from Salem)
I just picked up Duran in a 20-team league and am fairly excited about it. He could be fun. Ellsbury was super good before he wasn't, so that's a lot of hype, but it's something to dream on, sure. (Mark Barry)
2019-05-15 13:00:00 (link to chat)Any deep prospects who you've picked up in leagues or just interest in this year?
(Sal from Philly)
I snagged Sam Huff and Ivan Herrera in TDGX, and Jonathan Ornelas, Abraham Toro-Hernandez and Jarren Duran in my AL-Only league. It's a 300-deep prospect universe on the AL-Only side. Terrin Vavra in my NL (same depth). I had Mariel Bautista last year but I think he is in the same vein. (Craig Goldstein)
2019-05-03 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is Jarren Duran A breakout prospect akin To Garrett Hampson?
(Steve from Haiku)
I don't know about the comp and I prefer to let guys be their own thing - but I like Duran for sure. Think he's moderately underrated right now. (Craig Goldstein)
2019-05-01 12:00:00 (link to chat)Small sample size, but it looks like Jarren Duran might have a legit hit tool. Is he someone you see as a riser this year or is it an older prospect feasting on younger pitching?
(Steve from Boston)
I didn't love him in Lowell last year, but I am vaguely curious how it all plays in CF. I'd guess it's more the latter though. (Jeffrey Paternostro)


BP Roundtables

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