Bryan Mata Stats | Baseball Prospectus

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Bryan Mata PRed Sox

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2019 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 20)

IP	ERA	WHIP	SO	W	L	SV	WARP
58.7	5.73	1.78	47	3	5	0	-0.4

Birth Date	5-3-1999
Height	6' 3"
Weight	238 lbs

Age	24 years, 11 months, 16 days
Bats	R
Throws	R

: 2015
: 2016
: 2017
: 2018
: -0.42019
proj

WARP Summary

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MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shown —Click to hide.

YEAR	Team	Lg	G	GS	IP	W	L	SV	H	BB	SO	HR	PPF	H/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/9	GB%	BABIP	WHIP	FIP	ERA	cFIP	DRA	DRA-	WARP

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shown —Click to hide.

YEAR	Team	Lg	LG	G	GS	IP	W	L	H	BB	SO	HR	PPF	H/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/9	GB%	BABIP	WHIP	FIP	ERA	cFIP	DRA	DRA-
2016	DRX	Rk	DSL	14	14	61.0	4	4	54	19	61	2	87	8.0	2.8	0.3	9.0	51%	.319	1.20	2.56	2.80	87	4.64	102.5
2017	GRN	A	SAL	17	17	77.0	5	6	75	26	74	3	105	8.8	3.0	0.4	8.6	53%	.333	1.31	3.40	3.74	97	4.67	99.4
2018	SLM	A+	CAR	17	17	72.0	6	3	58	58	61	1	103	7.3	7.3	0.1	7.6	59%	.292	1.61	4.76	3.50	122	5.71	120.8
2019	SLM	A+	CAR	10	10	51.3	3	1	38	18	52	1	103	6.7	3.2	0.2	9.1	67%	.268	1.09	3.06	1.75	92	3.68	75.7
2019	PME	AA	EAS	11	11	53.7	4	6	54	24	59	6	97	9.1	4.0	1.0	9.9	54%	.340	1.45	3.98	5.03	103	5.42	111.6

Plate Discipline

YEAR	Pits	Zone%	Swing%	Contact%	Z-Swing%	O-Swing%	Z-Contact%	O-Contact%	SwStr%

Injury History — No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On	Date Off	Transaction	Days	Games	Side	Body Part	Injury	Severity	Surgery Date	Reaggravation

Compensation

Year	Team	Salary
2023	BOS	$
2022	BOS	$

Service Time	Agent	Contract Status
0 y 0 d		1 year (2023)

Details
1 year (2023). Re-signed by Boston 3/23. 1 year (2022). Re-signed by Boston 3/22. 2021. Contract selected by Boston 11/20/20. Signed by Boston 1/27/16 as an amateur free agent from Venezuela. $25,000 signing bonus.

2019 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET

PCT	W	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	BABIP	WHIP	ERA	DRA	VORP	WARP
90^o	14.3	18	18	79.6	66	45	63	7	.258	1.39	4.13	4.51	-10.7	-1.2
80^o	12.4	16	16	72.2	65	45	57	7	.275	1.52	4.60	5.01	-13.5	-1.5
70^o	11.1	15	15	67.0	64	44	53	7	.287	1.62	4.95	5.39	-15.3	-1.7
60^o	10	14	14	62.7	63	43	50	7	.298	1.70	5.25	5.72	-16.5	-1.8
50^o	9	13	13	58.8	62	43	47	7	.307	1.78	5.54	6.03	-17.4	-1.9
40^o	8.1	12	12	55.0	61	42	44	7	.318	1.87	5.84	6.36	-18.2	-2.0
30^o	7.2	11	11	51.0	60	41	40	7	.328	1.97	6.17	6.71	-18.7	-2.0
20^o	6.2	10	10	46.6	58	40	37	6	.341	2.08	6.57	7.14	-19.3	-2.1
10^o	4.9	9	9	40.6	54	37	32	6	.359	2.26	7.14	7.76	-19.4	-2.1
Weighted Mean	9	13	13	58.1	61	42	46	7	.305	1.76	5.49	5.98	-16.9	-1.8

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.

Year	Age	W	L	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	GB%	BABIP	WHIP	ERA	DRA	H/9	BB/9	K/9	HR/9	WARP
2020	21	6	10	26	26	152	160	120	125	19	49	.308	1.84	5.94	6.28	9.5	7.1	7.4	1.1	-1.1
2021	22	6	10	25	25	148	154	112	125	18	49	.307	1.80	5.79	6.13	9.4	6.8	7.6	1.1	-0.8
2022	23	6	10	25	25	150	154	112	127	18	49	.306	1.78	5.70	6.03	9.3	6.7	7.6	1.1	-0.7
2023	24	4	7	17	17	103	103	80	88	12	49	.301	1.78	5.79	6.13	9.0	7.0	7.7	1.0	-0.6
2024	25	4	7	18	18	105	108	79	89	12	49	.305	1.78	5.71	6.04	9.2	6.7	7.6	1.0	-0.5
2025	26	4	7	19	19	112	115	82	96	14	49	.307	1.76	5.79	6.12	9.3	6.6	7.7	1.1	-0.6
2026	27	4	7	19	19	114	118	83	96	14	49	.306	1.77	5.73	6.06	9.3	6.6	7.6	1.1	-0.6
2027	28	4	7	18	18	107	111	78	91	14	49	.307	1.76	5.73	6.06	9.3	6.5	7.6	1.2	-0.5
2028	29	4	7	19	19	111	115	80	95	14	49	.306	1.75	5.69	6.02	9.3	6.5	7.7	1.1	-0.5

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 85)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	Run Average	Trend
1	94	Rob Kaminsky	2015	0.00	DNP
2	92	Kohl Stewart	2015	0.00	DNP
3	92	Tyler Pike	2014	0.00	DNP
4	91	Tyler Matzek	2011	0.00	DNP
5	90	A.J. Alexy	2018	0.00	DNP
6	90	Jonathan Hernandez	2017	0.00	DNP
7	90	Nicholas Bucci	2011	0.00	DNP
8	89	Jesse Biddle	2012	0.00	DNP
9	89	Hunter Harvey	2015	0.00	DNP
10	89	Matt Hobgood	2011	0.00	DNP
11	89	Shane Watson	2014	0.00	DNP
12	89	Zachary Bird	2015	0.00	DNP
13	88	Yovani Gallardo	2006	0.00	DNP
14	88	Jair Jurrjens	2006	0.00	DNP
15	88	Duane Underwood Jr.	2015	0.00	DNP
16	88	Mike Montgomery	2010	0.00	DNP
17	88	Brian Gonzalez	2016	0.00	DNP
18	87	Clayton Cook	2011	0.00	DNP
19	87	Jake Johnson	2011	0.00	DNP
20	87	Chuck Lofgren	2006	0.00	DNP
21	87	Jeurys Familia	2010	0.00	DNP
22	87	Juan Minaya	2011	0.00	DNP
23	87	Sean Gallagher	2006	0.00	DNP
24	87	Ofelky Peralta	2017	0.00	DNP
25	86	Robinson Lopez	2011	0.00	DNP
26	86	Josh Hader	2014	0.00	DNP
27	86	Drew Hutchison	2011	0.00	DNP
28	86	Junior Fernandez	2017	0.00	DNP
29	86	Chad James	2011	0.00	DNP
30	86	Max Fried	2014	0.00	DNP
31	86	Beau Burrows	2017	0.00	DNP
32	86	Blake Beavan	2009	0.00	DNP
33	85	Jen-Ho Tseng	2015	0.00	DNP
34	85	Victor Payano	2013	0.00	DNP
35	85	Joey Mahalic	2009	0.00	DNP
36	85	Casey Kelly	2010	0.00	DNP
37	85	Zach Lee	2012	0.00	DNP
38	85	Luis Cruz	2011	0.00	DNP
39	85	Luis Heredia	2015	0.00	DNP
40	85	Andrew Jordan	2018	0.00	DNP
41	85	Nick Neidert	2017	0.00	DNP
42	85	Ricardo Sanchez	2017	0.00	DNP
43	85	Rodrigo Takahashi	2017	0.00	DNP
44	85	Mauricio Cabrera	2014	0.00	DNP
45	85	Mauricio Robles	2009	0.00	DNP
46	85	Chris Flexen	2015	0.00	DNP
47	85	Jason Adam	2012	0.00	DNP
48	85	Trevor Reckling	2009	0.00	DNP
49	84	Richard Castillo	2010	0.00	DNP
50	84	Shawn Morimando	2013	0.00	DNP
51	84	Dae-Eun Rhee	2009	0.00	DNP
52	84	Clayton Tanner	2008	0.00	DNP
53	84	Peter Lambert	2017	0.00	DNP
54	84	Chris Archer	2009	0.00	DNP
55	84	Maikel Cleto	2009	0.00	DNP
56	84	Matt Lollis	2011	0.00	DNP
57	83	Deolis Guerra	2009	0.00	DNP
58	83	Riley Pint	2018	0.00	DNP
59	83	JC Ramirez	2009	0.00	DNP
60	83	Reggie Lawson	2018	0.00	DNP
61	83	Archie Bradley	2013	0.00	DNP
62	83	Touki Toussaint	2016	0.00	DNP
63	82	Miguel Castro	2015	6.62
64	82	Antonio Senzatela	2015	0.00	DNP
65	82	Carlos Herrera	2018	0.00	DNP
66	82	Elvin Rodriguez	2018	0.00	DNP
67	82	Kyle Allen	2010	0.00	DNP
68	82	Sean O'Sullivan	2008	0.00	DNP
69	82	Robert Gsellman	2014	0.00	DNP
70	82	Jesse Beal	2011	0.00	DNP
71	82	Felix Sterling	2013	0.00	DNP
72	82	Rony Garcia	2018	0.00	DNP
73	82	T.J. House	2010	0.00	DNP
74	82	Tanner Bushue	2011	0.00	DNP
75	82	Ian Clarkin	2015	0.00	DNP
76	82	Timothy Melville	2010	0.00	DNP
77	82	Brad Keller	2016	0.00	DNP
78	82	Eric Hurley	2006	0.00	DNP
79	82	Resly Linares	2018	0.00	DNP
80	81	Tyler Green	2012	0.00	DNP
81	81	Tyler Chatwood	2010	0.00	DNP
82	81	Nicholas McBride	2011	0.00	DNP
83	81	Sal Romano	2014	0.00	DNP
84	81	Wilmer Font	2010	0.00	DNP
85	81	Jake Woodford	2017	0.00	DNP
86	81	Alex Reyes	2015	0.00	DNP
87	81	Christian Garcia	2006	0.00	DNP
88	81	Clemente Mendoza	2011	0.00	DNP
89	81	Quinton Miller	2010	0.00	DNP
90	81	J.C. Sulbaran	2010	0.00	DNP
91	81	Lucas Sims	2014	0.00	DNP
92	81	Will Smith	2010	0.00	DNP
93	81	Carlos Pimentel	2010	0.00	DNP
94	80	Sean Reid-Foley	2016	0.00	DNP
95	80	Carlos Perez	2012	0.00	DNP
96	80	Akeem Bostick	2015	0.00	DNP
97	80	Alex Burnett	2008	0.00	DNP
98	80	Phillippe Aumont	2009	0.00	DNP
99	80	Garrett Gould	2012	0.00	DNP
100	80	Brad Hand	2010	0.00	DNP

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		Nothing Mata has done in his career looks terribly special until you realize he doesn’t turn 19 until May. Viewed through that lens, he deserves praise for already surpassing 130 career innings, and for holding his own in Greenville despite barely being old enough to vote. Mata is thinner than a Whippet and lacks a premium fastball, but he has a projectable body and a good feel for pitching. His ceiling falls short of sky-high, and he’s even riskier than your average starting pitching prospect due to his age and size. But Mata has passed every test he’s been given on the mound at an age when most are worried about the SATs or AP exams, and that’s all you can ask for.

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