Biographical

Portrait of Yadier Alvarez

Yadier Alvarez P  

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2019 Projections (Preseason PECOTA - seasonal age 23)
IP ERA WHIP SO W L SV WARP
55.3 4.29 1.45 60 3 3 0 0.3
Birth Date3-7-1996
Height6' 3"
Weight175 lbs
Age23 years, 6 months, 10 days
BatsR
ThrowsR
2015
2016
2017
2018
0.32019
proj
WARP Summary

MLB Statistics

Historical (past-seasons) WARP is now based on DRA..
cFIP and DRA are not available on a by-team basis and display as zeroes(0). See TOT line for season totals of these stats.
Multiple stints are are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA- WARP

Statistics for All Levels

'opp' stats - Quality of opponents faced - have been moved and are available only as OPP_QUAL in the Statistics reports now.
Minor league stats are currently shownClick to hide.
YEAR Team Lg LG G GS IP W L SV H BB SO HR PPF H/9 BB/9 HR/9 K/9 GB% BABIP WHIP FIP ERA cFIP DRA DRA-
2016 GRL A MID 9 9 39.3 3 2 0 31 11 55 1 90 7.1 2.5 0.2 12.6 49% .326 1.07 1.84 2.29 72 3.15 69.5
2016 DOD Rk AZL 5 5 20.0 1 1 0 9 10 26 0 98 4.1 4.5 0.0 11.7 64% .200 0.95 3.01 1.80 89 1.20 26.5
2017 RCU A+ CAL 14 11 59.3 2 4 1 61 25 61 3 108 9.3 3.8 0.5 9.3 51% .335 1.45 3.79 5.31 98 4.45 94.7
2017 TUL AA TEX 7 7 33.0 2 2 0 29 25 36 1 102 7.9 6.8 0.3 9.8 56% .318 1.64 3.98 3.55 104 5.08 108.1
2018 TUL AA TEX 17 8 48.3 1 2 1 37 43 52 2 112 6.9 8.0 0.4 9.7 54% .285 1.66 4.56 4.66 110 4.89 103.4
2018 DOD Rk AZL 2 2 7.0 0 0 0 5 1 10 0 95 6.4 1.3 0.0 12.9 71% .357 0.86 1.64 1.29 76 2.72 57.5
2019 TUL AA TEX 2 2 3.7 0 2 0 5 4 6 1 89 12.3 9.8 2.5 14.7 40% .444 2.45 6.99 14.73 118 6.97 143.4

Plate Discipline

YEAR Pits Zone% Swing% Contact% Z-Swing% O-Swing% Z-Contact% O-Contact% SwStr%

Injury History  —  No longer being updated

Last Update: 12/31/2014 23:59 ET

Date On Date Off Transaction Days Games Side Body Part Injury Severity Surgery Date Reaggravation

Compensation

Year Team Salary
2019 LAN $

 

Service TimeAgentContract Status
0 y 0 d1 year (2019)

Details
  • 1 year (2019). Contract selected by LA Dodgers 11/20/18. Re-signed 3/19.
  • Signed by LA Dodgers 7/2/15 as a free agent from Cuba. $16M signing bonus.

2019 Preseason Forecast

Last Update: 1/27/2017 12:35 ET

PCT W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR BABIP WHIP ERA DRA VORP WARP
90o 4.9 3.3 0.2 19 15 72.4 49 37 77 6 .244 1.19 3.21 3.41 10.6 1.1
80o 4.2 3.3 0.2 17 13 65.4 49 36 70 6 .260 1.30 3.64 3.87 6.5 0.7
70o 3.8 3.2 0.2 16 12 60.6 48 36 64 6 .272 1.38 3.95 4.21 3.9 0.4
60o 3.5 3.1 0.1 15 12 56.5 47 35 60 6 .281 1.45 4.22 4.5 2.0 0.2
50o 3.2 3 0.1 14 11 52.9 46 34 56 6 .291 1.52 4.48 4.79 0.3 0.0
40o 2.9 2.9 0.1 13 10 49.3 45 33 52 5 .300 1.59 4.75 5.07 -1.1 -0.1
30o 2.6 2.8 0.1 12 9 45.5 43 32 48 5 .310 1.67 5.04 5.39 -2.5 -0.3
20o 2.3 2.7 0.1 11 8 41.3 42 31 44 5 .322 1.76 5.39 5.76 -3.9 -0.4
10o 1.8 2.5 0.1 9 7 35.6 39 29 38 5 .339 1.90 5.89 6.3 -5.3 -0.6
Weighted Mean3.130.1141152.24533555.2881.504.444.740.50.1

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Playing time estimates are based on performance, not Depth Charts.
Year Age W L SV G GS IP H BB SO HR GB% BABIP WHIP ERA DRA H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WARP
20202467033231701361091931748.3091.444.304.847.25.810.20.90.5
2021256703022152121961731548.3051.424.264.797.15.710.20.90.6
2022266703021151121971701648.3041.454.465.027.25.810.21.00.3
2023276703122158127981771648.3071.424.284.817.25.610.10.90.6
2024286703022152121931741548.3081.414.194.717.25.510.30.90.7
2025295602920143113891661548.3071.414.234.767.15.610.40.90.6
2026305602820139112841581548.3071.414.284.817.25.410.21.00.5
2027315602719134108811521548.3071.414.364.907.35.510.21.00.4
2028325602518125100741411448.3061.404.304.837.25.310.21.00.4

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 89)

Rank Score Name Year Run Average Trend
1 96 Dan Cortes 2010 5.06
2 96 Connor Graham 2009 0.00 DNP
3 95 Jose Cisnero 2012 0.00 DNP
4 94 Kasey Kiker 2011 0.00 DNP
5 93 Zach Phillips 2010 0.00 DNP
6 93 Joe Gardner 2011 0.00 DNP
7 93 Pedro Payano 2018 0.00 DNP
8 92 Andrew Cashner 2010 5.13
9 92 Brooks Brown 2008 0.00 DNP
10 92 Jake Cose 2014 0.00 DNP
11 92 Antonio Bastardo 2009 6.85
12 92 Casey Crosby 2012 9.49
13 92 Luke Jackson 2015 4.26
14 92 Travis Wood 2010 3.94
15 92 Alex Colome 2012 0.00 DNP
16 92 Sean Newcomb 2016 0.00 DNP
17 91 Patrick Weigel 2018 0.00 DNP
18 91 Tom Windle 2015 0.00 DNP
19 91 Brandon Erbe 2011 0.00 DNP
20 91 Glen Perkins 2006 1.59
21 91 Trevor Reckling 2012 0.00 DNP
22 91 Lucas Sims 2017 5.77
23 91 Tyler Beede 2016 0.00 DNP
24 90 Adrian Houser 2016 0.00 DNP
25 90 Kevin Siegrist 2013 0.45
26 90 Scott Gorgen 2010 0.00 DNP
27 90 Tom Gorzelanny 2006 4.23
28 90 Scott Snodgress 2013 0.00 DNP
29 90 Chuck Lofgren 2009 0.00 DNP
30 90 Brandon Waddell 2017 0.00 DNP
31 90 T.J. House 2013 0.00 DNP
32 89 Alex Torres 2011 4.50
33 89 Paul Demny 2013 0.00 DNP
34 89 P.J. Walters 2008 0.00 DNP
35 89 Angel Sanchez 2013 0.00 DNP
36 89 Jake Arrieta 2009 0.00 DNP
37 89 Aaron Blair 2015 0.00 DNP
38 89 Anthony Swarzak 2009 6.56
39 89 Dellin Betances 2011 6.75
40 89 Zach Jackson 2006 6.10
41 89 Shawn Morimando 2016 11.57
42 89 Yency Almonte 2017 0.00 DNP
43 89 Sean West 2009 5.23
44 89 Greg Harris 2018 0.00 DNP
45 89 Matt Fairel 2011 0.00 DNP
46 89 Rafael Dolis 2011 0.00
47 89 Matt Anderson 2015 0.00 DNP
48 88 Sam Selman 2014 0.00 DNP
49 88 Will Lamb 2014 0.00 DNP
50 88 Anthony Ferrara 2013 0.00 DNP
51 88 Carlos Pimentel 2013 0.00 DNP
52 88 Corey Black 2015 0.00 DNP
53 88 Michael Goodnight 2012 0.00 DNP
54 88 Yimmi Brasoban 2017 0.00 DNP
55 88 Tyler Thornburg 2012 4.50
56 88 Chris Withrow 2012 0.00 DNP
57 88 Blake Wood 2009 0.00 DNP
58 88 Wily Peralta 2012 2.48
59 88 Dean Deetz 2017 0.00 DNP
60 88 Kelvin De La Cruz 2012 0.00 DNP
61 88 Chris Mason 2008 0.00 DNP
62 88 Daniel Stumpf 2014 0.00 DNP
63 88 Chris Anderson 2016 0.00 DNP
64 88 Nick Additon 2011 0.00 DNP
65 88 Justin Grimm 2012 9.00
66 88 Shane Dawson 2017 0.00 DNP
67 88 Justin Wilson 2011 0.00 DNP
68 88 Scott Barnes 2011 0.00 DNP
69 88 Tyson Ross 2010 5.49
70 88 Jon Kibler 2010 0.00 DNP
71 88 Chris Archer 2012 5.22
72 87 Anthony Ortega 2009 10.66
73 87 Javier Avendano 2014 0.00 DNP
74 87 Lance Lynn 2010 0.00 DNP
75 87 Kyle Weiland 2010 0.00 DNP
76 87 Omar Poveda 2011 0.00 DNP
77 87 Mark Reyes 2016 0.00 DNP
78 87 Francisco Rios 2018 0.00 DNP
79 87 Conner Greene 2018 0.00 DNP
80 87 Zachary Nuding 2013 0.00 DNP
81 87 Patrick Schuster 2014 0.00 DNP
82 87 Aaron Northcraft 2013 0.00 DNP
83 87 Neil Ramirez 2012 0.00 DNP
84 87 Michael Antonini 2009 0.00 DNP
85 87 Ranfi Casimiro 2016 0.00 DNP
86 87 Jon Gray 2015 5.75
87 87 Anthony Ranaudo 2013 0.00 DNP
88 87 John Gast 2012 0.00 DNP
89 87 Andrew Faulkner 2016 8.10
90 87 Ricardo Pinto 2017 8.49
91 87 Julio Rodriguez 2014 0.00 DNP
92 87 Ryan Berry 2012 0.00 DNP
93 86 Deck McGuire 2012 0.00 DNP
94 86 Kyle Lotzkar 2013 0.00 DNP
95 86 Jimmy Barthmaier 2007 0.00 DNP
96 86 Kyle Smith 2016 0.00 DNP
97 86 David Bromberg 2011 0.00 DNP
98 86 Michael Stutes 2010 0.00 DNP
99 86 Jeurys Familia 2013 4.22
100 86 Nick Adenhart 2010 0.00 DNP

BP Annual Player Comments

YearComment
2019  Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018 Where Alvarez's stateside debut in 2016 served largely to inflate the imaginations of ceiling hounds, 2017's follow-up campaign checked on the realities of a still-maturing 21-year-old. His high-end velocity remained among the easiest in all of the minors, and his slider still tantalized with bouts of dazzling bite, but his simple mechanics belied a peculiar inability to repeat his throwing motion and command the baseball consistently. The fastball lacked movement in larger doses, the slider came and went, and the changeup still lagged. Prospect development is rarely a linear endeavor, of course, and the sky-high ceiling is still thereā€”he's just tethered a bit tighter to the floor than anticipated a year ago.
2017 One of the farm system's crown jewels, Alvarez signed for $16 million, and the Dodgers paid nearly double that due to overage penalties. When you watch him throw, you suddenly understand their willingness to do so, as he peppers the zone with upper-90s fastballs that meander into the triple digits on occasion. He pairs this low-effort, high-velo offering with a slider that flashes plus and has gained consistency as he's found stability in his mechanics. His change lags significantly, but that's not uncommon at this stage of development. Given the potency of his top two offerings, it would be easy to think he's destined for the bullpen. However, his potential as a starter merits a lengthy rope for the development of a third pitch, something that will likely be a focus going forward. His ceiling is a top-of-the-rotation starter, making him a quality prospect the likes of which Dodgers fans haven't seen since...Julio Urias.
2016 The Dodgers made yet another international splash when they signed Cuban right-hander Yadier Alvarez to a $16 million deal last July. He's 19, throws in the upper 90s and has already received three MVP votes from confused St. Louis sportswriters.

BP Articles

Click here to see articles tagged with Yadier Alvarez

BP Chats

DateQuestionAnswer
2019-08-26 13:00:00 (link to chat)A non Gavin Lux related Dodgers question! Any idea what's going on with Yadier Alvarez? I know there were questions about his coachability last year and this season he only pitched in two games in April. Is it a serious injury or more?
(David from LA)
It's easy to say it's just the trials and tribulations of a pitching prospect, but it's also kind of the trials and tribulations of a pitching prospect. Especially one that throws so hard. Finding news on and injury stuff is pretty tough, too. I think he'll be more frustrating than not, but even in a limited sample this season, the strikeouts have been encouraging. (Mark Barry)
2019-07-09 12:00:00 (link to chat)When looking for lotto-ticket upside, whom of the following would you say is *least* likely to deliver that return: Will Craig, Yadier Alvarez, Akil Badoo, Lewis Thorpe, Josh Green, Gilberto Celestino or Steve Jennings?
(traindoggah from Maine)
What an interesting hodge podge. Alvarez has been a mess for long enough we are at the point where his 75th percentile outcome might not even be a major leaguer, yet you could still argue he has more upside than like Will Craig. Nevertheless, I'd still probably be okay cutting him out of that group. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2018-07-13 15:00:00 (link to chat)What kind of upside do you see in Yadier Alvarez?
(Keith from UNC)
Honestly I am pretty out on Alvarez now. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2017-09-18 23:00:00 (link to chat)OK, time to make some declarations with the MiLB season almost done. Biggest surprise (for better or worse) of any prospect this year? Why?
(Po Boy from NO)
Hmmm...I'll go with Yadier Alvarez's struggles to control the strike zone. He's still growing into his (large) body, so I'm not surprised he had *some* trouble with repeatability and inconsistent command in the here and now. But the delivery and the stuff is just so easy that I was a little surprised that he didn't demonstrate more feel and timing than he did. The delivery needs a better flow than it has, but perhaps we just need to wait a little longer until he harnesses his man body before we can start to see that.

Here's what I'm talking about w/r/t timing/command: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2YyLLMwJaU

On the positive side, it's hard not to point and devolve into profanity-laced marvel at what Ronald Acuna did this season. Kid's been an utter and complete monster, and I'm not sure anyone quite saw THAT level coming from him (or anybody), especially on the heels of injury last season. (Wilson Karaman)
2017-06-13 12:00:00 (link to chat)Yadier Alvarez has looked pretty bad this year. Ks are down, walks back up, ratios below average. Simply adjusting to high-A?
(Scott B. from Manvera, SC)
Has he looked bad or just performed badly? Reports I've seen are largely on track with what we knew about him before. Easy plus-plus velocity, flashes a nasty breaker, change in progress. Needs to be in the zone more. All of this was true before he started slow in high-a and all of it is true now. It's part of the development process. (Craig Goldstein)
2017-05-10 13:00:00 (link to chat)What's going on with Yadier Alvarez? Two no shows on days he's scheduled to start?
(Mike from California )
Two truths and a lie: I am not a prospects guy. He was drinking expensive booze the night before one game and golfing the day before the other, and they both gave him migraines. This is exactly the type of question that you should've given Jeffrey Paternostro last Thursday.
(I checked the minor league park factors at milb.com and I would say that if I were scheduled to start in Lancaster, High Desert, or Bakersfileld-HR park factors of 1.8, 1.5, and 1.4, respectively-I might seriously consider the migraine strategy)
Sorry, not a prospects guy. (Rob Mains)
2017-03-22 20:00:00 (link to chat)Who pitches more 2018 MLB innings? Alex Reyes or Yadier Alvarez?
(Chris from MD)
Hmmm, good question. Reyes should be back pretty darned close to the start of the season, and even if Alvarez is a 2018 MLB option, one would have to think that a.) the Dodgers are going to limit his innings something fierce and b.) he won't be up until after service time considerations.

So I'll take Reyes. (Jarrett Seidler)
2017-03-22 20:00:00 (link to chat)Better dynasty league option to draft: Yadier Alvarez or Jason Groome?
(Jquinton82 from NY)
We ranked Alvarez slightly higher on the real 101 but Groome slightly higher on the dynasty 101. I guess I'll go with Bret and Ben in that I think Groome has a higher probability to stick in the rotation and I think that's something that really matters for y'all. (Jarrett Seidler)
2017-01-06 13:00:00 (link to chat)Would it be fair to say that Yadier Alvarez has the same potential as Alex Reyes, as a possible front-line starter?
(Ron from Texarkana)
Ehhhhhhhhh, okay I can maybe see that, as long as we acknowledge that is much, much further down the line, and there is a lot more risk. (Jeffrey Paternostro)
2017-01-18 20:00:00 (link to chat)Yadier Alvarez has not been rated very high by anyone, possibly because of his age & limited performance. This guy was paid enormous money to sign relative to what other top prospects were signing for. Give us some projection and possible comps on the upside. Thanks.
(Cubbie Bear from CHI-TOWN)
Uhh, we just ranked him as the top prospect in one of the strongest farm systems in baseball. He could be a borderline SP1. (Bret Sayre)
2016-08-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)Is Yadier Alvarez the best prospect in the Dodgers system?
(DD from LA)
Not yet. I'd still say De Leon, Verdugo and Bellinger are ahead. At this point next year, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he was. (Christopher Crawford)
2016-08-18 13:00:00 (link to chat)Dylan Cease or Yadier Alvarez?
(BomboRiviera from Lancaster)
MAN. That's tough! It's so early in the morning, why are you asking me such tough questions!

Ya know what? I'm not choosing. I am passing. This is too hard.

Fine. Alvarez. (Christopher Crawford)
2016-06-09 13:00:00 (link to chat)Has there been any news updates on Yadier Alvarez, and do you like him or Sandy Alcantara more for a dynasty league?
(Ron from Texarkana)
Haven't heard much on Alvarez lately. I'll probably take Alcantara right now because of less volatility but Alvarez much higher upside. (Christopher Crawford)
2016-03-04 13:00:00 (link to chat)I need 1 more player for my fantasy minor league team. The choice is a SP prospect (Kolby Allard, Amir Garrett, Josh Hader, Grant Holmes, Yadier Alvarez or Dylan Cease), position player (Dominic Smith or Trent Clark) or lottery ticket (Willie Calhoun). Which SP and position player would you choose and also your overall pick, taking into account not only ceiling/floor but also proximity to the bigs (the closer the better).
(paladin from philippines)
I really like a bunch of those dudes. Calhoun can be a special hitter, but he's a butcher defensively and loses value if (when) he moves to the OF. Allard and Garrett are two really high-upside arms, and Alvarez could turn into any pitcher you can think of (good or bad). I probably go Clark there, but you've got options depending on what you're into. (Wilson Karaman)
2016-01-29 11:00:00 (link to chat)Would Lazarito have made the list if he had signed? Were Yadier Alvarez or Alfredo Rodriguez close to making the list?
(roarke from KC)
Yadier Alvarez is No. 78 on the list. Lazarito wouldn't have been on mine. (Top 101 Chat with Craig Goldstein)
2016-01-20 13:00:00 (link to chat)Who are your top 3 prospects from last years draft and recent int'l signings?
(mbeemsterboer from Wisconsin)
From the draft it'd be Brendan Rodgers, Dansby Swanson and Dillon Tate. From the international signings it'd be Yadier Alvarez, Eddy Julio Martinez and Vlad Guerrero, Jr. (Christopher Crawford)


BP Roundtables

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PITCHf/x Pitcher Profile

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