Baseball Prospectus

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Statistics For All Levels

Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 65)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	77	Yasiel Puig	2014	126
2	74	Miguel Cabrera	2006	151
3	74	Freddie Freeman	2013	142
4	74	Justin Upton	2011	136
5	73	Willie McCovey	1961	104
6	72	David Wright	2006	127
7	72	Carlos Correa	2018	98
8	71	Evan Longoria	2009	133
9	71	Bryce Harper	2016	118
10	71	Christian Yelich	2015	97
11	71	Anthony Rizzo	2013	107
12	70	Eddie Murray	1979	133
13	69	Rocky Colavito	1957	119
14	69	Don Hurst	1929	108
15	69	Jay Bruce	2010	118
16	68	Lou Gehrig	1926	130
17	68	Phil Plantier	1992	93
18	68	Jason Heyward	2013	108
19	68	Jimmie Foxx	1931	128
20	67	Eric Hosmer	2013	114
21	67	Wil Myers	2014	80
22	67	Mike Trout	2015	173
23	67	Jesus Montero	2013	92
24	67	Prince Fielder	2007	151
25	67	Travis Snider	2011	67
26	66	Kyle Schwarber	2016	77
27	66	Corey Seager	2017	115
28	66	Frank Robinson	1959	158
29	66	Boog Powell	1965	103
30	66	AJ Reed	2016	67
31	66	Jim Ray Hart	1965	133
32	65	Tony Conigliaro	1968	0	DNP
33	65	Dick Allen	1965	130
34	65	Jason Thompson	1978	126
35	65	Frank Thomas	1991	174
36	65	Ryan Zimmerman	2008	101
37	65	Kyle Blanks	2010	55
38	65	Ken Griffey	1993	166
39	64	Jon Singleton	2015	105
40	64	Bernie Carbo	1971	88
41	64	Jack Clark	1979	135
42	64	Jorge Soler	2015	83
43	64	Albert Pujols	2003	174
44	64	Chris Carter	2010	88
45	64	Greg Bird	2016	0	DNP
46	63	B.J. Upton	2008	106
47	63	Eddie Mathews	1955	144
48	63	Kent Hrbek	1983	121
49	63	Manny Machado	2016	131
50	63	Oswaldo Arcia	2014	105
51	63	Jeff Burroughs	1974	156
52	63	Matt Kemp	2008	106
53	63	Mel Ott	1932	143
54	63	Tom Brunansky	1984	129
55	62	Mickey Mantle	1955	159
56	62	Rafael Palmeiro	1988	114
57	62	Hank Aaron	1957	164
58	62	Bill Delancey	1935	88
59	62	Ian Happ	2018	88
60	62	Cal Ripken Jr.	1984	139
61	62	Troy Tulowitzki	2008	89
62	62	Domingo Santana	2016	91
63	62	Bob Horner	1981	131
64	62	Giancarlo Stanton	2013	131
65	62	Kal Daniels	1987	156
66	62	Cesar Cedeno	1974	129
67	62	Hal Trosky	1936	128
68	62	Joc Pederson	2015	108
69	62	Chris Davis	2009	87
70	62	Earl Williams	1972	120
71	61	Billy Conigliaro	1971	89
72	61	Gordon Beckham	2010	86
73	61	Pablo Sandoval	2010	96
74	61	John Olerud	1992	133
75	61	Addison Russell	2017	85
76	61	Manny Ramirez	1995	149
77	61	Michael Conforto	2016	90
78	61	John Milner	1973	121
79	61	Juan Gonzalez	1993	156
80	61	Willie Horton	1966	119
81	61	Roy Sievers	1950	73
82	61	Jerry Sands	2011	90
83	61	George Scott	1967	127
84	61	Barry Bonds	1988	141
85	60	Ellis Valentine	1978	131
86	60	Miguel Sano	2016	102
87	60	Darryl Strawberry	1985	160
88	60	Alex Rodriguez	1999	133
89	60	Al Kaline	1958	127
90	60	Eric Davis	1985	96
91	60	Rougned Odor	2017	75
92	60	Carlos May	1971	113
93	60	Johnny Bench	1971	112
94	60	Pete Reiser	1942	116
95	59	Billy Butler	2009	118
96	59	Andruw Jones	2000	124
97	59	Carlos Delgado	1995	68
98	59	Brett Lawrie	2013	99
99	59	Vern Stephens	1944	134
100	59	Grady Sizemore	2006	121

BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		While not quite on the level of Isaac Hayes rolling up in his chandelier-laden '77 Cadillac Fleetwood in Escape From New York, Bellinger nonetheless made an entrance for the ages. The scouting reports pretty much nailed the fundamentals: Where evaluators had wondered about Bellinger's ability to handle the high hard stuff with his long, uppercut swing, he did indeed whiff a ton up the ladder. But there was more than enough boom to offset the busts, as he slugged .602 against elevated pitches en route to taking the lunch money of NL hurlers of both left- and right-handed persuasion with startling consistency for five straight months after a late-April promotion. The plate discipline translated, too, and his rare speed and athleticism for a first baseman allowed for versatile deployment onto the outfield grass. Instant stardom at 21 is a tough act, but Bellinger sure looks the part of an A-Number One building block for the Dodgers.
2017		Bellinger entered the year coming off a 30-homer season at High-A, but saddled with questions regarding his strikeout rate and the validity of his Cal League power outburst. Asked and answered. Bellinger cut his strikeout rate by seven percentage points while moving up a level, yet much of the power came with him to Tulsa. He will still sell out to get to said power, but his hands and the leverage in his swing suggests the power can continue to translate up the chain. Bellinger isn't your standard first baseman no matter how you slice it. Every once in a Lance Berkman can a guy who mans the cold corner also patrol center field, but Bellinger can play there in a pinch and would be playable in either corner outfield spot as well. He's so good at first, though, that the Dodgers might be tempted to not test him further up the defensive spectrum. He enjoyed a taste of Triple-A by season's end and should spend the full season there in 2017. Whatever you do please don't call him "baellinger," even to your friends.
2016		Bellinger smashed 67 extra-base hits—including 30 homers—at Rancho Cucamonga last season. Any time someone hits that many bombs in this day and age we have to pay attention, but Bellinger mashed in the Cal League, which does to power output what gym class does to high school GPAs. Scouts seem convinced that some of Bellinger's pop is real, and spending 26 games in center field instead of at first base is a promising sign for his future. At the same time, striking out in over a quarter of your PAs is never ideal, and neither are reports about how Bellinger looks against breaking balls. He's the son of former big leaguer Clay Bellinger, and dad's best single-season homer output was just 16, so at least Cody has some bragging rights.

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