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Plate Discipline

Preseason Long-Term Forecast (Beyond the 2019 Projections)

Comparable Players (Similarity Index 65)

Rank	Score	Name	Year	DRC+	Trend
1	77	Yasiel Puig	2014	126
2	74	Miguel Cabrera	2006	151
3	74	Freddie Freeman	2013	142
4	74	Justin Upton	2011	136
5	73	Willie McCovey	1961	104
6	72	David Wright	2006	127
7	72	Carlos Correa	2018	98
8	71	Evan Longoria	2009	133
9	71	Bryce Harper	2016	118
10	71	Christian Yelich	2015	97

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BP Annual Player Comments

Year		Comment
2019		Due to publishing agreements, the 2019 player comments and team essays are only available in the Baseball Prospectus 2019 book (available in hardcopy, and soon e-book and Kindle).
2018		While not quite on the level of Isaac Hayes rolling up in his chandelier-laden '77 Cadillac Fleetwood in Escape From New York, Bellinger nonetheless made an entrance for the ages. The scouting reports pretty much nailed the fundamentals: Where evaluators had wondered about Bellinger's ability to handle the high hard stuff with his long, uppercut swing, he did indeed whiff a ton up the ladder. But there was more than enough boom to offset the busts, as he slugged .602 against elevated pitches en route to taking the lunch money of NL hurlers of both left- and right-handed persuasion with startling consistency for five straight months after a late-April promotion. The plate discipline translated, too, and his rare speed and athleticism for a first baseman allowed for versatile deployment onto the outfield grass. Instant stardom at 21 is a tough act, but Bellinger sure looks the part of an A-Number One building block for the Dodgers.
2017		Bellinger entered the year coming off a 30-homer season at High-A, but saddled with questions regarding his strikeout rate and the validity of his Cal League power outburst. Asked and answered. Bellinger cut his strikeout rate by seven percentage points while moving up a level, yet much of the power came with him to Tulsa. He will still sell out to get to said power, but his hands and the leverage in his swing suggests the power can continue to translate up the chain. Bellinger isn't your standard first baseman no matter how you slice it. Every once in a Lance Berkman can a guy who mans the cold corner also patrol center field, but Bellinger can play there in a pinch and would be playable in either corner outfield spot as well. He's so good at first, though, that the Dodgers might be tempted to not test him further up the defensive spectrum. He enjoyed a taste of Triple-A by season's end and should spend the full season there in 2017. Whatever you do please don't call him "baellinger," even to your friends.
2016		Bellinger smashed 67 extra-base hits—including 30 homers—at Rancho Cucamonga last season. Any time someone hits that many bombs in this day and age we have to pay attention, but Bellinger mashed in the Cal League, which does to power output what gym class does to high school GPAs. Scouts seem convinced that some of Bellinger's pop is real, and spending 26 games in center field instead of at first base is a promising sign for his future. At the same time, striking out in over a quarter of your PAs is never ideal, and neither are reports about how Bellinger looks against breaking balls. He's the son of former big leaguer Clay Bellinger, and dad's best single-season homer output was just 16, so at least Cody has some bragging rights.

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